Gronk in with first rd tag or thielen with 9th rd tag? (1 Viewer)

[Grymlocke99]

Hey all, i have a 12 team, 1/2 pt PPR keeper league where we can keep two players without any penalty but a third keeper will be a round higher than drafted or a 9th rd if a FA pickup.  The penalty goes up a rd for each year you keep him.  Once you keep a player in the first round, you can't keep them the following year.  I won the league last  year so have the 12th overall pick.  However, i traded my second round pick and so would not pick again until the end of the third round.  Assume that all the elite players will be kept.

I have Gurley and Elliott as my two keepers.  I can keep Gronk but would lose my first round pick since i drafted him in second round last year.  Alternatively, i can keep Adam Thielen in the 9th rd.  I'm trying to trade Gronk but there isn't much interest.

I'm struggling with this.  Gronk will not make it back to me at end of of third round.  There's a good chance he doesn't fall to me at the end of first.  He's such an elite talent and without Edelman to start the year, he will have a huge role in the Pat's offense.  I can roll the dice to see if he falls or see if someone else does but keeping him would guarantee a nice three headed monster with the two RBs i have.  i would not be able to keep Gronk after this season.

Keeping Thielen will give me a WR at tremendous value.  There's a chance he falls to the end of the third but i don't think that likely.  I don't think he produces like Gronk, with the presence of Diggs and while there is clear separation between Gronk and everyone else, there isn't as much separation between Thielen and some of the other WRs that will be there starting at rd three if i were to keep Gronk.  I would be able to keep Thielen in 2019 at the cost of an 8th rd pick.

I'm leaning Gronk, despite the cost but could use some advice here.  Thanks all!

 

[downsouth]

Thielen for sure.

 

[Brisco54]

You are talking about keeping Thielen at a bargain rate for what, five years?  (At his current ADP, he would be a bargain as a 3rd round pick (SIX YEARS from now!) especially considering all the studs are gone)

OR 

Gronk for a single year?

I love Gronk, but that is simply not anywhere close.

 

[Gally]

What rounds did you get Gurley and Elliott?  How do you differentiate between your two "keepers" and the one guy you have to use a draft pick on? 

 

[Grymlocke99]

What rounds did you get Gurley and Elliott?  How do you differentiate between your two "keepers" and the one guy you have to use a draft pick on?

I drafted Elliot 2nd overall in his rookie year and Gurley 8th overall in his rookie year so they are the two players i keep without any penalty. No question Elliot and Gurley are kept as long as possible, since my league values RBs pretty highly.  Given the value of these two RBs in particular, i will keep them for a few more years.  I always look at the two guys i want to keep as the highest value guys who: 1) I couldn't keep the next year because they would have a 1st rd pick assigned to them; or 2) they wouldn't be available when i pick.  I picked Gurley and Elliot as part of a rebuild since my keepers weren't the greatest at that point.  I've won the league in back to back years and now want to three peat, which is why i was considering Gronk.  With Cousins at QB in MN for the next three years, i Thielen will have value but i don't know if Diggs will get the majority of targets or not.