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Green Bay not automatically in with win vs Bears (1 Viewer)
- Thread starter emge
- Start date
Flash
Footballguy
I think it's more involved than that, they didn't say. All they said was it was so improbable they wouldn't even go into it.No idea what it is.
ScottyFargo
Footballguy
Some people really need to check with others before they ought to be allowed to post on the internet.Flash said:Did you hurry to get the kleenex and lotion out when you heard that?
David Yudkin
Footballguy
I believe the remore possibility involves NO losing tomorrow and next week to TB and the Giants also losing next week. That would get GB tied with TB and NO. I also think that at that point the strength of schedule and victory tiebreakers come into play, so all the teams GB beat would have to lose and all the teams the other tied teams would have to win. I can't find anywhere that spells it out, but I suspect that's where we're at.
Last edited by a moderator:
Flash
Footballguy
I was on NFL.com and the 5th tiebreaker between 3 teams tied for a wildcard spot in different divisions, ir "Strength of Victory" and 6th is "Strength of Schedule"I'm prety sure you're right.The 4th Tie Break is "Best won-lost-tied percentage in common games, minimum of four." This is where I thought it might be, but since they did say it might come down to Strength of victory, you may be correct.
That could be it. It would be a complicated scenario for sure.
CletiusMaximus
Footballguy
They can also technically win the wildcard with a loss next week to the Bears (if the Bucs and Giants both lose). Most likely scenario has them in the 6th spot playing at Chicago (which would be awesome); somewhat less likely is at Philadelphia. Either would be great.
Phase of the Game
Footballguy
For someone that cries like a school girl about people pissing in the SP you seem to do it as well.Flash said:I'm guessing you ran for the Kleenex and lotion too?Some people really need to check with others before they ought to be allowed to post on the internet.Flash said:Did you hurry to get the kleenex and lotion out when you heard that?
Bears should just win and make it a moot point. Better to have Green Bay out and have the guaranteed first round bye. I really hope Lovie doesn't rest the starters if the Eagles lose.
Luckily,
1. Lovie loves to beat the Pack, no matter what.
2. The Eagles will crush the Vikes.
It will be awesome to have the Pack/Bears game mean so much for both teams this late in the season.
Luckily,
1. Lovie loves to beat the Pack, no matter what.
2. The Eagles will crush the Vikes.
It will be awesome to have the Pack/Bears game mean so much for both teams this late in the season.
David Yudkin
Footballguy
GB can lose and still make it in if NYG loses to WAS and TB loses to NO.
Mr. Retukes
Footballguy
I've been experimenting with scenarios for the past hour and I haven't come up with anything that keeps Green Bay out of the playoffs with a win. Does anyone have an updated Strength Of Victory calculation? I found a list from 2 weeks ago that showed the Packers at .436, New York at .396, New Orleans at .369 and Tampa at .279.
I'm somewhat skeptical that the other teams could make a drastic leap in their SOV numbers in just 2 weeks, since they had so many games in common with Green Bay.
The Giants would need Carolina, Seattle, Dallas and Detroit to win, while Philadelphia, Minnesota, and San Francisco (all former Green Bay victories) all lose. But even then it looks like Green Bay ends up with the better SOV (link).
I give up.
I'm somewhat skeptical that the other teams could make a drastic leap in their SOV numbers in just 2 weeks, since they had so many games in common with Green Bay.
The Giants would need Carolina, Seattle, Dallas and Detroit to win, while Philadelphia, Minnesota, and San Francisco (all former Green Bay victories) all lose. But even then it looks like Green Bay ends up with the better SOV (link).
I give up.1 doesn't hold a lot of water considering they basically didn't care about their season finale in the 2006 season.
TommyGilmore
Footballguy
Green Bay: .439
smackdaddies
Footballguy
Journal Sentinel is reporting that there are no circumstances in which the Packers would not make the playoffs should they beat the Bears.Mr. Retukes said:I've been experimenting with scenarios for the past hour and I haven't come up with anything that keeps Green Bay out of the playoffs with a win. Does anyone have an updated Strength Of Victory calculation? I found a list from 2 weeks ago that showed the Packers at .436, New York at .396, New Orleans at .369 and Tampa at .279.
I'm somewhat skeptical that the other teams could make a drastic leap in their SOV numbers in just 2 weeks, since they had so many games in common with Green Bay.
The Giants would need Carolina, Seattle, Dallas and Detroit to win, while Philadelphia, Minnesota, and San Francisco (all former Green Bay victories) all lose. But even then it looks like Green Bay ends up with the better SOV (link).
QuizGuy66
Footballguy
The OP is incorrect, the post with the link to the Green Bay paper is correct.
The Packers are in with a win.
Divsion ties are broken first. If NO is 10-6, the Bucs will also be 10-6 and will win the tiebreaker with the Saints.
Thus, when it comes to breaking ties for the wildcard, the Packers, Bucs, and maybe the Giants (if the Giants win).
Taking each possibility:
Two-way Tie between TB and GB.
No head-to-head.
Same conference record (8-4)
Same record in common games (2-3)
Goes to strength of victory.
Green Bay has an insurmountable lead in SOV.
Including a win over the Bears they would have at least 69 SOV victories as things stand and would be guaranteed at least 3 more because of teams playing each other next week. They could get 1 more for each for Minny winning this week and Minny and SF winning
Tampa Bay has at least 52 SOV victories as things stand and would be guaranteed 2 more based on matchups. They can pick up 1 more for an NO win this week and 1 more for Cleveland and Cincy winning next week and 2 more for Carolina winning next week. They cannot catch the Packers
Three-way tie between TB, GB, and Giants
No head-to-head sweep applies (TB did not play Giants)
Same Conference record (8-4)
Not enough common games so that does not apply.
Goes to Strength of victory.
Again Green Bay has an insurmountable lead.
With a Giants win, they would have at least 70 SOV victories and again be guaranteed 3 more because of teams playing each other. Again they could get 1 more each for Minny winning this week and Minny and SF winning next week.
Tampa is the same as above. They cannot catch the Packers
The Giants have 59 SOV wins as things stand. They would be guaranteed 2 more based on games that get played between teams they already beat. They could pick up one more each if Minn wins this week, and if Carolina, Dallas, Seattle, and Minnesota win next week. They cannot catch the Packers either.
If the Saints have 11 wins and clinch, the above still applies for a tie-break for the 2nd wildcard.
Ergo, if the Packers win, they are in.
-QG
The Packers are in with a win.
Divsion ties are broken first. If NO is 10-6, the Bucs will also be 10-6 and will win the tiebreaker with the Saints.
Thus, when it comes to breaking ties for the wildcard, the Packers, Bucs, and maybe the Giants (if the Giants win).
Taking each possibility:
Two-way Tie between TB and GB.
No head-to-head.
Same conference record (8-4)
Same record in common games (2-3)
Goes to strength of victory.
Green Bay has an insurmountable lead in SOV.
Including a win over the Bears they would have at least 69 SOV victories as things stand and would be guaranteed at least 3 more because of teams playing each other next week. They could get 1 more for each for Minny winning this week and Minny and SF winning
Tampa Bay has at least 52 SOV victories as things stand and would be guaranteed 2 more based on matchups. They can pick up 1 more for an NO win this week and 1 more for Cleveland and Cincy winning next week and 2 more for Carolina winning next week. They cannot catch the Packers
Three-way tie between TB, GB, and Giants
No head-to-head sweep applies (TB did not play Giants)
Same Conference record (8-4)
Not enough common games so that does not apply.
Goes to Strength of victory.
Again Green Bay has an insurmountable lead.
With a Giants win, they would have at least 70 SOV victories and again be guaranteed 3 more because of teams playing each other. Again they could get 1 more each for Minny winning this week and Minny and SF winning next week.
Tampa is the same as above. They cannot catch the Packers
The Giants have 59 SOV wins as things stand. They would be guaranteed 2 more based on games that get played between teams they already beat. They could pick up one more each if Minn wins this week, and if Carolina, Dallas, Seattle, and Minnesota win next week. They cannot catch the Packers either.
If the Saints have 11 wins and clinch, the above still applies for a tie-break for the 2nd wildcard.
Ergo, if the Packers win, they are in.
-QG
