What's new
Fantasy Football - Footballguys Forums

This is a sample guest message. Register a free account today to become a member! Once signed in, you'll be able to participate on this site by adding your own topics and posts, as well as connect with other members through your own private inbox!

High Stakes Drafting - Trends and Other Useful Info (1 Viewer)

Rhythmdoctor

Rhythmdoctor

Footballguy
I just had my first high stakes draft last night.  The rt sports Fantasy Championship.  $200k grand prize.

FYI, roookie RBs are going early and often. I had the 5th pick overall where I took Julio Jones.  In the 3rd round I had Fournette queued up at 3.05... he went 3.04 so I took another WR (Allen Robinson).  In round 4, I was prepared to take McCaffrey at 4.08... he went at 4.06 so I took Olsen and Mixon went right after my pick and Cook went shortly after Mixon.

If you notice anything useful, mention it here.

 
Rhythmdoctor said:
I just had my first high stakes draft last night.  The rt sports Fantasy Championship.  $200k grand prize.

FYI, roookie RBs are going early and often. I had the 5th pick overall where I took Julio Jones.  In the 3rd round I had Fournette queued up at 3.05... he went 3.04 so I took another WR (Allen Robinson).  In round 4, I was prepared to take McCaffrey at 4.08... he went at 4.06 so I took Olsen and Mixon went right after my pick and Cook went shortly after Mixon.

If you notice anything useful, mention it here.
Click to expand...
I don't really get the rookie hype this year.  Must have to do with what Elliott did last year but he had a much better situation.

 
Rhythmdoctor said:
I just had my first high stakes draft last night.  The rt sports Fantasy Championship.  $200k grand prize.

FYI, roookie RBs are going early and often. I had the 5th pick overall where I took Julio Jones.  In the 3rd round I had Fournette queued up at 3.05... he went 3.04 so I took another WR (Allen Robinson).  In round 4, I was prepared to take McCaffrey at 4.08... he went at 4.06 so I took Olsen and Mixon went right after my pick and Cook went shortly after Mixon.

If you notice anything useful, mention it here.
Click to expand...
How late were QB's taken? Not the top tier of guys.... more like 5-15? Higher or lower than ADP?

 
BoltBacker said:
How late were QB's taken? Not the top tier of guys.... more like 5-15? Higher or lower than ADP?
Click to expand...
I really like waiting as long as possible and getting 2 or 3 guys in the teens that you can use in matchups by the week. Defenses in a similar way but obviously later.

 
Leroy Hoard said:
I really like waiting as long as possible and getting 2 or 3 guys in the teens that you can use in matchups by the week. Defenses in a similar way but obviously later.
Click to expand...
Just got roethlisberger in the 10th in FFPC and will likely pair him with tyrod or Palmer.

In deep leagues, waiting on qb is the only strategy.

 
Hawkeye21 said:
I don't really get the rookie hype this year.  Must have to do with what Elliott did last year but he had a much better situation.
Click to expand...
These rookies have been getting a lot of hype for 2 years and played at big time programs. The name value of Fournette, McCaffrey and Cook is pretty high. Also, there is opportunity on all those team. That and as you said, people have Zeke fresh in mind.  

 
Agree that most of the top rookie RBs are going too high, Mixon is the only one of the bunch I may take a shot with.

interestingly enough, players like Hunt and Perine are going too low.

 
Rhythmdoctor said:
I'll check when I'm back home. I took Rodgers in the 2nd and got Cam as my backup after all my starters were filled. So Cam, Ryan, Roeth... all round 9+
Click to expand...
QBs:

Round 2 - Rodgers

Round 3 - Brees

Round 4 - Brady

Round 7 - Wilson

Round 8 - Luck, Ryan

Round 9 - Newton

Round 10 - Roethlisberger, Cousins

Round 11 - Mariota, Carr, Winston, Prescott

Round 12 - Tyrod Taylor

Round 13 - Rivers, Manning, Stafford

Round 15 - Tanehill, Palmer, Dalton, Wentz

 
Rhythmdoctor said:
QBs:

Round 2 - Rodgers

Round 3 - Brees

Round 4 - Brady

Round 7 - Wilson

Round 8 - Luck, Ryan

Round 9 - Newton

Round 10 - Roethlisberger, Cousins

Round 11 - Mariota, Carr, Winston, Prescott

Round 12 - Tyrod Taylor

Round 13 - Rivers, Manning, Stafford

Round 15 - Tanehill, Palmer, Dalton, Wentz
Click to expand...
Tyrod going ahead of Stafford and Rivers doesn't seem right. 

 
Leroy Hoard said:
I really like waiting as long as possible and getting 2 or 3 guys in the teens that you can use in matchups by the week. Defenses in a similar way but obviously later.
Click to expand...
That's usually my goal as well, although I often find myself being the Aaron Rodgers police in terms of ADP. To me he's just so far head and shoulders above the next group of QB's imo it's tough to let him slip. Which is why I am always interested to see where those middle-range-QB's actually fall.

Do you have a favorite 3rd QB that you tend to target in the teens? I kind of liked Smith/Flacco/Bradford in the spring but have soured on each of them as we get closer to the season for different reasons.

 
Rhythmdoctor said:
QBs:

Round 2 - Rodgers

Round 3 - Brees

Round 4 - Brady

Round 7 - Wilson

Round 8 - Luck, Ryan

Round 9 - Newton

Round 10 - Roethlisberger, Cousins

Round 11 - Mariota, Carr, Winston, Prescott

Round 12 - Tyrod Taylor

Round 13 - Rivers, Manning, Stafford

Round 15 - Tanehill, Palmer, Dalton, Wentz
Click to expand...
Wow, as someone that has taken Rodgers more than a few times myself, I'd feel a bit gutted if I could have had some 3QB combination of Cousins/Winston/Taylor/Rivers/Dalton all drafted after the 10th round. While I don't play in high stakes leagues I almost never see those guys fall that far.  I assume that's a 12 team league, right? I almost never see those guys drop that far in 12 teamers.

 
TripItUp said:
Agree that most of the top rookie RBs are going too high, Mixon is the only one of the bunch I may take a shot with.

interestingly enough, players like Hunt and Perine are going too low.
Click to expand...
I assume that's because you think both Hunt and Perine can win those jobs outright at some point this season? I'm less sold on those guys at their ADP. I have a tough time buying in to any of the rookie RB's that get drafted in the first 100 picks.

In deep leagues I can live with the boom/bust potential of guys like Kamara(who I NEVER see drafted at his actual ADP), Conner, McNichols, and Pumphery.   Although all the late guys I mentioned are tougher to take in draft-and-go formats where they eat up a roster spot all year even if they do bust.

 
BoltBacker said:
I assume that's because you think both Hunt and Perine can win those jobs outright at some point this season? I'm less sold on those guys at their ADP. I have a tough time buying in to any of the rookie RB's that get drafted in the first 100 picks.

In deep leagues I can live with the boom/bust potential of guys like Kamara(who I NEVER see drafted at his actual ADP), Conner, McNichols, and Pumphery.   Although all the late guys I mentioned are tougher to take in draft-and-go formats where they eat up a roster spot all year even if they do bust.
Click to expand...
Yeah, right now I'm mostly drafting in deep, high dollar leagues. 

I do believe Perine and Hunt have more ability than Kelly and Ware, but it's hard to know how long it will take for them to win the starting jobs.  

 
Hawkeye21 said:
I don't really get the rookie hype this year.  Must have to do with what Elliott did last year but he had a much better situation.
Click to expand...
It is really a every year thing, we always hype rookies, its what we do. We just try to forget about it because most rookies do not do what Zeke did. 

Cook, Howard, Fournette, Mixon, McCaffery and Davis all have a chance to make an obvious impact so I dont think its wrong to hype them. Just try to manage how much hype you do give, right? Its what i tell myself. 

 
Hawkeye21 said:
Tyrod going ahead of Stafford and Rivers doesn't seem right. 
Click to expand...
Depends on scoring system but in normal 1 per 25 yards passing leagues, Tyrod Taylor was QB7 last year through 16 weeks (he sat out W17). 

Stafford was QB11 and Rivers QB13.

The 580 rushing yards and 6 Rushing TDs he put up last year gave him a big fantasy edge on Stafford and Rivers. 

 
Dan Hindery said:
Depends on scoring system but in normal 1 per 25 yards passing leagues, Tyrod Taylor was QB7 last year through 16 weeks (he sat out W17). 

Stafford was QB11 and Rivers QB13.

The 580 rushing yards and 6 Rushing TDs he put up last year gave him a big fantasy edge on Stafford and Rivers. 
Click to expand...
His legs are a factor, no dispute...but just a reminder, that was last year with a different HC and front office.  

 
Mavis said:
His legs are a factor, no dispute...but just a reminder, that was last year with a different HC and front office.  
Click to expand...
I don't see how the front office plays into things, unless you think they're going to throw 5th rounder Nathan Peterman in there as a rookie for some reason. From a dynasty perspective, I do think Taylor is in a tenuous position. But this is his team in 2017. 

Different HC does potentially change things I guess, but hard to see it hurting Taylor's numbers. The Bills were dead last in passing attempts last year, so nowhere to go but up for Taylor in that regard. The fact he finished QB7 while throwing less than 30 times per game maybe makes his 2016 even more impressive. Add in the potential for a healthy Sammy Watkins and I don't think him repeating his numbers from last year is unrealistic. 

Going back to the Taylor-Rivers comparison, over the past two season Taylor has 1100 more rushing yards and 10 more rushing TDs than Rivers. 550 rushing and 5 TDs per season is an extra 85 fantasy points for Taylor. Or the equivalent of throwing 21 more passing TDs. 

 
BoltBacker said:
Wow, as someone that has taken Rodgers more than a few times myself, I'd feel a bit gutted if I could have had some 3QB combination of Cousins/Winston/Taylor/Rivers/Dalton all drafted after the 10th round. While I don't play in high stakes leagues I almost never see those guys fall that far.  I assume that's a 12 team league, right? I almost never see those guys drop that far in 12 teamers.
Click to expand...
This being a high-stakes thread, I can respond to this statement because I've already drafted about 10-12 FPC or comparable online championship leagues this year. In these leagues, with the exception of Winston, these QBs almost ALWAYS get drafted in round 10 or after. In the last FPC I did, 7 QBs went in round 10 - Luck, Wilson, Ryan, Winston, Mariota & Dak and only the big 3 earlier than that. I constantly see this in FPC leagues. I'm in a $500 slow right now and through 5 rounds Rodgers is the only QB drafted. NFFC is a bit different because of 6 point tds for QBs. In the last NFFC online championship I did, the QBs available in round 10 or after were Stafford, Rivers, Dak, Dalton, Manning, Taylor, Palmer.

This trend is no longer a trend. I've seen more and more players push off QB. It gets even more extreme in the largest high-stakes entry fee leagues in Vegas. Over the past 4-5 years in these leagues, I've often thought about when a guy like Brady this year is definitely the best player on the board in light of all the QBs available. Some guys will make that decision on ADP, some on the "numbers", and some on draft strategy. To me, it depends on my team construction in the particular draft I'm doing.

 
Last edited by a moderator:
Dan Hindery said:
Depends on scoring system but in normal 1 per 25 yards passing leagues, Tyrod Taylor was QB7 last year through 16 weeks (he sat out W17). 

Stafford was QB11 and Rivers QB13.

The 580 rushing yards and 6 Rushing TDs he put up last year gave him a big fantasy edge on Stafford and Rivers. 
Click to expand...
I was just curious, what was the QB passing TD vs running TD vs INT/FumL scoring in that league?

In any league where passing TD's are worth less than running TD and turnovers are a big negative score(although I've never seen a league where turnovers counted as much against you as they should) then I wouldn't be surprised at all if Tyrod Taylor was better than Rivers. 

 
BoltBacker said:
I was just curious, what was the QB passing TD vs running TD vs INT/FumL scoring in that league?

In any league where passing TD's are worth less than running TD and turnovers are a big negative score(although I've never seen a league where turnovers counted as much against you as they should) then I wouldn't be surprised at all if Tyrod Taylor was better than Rivers. 
Click to expand...
.05 per passing yard

6 pt. rushing TD, 4 pt passing TD

-1 pt. INT, -2 PT Fumble

Edit to add: Worth noting that FFPC has scoring that is more favorable to passing QBs (.04 per passing yard). 

In 2016 FFPC scoring, Rivers scored 314, Stafford 311, Tyrod 307. They each finished as low-end QB1s.

Even in this format, I think you can make the argument for any of the three and they probably all belong in the same tier. Might come down to whose supporting cast can stay healthiest (Sammy Watkins, Keenan Allen, Mike Williams already questionable, Taylor Decker injury hurts in Detroit).

 
Last edited by a moderator:
Rhythmdoctor said:
I just had my first high stakes draft last night.  The rt sports Fantasy Championship.  $200k grand prize.

FYI, roookie RBs are going early and often. I had the 5th pick overall where I took Julio Jones.  In the 3rd round I had Fournette queued up at 3.05... he went 3.04 so I took another WR (Allen Robinson).  In round 4, I was prepared to take McCaffrey at 4.08... he went at 4.06 so I took Olsen and Mixon went right after my pick and Cook went shortly after Mixon.

If you notice anything useful, mention it here.
Click to expand...
I had another high stakes draft last night and the rookies went even sooner!

Fournette 2.10

McCaffrey 3.04

Cook 4.12

Mixon 5.01

I drafted Gronk at 2.12 (after Fournette) and came back with Rodgers at 3.01.  Obviously, that's me who took Cook, Mixon back-to-back. I took David Johnson at 1.01.

 
Rhythmdoctor said:
I had another high stakes draft last night and the rookies went even sooner!

Fournette 2.10

McCaffrey 3.04

Cook 4.12

Mixon 5.01

I drafted Gronk at 2.12 (after Fournette) and came back with Rodgers at 3.01.  Obviously, that's me who took Cook, Mixon back-to-back. I took David Johnson at 1.01.
Click to expand...
Preying for you that this isn't PPR.  Even in standard though, you will have NO WR'S until 6.12??

 
This thread sorta died.... I'm starting my 8th high stakes draft in about 10 minutes.  Got the 2 pick.  Will update thread afterwards. Definitely going DJ or Bell in that order.

 
Not that anyone cares, but I just got a little crazy.  My first 5 rounds:  L. Bell, Gronk, D. Cook, G. Olsen, J. Reed

I guess I just stared my own trend.

 
SameSongNDance said:
I'm assuming it's ffpc where TEs are 1.5PPR and you can flex 2 of them.

TEs aside, in the 2 spot where that draft happened I find myself taking Cook as my RB2 to pair with Bell frequently and feel good about it. 
Click to expand...
I tend to think it's not FFPC. Maybe he stumbled in a league that does not value TE but Gronk at 2/3 turn, Olsen/Reed at 4/5 turn seems a little to good to be true in FFPC.

 
It's not FFPC, its the rtsports Fantasy Championship. TEs get 1 ppr. I certainly didn't plan on drafting 3 TEs but I sure do like this team. Its dual flex so I will be starting all 3. 

 
Rhythmdoctor said:
It's not FFPC, its the rtsports Fantasy Championship. TEs get 1 ppr. I certainly didn't plan on drafting 3 TEs but I sure do like this team. Its dual flex so I will be starting all 3. 
Click to expand...
If you don't mind my asking- what are the starting lineup rosrter requirements for this league? Is it 1,2, or 3 wr's? 

 
Hawkeye21 said:
I'm assuming the entry fee is a decent amount an you're in 8 of these leagues?  That's a lot of cash invested in fantasy football.
Click to expand...
What my wife doesn't know won't hurt her!  I'm in 7 of the rtsports at $250 per (3 for $700). Then 1 Footballguys FFPC at $350.  It ain't cheap! 

So $2k invested so far not including dynasty and other local leagues. 

 
Last edited by a moderator:
Rhythmdoctor said:
What my wife doesn't know won't hurt her!  I'm in 7 of the rtsports at $250 per (3 for $700). Then 1 Footballguys FFPC at $350.  It ain't cheap! 

So $2k invested so far not including dynasty and other local leagues. 
Click to expand...
Nice!  I couldn't put myself through that kind of stress.  I stress out enough with my $130 league. LOL

 
Hawkeye21 said:
Nice!  I couldn't put myself through that kind of stress.  I stress out enough with my $130 league. LOL
Click to expand...
I'll probably do another 3 high stakes plus my local leagues are $200 per. So I'll be over $3k when it's all said and done and that doesn't include FanDuel!

 
Hawkeye21 said:
I'm assuming the entry fee is a decent amount an you're in 8 of these leagues?  That's a lot of cash invested in fantasy football.
Click to expand...
You have no idea. LOL

I saw today that the guy who won FFPC's main event has 40, yes 40, entries in the FFPC main event. That is $60,000 right there.

 
Last edited by a moderator:
You must log in or register to reply here.

Similar threads

Hot Sauce Guy
What is the strangest draft strategy you’ve ever seen?
2
Replies
51
Views
3K
Rubi
R
Biabreakable
Eliminating the suck SP version 2021
2
Replies
55
Views
4K
Faust
Faust
Rhythmdoctor
Grade my High Stakes Team - 1st draft of the year
Replies
19
Views
800
stlrams
S

Users who are viewing this thread

Total: 1 (members: 0, guests: 1)
Back
Top