Grinding: Heads Up or 50/50s & Double Ups (1 Viewer)

[jwarren90]

So this is my first year really giving DFS a shot. I've been playing about 10% of my $500 initial deposit bankroll, and so far I'm up about $80. I've been profitable every week, although just barely broke even in week 1. I'm throwing just a couple of lineups into $1 GPPs, but other than that, strictly sticking to cash games. Up to this point, all my cash action has been in 50/50s and Double Ups, and I'm finding that for me, I prefer the large field DU's because I'd rather bet on myself being in the top 44% and truly doubling up my winnings.

My question is, what is the better strategy for long term profit: 50/50s or Heads Up?

I know that there's more volatility in 50/50s because you're likely to win almost all your games or lose all your games in a given week, whereas if I know that I can win, on average, at a 65% rate, that over time, I will win 65% of my Heads Up matches and be profitable that way too.

I'd love to hear from some grinders who have found decent success with either strategy.

Cheers

 

[DukeBroadway]

I am right were you are at although only a $150 initial bankroll. I am interested in where this thread goes.....

 

[snellman]

Personally, I have had better luck in the 50/50s and double ups than the head to heads. If you have a low win total and post head to heads, they will get scooped up by sharks swimming in the shallow area. If you start going over the list of head to heads you will see a lot of players with a high number of wins.

 

[jandyt]

Last year my ROI in 50/50's and H2H's was almost identical. This year my ROI on 50/50's is much better. Maybe this will even out but overall my feelings is 50/50' and double up require less work to do well in. Because all 50/50's of the decent size will offer very similar cut lines while H2H will vary greatly and part of doing well is avoiding top players who your not going to have a high success rate against over time. Thus for H2H's you have to do all your normal work in picking lineups plus the work to try and pick the right opponents.

Personally I split my money about 85/15 cash to GPP. In GPP over half of that is X5's with the rest being large tournaments. For cash its about 60% 50/50 and doubles, 30% H2H, and 30% X3. I'm considering lowering the H2H part even more and shifting it to other cash games.

 

[VA703]

loaded $50 last week and will be at 200 by the end of tonight. all 50/50 so far for me

although if I were to lose 1 week id lose it all since im only going with 1 lineup

 

[karmarooster]

I completely avoid H2Hs because of the much lower upside, although they can be useful if you are looking to get a higher % of your bankroll in play due to the 'safety net' factor. They are the equivalent of "inflation protected low risk bonds" if that's what you're looking for.

If you must play them, I would cherry pick against opponents with less than 100 wins, and would not post public entries to be scooped up by someone looking to cherry pick.

FWIW, Dodds had a lower ROI for HTH than for 50/50 and DUs: http://50percentds.blogspot.com/2014/12/2014-fanduel-cash-game-results.html

 

[jwarren90]

Last year my ROI in 50/50's and H2H's was almost identical. This year my ROI on 50/50's is much better. Maybe this will even out but overall my feelings is 50/50' and double up require less work to do well in. Because all 50/50's of the decent size will offer very similar cut lines while H2H will vary greatly and part of doing well is avoiding top players who your not going to have a high success rate against over time. Thus for H2H's you have to do all your normal work in picking lineups plus the work to try and pick the right opponents.

Personally I split my money about 85/15 cash to GPP. In GPP over half of that is X5's with the rest being large tournaments. For cash its about 60% 50/50 and doubles, 30% H2H, and 30% X3. I'm considering lowering the H2H part even more and shifting it to other cash games.

Thanks, that's helpful. I'm not super concerned about getting scooped by Sharks if I'm only posting $1 and $2 games. I did get a browser extension that allowed me to hover over users names to identify there total # of wins, and I scooped a couple of games this weekend on users with very little NFL experience. However, at the end of the day, that was a time consuming process, and I can't imagine spending the necessary time trying to scoop enough games per week to make it worth my while.

 

[jwarren90]

I completely avoid H2Hs because of the much lower upside, although they can be useful if you are looking to get a higher % of your bankroll in play due to the 'safety net' factor. They are the equivalent of "inflation protected low risk bonds" if that's what you're looking for.

If you must play them, I would cherry pick against opponents with less than 100 wins, and would not post public entries to be scooped up by someone looking to cherry pick.

FWIW, Dodds had a lower ROI for HTH than for 50/50 and DUs: http://50percentds.blogspot.com/2014/12/2014-fanduel-cash-game-results.html

Thanks for the advice! Dodds' article was one of the first things I found when doing my research this preseason and I'm definitely following his gameplay suggestions for cash games. I thought that generally he was able to get a good return on $1 and $2 H2H's, but the competition could also be different because he was posting them and has an impressive number of NFL wins under his belt. Good stuff for sure.

 

[NixonMask]

I completely avoid H2Hs because of the much lower upside, although they can be useful if you are looking to get a higher % of your bankroll in play due to the 'safety net' factor. They are the equivalent of "inflation protected low risk bonds" if that's what you're looking for.

If you must play them, I would cherry pick against opponents with less than 100 wins, and would not post public entries to be scooped up by someone looking to cherry pick.

FWIW, Dodds had a lower ROI for HTH than for 50/50 and DUs: http://50percentds.blogspot.com/2014/12/2014-fanduel-cash-game-results.html

This is completely true. Each week I have it worked out to get close to 100% of my bankroll into play broken up across almost 10 slates in college and pro football. Its a very high risk strategy, and the H2Hs are like a worst case safety measure. As my roll grows I am already anticipating the problem of finding enough H2Hs posted by inexperienced players as I never plan on posting them myself. I also have the benefit of working on my computer without a boss looking over my shoulder as I troll the posted matchups every few hours.

loaded $50 last week and will be at 200 by the end of tonight. all 50/50 so far for me

although if I were to lose 1 week id lose it all since im only going with 1 lineup

There is a 100% chance you lose if you keep doing that.

 

[jandyt]

I completely avoid H2Hs because of the much lower upside, although they can be useful if you are looking to get a higher % of your bankroll in play due to the 'safety net' factor. They are the equivalent of "inflation protected low risk bonds" if that's what you're looking for.

If you must play them, I would cherry pick against opponents with less than 100 wins, and would not post public entries to be scooped up by someone looking to cherry pick.

FWIW, Dodds had a lower ROI for HTH than for 50/50 and DUs: http://50percentds.blogspot.com/2014/12/2014-fanduel-cash-game-results.html

This is completely true. Each week I have it worked out to get close to 100% of my bankroll into play broken up across almost 10 slates in college and pro football. Its a very high risk strategy, and the H2Hs are like a worst case safety measure. As my roll grows I am already anticipating the problem of finding enough H2Hs posted by inexperienced players as I never plan on posting them myself. I also have the benefit of working on my computer without a boss looking over my shoulder as I troll the posted matchups every few hours.

loaded $50 last week and will be at 200 by the end of tonight. all 50/50 so far for me

although if I were to lose 1 week id lose it all since im only going with 1 lineup

There is a 100% chance you lose if you keep doing that.

Nixon since you play a lot of both CFL and NFL I had a couple questions for you if you don't mind. First do you consider yourself equally knowledgeable at both games or more at one or the other? Then based on that info and your success would you consider one or other game to be easier to be successful at?

I ask this because I am far more knowledgeable at NFL as opposed to CFL. I love CFL but my knowledge tends to be somewhat limited to my team, their conference, and top 10 type programs. But last week I dipped my toe into CFL games and may do it more depending on results. But for now I am relying heavily on IVC to help with lineups which is a large departure from how I do NFL where I only use IVC to see where I differ a lot from "experts" after I do my projections and even then its just to help me go back over things not necessarily change them. It would be great to add to my ROI on NFL with college games but what I don't want to happen is to reduce my overall ROI on a game I am weaker at.

 

[NixonMask]

I consider myself pretty knowledgeable in NFL. I am sure that is a common delusion and why I think DFS is beatable if you approach it as a numbers game and check ego at the door. To use a baseball metaphor, Im not looking to hit a home run/strike out, Im looking for a bunt single on a pitcher that isnt paying attention. My results through 4 weeks of college and 3 weeks of NFL have been pretty clearly better in college though. Prior to this year I handnt watched a college game in probably 5 years and hadnt followed closely in about a decade.

My strategy for approaching both is pretty different. In pro I identify certain teams/games Im just off of that week. I dont care what the prices are, the situations are just too volatile and high variance for my already risky bankroll management. I will always run 3 or 7 cash lineups in larger slates, and in smaller slates I will run a single lineup.
In NCAA I am all in on the stars and scrubs approach. First step is always identifying which quarterbacks I want to use that week, and will almost always be the games with the highest O/U that week that isnt a complete blow out. From there I add the best TE available in the slate and after that plug in as many stars as I can. Then, when Im down to min salary guys left I dig through the options. I have yet to find a slate that didnt have min salary guys good for atleast 1x their price, which is all you need when the rest of your roster is capable of 3x and 4x performances. When looking for the min salary guys just look for guys that are regularly part of the gameplan and getting targets even if they havent done much with them.

Im not gong to recommend anyone play a game theyre not familiar with, but I have had consistent cash game success this season with that approach.

 

[VA703]

I completely avoid H2Hs because of the much lower upside, although they can be useful if you are looking to get a higher % of your bankroll in play due to the 'safety net' factor. They are the equivalent of "inflation protected low risk bonds" if that's what you're looking for.

If you must play them, I would cherry pick against opponents with less than 100 wins, and would not post public entries to be scooped up by someone looking to cherry pick.

FWIW, Dodds had a lower ROI for HTH than for 50/50 and DUs: http://50percentds.blogspot.com/2014/12/2014-fanduel-cash-game-results.html

This is completely true. Each week I have it worked out to get close to 100% of my bankroll into play broken up across almost 10 slates in college and pro football. Its a very high risk strategy, and the H2Hs are like a worst case safety measure. As my roll grows I am already anticipating the problem of finding enough H2Hs posted by inexperienced players as I never plan on posting them myself. I also have the benefit of working on my computer without a boss looking over my shoulder as I troll the posted matchups every few hours.

loaded $50 last week and will be at 200 by the end of tonight. all 50/50 so far for me

although if I were to lose 1 week id lose it all since im only going with 1 lineup

There is a 100% chance you lose if you keep doing that.

how many lineups do you usually go with and how much do they overlap?

 

[taragon85]

I started with 50 dollars (won employee of the month) towards week 1. I've done 100% 50/50 and won every single week with hours of hard work and reading stats. Im currentl up 735.00 and am hoping to be at 1500 next week I hate Sundays though because I am a ball of anxiety but it's always worked out every week! Keep it up, you can do it.

Also, I always do two different line ups.

 

[jandyt]

I completely avoid H2Hs because of the much lower upside, although they can be useful if you are looking to get a higher % of your bankroll in play due to the 'safety net' factor. They are the equivalent of "inflation protected low risk bonds" if that's what you're looking for.

If you must play them, I would cherry pick against opponents with less than 100 wins, and would not post public entries to be scooped up by someone looking to cherry pick.

FWIW, Dodds had a lower ROI for HTH than for 50/50 and DUs: http://50percentds.blogspot.com/2014/12/2014-fanduel-cash-game-results.html

This is completely true. Each week I have it worked out to get close to 100% of my bankroll into play broken up across almost 10 slates in college and pro football. Its a very high risk strategy, and the H2Hs are like a worst case safety measure. As my roll grows I am already anticipating the problem of finding enough H2Hs posted by inexperienced players as I never plan on posting them myself. I also have the benefit of working on my computer without a boss looking over my shoulder as I troll the posted matchups every few hours.

loaded $50 last week and will be at 200 by the end of tonight. all 50/50 so far for me

although if I were to lose 1 week id lose it all since im only going with 1 lineup

There is a 100% chance you lose if you keep doing that.

how many lineups do you usually go with and how much do they overlap?

For me I typically run 2(occasionally 3) cash lineups for each slate I'm playing. Overlap varies week to week but can be very heavy, its never two completely different line ups.

 

[Fantasysports1]

I have been playing 50/50s and doubleups. I dont really want to enter h2hs because there are a fair amount of sharp players. Though there are a lot of newer players that will be entered into h2hs in general. If you only play one lu, and score a 40% you will win about 40% of your h2hs. Some people do not like losing everything if they produce a lineup lower than 50% in the 50/50s.

 

[jwarren90]

I started with 50 dollars (won employee of the month) towards week 1. I've done 100% 50/50 and won every single week with hours of hard work and reading stats. Im currentl up 735.00 and am hoping to be at 1500 next week I hate Sundays though because I am a ball of anxiety but it's always worked out every week! Keep it up, you can do it.

Also, I always do two different line ups.

How did you go from $50 to $735 in three weeks playing 50/50s? My math says 100% win should be about $291.60. Even with double ups, I don't understand how cash games would get you beyond $400 in three weeks.

 

[jandyt]

I started with 50 dollars (won employee of the month) towards week 1. I've done 100% 50/50 and won every single week with hours of hard work and reading stats. Im currentl up 735.00 and am hoping to be at 1500 next week I hate Sundays though because I am a ball of anxiety but it's always worked out every week! Keep it up, you can do it.

Also, I always do two different line ups.

How did you go from $50 to $735 in three weeks playing 50/50s? My math says 100% win should be about $291.60. Even with double ups, I don't understand how cash games would get you beyond $400 in three weeks.

Was curious about this myself, maybe he is doing advanced stats that allow him to overcome the rules of math. I need to take that course.

 

[taragon85]

I started with 50 dollars (won employee of the month) towards week 1. I've done 100% 50/50 and won every single week with hours of hard work and reading stats. Im currentl up 735.00 and am hoping to be at 1500 next week I hate Sundays though because I am a ball of anxiety but it's always worked out every week! Keep it up, you can do it.

Also, I always do two different line ups.

How did you go from $50 to $735 in three weeks playing 50/50s? My math says 100% win should be about $291.60. Even with double ups, I don't understand how cash games would get you beyond $400 in three weeks.

Haha, Good question: I added 50 bucks in my account on week 2's M/Th game and I've had tons of friend referrals at work. I get a free ticket and I've won money. That is how.

I guess I need to be more specific I also found out that I do stricktly double ups (whats the difference between 50/50 and double ups) Yes, I am that new with this. That is why I am so pumped up.

 

[jandyt]

I started with 50 dollars (won employee of the month) towards week 1. I've done 100% 50/50 and won every single week with hours of hard work and reading stats. Im currentl up 735.00 and am hoping to be at 1500 next week I hate Sundays though because I am a ball of anxiety but it's always worked out every week! Keep it up, you can do it.

Also, I always do two different line ups.

How did you go from $50 to $735 in three weeks playing 50/50s? My math says 100% win should be about $291.60. Even with double ups, I don't understand how cash games would get you beyond $400 in three weeks.

Haha, Good question: I added 50 bucks in my account on week 2's M/Th game and I've had tons of friend referrals at work. I get a free ticket and I've won money. That is how.

I guess I need to be more specific I also found out that I do stricktly double ups (whats the difference between 50/50 and double ups) Yes, I am that new with this. That is why I am so pumped up.

100 man $1double up 45 players win 2 bucks

100 man $1 50/50 50 players win $1.80 slightly easier to cash for slightly less cash

Myself I play about an even amount of both.

 

[Tennessee_ATO]

I've leaned towards double-ups over 50/50s because when I tracked the numbers last year I found that I needed ~1.5-2.0 more points to win the double-ups than the 50/50s at the same price point. Occasionally that difference matters, but the return is +20% (or +10% depending on how you view it [lengthy discussion thread on that from last year]). I think that is a higher return even with the occasional double-up whiff that would have been a hit in a 50/50. I've encouraged people to post scores needed to win contests each week in a thread to see if that holds true over a larger sample. Doesn't seem to have gained much traction though.

 

[jandyt]

I've leaned towards double-ups over 50/50s because when I tracked the numbers last year I found that I needed ~1.5-2.0 more points to win the double-ups than the 50/50s at the same price point. Occasionally that difference matters, but the return is +20% (or +10% depending on how you view it [lengthy discussion thread on that from last year]). I think that is a higher return even with the occasional double-up whiff that would have been a hit in a 50/50. I've encouraged people to post scores needed to win contests each week in a thread to see if that holds true over a larger sample. Doesn't seem to have gained much traction though.

So far this year on DK the difference to cash has varied from less than 3 points week 2 Thursday contests to 6 points week 1 Sunday contest in the ones I've played. Week 1 that 6 points made a big difference for me as I managed to win almost all my 50/50 and lose most of my doubles. Week 2 I crushed in both so would been better all doubles. If I see a trend where my ROI is better on doubles I may switch to more doubles. Currently for this year my ROI is lower on doubles, my best ROI is on X5 but its early so data is pretty limited.

Last year my ROI was similar on doubles and H2H's.

 

[Indy Speedway]

I've encouraged people to post scores needed to win contests each week in a thread to see if that holds true over a larger sample. Doesn't seem to have gained much traction though.

Is there a single thread where you have asked this? I would be very interested in this data as well.

I can share my first three weeks results. All of my entries were cash games, 50/50 and double ups, all $1 or $2. I would love to learn whether the total points cutoff is higher in the $5 and $10 games:

09.13 | Finished 14-19 of 50 and 43 of 100 | My score was 119.74 and the winning cutoff was 114.04

09.20 | Lost | My score was 82.26 and the winning cutoff was 101.86

09.27 | Finished 9-15 of 50 and 16-24 of 100 | My score was 154.90 and the winning cutoff was 129.08

Is this the information you were looking for?

 

[freeannyong]

I have moved to 90% h2hs and one lineup. This protects you much better from the downside of missing the cut line in a 50/50 or double up.

Limits your upside a bit but I'm much more comfortable knowing it's not really possible to bet out $50 and get $0 back like in the 50/50s.

 

[GilbertGrape]

Just started last week. I've been pretty lucky/successful so far, 14 entries, one loss. Turned 100 into $325. I'm mostly doing the rookie contests, which are like free money. I've also been successful in the triple ups, not even close to the cut line. Played a couple of bigger tournaments, won $50 for $10 in one and $100 for $25 in the million dollar contest.

I don't even know what h2hs are. Are they safer than the other kinds? I have very limited experience, but based on my experience so far I feel like I should just play the rookie contests as long as they let me and triple ups for the rest.

 

[Winning IS Everything]

I do mostly double ups and dabble in a few 50/50's and a couple of triple ups with high upside rosters. Won a bit each week. Best week was this week, only not cashing in 3 of 13 games.

 

[Wonderllama]

I definitely only stick to 50/50s. I just want to win most of the time. I know I'll never win major bucks, but as long as I'm profiting I'll be happy.

 

[Ebaker5]

I definitely only stick to 50/50s. I just want to win most of the time. I know I'll never win major bucks, but as long as I'm profiting I'll be happy.

This! The big money games and Big cardboard checks is all advertising genius. Hitting one of these tourneys is just like the lottery. Just like you think you know everything about football... Well I know those little white balls are going to pop up in an unpredictable fashion.

50/50's give you a better odds due to field size.

 

[godfatherofsoul0]

I started with a $200 bankroll this year and am up to approximately $800. My strategy is:

1) Put 100% in play every week.

2) 90% cash games; 10% gpp.

3) 100% of cash games are either 50/50 or double ups;

4) I stick to $3, $5, $10, or $20 cash games with at least 100 entries and single entry only;

5) I use 4 or 5 cash game lineups to diversify my risk.

6) Avoid stacks in cash games to minimize risk.

7) Focus on 2 QBs, 2 WRs, and 2 RBs that I really like and build around them but don't use the same RBs/ WRs in every lineup;

8) My gpp lineups are hail marys that I don't expect to win so I go extremely risky;

9) Double stacks in GPPs;

10) I like the contrarian lineups in GPPs as well.

Additional note: I think I had approximately 60 contests going last weekend.

 

[Ebaker5]

I have seen a few guys say "Play 100% of your Bankroll". Is this truly grinding or more or less risky bankroll management? I see the point in it because you are maximizing your return. But at the same time one bad week could potentially kill your bank? Not knocking it, just trying to understand it fully. As a small fish in this pond, I can't afford to blow 100% of my bankroll and lose it all.

 

[jandyt]

I have seen a few guys say "Play 100% of your Bankroll". Is this truly grinding or more or less risky bankroll management? I see the point in it because you are maximizing your return. But at the same time one bad week could potentially kill your bank? Not knocking it, just trying to understand it fully. As a small fish in this pond, I can't afford to blow 100% of my bankroll and lose it all.

I am assuming if you play 100% of your bank that either you are going with the strategy of if I have terrible week I'm done or your willing to replenish your bank if you have a bad week in which case its not really 100% of your bank.

 

[godfatherofsoul0]

Yeah, for me it's I'd replenish if I had a horrible week. However, it'd have to be a really bad week to wipe out everything. I typically have 4 or 5 lineups in 50 various cash games so there is some risk mitigation with the different lineups and games.

 

[addicted2ff]

Very interesting topic.

I think it's safe to say that our goal in cash games is to maximize ROI and maximize bankroll exposure while minimizing risk.

5050s and double ups maximizes ROI but also maximizes risk relative to heads up games.

Also, when going with only a single or a few lineups, that also maximizes ROI and maximizes risk.

It would seem the optimal approach would be to go with pairings that offset each other deficiencies. For example, going with a single or couple lineups in heads up games, or going with several lineups(6-10) in 5050s and double ups. Going with too many lineups in heads up games would minimize risk but would also minimize ROI. Conversely, going with a single or a couple lineups in 5050s/double ups would maximize ROI but would also maximize risk of ruin, and in order to offset that increased risk of ruin, bankroll exposure would have to be lessened.

I think the optimal approach, whether to play heads up with a single or couple lineups or to play 5050s/double ups with several lineups, depends on each person's preference and also on the options available for that week.