What's new
Fantasy Football - Footballguys Forums

Welcome to Our Forums. Once you've registered and logged in, you're primed to talk football, among other topics, with the sharpest and most experienced fantasy players on the internet.

HERD's 2005 NFL Mock Draft (1 Viewer)

Colin Dowling

Footballguy
Same deal as last time. Its been a few weeks and so (a) I've seen more college ball (b) I've seem more NFL and individual team needs and © wins and losses are helping establish the draft order a little more clearly.

Please pick this apart as much as you like, and I'll try to respond with as much info as possible for any questions that come up regarding any prospects. The draft order is hardly worth debating as its based on CURRENT NFL standings with me being the sole decision-maker when teams have the same records.

Most picks are based on need of the NFL team listed. Some players will obviously play themselves up/down the draft boards and end up as "best player available" going to a team that doesn't seem to need them. However, for now, we're trying to fill a need with every team. Enjoy...

HERD's NFL MOCK DRAFT - Round 1 - Version 2.0

***I have taken the liberty of making a trade. :D I think the Panthers, currently slotted at #4, have too many needs to stay that high and overpay for an O-lineman. Similarly, at this juncture, the Chargers two #1 picks don't look like they are going to be very high, meaning the odds of them getting a top-notch WR or Olineman are slim-to-none. As such, I've traded the Chargers two #1s for the Panthers #1 and some later picks. Why? Because it makes a lot of sense to me.

1. Dolphins - Aaron Rogers - QB - Cal - Rogers is going 1st overall at this point. I think the "kicker" was in Cal's showdown with USC, where despite losing, Rogers put on a show against a strong defense and a big audience watching how he handled the pressure. He has fantastic size, a strong arm, and he completes a high percentage of his passes. In other words, he's what the Dolphins THOUGHT they were getting in AJ Feeley, except Rogers is actually as good as advertised.

2. Bears - Alex Barron - OT - FSU - They need to protect Grossman and open some holes for TJones. With Eric Winston's injury, Barron becomes the clear-cut top-rated Olineman in this draft. The Bears could get tempted by Mike Williams, but I think that they'll take the need position, which is O-line. If they take Williams, expect the Chargers (#4) to jump on Barron.

3. Cowboys (via Bills) - Rodrique Wright - DT - UTexas - The Cowboys are playing terribly this year, but at least they can be happy that the Bills are playing even worse. While Rolle would be a consideration here, I think Parcells will go with the top-rated D-tackle in the draft to put next to Glover and get his corner later. Wright gives Parcells the kind of player he most likes on D - big, fast, and coachable.

4. Chargers (Via Panthers) - Mike Williams - WR - F/A - The Chargers want Williams, and I think they'll move up to get him. If they can re-sign McCardell, then Keenan, Williams, Gates, Tomlinson, and Caldwell/Parker are going to give Drew Brees Philip Rivers some nice targets. Do I need to tell you anything else about Mike Williams that we haven't covered before? I had thought Braylon Edwards or Mark Clayton might challenge Williams for the WR1 spot in this draft, but Edwards drops too many balls and Clayton doesn't have Mike's size.

5. 49ers - Antrell Rolle - CB - Miami - As I said last time, Rolle is a fantastic corner who can shut down half of the field. Rattay is playing well enough to hold off drafting a QB and while this team has plenty of problems on the O side of things, Rolle is simply too good to pass up. He's not Champ Bailey good, but he's good enough to be a top-10 corner in by his 3rd season.

6. Raiders - Cedric Benson- RB - UTexas - Norv will take the best back available, and its Benson. And yes, I STILL think Benson is going to win the Heisman. He's now producing more all-purpose yards each game then Reggie Bush, and Cedric doesn't return kicks. Its also a big plus for Norv Turner and company that Benson is a big, bruising runner who's very productive between the tackles. Expect Benson to be the top Rookie selected in dynasty drafts across the land this spring/summer. I know some of you don't like him, but Benson is about as NFL-Ready as any skill-player in this draft.

7. Buccaneers - Mark Clayton - WR - Oklahoma - I know the need is O-line or even some Defense, but Jamal Brown isn't worth the #7 pick and unless Charles Lee establishes himself as an everydown WR (I'm not seeing it), then I expect there to be a pair of Clayton's in Tampa next year. In the last 12 months, Gruden has lost Keyshaun, McCardell, Juerevicius (sp?), and Galloway for various reasons. Time to bring in some quality youth for the dink-n-dunk-n-chunk offense.

8. Bengals - Antajj Hawthore- DT - Wisconsin - Hawthorne has helped himself immensly this season. He's a quality DT who does most things well. He's also a leader and is equally adept at stopping the run as he is at jamming the pocket and getting after the QB. The Bengals need someone who can plug up the middle in the worst way. Hawthorne makes perfect sense here. If not him, maybe Corey Webster.

9. Titans - Derrick Johnson - LB UTexas - The Titans offense is having trouble moving the ball consistantly, but they also can't stop anyone with any consistancy. The team might go with Clayton if he's available, but Johnson could line up next to Keith Bulluck and immediately improve a defense that can't seem to find its direction. He's fast and smart and while he might not be as aggressive as Jon Vilma, he's easily the best LB in this draft.

10. Redskins - Marcus Spears - DE - LSU - Joe Gibbs may love a prolific offense, but he also knows that winning in the trenches wins football games. Spears is a quality Defensive End that can rotate in for the Redskins and offer some quality size and speed for the aggressive Washington Defense.

11. Cardinals - Carnell Williams - RB - Auburn - I think Denny's going to let McCown keep the job at QB. Williams is not exceptional in the speed department, but he has the best vision of any RB in the draft and he's quick enough to get to (and through) the holes when they appear. I think that Shipp will get some carries, but Cadillac is going to be the feature piece in this offense. If, by chance, Hawthorne or Wright is avialable, they would be a consideration.

12. Cowboys - Corey Webster - CB - LSU - The Cowboys need another corner like I need air to breath. The defense has already gotten stronger up front with the addition of Wright, and now they get better in the secondary with another quality corner. Having 2 better then average CBs will allow the Cowboys defense to play more zone and offer more varied looks to the pass-heavy NFC East.

13. Chiefs - Ahmad Brooks - OLB - Virginia - The Chiefs defense continues to suck eggs. Brooks can help that the moment he hits the field. Brooks is a solid LB who makes plays at opportune times; something thats been in short supply at Arrowhead.

14. Browns - Jamal Brown - OT - Oklahoma - The Browns are in dire need of O-line help and luckily, they are playing just well enough that an early-teens pick of Brown will be a solid selection (as opposed to reaching for him in the top-10). If Butch Davis keeps his job, look for the offense to actually improve for '05 as (a) the Oline will be better with the addition of Brown (b) Garcia will have a year in the system © Winslow will be back and (d) Antonio Bryant will have 3/4 of a year to learn the Offense.

15. Saints - Matt Leinart - QB - USC - Despite the fact that I like Aaron Brooks and I think he's a top-8 QB in the league, I think that an impending coaching change in conjunction with the Offense's inconsistancies is going to mean Brooks's tenure in NO is not going to last much longer. Many people (myself included) think much of Leinart's success should be attributed to the system he's in, but irregardless of that, he has good size, a strong arm, and leadership qualities necessary in a 1st round QB. I think the "new" Saints will be happy to have him on board.

16. Texans - Mathias Kiwanuka - DE - Boston College - This pick will allow the Texans to do some interesting things with Babin and Robaire Smith (who will likely move to NT at times). Kiwanuka is big and fast and it wouldn't surprise me to see him climb a bit higher and get picked ahead of Spears.

17. Packers - Kyle Orton - QB - Purdue - The Packers need D help and Harris or Jackson would make plenty of sense. However, I'm not buying the "Brees to the Packers" talk just yet, and despite a couple poor outings, Kyle Orton is still an intriguing, and impressive, prospect. I think he's the perfect option to learn behind Farve for 1 or 2 years before taking over. He's got a strong arm, good size, and he understands a complex offense and has the ability to be coached. Orton reminds me of Carson Palmer (who was drafted too high) and should succeed in Green Bay given the opportunity.

18. Seahawks - Orien Harris - DT - UMiami - They have some depth at DT anyway, but the truth is, the D STILL needs playmakers. Harris is fine player and causes all kinds of havoc in the middle. He has a unique talent to get in the backfield, and the Seahawks will benefit greatly from having him around.



19. Panthers (via Chargers) - Andrew Whitworth - OT - LSU - I have them trading down because they are smart enough to realize that if they can't get Alex Barron, they need to get more value at O-line then reaching for Brown. Whitworth is a distant 3rd rated tackle in this draft. However, he has good technique and solid size and should help pretty quickly on a weakened Carolina line.

20. Lions - Erasmus James - DE - Wisconsin - James is a fantastic pass-rusher, which is a great need for a greatly improved Detroit team. James may have helped himself more than anyone else (except for teammate Hawthorne) in this draft and he absolutely should go in the top-20 barring incident. However, don't discount him slipping as fast as he climbed because he's had injury trouble in the past.

21. Ravens - Braylon Edwards - WR - Michigan - Edwards has played well this year, but not to the level that gets WRs in to the top-10. If he's there when the Ravens pick, however, they'd likely select him as they continue to try and solve their problems at WR.

22. Panthers (via Chargers via Giants) - Thomas Davis - S - UGA - The gamble works as the Panthers parlay the #4 pick in to a solid O-lineman and a talented defender in the secondary. Davis is the best safety in this draft and while he's not Sean Taylor or Roy Williams, he's every bit as good as Sean Jones and will likely grade out similarly.

23. Rams - David Pollack - DE - UGA- With Leonard Little likely playing in the Missouri Penal League for a while, Pollack can come in and start right away. Pollack is a bit of a mystery because despite the fact that he's consistant and a good leader, he's simply not "amazing" often enough to get all that excited about. THere are a few DEs who will go ahead of him and whenever that happens at any position, there's a big risk of slipping a round or more (Randy Starks, 2004) because the need has been filled by the desperate teams. At this point, I see Pollack still being a first-rounder, but he is a candidate to slip at a moment's notice if Spears/James/Kiku fill the first round need. HE could also move up with an injury to James.

24. Colts - Lance Mitchell - ILB - Oklahoma - The Colts need help at ILB, and Mitchell is a fantastic fit. He's a solid ILB and defends the pass well enough to be an assett to Dungy's system.

25. Falcons - Marcus McNeil - OT - Auburn - The Falcons defense was exposed last weekend, but they still need to get younger on the O-line. McNeil is a big - VERY BIG - guy and he's earned his stripes opening up holes for Cadillac and Brown at Auburn. I expect him to be the 4th tackle off the board but wouldn't be shocked if he was the 3rd (or even 2nd) one selected when the draft comes around.

26. Jets - Marlin Jackson - CB - Michigan - They still need a corner and thankfully, Jackson's draft status has taken a backseat to Webster and Rolle. Lucky for the Jets, Jackson may be available well in to the 20's, which would offer immediate help at a position of need for NEw York.

27. Broncos - Shaun Cody - DE - USC - The Broncos could go any number of ways here, but a guy like Cody would be a logical choice. Truthfully, he gets pushed around a little too much for my liking, but he's about 10 pounds away from being a defensive tackle and such versatility could offer some benefit for the improving Broncos defense.

28. Jaguars - Justin Miller - CB - Clemson - The Jaguars are winning with Defense and I expect that to continue. THe D-line is stout (particularly inside) and the LBs are playing well. Getting a quality corner like Miller would add depth to an already better-than-average defensive unit.

29. Vikings - Elton Brown - OG - Virginia - I was all excited about letting you know that Brown has moved past David Baas as the top-rated guard in the draft, but truthfully, it won't be that much of a shock if you've seen him play. Brown has great size for a guard and his run-blocking is probably the most improved "technique" piece of the entire 1st round. Guards don't usually go in round 1, but this makes plenty of sense for the Vikings. What's more, with a little work, he could be converted to tackle.

30. Steelers - Heath Miller - TE - Virginia - This is about the most obvious pick in round 1 and most MOcks have Miller going to the Steelers if he slips past the Broncos and the Steelers select in the bottom 3rd of the draft. The Steelers haven't had a decent TE in a while and unless they select Bing instead, I don't see a defensive player out there that would steer them away from Miller. Miller is not Shockey/Winslow caliber, but he's "Ben Watson" good, which should earn him a 1st round spot with a team needing a solid Tight End.

31. Eagles - Ronnie Brown - RB - Auburn - Ronnie sneaks in to the 1st round and immediately Eagles fans rejoice. Brown is stronger then his teammate (Williams) and I actually think he's PROBABLY going to be the better NFL'er of the two. His "slip" here is Philly's gain.

32. Patriots - Darnell Bing - S - USC - THe Pats secondary is getting a little older (as are the LBs) and Bing makes sense. He's extremelly athletic and if he comes out, I'm sure Bilichek would love to have a such a capable player with good technique and physical skills with whom to work.

HERD

 

Gatorman

Supreme Elite Maximum Tier
Herd. I disagree. the dolphins will go O line. They are not going to (in essence) spend their first 2 picks on QBs.

 

Colin Dowling

Footballguy
Herd. I disagree. the dolphins will go O line. They are not going to (in essence) spend their first 2 picks on QBs.
I think the new Coach will be given the opportunity to select the player he wants. Colin
 

Colin Dowling

Footballguy
Any thoughts on:Dan Orlovsky - QB - UConnAndrew Walter - QB - ASUTIA.
Walter - Probably QB4 off the board (Rogers, Leinart, Orton), early/mid 2nd round. A fantastic finish could get him in to the 1st round, but I don't see it. I don't particularly think he's going to be a great NFL QB, but thats just me.Orlovsky - QB5 at worst. Excellent performances in the post-season camps/games could move him ahead of Walter. I don't think he has the arm-strength to get in to the 1st round, and his long, timely throwing motion is going to pose a challenge for him at the next level.COlin
 
Last edited by a moderator:

guru_007

Footballguy
Very well thought out post.A few major disagreements though.No way is Aaron Rogers going #1 to the Dolphins. I think Rodrique Wright is a first rounder, but no way top three, and no way ahead of Derrick Johnson and Erasmus James.Personally, I would not be surprised to see both Shaun Cody and David Pollack go top 10, as they both are legitimite forces on the D-Line.If I had to go out on a limb and make a number one selection for the Dolphins, I would have to go with either Barron for O-Line, or Cadillac Williams.Good post though!

 
The Cowboys could go defensive line, but I've said all along that they need to put together an offensive line.I'd like them to get a guy who's going to help them run the football. They have no running game and Parcells knows this. I say spend their 1st round picks on 2 young studs up front.There's no doubt they need help at CB, but I am so tired of not being able to run the football this takes precedent.

 

Colin Dowling

Footballguy
Very well thought out post.A few major disagreements though.No way is Aaron Rogers going #1 to the Dolphins. I think Rodrique Wright is a first rounder, but no way top three, and no way ahead of Derrick Johnson and Erasmus James.Personally, I would not be surprised to see both Shaun Cody and David Pollack go top 10, as they both are legitimite forces on the D-Line.If I had to go out on a limb and make a number one selection for the Dolphins, I would have to go with either Barron for O-Line, or Cadillac Williams.Good post though!
Wright is going to be the top-rated player at a favorite draft-day position. He'll be in the top-10 with room to spare."Franchise" quarterbacks get everyone feeling warm inside. Rogers is going to be that guy this year. The LOWEST he'd go is 3rd overall. I think that despite common-sense, teams will continue drafting QBs with the #1 pick because not only do they help the team, they sell tickets/jerseys and give the team a face. The Dolphins are in turmoil and need to right the ship. THe pick is every bit PR move as it is about football.Cadillac isn't fast enough (or big enough) to go #1 overall.James has a bit of injury risk.Colin
 

Will Grant

Prince of Insufficient Light
Our league allows us to have a Farm System.Here are some of the guys who are protected, but no mentionedabove..Curious to see what you guys think of them?Ryan Moats RB Louisana TechDarren Sproles RB Kansas State Adrian Peterson RB OklahomaMarion Barber III RB MinnesotaAnthony Davis RB Wisc. Vernand Morrency RB Oklahoma StateKay-Jay Harris RB West Virginia

 

L5UT1ger

Footballguy
15. Saints - Matt Leinart - QB - USCHe would be more hated there that Aaron Brooks is now.Heck, I might go to the games just to boo him. :D

 

Bevo

Footballguy
Overall it's a pretty good analysis.I will keep my exceptions to a couple of teams I am fairly familiar with:1) The odds of Dallas actually selecting 2 first round picks is slim and none. Slim was last seen mounting his old nag and leaving town. Look for at least one of those first rounders to be traded for a player and/or picks. Don't be a bit surprised to see both of them traded. Jerry just can't stand the thought of paying first round money to a rookie.2) Based on recent history (since Mack showed up), I would be a bit surprised if Wright comes out this year. Mack has something going on with his players that makes them want to stay and Wright has said on a couple of occasions that he is having a great time. He could go, especially if he is a near guarantee to be a top-5 pick, but I expect him to be playing in Dallas again next year for our annual butt kicking.3) Where's Vince? He fell completely out of your first round? :devil:

 

Evilgrin72

Footballguy
HERD, three things :1) Steelers drafting #30 this time around. From #10 to #17 to #30... you're coming around. :D 2) Heath Miller... what can you tell me about this guy? Is he primarily a pass-catcher or a big blocker? The Steelers typically go with TEs that are devastating blockers - they rarely gameplan to throw to the TE. Is that a reflection of the talent at that spot or the other way around? Chicken or the egg.... I thought they'd go DB, DL, or especially OL in round 1 this year, they need a RT badly.3) Love, love, LOVE the mocks. Seriously, man... I am a draft-nut and just eat this stuff up. Being able to actually ask questions about the mock is a great and welcome change from all the others posted around the 'net. Keep it up.... outstanding stuff !!!!!!!! :thumbup:

 

Clark Griswold

Footballguy
Excellent Draft Picks!! :thumbup: I could see Antrell Rolle going even higher than 5. I think he is going to be the best CB in the NFL in a short time. He and Derrick Johnson are the two most talented players in the draft IMHO. I also think Ronnie Brown may end up 10 or so spots higher after the combine. Kid is for real.

 

TLEF316

Footballguy
i would loooooooove to see marlin jackson end up with the Jets. they really need a physical corner who can play bump and run against the smaller recievers, especially the Patriots. Ill be really pissed off if Darnell Bing falls to NE. When is the rest of the NFL gonna punish the Pats for picking so late in the draft? :rant: The rich get richer

 

Bevo

Footballguy
Our league allows us to have a Farm System.Here are some of the guys who are protected, but no mentionedabove..Curious to see what you guys think of them?Adrian Peterson RB Oklahoma
Peterson won't be draft eligible until until after his junior year, so he won't be going anywhere in the 2005 draft. However, barring injury, he is a top-5 (and likely #1 overall) when he does come out. Still kills me that this kid, who grew up as a Horns fan, took his awesome talent north of the Red River.
 

ILUVBEER99

Footballguy
The only WR that has a chance to go top 10 this year is Mike Williams.Clayton has no hope to be a top 10 pick.Last year we were spoiled with one of the best WR classes ever. The year before there were 2 big time WR's (Rogers, AJ).This year outside of Mike Williams I would be completely shocked if any others went in the top 10.This years WR class is not very good. Extremely weak besides Mike who has sat out a year, which could cause him to drop a bit, although he'll still go high.

 

Colin Dowling

Footballguy
Our league allows us to have a Farm System.Here are some of the guys who are protected, but no mentionedabove..Curious to see what you guys think of them?Ryan Moats RB Louisana TechDarren Sproles RB Kansas State Adrian Peterson RB OklahomaMarion Barber III RB MinnesotaAnthony Davis RB Wisc. Vernand Morrency RB Oklahoma StateKay-Jay Harris RB West Virginia
Moats - Jury's out. He is certainly a good player, but he's been a non-factor in the team's two big games (Tennessee, Miami) and he's a little small. Hecan certainly get in to the 2nd round pretty easily, but I don't see him getting in to the 1st.Sproles - The KSU team has done him no favors, but he's not doing much againsrt quality teams (A&M, OU) nor against bad teams (Kansas, Fresno). He'll need an excellent combine to get in to the first 2 rounds. Peterson - Not draft eligible.Barber - mid-to-late 2nd rounder for sure if he comes out. I happen to like Maroney more.Davis - Could as easily sneak in to the top-50 as drop to day 2. He's (a) small and (b) injured often. When healthy, he carries the load like a 5'11/225lb player, but he gets dinged a lot. I think he'll be a stael for someone in round 2 or 3.Harris - I don't think Harris is much better than average. At best, he still has a lot to prove. He's only carried the ball more than 20 times in three games of a 2 year career, and with the exception of East Carolina, he's hardly been amazing this year.Morrency - I know the least about him of the possible day 1 RB prospects. HE has great size and is playing very well. I like that he's consistent. Much beyond that, I can't comment on him with much accuracy.Colin
 

RBM

Footballguy
I might rather see Derrick Johnson go to the Bears. I think he is the best player in college football, and they could really use a playmaker on D

 

Colin Dowling

Footballguy
EvilGrin,Miller is a Receiver of the highest order. Dude recorded 103 catches and 15 TDs in his first 2 seasons at UVA. His blocking was suspect, but its getting better quickly. He's a draft-eligible Junior, 6'5, roughly 250. 25/350/4 in 6 games this year.Colin

 

Gatorman

Supreme Elite Maximum Tier
Herd. I disagree. the dolphins will go O line. They are not going to (in essence) spend their first 2 picks on QBs.
I think the new Coach will be given the opportunity to select the player he wants. Colin
I still disagree.If Miami cleans house at both the GM and Coach position there are 3 things that will happen.1) Scott Pioli and Charlie Weis (GM and HC): They both have a QB in brady who they got late, and worked with a QB (Bledsoe) that went 1st overall. No way they take a QB.2) Saban and a GM. Saban is from the bill belichek school of coaching, so D before O, especially QB.3) Randy Mueller/Ron Wolf and a new HC (Spurrier?): More of a draft down situation.Hopefully, the #1 pick is a QB, just not by the phins who need the picks to rebuild their O and D lines.
 

Capella

CAPELLODINHO
I just don't get it with Alex Barron...I've seen every snap of his college career, and fail to see how he could be considered a top-5 pick. He gets beat fairly often and seems sluggish off the snap.And on a critical 3rd and 4 the other day, he false starts. :hot: Just seems like he has bust-potential to me. I could be wrong, but I wouldn't want the Bucs taking him.

 

Colin Dowling

Footballguy
Herd.  I disagree.  the dolphins will go O line.  They are not going to (in essence) spend their first 2 picks on QBs.
I think the new Coach will be given the opportunity to select the player he wants. Colin
I still disagree.If Miami cleans house at both the GM and Coach position there are 3 things that will happen.1) Scott Pioli and Charlie Weis (GM and HC): They both have a QB in brady who they got late, and worked with a QB (Bledsoe) that went 1st overall. No way they take a QB.2) Saban and a GM. Saban is from the bill belichek school of coaching, so D before O, especially QB.3) Randy Mueller/Ron Wolf and a new HC (Spurrier?): More of a draft down situation.Hopefully, the #1 pick is a QB, just not by the phins who need the picks to rebuild their O and D lines.
I see what you are saying, I really do. I think Rogers is going to be the #1 pick at this point. Right now, to me, it makesthe most sense for the Dolphins to be the team making that pick. It would not shock me in the least for any number of teams to trade up.COlin
 

ICON211

Footballguy
Some observations:I think Dallas will take Rolle.If GB takes Orton at 17 they are making a big mistake. He will not be a good pro.James will be gone by 20. Cedric Benson has 0 shot of winning the heisman. Leinart, White, and Peterson all have a better chance right now and Rogers is making some waves.I think Edwards will be the first receiver off the board. Could be Williams but I don't think Clayton will go before him.

 
Last edited by a moderator:

Colin Dowling

Footballguy
Some observations:I think Dallas will take Rolle.If GB takes Orton at 17 they are making a big mistake. He will not be a good pro.James will be gone by 20. Cedric Benson has 0 shot of winning the heisman. Leinart, White, and Peterson all have a better chance right now and Rodgers is making some waves.
Benson is generating more YPG (178 to 146) then Peterson and he's scored more TDs (11 to 7). Peterson oVVNed him in their head-to-head meeting, but that is only one portion of the "race" between players headed for the Heisman final 4.Colin
 

Newman

Footballguy
1) The odds of Dallas actually selecting 2 first round picks is slim and none. Slim was last seen mounting his old nag and leaving town. Look for at least one of those first rounders to be traded for a player and/or picks. Don't be a bit surprised to see both of them traded. Jerry just can't stand the thought of paying first round money to a rookie.
I will be shocked if he trades those picks. I like the mock selections for the Cowboys at those 2 spots.
 

ICON211

Footballguy
Some observations:I think Dallas will take Rolle.If GB takes Orton at 17 they are making a big mistake. He will not be a good pro.James will be gone by 20. Cedric Benson has 0 shot of winning the heisman. Leinart, White, and Peterson all have a better chance right now and Rodgers is making some waves.
Benson is generating more YPG (178 to 146) then Peterson and he's scored more TDs (11 to 7). Peterson oVVNed him in their head-to-head meeting, but that is only one portion of the "race" between players headed for the Heisman final 4.Colin
I see your point but I think the head to head matchup was huge in voters minds. Also, I only expect Peterson's numbers to get better. Jones took some of his touches early that he will not going forward. Very tough for a freshman to get consideration from voters but he is special.
 

Newman

Footballguy
Some observations:I think Dallas will take Rolle.If GB takes Orton at 17 they are making a big mistake.  He will not be a good pro.James will be gone by 20. Cedric Benson has 0 shot of winning the heisman.  Leinart, White, and Peterson all have a better chance right now and Rodgers is making some waves.
Benson is generating more YPG (178 to 146) then Peterson and he's scored more TDs (11 to 7). Peterson oVVNed him in their head-to-head meeting, but that is only one portion of the "race" between players headed for the Heisman final 4.Colin
I see your point but I think the head to head matchup was huge in voters minds. Also, I only expect Peterson's numbers to get better. Jones took some of his touches early that he will not going forward. Very tough for a freshman to get consideration from voters but he is special.
Not to mention OU-Texas was in front of a national TV audience. I'm quite certain that game will resonate with voters when considering Benson.
 

Fiddles

Footballguy
15. Saints - Matt Leinart - QB - USC - Despite the fact that I like Aaron Brooks and I think he's a top-8 QB in the league, I think that an impending coaching change in conjunction with the Offense's inconsistancies is going to mean Brooks's tenure in NO is not going to last much longer. Many people (myself included) think much of Leinart's success should be attributed to the system he's in, but irregardless of that, he has good size, a strong arm, and leadership qualities necessary in a 1st round QB. I think the "new" Saints will be happy to have him on board.

.

.

.

17. Packers - Kyle Orton - QB - Purdue - The Packers need D help and Harris or Jackson would make plenty of sense. However, I'm not buying the "Brees to the Packers" talk just yet, and despite a couple poor outings, Kyle Orton is still an intriguing, and impressive, prospect. I think he's the perfect option to learn behind Farve for 1 or 2 years before taking over. He's got a strong arm, good size, and he understands a complex offense and has the ability to be coached. Orton reminds me of Carson Palmer (who was drafted too high) and should succeed in Green Bay given the opportunity.
f'n doubletalk :thumbdown:
1b. Leinart is going to likely win the Heisman, but he's not a better QB then Orton from a "pro-prospect" perspective. I'll bet dollars to donuts that Orton and Rogers go ten picks before Leinart. And yes, feel free to bump this in April.

Colin
 

Bloom

Moderator
HERD,excellent stuff as always. here's my question: if a pedestrian fan like me can see that ronnie brown will be a better pro than cadillac, and an expert fan like you can see it, then why do you assume that NFL scouts won't see it?

 

JAA

Footballguy
Other than not wanting to pay 2 1st round pick salaries, I think it would be stupid for SD to trade 2 1st rounders for Mike Wiilliams. Reche and Parker have looked ok and McCardel adds that veteran leadership. SD needs to go D and D often.JAA

 

shelmark

Footballguy
No to Orton in Green Bay. I think Favre will retire but the Pack will want a veteran and will make a major move for Brees, allowing them to draft a defensive lineman with their first pick...Erasmus James

 

jgb95

Footballguy
Hey Colin:Three questions:1) What do you think about Michael Boley of SMSt? Where is he projected to go?2) Where do you see Donte Nicholson OU S going in the draft?3) Will D Bing be eligible for the 2005 draft? I know he's a sophmore.

 

Evilgrin72

Footballguy
EvilGrin,Miller is a Receiver of the highest order. Dude recorded 103 catches and 15 TDs in his first 2 seasons at UVA. His blocking was suspect, but its getting better quickly. He's a draft-eligible Junior, 6'5, roughly 250. 25/350/4 in 6 games this year.Colin
Thanks. I am wondering about this... it sounds from what you're saying and what I have read today like this would be a tremendous value pick to get the #1 rated guy at any position at #30, but the Steelers never seem to go for the big-play TE, they tend to wait and draft good blocking TEs late. It's possible they want to help Roethlisberger out by giving him as many weapons as possible though.Question (to HERD or anyone who follows USC) : Does Darnell Bing have the speed/instincts to play CB as well as safety? If so, they may go that way......
 

ColtsFreak

Footballguy
Same deal as last time. Its been a few weeks and so (a) I've seen more college ball (b) I've seem more NFL and individual team needs and © wins and losses are helping establish the draft order a little more clearly.

Please pick this apart as much as you like, and I'll try to respond with as much info as possible for any questions that come up regarding any prospects. The draft order is hardly worth debating as its based on CURRENT NFL standings with me being the sole decision-maker when teams have the same records.

Most picks are based on need of the NFL team listed. Some players will obviously play themselves up/down the draft boards and end up as "best player available" going to a team that doesn't seem to need them. However, for now, we're trying to fill a need with every team. Enjoy...

HERD's NFL MOCK DRAFT - Round 1 - Version 2.0

***I have taken the liberty of making a trade. :D I think the Panthers, currently slotted at #4, have too many needs to stay that high and overpay for an O-lineman. Similarly, at this juncture, the Chargers two #1 picks don't look like they are going to be very high, meaning the odds of them getting a top-notch WR or Olineman are slim-to-none. As such, I've traded the Chargers two #1s for the Panthers #1 and some later picks. Why? Because it makes a lot of sense to me.

1. Dolphins - Aaron Rogers - QB - Cal - Rogers is going 1st overall at this point. I think the "kicker" was in Cal's showdown with USC, where despite losing, Rogers put on a show against a strong defense and a big audience watching how he handled the pressure. He has fantastic size, a strong arm, and he completes a high percentage of his passes. In other words, he's what the Dolphins THOUGHT they were getting in AJ Feeley, except Rogers is actually as good as advertised.

2. Bears - Alex Barron - OT - FSU - They need to protect Grossman and open some holes for TJones. With Eric Winston's injury, Barron becomes the clear-cut top-rated Olineman in this draft. The Bears could get tempted by Mike Williams, but I think that they'll take the need position, which is O-line. If they take Williams, expect the Chargers (#4) to jump on Barron.

3. Cowboys (via Bills) - Rodrique Wright - DT - UTexas - The Cowboys are playing terribly this year, but at least they can be happy that the Bills are playing even worse. While Rolle would be a consideration here, I think Parcells will go with the top-rated D-tackle in the draft to put next to Glover and get his corner later. Wright gives Parcells the kind of player he most likes on D - big, fast, and coachable.

4. Chargers (Via Panthers) - Mike Williams - WR - F/A - The Chargers want Williams, and I think they'll move up to get him. If they can re-sign McCardell, then Keenan, Williams, Gates, Tomlinson, and Caldwell/Parker are going to give Drew Brees Philip Rivers some nice targets. Do I need to tell you anything else about Mike Williams that we haven't covered before? I had thought Braylon Edwards or Mark Clayton might challenge Williams for the WR1 spot in this draft, but Edwards drops too many balls and Clayton doesn't have Mike's size.

5. 49ers - Antrell Rolle - CB - Miami - As I said last time, Rolle is a fantastic corner who can shut down half of the field. Rattay is playing well enough to hold off drafting a QB and while this team has plenty of problems on the O side of things, Rolle is simply too good to pass up. He's not Champ Bailey good, but he's good enough to be a top-10 corner in by his 3rd season.

6. Raiders - Cedric Benson- RB - UTexas - Norv will take the best back available, and its Benson. And yes, I STILL think Benson is going to win the Heisman. He's now producing more all-purpose yards each game then Reggie Bush, and Cedric doesn't return kicks. Its also a big plus for Norv Turner and company that Benson is a big, bruising runner who's very productive between the tackles. Expect Benson to be the top Rookie selected in dynasty drafts across the land this spring/summer. I know some of you don't like him, but Benson is about as NFL-Ready as any skill-player in this draft.

7. Buccaneers - Mark Clayton - WR - Oklahoma - I know the need is O-line or even some Defense, but Jamal Brown isn't worth the #7 pick and unless Charles Lee establishes himself as an everydown WR (I'm not seeing it), then I expect there to be a pair of Clayton's in Tampa next year. In the last 12 months, Gruden has lost Keyshaun, McCardell, Juerevicius (sp?), and Galloway for various reasons. Time to bring in some quality youth for the dink-n-dunk-n-chunk offense.

8. Bengals - Antajj Hawthore- DT - Wisconsin - Hawthorne has helped himself immensly this season. He's a quality DT who does most things well. He's also a leader and is equally adept at stopping the run as he is at jamming the pocket and getting after the QB. The Bengals need someone who can plug up the middle in the worst way. Hawthorne makes perfect sense here. If not him, maybe Corey Webster.

9. Titans - Derrick Johnson - LB UTexas - The Titans offense is having trouble moving the ball consistantly, but they also can't stop anyone with any consistancy. The team might go with Clayton if he's available, but Johnson could line up next to Keith Bulluck and immediately improve a defense that can't seem to find its direction. He's fast and smart and while he might not be as aggressive as Jon Vilma, he's easily the best LB in this draft.

10. Redskins - Marcus Spears - DE - LSU - Joe Gibbs may love a prolific offense, but he also knows that winning in the trenches wins football games. Spears is a quality Defensive End that can rotate in for the Redskins and offer some quality size and speed for the aggressive Washington Defense.

11. Cardinals - Carnell Williams - RB - Auburn - I think Denny's going to let McCown keep the job at QB. Williams is not exceptional in the speed department, but he has the best vision of any RB in the draft and he's quick enough to get to (and through) the holes when they appear. I think that Shipp will get some carries, but Cadillac is going to be the feature piece in this offense. If, by chance, Hawthorne or Wright is avialable, they would be a consideration.

12. Cowboys - Corey Webster - CB - LSU - The Cowboys need another corner like I need air to breath. The defense has already gotten stronger up front with the addition of Wright, and now they get better in the secondary with another quality corner. Having 2 better then average CBs will allow the Cowboys defense to play more zone and offer more varied looks to the pass-heavy NFC East.

13. Chiefs - Ahmad Brooks - OLB - Virginia - The Chiefs defense continues to suck eggs. Brooks can help that the moment he hits the field. Brooks is a solid LB who makes plays at opportune times; something thats been in short supply at Arrowhead.

14. Browns - Jamal Brown - OT - Oklahoma - The Browns are in dire need of O-line help and luckily, they are playing just well enough that an early-teens pick of Brown will be a solid selection (as opposed to reaching for him in the top-10). If Butch Davis keeps his job, look for the offense to actually improve for '05 as (a) the Oline will be better with the addition of Brown (b) Garcia will have a year in the system © Winslow will be back and (d) Antonio Bryant will have 3/4 of a year to learn the Offense.

15. Saints - Matt Leinart - QB - USC - Despite the fact that I like Aaron Brooks and I think he's a top-8 QB in the league, I think that an impending coaching change in conjunction with the Offense's inconsistancies is going to mean Brooks's tenure in NO is not going to last much longer. Many people (myself included) think much of Leinart's success should be attributed to the system he's in, but irregardless of that, he has good size, a strong arm, and leadership qualities necessary in a 1st round QB. I think the "new" Saints will be happy to have him on board.

16. Texans - Mathias Kiwanuka - DE - Boston College - This pick will allow the Texans to do some interesting things with Babin and Robaire Smith (who will likely move to NT at times). Kiwanuka is big and fast and it wouldn't surprise me to see him climb a bit higher and get picked ahead of Spears.

17. Packers - Kyle Orton - QB - Purdue - The Packers need D help and Harris or Jackson would make plenty of sense. However, I'm not buying the "Brees to the Packers" talk just yet, and despite a couple poor outings, Kyle Orton is still an intriguing, and impressive, prospect. I think he's the perfect option to learn behind Farve for 1 or 2 years before taking over. He's got a strong arm, good size, and he understands a complex offense and has the ability to be coached. Orton reminds me of Carson Palmer (who was drafted too high) and should succeed in Green Bay given the opportunity.

18. Seahawks - Orien Harris - DT - UMiami - They have some depth at DT anyway, but the truth is, the D STILL needs playmakers. Harris is fine player and causes all kinds of havoc in the middle. He has a unique talent to get in the backfield, and the Seahawks will benefit greatly from having him around.



19. Panthers (via Chargers) - Andrew Whitworth - OT - LSU - I have them trading down because they are smart enough to realize that if they can't get Alex Barron, they need to get more value at O-line then reaching for Brown. Whitworth is a distant 3rd rated tackle in this draft. However, he has good technique and solid size and should help pretty quickly on a weakened Carolina line.

20. Lions - Erasmus James - DE - Wisconsin - James is a fantastic pass-rusher, which is a great need for a greatly improved Detroit team. James may have helped himself more than anyone else (except for teammate Hawthorne) in this draft and he absolutely should go in the top-20 barring incident. However, don't discount him slipping as fast as he climbed because he's had injury trouble in the past.

21. Ravens - Braylon Edwards - WR - Michigan - Edwards has played well this year, but not to the level that gets WRs in to the top-10. If he's there when the Ravens pick, however, they'd likely select him as they continue to try and solve their problems at WR.

22. Panthers (via Chargers via Giants) - Thomas Davis - S - UGA - The gamble works as the Panthers parlay the #4 pick in to a solid O-lineman and a talented defender in the secondary. Davis is the best safety in this draft and while he's not Sean Taylor or Roy Williams, he's every bit as good as Sean Jones and will likely grade out similarly.

23. Rams - David Pollack - DE - UGA- With Leonard Little likely playing in the Missouri Penal League for a while, Pollack can come in and start right away. Pollack is a bit of a mystery because despite the fact that he's consistant and a good leader, he's simply not "amazing" often enough to get all that excited about. THere are a few DEs who will go ahead of him and whenever that happens at any position, there's a big risk of slipping a round or more (Randy Starks, 2004) because the need has been filled by the desperate teams. At this point, I see Pollack still being a first-rounder, but he is a candidate to slip at a moment's notice if Spears/James/Kiku fill the first round need. HE could also move up with an injury to James.

24. Colts - Lance Mitchell - ILB - Oklahoma - The Colts need help at ILB, and Mitchell is a fantastic fit. He's a solid ILB and defends the pass well enough to be an assett to Dungy's system.

25. Falcons - Marcus McNeil - OT - Auburn - The Falcons defense was exposed last weekend, but they still need to get younger on the O-line. McNeil is a big - VERY BIG - guy and he's earned his stripes opening up holes for Cadillac and Brown at Auburn. I expect him to be the 4th tackle off the board but wouldn't be shocked if he was the 3rd (or even 2nd) one selected when the draft comes around.

26. Jets - Marlin Jackson - CB - Michigan - They still need a corner and thankfully, Jackson's draft status has taken a backseat to Webster and Rolle. Lucky for the Jets, Jackson may be available well in to the 20's, which would offer immediate help at a position of need for NEw York.

27. Broncos - Shaun Cody - DE - USC - The Broncos could go any number of ways here, but a guy like Cody would be a logical choice. Truthfully, he gets pushed around a little too much for my liking, but he's about 10 pounds away from being a defensive tackle and such versatility could offer some benefit for the improving Broncos defense.

28. Jaguars - Justin Miller - CB - Clemson - The Jaguars are winning with Defense and I expect that to continue. THe D-line is stout (particularly inside) and the LBs are playing well. Getting a quality corner like Miller would add depth to an already better-than-average defensive unit.

29. Vikings - Elton Brown - OG - Virginia - I was all excited about letting you know that Brown has moved past David Baas as the top-rated guard in the draft, but truthfully, it won't be that much of a shock if you've seen him play. Brown has great size for a guard and his run-blocking is probably the most improved "technique" piece of the entire 1st round. Guards don't usually go in round 1, but this makes plenty of sense for the Vikings. What's more, with a little work, he could be converted to tackle.

30. Steelers - Heath Miller - TE - Virginia - This is about the most obvious pick in round 1 and most MOcks have Miller going to the Steelers if he slips past the Broncos and the Steelers select in the bottom 3rd of the draft. The Steelers haven't had a decent TE in a while and unless they select Bing instead, I don't see a defensive player out there that would steer them away from Miller. Miller is not Shockey/Winslow caliber, but he's "Ben Watson" good, which should earn him a 1st round spot with a team needing a solid Tight End.

31. Eagles - Ronnie Brown - RB - Auburn - Ronnie sneaks in to the 1st round and immediately Eagles fans rejoice. Brown is stronger then his teammate (Williams) and I actually think he's PROBABLY going to be the better NFL'er of the two. His "slip" here is Philly's gain.

32. Patriots - Darnell Bing - S - USC - THe Pats secondary is getting a little older (as are the LBs) and Bing makes sense. He's extremelly athletic and if he comes out, I'm sure Bilichek would love to have a such a capable player with good technique and physical skills with whom to work.

HERD
Wow! The best & most informative posting I have seen since joining this board!!! Much props to you, Colin!! :thumbup: :thumbup: :thumbup: :thumbup: But, why do you think the colts will look at linebacker for the 5th time in 3 years.....I would say CB is the more likely position of need right now. Your thoughts please!!!!

Thanks :goodposting: :goodposting: :goodposting: :goodposting:

 

MU Seminole

Footballguy
Capella beat me to this point.I've seen every game of Alex Barron's at FSU and am maybe more of an FSU homer than Capella (?!) - I've taken the UM sig bet three years running.Anyway, he should not go before the middle of Round 1. By draft day I think that's where he'll end up. Doesn't have the mean streak or physicality of someone like Gallery (the most recent OL chosen that high).

 

Colin Dowling

Footballguy
1. I like how Domer likes opinions to be stagnant. He can call it double-talk if he likes; I call it not being stubborn and realizing that when things change, its best to own up to it. 2. I don't think the Indy interior LBs are working out as expected. They may have drafted 3 in 5 years, but they still can't tackle a lick.3. Edwards at 21 simply because we've gotten spoiled in the last 2 drafts with WRs going so high. Traditionally, even the best WRs don't go much higher then the 10-12 range. 21 is still pretty high for a WR.4. My understanding is that Bing is eligible.Colin

 

Fiddles

Footballguy
1. I like how Domer likes opinions to be stagnant. He can call it double-talk if he likes; I call it not being stubborn and realizing that when things change, its best to own up to it.
someone has to keep you people honest around here, Mr. Dollars-for-Donuts :lol:
 

Colin Dowling

Footballguy
1. I like how Domer likes opinions to be stagnant. He can call it double-talk if he likes; I call it not being stubborn and realizing that when things change, its best to own up to it.
someone has to keep you people honest around here, Mr. Dollars-for-Donuts :lol:
I'm flattered.......and looking forward to cheering as the Vols roll the Domers next weekend. ;) Colin
 

pgreenfan

Footballguy
Overall it's a pretty good analysis.I will keep my exceptions to a couple of teams I am fairly familiar with:1) The odds of Dallas actually selecting 2 first round picks is slim and none. Slim was last seen mounting his old nag and leaving town. Look for at least one of those first rounders to be traded for a player and/or picks. Don't be a bit surprised to see both of them traded. Jerry just can't stand the thought of paying first round money to a rookie.2) Based on recent history (since Mack showed up), I would be a bit surprised if Wright comes out this year. Mack has something going on with his players that makes them want to stay and Wright has said on a couple of occasions that he is having a great time. He could go, especially if he is a near guarantee to be a top-5 pick, but I expect him to be playing in Dallas again next year for our annual butt kicking.3) Where's Vince? He fell completely out of your first round? :devil:
1. I don't think that the Cowboys have a problem paying first round picks if they feel there is a significant difference in the player and what they could draft by trading down. Newman and Roy Williams are examples. Also I think Drew Henson was paid very well when they got him so I think it is not unliklely that the Cowboys use the picks if the perceive them to add quality players.
 

Fiddles

Footballguy
...and looking forward to cheering as the Vols roll the Domers next weekend. ;) Colin
me too, actually :unsure: ...although it would be just like ND to pull the upset and buy Ty another f'n yearsomething to watch for in the game - a holiday option pass...we haven't used it to date so either:(a) we've been saving it for UT(b) we've been saving it for So Cal© Ty is so stubborn in his WCO and using Quinn and not Carlyle that he'll hurt the team for it
 

BoltzNBrew

Footballguy
Horrible trade for the Chargers, with the addition of McCardell and Shaw trading 2 1st round picks for 1 WR when they could get OL and DL and get WRs in later rounds doesn't make sense.

 

ICON211

Footballguy
3. Edwards at 21 simply because we've gotten spoiled in the last 2 drafts with WRs going so high. Traditionally, even the best WRs don't go much higher then the 10-12 range. 21 is still pretty high for a WR.
I think Edwards will be the first WR off the board. I can see Williams possibly being taken over him but not Clayton. Raiders might take WR if (and I hope not) they get Ricky and Porter leaves.
 

EastBayFunk

Footballguy
That's a pretty good looking mock. One gripe that I have is Matt Leinart's position. Recent history says that at least two QBs will be top ten picks. I agree that Rodgers is going to be one of those guys, but I also think Leinart figures to be a very high pick, perhaps to the Titans, Raiders, Chiefs, or some other team via a trade. This draft is making me sad because it looks so weak from a fantasy perspective. There are a few gems slipping through the cracks, but for the most part I don't think these guys compare to last year's class. Mike Williams is a nice player, but I have some concerns about how his game will translate to the next level. Braylon Edwards is ok, but he's not a special player. I think Mark Clayton is a bust waiting to happen unless he can surprise me with his speed. The guys I'm interested in are Chris Henry and Craphonso Thorpe. Thorpe is having a very poor season, but he has what it takes to become a playmaker in the NFL. As for the RBs, Benson never impressed me last year. I haven't watched him for more than a few plays this year, but as of right now I don't think he's nearly worthy of a top ten selection. I'll have a more solid opinion of him after I watch his bowl game. I like Cadillac, but he's undersized for a guy who likes to run hard. I can see him being very successful at the next level, but he has some faults. Ronnie Brown looks like he could be a good back. From what I remember he vaguely reminds me of Kevan Barlow in terms of style. The strength of this draft class is definitely QB. If Rogers and Leinart come out then they will both be high picks. Kyle Orton figures into the round one mix. Guys like Andrew Walter, Dan Orlovsky, and Adrian McPherson have the potential to develop into starters.

 

LHUCKS

Footballguy
15. Saints - Matt Leinart - QB - USCHe would be more hated there that Aaron Brooks is now.Heck, I might go to the games just to boo him. :D
Yeah...I don't see Leinart going this high.
 

Bevo

Footballguy
Overall it's a pretty good analysis.I will keep my exceptions to a couple of teams I am fairly familiar with:1) The odds of Dallas actually selecting 2 first round picks is slim and none. Slim was last seen mounting his old nag and leaving town. Look for at least one of those first rounders to be traded for a player and/or picks. Don't be a bit surprised to see both of them traded. Jerry just can't stand the thought of paying first round money to a rookie.2) Based on recent history (since Mack showed up), I would be a bit surprised if Wright comes out this year. Mack has something going on with his players that makes them want to stay and Wright has said on a couple of occasions that he is having a great time. He could go, especially if he is a near guarantee to be a top-5 pick, but I expect him to be playing in Dallas again next year for our annual butt kicking.3) Where's Vince? He fell completely out of your first round? :devil:
1. I don't think that the Cowboys have a problem paying first round picks if they feel there is a significant difference in the player and what they could draft by trading down. Newman and Roy Williams are examples. Also I think Drew Henson was paid very well when they got him so I think it is not unliklely that the Cowboys use the picks if the perceive them to add quality players.
I guess we will see. I will be absolutely shocked if they select, sign and keep both of their number 1 picks. I won't be a bit surprised if they trade both of them and move completely out of the 1st round. Won't be that long and we will find out.
 

EastBayFunk

Footballguy
:lol: at the Phins if they take a QB in the 1st. :rotflmao: :rotflmao: :rotflmao:
Knowing the Phins, they'll trade the pick to the Cowboys for Eddie George. I'm just kidding of course, but they sure seem to like acquiring mediocre talent in return for high picks. The only good deal they made was for David Boston and we all know how that's worked out so far.
 

Users who are viewing this thread

Top