Going into draft as underdog w/ bad Keepers (1 Viewer)

[faux_bear]

Ok, so perhaps many in this forum (like myself) are going into their draft and feeling like they are immediately heavy underdogs due to the fact that others in their league have much stronger keepers. Perhaps you not only are unfortunate to not have good keepers, but also got unlucky and drew a low draft slot.

When looking at my low draft position, and the fact that other guys are starting off with superior RB's, I am feeling much more tempted to gun for it all and make what most would consider risky/high upside picks. Perhaps even make the dubious decisions to snag guys like Adrian Peterson in the 2nd round, Brandon Jackson in the 4th, and/or Santonio holmes in the 6th, all signifincatly ahead of their ADP.

My reasoning is that playing it safe and taking the best available players whenever my turn comes around will likely lead to a mediocre/below average team at best. While I may raise some eyebrows over the course of the draft, and perhaps even completely tank this season, I am afraid that taking high-upside guys perhaps a little ahead of their ADP would give me the only chance to win. Given that of course, they end up outproducing their ADP.

I know that the devil is in the details, and everyone's situation is different, but I'm wondering if any of you guys that may be in a similar boat as me are feeling the same way. That is, that making the "logical" picks when it comes to your turn would almost certainly lead to a losing team.

 

[Mystery Achiever]

do you have to declare a keeper? I am in a keep one league and have to throw back a couple of round 1 rb's. i know at least one person is not keeping anyone because my "extra" guys would go ahead of his top player. even with a low draft slot, you might do okay in this scenario if most keep someone.

 

[BusMan]

I definitely think the high risk/reward strategy is the way to go. You might strike out, but then again, you were planning on doing that anyway. Might as well swing for the fences. Yuck...I hate that I just used two baseball analogies.

 

[thebestupsman]

Ok, so perhaps many in this forum (like myself) are going into their draft and feeling like they are immediately heavy underdogs due to the fact that others in their league have much stronger keepers. Perhaps you not only are unfortunate to not have good keepers, but also got unlucky and drew a low draft slot.When looking at my low draft position, and the fact that other guys are starting off with superior RB's, I am feeling much more tempted to gun for it all and make what most would consider risky/high upside picks. Perhaps even make the dubious decisions to snag guys like Adrian Peterson in the 2nd round, Brandon Jackson in the 4th, and/or Santonio holmes in the 6th, all signifincatly ahead of their ADP.My reasoning is that playing it safe and taking the best available players whenever my turn comes around will likely lead to a mediocre/below average team at best. While I may raise some eyebrows over the course of the draft, and perhaps even completely tank this season, I am afraid that taking high-upside guys perhaps a little ahead of their ADP would give me the only chance to win. Given that of course, they end up outproducing their ADP.I know that the devil is in the details, and everyone's situation is different, but I'm wondering if any of you guys that may be in a similar boat as me are feeling the same way. That is, that making the "logical" picks when it comes to your turn would almost certainly lead to a losing team.

How many does your league keep?

 

[SSOG]

Try and trade for players that other teams aren't going to be able to keep. You should be able to get a solid discount (because they're happy to even get anything for a player they'd otherwise put back in the pool).

 

[TheDawg]

Ok, so perhaps many in this forum (like myself) are going into their draft and feeling like they are immediately heavy underdogs due to the fact that others in their league have much stronger keepers. Perhaps you not only are unfortunate to not have good keepers, but also got unlucky and drew a low draft slot.When looking at my low draft position, and the fact that other guys are starting off with superior RB's, I am feeling much more tempted to gun for it all and make what most would consider risky/high upside picks. Perhaps even make the dubious decisions to snag guys like Adrian Peterson in the 2nd round, Brandon Jackson in the 4th, and/or Santonio holmes in the 6th, all signifincatly ahead of their ADP.My reasoning is that playing it safe and taking the best available players whenever my turn comes around will likely lead to a mediocre/below average team at best. While I may raise some eyebrows over the course of the draft, and perhaps even completely tank this season, I am afraid that taking high-upside guys perhaps a little ahead of their ADP would give me the only chance to win. Given that of course, they end up outproducing their ADP.I know that the devil is in the details, and everyone's situation is different, but I'm wondering if any of you guys that may be in a similar boat as me are feeling the same way. That is, that making the "logical" picks when it comes to your turn would almost certainly lead to a losing team.

Dude, I'm in a very similar situation this year. I think with the young talent out there, this is the year to rebuild. I'll be swinging for the fences with ADP and other quality youngsters as well. I may be tanking this year, but I'll be setting a nice foundation for the future.

Same Position here. We had our draft and I went out and got top talent at QB and WR and swung for the fences on young RBs filled only with hope and promise like MJD, Jacobs and Norwood. Might be the eventual noose around my neck, but I'm hoping to compete and to have a couple of keepers next year.

 

[WhoDat]

Try and trade for players that other teams aren't going to be able to keep. You should be able to get a solid discount (because they're happy to even get anything for a player they'd otherwise put back in the pool).

Great advice and that type of transaction is normally painless and easy to accomplish. Also, the quickest way to get back on track in a keeper league.

 

[GridironMenace]

To the OP: I don't understand the logic. You are saying that you are going to draft players, purposely ahead of their ADP, in hopes that they outperform their current ADP. My math tells me that even if those players outperform their ADP, since you are already drafting them ahead of their ADP, you are seriously crippling their value. If you are going to draft AP in the 2nd round how much more value can a rookie RB in a RBBC situation, on a bad team have? The answer is none. Now if you draft him in the 4th an he outperforms his ADP then you would get 2nd round value out of your 4th round pick. That is how you win. The name of the game is to draft value. I'm sorry, but regardless of keepers, reaching for players is going to get you nowhere closer to the championship or even a playoff berth...ever.

 

[faux_bear]

Good point Gridiron. But I'm having a hard time figuring out how to draft when the guy keeping Maroney gets to draft SJax, and the guy keeping Addai gets to draft FWP or Westbrook, and the guy keeping Benson gets to draft Larry Johnson... and here I am with the 10th pick, knowing that the best RB available to me will likely be McGahee or MJD or Ronnie Brown...

so what I'm saying is that a conventional draft...that is, taking McGahee in round 1...then maybe Ronnie Brown or MJD in round 2, will leave me squarely in the bottom half of the league coming out of the draft...with a lineup that everyone will be eager to play week in and week out.

so if you know that a conventional draft will leave you with a pathetic lineup, why not take big chances on up and coming players?

 

[chris1969]

Ok, so perhaps many in this forum (like myself) are going into their draft and feeling like they are immediately heavy underdogs due to the fact that others in their league have much stronger keepers. Perhaps you not only are unfortunate to not have good keepers, but also got unlucky and drew a low draft slot.When looking at my low draft position, and the fact that other guys are starting off with superior RB's, I am feeling much more tempted to gun for it all and make what most would consider risky/high upside picks. Perhaps even make the dubious decisions to snag guys like Adrian Peterson in the 2nd round, Brandon Jackson in the 4th, and/or Santonio holmes in the 6th, all signifincatly ahead of their ADP.My reasoning is that playing it safe and taking the best available players whenever my turn comes around will likely lead to a mediocre/below average team at best. While I may raise some eyebrows over the course of the draft, and perhaps even completely tank this season, I am afraid that taking high-upside guys perhaps a little ahead of their ADP would give me the only chance to win. Given that of course, they end up outproducing their ADP.I know that the devil is in the details, and everyone's situation is different, but I'm wondering if any of you guys that may be in a similar boat as me are feeling the same way. That is, that making the "logical" picks when it comes to your turn would almost certainly lead to a losing team.

Step 1 Start making trade offers for other teams castoffs, you can usually find at least 1 or 2 teams that have more good guys than they can keep.Step 2 Plan on drafting K and Def with your last 2 picks.Step 3 DO NOT, I REPEAT, DO NOT REACH IN THE FIRST 6 ROUNDS! Take the value pick every time. There will be plenty of high upside players that will fall.Step 4 Start looking for a value QB around Round 6 and if you can get away with it, don't draft a back-up. Also only take 1 TE if you can.Step 5 Draft RB and WR with as many picks as you can. Stockpile like crazy! Taking a lot sleepers is like buying raffle tickets, the more chances you have the better your odds are. Some of these guys will probably bust right away and that's ok. There will be other guys that pop up early in the season as well.Step 6 About the normal time that you abandon VBD start taking shots at sleepers, but don't overlook value guys that fall a lot. You can take more and more risks as the draft progresses.Step 7 Know what back-up QB's, TE's, Def's, and K's should be Free Agents after the draft.Step 8 Do more homework in the first 4 weeks than the other guys. Read the game threads for every game. Look for the guys that others will miss. Your waiver pick-ups in the first few weeks can set you aprt from the other guys.I've taken over more than my fair share of abandoned teams in my time. and the above strategy usually works pretty well for me. You have to work a lot harder than the other guys on the waiver wire, but it'll pay off in the end.

 

[BGP]

Sounds to me like the issue here is everyone is undervaluing Ronnie Brown. Grab him!

 

[hove]

Step 5 Draft RB and WR with as many picks as you can. Stockpile like crazy! Taking a lot sleepers is like buying raffle tickets, the more chances you have the better your odds are. Some of these guys will probably bust right away and that's ok. There will be other guys that pop up early in the season as well.

Step 8 Do more homework in the first 4 weeks than the other guys. Read the game threads for every game. Look for the guys that others will miss. Your waiver pick-ups in the first few weeks can set you aprt from the other guys.

The two keys to it all, right there. Great post.

 

[SSOG]

To the OP: I don't understand the logic. You are saying that you are going to draft players, purposely ahead of their ADP, in hopes that they outperform their current ADP. My math tells me that even if those players outperform their ADP, since you are already drafting them ahead of their ADP, you are seriously crippling their value. If you are going to draft AP in the 2nd round how much more value can a rookie RB in a RBBC situation, on a bad team have? The answer is none. Now if you draft him in the 4th an he outperforms his ADP then you would get 2nd round value out of your 4th round pick. That is how you win. The name of the game is to draft value. I'm sorry, but regardless of keepers, reaching for players is going to get you nowhere closer to the championship or even a playoff berth...ever.

Normally I'd agree, but keeper leagues can be an exception if you're reaching based solely on Year N+1 value. Michael Turner is a great example of this- if you're playing for this year, taking Turner higher than the 10th-12th is a waste of a pick... but if you're playing for next year, then suddenly it's not entirely ludicrous to grab Turner within the first 5 rounds (or however late you think you can wait while still being able to nab him). "Reach" on players like Turner, Norwood, and MBIII who are going to have more value next year than they will this year. You wind up crippling your team even more in the short run, but it's a quick way to get healthy in the long run.Personally, I'd always keep an eye to the future, but there are too many ways to field a competitive team IMMEDIATELY for me to ever abandon a season as lost before the opening kickoff.

 

[Real Man of Genius]

Ok, so perhaps many in this forum (like myself) are going into their draft and feeling like they are immediately heavy underdogs due to the fact that others in their league have much stronger keepers. Perhaps you not only are unfortunate to not have good keepers, but also got unlucky and drew a low draft slot.When looking at my low draft position, and the fact that other guys are starting off with superior RB's, I am feeling much more tempted to gun for it all and make what most would consider risky/high upside picks. Perhaps even make the dubious decisions to snag guys like Adrian Peterson in the 2nd round, Brandon Jackson in the 4th, and/or Santonio holmes in the 6th, all signifincatly ahead of their ADP.My reasoning is that playing it safe and taking the best available players whenever my turn comes around will likely lead to a mediocre/below average team at best. While I may raise some eyebrows over the course of the draft, and perhaps even completely tank this season, I am afraid that taking high-upside guys perhaps a little ahead of their ADP would give me the only chance to win. Given that of course, they end up outproducing their ADP.I know that the devil is in the details, and everyone's situation is different, but I'm wondering if any of you guys that may be in a similar boat as me are feeling the same way. That is, that making the "logical" picks when it comes to your turn would almost certainly lead to a losing team.

Dude, I'm in a very similar situation this year. I think with the young talent out there, this is the year to rebuild. I'll be swinging for the fences with ADP and other quality youngsters as well. I may be tanking this year, but I'll be setting a nice foundation for the future.

 

[CYP]

Talk about underdog. We have two keepers. I have Rudi Johnson and MJD as my keepers though may switch one to Reggie Wayne. Anyway, I dont even have a 2nd round pick.

My plan is to draft tons of WR, RB and draft a lot based on potential. Thats one of the reasons Im keeping MJD because of the potential.

Not much else you can do. Stockpile, draft tons of potential and wait.

 

[Neil Beaufort Zod]

Try and trade for players that other teams aren't going to be able to keep. You should be able to get a solid discount (because they're happy to even get anything for a player they'd otherwise put back in the pool).

I took over the absolute worst team in a league several years ago and turned them into a middle-of-the-pack team in about a week. Okay, that doesn't sound awesome, but it was a respectable way to begin the season. People really are happy to find something for free (they can't keep the guy anyway) so it's a win/win. Plus, you build a little camaraderie with owners that could help swing trades down the road. I did win the league that year because I got lucky with my draft picks and some waiver choices, but the solid keepers are what kept me in the race throughout the season. Other people's trash can definitely be your treasure. Good luck.