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"He ain't doin' that next year..." (1 Viewer)
- Thread starter rizzler
- Start date
massraider
Footballguy
I think the QB position is a bit different than any other for this sort of thing, tho.I mean, what percentage of rookie QBs see their numbers drop the following year? Or young starting QBs? For the most part, any starting QB has his worst, or close to it, numbers of his career their first season. There are exceptions, but they are few and far between.
cubbie5150
Footballguy
FWIW, I tend to agree w/ your point. BUT, after watching Josh Freeman's suckage this year (I know, his 3rd year as a pro, not 2nd year), a sophomore slump from a young player has to be at least considered, IMO. Elite guys get taken early/for a higher bid because they are also dependable. I see owners all over the place saying Cam is a lock to get picked amongst the 1st 18 overall....too high for my tastes, and I'm a owner who has no issue w/ going QB in the one of the 1st 2 Rds
Carolina Hustler
Footballguy
Which brings up the ever popular "3rd year slump", not to be confused with the "4th year slump".. and so on...
packersfan
Footballguy
He's had back-to-back disappointing seasons due to Kitna (last season) and injuries (this season) but I still believe he's a stud talent. If he drops at all, I'm pouncing.
Bruce Leroy
Footballguy
Adrian Peterson
I agree Cruz should not be taken in the 2nd round but some of the guys you have way ahead of him are questionable. Cruz is essentially a rookie and should put up over 80 Reception, 1400 yds and 8 plus tds in 14 games (he only had 2 receptions for 17 yds in his first 2 games this year)You think Victor Cruz will be in the top 24 picks, one of the first 8 wideouts taken? Seriously?He's the WR3 in our PPR league. The guy who was WR1 in 2011 2010 was going 4th/5th round this year, generally around 18-20. I happen to think Cruz will have a better follow up statement than Brandon Lloyd - and for sure, his situation is more stable.Is he a value pick? odds are he goes in the 2/3 round.... 4th seems unlikely to me. Nicks is way too good to be "shut out" again, he just had some untimely drops... Cruz is good. very good. But this season will be hard to repeat.'shadyridr said:
Folks discount him because he wasn't drafted. I bet a lot of those people didn't see him play much. Playmaker, big time.
Ill let others risk him in rnd 2/3, where id gladly take nicks... and if cruz falls to 4/5, ill jump on him
[*]Johnson
[*]Johnson
[*]Wallace - 3 years in the league and has never done more than Cruz has (comparable but not more)
[*]Fitz
[*]VJax - been in the league 7 years and has never had a year like Cruz
[*]Jordy - C'mon ... Cruz had more yds and tds (his 1st season) than Nelson's first 3 seasons combined (Nelson likely will never repeat 12 tds).
[*]Jennings
[*]Nicks
[*]Dez - You would think ... but look at the stats
[*]NOT MENTIONED: Welker, Smith, Marshall, Colston, Wayne, Austin, Bowe
There will probably be 16-18 WRs taken in the first four rounds. I could see calling Cruz a 3rd/4th rounder, and I do think that is good value there. But no way in hell is he getting taken in the 2nd.
He could be considered any time after
Johnson
Johnson
Fitz
And bye the way ... Although I do not think Cruz is the best receiver on your list above ... None of them (including Johnson, Johnson and Fitz) have had a better 1st season than Cruz.
Ned
Footballguy
another flukey play from Cruz
rizzler
Footballguy
Cruz is a monster... No doubt.
I still think \Id rather take Nicks next season, but may regret that decision in the end.
Theyll both get theirs, but Cruz is always going to be likely to put up that 60+yd score a la Wallace
Though, in the event that Manning does go down, Nicks would decrease in value the least IMO
I still think \Id rather take Nicks next season, but may regret that decision in the end.
Theyll both get theirs, but Cruz is always going to be likely to put up that 60+yd score a la Wallace
Though, in the event that Manning does go down, Nicks would decrease in value the least IMO
Cruz has been doing what you guys call flukey plays for a while in preseason, he just got to do it during the regular season this year. Caught watching his child-like recess YAC, I think we miss his great concentration to pluck some passes out of the air. I don't see why it stops if we have so many games to go on. I suppose an argument can be made for Mario's presence, but I'm not sure if the Gmen go with Mario or draft a 3rd WR.
Eli has always been the most underrated passer. No QB has accomplished as many wins or thrown as many yards and been kicked around as much as Eli. It's ironic as "he's not Peyton" was an almost insult early on. Interesting that his rookie year he played a bunch of games and Peyton threw more TDs in a game than Eli had at that point in the season. Anyhow, growing up as "not Peyton" has probably given him the thick skin necessary to do his job so well.
Eli has always been the most underrated passer. No QB has accomplished as many wins or thrown as many yards and been kicked around as much as Eli. It's ironic as "he's not Peyton" was an almost insult early on. Interesting that his rookie year he played a bunch of games and Peyton threw more TDs in a game than Eli had at that point in the season. Anyhow, growing up as "not Peyton" has probably given him the thick skin necessary to do his job so well.
I agree that Cruz is the real deal. The most telling thing for me is that for the vast majority of all of the crucial, must have plays, Eli looks to Cruz and just about forces the ball his way above all other options. He does this despite having Hakeem Nicks on the team. You can say a lot of his plays were fluky if you want (I would agree that a handful of the long touchdowns have been, most notably the deflected, bouncing ball touchdown against the Seahawks early in the season), but the fact of the matter is you simply don't fluke into 1500+ yards. You also don't fluke into becoming the most trusted clutch time receiver on your team from a Superbowl winning quarterback. He runs very good routes which makes him very difficult to cover, is capable of playing any receiver position including the slot, which makes it very difficult to focus a defense on him (even though the Cowboys tried various double teaming tactics last night to no avail), and he has very good ability after the catch. All of that spells a reliable player. I saw a lot of this same stuff from Miles Austin during his breakout season and see no reason Cruz can't follow the same path.I think the fact that so many people will feel Cruz is overrated and is going to have a "regression to the mean" is going to cause him to end up very underrated next year. Since forcing his way into the lineup starting with his week 3 breakout, he has averaged 108.5 yards per game. This isn't a breakout that relied on an extremely unsustainable level of touchdowns (like Dwayne Bowe last year). Additionally, this isn't a player who has no ability to find the end zone, as he has averaged 0.64 touchdowns per game over the same 14 game span.
ThePittbully
Footballguy
Victor Cruz is one of those guys who's going to be a value pick next year because so many people discount this season as a fluke. He may take a dip in production, but only because his production was so high this year. He's the real deal, watch the tape this guy can flat out play. He may not hit 1500 yards again next season but no way does he drop below 1000 yards barring an injury
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eakfootball
Footballguy
I think Mario Manningham will be a great value pick next year. People will be able to draft him in the 10th or later, and he could easily bounce back with a 800-7 season.
I think using Miles Austin as your example actually hurts your arguement. After his breakout year, he hasn't produced anywhere close to that level. He's been injury prone, something that he was before his breakout. But so was Victor Cruz who tore his hammy last year.
sihaokills
Footballguy
Completely wrong. Miles Austin has not performed when he has either A.) Been hurt (a valid issue because he does have somewhat of an injury history) or B.)has had a backup quarterback throwing him the ball (Kitna most of last season). When Austin has been healthy and Romo has played, he has been among the best in the league in per game averages.Cruz doesn't have injury histories as of yet, so we can cross that potential problem off (although nobody is immune to injury and I think it is a very overrated part of predicting fantasy football success anyway). As for the quarterbacks...well I think any receiver outside of Calvin, Fitz, and possibly Andre Johnson are almost directly tied to their quarterback. If Eli were to get hurt, I would expect a fairly decent drop in Cruz' stats. However, if any receiver outside of Calvin, Fitz, and possibly Andre were forced to play with their backup quarterback, I would expect them to have a fairly decent drop in stats.
The truth is that people are almost always too slow to come around on the out of nowhere players. It usually ends up leaving them as extreme value picks the 1st year following their breakout. This was the case with Austin, who despite the mundane 2010 season was a great value pick and selecting him as he slid was the right process (as evidenced by his lights out start to the season with Romo behind center. A fluky quarterback injury doesn't cause it to become bad process). Any leagues that didn't have Arian Foster among their first 5 picks, and there were plenty, caused him to be a huge value pick this year. The same will be true of Cruz- plenty enough people will him as a fluke and take the likes of Welker, Wallace, Nicks, White, etc... too early and let him slip when he is just as likely to outproduce any of those bigger names at a value of a price.
I guess my point is that he doesn't need to replicate this season to become a great value pick next year. He just needs to be close enough to the Welker, Wallace, Nicks, White, etc... group that the round or 2 cheaper price he will likely carry due to "regression to the mean", not having the track record, his stats being too fluky, or whatever other reason you want to assign makes him more than worth it. I personally think it is entirely likely he at least comes close to that groups production.
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ConfusedRealist
Footballguy
All I saw was Manny Ramirez playing football instead of baseball. Lots of weird tipped balls that sometimes ended up in his hands and sometimes were interceptions. I also saw him lose a game for the Giants singlehandedly, except the refs decided they'd play kiddy rules for that down and pretend like Cruz didn't drop the ball for no reason. Total fluke season in my opinion.
Michael Clayton II
that doesn't seem like a great value pick when you add those stats in. Teams like San Fran and the Rams need to stop hearing how their WRs will be real good someday and sign a guy like Mario. (trade? I don't know his deal)I think he's limited on the Gmen with Cruz's emergence. Nicks has been a battler with injuries this year, he's even better than this. Mario could definitely get a K on some other team and be a good WR. If and when that happens, we'll have to readjust our rankings of him. Yeah...sorry long winded
Honest question: Did you actually watch Giants games or are you relying on highlights? I ask because highlights will frequently leave you with a very incomplete picture and will end up resulting in people throwing around unfounded hyperbole. Watching the games reveals the following:- He is among the best route runners in the entire league. He is CONSTANTLY open and its not because teams continue to ignore him. As a matter of fact, in the recent weeks, he has gotten more attention from defenses than even Nicks. The reason he is so open is because he sells his routes incredibly well, is very quick out of breaks, fights off press coverage at the line of scrimmage, and sets defensive backs up beautifully. He doesn't have the physical stats of Nicks, therefor he is required to get himself open more and he does it very, very well.- He is sick after the catch. Has good speed, can juke, and generally is just able to see the field and find space unlike a lot of typical slot receivers. Some of the long touchdowns are fluky, but some of them are just flat ### great plays by Cruz.- He has average hands and will drop passes. This is an absolute knock against him and something he needs to improve, but his hands aren't so horrible that it will ever be something that holds him back long term.- He is clutch and is the primary receiver that Eli looks too anytime the Giants have a must have play. Eli will frequently ignore Nicks, Bradshaw, Manningham, and everyone else and will throw it to Cruz, even when covered, to let him make the play for the Giants. This was easily evidenced last week against Dallas (the jump ball when there was a defensive back all over Cruz), but also can be evidenced by the "throw it up" pass against the Jets. Good quarterbacks don't make a habit of trusting fluky receivers in the most important moments of games. To me, this is the single best indicator of receiver talent level of them all- if a quarterback relies on a player to make the clutch plays, it is a good bet that said player is legit.He certainly has some knocks (hands need to get better, somewhat of a fumbling problem), but I hate to break it to you- no receiver in the NFL is ever going to fluke into 1500+ yards. Yards are a significantly better indicator of overall talent, in my opinion, as they are consistent from season to season and aren't as subject to fluky streaks as touchdowns are. Even if you take away a few of the more unexpected long plays (there were 1 or two that included bounced balls, but that's it. The rest of these "fluke plays" were a result of Cruz catching it and either juking a defender or else running to daylight and nobody being able to catch him) he would still have had an awesome season and would have remained among the league leaders.All I saw was Manny Ramirez playing football instead of baseball. Lots of weird tipped balls that sometimes ended up in his hands and sometimes were interceptions. I also saw him lose a game for the Giants singlehandedly, except the refs decided they'd play kiddy rules for that down and pretend like Cruz didn't drop the ball for no reason. Total fluke season in my opinion.
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Herm23,
I think teams will be hard pressed to decide like former duo WRs. Somehow Nicks is the rare NY player that is somehow underrated. He's pretty awesome when he's healthy and he hasn't been for much(if not all) of 2011. I know for FF people want Mario or some 3rd WR in there but, for me, Giant football is about them adding a TE to destroy teams up the middle. Ya know a "good luck" to the defense in trying to stop em' all yet with a power game that goes from the RB to the TE to these dynamic WRs that break team's backs.
Coughlin teams elsewhere and NY, Parcells Gmen, Fassel's, I don't see great 3rd WR like some want for Mario. My thoughts go to TE as the missing piece here.
I think teams will be hard pressed to decide like former duo WRs. Somehow Nicks is the rare NY player that is somehow underrated. He's pretty awesome when he's healthy and he hasn't been for much(if not all) of 2011. I know for FF people want Mario or some 3rd WR in there but, for me, Giant football is about them adding a TE to destroy teams up the middle. Ya know a "good luck" to the defense in trying to stop em' all yet with a power game that goes from the RB to the TE to these dynamic WRs that break team's backs.
Coughlin teams elsewhere and NY, Parcells Gmen, Fassel's, I don't see great 3rd WR like some want for Mario. My thoughts go to TE as the missing piece here.
shadyridr
Footballguy
'ConfusedRealist said:All I saw was Manny Ramirez playing football instead of baseball. Lots of weird tipped balls that sometimes ended up in his hands and sometimes were interceptions. I also saw him lose a game for the Giants singlehandedly, except the refs decided they'd play kiddy rules for that down and pretend like Cruz didn't drop the ball for no reason. Total fluke season in my opinion.
Sabertooth
Footballguy
I do the opposite of concur. He's already peaked. He's a James Jones level bit player at best. He's a self concussing stumblebum at worst.'eakfootball said:
Kenny Powers
Footballguy
Freeman had a terrible year
Kenny Powers
Footballguy
This is where I stand on Cruz. Because of name recognition and year in, year out production, the first WRs taken will likely be (in no specific order) Mega, Fitz, Welker, Andre, Roddy, SSmith, Jennings, Nicks, Wallace, VJax, Marshall, Colston with Julio, AJ Green, and Dez maybe being taken before a few of the latter. Now there's already 15 WRs off the board, I dont wouldnt argue with someone taking any of these guys over Cruz, but I dont see Cruz getting consistently drafted ahead of any of them either.With that in mind, my expectation is that Cruz's ADP will be in round 5 and he'll be getting picked in a WR tier with guys like Jordy, Harvin, DJax, Bowe, Lloyd, Wayne. Id personally rather have Cruz than any of these guys, but I have a feeling in many leagues Cruz goes after a few of them. Seems like a huge value to me.'Herm23 said:
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Kenny Powers
Footballguy
Going into next year, people will forget about Jeremy Maclin's rough offseason in 2011 in addition to missing 1/4 of this season and he'll be a great value since he'll likely be getting drafted as a mid WR3 in the 7th round or so.
Depending on how his rehab goes and how healthy he is as the season nears, Britt could be a nice value as well.
Depending on how his rehab goes and how healthy he is as the season nears, Britt could be a nice value as well.
shadyridr
Footballguy
Id be stunned if Cruz's ADP is the 5th round. Talk about a ####in steal. My guess is ADP in the 3rd right around guys like Jordy, Miles, & Marshall. Id take him over any of those guys without hesitation. Id also take him over Wallace, VJax, Smith, Julio,Dez, Harvin, Bowe, Lloyd, Wayne, Colston and Nicks. Probably would only rank Megatron, Fitz, Andre, Welker, Roddy, & Jennings over him.
So Id have him ranked #7
So Id have him ranked #7
Kenny Powers
Footballguy
You might have him WR7, but no way he's a consensus top 12 FF WR with all the names you and I mentioned. In standard 12 team drafts, I dont see how his ADP will be 3rd round (or top 36 picks). Just guessing, position by position first 3 rounds next year is probably ~18RBs, 5QBs, 11-12WRs, 2TEs. I have a feeling the people high on Cruz repeating will start grabbing him mid-4th and his general ADP will be 5th round (48th-60th overall)
Mr. Mojo
Footballguy
I like the "Stumblebum" tag. I thought he'd be great value this year and he rarely made any kind of tough catch.As far as Cruz, I think he's had too many big games on nationwide TV to get cheap next year. I think he'll be good but am always leery about big play WRs like him and DeSean Jackson. He won't be a bum, but I can see stats closer to 1,200 yards and 6-7 TDs.
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Too bad we can not comp Williams another 500 yards and 5 TDs for the fact his QB did meet expectations. I don't care if a guy is shot in the leg during a preseason game. There is always a drop. While Kenny powers may not see Newton slumping, I also don't see him rushing for 16TDs again (or even 10...and I don't think anyone does). Would not surprise me at all if Newton, Dalton and Green regress (fantasy-wise) in 2012.
He's not a big play wide receiver in the mold of a DeSean Jackson though. He has had an abundance of long touchdowns that make it seem so, but unlike DeSean, Cruz regularly runs the entire route tree and is involved on passing plays that are short, middle, and long. It just so happens that he is capable of taking those short and middle passes to the house, thus making him seem more like a 1 trick pony due to the lengthy touchdowns.Before the love gets out of hand, I'm not suggesting that Cruz is the 2nd coming or that he's going to put up 1,500 yards and 12 touchdowns next year. All I'm saying is that I have seen his name used repeatedly as a prime target as a guy who will be overvalued next year and I think that is a mistake. A player like Jordy Nelson (or maybe even Marshawn Lynch) strikes me as a prime candidate to regress- his stats are well above his actual talent level when I watch him play and he would need the situation to remain exactly the same and to catch a lot of luck to replicate his season. He's a good player who has put up exceptional stats for a variety of reasons and not a large enough portion of that reason is his actual talent lecel. I felt the same about Blount last year as well as Dwayne Bowe- while good players, I never got the feeling that they were safe bets to come close to repeating the production they provided in 2010. Cruz, on the other hand, has the talent to match his gaudy production and reminds me more of the Arian Foster situation. He is helped by a pretty nice situation to help ensure he can produce, but also definitely belongs, is in no way fluking into any of his production, and feels like a safe bet to be in the ballpark of replicating his performance in 2012.Or at least that's how my mind sees it when I watch him play.
Kitrick Taylor
Footballguy
Mike Williams caught 65 passes in 2011. That's nearly double the catches Clayton had in any of his 7 seasons following his rookie year. Williams also caught 3 TDs. That's the total number of TDs Clayton had in those subsequent 7 years.
Williams had a down year no doubt, and he, Blount and Freeman need to learn how to be pros. But to call him Micheal Clayton II is still just flat out wrong.
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