Colin Dowling
Footballguy
Same deal as last time. Its been a few weeks and so (a) I've seen more college ball (b) I've seem more NFL and individual team needs and © wins and losses are helping establish the draft order a little more clearly.
Please pick this apart as much as you like, and I'll try to respond with as much info as possible for any questions that come up regarding any prospects. The draft order is hardly worth debating as its based on CURRENT NFL standings with me being the sole decision-maker when teams have the same records.
Most picks are based on need of the NFL team listed. Some players will obviously play themselves up/down the draft boards and end up as "best player available" going to a team that doesn't seem to need them. However, for now, we're trying to fill a need with every team. Enjoy...
HERD's NFL MOCK DRAFT - Round 1 - Version 2.0
***I have taken the liberty of making a trade. I think the Panthers, currently slotted at #4, have too many needs to stay that high and overpay for an O-lineman. Similarly, at this juncture, the Chargers two #1 picks don't look like they are going to be very high, meaning the odds of them getting a top-notch WR or Olineman are slim-to-none. As such, I've traded the Chargers two #1s for the Panthers #1 and some later picks. Why? Because it makes a lot of sense to me.
1. Dolphins - Aaron Rogers - QB - Cal - Rogers is going 1st overall at this point. I think the "kicker" was in Cal's showdown with USC, where despite losing, Rogers put on a show against a strong defense and a big audience watching how he handled the pressure. He has fantastic size, a strong arm, and he completes a high percentage of his passes. In other words, he's what the Dolphins THOUGHT they were getting in AJ Feeley, except Rogers is actually as good as advertised.
2. Bears - Alex Barron - OT - FSU - They need to protect Grossman and open some holes for TJones. With Eric Winston's injury, Barron becomes the clear-cut top-rated Olineman in this draft. The Bears could get tempted by Mike Williams, but I think that they'll take the need position, which is O-line. If they take Williams, expect the Chargers (#4) to jump on Barron.
3. Cowboys (via Bills) - Rodrique Wright - DT - UTexas - The Cowboys are playing terribly this year, but at least they can be happy that the Bills are playing even worse. While Rolle would be a consideration here, I think Parcells will go with the top-rated D-tackle in the draft to put next to Glover and get his corner later. Wright gives Parcells the kind of player he most likes on D - big, fast, and coachable.
4. Chargers (Via Panthers) - Mike Williams - WR - F/A - The Chargers want Williams, and I think they'll move up to get him. If they can re-sign McCardell, then Keenan, Williams, Gates, Tomlinson, and Caldwell/Parker are going to give Drew Brees Philip Rivers some nice targets. Do I need to tell you anything else about Mike Williams that we haven't covered before? I had thought Braylon Edwards or Mark Clayton might challenge Williams for the WR1 spot in this draft, but Edwards drops too many balls and Clayton doesn't have Mike's size.
5. 49ers - Antrell Rolle - CB - Miami - As I said last time, Rolle is a fantastic corner who can shut down half of the field. Rattay is playing well enough to hold off drafting a QB and while this team has plenty of problems on the O side of things, Rolle is simply too good to pass up. He's not Champ Bailey good, but he's good enough to be a top-10 corner in by his 3rd season.
6. Raiders - Cedric Benson- RB - UTexas - Norv will take the best back available, and its Benson. And yes, I STILL think Benson is going to win the Heisman. He's now producing more all-purpose yards each game then Reggie Bush, and Cedric doesn't return kicks. Its also a big plus for Norv Turner and company that Benson is a big, bruising runner who's very productive between the tackles. Expect Benson to be the top Rookie selected in dynasty drafts across the land this spring/summer. I know some of you don't like him, but Benson is about as NFL-Ready as any skill-player in this draft.
7. Buccaneers - Mark Clayton - WR - Oklahoma - I know the need is O-line or even some Defense, but Jamal Brown isn't worth the #7 pick and unless Charles Lee establishes himself as an everydown WR (I'm not seeing it), then I expect there to be a pair of Clayton's in Tampa next year. In the last 12 months, Gruden has lost Keyshaun, McCardell, Juerevicius (sp?), and Galloway for various reasons. Time to bring in some quality youth for the dink-n-dunk-n-chunk offense.
8. Bengals - Antajj Hawthore- DT - Wisconsin - Hawthorne has helped himself immensly this season. He's a quality DT who does most things well. He's also a leader and is equally adept at stopping the run as he is at jamming the pocket and getting after the QB. The Bengals need someone who can plug up the middle in the worst way. Hawthorne makes perfect sense here. If not him, maybe Corey Webster.
9. Titans - Derrick Johnson - LB UTexas - The Titans offense is having trouble moving the ball consistantly, but they also can't stop anyone with any consistancy. The team might go with Clayton if he's available, but Johnson could line up next to Keith Bulluck and immediately improve a defense that can't seem to find its direction. He's fast and smart and while he might not be as aggressive as Jon Vilma, he's easily the best LB in this draft.
10. Redskins - Marcus Spears - DE - LSU - Joe Gibbs may love a prolific offense, but he also knows that winning in the trenches wins football games. Spears is a quality Defensive End that can rotate in for the Redskins and offer some quality size and speed for the aggressive Washington Defense.
11. Cardinals - Carnell Williams - RB - Auburn - I think Denny's going to let McCown keep the job at QB. Williams is not exceptional in the speed department, but he has the best vision of any RB in the draft and he's quick enough to get to (and through) the holes when they appear. I think that Shipp will get some carries, but Cadillac is going to be the feature piece in this offense. If, by chance, Hawthorne or Wright is avialable, they would be a consideration.
12. Cowboys - Corey Webster - CB - LSU - The Cowboys need another corner like I need air to breath. The defense has already gotten stronger up front with the addition of Wright, and now they get better in the secondary with another quality corner. Having 2 better then average CBs will allow the Cowboys defense to play more zone and offer more varied looks to the pass-heavy NFC East.
13. Chiefs - Ahmad Brooks - OLB - Virginia - The Chiefs defense continues to suck eggs. Brooks can help that the moment he hits the field. Brooks is a solid LB who makes plays at opportune times; something thats been in short supply at Arrowhead.
14. Browns - Jamal Brown - OT - Oklahoma - The Browns are in dire need of O-line help and luckily, they are playing just well enough that an early-teens pick of Brown will be a solid selection (as opposed to reaching for him in the top-10). If Butch Davis keeps his job, look for the offense to actually improve for '05 as (a) the Oline will be better with the addition of Brown (b) Garcia will have a year in the system © Winslow will be back and (d) Antonio Bryant will have 3/4 of a year to learn the Offense.
15. Saints - Matt Leinart - QB - USC - Despite the fact that I like Aaron Brooks and I think he's a top-8 QB in the league, I think that an impending coaching change in conjunction with the Offense's inconsistancies is going to mean Brooks's tenure in NO is not going to last much longer. Many people (myself included) think much of Leinart's success should be attributed to the system he's in, but irregardless of that, he has good size, a strong arm, and leadership qualities necessary in a 1st round QB. I think the "new" Saints will be happy to have him on board.
16. Texans - Mathias Kiwanuka - DE - Boston College - This pick will allow the Texans to do some interesting things with Babin and Robaire Smith (who will likely move to NT at times). Kiwanuka is big and fast and it wouldn't surprise me to see him climb a bit higher and get picked ahead of Spears.
17. Packers - Kyle Orton - QB - Purdue - The Packers need D help and Harris or Jackson would make plenty of sense. However, I'm not buying the "Brees to the Packers" talk just yet, and despite a couple poor outings, Kyle Orton is still an intriguing, and impressive, prospect. I think he's the perfect option to learn behind Farve for 1 or 2 years before taking over. He's got a strong arm, good size, and he understands a complex offense and has the ability to be coached. Orton reminds me of Carson Palmer (who was drafted too high) and should succeed in Green Bay given the opportunity.
18. Seahawks - Orien Harris - DT - UMiami - They have some depth at DT anyway, but the truth is, the D STILL needs playmakers. Harris is fine player and causes all kinds of havoc in the middle. He has a unique talent to get in the backfield, and the Seahawks will benefit greatly from having him around.
19. Panthers (via Chargers) - Andrew Whitworth - OT - LSU - I have them trading down because they are smart enough to realize that if they can't get Alex Barron, they need to get more value at O-line then reaching for Brown. Whitworth is a distant 3rd rated tackle in this draft. However, he has good technique and solid size and should help pretty quickly on a weakened Carolina line.
20. Lions - Erasmus James - DE - Wisconsin - James is a fantastic pass-rusher, which is a great need for a greatly improved Detroit team. James may have helped himself more than anyone else (except for teammate Hawthorne) in this draft and he absolutely should go in the top-20 barring incident. However, don't discount him slipping as fast as he climbed because he's had injury trouble in the past.
21. Ravens - Braylon Edwards - WR - Michigan - Edwards has played well this year, but not to the level that gets WRs in to the top-10. If he's there when the Ravens pick, however, they'd likely select him as they continue to try and solve their problems at WR.
22. Panthers (via Chargers via Giants) - Thomas Davis - S - UGA - The gamble works as the Panthers parlay the #4 pick in to a solid O-lineman and a talented defender in the secondary. Davis is the best safety in this draft and while he's not Sean Taylor or Roy Williams, he's every bit as good as Sean Jones and will likely grade out similarly.
23. Rams - David Pollack - DE - UGA- With Leonard Little likely playing in the Missouri Penal League for a while, Pollack can come in and start right away. Pollack is a bit of a mystery because despite the fact that he's consistant and a good leader, he's simply not "amazing" often enough to get all that excited about. THere are a few DEs who will go ahead of him and whenever that happens at any position, there's a big risk of slipping a round or more (Randy Starks, 2004) because the need has been filled by the desperate teams. At this point, I see Pollack still being a first-rounder, but he is a candidate to slip at a moment's notice if Spears/James/Kiku fill the first round need. HE could also move up with an injury to James.
24. Colts - Lance Mitchell - ILB - Oklahoma - The Colts need help at ILB, and Mitchell is a fantastic fit. He's a solid ILB and defends the pass well enough to be an assett to Dungy's system.
25. Falcons - Marcus McNeil - OT - Auburn - The Falcons defense was exposed last weekend, but they still need to get younger on the O-line. McNeil is a big - VERY BIG - guy and he's earned his stripes opening up holes for Cadillac and Brown at Auburn. I expect him to be the 4th tackle off the board but wouldn't be shocked if he was the 3rd (or even 2nd) one selected when the draft comes around.
26. Jets - Marlin Jackson - CB - Michigan - They still need a corner and thankfully, Jackson's draft status has taken a backseat to Webster and Rolle. Lucky for the Jets, Jackson may be available well in to the 20's, which would offer immediate help at a position of need for NEw York.
27. Broncos - Shaun Cody - DE - USC - The Broncos could go any number of ways here, but a guy like Cody would be a logical choice. Truthfully, he gets pushed around a little too much for my liking, but he's about 10 pounds away from being a defensive tackle and such versatility could offer some benefit for the improving Broncos defense.
28. Jaguars - Justin Miller - CB - Clemson - The Jaguars are winning with Defense and I expect that to continue. THe D-line is stout (particularly inside) and the LBs are playing well. Getting a quality corner like Miller would add depth to an already better-than-average defensive unit.
29. Vikings - Elton Brown - OG - Virginia - I was all excited about letting you know that Brown has moved past David Baas as the top-rated guard in the draft, but truthfully, it won't be that much of a shock if you've seen him play. Brown has great size for a guard and his run-blocking is probably the most improved "technique" piece of the entire 1st round. Guards don't usually go in round 1, but this makes plenty of sense for the Vikings. What's more, with a little work, he could be converted to tackle.
30. Steelers - Heath Miller - TE - Virginia - This is about the most obvious pick in round 1 and most MOcks have Miller going to the Steelers if he slips past the Broncos and the Steelers select in the bottom 3rd of the draft. The Steelers haven't had a decent TE in a while and unless they select Bing instead, I don't see a defensive player out there that would steer them away from Miller. Miller is not Shockey/Winslow caliber, but he's "Ben Watson" good, which should earn him a 1st round spot with a team needing a solid Tight End.
31. Eagles - Ronnie Brown - RB - Auburn - Ronnie sneaks in to the 1st round and immediately Eagles fans rejoice. Brown is stronger then his teammate (Williams) and I actually think he's PROBABLY going to be the better NFL'er of the two. His "slip" here is Philly's gain.
32. Patriots - Darnell Bing - S - USC - THe Pats secondary is getting a little older (as are the LBs) and Bing makes sense. He's extremelly athletic and if he comes out, I'm sure Bilichek would love to have a such a capable player with good technique and physical skills with whom to work.
HERD
Please pick this apart as much as you like, and I'll try to respond with as much info as possible for any questions that come up regarding any prospects. The draft order is hardly worth debating as its based on CURRENT NFL standings with me being the sole decision-maker when teams have the same records.
Most picks are based on need of the NFL team listed. Some players will obviously play themselves up/down the draft boards and end up as "best player available" going to a team that doesn't seem to need them. However, for now, we're trying to fill a need with every team. Enjoy...
HERD's NFL MOCK DRAFT - Round 1 - Version 2.0
***I have taken the liberty of making a trade. I think the Panthers, currently slotted at #4, have too many needs to stay that high and overpay for an O-lineman. Similarly, at this juncture, the Chargers two #1 picks don't look like they are going to be very high, meaning the odds of them getting a top-notch WR or Olineman are slim-to-none. As such, I've traded the Chargers two #1s for the Panthers #1 and some later picks. Why? Because it makes a lot of sense to me.
1. Dolphins - Aaron Rogers - QB - Cal - Rogers is going 1st overall at this point. I think the "kicker" was in Cal's showdown with USC, where despite losing, Rogers put on a show against a strong defense and a big audience watching how he handled the pressure. He has fantastic size, a strong arm, and he completes a high percentage of his passes. In other words, he's what the Dolphins THOUGHT they were getting in AJ Feeley, except Rogers is actually as good as advertised.
2. Bears - Alex Barron - OT - FSU - They need to protect Grossman and open some holes for TJones. With Eric Winston's injury, Barron becomes the clear-cut top-rated Olineman in this draft. The Bears could get tempted by Mike Williams, but I think that they'll take the need position, which is O-line. If they take Williams, expect the Chargers (#4) to jump on Barron.
3. Cowboys (via Bills) - Rodrique Wright - DT - UTexas - The Cowboys are playing terribly this year, but at least they can be happy that the Bills are playing even worse. While Rolle would be a consideration here, I think Parcells will go with the top-rated D-tackle in the draft to put next to Glover and get his corner later. Wright gives Parcells the kind of player he most likes on D - big, fast, and coachable.
4. Chargers (Via Panthers) - Mike Williams - WR - F/A - The Chargers want Williams, and I think they'll move up to get him. If they can re-sign McCardell, then Keenan, Williams, Gates, Tomlinson, and Caldwell/Parker are going to give Drew Brees Philip Rivers some nice targets. Do I need to tell you anything else about Mike Williams that we haven't covered before? I had thought Braylon Edwards or Mark Clayton might challenge Williams for the WR1 spot in this draft, but Edwards drops too many balls and Clayton doesn't have Mike's size.
5. 49ers - Antrell Rolle - CB - Miami - As I said last time, Rolle is a fantastic corner who can shut down half of the field. Rattay is playing well enough to hold off drafting a QB and while this team has plenty of problems on the O side of things, Rolle is simply too good to pass up. He's not Champ Bailey good, but he's good enough to be a top-10 corner in by his 3rd season.
6. Raiders - Cedric Benson- RB - UTexas - Norv will take the best back available, and its Benson. And yes, I STILL think Benson is going to win the Heisman. He's now producing more all-purpose yards each game then Reggie Bush, and Cedric doesn't return kicks. Its also a big plus for Norv Turner and company that Benson is a big, bruising runner who's very productive between the tackles. Expect Benson to be the top Rookie selected in dynasty drafts across the land this spring/summer. I know some of you don't like him, but Benson is about as NFL-Ready as any skill-player in this draft.
7. Buccaneers - Mark Clayton - WR - Oklahoma - I know the need is O-line or even some Defense, but Jamal Brown isn't worth the #7 pick and unless Charles Lee establishes himself as an everydown WR (I'm not seeing it), then I expect there to be a pair of Clayton's in Tampa next year. In the last 12 months, Gruden has lost Keyshaun, McCardell, Juerevicius (sp?), and Galloway for various reasons. Time to bring in some quality youth for the dink-n-dunk-n-chunk offense.
8. Bengals - Antajj Hawthore- DT - Wisconsin - Hawthorne has helped himself immensly this season. He's a quality DT who does most things well. He's also a leader and is equally adept at stopping the run as he is at jamming the pocket and getting after the QB. The Bengals need someone who can plug up the middle in the worst way. Hawthorne makes perfect sense here. If not him, maybe Corey Webster.
9. Titans - Derrick Johnson - LB UTexas - The Titans offense is having trouble moving the ball consistantly, but they also can't stop anyone with any consistancy. The team might go with Clayton if he's available, but Johnson could line up next to Keith Bulluck and immediately improve a defense that can't seem to find its direction. He's fast and smart and while he might not be as aggressive as Jon Vilma, he's easily the best LB in this draft.
10. Redskins - Marcus Spears - DE - LSU - Joe Gibbs may love a prolific offense, but he also knows that winning in the trenches wins football games. Spears is a quality Defensive End that can rotate in for the Redskins and offer some quality size and speed for the aggressive Washington Defense.
11. Cardinals - Carnell Williams - RB - Auburn - I think Denny's going to let McCown keep the job at QB. Williams is not exceptional in the speed department, but he has the best vision of any RB in the draft and he's quick enough to get to (and through) the holes when they appear. I think that Shipp will get some carries, but Cadillac is going to be the feature piece in this offense. If, by chance, Hawthorne or Wright is avialable, they would be a consideration.
12. Cowboys - Corey Webster - CB - LSU - The Cowboys need another corner like I need air to breath. The defense has already gotten stronger up front with the addition of Wright, and now they get better in the secondary with another quality corner. Having 2 better then average CBs will allow the Cowboys defense to play more zone and offer more varied looks to the pass-heavy NFC East.
13. Chiefs - Ahmad Brooks - OLB - Virginia - The Chiefs defense continues to suck eggs. Brooks can help that the moment he hits the field. Brooks is a solid LB who makes plays at opportune times; something thats been in short supply at Arrowhead.
14. Browns - Jamal Brown - OT - Oklahoma - The Browns are in dire need of O-line help and luckily, they are playing just well enough that an early-teens pick of Brown will be a solid selection (as opposed to reaching for him in the top-10). If Butch Davis keeps his job, look for the offense to actually improve for '05 as (a) the Oline will be better with the addition of Brown (b) Garcia will have a year in the system © Winslow will be back and (d) Antonio Bryant will have 3/4 of a year to learn the Offense.
15. Saints - Matt Leinart - QB - USC - Despite the fact that I like Aaron Brooks and I think he's a top-8 QB in the league, I think that an impending coaching change in conjunction with the Offense's inconsistancies is going to mean Brooks's tenure in NO is not going to last much longer. Many people (myself included) think much of Leinart's success should be attributed to the system he's in, but irregardless of that, he has good size, a strong arm, and leadership qualities necessary in a 1st round QB. I think the "new" Saints will be happy to have him on board.
16. Texans - Mathias Kiwanuka - DE - Boston College - This pick will allow the Texans to do some interesting things with Babin and Robaire Smith (who will likely move to NT at times). Kiwanuka is big and fast and it wouldn't surprise me to see him climb a bit higher and get picked ahead of Spears.
17. Packers - Kyle Orton - QB - Purdue - The Packers need D help and Harris or Jackson would make plenty of sense. However, I'm not buying the "Brees to the Packers" talk just yet, and despite a couple poor outings, Kyle Orton is still an intriguing, and impressive, prospect. I think he's the perfect option to learn behind Farve for 1 or 2 years before taking over. He's got a strong arm, good size, and he understands a complex offense and has the ability to be coached. Orton reminds me of Carson Palmer (who was drafted too high) and should succeed in Green Bay given the opportunity.
18. Seahawks - Orien Harris - DT - UMiami - They have some depth at DT anyway, but the truth is, the D STILL needs playmakers. Harris is fine player and causes all kinds of havoc in the middle. He has a unique talent to get in the backfield, and the Seahawks will benefit greatly from having him around.
19. Panthers (via Chargers) - Andrew Whitworth - OT - LSU - I have them trading down because they are smart enough to realize that if they can't get Alex Barron, they need to get more value at O-line then reaching for Brown. Whitworth is a distant 3rd rated tackle in this draft. However, he has good technique and solid size and should help pretty quickly on a weakened Carolina line.
20. Lions - Erasmus James - DE - Wisconsin - James is a fantastic pass-rusher, which is a great need for a greatly improved Detroit team. James may have helped himself more than anyone else (except for teammate Hawthorne) in this draft and he absolutely should go in the top-20 barring incident. However, don't discount him slipping as fast as he climbed because he's had injury trouble in the past.
21. Ravens - Braylon Edwards - WR - Michigan - Edwards has played well this year, but not to the level that gets WRs in to the top-10. If he's there when the Ravens pick, however, they'd likely select him as they continue to try and solve their problems at WR.
22. Panthers (via Chargers via Giants) - Thomas Davis - S - UGA - The gamble works as the Panthers parlay the #4 pick in to a solid O-lineman and a talented defender in the secondary. Davis is the best safety in this draft and while he's not Sean Taylor or Roy Williams, he's every bit as good as Sean Jones and will likely grade out similarly.
23. Rams - David Pollack - DE - UGA- With Leonard Little likely playing in the Missouri Penal League for a while, Pollack can come in and start right away. Pollack is a bit of a mystery because despite the fact that he's consistant and a good leader, he's simply not "amazing" often enough to get all that excited about. THere are a few DEs who will go ahead of him and whenever that happens at any position, there's a big risk of slipping a round or more (Randy Starks, 2004) because the need has been filled by the desperate teams. At this point, I see Pollack still being a first-rounder, but he is a candidate to slip at a moment's notice if Spears/James/Kiku fill the first round need. HE could also move up with an injury to James.
24. Colts - Lance Mitchell - ILB - Oklahoma - The Colts need help at ILB, and Mitchell is a fantastic fit. He's a solid ILB and defends the pass well enough to be an assett to Dungy's system.
25. Falcons - Marcus McNeil - OT - Auburn - The Falcons defense was exposed last weekend, but they still need to get younger on the O-line. McNeil is a big - VERY BIG - guy and he's earned his stripes opening up holes for Cadillac and Brown at Auburn. I expect him to be the 4th tackle off the board but wouldn't be shocked if he was the 3rd (or even 2nd) one selected when the draft comes around.
26. Jets - Marlin Jackson - CB - Michigan - They still need a corner and thankfully, Jackson's draft status has taken a backseat to Webster and Rolle. Lucky for the Jets, Jackson may be available well in to the 20's, which would offer immediate help at a position of need for NEw York.
27. Broncos - Shaun Cody - DE - USC - The Broncos could go any number of ways here, but a guy like Cody would be a logical choice. Truthfully, he gets pushed around a little too much for my liking, but he's about 10 pounds away from being a defensive tackle and such versatility could offer some benefit for the improving Broncos defense.
28. Jaguars - Justin Miller - CB - Clemson - The Jaguars are winning with Defense and I expect that to continue. THe D-line is stout (particularly inside) and the LBs are playing well. Getting a quality corner like Miller would add depth to an already better-than-average defensive unit.
29. Vikings - Elton Brown - OG - Virginia - I was all excited about letting you know that Brown has moved past David Baas as the top-rated guard in the draft, but truthfully, it won't be that much of a shock if you've seen him play. Brown has great size for a guard and his run-blocking is probably the most improved "technique" piece of the entire 1st round. Guards don't usually go in round 1, but this makes plenty of sense for the Vikings. What's more, with a little work, he could be converted to tackle.
30. Steelers - Heath Miller - TE - Virginia - This is about the most obvious pick in round 1 and most MOcks have Miller going to the Steelers if he slips past the Broncos and the Steelers select in the bottom 3rd of the draft. The Steelers haven't had a decent TE in a while and unless they select Bing instead, I don't see a defensive player out there that would steer them away from Miller. Miller is not Shockey/Winslow caliber, but he's "Ben Watson" good, which should earn him a 1st round spot with a team needing a solid Tight End.
31. Eagles - Ronnie Brown - RB - Auburn - Ronnie sneaks in to the 1st round and immediately Eagles fans rejoice. Brown is stronger then his teammate (Williams) and I actually think he's PROBABLY going to be the better NFL'er of the two. His "slip" here is Philly's gain.
32. Patriots - Darnell Bing - S - USC - THe Pats secondary is getting a little older (as are the LBs) and Bing makes sense. He's extremelly athletic and if he comes out, I'm sure Bilichek would love to have a such a capable player with good technique and physical skills with whom to work.
HERD