Hernandez or Gronkowski? (1 Viewer)

[Tackling Dummies]

...the real issue to me at this point is will NE actually turn to the TEs as much as they did in the preseason or will they go back to being mostly an afterthought like they've done the past few years.

This does not make sense on a few points. The again, who knows that Hoodie is up to. Hernandez is my call as he can line up all over the field, but we'll see. a) Considering that the picks were a 2 & 4, that speaks to the desire to use them. These are pure Belichick picks, he did not inherit them. b) The offensive line is a bit shaky and having a two (or at least one) TE for dump offs will be evident sooner than later. c) Hernandez has played in a similar system at UF, he should have the playbook down. d) With Welker's unknown health, having TEs in the seam, crossing or under are needed options.

 

[tombonneau]

...the real issue to me at this point is will NE actually turn to the TEs as much as they did in the preseason or will they go back to being mostly an afterthought like they've done the past few years.

This does not make sense on a few points. The again, who knows that Hoodie is up to. Hernandez is my call as he can line up all over the field, but we'll see. a) Considering that the picks were a 2 & 4, that speaks to the desire to use them. These are pure Belichick picks, he did not inherit them. b) The offensive line is a bit shaky and having a two (or at least one) TE for dump offs will be evident sooner than later. c) Hernandez has played in a similar system at UF, he should have the playbook down. d) With Welker's unknown health, having TEs in the seam, crossing or under are needed options.

It makes plenty of sense. Their draft status means nothing; BB previously drafted two TEs in the first round and proceeding to not feature then in the passing game to any significant extent.I'm hoping this season is different, but you are certainly right to question how much the TE gets used this year in the NE offense, considering it will be the first time ever in BB's tenure that TEs will be featured prominently in the passing game.

 

[Iwannabeacowboybaby!]

Mike Reiss, the #1 pats beat writer (ESPNBoston) said Gronk in todays mailbag b/c of being a primary red zone target.

The female reporter you had on one of your podcasts a few weeks ago said the same thing, that's where I heard it first, before the 2 TD preseason game. She said Gronkowski (since nicknamed The Rhino by me) was the goaline guy in practices and Hernandez was like a receiver in the middle of the field. Both guys were impressing coaches. I took note of that and in that next game The Rhino catches 2 TD passes, then the next week he catches another TD pass. I have went stud TE and Rhino in the 3 drafts since that Podcast and happy with that decision. I think The Rhino's value is definately worth more in Non PPR leagues.If he isn't the guy, I lose nothing because he was the 2nd from last round pick in every draft for me. An excellent example of low risk/high reward with a great QB like Tom Brady.

 

[daveR]

I don't see how Hernandez is a slam dunk here, Gronk is a better blocker and you must block as a TE in the Patriots system. I see them using Hernandez as more of an H-back type and in two TE sets.

The poll was begun prior to Gronk showing up big in the preseason.

 

[WFR]

If you could just morph the tow of them together 2/46/1TD

As it played out Sunday:

Hernandez 45 yds = 4.5 pts.

Gronkowski 1 yd + 1 TD = 6.1 pts

They're both riding my dynasty bench until I need one on a bye week.

Both look promising!

If Moss talks his way out of NE someone's going to get some extra targets next year.

 

[tombonneau]

If you could just morph the tow of them together 2/46/1TDAs it played out Sunday:Hernandez 45 yds = 4.5 pts.Gronkowski 1 yd + 1 TD = 6.1 ptsThey're both riding my dynasty bench until I need one on a bye week.Both look promising!If Moss talks his way out of NE someone's going to get some extra targets next year.

Also work noting Hernandez got a look in the red zone and almost made a really nice catch but dropped it. So RZ looks won't be exclusive to Gronk.

 

[shader]

Both look really good for dynasty purposes, but I wouldn't count on either one in 2010 as being a reliable prospect.

 

[shortbow]

If you could just morph the tow of them together 2/46/1TDAs it played out Sunday:Hernandez 45 yds = 4.5 pts.Gronkowski 1 yd + 1 TD = 6.1 ptsThey're both riding my dynasty bench until I need one on a bye week.Both look promising!If Moss talks his way out of NE someone's going to get some extra targets next year.

My leagues are all td=4pointers. So... Hernandez 4.4Gronk 4.1... splitting hairs at this point.

Welker isnt always gonna be open in the red, when he isnt it will go to gronk.

 

[Cassius]

Plays per Mike Reiss:

WR Randy Moss – 50 of 62

TE Rob Gronkowski – 47 of 62

TE Alge Crumpler -- 36 of 32

WR Wes Welker – 36 of 62

WR Brandon Tate – 33 of 62

TE Aaron Hernandez – 29 of 62

RB Kevin Faulk – 28 of 62

RB Fred Taylor – 24 of 62

RB BenJarvus Green-Ellis – 10 of 62

FB Sammy Morris – 6 of 62

FB Dan Connolly – 2 of 62

 

[David Yudkin]

Plays per Mike Reiss:

WR Randy Moss – 50 of 62

TE Rob Gronkowski – 47 of 62

TE Alge Crumpler -- 36 of 32

WR Wes Welker – 36 of 62

WR Brandon Tate – 33 of 62

TE Aaron Hernandez – 29 of 62

RB Kevin Faulk – 28 of 62

RB Fred Taylor – 24 of 62

RB BenJarvus Green-Ellis – 10 of 62

FB Sammy Morris – 6 of 62

FB Dan Connolly – 2 of 62

And? If Gronkowski is in on twice as many plays and is used as a blocker, how does that help him? To me, the take away item here is that the Pats TE trio caught 3 passes. So after one game, their new master plan of getting the TEs more involved really didn't happen. Still a long ways to go though.

 

[WFR]

Plays per Mike Reiss:

WR Randy Moss – 50 of 62

TE Rob Gronkowski – 47 of 62

TE Alge Crumpler -- 36 of 32

WR Wes Welker – 36 of 62

WR Brandon Tate – 33 of 62

TE Aaron Hernandez – 29 of 62

RB Kevin Faulk – 28 of 62

RB Fred Taylor – 24 of 62

RB BenJarvus Green-Ellis – 10 of 62

FB Sammy Morris – 6 of 62

FB Dan Connolly – 2 of 62

And? If Gronkowski is in on twice as many plays and is used as a blocker, how does that help him? To me, the take away item here is that the Pats TE trio caught 3 passes. So after one game, their new master plan of getting the TEs more involved really didn't happen. Still a long ways to go though.

Let's just chalk it up to being Week 1.Let's see how involved they are this week with Moss on Revis Island, Edelman questionable and Welker probable.

I see 60-70yds and at least one TD between them.

Gronk was on the field for 15 of 16 plays in the redzone last weekend.

I think Hernandez may go nuts this week!

 

[Cassius]

Plays per Mike Reiss:

WR Randy Moss – 50 of 62

TE Rob Gronkowski – 47 of 62

TE Alge Crumpler -- 36 of 32

WR Wes Welker – 36 of 62

WR Brandon Tate – 33 of 62

TE Aaron Hernandez – 29 of 62

RB Kevin Faulk – 28 of 62

RB Fred Taylor – 24 of 62

RB BenJarvus Green-Ellis – 10 of 62

FB Sammy Morris – 6 of 62

FB Dan Connolly – 2 of 62

And? If Gronkowski is in on twice as many plays and is used as a blocker, how does that help him? To me, the take away item here is that the Pats TE trio caught 3 passes. So after one game, their new master plan of getting the TEs more involved really didn't happen. Still a long ways to go though.

Was just posting how many plays they were each on the field for. I thought people would want to know. I think someone needs a nap or something.

 

[KGB]

I think these guys will have a good weekend. The Jets will be all over the wideouts. I dont think they can cover

Moss

Welker

edelman

Tate

Hernandez

Gronk and

Crumpler

the TE's will have the best matchups and the pats will take what is givin to them. I think Faulk will have a decent amount of catches too. 5 or so.

 

[ROBOPUNTER]

I think these guys will have a good weekend. The Jets will be all over the wideouts. I dont think they can coverMossWelkeredelmanTateHernandezGronk andCrumplerthe TE's will have the best matchups and the pats will take what is givin to them. I think Faulk will have a decent amount of catches too. 5 or so.

That's 7 guys. Is Edelman playing QB?

 

[Go deep]

If you could just morph the tow of them together 2/46/1TDAs it played out Sunday:Hernandez 45 yds = 4.5 pts.Gronkowski 1 yd + 1 TD = 6.1 ptsThey're both riding my dynasty bench until I need one on a bye week.Both look promising!If Moss talks his way out of NE someone's going to get some extra targets next year.

Also work noting Hernandez got a look in the red zone and almost made a really nice catch but dropped it. So RZ looks won't be exclusive to Gronk.

That was an easy catch that he just dropped.

 

[WFR]

Plays per Mike Reiss:

WR Randy Moss – 50 of 62

TE Rob Gronkowski – 47 of 62

TE Alge Crumpler -- 36 of 32

WR Wes Welker – 36 of 62

WR Brandon Tate – 33 of 62

TE Aaron Hernandez – 29 of 62

RB Kevin Faulk – 28 of 62

RB Fred Taylor – 24 of 62

RB BenJarvus Green-Ellis – 10 of 62

FB Sammy Morris – 6 of 62

FB Dan Connolly – 2 of 62

And? If Gronkowski is in on twice as many plays and is used as a blocker, how does that help him? To me, the take away item here is that the Pats TE trio caught 3 passes. So after one game, their new master plan of getting the TEs more involved really didn't happen. Still a long ways to go though.

Let's just chalk it up to being Week 1.Let's see how involved they are this week with Moss on Revis Island, Edelman questionable and Welker probable.

I see 60-70yds and at least one TD between them.

Gronk was on the field for 15 of 16 plays in the redzone last weekend.

I think Hernandez may go nuts this week!

I'm liking what I am seeing do far!

 

[Mr. Bojangles]

Week 2:

A. Hernandez 6 101

R. Gronkowski 1 14

Hernandez was the leading receiver for the Pats.

And Hernandez was targeted six times and made six catches, pretty imprsssive. I am playing Hernandez this week over Zach miller as I think his targets will be in the 6-10 range per week.

 

[comet909]

Week 2:

A. Hernandez 6 101

R. Gronkowski 1 14

Hernandez was the leading receiver for the Pats.

And Hernandez was targeted six times and made six catches, pretty imprsssive. I am playing Hernandez this week over Zach miller as I think his targets will be in the 6-10 range per week.

I'm also considering putting him in over miller. Guy's just electric. Looks like a WR.

 

[dagwood]

Week 2:

A. Hernandez 6 101

R. Gronkowski 1 14

Hernandez was the leading receiver for the Pats.

And Hernandez was targeted six times and made six catches, pretty imprsssive. I am playing Hernandez this week over Zach miller as I think his targets will be in the 6-10 range per week.

How many targets do you think will go to Moss and Welker; then how many targets will go Faulk/B.Tate. How many targets will go to others. Then add up the targets and ask yourself if you think that is a reasonable number of attempts for Brady. Your answer will probably be no, then you have to redo the exercise.Hernandez had 2 targets week 1; in week 2, Moss and Welker were targeted less than normal due to the style of defense played by the Jets.

 

[flranger]

I have no inside information, just trusting my eyes here. Hernandez looks too good, and too quick not to continue getting more and more involved. He was actually targeted 7 times (not 6), but one didn't count as he drew a pass interference penalty. So 6 for 6, with a drawn pass interference (it was about 10 yard play, in coverage).

 

[That Little Voice]

Doesnt Buffalo have some really good corners? Seems like a decent weekend coming up to give Hernandez a shot on FF starting rosters.

 

[WFR]

Doesnt Buffalo have some really good corners? Seems like a decent weekend coming up to give Hernandez a shot on FF starting rosters.

I'm going to give him a start this weekend.

 

[That Little Voice]

Doesnt Buffalo have some really good corners? Seems like a decent weekend coming up to give Hernandez a shot on FF starting rosters.

I'm going to give him a start this weekend.

He's top 10 on the prelim PPR cheatsheet.

 

[Mr. Bojangles]

Week 2:

A. Hernandez 6 101

R. Gronkowski 1 14

Hernandez was the leading receiver for the Pats.

And Hernandez was targeted six times and made six catches, pretty imprsssive. I am playing Hernandez this week over Zach miller as I think his targets will be in the 6-10 range per week.

How many targets do you think will go to Moss and Welker; then how many targets will go Faulk/B.Tate. How many targets will go to others. Then add up the targets and ask yourself if you think that is a reasonable number of attempts for Brady. Your answer will probably be no, then you have to redo the exercise.Hernandez had 2 targets week 1; in week 2, Moss and Welker were targeted less than normal due to the style of defense played by the Jets.

Faulk is out for the year; Tate was targeted 1 time last week.

 

[mystykoekaki]

I got a window seat on the Hernandez express this week, the cost of the ticket was Zach Miller.

 

[TheFanatic]

I got a window seat on the Hernandez express this week, the cost of the ticket was Zach Miller.

Welcome aboard. I drafted the guy on my Survivor 10 squad and put him on my main league team that is a salary cap league so if he sucked I was going to have eat his salary. Then again, I also put Jimmy Graham on that team and that didn't turn out so well...

 

[That Little Voice]

Faulk is out for the year; Tate was targeted 1 time last week.

Hadnt thought about the KFaulk loss with respect to Hernandez. Things seem to really be lining up for Hernandez. Actually debating him vs Witten at this point for this week. But that seems to reek of wanting to show off my sleeper type of thing.WSIS?

 

[Mr. Bojangles]

Faulk is out for the year; Tate was targeted 1 time last week.

Hadnt thought about the KFaulk loss with respect to Hernandez. Things seem to really be lining up for Hernandez. Actually debating him vs Witten at this point for this week. But that seems to reek of wanting to show off my sleeper type of thing.WSIS?

Hmmmm. Ballsy to sit Witten for him. Not sure I could do that, but I feel less stress swapping out Zach Miller because I just think Hernandez has more upside with Brady than Miller does with either the Polish Cannon or Campbell.

 

[TheFanatic]

Faulk is out for the year; Tate was targeted 1 time last week.

Hadnt thought about the KFaulk loss with respect to Hernandez. Things seem to really be lining up for Hernandez. Actually debating him vs Witten at this point for this week. But that seems to reek of wanting to show off my sleeper type of thing.WSIS?

Hmmmm. Ballsy to sit Witten for him. Not sure I could do that, but I feel less stress swapping out Zach Miller because I just think Hernandez has more upside with Brady than Miller does with either the Polish Cannon or Campbell.

I'm sort of in the same boat. I'm not sure I would sit Witten for Hernandez, but maybe Winslow and Moeaki and Graham (yes I'm carrying 4 TE's. Picked up Moeaki off the WW after week 1). Sitting Witten for a rook with two games under his belt is a bold move. Why not? Go for it...

 

[That Little Voice]

Faulk is out for the year; Tate was targeted 1 time last week.

Hadnt thought about the KFaulk loss with respect to Hernandez. Things seem to really be lining up for Hernandez. Actually debating him vs Witten at this point for this week. But that seems to reek of wanting to show off my sleeper type of thing.WSIS?

Hmmmm. Ballsy to sit Witten for him. Not sure I could do that, but I feel less stress swapping out Zach Miller because I just think Hernandez has more upside with Brady than Miller does with either the Polish Cannon or Campbell.

I'm sort of in the same boat. I'm not sure I would sit Witten for Hernandez, but maybe Winslow and Moeaki and Graham (yes I'm carrying 4 TE's. Picked up Moeaki off the WW after week 1). Sitting Witten for a rook with two games under his belt is a bold move. Why not? Go for it...

Full disclosure i guess..I will have Witten in there. Wouldnt surprise me to see Hernandez with another nice week though. Im excited to own him.

 

[dmac37]

Can both of these guys produce or is it going to be one or the other? My point being if Hernandez puts up numbers is he taking WR numbers or TE numbers.

I'm getting the feeling that most early predictions are proving out to be correct, Gronkowski a complete TE better in NFL than FF and Hernandez putting up FF numbers.

 

[NHLumpa2]

I usually side with the bigger framed TE. I have drafted Hernandez, and am now maybe leaning Gronk. essentially we just need the season to start so its not all bs speculation.

I suspect that for anyone not named Moss or Welker, there roles and production will vary a lot week to week. If the Pats scheme to run one week, the RBs will get decent numbers. If they see mismatches in the middle of the field, the TEs may get a lot of looks. If teams want to double Moss, Edelman and Tate might get more targets.I doubt it will turn into Gronk only catches red zone TDs while Hernandez gets the ball consistently in the middle of the field. The real issue to me at this point is will NE actually turn to the TEs as much as they did in the preseason or will they go back to being mostly an afterthought like they've done the past few years.

I think Belichik has watched Dallas Clark the last few years and thought "I want one of those"The thin RB core bodes well for HBack type of service, and I bet we'll even see Hernandez take a few handoffs, albeit on "gimmick" plays.The dude is VERY fast and agile for his size. Seriously. Watch some footage of his moves after catch. Really. Go now. Watch. You'll say "wow".Boston talk radio made a big deal that Hernandez was getting "special" time w/ Brady.There is little reason for them to take out Hernandez just becuase Gronk is in at the goal line - he's their 3rd best WRIf they are gonna run it - 2 TE (well OK, maybe then they'd use Gronk and Crumpler. man that's a friggen load!)AndThey're not gonna run it.!There - you read it here. They'll have a vestigial running game in hopes of keeping coverage honest, but the Pats are once again a passing first (and second, and third) team.After all, you gotta be careful w/ antique RBs.

 

[tigerz]

Hmm, I picked up Hernandez to backup Witten and dropped Zach Miller. You have to like Brady throwing to him so the upside is definitely there and it's nice backup to have based on potential. If he's playing, I don't see how you can not start Witten against Houston though seeing how many points they have been giving up through the air. I would be very surprised if Hernandez didn't have a couple more big games down the stretch.

 

[whodeywhodey]

Hey guys --- who do you like more for 2010?

Hernandez or Marcedes Lewis? I think both of these guys are on the waiver wire in a lot of leagues.

 

[Jayrod]

Hmm, I picked up Hernandez to backup Witten and dropped Zach Miller. You have to like Brady throwing to him so the upside is definitely there and it's nice backup to have based on potential. If he's playing, I don't see how you can not start Witten against Houston though seeing how many points they have been giving up through the air. I would be very surprised if Hernandez didn't have a couple more big games down the stretch.

I think this is a mistake, but time will tell.

 

[Romofan]

Tony Gonzalez has been a complete bust for me so far (7targ 4 rec 54 yds in 2 games) - I'm picking up Hernandez and starting him....He looks SICK out there with some nice moves...I love how many YAC he gets.....

 

[whodeywhodey]

Hey guys --- who do you like more for 2010?Hernandez or Marcedes Lewis? I think both of these guys are on the waiver wire in a lot of leagues.

FYI - I am going after Hernandez in one of my leagues over Marcedes. I think he could have Gates (rookie season) or Finley (2009) like upside --- can't say the same about Marcedes.

 

[basher]

Marcedes looked really, really good against Denver. With that being said, I would put a little more faith in Brady then Garrard ... but only a little

 

[That Little Voice]

I usually side with the bigger framed TE. I have drafted Hernandez, and am now maybe leaning Gronk. essentially we just need the season to start so its not all bs speculation.

I suspect that for anyone not named Moss or Welker, there roles and production will vary a lot week to week. If the Pats scheme to run one week, the RBs will get decent numbers. If they see mismatches in the middle of the field, the TEs may get a lot of looks. If teams want to double Moss, Edelman and Tate might get more targets.I doubt it will turn into Gronk only catches red zone TDs while Hernandez gets the ball consistently in the middle of the field. The real issue to me at this point is will NE actually turn to the TEs as much as they did in the preseason or will they go back to being mostly an afterthought like they've done the past few years.

I think Belichik has watched Dallas Clark the last few years and thought "I want one of those"The thin RB core bodes well for HBack type of service, and I bet we'll even see Hernandez take a few handoffs, albeit on "gimmick" plays.The dude is VERY fast and agile for his size. Seriously. Watch some footage of his moves after catch. Really. Go now. Watch. You'll say "wow".Boston talk radio made a big deal that Hernandez was getting "special" time w/ Brady.There is little reason for them to take out Hernandez just becuase Gronk is in at the goal line - he's their 3rd best WRIf they are gonna run it - 2 TE (well OK, maybe then they'd use Gronk and Crumpler. man that's a friggen load!)AndThey're not gonna run it.!There - you read it here. They'll have a vestigial running game in hopes of keeping coverage honest, but the Pats are once again a passing first (and second, and third) team.After all, you gotta be careful w/ antique RBs.

:greatposting:Your post made my pants get tight.

 

[WFR]

Aaron Hernandez-TE-Patriots Sep. 23 - 9:40 am et

ESPN's Mike Reiss thinks Aaron Hernandez's playing time will increase now that Kevin Faulk (knee) is out for the season.

So far, Hernandez has played 67 of 123 offensive snaps. The rookie tight end is so versatile that he can line up detached from the formation or even in the backfield. Tom Brady is in the market for a third-down security blanket with Faulk down, and Hernandez's arrow is pointing up. He's a TE2 with upside.

Source: ESPN Boston

 

[ScoobyDoo]

Tony Gonzalez has been a complete bust for me so far (7targ 4 rec 54 yds in 2 games) - I'm picking up Hernandez and starting him....He looks SICK out there with some nice moves...I love how many YAC he gets.....

I did the same thing and I didn't even read this thread first. Glad to see someone else has the same thing cooking.

 

[H.K.]

Aaron Hernandez-TE-Patriots Sep. 23 - 9:40 am et

ESPN's Mike Reiss thinks Aaron Hernandez's playing time will increase now that Kevin Faulk (knee) is out for the season.

So far, Hernandez has played 67 of 123 offensive snaps. The rookie tight end is so versatile that he can line up detached from the formation or even in the backfield. Tom Brady is in the market for a third-down security blanket with Faulk down, and Hernandez's arrow is pointing up. He's a TE2 with upside.

Source: ESPN Boston

So....he could be Faulk's replacement in a literal sense....interesting.

 

[TheFanatic]

Hmm, I picked up Hernandez to backup Witten and dropped Zach Miller. You have to like Brady throwing to him so the upside is definitely there and it's nice backup to have based on potential. If he's playing, I don't see how you can not start Witten against Houston though seeing how many points they have been giving up through the air. I would be very surprised if Hernandez didn't have a couple more big games down the stretch.

I think this is a mistake, but time will tell.

Doesn't that sort of depend on which Miller we're talking about here?

 

[Easy Six]

Hmm, I picked up Hernandez to backup Witten and dropped Zach Miller. You have to like Brady throwing to him so the upside is definitely there and it's nice backup to have based on potential. If he's playing, I don't see how you can not start Witten against Houston though seeing how many points they have been giving up through the air. I would be very surprised if Hernandez didn't have a couple more big games down the stretch.

I think this is a mistake, but time will tell.

Doesn't that sort of depend on which Miller we're talking about here?

Is there more than one Zach Miller playing TE in the NFL? I feel like I'm missing something here.

 

[Mr. Bojangles]

Yes:

Zach Miller JAX; Zach Miller OAK.

 

[Easy Six]

Yes:Zach Miller JAX; Zach Miller OAK.

Fair enough. He's so far off my radar he didn't even cross my mind. If he's rostered, that would be an incredibly deep league.

 

[H.K.]

Aaron Hernandez-TE-Patriots Sep. 23 - 9:40 am et

ESPN's Mike Reiss thinks Aaron Hernandez's playing time will increase now that Kevin Faulk (knee) is out for the season.

So far, Hernandez has played 67 of 123 offensive snaps. The rookie tight end is so versatile that he can line up detached from the formation or even in the backfield. Tom Brady is in the market for a third-down security blanket with Faulk down, and Hernandez's arrow is pointing up. He's a TE2 with upside.

Source: ESPN Boston

So....he could be Faulk's replacement in a literal sense....interesting.

After two weeks Brady has thrown ~35 passes/game, and these are the average Targets Per Game so far:Moss - 9

Welker - 9

Other WR - 4

Faulk - 5

Other RB - 2

Hernandez - 4

Other TE - 2

So Faulk's recent injury vacates 5 targets a game....if those targets do still go to an "RB", can we expect Hernandez in the backfield a few times when that happens?

Also, if the Pats' depleted RB corps leads to more passing as already mentioned in this thread, that's more opportunities for Hernandez, too.

Furthermore, Moss and Welker are already drawing the focus and talent from the defense ....so how is the defense going to try and cover Aaron? He should be a real headache for defenses if they are trying to cover him with LB's (slower) or CB's (smaller) depending on where he is in the formation.

Are we looking at a consistent 7 or even 8 targets a game here?

 

[whodeywhodey]

I think we can safely assume 5-8 targets per game.

I cut Carlson and added Hernandez. ODaniels is now my backup.

So far my "wait on a TE" experiment/strategy hasn't worked.

 

[David Yudkin]

Aaron Hernandez-TE-Patriots Sep. 23 - 9:40 am et

ESPN's Mike Reiss thinks Aaron Hernandez's playing time will increase now that Kevin Faulk (knee) is out for the season.

So far, Hernandez has played 67 of 123 offensive snaps. The rookie tight end is so versatile that he can line up detached from the formation or even in the backfield. Tom Brady is in the market for a third-down security blanket with Faulk down, and Hernandez's arrow is pointing up. He's a TE2 with upside.

Source: ESPN Boston

So....he could be Faulk's replacement in a literal sense....interesting.

After two weeks Brady has thrown ~35 passes/game, and these are the average Targets Per Game so far:Moss - 9

Welker - 9

Other WR - 4

Faulk - 5

Other RB - 2

Hernandez - 4

Other TE - 2

So Faulk's recent injury vacates 5 targets a game....if those targets do still go to an "RB", can we expect Hernandez in the backfield a few times when that happens?

Also, if the Pats' depleted RB corps leads to more passing as already mentioned in this thread, that's more opportunities for Hernandez, too.

Furthermore, Moss and Welker are already drawing the focus and talent from the defense ....so how is the defense going to try and cover Aaron? He should be a real headache for defenses if they are trying to cover him with LB's (slower) or CB's (smaller) depending on where he is in the formation.

Are we looking at a consistent 7 or even 8 targets a game here?

The Pats were a tale of two completely different games. In one, they were ahead and had a balanced attack of passes and rushing attempts. In the other, they went way pass heavy, abandoned the run, and were playing catch up.I suspect that their approach will have to be more like the latter than the former, so they will be inclined to pass more. Bottom line, I suspect they will be closer to 40 passes a game than 30, so there will likely be more targets to go around.

While I do think Hernandez will get his share of targets, I would not be swayed by his numbers against the Jets. Remember, he caught 1 pass against the Bengals.

I would guess the Pats receiving targets not names Welker or Moss will vary greatly from week to week.

 

[tigerz]

Hmm, I picked up Hernandez to backup Witten and dropped Zach Miller. You have to like Brady throwing to him so the upside is definitely there and it's nice backup to have based on potential. If he's playing, I don't see how you can not start Witten against Houston though seeing how many points they have been giving up through the air. I would be very surprised if Hernandez didn't have a couple more big games down the stretch.

I think this is a mistake, but time will tell.

Doesn't that sort of depend on which Miller we're talking about here?

Is there more than one Zach Miller playing TE in the NFL? I feel like I'm missing something here.

The Zach Miller in Oakland. We have an incredibly deep waiver wire and unusually high scoring settings so I'm fine with gambling for upside. Spiller and Knox are on there right now and I picked up MSW this week. It's a money league too.