Gurley Handcuff: Malcolm Brown vs John Kelly (1 Viewer)

[tombonneau]

So as a Gurley dynasty owner I'm obviously interested in who will be the handcuff. I just assumed it would remain Brown who has looked decent in his limited sample set. But I'm seeing Kelly having third round rookie draft grades. Are people just assuming a sixth-round picks is the automatic number 2 back? I already own Brown and honestly don't know much about Kelly and certainly wasn't planning on spending a third on him.

From what I'm reading of camp buzz nothing is really coming out that distinguishes either back which has me leaning toward the vet. Of course, they could end up signing Demarco or something and its all moot.

Any trenchant pool insight would be much appreciated.

 

[BoltBacker]

So as a Gurley dynasty owner I'm obviously interested in who will be the handcuff. I just assumed it would remain Brown who has looked decent in his limited sample set. But I'm seeing Kelly having third round rookie draft grades. Are people just assuming a sixth-round picks is the automatic number 2 back? I already own Brown and honestly don't know much about Kelly and certainly wasn't planning on spending a third on him.

In the draft community there were definitely people that thought Kelly might get caught in a deep RB draft class and get drafted lower than his potential might suggest he should be drafted.

Another factor is some people think Kelly may possess a skill set to compliment Gurley and actually get on the field even when Gurley was healthy. The Rams signed Lance Dunbar with a role for him in the offense in mind but he just never seemed to recover from his injuries to the point he was the same guy imo. If McVay still envisions the role he brought Dunbar in to fill in that offense, it would make sense that he could see Kelly filling that role now.

Brown was an interesting prospect and was on my radar when he came out of Texas, but keep in mind he went undrafted. So in that sense it's not completely unreasonable to expect a 6th rounder to come in and challenge him.

If there was an injury to Gurley I would expect close to a 50/50 split between Brown/Kelly, but if Gurley is healthy I would expect Kelly to get more touches than Brown. That makes Kelly the more valuable option in the mind of a lot of people.

Just my $0.02 as a guy that was very interested where both Brown and Kelly would end up coming out of college.

 

[tombonneau]

Wow great analysis @BoltBacker. 

Especially the Dunbar role comparison. I'll do some more research on Kelly and keep my eyes on camp updates. 

 

[Tau837]

From Rotoworld:

Rams drafted Tennessee RB John Kelly with the No. 176 overall pick in the NFL draft.

Kelly (5’10/216) sat behind Jalen Hurd and Alvin Kamara before taking over as the Vols’ lead back as a 2017 junior, logging a 189/778/9 rushing line and 37/299/0 receiving. Kelly averaged only 4.1 yards per carry in his breakout year, however, and a whopping 27% of his career runs went for no gain or negative yards. He managed a 4.64 forty-yard dash before the draft. Although Kelly’s production and college efficiency don’t stand out, his tape shows an innate tackle breaker with one of the highest passing-game ceilings in this running back class. NFL Films’ Greg Cosell compared Kelly to Devonta Freeman. Unfortunately, Kelly slipped to the sixth round and will lack opportunity in L.A. as he competes with Malcolm Brown for backup work behind Todd Gurley. Apr 28 - 3:38 PM

Brown has been in the league for 3 years and has this career production to date: 85/302/1 (3.6 ypc) rushing and 13/97/0 (7.5 ypr) receiving on 15 targets, with 2 fumbles. Obviously he has played behind Gurley, but that is not particularly impressive production, and IMO Kelly is likely to surpass him for some of the reasons @BoltBacker stated.

I own Gurley on one dynasty team co-owned with @Bruce Hammond. When rosters expanded, we had the option to bid on Kelly (not drafted in rookie draft) or Brown, and we chose Kelly.

 

[JohnnyU]

Kelly

 

[Bronco Billy]

From Rotoworld:

Brown has been in the league for 3 years and has this career production to date: 85/302/1 (3.6 ypc) rushing and 13/97/0 (7.5 ypr) receiving on 15 targets, with 2 fumbles. Obviously he has played behind Gurley, but that is not particularly impressive production, and IMO Kelly is likely to surpass him for some of the reasons @BoltBacker stated.

I own Gurley on one dynasty team co-owned with @Bruce Hammond. When rosters expanded, we had the option to bid on Kelly (not drafted in rookie draft) or Brown, and we chose Kelly.

So you think 4.1 ypc in college with over 1/4 of his carries going for 0 yds or less during his best year is better production than Brown?

 

Odd.

.