Ilov80s
Footballguy
I don't think throwing Gronk into the back of a van would be all that easy. There's probably a reason why 6-5 260 pound men don't get kidnapped very often.
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GRONK MANIA! (1 Viewer)
- Thread starter hotboyz
- Start date
Omniscient Deity
Footballguy
Omniscient Deity
Footballguy
Moss was probably more explosive/dangerous between the 20's but in the red zone it's easily Gronk.
shadyridr
Footballguy
yeah but guys like rodgers and luck have the upside of 400 yds. Gronk's upside is only 100 yds. Would not draft.
Ilov80s
Footballguy
Good point. Plus, I doubt Gronk will even throw 1 TD pass this year.
Adam Harstad
Moderator
PPR:
Calvin - 21.0
Gronk - 18.8
Demaryius - 18.1
Julio - 17.9
Dez - 17.8
Antonio - 17.4
Jordy - 17.4
Marshall - 17.3
Green - 17.3
Graham - 17.0
TE Premium:
Gronk - 21.5
Calvin - 21.0
Graham - 19.8
Demaryius - 18.1
Julio - 17.9
Dez - 17.8
Antonio - 17.4
Jordy - 17.4
Marshall - 17.3
Green - 17.3
Yardage-heavy:
Calvin - 25.3
Julio - 21.2
Gronk - 21.2
Demaryius - 21.1
Jordy - 20.4
Dez - 20.2
Green - 20.1
Brown - 19.8
Marshall - 19.2
Gordon - 18.6
TD-only:
Gronk - 5.5
Dez - 4.8
Graham - 4.4
Jordy - 4.3
Calvin - 4.2
Demaryius - 4.0
Marshall - 3.6
Decker - 3.5
Green - 3.5
Julio - 3.2
Edit: This is FPPG since 2011, minimum 20 games played.
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Yeah, but what are his numbers in two quarterback leagues? -draquaman
Uncle Grandpa
Footballguy
What does it take to peel this guy from your roster in a dynasty league? A Julio or Dez straight up, or would it take even more?
It depends on the league and how heavily the TE is weighted but in a start 1 TE league, I think he is worth more than Julio or Dez to me only because he is in a class of his own. Julio and Dez are not. Gronk gives you an advantage over any other TE he could be starting against.
Ted Lange as your Bartender
Footballguy
Depends on the league, but honestly, almost nothing. His weekly advantage is so crushing and real and he's only 26.
Gandalf
Footballguy
It would take more to me. Something along the lines of a top WR and 2nd tier RB after ADP, Bell and Charles. That's just what it would take for me to move him. Basically I'm telling people he's untouchable because I doubt anyone (other than me would pay that price for him). He's going to win me my league if he stays healthy
bulger2holt
Footballguy
The only thing that worries me about Gronk is injury. He catches lots of balls running up the seam while looking back at the QB. This leaves his knees vulnerable for safeties to come in low. This already happened to him once before. This is the case for most TE's because they don't run the same type of routes as WR's. Other than that, he's the best player in FF imo.
Dinsy Ejotuz
Footballguy
For me the entire point of dynasty is to acquire guys like Gronk and then let them win titles for you. Why anyone would even consider moving a healthy HOF-caliber stud in a great situation during his prime is a mystery to me.
Run It Up
Footballguy
LittlePhatty
Footballguy
Personally, I think I'd take Luck if I wanted to build long term, probably the only player that could fetch Gronk from me in dynasty.
Tom Brady is 38. You could say Gronk's QB doesn't matter, but I think it does. I think most NFL QB's could easily hit the giant hulking TD machine in the red zone, but the 60 yards leading up to that are what Brady does better than most.
Run It Up
Footballguy
I agree with most of what you say. I do think Brady plays at least 3 more years. I also think if he didn't Garoppolo would be fine. Jimmy played a drive at the end of the KC game last year when the Pats got smoked in week four. Moved down the field just fine against a pretty stout KC Def, threw a touchdown to Gronk.
Adam Harstad
Moderator
More. Gronk scores like Julio or Dez, is younger than either, his tight end eligibility is a further advantage, and he's perhaps the only truly irreplaceable asset around. If you miss out on Julio, you can buy Dez. If you miss out on both, you can buy Green, or Brown, or Demaryius, or Beckham, or Evans. If you miss out on Andrew Luck, you can get comparable production from Aaron Rodgers. If price is determined by supply and demand, Gronk's should be the highest, because the supply of truly elite TE production is the shortest of any position.
He's my #1 overall dynasty player in standard and PPR, unless the QB scoring is particularly heavy, in which case I can see the case for Luck. I could also see an argument for Beckham, and that argument will become much more compelling if Beckham continues his hot play through this season. As it stands, I'd rather have Gronk's proven HoF-caliber play over four seasons.
Dinsy Ejotuz
Footballguy
What do your actuarial (not)VBD tables say about Gronk v Luck Adam? Got to think it's close?
Adam Harstad
Moderator
In PPR, They actually have Gronk 9th in value over worst starter and 5th in value over average starter. Luck ranks 1st in both.
I do think the raw formulas underrate Gronk a bit, though. Expected years remaining are based on historical patterns, and historically TEs haven't really been the same animal that they are today. They've got Gronk estimated at playing a year less than Julio despite being three months younger. If you use the WR aging patterns for Gronk, he essentially winds up in a three-way tie (with Beckham and Bell) for second in terms of value over an average starter. (For all calculations, I'm using a blanket 10% time discount- a steeper discount skews things towards Gronk, a shallower one towards Beckham). Factor in the positional scarcity and the fact that he's more proven, and he'd be my top choice of the three. Edit: not to mention the fact that Thursday night ups the likelihood that Gronk outperforms fantasy expectations for the year.
Regardless of what we do, Luck winds up substantially ahead of everyone else, but again, part of that is just how the formulas work. They don't really recognize that Luck is basically being projected for a career year. QB production bounces up and down a bit more from year to year than RBs and WRs do. If we assume that Luck's "true talent level" is really more on par with the #2 or #3 QB on a year-to-year basis, then he winds up right in the scrum with Beckham, Bell, and Gronk.
Don't have the numbers put in for Standard yet, but they're going to push Gronk above the WRs pretty easily. And TE premium just gets silly.
Edit: this also assumes a 12-team league that starts 1 QB, 2 RBs, 3 WRs, 1 TE, and 1 flex. Losing the flex bumps Gronk, since the flex lowers the RB/WR baseline. Also, larger leagues skew more towards the WRs/RBs, while smaller leagues skew more towards the QBs/TEs.
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Lott's Fingertip
Footballguy
Gronk gives a significant advantage over every other team in your league. No other player does that. Top WRs give an advantage over other teams without top WRs... but there are 5?6?7? more top WRs, so you have an advantage over fewer teams.
This is the first time I have owned Gronk anywhere, traded for him in a dynasty and drafted him at pick 10 in a PPR league with TEN point TDs. So far so good. ;-)
This is the first time I have owned Gronk anywhere, traded for him in a dynasty and drafted him at pick 10 in a PPR league with TEN point TDs. So far so good. ;-)
Dinsy Ejotuz
Footballguy
Yeah... that's about what I figured. But, as you say, the gap between Gronk and anyone else you can acquire is huge. While the gap between Luck and Roethlisberger (to pick someone who was easily purchased prior to last year) or someone else suitable isn't nearly as big (errr.. I don't think?).
minister
Footballguy
I take this deal. Fully confident that Luck is still a top QB after Gronkowski's NFL career is over ... I just don't see Gronkowski having a lengthy career such as Tony Gonzalez..
Tempted by Julio Jones, Antonio Brown, and Odell Beckham, and possibly Aaron Rodgers and Le'Veon Bell. FWIW, Gronk owner here in a keeper but do not play PPR.
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spider321
Footballguy
Gronk is a BEAST, but I'd take that deal.
Imo, there a 5 "super-elite" QB's in the NFL, who will be unanimous 1st ballot HOF'ers...
3 are "dinosaurs". (Manning, Brees, Brady)
1 turns 32 years-old in December. (Rodgers)
1 turned 26 today. (Luck)
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Run It Up
Footballguy
Gandalf
Footballguy
This is pretty much exactly how I feel. And why he is essentially untouchable on my roster.
Englishteacher
Footballguy
I just made a trade for him at our draft this year.(6 man dynasty keeper league - e.g. 72 players protected, start 1Qb, 2rb, 2Wr, 1te, k, def)Uncle Grandpa said:
(Draft consists of rookies and unprotected vets)
I Gave:
Jamaal Charles
Calvin Johnson
2017 2nd round round pick
For
Gronk
DeMarco Murray
2015 1st Round Pick (turned out to be Tannenhill)
2017 1st Round Pick I now own two Round 1 picks in the year Nick Chubb will be fantasy draft relevant if he declares after junior season (lotto ticket or trade material)
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ConnSKINS26
Footballguy
Don't really get what the other guy was thinking. I'd prefer Gronk to Calvin straight up, and if there even IS much of a price difference between Charles and Murray, those picks demolish it. You killed that trade, and I even say that as someone who is a Calvin owner and believer for a few more years.
No doubt. But i think he's factoring in that Luck will be playing at an elite level for another 12 to 14 years and Gronk for only 5 or 6. Plus, Gronk has his injury risk as well.
fruity pebbles
Footballguy
Sign me up for Gronk over Luck as well. Too easy to get a guy in Lucks ballpark ( Romo, Big Ben, Brady etc) for peanuts. Not gonna get Lucks longevity but then you grab another for pennies. Theres nobody even in Gronks ballpark.
LittlePhatty
Footballguy
Gronk has exceeded 100 yards in four games out of seven so far. He had just three 100 yard games in 2014.
On pace for a ridiculous total of 1,476 yards and 16 TDs.
I'll agree with anyone who says 16 TDs is unlikely, but then again I won't be surprised either. Brady is on a mission this year.
On pace for a ridiculous total of 1,476 yards and 16 TDs.
I'll agree with anyone who says 16 TDs is unlikely, but then again I won't be surprised either. Brady is on a mission this year.
Banger
Footballguy
He's good.
He's averaged .85 TDs/game which is essentially 14 / year. Ya, he's on pace for 91 - 1476 and 16 and which looks a lot like 2011 when he had 90 1327 and 17. He's healthy, the offense looks great and they have a chip on their shoulder. Nothing would surprise me with respect to his ceiling. Despite everyone game planning to stop him every single week he just goes out and dominates at will.
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Adam Harstad
Moderator
Gronk had 18 touchdowns in 2011. Elias went back after one game and ruled that one pass traveled ever so slightly backwards, changing it to a rushing score.
ConnSKINS26
Footballguy
Idk what's happening this week but last week they just didn't need to go crazy passing the ball, they had the game in hand from the very beginning and coasted.
mquinnjr
Footballguy
Not too crazy about seeing Chandler sneaking targets in here and there. Still, if your trade deadline hasn't passed and you can get any sort of discount due to what I'd chalk up to variance, get Gronk onto your roster.
Uncle Grandpa
Footballguy
GRONK M------------G SMASH
fruity pebbles
Footballguy
Bam
LittlePhatty
Footballguy
At least wait until the game is over to decide that you're disappointed.
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