GroveDiesel
Footballguy
What QB not only leads the NFL in passing TDs, but is also 5th in QB rushing yards?
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Good example of stats lying (1 Viewer)
- Thread starter GroveDiesel
- Start date
Gawain
Footballguy
Putting your avatar together with the fact I've started him, I'm going with Fitzpatrick.
Edit to add: Not sure why you think the stats lie though. He had a disastrous first half against the Jets, but after the first 30 minutes of the season he has been playing good ball.
Edit to add: Not sure why you think the stats lie though. He had a disastrous first half against the Jets, but after the first 30 minutes of the season he has been playing good ball.
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Ignoratio Elenchi
Footballguy
Looks like Matt Ryan and Ryan Fitzpatrick are tied for the leauge lead in passing TDs. Matt Ryan is 6th in rushing yards, and Fitzpatrick is 7th. I assume you were referring to Fitzpatrick, though I'm not sure how this is an example of "stats lying," unless you mean you were actually lying about his rushing stats.
packersfan
Footballguy
He's also passed for fewer than 400 yards in the first two games.Ryan Fitzpatrick baby.
12punch
Footballguy
packersfan
Footballguy
I think the point may be that despite not playing all that well or looking all that great Fitzpatrick leads the league in TD passes.
Correct me if I'm wrong, Grove.
Correct me if I'm wrong, Grove.
GroveDiesel
Footballguy
Exactly. We use TDs to judge players so often, but Fitz has been awful. The only reason he has as many TDs as he has is because they got so far behind due to his ineptitude Week 1 that they were forced to throw the ball and the Jets went into a prevent. Week 2, the running game set him up for most of his damage. His completion percentage was awful again and most of his damage was due either on busted coverages or Buffalo players making huge gains after the catch.
Reepicheep
Footballguy
Most rushing yards by QB since 2008:
Code:
Rk Player G Att Yds Y/A TD Y/G1 Michael Vick 39 217 1426 6.6 13 36.6 2 Aaron Rodgers 64 246 1157 4.7 16 18.1 3 Ryan Fitzpatrick 54 193 971 5.0 3 18.0Ignoratio Elenchi
Footballguy
But that's not an example of "stats lying." He really is leading the league in TD passes. So what if they came against the prevent defense, or busted coverages, or runs after the catch? So did a bunch of Eli Manning's passes on Sunday, and no one's complaining that his stats "lied." If someone was running around saying "Ryan Fitzpatrick has 5 TDs, therefore he is the best QB in the NFL," then you could argue that his TD total doesn't accurately reflect how good (or bad) of a QB he actually is. But I haven't heard anyone suggesting anything like that.
Cato
Footballguy
Whoa, for whatever reason, didn't realize this. Total blind spot.
Ghost Rider
Footballguy
I remember two years ago when the Broncos slaughtered the Chiefs (up 35-0 in the 2nd quarter), but thanks to tons of garbage time stat padding, Cassel ended up with 469 passing yards, 4 TD passes and 0 INTs. So, it looked like he had a great game, but he really didn't. Obviously, in FF, it all counts, but I think the point is that when it comes to measuring how good a player is for real, stats can sometimes be misleading, like in the case of Cassel there or Fitzpatrick in Week 1.
SameSongNDance
Footballguy
Doesn't Fitz do this yearly? As in, he performs well up until it gets colder out, which is around the time his noodle arm is exposed? If anything, this is an example of how the stats don't lie.
johnadams
Footballguy
Yeah, wow. Romo would have been my guess but Fitz wouldn't have registered at all.
12punch
Footballguy
more lies
Fitz has always been a pretty good runner. Where's the lie?
Is a 2-game sample size really enough to make any conclusions on?
I'm impressed that players like Aaron Rodgers, Drew Brees, and Tom Brady never benefit from busted coverages or players running after the catch.
BTW, he probably could have put up more points against the Chiefs if they didn't go up 35-3 midway through the 3rd quarter. Your blowout/prevent excuse from the Jets game works the other way too. Seems like he put up most of those stats in about 4 or 5 quarters of work.
Is a 2-game sample size really enough to make any conclusions on?
I'm impressed that players like Aaron Rodgers, Drew Brees, and Tom Brady never benefit from busted coverages or players running after the catch.
BTW, he probably could have put up more points against the Chiefs if they didn't go up 35-3 midway through the 3rd quarter. Your blowout/prevent excuse from the Jets game works the other way too. Seems like he put up most of those stats in about 4 or 5 quarters of work.
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Cato
Footballguy
Actually this kind of ties into a random thought, had the other day. About QB dynasty value.
You don't want a QB who is JUST a game manager. Trent Dilfer likely will not take you to the promised land.
On the other hand, you don't want a QB who is JUST a playmaker. Mike Vick can explode, but if he isn't winning games then his value can be suspect to change. Or suspect to regime change (Tim Tebow).
The more solid QB, from a dynasty value perspective, is the one who can game manage AND make plays. The play making is upside, the ability to game manage is the baseline which helps his team win, which ensures he's likely to keep his job.
So Matt Cassell, Ryan Fitzpatrick, can make plays to some degree, and the points still count, but if they don't have the ability to game manage their team to a win, they are not QBs you want to have to rely on. As at a certain point, their teams won't rely on them either. Or rather the regimes which did rely on them, will be changed. And regime changes, usually mean QB changes.
Not a 100% iron clad rule, just a thought.
You don't want a QB who is JUST a game manager. Trent Dilfer likely will not take you to the promised land.
On the other hand, you don't want a QB who is JUST a playmaker. Mike Vick can explode, but if he isn't winning games then his value can be suspect to change. Or suspect to regime change (Tim Tebow).
The more solid QB, from a dynasty value perspective, is the one who can game manage AND make plays. The play making is upside, the ability to game manage is the baseline which helps his team win, which ensures he's likely to keep his job.
So Matt Cassell, Ryan Fitzpatrick, can make plays to some degree, and the points still count, but if they don't have the ability to game manage their team to a win, they are not QBs you want to have to rely on. As at a certain point, their teams won't rely on them either. Or rather the regimes which did rely on them, will be changed. And regime changes, usually mean QB changes.
Not a 100% iron clad rule, just a thought.
Time Kibitzer
Footballguy
Stats never lie. Just don't always take them at face value.
Stompin' Tom Connors
Footballguy
Why is Spiller leading the league in yardage and tied for most TDs a lie? Because he likely won't produce at that level all season? Small sample set?I would tend to agree, but he has more of a chance to keep up this level of pace than, say, one of the guys who is tied for most TDs out of all receivers right now.Will save you the lookup, I am referring to Dante Rosario.
spodog
Footballguy
or like Cassel right now. He hasn't played particularly well (fumbled in the red zone on Sunday, etc), but in pretend football, he's likely in the Top 5 or 6 in producing points at the QB position and very well could be on your waiver wire. With a horrid Saints DEF coming up this week on the schedule, Cassel is actually a decent fantasy play this weekend, but his stock as an NFL QB continues to plummet.'Ghost Rider said:
Biabreakable
Footballguy
Week 2 is always interesting because you have some data now and can begin looking at trends and tendencies. But I think the 3rd and 4th weeks get closer to figuring out how the end of season may actually look like. It is still too early.
Props to Fitzpatrick though. Always liked him.
Props to Fitzpatrick though. Always liked him.
GroveDiesel
Footballguy
He's put up decent numbers, but he's still been horribly innaccurate and bailed out by the defense and running game.
sports_fan
Footballguy
7 8 9 and lied about it
Since the interception he threw on the first play of the 2nd half against the Jets, he's gone 8 touchdowns to 0 interceptions. He also hasn't really taken a sack yet as the only one all year came this week when he lost his grip on the ball while attempting a pass.
There have plenty of tipped and off-target throws so I'd agree with Grove that he's not playing as well as the numbers seem to indicate. But, he's also not working with a superstar cast of weapons either and seems to be playing well enough to win as long as the other components come through. He's definitely not the type of QB you want to rely on very often, but it does seem like the team has rebounded a bit from the first half debacle against the Jets.
Should be a good test next week against New England to see where he's really at.
There have plenty of tipped and off-target throws so I'd agree with Grove that he's not playing as well as the numbers seem to indicate. But, he's also not working with a superstar cast of weapons either and seems to be playing well enough to win as long as the other components come through. He's definitely not the type of QB you want to rely on very often, but it does seem like the team has rebounded a bit from the first half debacle against the Jets.
Should be a good test next week against New England to see where he's really at.
GroveDiesel
Footballguy
It's hard to complain with 2 straight wins, no INTs over those two games and still being tied for the lead in TDs...but...
His completion percentage still isn't all that great and that's despite throwing short passes almost exclusively. His passing yardage numbers are amongst the lowest in the league, his YPA are amongst the lowest and I still feel like he's leaving a lot of yards out there.
But he's doing what the Bills need him to do to win right now. The offensive and defensive lines are playing so well right now that he just needs to be a game manager. They need him to convert enough 3rd downs to score a few TDs, hand it off and not turn it over.
The Bills have the Patriots followed by the Niners. So reality looms. He needs to play his best games over the next two weeks.
His completion percentage still isn't all that great and that's despite throwing short passes almost exclusively. His passing yardage numbers are amongst the lowest in the league, his YPA are amongst the lowest and I still feel like he's leaving a lot of yards out there.
But he's doing what the Bills need him to do to win right now. The offensive and defensive lines are playing so well right now that he just needs to be a game manager. They need him to convert enough 3rd downs to score a few TDs, hand it off and not turn it over.
The Bills have the Patriots followed by the Niners. So reality looms. He needs to play his best games over the next two weeks.
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Time Kibitzer
Footballguy
Yeah despite his high passing TD total, his YPA suggests he's really nothing more than a game manager at best.
I'm not sure the biggest Fitz backer in the world would have argued that point much prior to this season starting, so not sure anything has changed.With a strong running game and defense, the Bills aren't looking for him to be a world beater on offense. Chan Gailey usually gets good production out of his QBs and Fitz is a very good fit for his offense. They don't ask him to throw deep outs or things like that very often. They spread teams out and let him find the open man. As long as running game and line are doing their parts, Fitz can keep the chains moving.
Time Kibitzer
Footballguy
Yeah you're right, but I was just referring to GroveDiesel's original postulation that the stats are lying in regard Fitzpatrick because he leads the league in passing TDs; since that's literally the only statistic that Fitzpatrick is above average in and hence statistics aren't lying.
