"He ain't doin' that next year..." (1 Viewer)

[rizzler]

Like the title says...who is the one guy you are 'avoiding', or a guy you believe will not repeat this seasons numbers (for better or worse)

Me - Cam Newton. I see the rushing TDs going way down... no reason why.

Also, I think Nicks' TD production, or lack there of, will not be repeated next season... he'll hit 10+ again.

What sayest the pool?

 

[Dentist]

Victor Cruz - won't happen again.

hundreds of those yards and a few of those TD's were so fluky.

could easily fall back to 700-800 and 4-5

 

[bonesman]

Arian Foster

 

[shadyridr]

jordy nelson seemed kinda flukey

 

[FUBAR]

Chris Johnson, rebound year

 

[shadyridr]

Victor Cruz - won't happen again.hundreds of those yards and a few of those TD's were so fluky.could easily fall back to 700-800 and 4-5

the guy is very talented. he makes thosebig plays happen cuz of his athleticism. i wouldnt sleep on him next year

 

[scrumptrulescent]

Proclaiming the regression of Cam Newton is becoming pretty popular.

Marshawn Lynch isn't doing it next year.

 

[E_Smith]

Agree on Cruz. I think he'll fall back to 15-25.

Sproles. I think Ingram gets more carries and catches.

 

[butcher boy]

Victor Cruz - won't happen again.hundreds of those yards and a few of those TD's were so fluky.could easily fall back to 700-800 and 4-5

the guy is very talented. he makes thosebig plays happen cuz of his athleticism. i wouldnt sleep on him next year

Except to put up those same numbers, he's relying on back to back career years from Manning.

 

[Steed]

I said the same thing about the Gronk last year, doh!

 

[sihaokills]

Austin Collie has a huge bounce back year

 

[rizzler]

Arian Foster

youre right, his numbers were too low this season

 

[Ballstein]

Sproles. I think Ingram gets more carries and catches.

nope. they tried that in the begiining of the season. wasn't too smart.

 

[Sabertooth]

I think Andy Dalton comes back to Earth. Steve Smith as well.

 

[5-ish Finkle]

This is a layup....

Gronkowski doesn't get anywhere near the TDs he did this year in '12.

 

[rizzler]

This is a layup....Gronkowski doesn't get anywhere near the TDs he did this year in '12.

Did you think this through over a cup of Duncan Hills coffee?I feel like Gronk will be nearly as good... Who knows. He's gonna be a risk/reward in the 2nd round, where he'll likely go

 

[packersfan]

Sproles. I think Ingram gets more carries and catches.

nope. they tried that in the begiining of the season. wasn't too smart.

The Saints went 7-2 in games when Ingram had double-digit touches and were 5-1 in games when he got double-digit rushing attempts. Giving the ball more to Ingram didn't hurt the team one bit.That said, I don't think the Saints deviate greatly from their backfield approach this season. Given how well it worked I don't see a reason why they should.

 

[E_Smith]

Sproles. I think Ingram gets more carries and catches.

nope. they tried that in the begiining of the season. wasn't too smart.

The Saints went 7-2 in games when Ingram had double-digit touches and were 5-1 in games when he got double-digit rushing attempts. Giving the ball more to Ingram didn't hurt the team one bit.That said, I don't think the Saints deviate greatly from their backfield approach this season. Given how well it worked I don't see a reason why they should.

Because they can disguise the pass better if they leave Ingram in the game. I think its just a matter of him getting more comfortable with the whole playbook. The lockout probably played a big factor in this.

 

[packersfan]

Sproles. I think Ingram gets more carries and catches.

nope. they tried that in the begiining of the season. wasn't too smart.

The Saints went 7-2 in games when Ingram had double-digit touches and were 5-1 in games when he got double-digit rushing attempts. Giving the ball more to Ingram didn't hurt the team one bit.That said, I don't think the Saints deviate greatly from their backfield approach this season. Given how well it worked I don't see a reason why they should.

Because they can disguise the pass better if they leave Ingram in the game. I think its just a matter of him getting more comfortable with the whole playbook. The lockout probably played a big factor in this.

I agree with all of that. I like Ingram a lot and I think he'll be more involved next season. But I don't see him consistently being a 15-20 touch per game guy as long as Thomas and Sproles are healthy. The Saints have a good thing going with those three RBs and because of that I don't anticipate them making major changes to their approach.

 

[BobbyLayne]

Victor Cruz - won't happen again.hundreds of those yards and a few of those TD's were so fluky.could easily fall back to 700-800 and 4-5

the guy is very talented. he makes thosebig plays happen cuz of his athleticism. i wouldnt sleep on him next year

Gonna be a great value pick.Folks discount him because he wasn't drafted. I bet a lot of those people didn't see him play much. Playmaker, big time.

 

[rizzler]

Victor Cruz - won't happen again.hundreds of those yards and a few of those TD's were so fluky.could easily fall back to 700-800 and 4-5

the guy is very talented. he makes thosebig plays happen cuz of his athleticism. i wouldnt sleep on him next year

Gonna be a great value pick.Folks discount him because he wasn't drafted. I bet a lot of those people didn't see him play much. Playmaker, big time.

Is he a value pick? odds are he goes in the 2/3 round.... 4th seems unlikely to me. Nicks is way too good to be "shut out" again, he just had some untimely drops... Cruz is good. very good. But this season will be hard to repeat. Ill let others risk him in rnd 2/3, where id gladly take nicks... and if cruz falls to 4/5, ill jump on him

 

[BobbyLayne]

This is a layup....Gronkowski doesn't get anywhere near the TDs he did this year in '12.

Probably true - but he could have scored 6 less TDs this year and still been the TE1.He could have scored 2 TDs all year and still been the TE2.Just sayin'...

 

[rizzler]

This is a layup....Gronkowski doesn't get anywhere near the TDs he did this year in '12.

Probably true - but he could have scored 6 less TDs this year and still been the TE1.He could have scored 2 TDs all year and still been the TE2.Just sayin'...

so sick.

 

[unckeyherb]

Like the title says...who is the one guy you are 'avoiding', or a guy you believe will not repeat this seasons numbers (for better or worse)Me - Cam Newton. I see the rushing TDs going way down... no reason why.Also, I think Nicks' TD production, or lack there of, will not be repeated next season... he'll hit 10+ again.What sayest the pool?

I see no reason for Cam to not repeat his numbers. As he continues to grow as a passer, able to read defenses, his rushing should continue to excel as well. Consider that a good number of his rushing TD's were designed and called plays, not him scrambling and making something out of nothing. I think he will continue to be used as a weapon at the goal line. now take everything I just wrote about him and throw it for my next comment. I don't think Shady is going to score 20 TDs again. His numbers from last year were 1,600 YFS and 9 TDs. This year he went for 1,600 YFS and 20 TDs. Something about that doesn't make sense and I think he will slide back to approx 10-12 TDs. Still very good, but not 20. I hope I am wrong as I am an eagles fan, though I don't own him.

 

[⚡DEADHEAD⚡]

jordy nelson seemed kinda flukey

 

[BobbyLayne]

Victor Cruz - won't happen again.

hundreds of those yards and a few of those TD's were so fluky.

could easily fall back to 700-800 and 4-5

the guy is very talented. he makes thosebig plays happen cuz of his athleticism. i wouldnt sleep on him next year

Gonna be a great value pick.

Folks discount him because he wasn't drafted. I bet a lot of those people didn't see him play much. Playmaker, big time.

Is he a value pick? odds are he goes in the 2/3 round.... 4th seems unlikely to me. Nicks is way too good to be "shut out" again, he just had some untimely drops... Cruz is good. very good. But this season will be hard to repeat.

Ill let others risk him in rnd 2/3, where id gladly take nicks... and if cruz falls to 4/5, ill jump on him

You think Victor Cruz will be in the top 24 picks, one of the first 8 wideouts taken? Seriously?He's the WR3 in our PPR league. The guy who was WR1 in 2011 2010 was going 4th/5th round this year, generally around 18-20. I happen to think Cruz will have a better follow up statement than Brandon Lloyd - and for sure, his situation is more stable.

[*]Johnson

[*]Johnson

[*]Wallace

[*]Fitz

[*]VJax

[*]Jordy

[*]Jennings

[*]Nicks

[*]Dez

[*]NOT MENTIONED: Welker, Smith, Marshall, Colston, Wayne, Austin, Bowe

There will probably be 16-18 WRs taken in the first four rounds. I could see calling Cruz a 3rd/4th rounder, and I do think that is good value there. But no way in hell is he getting taken in the 2nd.

 

[rizzler]

Victor Cruz - won't happen again.

hundreds of those yards and a few of those TD's were so fluky.

could easily fall back to 700-800 and 4-5

the guy is very talented. he makes thosebig plays happen cuz of his athleticism. i wouldnt sleep on him next year

Gonna be a great value pick.

Folks discount him because he wasn't drafted. I bet a lot of those people didn't see him play much. Playmaker, big time.

Is he a value pick? odds are he goes in the 2/3 round.... 4th seems unlikely to me. Nicks is way too good to be "shut out" again, he just had some untimely drops... Cruz is good. very good. But this season will be hard to repeat.

Ill let others risk him in rnd 2/3, where id gladly take nicks... and if cruz falls to 4/5, ill jump on him

You think Victor Cruz will be in the top 24 picks, one of the first 8 wideouts taken? Seriously?He's the WR3 in our PPR league. The guy who was WR1 in 2011 2010 was going 4th/5th round this year, generally around 18-20. I happen to think Cruz will have a better follow up statement than Brandon Lloyd - and for sure, his situation is more stable.

[*]Johnson

[*]Johnson

[*]Wallace

[*]Fitz

[*]VJax

[*]Jordy

[*]Jennings

[*]Nicks

[*]Dez

[*]NOT MENTIONED: Welker, Smith, Marshall, Colston, Wayne, Austin, Bowe

There will probably be 16-18 WRs taken in the first four rounds. I could see calling Cruz a 3rd/4th rounder, and I do think that is good value there. But no way in hell is he getting taken in the 2nd.

andre johnson - best season 1569/9 - always taken mid/late first roundvictor cruz - 1358/8, with 1 game left to play - why is it hard to believe he'd be taken as one of the first 24-36 players off the board?

 

[BobbyLayne]

Because historically the wisdom of crowds lags a breakout season by a good season or two when it's a late round or undrafted played. See it nearly every year - you've never noticed that trend??

 

[rizzler]

Because historically the wisdom of crowds lags a breakout season by a good season or two when it's a late round or undrafted played. See it nearly every year - you've never noticed that trend??

arian foster was the last undrafted to 'breakout', just last season... and he was a consensus no1 this year. Cruz will, for all intents and purposes be a top 36 pick, in many drafts.I for one, wont be one of the guys doing that, though

 

[BobbyLayne]

Because historically the wisdom of crowds lags a breakout season by a good season or two when it's a late round or undrafted played. See it nearly every year - you've never noticed that trend??

arian foster was the last undrafted to 'breakout', just last season... and he was a consensus no1 this year. Cruz will, for all intents and purposes be a top 36 pick, in many drafts.I for one, wont be one of the guys doing that, though

Let me get this straight...You think Arian Foster outscoring every other running back in the league by SIX FF POINTS A GAME in 2010 is applicable here?ETA: Sorry, Shady was 'only' 85 points back, 5.3 PPG. Next tier was 95 plus points back; ADP was 117 points (7.3 ppg) behind. Yeah, dude dominated at a Victor Cruz level, eh?

 

[rizzler]

Because historically the wisdom of crowds lags a breakout season by a good season or two when it's a late round or undrafted played. See it nearly every year - you've never noticed that trend??

arian foster was the last undrafted to 'breakout', just last season... and he was a consensus no1 this year. Cruz will, for all intents and purposes be a top 36 pick, in many drafts.I for one, wont be one of the guys doing that, though

Let me get this straight...You think Arian Foster outscoring every other running back in the league by SIX FF POINTS A GAME in 2010 is applicable here?ETA: Sorry, Shady was 'only' 85 points back, 5.3 PPG. Next tier was 95 plus points back; ADP was 117 points (7.3 ppg) behind. Yeah, dude dominated at a Victor Cruz level, eh?

???I said Cruz is a top 36 pick. Over and over.How does his production and situation not warrant a top 36 pick, for many drafters?I've said over and over, he SHOULD be a rnd 4/5 guy, but his numbers and current upside will likely see him as a top 36 pick.He's OUTPRODUCED white, fitz, vinny j, nicks, marshall, jennings, bryant etc etc...So ya, he's going to be taken high, regardless of it only beinh his 'first' season

 

[floods]

Because historically the wisdom of crowds lags a breakout season by a good season or two when it's a late round or undrafted played. See it nearly every year - you've never noticed that trend??

arian foster was the last undrafted to 'breakout', just last season... and he was a consensus no1 this year. Cruz will, for all intents and purposes be a top 36 pick, in many drafts.I for one, wont be one of the guys doing that, though

Although you might see a Boldin/Fitz 1a/1b-type set of picks with Nicks and Cruz, I see most people still valuing Nicks as an under performing WR1 and Cruz as the WR2. That said, many people who take the "prove it" approach are going to miss the boat.

 

[butcher boy]

Cruz has 2 major question marks that keep him out of my top 5 next year. Will Eli have another career year or wil he trend back to his averages? And will Nicks have a bounceback year and become a stud again? I think the presence of both Nicks and Cruz on the same team hurts both of their stock a bit.

 

[Two Deep]

Tim Tebow: he doesn't win 6 games next year.

 

[Leroy Hoard]

Tim Tebow: he doesn't win 6 games next year.

This one you can bet on in Vegas, at least the teams total wins..

 

[Carolina Hustler]

Victor Cruz - won't happen again.hundreds of those yards and a few of those TD's were so fluky.could easily fall back to 700-800 and 4-5

Mixed into every players stats are some fluky plays.. Cruz's were highlight reel worthy and he's been a constant study this season, that's why his are more scrutinized.."hundreds" is a bit of an exaggeration I think as well...

 

[scrumptrulescent]

Reggie Bush. New coaching staff will undoubtedly not make him the primary ballcarrier. He can't do it.....as evidenced by him not being able to play this week.

 

[Ned]

Cruz has 2 major question marks that keep him out of my top 5 next year. Will Eli have another career year or wil he trend back to his averages? And will Nicks have a bounceback year and become a stud again? I think the presence of both Nicks and Cruz on the same team hurts both of their stock a bit.

I see it the other way. Having both forces defenses to pick their poison. They can't double team both, so who's it gonna be?

 

[Kitrick Taylor]

Cruz has 2 major question marks that keep him out of my top 5 next year. Will Eli have another career year or wil he trend back to his averages? And will Nicks have a bounceback year and become a stud again? I think the presence of both Nicks and Cruz on the same team hurts both of their stock a bit.

I see it the other way. Having both forces defenses to pick their poison. They can't double team both, so who's it gonna be?

Agreed, and Eli may be having a career year in yardage, but his TDs are about the same as the past two years, as is his passer rating. People are going to have to get used to the idea that this guy Eli Manning is gonna give you 4000+ yards and 25+ Tds. My pick for "he ain't doin that next year" is Marshawn Lynch. He's been pedestrian throughout the vast majority of his career to date, then he suddenly "gets it" with half a season to go before his contract expires?

 

[5-ish Finkle]

This is a layup....Gronkowski doesn't get anywhere near the TDs he did this year in '12.

Did you think this through over a cup of Duncan Hills coffee?I feel like Gronk will be nearly as good... Who knows. He's gonna be a risk/reward in the 2nd round, where he'll likely go

"Do You Folks Like Coffee?Real Coffee,From the Hills Of Colombia?Prepare For Ultimate Flavor!You're Gonna Get Some... nowAnd Scream... For Your Cream!!"I did not say Gronkowski wouldn't be "nearly as good." I merely opined it's very unlikely he gets close to "historical TDs for a Tight End" two years in a row.

 

[BigGDan]

I'd rather draft Cruz in round 3-4 than Nicks in round 2. Cruz is the real deal, as is Eli. I've been drafting and touting Eli for the last 3 seasons because you know what his floor is and he's only been getting better every year. Eli is now in his prime and I expect his numbers to be consistent to this season if not get a little better. I would be more than happy with Eli as my QB next year because I can get him in round 6 or later and he'll end up a top 7 at the position.

Here's who I won't be drafting at their presumed ADP (based on this season's stats):

Marshawn Lynch - don't trust him and never have.

Andy Dalton - I was hyping him in the preseason but the sophmore slump is real. I would draft him at the right price but won't overpay

A.J. Green - same as above. I will draft either at the right price but most likely people will overpay

Julio Jones - same as above, sophmore slump...

Reggie Bush - this season was the exception and I'm a big believer in mean regression

Cam Newton - sophmore slump...

 

[E_Smith]

I'd rather draft Cruz in round 3-4 than Nicks in round 2. Cruz is the real deal, as is Eli. I've been drafting and touting Eli for the last 3 seasons because you know what his floor is and he's only been getting better every year. Eli is now in his prime and I expect his numbers to be consistent to this season if not get a little better. I would be more than happy with Eli as my QB next year because I can get him in round 6 or later and he'll end up a top 7 at the position.Here's who I won't be drafting at their presumed ADP (based on this season's stats):Marshawn Lynch - don't trust him and never have.Andy Dalton - I was hyping him in the preseason but the sophmore slump is real. I would draft him at the right price but won't overpayA.J. Green - same as above. I will draft either at the right price but most likely people will overpayJulio Jones - same as above, sophmore slump...Reggie Bush - this season was the exception and I'm a big believer in mean regressionCam Newton - sophmore slump...

Why would you assume that every rookie will have a sophomore slump? I don't think any of these guys has a slump. Dalton and Green should continue to build chemistry, and I just don't see Newton slumping.

 

[Statorama]

Agreed on Tebow. I can't believe his NFL success happened one year, let alone another.

 

[RavenLunatic]

And Welker is the studliest player who annually ends up on this list. I love him and still can't get excited the way I do about an AJ Green or Denarius Moore.

Would it be different if he were 25?

 

[rizzler]

And Welker is the studliest player who annually ends up on this list. I love him and still can't get excited the way I do about an AJ Green or Denarius Moore. Would it be different if he were 25?

consistency isn't exciting.it's the diamond in the rough that makes me salivate

 

[gianmarco]

You won't be able to buy Miles Austin any cheaper than now.

 

[scrumptrulescent]

I'd rather draft Cruz in round 3-4 than Nicks in round 2. Cruz is the real deal, as is Eli. I've been drafting and touting Eli for the last 3 seasons because you know what his floor is and he's only been getting better every year. Eli is now in his prime and I expect his numbers to be consistent to this season if not get a little better. I would be more than happy with Eli as my QB next year because I can get him in round 6 or later and he'll end up a top 7 at the position.Here's who I won't be drafting at their presumed ADP (based on this season's stats):Marshawn Lynch - don't trust him and never have.Andy Dalton - I was hyping him in the preseason but the sophmore slump is real. I would draft him at the right price but won't overpayA.J. Green - same as above. I will draft either at the right price but most likely people will overpayJulio Jones - same as above, sophmore slump...Reggie Bush - this season was the exception and I'm a big believer in mean regressionCam Newton - sophmore slump...

Why would you assume that every rookie will have a sophomore slump? I don't think any of these guys has a slump. Dalton and Green should continue to build chemistry, and I just don't see Newton slumping.

BigGayDan predicts the slumps of 4 young players going into their 2nd NFL year, but BigGayDan would rather draft Victor Cruz in the 3rd round instead of Hakeem Nicks in the 2nd because Cruz is the "real deal". BigGayDan is is funny

 

[Sweet Love]

I'd rather draft Cruz in round 3-4 than Nicks in round 2. Cruz is the real deal, as is Eli. I've been drafting and touting Eli for the last 3 seasons because you know what his floor is and he's only been getting better every year. Eli is now in his prime and I expect his numbers to be consistent to this season if not get a little better. I would be more than happy with Eli as my QB next year because I can get him in round 6 or later and he'll end up a top 7 at the position.Here's who I won't be drafting at their presumed ADP (based on this season's stats):Marshawn Lynch - don't trust him and never have.Andy Dalton - I was hyping him in the preseason but the sophmore slump is real. I would draft him at the right price but won't overpayA.J. Green - same as above. I will draft either at the right price but most likely people will overpayJulio Jones - same as above, sophmore slump...Reggie Bush - this season was the exception and I'm a big believer in mean regressionCam Newton - sophmore slump...

Why would you assume that every rookie will have a sophomore slump? I don't think any of these guys has a slump. Dalton and Green should continue to build chemistry, and I just don't see Newton slumping.

That is silly...each group of exceptional rookies sees their level of drop-off. I am not going to say who will drop off in 2012, but to think each player will automatically improve is just not right. How man thought Mike Williams (TB) would have a down year? It was not just "down', but a true regression. Why was that?

 

[Shutout]

Arian Foster

youre right, his numbers were too low this season

well played sir

 

[Shutout]

I'd rather draft Cruz in round 3-4 than Nicks in round 2. Cruz is the real deal, as is Eli. I've been drafting and touting Eli for the last 3 seasons because you know what his floor is and he's only been getting better every year. Eli is now in his prime and I expect his numbers to be consistent to this season if not get a little better. I would be more than happy with Eli as my QB next year because I can get him in round 6 or later and he'll end up a top 7 at the position.Here's who I won't be drafting at their presumed ADP (based on this season's stats):Marshawn Lynch - don't trust him and never have.Andy Dalton - I was hyping him in the preseason but the sophmore slump is real. I would draft him at the right price but won't overpayA.J. Green - same as above. I will draft either at the right price but most likely people will overpayJulio Jones - same as above, sophmore slump...Reggie Bush - this season was the exception and I'm a big believer in mean regressionCam Newton - sophmore slump...

I have been saying for as many years as I can remember that Eli is SO underrated because he is, like you pointed out, very steady in his floor and he just kept getting numbers that were always better than what people seemed to think. But now after these past two years, I have to reverse my advice. Having watched him his entire career and thinking he was under valued, I now think he has been part of some unlikely to reoccur events the past season and a half and I think he falls next year. So, I'm now thinking he will be over valued going into next season.