FWP with Big Ben Out (1 Viewer)

[kal-el]

Big Ben missed three games last year. Here are the Pittsburgh RB stats in those games:

Player Carries-RushYd RushTD Rec-RecYd RecTD

Week 6: Vs. Jacksonville

Parker 21-55 0 0-0 0

Bettis 4-4 0 0-0 0

Haynes 2-neg1 0 1-11 0

TOTAL 27-58 1 1-11 0

Week 9: At Green Bay

Staley 15-76 1 2-9 0

Parker 5-13 0 1-10 0

Haynes 3-10 0 0-0 0

TOTAL 23-99 1 3-19 0

Week 10: Vs. Cleveland

Staley 17-64 0 2-16 0

Haynes 9-41 1 2-10 0

Bettis 9-28 1 0-0 0

TOTAL 35-133 2 4-26 0

So plenty of carries overall. Jacksonville shut the rushing game down (2.1 yards/rush). Good success vs. GB (5.0 yards/rush). Mediocre against Cleveland (3.8 yards/rush). Parker struggled in both the games he played in. I'm hesitant to start FWP against what should be an above-average Miami defense tonight.

What do other see in these stats? Or I am trying to read too much into a sample size of three games.

 

[Hellfire Snail]

Big Ben missed three games last year. Here are the Pittsburgh RB stats in those games:

Player Carries-RushYd RushTD Rec-RecYd RecTD

Week 6: Vs. Jacksonville

Parker 21-55 0 0-0 0

Bettis 4-4 0 0-0 0

Haynes 2-neg1 0 1-11 0

TOTAL 27-58 1 1-11 0

Week 9: At Green Bay

Staley 15-76 1 2-9 0

Parker 5-13 0 1-10 0

Haynes 3-10 0 0-0 0

TOTAL 23-99 1 3-19 0

Week 10: Vs. Cleveland

Staley 17-64 0 2-16 0

Haynes 9-41 1 2-10 0

Bettis 9-28 1 0-0 0

TOTAL 35-133 2 4-26 0

So plenty of carries overall. Jacksonville shut the rushing game down (2.1 yards/rush). Good success vs. GB (5.0 yards/rush). Mediocre against Cleveland (3.8 yards/rush). Parker struggled in both the games he played in. I'm hesitant to start FWP against what should be an above-average Miami defense tonight.

What do other see in these stats? Or I am trying to read too much into a sample size of three games.

It's a new season. It's at home. There is no Bettis and Staley split. Parker will be in at the goaline. He might not have a typical ypc tonight but I'm confident he'll put one in the endzone. 80 totals yards and a score. Good enough for me.

 

[CrossEyed]

I think Parker's mindset last year was "Just don't blow this opportunity." This year I see it as more of "OK, time to show what I can do." I think FWP is going to surprise a lot of people this year.

 

[eoMMan]

Yeah, and I think Charlie Batch will do a better job than Maddux did last year.

 

[Bankerguy]

Big Ben missed three games last year. Here are the Pittsburgh RB stats in those gameslayer Carries-RushYd RushTD Rec-RecYd RecTDWeek 6: Vs. JacksonvilleParker 21-55 0 0-0 0Bettis 4-4 0 0-0 0Haynes 2-neg1 0 1-11 0TOTAL 27-58 1 1-11 0Week 9: At Green BayStaley 15-76 1 2-9 0Parker 5-13 0 1-10 0Haynes 3-10 0 0-0 0TOTAL 23-99 1 3-19 0Week 10: Vs. ClevelandStaley 17-64 0 2-16 0Haynes 9-41 1 2-10 0Bettis 9-28 1 0-0 0TOTAL 35-133 2 4-26 0So plenty of carries overall. Jacksonville shut the rushing game down (2.1 yards/rush). Good success vs. GB (5.0 yards/rush). Mediocre against Cleveland (3.8 yards/rush). Parker struggled in both the games he played in. I'm hesitant to start FWP against what should be an above-average Miami defense tonight.What do other see in these stats? Or I am trying to read too much into a sample size of three games.

My take is:You make good points and most should be somewhat nervous about FWP with Ben out.However, it is too small a sample size to draw a definate conclusion. Intuitively though.....FWP takes a hit with Ben out.

 

[FBGirl79]

I've been going back and forth trying to decide if I want to start FWP tonight or S. Jax. I have Rudi as my RB1 and can't decide about RB2. I'm leaning towards FWP though with Batch in there but this is a tough call.

 

[einstein2u]

i am stuck too...i have ronnie or fwp....i am going ronnie.....hope he can punch one in.

 

[DolphinsPhan]

I am starting Thomas Jones over Parker FWIW. Congrats that Batch looked great in preseason, that doesn't mean squat. When was the last time he played decently in the regular season??? 8 Dolphins in the box all game...and if Ward is even slightly hindered, forget the passing game.

 

[Chase Stuart]

You missed the Baltimore game, week 11.

18/59, 22, 1

 

[CrossEyed]

I am starting Thomas Jones over Parker FWIW. Congrats that Batch looked great in preseason, that doesn't mean squat. When was the last time he played decently in the regular season??? 8 Dolphins in the box all game...and if Ward is even slightly hindered, forget the passing game.

Let's see....oh yeah, last year the Steelers were 2-0 when he started. And in week 10 he was 13 for 19 for 150 and added a rushing TD. I'd say that's decent

 

[Steelers4Life]

I think Parker's mindset last year was "Just don't blow this opportunity." This year I see it as more of "OK, time to show what I can do." I think FWP is going to surprise a lot of people this year.

Unfortunatley, if he has a bigger year than last year, I'll be one of the ones suprised. Pleasantly suprised, but suprised.I don't expect anything consistent from him tonight. He always has the chance to bust a long run, but I don't think he's going to fare well with 8 guys in the box all night. He hasn't really shown the ability to do that against a quality run defense yet. He failed to produce consistently against most of the better defenses he faced last year, and in the playoffs, aside from his long TD run in the Super Bowl, his YPC was around 2.5 on the other 55 carries. Before I really expect big things, I want to see him run consistently against a good run defense, because that's what the Steelers' offense needs.I love Willie, but I'm not as high on him for fantasy purposes as some are.

 

[Deranged Hermit]

I'm starting McGahee over him this week, but it's basicly a coin flip in my case.

 

[goldenchild]

I'm starting McGahee over him this week, but it's basicly a coin flip in my case.

I'm in the same predicament and am also starting McGahee over FWP.I'd feel better about it if McGahee was playing at home and FWP was playing at MIA...I took McGahee with my 2nd pick for a reason!!!

 

[Godsbrother]

I think a lot of people are going to surprised tonight if they believe the Steelers are going to be ultra-conservative with Batch at QB.

If the Dolphins put 8 in the box the Steelers are going to throw to keep them honest. It wouldn't surprise me to see the Steelers come out throwing, just to give something Miami to think about it.

As far as FWP goes, I think he will be in for a lot of runs with short gains and losses. But if Miami puts 8 in the box and FWP gets past them, he will be gone. This game could be a lot like the SB where he is averaging 2.5 yds/carry and then busts off a 50+ yard run.

Parker is also a threat as a receiver -- I could see a few screens going for decent gains.

 

[redman]

I'm sure Steelers fans will crucify me for this, but I'm not high on them this year. It's as much gut feeling as anything else, but I don't like their running game at the moment, they're off to a bad start with Ben out due to the appendix, they're breaking in a new WR2 and have a starting RB who has an entirely different set of attributes than they've traditionally relied upon with Cowher, and they're probably as a result going to have to throw the ball more than they ever have under all of those circumstances.

Their defense and o-line are still solid to be sure and they certainly won't suck, but with Cincy and an improved (just because of McNair) Baltimore in their division I wonder about Pittsburgh making the playoffs this year. If this game tonight didn't have the Steelers at home, I'd think Miami would be a clear favorite and the Steelers may still lose this one.

I'm thinking a 9-7 type of a season for them with nobody from that offense but Ward worthy of starting for most fantasy teams.

 

[Steelers4Life]

I'm sure Steelers fans will crucify me for this, but I'm not high on them this year. It's as much gut feeling as anything else, but I don't like their running game at the moment, they're off to a bad start with Ben out due to the appendix, they're breaking in a new WR2 and have a starting RB who has an entirely different set of attributes than they've traditionally relied upon with Cowher, and they're probably as a result going to have to throw the ball more than they ever have under all of those circumstances. Their defense and o-line are still solid to be sure and they certainly won't suck, but with Cincy and an improved (just because of McNair) Baltimore in their division I wonder about Pittsburgh making the playoffs this year. If this game tonight didn't have the Steelers at home, I'd think Miami would be a clear favorite and the Steelers may still lose this one. I'm thinking a 9-7 type of a season for them with nobody from that offense but Ward worthy of starting for most fantasy teams.

You're obviously entitled to the opinion.I actually share your concerns about the running game, as I'm not sure that Parker can be the type of RB to get 3-4 yards no matter what. He'll bust some long runs, but I worry that against good defenses he leaves the offenses in 2nd and long situations too often. That's the type of RB this offense needs, and Bettis' contributions from last year were more than just on the goal-line. The depth behind Parker concerns me a lot too, because if Parker goes down, there are BIG problems.The thing is, for the first time under Cowher, the Steelers have a QB who CAN pass more and lead the team. Kordell couldn't. Tomczak couldn't. Maddox couldn't. But Ben can, and his weapons in the passing game are more than good enough. Nothing on the defensive side of the ball concerns me at all. It's a great defense.Sure, it'll be more challenging. But realistically, the Steelers were a couple games better than the Bengals in the regular season last year if Ben hadn't missed 4 games, and there was even more of a difference between them and the Ravens. Have they both caught up? I guess we'll see, but I'll be shocked if the Steelers don't win 10+ games this year.

 

[redman]

I'm sure Steelers fans will crucify me for this, but I'm not high on them this year. It's as much gut feeling as anything else, but I don't like their running game at the moment, they're off to a bad start with Ben out due to the appendix, they're breaking in a new WR2 and have a starting RB who has an entirely different set of attributes than they've traditionally relied upon with Cowher, and they're probably as a result going to have to throw the ball more than they ever have under all of those circumstances.

Their defense and o-line are still solid to be sure and they certainly won't suck, but with Cincy and an improved (just because of McNair) Baltimore in their division I wonder about Pittsburgh making the playoffs this year. If this game tonight didn't have the Steelers at home, I'd think Miami would be a clear favorite and the Steelers may still lose this one.

I'm thinking a 9-7 type of a season for them with nobody from that offense but Ward worthy of starting for most fantasy teams.

You're obviously entitled to the opinion.I actually share your concerns about the running game, as I'm not sure that Parker can be the type of RB to get 3-4 yards no matter what. He'll bust some long runs, but I worry that against good defenses he leaves the offenses in 2nd and long situations too often. That's the type of RB this offense needs, and Bettis' contributions from last year were more than just on the goal-line. The depth behind Parker concerns me a lot too, because if Parker goes down, there are BIG problems.

The thing is, for the first time under Cowher, the Steelers have a QB who CAN pass more and lead the team. Kordell couldn't. Tomczak couldn't. Maddox couldn't. But Ben can, and his weapons in the passing game are more than good enough.

Nothing on the defensive side of the ball concerns me at all. It's a great defense.

Sure, it'll be more challenging. But realistically, the Steelers were a couple games better than the Bengals in the regular season last year if Ben hadn't missed 4 games, and there was even more of a difference between them and the Ravens. Have they both caught up? I guess we'll see, but I'll be shocked if the Steelers don't win 10+ games this year.

I agree Ben is better equipped to pass than anyone Cowher's had before. No doubt about that. He should pass more just as a natural product of his maturation as a QB. The trouble is that his WR corps is as thin now (at least in terms of proven NFL talent) as it has been in the last 5-6 years. That division is no cakewalk anymore, and you'll notice that those other three teams are either coached by former defensive coordinators (Cincy, Cleveland) or most noteworthy for their defense (Baltimore). We also forget because of NE's success perhaps how tough it is to be successful following a championship year.

I'm not going to say you can't be right. Pittsburgh absolutely could win this division. However I also think that they could just as easily finish 3rd behind Cincy and Baltimore. And like I said, I think this offense is going to have its growing pains this year.

 

[Steelers4Life]

I'm sure Steelers fans will crucify me for this, but I'm not high on them this year. It's as much gut feeling as anything else, but I don't like their running game at the moment, they're off to a bad start with Ben out due to the appendix, they're breaking in a new WR2 and have a starting RB who has an entirely different set of attributes than they've traditionally relied upon with Cowher, and they're probably as a result going to have to throw the ball more than they ever have under all of those circumstances.

Their defense and o-line are still solid to be sure and they certainly won't suck, but with Cincy and an improved (just because of McNair) Baltimore in their division I wonder about Pittsburgh making the playoffs this year. If this game tonight didn't have the Steelers at home, I'd think Miami would be a clear favorite and the Steelers may still lose this one.

I'm thinking a 9-7 type of a season for them with nobody from that offense but Ward worthy of starting for most fantasy teams.

You're obviously entitled to the opinion.I actually share your concerns about the running game, as I'm not sure that Parker can be the type of RB to get 3-4 yards no matter what. He'll bust some long runs, but I worry that against good defenses he leaves the offenses in 2nd and long situations too often. That's the type of RB this offense needs, and Bettis' contributions from last year were more than just on the goal-line. The depth behind Parker concerns me a lot too, because if Parker goes down, there are BIG problems.

The thing is, for the first time under Cowher, the Steelers have a QB who CAN pass more and lead the team. Kordell couldn't. Tomczak couldn't. Maddox couldn't. But Ben can, and his weapons in the passing game are more than good enough.

Nothing on the defensive side of the ball concerns me at all. It's a great defense.

Sure, it'll be more challenging. But realistically, the Steelers were a couple games better than the Bengals in the regular season last year if Ben hadn't missed 4 games, and there was even more of a difference between them and the Ravens. Have they both caught up? I guess we'll see, but I'll be shocked if the Steelers don't win 10+ games this year.

I agree Ben is better equipped to pass than anyone Cowher's had before. No doubt about that. He should pass more just as a natural product of his maturation as a QB. The trouble is that his WR corps is as thin now (at least in terms of proven NFL talent) as it has been in the last 5-6 years. That division is no cakewalk anymore, and you'll notice that those other three teams are either coached by former defensive coordinators (Cincy, Cleveland) or most noteworthy for their defense (Baltimore). We also forget because of NE's success perhaps how tough it is to be successful following a championship year.

I'm not going to say you can't be right. Pittsburgh absolutely could win this division. However I also think that they could just as easily finish 3rd behind Cincy and Baltimore. And like I said, I think this offense is going to have its growing pains this year.

I disagree about the depth of the WRs, assuming Ward is healthy. Wilson is every bit as talented a WR as Randle El was - what they lose with Randle El is the gadget plays. After them, I don't see Washington and Holmes being any less talented as the guys they've had in the past. The division is definitely tougher. No one should think it's going to be easy to have success the year after a Super Bowl championship, and it's going to be at least a two team and maybe a three team battle in the AFC North.

 

[kal-el]

You missed the Baltimore game, week 11.18/59, 22, 1

Good catch. Full stats w/ Ben out below.Week 6: Vs. JacksonvilleParker 21-55 0 0-0 0Bettis 4-4 0 0-0 0Haynes 2-neg1 0 1-11 0TOTAL 27-58 0 1-11 0Week 9: At Green BayStaley 15-76 1 2-9 0Parker 5-13 0 1-10 0Haynes 3-10 0 0-0 0TOTAL 23-99 1 3-19 0Week 10: Vs. ClevelandStaley 17-64 0 2-16 0Haynes 9-41 1 2-10 0Bettis 9-28 1 0-0 0TOTAL 35-133 2 4-26 0Week 11: At BaltimoreParker 18-59 0 2-22 1Bettis 2-0 0 0-0 0Haynes 1-0 0 1-17 0TOTAL 21-59 0 3-39 1Totals for four weeksParker 44-127 0 3-32 1 (2.9 yds/carry)Other RBs 62-222 8-63 0 (3.6 yds/carry)TOTAL 106-349 3 11-95 1 (3.3 yrds/carry) Those are pretty low yards/carry numbers for a team that averaged 4.0 yards/carry over the entire season--with Parker averaging 4.7 yard/carry over the entire season.Leaning against starting him. Other option is Ronnie Brown.

 

[Godsbrother]

I'm sure Steelers fans will crucify me for this, but I'm not high on them this year. It's as much gut feeling as anything else, but I don't like their running game at the moment, they're off to a bad start with Ben out due to the appendix, they're breaking in a new WR2 and have a starting RB who has an entirely different set of attributes than they've traditionally relied upon with Cowher, and they're probably as a result going to have to throw the ball more than they ever have under all of those circumstances. Their defense and o-line are still solid to be sure and they certainly won't suck, but with Cincy and an improved (just because of McNair) Baltimore in their division I wonder about Pittsburgh making the playoffs this year. If this game tonight didn't have the Steelers at home, I'd think Miami would be a clear favorite and the Steelers may still lose this one. I'm thinking a 9-7 type of a season for them with nobody from that offense but Ward worthy of starting for most fantasy teams.

The Steelers could be in for a down year but I think they'll still make the playoffs. Let me address your points:1) The running game is pretty much the same as last year. Parker started last season for the first time since high school and responded with 1400+ total yards. I think he's only going to get better. The Steelers will miss Bettis but he only ran for 368 yards and averaged 3.3 ypc. I think Haynes/Staley/Cobbs are capable of doing that. He did have 9 TDs but if he is not there someone else's TD totals will go up. 2) Ben's appendix operation will keep him out of 1 or 2 games, max. He missed 4 games last season and the Steelers were 11-5. In training camp and during the preseason Ben looked great and the Steelers were reportedly going to open up the offense for him.3) Breaking in a new WR2? I don't think so-- Wilson & Randel El split time as WR2 and by the end of the season it was all Wilson. Wilson is in his second year with the Steelers so he should be better.4) The Steelers have the same starting RB as last season so I am not sure where you are coming from here.5) The Bengals are the divsion champs and will be tough but remember they are playing a much more difficult schedule this season than last so they aren't going to have smooth sailing either. Steve McNair is a major improvement for Baltimore and if he stays healthy they are legitimate contenders in the division. But Balt's o-line is suspect, the jury is still out on whether Jamal Lewis can be effective, and their defense is getting old.I don't think 9-7 is a crazy prediction but I think the Steelers are a very solid team. I see 11-5 again.

 

[Brock Middlebrook]

As a V. Haynes owner I hope they feed FWP the ball early and very often.

 

[Black Label Society]

So, would you start him over either McGahee or Tiki?

 

[corpcow]

I've been going back and forth trying to decide if I want to start FWP tonight or S. Jax. I have Rudi as my RB1 and can't decide about RB2. I'm leaning towards FWP though with Batch in there but this is a tough call.

--------------------10 Team Work League -----------------------------------------------------QB - Matt Hasselbeck, Jake DelhommeRB - Steven Jackson, Rudi Johnson, Willie Parker, Frank Gore, Mike Bell, Marion Barber IIIWR- Anquan Boldin, Donald Driver, T.J. Houshmandzadeh, Michael Clayton, Antonio BryantTE- Jason WittenK - David Akers, Matt StoverDEF - Tampa Bay

Hell of a draft there. I wish I could get something similar in my money league Would I start him over S.Jax? Maybe, with Jackson's injury. Over McGahee? Close. Over Tiki? Definitely not.The thing is it's unlikely he's your legitimate RB3 in most serious leagues, especially in 12 team leagues.

 

[corpcow]

As a V. Haynes owner I hope they feed FWP the ball early and very often.

 

[oswizzle]

FWP is gonna get 25+ carries tonight...he will break a couple long ones he'll rush for over 100 yards

 

[Bobcat10]

Since some think Miami will have "eight in the box" for much of the game, and some think FWP is a RB that can bust a big run at any time....wouldn't it be easier to bust a long run against a defense like this? One mistake or missed read be a player or two on defense, and/or just some great blocking on one play, and Parker has about one guy to beat..if that. Of course over the length of the game "eight in the box" should win most battles against the other teams running game, but it seems it could also backfire and give up a big play. FWP will not likely be ripping off 7yds every carry.

Just thinkin' out loud here...nothing to back this up.

 

[redman]

Since some think Miami will have "eight in the box" for much of the game, and some think FWP is a RB that can bust a big run at any time....wouldn't it be easier to bust a long run against a defense like this? One mistake or missed read be a player or two on defense, and/or just some great blocking on one play, and Parker has about one guy to beat..if that. Of course over the length of the game "eight in the box" should win most battles against the other teams running game, but it seems it could also backfire and give up a big play. FWP will not likely be ripping off 7yds every carry.

Just thinkin' out loud here...nothing to back this up.

The guy who may be interesting in this game is Heath Miller. Still, I do not like Batch under center and this could be one of those ugly 10-7 games with Batch throwing for 125 yards or something.

 

[bizkliz]

The guy who may be interesting in this game is Heath Miller.

i agree. i'll be at the game tonight and i fully expect to see the 'fins stack the box and make batch beat 'em. i'm hoping for a consistent (read: no fumbles, at least 3.0 ypc w/ no negative carries) game both running and recieving from fwp, but unless he tears off a long one, i only see his numbers being somewhat pedestrian.

miller on the other hand should be huge beneficiary as long as the steelers send him out. id hate to see him in blocking the entire time as much as id hate to see batch throwing downfield. if properly prrepared offensively, i think the steelers can dink and dunk their way down into 'fins territory all day. miller HAS to get involved.

either way, the steelers play stout defense and win 19-7.

-biz-

 

[fridayfrenzy]

FWP average in season openers....

161 Rushing Yards

1 Rushing TD

48 Receiving Yards

 

[paz1]

FWP average in season openers....161 Rushing Yards 1 Rushing TD 48 Receiving Yards

And the data sample size for that is how big?

 

[redman]

FWP average in season openers....161 Rushing Yards 1 Rushing TD 48 Receiving Yards

And the data sample size for that is how big?

1 game, at home, vs. the 2005 Tennessee Titans defense. Final score, 34-7 Pittsburgh. His four other 100 yard games were all against teams with losing records, the sole excepting being Cincy in week 7 last year.

 

[kal-el]

FWP average in season openers....161 Rushing Yards 1 Rushing TD 48 Receiving Yards

And the data sample size for that is how big?

1 game, at home, vs. the 2005 Tennessee Titans defense. Final score, 34-7 Pittsburgh. His four other 100 yard games were all against teams with losing records, the sole excepting being Cincy in week 7 last year.

So last year he tended to perform well in games when (1) they were playing a weak opponent and (2) Big Ben was in the lineup. Tonight he plays in a game when (1) they're playing what everyone expects to be a strong opponent and (2) Big Ben is not in the lineup.This is enough for me to start Ronnie Brown and Steven Jackson over him. It's probably a coin flip decision, but there's enough here to go to the default position of starting my top two guys--especially in week 1 of a new season.

 

[Lemmiwinks]

I'm starting Parker over Chester Taylor, if that helps.

For some reason, I don't have the options of choosing between Ronnie Brown, S-Jax, Tiki, Parker, Gore and 5 other legit starting RB's.

How the hell do you get so many solid backs?

On my team in an 8 team league, FWP is paired with R. Brown and Westy at flex with Chester on the bench. I thought I had good RB depth...

 

[kal-el]

I'm starting Parker over Chester Taylor, if that helps.For some reason, I don't have the options of choosing between Ronnie Brown, S-Jax, Tiki, Parker, Gore and 5 other legit starting RB's.How the hell do you get so many solid backs?On my team in an 8 team league, FWP is paired with R. Brown and Westy at flex with Chester on the bench. I thought I had good RB depth...

Two-keeper league. Brown and Jackson were my keepers. Parker fell to me in the first round.

 

[Lemmiwinks]

I'm starting Parker over Chester Taylor, if that helps.For some reason, I don't have the options of choosing between Ronnie Brown, S-Jax, Tiki, Parker, Gore and 5 other legit starting RB's.How the hell do you get so many solid backs?On my team in an 8 team league, FWP is paired with R. Brown and Westy at flex with Chester on the bench. I thought I had good RB depth...

Two-keeper league. Brown and Jackson were my keepers. Parker fell to me in the first round.

Makes sense.

 

[oswizzle]

i'm starting Parker over Lamont Jordan...dont be scared bro..he's gonna touch the rock alot! Miami's D is nothing special...Pitts O-Line will help Parker put it down..Plus Daunte Int Machine Culpepper is gonna throw some duds and if they pick it off near the Goal Line its Willie time

 

[redman]

I'm sure Steelers fans will crucify me for this, but I'm not high on them this year. It's as much gut feeling as anything else, but I don't like their running game at the moment, they're off to a bad start with Ben out due to the appendix, they're breaking in a new WR2 and have a starting RB who has an entirely different set of attributes than they've traditionally relied upon with Cowher, and they're probably as a result going to have to throw the ball more than they ever have under all of those circumstances. Their defense and o-line are still solid to be sure and they certainly won't suck, but with Cincy and an improved (just because of McNair) Baltimore in their division I wonder about Pittsburgh making the playoffs this year. If this game tonight didn't have the Steelers at home, I'd think Miami would be a clear favorite and the Steelers may still lose this one. I'm thinking a 9-7 type of a season for them with nobody from that offense but Ward worthy of starting for most fantasy teams.

The Steelers could be in for a down year but I think they'll still make the playoffs. Let me address your points:1) The running game is pretty much the same as last year. Parker started last season for the first time since high school and responded with 1400+ total yards. I think he's only going to get better. The Steelers will miss Bettis but he only ran for 368 yards and averaged 3.3 ypc. I think Haynes/Staley/Cobbs are capable of doing that. He did have 9 TDs but if he is not there someone else's TD totals will go up. 2) Ben's appendix operation will keep him out of 1 or 2 games, max. He missed 4 games last season and the Steelers were 11-5. In training camp and during the preseason Ben looked great and the Steelers were reportedly going to open up the offense for him.3) Breaking in a new WR2? I don't think so-- Wilson & Randel El split time as WR2 and by the end of the season it was all Wilson. Wilson is in his second year with the Steelers so he should be better.4) The Steelers have the same starting RB as last season so I am not sure where you are coming from here.5) The Bengals are the divsion champs and will be tough but remember they are playing a much more difficult schedule this season than last so they aren't going to have smooth sailing either. Steve McNair is a major improvement for Baltimore and if he stays healthy they are legitimate contenders in the division. But Balt's o-line is suspect, the jury is still out on whether Jamal Lewis can be effective, and their defense is getting old.I don't think 9-7 is a crazy prediction but I think the Steelers are a very solid team. I see 11-5 again.

Well, the only thing I was right about tonight was Heath Miller. Fast Willie ran a rugged game for them, and ended up with a Bettis-like stat line. Batch threw 3 freaking TD's! And of course the defense was solid, though it gave up some big plays. If tonight's an indication, they'll be better than 9-7.