Guillotine League Strategy (1 Viewer)

[zed2283]

As noted in my other post, I'm joining my first guillotine league this year (new league among friends, a first for all participants).  I haven't seen any discussion of this format in the Pool, and as it seems to be gaining some steam the last couple of years I thought it might be a good thread to start.

In case anyone hasn't heard of it before, it is a weekly total points format where the lowest scoring team of the week is eliminated from the season competition.  Their entire team then goes into the FA pool where they can be bid on by the remaining teams.  This happens each week until one team remains.

Right now I'm wondering if I should take less of a typical season-long approach and slant my draft toward early-season schedules.  Then each week will be a study session of the new FAs available and their schedules for that week.

Anyone have experience in this type of league?  What kind of strategies have you developed?

 

[Twenty-Four Eighty-Four]

As noted in my other post, I'm joining my first guillotine league this year (new league among friends, a first for all participants).  I haven't seen any discussion of this format in the Pool, and as it seems to be gaining some steam the last couple of years I thought it might be a good thread to start.

In case anyone hasn't heard of it before, it is a weekly total points format where the lowest scoring team of the week is eliminated from the season competition.  Their entire team then goes into the FA pool where they can be bid on by the remaining teams.  This happens each week until one team remains.

Right now I'm wondering if I should take less of a typical season-long approach and slant my draft toward early-season schedules.  Then each week will be a study session of the new FAs available and their schedules for that week.

Anyone have experience in this type of league?  What kind of strategies have you developed?

I've played in one. Early season schedules are big. Don't go for those guys who you think may break out late in the year, typically rookie RBs who you think will take over by week 8. Depth isn't huge early because you'll be cutting guys to make room for the free agents, and late in the season you want to keep an eye on who your opponent(s) are starting, need to pick up and things like that to try to play defense and keep away. Just a few quick thoughts.

 

[zed2283]

I've played in one. Early season schedules are big. Don't go for those guys who you think may break out late in the year, typically rookie RBs who you think will take over by week 8. Depth isn't huge early because you'll be cutting guys to make room for the free agents, and late in the season you want to keep an eye on who your opponent(s) are starting, need to pick up and things like that to try to play defense and keep away. Just a few quick thoughts.

It seems to me like I'm going to spend a ton of time on FA each week.  By the end of the season, everyone will be stacked anyway.

What's your feeling on how much of your FAAB to spend early season vs. late?

 

[Twenty-Four Eighty-Four]

It seems to me like I'm going to spend a ton of time on FA each week.  By the end of the season, everyone will be stacked anyway.

What's your feeling on how much of your FAAB to spend early season vs. late?

Honestly, unless you're struggling and really think you could get bounced united you grab a mediocre player, I'd hold until there are legit studs. You'll win some, you'll lose some. Good news is if you lose some, you win in a way because you'll keep your FAAB. Just the way I've played.

 

[zed2283]

Honestly, unless you're struggling and really think you could get bounced united you grab a mediocre player, I'd hold until there are legit studs. You'll win some, you'll lose some. Good news is if you lose some, you win in a way because you'll keep your FAAB. Just the way I've played.

There will be legit studs every week.

 

[Twenty-Four Eighty-Four]

There will be legit studs every week.

I guess my point was, if you trust your drafting and are honest with the outlook of your team, you'll make it past the first bunch of weeks first, probably pretty easily. As teams are picking guys up and then getting eliminated, there will be a wider range of studs available with less teams bidding who may have spent a majority of their budget early. Can be a risky strategy but it's paid off for me in the past. Haven't won yet, but I've always made I to the top 3 in the 4 years I've done this type of league.

 

[zed2283]

I guess my point was, if you trust your drafting and are honest with the outlook of your team, you'll make it past the first bunch of weeks first, probably pretty easily. As teams are picking guys up and then getting eliminated, there will be a wider range of studs available with less teams bidding who may have spent a majority of their budget early. Can be a risky strategy but it's paid off for me in the past. Haven't won yet, but I've always made I to the top 3 in the 4 years I've done this type of league.

Ok, I get it now.  That makes sense and one of the things I've been bouncing around in my head.  But the reality is, this whole thing comes down to FA, right?

 

[Twenty-Four Eighty-Four]

Ok, I get it now.  That makes sense and one of the things I've been bouncing around in my head.  But the reality is, this whole thing comes down to FA, right?

Absolutely. Build yourself a squad for the first few weeks. Focus on starting lineup, not bench, and value (for the most part) and what this dude could be. Focus on the starting lineup requirements, and upgrade when possible.

 

[zed2283]

Absolutely. Build yourself a squad for the first few weeks. Focus on starting lineup, not bench, and value (for the most part) and what this dude could be. Focus on the starting lineup requirements, and upgrade when possible.

Seems like it quickly turns into DFS.

 

[Twenty-Four Eighty-Four]

Seems like it quickly turns into DFS.

Yeah if you last a while, lineup decisions can get very difficult. But if trades are allowed, you're willing to give up a little more knowing you can replace a guy soon if things work out.

 

[zed2283]

Is there any resource that shows strength-of-schedule by weeks or quarter season?  Trying to figure out who has an easier early schedule for drafting purposes.

 

[Hot Sauce Guy]

SOS is big, yes.

But also depth. I’d take a 3rd TE & a 3rd QB if you have the roster space. 

The difference between carrying a 3rd QB & one you pluck off waivers could be a point or two if your QB1 gets hurt just in time for QB2’s BYE. 
 

and every point helps. It’s like the old hiking saying….you don’t have to be faster than the bear, you just have to be faster than your friends. 

 

[zed2283]

SOS is big, yes.

But also depth. I’d take a 3rd TE & a 3rd QB if you have the roster space. 

The difference between carrying a 3rd QB & one you pluck off waivers could be a point or two if your QB1 gets hurt just in time for QB2’s BYE. 
 

and every point helps. It’s like the old hiking saying….you don’t have to be faster than the bear, you just have to be faster than your friends. 

Specifically looking for SoS for the first quarter of the season, but my guess is there's nowhere to find that information.  Even better if it were by position.

 

[Twenty-Four Eighty-Four]

Specifically looking for SoS for the first quarter of the season, but my guess is there's nowhere to find that information.  Even better if it were by position.

Honestly, I don't know where exactly to find it, but I've heard it mentioned on a few podcasts I listened too. Not necessarily SOS but "oh this guy has a great/terrible first four games to start the year" type thing.

 

[zed2283]

Oh my, look at this.

 

[zed2283]

Drafting in about 3 weeks, drew the 1.11 pick.  18 teams so that means I pick again 14 picks later at 2.8.  And then again 21 picks later.

Man, that's going to be crazy.

 

[zed2283]

Drafted last night.  18 teams, 14 rounds, and it was a grind.  I was able to fill out a starting lineup but things dried up fast.  I had the 11th pick and took S.Diggs.  I was going back and forth, ended up with S.Diggs and J.Robinson, but as it turned out if I'd have taken Ekeler I could have come back with J.Jefferson.  So I don't know if that was a screw up or not, guess we'll see.

QB - R.Tannehill, T.Lance
RB - J.Robinson, D.Harris, Ty Johnson, Ty'Son Williams, J.Jackson
WR - S.Diggs, C.Davis, J.Waddle, M.Jones
TE - K.Pitts, T.Kroft, J.Johnson

 

[zed2283]

I survived the "cut" week 1.  Here are the players who got thrown into the pool:

QB Derek Carr
QB Jameis Winston
RB Le'Veon Bell
RB Ronald Jones
RB J.D. McKissic
RB Leonard Fournette
WR Julio Jones
WR Keke Coutee
WR Allen Lazard
WR A.J. Green
WR Mike Evans
WR Davante Adams
WR Adam Humphries
TE Robert Tonyan

I finished 4th in scoring for the week, so not sure I need to try too hard for any of these guys.

 

[jacobo_moses]

So I have a starting roster of

Dak P

Nick Chubb

Jamaal Williams or Ty'son Williams; Sermon

Mike Evans

Tyler Lockett 

Pittman WR

Waddle WR (Slayton and Van Jefferson)

Zach Ertz

The team that got axed had

Daniel Jones, Carr, Burrow

Ronald Jones, Elijah Mitchell

AJ Brown, DJ Moore, S.Diggs

Mark Andrew's

Who should I go after hot and heavy ? And how much of my 1000 budget too? I'm new to this. I was the 3rd highest scoring team out of 18. 

 

[jacobo_moses]

Bump

Help please

 

[Golden Gopher]

I'd look at it this way.  You will probably survive Week 2 with the lineup you have in place.  But, that doesn't necessarily mean don't bid on anybody.  Throw some bids on anybody who would improve your roster, if for no other reason than you're "keeping the rest of the league honest."  If you don't bid on Andrews, for example, and somebody snags him for 3% of their budget, you're going to wish you had bid 5%.  Unlikely that happens, but at least if you bid you know it won't, right?  

Same with Brown, Diggs, and even DJ Moore (who is an upgrade over Jefferson).  It doesn't hurt to bid.  Just don't go crazy.  Your strategy is to improve where you can by bidding moderately.

In terms of budget, if you spend 20% and land Diggs, you're essentially replacing Pittman with Diggs.  That's pretty significant.  As for Andrews, I'd be more conservative.  He's probably better than Ertz, but there's only two TE's I'm dropping large bids on (Kelce and Waller).  After that, maybe Hock.  Everybody else, I'll upgrade by bidding modestly, but I'm not spending a bunch to slightly/maybe improve.  

I would bid enough that I could land Diggs/Andrews for 30%, Brown/Andrews for 25%, or all three for 45%.  Best case, other people spend more than that, and you still have your full budget.  "Worst case," you upgrade to having two top-10 WR's and a top-5 TE, and still have more than half of your budget for later.  Just remember that there will be similar players available every week.   Bet what you would be happy to spend, but no need to bet more than that (you're not desperate to land anybody).

 

[Golden Gopher]

You want difference-makers.  I'd spend $600-700 to land Kelce or Waller.  Sounds crazy, but I did a few guillotine leagues last year, and the winner had Kelce just about every time.  He was like having an extra WR1 at a position where everybody else is starting a WR4.  

 

[zed2283]

I survived the "cut" week 1.  Here are the players who got thrown into the pool:

QB Derek Carr
QB Jameis Winston
RB Le'Veon Bell
RB Ronald Jones
RB J.D. McKissic
RB Leonard Fournette
WR Julio Jones
WR Keke Coutee
WR Allen Lazard
WR A.J. Green
WR Mike Evans
WR Davante Adams
WR Adam Humphries
TE Robert Tonyan

I finished 4th in scoring for the week, so not sure I need to try too hard for any of these guys.

Davonte Adams ended up going for $502 to one of the more desperate teams.  I think the next few were in the $100s.

 

[zed2283]

Survived week 2.  Here are the players of note thrown into the FA pool:

QB A.Rodgers
RB J.Taylor
TE D.Waller

Verrrrrry interesting.  Most teams still have $1000 left.  I have no idea what to bid on any of these guys, though Waller would seem to be the top guy.  I've got Tannehill, and he hasn't been that good, so I'm definitely interested in Rodgers also.

 

[tigerz]

Survived week 2.  Here are the players of note thrown into the FA pool:

QB A.Rodgers
RB J.Taylor
TE D.Waller

Verrrrrry interesting.  Most teams still have $1000 left.  I have no idea what to bid on any of these guys, though Waller would seem to be the top guy.  I've got Tannehill, and he hasn't been that good, so I'm definitely interested in Rodgers also.

fwiw chopped podcast said to bid 30 to 80 as desperation for rosters last week. Reason being that qb is easiest position to fill so you shouldn’t spend a lot on them.

my league just dropped Brady. Finding it hard to restrain myself when I lost my only qb tua and probably end up picking up brissett quality player. I do have highest points now though and feel good about my team otherwise.

 

[facook]

I did 3 G leagues for funsies this year.  I can attest: DO NOT STACK.  Dak/CeeDee/Gallup stack.....cut this week.

Tyreek/CEH 1st/2nd round picks this year....cut this week.  Ugh.

I have one team left.  Tommie Brady carrying me...

 

[zed2283]

Acquired Gronk for my first transaction of the season, $251.  He'll replace Pitts in my lineup for now.

Just missed out on Henderson.  Mixon went for a whopping $600 and something.

 

[Gally]

League just started for week 3.  Made it through and got Ceedee for $352 (next highest was $344 so a almost perfect bid).  Dalvin went for $555. Monty for $273, Diontae Johnson for $222 (a bit of an overbid...next highest was $84)  Dak went for $52 (bargain but went to the guy with Kyler).  

Starting lineup (PPR) is 

QB - Brady

RB - Mixon & Gibson

WR - Ceedee & Cooks

Flex - Marquese Brown & Renfrow

TE - Logan Thomas

Bench - Teddy B, Hines, Darrel Williams, Cephus, Gallup, Engram

 

[zed2283]

Mine is:

QB - Tannehill
RB - J.Robinson, D.Harris
WR - Diggs, C.Davis
Flex - M.Jones, Waddle
TE - Gronk

Bench - Lance, Ty'Son, B.Bolden, T.Johnson, K.Pitts, J.Johnson

 

[NotSmart]

Sounds like a lot of fun. 

 

[Tha Guru]

I'm in 2 leagues.  I'm still alive in both which can be attributed to having a good draft.  My strategy is to hold out as long as possible on spending money.  I know it's a risky strategy but I think if I can catch some breaks I'll be able to stack my team towards end when the money pool dries up from teams getting cut.  It's a real fun format to play.

 

[tigerz]

New to this but I already love it. I don’t hold. I bid every week on pretty much every player. My goal is to not let anyone go for cheap. If a guy is a starter and goes for less than 50 and I get him I’m fine with that. I can take 20 of those shots. Really want to force people to overpay and buy value. Having depth will get me through bye weeks. Guys like Tim Patrick and pollard provide a lot of bang for your buck. Ended up with Damien Harris this week for 44 while watching Gaskin and Gordon go for 200. Also helps when you draft well and have 4 top 10 wr.

 

[zed2283]

Had my first near-death experience. I couldn't lose, so that was good. But still unnerving. Everyone seems to be getting better and my team isn't. I spent that money a couple weeks ago to get Gronk and so far that was a waste. QB is killing me and J.Allen hit the FA pool, along with Kupp and Barkley. Trying to put strong bids in but now it's sort of difficult because not everyone has money. Two QB needy teams have more money than me so I'm just crossing my fingers.

 

[tigerz]

Had my first near-death experience. I couldn't lose, so that was good. But still unnerving. Everyone seems to be getting better and my team isn't. I spent that money a couple weeks ago to get Gronk and so far that was a waste. QB is killing me and J.Allen hit the FA pool, along with Kupp and Barkley. Trying to put strong bids in but now it's sort of difficult because not everyone has money. Two QB needy teams have more money than me so I'm just crossing my fingers.

How much FAAB you have left? J. Allen and T. Brady went for ~$200 in my league out of $1k. I just play the matchups with QBs. I don't think QB position is a must splurge. Enough decent streamers to get you by and more and more QBs will be available each week.

 

[zed2283]

How much FAAB you have left? J. Allen and T. Brady went for ~$200 in my league out of $1k. I just play the matchups with QBs. I don't think QB position is a must splurge. Enough decent streamers to get you by and more and more QBs will be available each week.

I've got $747 left. Rodgers went for $225 a few weeks ago and Hurts went for $276 last week. Everyone else has a QB and it's hurting me (I've got Tannehill and Lance). 

Sure, there's going to be more everything around each week but I have to be around to see it. At any rate, there are still 13 teams left so not much to stream.

 

[Hurl Bruce]

I broke the seal and spent money on Booker as an emergency RB.  I did not bid high enough to get Najee Harris.

My team looks ugly to me, but it's good enough with their floors to survive so far.  I have the most money left in the league still and am  hoping prices drop to reflect other teams' balances.

 

[tigerz]

I've got $747 left. Rodgers went for $225 a few weeks ago and Hurts went for $276 last week. Everyone else has a QB and it's hurting me (I've got Tannehill and Lance). 

Sure, there's going to be more everything around each week but I have to be around to see it. At any rate, there are still 13 teams left so not much to stream.

Still better than me. I have Burrow and Fields and started off with ONLY Tua... My options when Tua got injured were Brissett and Davis Mills. Took everything in me to resist spending 400 on brady that week lol.

The issue with Allen is he's out next week isn't he? So you get him for one week then get chopped the week after. I'd probably go 150-200 for Allen and if he goes for 400 i'd just hope the guy gets chopped the week after and take him for cheaper.

 

[tigerz]

I broke the seal and spent money on Booker as an emergency RB.  I did not bid high enough to get Najee Harris.

My team looks ugly to me, but it's good enough with their floors to survive so far.  I have the most money left in the league still and am  hoping prices drop to reflect other teams' balances.

How much did booker go for in your league. I got a bid on him as a consolation prize as I'm not willing to spend $400 on low RB1/high RB2 types.

 

[Hurl Bruce]

How much did booker go for in your league. I got a bid on him as a consolation prize as I'm not willing to spend $400 on low RB1/high RB2 types.

I got Booker for $43.  Harris went for $523!

If Cook is held out one more week, it will have been a waste of sorts as I have Mattison.  I've been expecting some prices to come down, but so far they're still really high.

Currently rolling with:

QB: Hurts, Jalen PHI 

RB: Booker, Devontae NYG, Carter, Michael NYJ, Davis, Mike ATL, Harris, Damien NEP, Herbert, Khalil CHI, Mattison, Alexander MIN, Perine, Samaje CIN RB,  Williams, Damien CHI 

WR: Bateman, Rashod BAL WR, McLaurin, Terry WAS, Meyers, Jakobi NEP, Moore, Rondale ARI, Sanders, Emmanuel BUF, 

TE: Conklin, Tyler MIN, Kelce, Travis KCC

It's a really ugly squad, IMO, but it's like 5th highest scoring on average.

 

[zed2283]

Still better than me. I have Burrow and Fields and started off with ONLY Tua... My options when Tua got injured were Brissett and Davis Mills. Took everything in me to resist spending 400 on brady that week lol.

The issue with Allen is he's out next week isn't he? So you get him for one week then get chopped the week after. I'd probably go 150-200 for Allen and if he goes for 400 i'd just hope the guy gets chopped the week after and take him for cheaper.

I'm not disagreeing with you in theory, I'm just not sure I'll get to Allen's bye week with Tannehill at the helm. Week 7 I'll have to use Tannehill anyway, and still also be out Diggs and J.Robinson. Luckily I picked up Darryl Williams late last week so hopefully he'll help cover it. Going for Kupp this week too but there's a guy going all in on him I think.

 

[tigerz]

I got Booker for $43.  Harris went for $523!

If Cook is held out one more week, it will have been a waste of sorts as I have Mattison.  I've been expecting some prices to come down, but so far they're still really high.

Wow 43. I don't think I could do that. He's not a guy you play with confidence. He's a desperation play and only 1-2 weeks at best. I still don't know whether I'd start him over a guy like Collins / Harris. 

I get the Harris thing though. He has so much volume he's safe. Cook is on sale in my league this week. Expecting him to go for $600. 

I feel you though, I'm trying to save as much as I can and hope I survive long enough for a tier 1 RB to drop to $100 or below and stack my team.

 

[tigerz]

I'm not disagreeing with you in theory, I'm just not sure I'll get to Allen's bye week with Tannehill at the helm. Week 7 I'll have to use Tannehill anyway, and still also be out Diggs and J.Robinson. Luckily I picked up Darryl Williams late last week so hopefully he'll help cover it. Going for Kupp this week too but there's a guy going all in on him I think.

Good luck man. I was sure jealous of the other teams who picked up elite QBs as they didn't have to worry about getting chopped so I definitely get where you're coming from. Williams was a good pickup, very nice.

 

[zed2283]

Good luck man. I was sure jealous of the other teams who picked up elite QBs as they didn't have to worry about getting chopped so I definitely get where you're coming from. Williams was a good pickup, very nice.

Well I was definitely expecting more from Tannehill. 

 

[Hurl Bruce]

Good luck man. I was sure jealous of the other teams who picked up elite QBs as they didn't have to worry about getting chopped so I definitely get where you're coming from. Williams was a good pickup, very nice.

I grabbed Hurts in the 5th round.  He doesn't have a bye until week 14 and is the only QB to post a QB1 week every week so far.  He has definitely helped me survive the early weeks so far.

 

[zed2283]

Allen went for $512 (I was next highest bid at $321) and Kupp went for $404 (next highest bid was $311).

Looks like I'm going to have to rely on Tannehill at least one more week...

The guy who got Kupp has some major issues this week, so I may be going for his Kyler Murray next week.

 

[tigerz]

Allen went for $512 (I was next highest bid at $321) and Kupp went for $404 (next highest bid was $311).

Looks like I'm going to have to rely on Tannehill at least one more week...

The guy who got Kupp has some major issues this week, so I may be going for his Kyler Murray next week.

Yeah, I feel you, same here. I missed out on everything this week in my league. Now I have second highest FAAB. Hoping it pays off if I survive...

Cook 500
Robinson 400
Fournette 340
Booker 100
Dak 175

I did get Allen Robinson for 3 bucks and Wentz for 2. lol.

 

[tigerz]

I grabbed Hurts in the 5th round.  He doesn't have a bye until week 14 and is the only QB to post a QB1 week every week so far.  He has definitely helped me survive the early weeks so far.

That was a nice play. I honestly didn't believe in him so I skipped over him. Really regret that now. I keep hoping great QBs will eventually drop to 50-100 each since it should be easiest spot to fill.

 

[tigerz]

Allen went for $512 (I was next highest bid at $321) and Kupp went for $404 (next highest bid was $311).

Looks like I'm going to have to rely on Tannehill at least one more week...

The guy who got Kupp has some major issues this week, so I may be going for his Kyler Murray next week.

Kyle Murray would be awesome. I'd think you would get him for cheaper than 512 for sure.

 

[zed2283]

Kyle Murray would be awesome. I'd think you would get him for cheaper than 512 for sure.

I'm second in FAAB now too. Heinicke and Wentz were both dropped, so maybe I do have some streaming options. Both are ranked higher than Tannehill this week.

 

[tigerz]

I'm second in FAAB now too. Heinicke and Wentz were both dropped, so maybe I do have some streaming options. Both are ranked higher than Tannehill this week.

Yeah, you should be fine this week. I do agree Tannehill is no longer a must start, you got to play the matchups and go for floor. As long as they put up like 20 points the QB won't lose you the week. Won't win you, but hopefully you got other studs playing. 

The way I see it, these teams with no money left that aren't stacked with top 10 talent at every position won't end up with #1. And the payouts are so top heavy that you really aim for #1 or bust. So there's really no point in surviving and then getting axed before playoffs. You can't play not to lose, you need to play to win.

You can spend as much as you want as long as you have a plan for how to load your team. It's really about money management. Spending $500 on a QB and not having 2 elite RB and 2 elite WR will put you in the hole.