Greg Jennings, WR, Green Bay Packers (1 Viewer)

[smackdaddies]

If you drop his first two years, and only count years 3/4/5 (which I think we all can agree is typically when the best production starts for WR, his avg stats are

75rpt 1,223 yards, 8 TD

How is that different than most of these projections? Certainly not mine (80, 1,200, 10td).

If you add in his sophmore season, rcpt and yards goes down, but his TD increases. And if you adjust on a per game basis and include his soph year(as he only played in 13 games his sophmore year - his per game numbers for rcpt and yardage have been very consistent.

Four consistent statistical years, just entering his prime playing years, with a great offense and a great qb? Anyone who projects less than the above numbers is simply not playing with a full deck.

 

[Grahamburn]

Receptions 80

Receiving Yards 1,200

Receiving TDs 10

I'm agree with the receptions & TDs here if Finley is healthy all year. I can't quite get with the 15 yards per reception though, he's been over 16 the last 4 seasons & I expect that to improve Finley or not. I really feel like Rodgers & Jennings found their grove last seaon.80

1400

10

If Finley gets roughed up early as usual I feel the sky is the limit. I can see a ceiling of 90, 1500 & 13.

140 targets, 82 rec, (59%), 1350 yards, (16.5 ypc), 10 TD's

It just bugged me that 3 of the first 4 or 5 projections in this thread would be career years, and better than or equal to the career year he just had. That's all. Those are some big projections. The Packers just finished an epic season. Aaron Rodgers was outstanding all year. It's not unheard of for teams to come back to earth a bit after that type of year. He also suffered a concussion. Maybe they'll try to limit the hits he takes?

I can't see Rodgers improving too much on his numbers unless the Packers start playing their games in a dome. Not happening, right? Couple that with a little more competition for the ball and I see Jennings' numbers suffering some.

We're talking about a handful of TDs here and a couple 100 yards. I'm not arguing that Greg Jennings is going to fall off the map as a solid top 10 WR. I just think he's closer to a 75/1,100/8 guy than he is an 85/1,300/10 guy as suggested by some early posts in this thread.

 

[mcintyre1]

One thing that I find funny about all of this arguing is that if you average all of our projections in this thread, you get numbers that I think pretty much all of us could agree are very reasonable (except for LHUCKS, perhaps):

1223 Yards, 9 TDs

 

[Grahamburn]

Not really trying to say 80/1,200/10 is a bad projection. It's just at the high end of the spectrum all things considered. He finished 4th last season. I don't think he'll be there again. I just see him in the second tier of WRs and would take 6 or 7 guys ahead of him.

 

[Go deep]

Receptions 80

Receiving Yards 1,200

Receiving TDs 10

I'm agree with the receptions & TDs here if Finley is healthy all year. I can't quite get with the 15 yards per reception though, he's been over 16 the last 4 seasons & I expect that to improve Finley or not. I really feel like Rodgers & Jennings found their grove last seaon.80

1400

10

If Finley gets roughed up early as usual I feel the sky is the limit. I can see a ceiling of 90, 1500 & 13.

140 targets, 82 rec, (59%), 1350 yards, (16.5 ypc), 10 TD's

It just bugged me that 3 of the first 4 or 5 projections in this thread would be career years, and better than or equal to the career year he just had. That's all. Those are some big projections. The Packers just finished an epic season. Aaron Rodgers was outstanding all year. It's not unheard of for teams to come back to earth a bit after that type of year. He also suffered a concussion. Maybe they'll try to limit the hits he takes?

I can't see Rodgers improving too much on his numbers unless the Packers start playing their games in a dome. Not happening, right? Couple that with a little more competition for the ball and I see Jennings' numbers suffering some.

We're talking about a handful of TDs here and a couple 100 yards. I'm not arguing that Greg Jennings is going to fall off the map as a solid top 10 WR. I just think he's closer to a 75/1,100/8 guy than he is an 85/1,300/10 guy as suggested by some early posts in this thread.

A few things I want to mention. One, EVERY player spotlight is filled with projections on what appears to be a players ceiling, especially in the first few posts. 2nd, Why would anyone think the Packers are going to take a step backwards? They are one of the, if not the youngest team in the league. Sure, anything is possible, but I think it is a lot more likely the Packers are a team on the rise as opposed to a one hit wonder.

3rd, I'm not seeing how he has any more competition for targets this year. Jones is gone, and Driver(who I think has been Jennings biggest problem) is just a part time player at this point.

Last but not least, you said its crazy to project him for numbers that would be close to career highs, yet you project him to hit a career low in yardage(minus rookie season). TD's are a bit fluky, he could score 6 or 14, neither would be surprising. He has averaged 9 since his rookie year so it seems a liitle wierd you would call people crazy for projecting him getting 10.

 

[Go deep]

Not really trying to say 80/1,200/10 is a bad projection. It's just at the high end of the spectrum all things considered. He finished 4th last season. I don't think he'll be there again. I just see him in the second tier of WRs and would take 6 or 7 guys ahead of him.

90/1400/14 seems high end of the spectrum. Your numbers are barely more than his average.Since you would only take 6 or 7 WR's over him, you are not that far off what most think. Almost doesn't seem worth mentioning over such a small difference. I would take 4 or 5 WRs aheaf of him, and I'm a Jennings optimist.

 

[smackdaddies]

If you take his per game played (not started) average over the past four years, (so your making the calc based on games played by jennings)

72.7 ypg 1203.9 total yards 9.7 TDs

 

[Sultans]

Ultimately the projection for Greg Jennings is contingent on the health of Michael Finley. Finley is the superior talent and Rodgers will favor him in my opinion. IF Finley somehow plays 14 or more games I think the people drafting Jennings in the late 2nd will be very disappointed.

71 rec 1050 7 TD's

I won't be one of those people.

 

[Go deep]

Ultimately the projection for Greg Jennings is contingent on the health of Michael Finley. Finley is the superior talent and Rodgers will favor him in my opinion. IF Finley somehow plays 14 or more games I think the people drafting Jennings in the late 2nd will be very disappointed. 71 rec 1050 7 TD'sI won't be one of those people.

His name is Jermichael Finley.

 

[Sultans]

Oops sorry for my mental lapse Mr. Deep. The Dallas Mavericks title might have had something to do with that.

 

[Grahamburn]

Not really trying to say 80/1,200/10 is a bad projection. It's just at the high end of the spectrum all things considered. He finished 4th last season. I don't think he'll be there again. I just see him in the second tier of WRs and would take 6 or 7 guys ahead of him.

90/1400/14 seems high end of the spectrum. Your numbers are barely more than his average.Since you would only take 6 or 7 WR's over him, you are not that far off what most think. Almost doesn't seem worth mentioning over such a small difference. I would take 4 or 5 WRs aheaf of him, and I'm a Jennings optimist.

You're right. I should have just said yeah. But, to me, that's not what this is about. A handful of yards and TDs or a few spots in the rankings makes all the difference in the world. The projections here suggest Jennings should be drafted with Roddy White, Andre Johnson, Calvin Johnson, etc. I disagree, and would rather pass on Jennings for another RB, because I don't think he has the same ceiling as the top tier WRs.

 

[Pipes]

Not really trying to say 80/1,200/10 is a bad projection. It's just at the high end of the spectrum all things considered. He finished 4th last season. I don't think he'll be there again. I just see him in the second tier of WRs and would take 6 or 7 guys ahead of him.

90/1400/14 seems high end of the spectrum. Your numbers are barely more than his average.Since you would only take 6 or 7 WR's over him, you are not that far off what most think. Almost doesn't seem worth mentioning over such a small difference. I would take 4 or 5 WRs aheaf of him, and I'm a Jennings optimist.

You're right. I should have just said yeah. But, to me, that's not what this is about. A handful of yards and TDs or a few spots in the rankings makes all the difference in the world. The projections here suggest Jennings should be drafted with Roddy White, Andre Johnson, Calvin Johnson, etc. I disagree, and would rather pass on Jennings for another RB, because I don't think he has the same ceiling as the top tier WRs.

Very few of the predictions here have him at that tier. Most have him in the 1100-1200 yard and 8-10 td range...which is pretty much at his career average. I see no reason he won't hit those numbers, even with Jermichael Finley. Jennings is a low end #1 WR (for fantasy purposes) or a very high #2. I'd put him in the 8-12 range. It's funny to me (and I'm not calling you out for this) guys think he's overrated because he's not 6'4" or he doesn't run a 4.3 40. All he does is put up solid numbers.

 

[Go deep]

Oops sorry for my mental lapse Mr. Deep. The Dallas Mavericks title might have had something to do with that.

I didn't mean for that to sound pricky, I appologize if it sounded that way.

 

[Late225]

Greg Jennings was being out performed by Donald Driver until he looked to get hurt in week 5. I think if healthy, Driver can still equal or outperform Jennings. I know it's a big IF, but with Driver going in the 12/13 rounds - I'd feel much better drafting Larry Fitzgerald or Reggie Wayne instead of Jennings and nabbing Driver in the 12/13 who could potentially equal or outperform Jennings.

With that being said, Jennings: 125 targets, 75 catches, 1250 yards, 10 TD, 1 rush for 12 yards.

 

[bigmiiiiike]

I agree Jennings is incredibly consistent, and I acknowledge that he is the #1 WR on probably the best passing offense in the league. However, I cannot ignore his lack of involvement in the offense when Finley was on the field. Finley got injured during the 5th game. Those first five games, Jennings produced:

Rec Yards

5 82

3 36

2 18

2 25

2 22

He also had 3 TDs over that span, which of course you cannot discount, but you can also not discount the fact that when Finley was on the field Jennings was not even close to a focal point in that offense.

I think the Packers will continue to focus on the passing game, but I think Jennings will put up nothing more than Colston numbers. Not bad, but not something you'd want to burn an early-mid 2nd rounder on, especially when you can get Colston a round or two later.

70 catches, 1155 yards, 9 TDs

 

[King of the Jungle]

Greg Jennings was being out performed by Donald Driver until he looked to get hurt in week 5. I think if healthy, Driver can still equal or outperform Jennings. I know it's a big IF, but with Driver going in the 12/13 rounds - I'd feel much better drafting Larry Fitzgerald or Reggie Wayne instead of Jennings and nabbing Driver in the 12/13 who could potentially equal or outperform Jennings. With that being said, Jennings: 125 targets, 75 catches, 1250 yards, 10 TD, 1 rush for 12 yards.

This is a new twist. I would be shocked if Driver came close to what you are projecting for Jennings.

 

[fightingillini]

I like Jennings as an NFL WR. Runs good routes and has good speed. My concern with Jennnings is that Rodgers likes to spread the ball around and Jennings will be pretty inconsistent. Also, Jennings has never been a big reception guy, so his WR1 status in PPR leagues is largely determined by how many TDs he produces. With all the options in GB, I can't see him scoring more than 10 or 11. While he's a fairly safe pick....in PPR leagues, I am not thrilled having to spend a real early pick on him. Rather go with another RB or an elite QB if there isn't another top WR option like Wayne or Fitzgerald.....assuming AJ, Calvin, Roddy and Nicks are off the board.

77 rec, 1125 yds, 9 TD

 

[Alex P Keaton]

Not really trying to say 80/1,200/10 is a bad projection. It's just at the high end of the spectrum all things considered. He finished 4th last season. I don't think he'll be there again. I just see him in the second tier of WRs and would take 6 or 7 guys ahead of him.

90/1400/14 seems high end of the spectrum. Your numbers are barely more than his average.Since you would only take 6 or 7 WR's over him, you are not that far off what most think. Almost doesn't seem worth mentioning over such a small difference. I would take 4 or 5 WRs aheaf of him, and I'm a Jennings optimist.

You're right. I should have just said yeah. But, to me, that's not what this is about. A handful of yards and TDs or a few spots in the rankings makes all the difference in the world. The projections here suggest Jennings should be drafted with Roddy White, Andre Johnson, Calvin Johnson, etc. I disagree, and would rather pass on Jennings for another RB, because I don't think he has the same ceiling as the top tier WRs.

This seems perfectly reasonable to me. Jennings is a very good WR (real life) and a solid #1WR (lower end of WR1) in fantasy. But he doesn't likely possess the same upside as guys like AJ, CJ, Fitz, etc. The Pack spread the ball around, Finley commands targets, etc. Could Rodgers suddenly bust out for 40+ TDs in a season? Sure. But I'm not banking on that.[disclosure: I'm a Packer homer and a Jennings owner]

 

[Late225]

Greg Jennings was being out performed by Donald Driver until he looked to get hurt in week 5. I think if healthy, Driver can still equal or outperform Jennings. I know it's a big IF, but with Driver going in the 12/13 rounds - I'd feel much better drafting Larry Fitzgerald or Reggie Wayne instead of Jennings and nabbing Driver in the 12/13 who could potentially equal or outperform Jennings. With that being said, Jennings: 125 targets, 75 catches, 1250 yards, 10 TD, 1 rush for 12 yards.

This is a new twist. I would be shocked if Driver came close to what you are projecting for Jennings.

In 2009, their statistics were extremely similar. Jennings, Greg GBP WR 1091 66 4 Driver, Donald GBP WR 996 64 6 In 2010, weeks 1-5,Driver, Donald GBP WR 276 25 3 Jennings, Greg GBP WR 183 14 3 3 more targets, 11 more receptions, and WITH a healthy Finley. Granted, the wheels might fall off a few weeks into the season, but I'd much rather gamble on Driver in the 12th or 13th rounds if he has potential to outperform Jennings.

 

[Alex P Keaton]

Greg Jennings was being out performed by Donald Driver until he looked to get hurt in week 5. I think if healthy, Driver can still equal or outperform Jennings. I know it's a big IF, but with Driver going in the 12/13 rounds - I'd feel much better drafting Larry Fitzgerald or Reggie Wayne instead of Jennings and nabbing Driver in the 12/13 who could potentially equal or outperform Jennings. With that being said, Jennings: 125 targets, 75 catches, 1250 yards, 10 TD, 1 rush for 12 yards.

This is a new twist. I would be shocked if Driver came close to what you are projecting for Jennings.

Driver is still a talented, savvy veteran, but he is aging rapidly.

 

[Alex P Keaton]

Very few of the predictions here have him at that tier. Most have him in the 1100-1200 yard and 8-10 td range...which is pretty much at his career average. I see no reason he won't hit those numbers, even with Jermichael Finley.

Jennings is a low end #1 WR (for fantasy purposes) or a very high #2. I'd put him in the 8-12 range. It's funny to me (and I'm not calling you out for this) guys think he's overrated because he's not 6'4" or he doesn't run a 4.3 40. All he does is put up solid numbers.

So I guess all of these people defending his "likely" double digit TD total are doing it for nothing because they won't be drafting him and they apparently agree he is currently overrated? If everyone here sees him as a low end WR1, the rankings/draft positions I'm seeing are telling me that we do agree that he is currently overrated. His ADP is WR5, his ADP in the SSL drafts had him at WR6, and the staff rankings have him at WR6.But most of these rankings have him in the 1200+ range and 10 TD, which on most years is good for a WR5-WR7 ranking.

Can anyone here tell me they are willing to pay a WR5 or WR6 price for Jennings? His ADP is 18. I'd rather have a guy like Miles Austin (32) or Brandon Marshall (43) as they are both almost locks to finish with more targets & receptions than Jennings. In games with Romo, Austin has been on a consistent pace for 100+ rec. Marshall had 86/1014/3 in 14 games with Henne having a terrible year (16 game equiv = 98/1159). If you guys want to spend an early to mid 2nd round pick on Jennings, be my guest. But you are looking at probably an 80 rec ceiling and banking on at least 1 TD per 8 catches. There are cheaper, safer plays out there. I know everyone here seems to believe that Rodgers is suddenly going to cut back on his targets to Finley, but I don't see how you can be so sure. Really not worth that kind of gamble that early in the draft with so much value available in the late third and fourth rounds.

Don't be the guy who pays a career year price for the year afterwards...

Fair comments all around. It's good to see folks challenging the status quo in here.On the bolded, as a Packer fan I will be extremely disappointed if McCarthy sticks with his gameplan from weeks 1-5 last season. It's clear that the offense is far more explosive when Rodgers doesn't lock in solely on Finley. Additionally, the "intangible benefit" of having talented team leaders (Jennings, not Finley - Finley is an ### clown) cannot and should not be undervalued. My HOPE is that McCarthy learned his lesson. This team would NOT have won a ring with Finley as the lead dog last year.

 

[⚡DEADHEAD⚡]

Greg Jennings was being out performed by Donald Driver until he looked to get hurt in week 5. I think if healthy, Driver can still equal or outperform Jennings. I know it's a big IF, but with Driver going in the 12/13 rounds - I'd feel much better drafting Larry Fitzgerald or Reggie Wayne instead of Jennings and nabbing Driver in the 12/13 who could potentially equal or outperform Jennings. With that being said, Jennings: 125 targets, 75 catches, 1250 yards, 10 TD, 1 rush for 12 yards.

This is a new twist. I would be shocked if Driver came close to what you are projecting for Jennings.

In 2009, their statistics were extremely similar. Jennings, Greg GBP WR 1091 66 4 Driver, Donald GBP WR 996 64 6 In 2010, weeks 1-5,Driver, Donald GBP WR 276 25 3 Jennings, Greg GBP WR 183 14 3 3 more targets, 11 more receptions, and WITH a healthy Finley. Granted, the wheels might fall off a few weeks into the season, but I'd much rather gamble on Driver in the 12th or 13th rounds if he has potential to outperform Jennings.

He does not have the potential to outperform Jennings unless Jennings goes down. Driver's career - a great, historical one for Green Bay - is just about over. They've got Jordy Nelson, who I'd bet a lot of money wins the 2 spot if he isn't already, may re-sign Jones, spent a second rounder on Randall Cobb. I love me some Driver and he is a savvy vet. He can make the great catch to keep drives alive but as a fantasy factor, he's not worth it because he's just not startable. In the 12th or 13th, you're better off handcuffing your #2 RB, grabbing an extra QB, taking a flyer on a young WR (think Jennings his rookier year).

 

[Go deep]

Greg Jennings was being out performed by Donald Driver until he looked to get hurt in week 5. I think if healthy, Driver can still equal or outperform Jennings. I know it's a big IF, but with Driver going in the 12/13 rounds - I'd feel much better drafting Larry Fitzgerald or Reggie Wayne instead of Jennings and nabbing Driver in the 12/13 who could potentially equal or outperform Jennings. With that being said, Jennings: 125 targets, 75 catches, 1250 yards, 10 TD, 1 rush for 12 yards.

This is a new twist. I would be shocked if Driver came close to what you are projecting for Jennings.

In 2009, their statistics were extremely similar. Jennings, Greg GBP WR 1091 66 4 Driver, Donald GBP WR 996 64 6 In 2010, weeks 1-5,Driver, Donald GBP WR 276 25 3 Jennings, Greg GBP WR 183 14 3 3 more targets, 11 more receptions, and WITH a healthy Finley. Granted, the wheels might fall off a few weeks into the season, but I'd much rather gamble on Driver in the 12th or 13th rounds if he has potential to outperform Jennings.

For the record, Finley wasnt healthy in week 5, outside of the first drive.

 

[sho nuff]

I agree Jennings is incredibly consistent, and I acknowledge that he is the #1 WR on probably the best passing offense in the league. However, I cannot ignore his lack of involvement in the offense when Finley was on the field. Finley got injured during the 5th game. Those first five games, Jennings produced: Rec Yards 5 82 3 36 2 18 2 25 2 22He also had 3 TDs over that span, which of course you cannot discount, but you can also not discount the fact that when Finley was on the field Jennings was not even close to a focal point in that offense. I think the Packers will continue to focus on the passing game, but I think Jennings will put up nothing more than Colston numbers. Not bad, but not something you'd want to burn an early-mid 2nd rounder on, especially when you can get Colston a round or two later. 70 catches, 1155 yards, 9 TDs

Projections are not bad.But Id take him over Colston for his consistency.And the interesting thing is in those games with Finley that he did have the 3TDs to Finley's 1. Because a lot of those wanting to temper expectations for Jennings base it on Finley and redzone targets.

 

[De Novo]

One of the most overrated WRs in the NFL from an overall talent perspective. Jennings and his mediocre talent have benefitted from Rodgers' passing prowess. Because he's the best WR on the team he's put up some decent stats over the years...except of course when Finley, the real talent, was on the field last year where Jennings was nearly forgotten for a four game stretch.69 Receptions1075 Yards7 TDsI'll draft the same WR in round 8...thanks.

While I don't agree with the editorialization, I do think Jennings is in for a down year. His numbers sucked when Finley was healthy. He was considered a bust until Finley went down. I expect this year to be similar. I have him as my #10 WR and #39 overall player. I have him for similar numbers as LHUCKS without the negative commentary.

 

[smackdaddies]

One of the most overrated WRs in the NFL from an overall talent perspective. Jennings and his mediocre talent have benefitted from Rodgers' passing prowess. Because he's the best WR on the team he's put up some decent stats over the years...except of course when Finley, the real talent, was on the field last year where Jennings was nearly forgotten for a four game stretch.69 Receptions1075 Yards7 TDsI'll draft the same WR in round 8...thanks.

While I don't agree with the editorialization, I do think Jennings is in for a down year. His numbers sucked when Finley was healthy. He was considered a bust until Finley went down. I expect this year to be similar. I have him as my #10 WR and #39 overall player. I have him for similar numbers as LHUCKS without the negative commentary.

Based on the past three years, I have to see that (assuming he stays healthy) as the low end projection. If I have a choice between HUCKSTERS 5 game avg to project a season, or looking at actual production on a per game basis over his career, I will take his career avg as my starting point. I think it is better analysis to look at the Packers as being the most improved team this year in the NFL, and everyones numbers likely being higher than their career avg.

 

[Shutout]

One of the most overrated WRs in the NFL from an overall talent perspective. Jennings and his mediocre talent have benefitted from Rodgers' passing prowess. Because he's the best WR on the team he's put up some decent stats over the years...except of course when Finley, the real talent, was on the field last year where Jennings was nearly forgotten for a four game stretch.69 Receptions1075 Yards7 TDsI'll draft the same WR in round 8...thanks.

Completely agree. Too many people predicting numbers that suggest Jennings averages 5 catches per game. Fact is, with Finley on the field, he never has. I can't see him posting more than 75 catches this year unless, like last year, the Pack lose their starting RB, TE, other starting WR, and half their defense (forcing them to play Offense more than usual).

 

[Shutout]

[based on the past three years, I have to see that (assuming he stays healthy) as the low end projection. If I have a choice between HUCKSTERS 5 game avg to project a season, or looking at actual production on a per game basis over his career, I will take his career avg as my starting point.

I think Hucks is pretty solid because it takes into account the most important aspect: Looking at Jennings' production when in the presence of Finley. The truth is, when finley is on the field, Jennings is the 2nd best talent catching the ball and clearly is not a presence that commands targets the way that guys like Roddy White does, AJ does, Reggie Wayne does at times.

 

[FF Ninja]

It's already been mentioned by others (although they were the minority opinion), but WR5 is his ADP and also his ceiling. Rodgers is a great QB with plenty of weapons and the vision to spread it around to all of them. He's not going to hone in on Jennings enough to justify this draft position. 19th overall is crazy for a 75-80 catch guy who was taking a back seat to his TE last year. People are quite confident that this won't be the case this year, but even with Finley out, Jennings was only on an 85 catch pace through the last 12 games (and he hit 85 exactly if you count the 4 post season games).

Additionally, the TDs may not be there next year. Expecting 12 again is pretty bold. Rodgers will likely throw 30-32. I'm thinking 8 each (+/-2) to the WR1, WR2, TE with another 6-8 spread around to the RBs and other WRs. Last year, GB had 31 passing TD. 23 went to WR, but there was no real WR2 as 3 guys had between 51-45 rec. Those 3 guys had 11 TD to Jennings 12. The RBs had 3 and the TEs had 5. With Finley back, one must expect him to draw from TD from the WR pool. With the emergence of Nelson, you gotta expect Rodgers to trust him while Finley and Jennings are drawing coverage. The more I look at this situation, the less I can understand the career year projections here.

75 rec, 1238 yds (16.5 ypr), 8 TD

 

[sho nuff]

[based on the past three years, I have to see that (assuming he stays healthy) as the low end projection. If I have a choice between HUCKSTERS 5 game avg to project a season, or looking at actual production on a per game basis over his career, I will take his career avg as my starting point.

I think Hucks is pretty solid because it takes into account the most important aspect: Looking at Jennings' production when in the presence of Finley. The truth is, when finley is on the field, Jennings is the 2nd best talent catching the ball and clearly is not a presence that commands targets the way that guys like Roddy White does, AJ does, Reggie Wayne does at times.

Problem is, he is only looking at the production in a 4 game window.

 

[Ghost Rider]

Jennings reminds me of Colston in this regard: both are great WRs - two of the best in the league - but while both are in high-scoring offenses that increase their chances of putting up big numbers, they are also in offenses with tons of other weapons and with quarterbacks who would rather throw to the lesser, but open, options, rather than continuously force feed their best pass catcher.

Given that, Jennings could still be an 80-1,200-12 guy, but would it surprise anyone if it was 70-1,050-8? Not me. Given that someone is guaranteed to take him early, in the hopes of getting the high end projection, Jennings is a guy who likely won't end up on my team this season. It doesn't help that the Packers defense is great, so they are less likely to be in shootouts on a regular basis, or constantly playing from behind, two scenarios that make it possible for WRs to put up big numbers. Look at Brandon Lloyd last year. Put Jennings in that same position - top WR on a team constantly losing or playing in shootouts - and he would have put up even more ridiculous numbers.

 

[The Real Hipster Doofus]

I expect a bit of a downtown for Jennings this year. I expect similar numbers for receptions and yards, but his TD's to regress to the mean a bit. Still a good WR, but a guy whose name value exceeds his actual future production. I sold him this offseason.

 

[smackdaddies]

[based on the past three years, I have to see that (assuming he stays healthy) as the low end projection. If I have a choice between HUCKSTERS 5 game avg to project a season, or looking at actual production on a per game basis over his career, I will take his career avg as my starting point.

I think Hucks is pretty solid because it takes into account the most important aspect: Looking at Jennings' production when in the presence of Finley. The truth is, when finley is on the field, Jennings is the 2nd best talent catching the ball and clearly is not a presence that commands targets the way that guys like Roddy White does, AJ does, Reggie Wayne does at times.

From another thread.....

The Jennings vs. Finley comparisons are absurd, IMHO. When Finley was in the lineup, Jennings rough start had nothing to do with a lack of targets (they were both targeted 26 times), it had to do with Jennings only catching 12 of those 26 targets. Finley and Jennings will be the focal points of a prolific passing attack, as long as Finley is healthy. While I don't think Finley will sniff 1,000 yards, he and Jennings could both do so with relative ease, as I expect Jones to be gone in free agency and Driver to be limited to a part-time role going forward.

#justsayin

 

[Shutout]

[based on the past three years, I have to see that (assuming he stays healthy) as the low end projection. If I have a choice between HUCKSTERS 5 game avg to project a season, or looking at actual production on a per game basis over his career, I will take his career avg as my starting point.

I think Hucks is pretty solid because it takes into account the most important aspect: Looking at Jennings' production when in the presence of Finley. The truth is, when finley is on the field, Jennings is the 2nd best talent catching the ball and clearly is not a presence that commands targets the way that guys like Roddy White does, AJ does, Reggie Wayne does at times.

From another thread.....

The Jennings vs. Finley comparisons are absurd, IMHO. When Finley was in the lineup, Jennings rough start had nothing to do with a lack of targets (they were both targeted 26 times), it had to do with Jennings only catching 12 of those 26 targets. Finley and Jennings will be the focal points of a prolific passing attack, as long as Finley is healthy. While I don't think Finley will sniff 1,000 yards, he and Jennings could both do so with relative ease, as I expect Jones to be gone in free agency and Driver to be limited to a part-time role going forward.

#justsayin

So are you saying Jenning can't catch? J/K. Point taken but the other side of the coin is true also: Unless your FF league awards points for targets, then the point still stands because the production is the only thing that counts and Jenning's production clearly isn't the same in the presence of Finley (even if the sample size was small, its still IS the truth when both are on the field). The silver lining I would take from this if I were a Jennings supporter is that its nice to get the targets. And he is not targeted the way Roddy and the others are (I think Roddy had 177 targets last year). Just sayin..truth

 

[smackdaddies]

[based on the past three years, I have to see that (assuming he stays healthy) as the low end projection. If I have a choice between HUCKSTERS 5 game avg to project a season, or looking at actual production on a per game basis over his career, I will take his career avg as my starting point.

I think Hucks is pretty solid because it takes into account the most important aspect: Looking at Jennings' production when in the presence of Finley. The truth is, when finley is on the field, Jennings is the 2nd best talent catching the ball and clearly is not a presence that commands targets the way that guys like Roddy White does, AJ does, Reggie Wayne does at times.

From another thread.....

The Jennings vs. Finley comparisons are absurd, IMHO. When Finley was in the lineup, Jennings rough start had nothing to do with a lack of targets (they were both targeted 26 times), it had to do with Jennings only catching 12 of those 26 targets. Finley and Jennings will be the focal points of a prolific passing attack, as long as Finley is healthy. While I don't think Finley will sniff 1,000 yards, he and Jennings could both do so with relative ease, as I expect Jones to be gone in free agency and Driver to be limited to a part-time role going forward.

#justsayin

So are you saying Jenning can't catch? J/K. Point taken but the other side of the coin is true also: Unless your FF league awards points for targets, then the point still stands because the production is the only thing that counts and Jenning's production clearly isn't the same in the presence of Finley (even if the sample size was small, its still IS the truth when both are on the field). The silver lining I would take from this if I were a Jennings supporter is that its nice to get the targets. And he is not targeted the way Roddy and the others are (I think Roddy had 177 targets last year). Just sayin..truth

Jennings catching ability is, at times, a joke. He has everything needed to be a top 3 WR, but the guy can have issues holding the ball - which is why I put him probably about 10th best, but since he plays on the Packers, could get up to the top 4/5. He starts holding on to the ball, it's a 100 reception year with 15 tds.Anyone have stats on percentage of passes caught? I have to think that Jennings is not the best at percentage.

 

[greggorymac]

[based on the past three years, I have to see that (assuming he stays healthy) as the low end projection. If I have a choice between HUCKSTERS 5 game avg to project a season, or looking at actual production on a per game basis over his career, I will take his career avg as my starting point.

I think Hucks is pretty solid because it takes into account the most important aspect: Looking at Jennings' production when in the presence of Finley. The truth is, when finley is on the field, Jennings is the 2nd best talent catching the ball and clearly is not a presence that commands targets the way that guys like Roddy White does, AJ does, Reggie Wayne does at times.

From another thread.....

The Jennings vs. Finley comparisons are absurd, IMHO. When Finley was in the lineup, Jennings rough start had nothing to do with a lack of targets (they were both targeted 26 times), it had to do with Jennings only catching 12 of those 26 targets. Finley and Jennings will be the focal points of a prolific passing attack, as long as Finley is healthy. While I don't think Finley will sniff 1,000 yards, he and Jennings could both do so with relative ease, as I expect Jones to be gone in free agency and Driver to be limited to a part-time role going forward.

#justsayin

So are you saying Jenning can't catch? J/K. Point taken but the other side of the coin is true also: Unless your FF league awards points for targets, then the point still stands because the production is the only thing that counts and Jenning's production clearly isn't the same in the presence of Finley (even if the sample size was small, its still IS the truth when both are on the field). The silver lining I would take from this if I were a Jennings supporter is that its nice to get the targets. And he is not targeted the way Roddy and the others are (I think Roddy had 177 targets last year). Just sayin..truth

Jennings catching ability is, at times, a joke. He has everything needed to be a top 3 WR, but the guy can have issues holding the ball - which is why I put him probably about 10th best, but since he plays on the Packers, could get up to the top 4/5. He starts holding on to the ball, it's a 100 reception year with 15 tds.Anyone have stats on percentage of passes caught? I have to think that Jennings is not the best at percentage.

Smackdaddies... Your perception is not reality. Jennings actually ranked 27th among WRs in 2010 with a catch percentage of 61.3%.Other notable Wrs catch % rankings:Andre Johnson 62.3% (ranked 25th)Calvin Johnson 56.2% (ranked 45th)Hakeem Nicks 61.7% (ranked 26th)Larry Fitzgerald 52.0% (ranked 57th)http://wp.advancednflstats.com/playerstats.php?year=2010&pos=WR&season=regJennings is up there with the best in terms of catch percentage, and considering 36 of his targets were deep passes (balls thrown at least 20yds down field) it makes his overall catch percentage even more impressive.

 

[smackdaddies]

[based on the past three years, I have to see that (assuming he stays healthy) as the low end projection. If I have a choice between HUCKSTERS 5 game avg to project a season, or looking at actual production on a per game basis over his career, I will take his career avg as my starting point.

I think Hucks is pretty solid because it takes into account the most important aspect: Looking at Jennings' production when in the presence of Finley. The truth is, when finley is on the field, Jennings is the 2nd best talent catching the ball and clearly is not a presence that commands targets the way that guys like Roddy White does, AJ does, Reggie Wayne does at times.

From another thread.....

The Jennings vs. Finley comparisons are absurd, IMHO. When Finley was in the lineup, Jennings rough start had nothing to do with a lack of targets (they were both targeted 26 times), it had to do with Jennings only catching 12 of those 26 targets. Finley and Jennings will be the focal points of a prolific passing attack, as long as Finley is healthy. While I don't think Finley will sniff 1,000 yards, he and Jennings could both do so with relative ease, as I expect Jones to be gone in free agency and Driver to be limited to a part-time role going forward.

#justsayin

So are you saying Jenning can't catch? J/K. Point taken but the other side of the coin is true also: Unless your FF league awards points for targets, then the point still stands because the production is the only thing that counts and Jenning's production clearly isn't the same in the presence of Finley (even if the sample size was small, its still IS the truth when both are on the field).

The silver lining I would take from this if I were a Jennings supporter is that its nice to get the targets. And he is not targeted the way Roddy and the others are (I think Roddy had 177 targets last year). Just sayin..truth

Jennings catching ability is, at times, a joke. He has everything needed to be a top 3 WR, but the guy can have issues holding the ball - which is why I put him probably about 10th best, but since he plays on the Packers, could get up to the top 4/5. He starts holding on to the ball, it's a 100 reception year with 15 tds.

Anyone have stats on percentage of passes caught? I have to think that Jennings is not the best at percentage.

Smackdaddies... Your perception is not reality. Jennings actually ranked 27th among WRs in 2010 with a catch percentage of 61.3%.Other notable Wrs catch % rankings:

Andre Johnson 62.3% (ranked 25th)

Calvin Johnson 56.2% (ranked 45th)

Hakeem Nicks 61.7% (ranked 26th)

Larry Fitzgerald 52.0% (ranked 57th)

http://wp.advancednf...s=WR&season=reg

Jennings is up there with the best in terms of catch percentage, and considering 36 of his targets were deep passes (balls thrown at least 20yds down field) it makes his overall catch percentage even more impressive.

Thanks! I guess my view is colored by a few spectacularly bad drops.