History says the Saints won't win the Super Bowl (1 Viewer)

[Wheelhouse]

Only 6 times since 1980 has the NFL coach of the year also won the Super Bowl in the same year. That's 6 in 26 years or 23%

23% chance the Saints win the Super Bowl this year

28.5% chance the Saints win the Super Bowl according to Vegas odds

26% chance - 7 times in the last 26 years the Super Bowl winner led the NFL in points scored

30% chance - 8 times in the last 26 years the Super Bowl winner led the NFL in fewest points allowed

Well that's not so bad, so why are the Saints not going to win the big game you ask?

Since 1980, no Super Bowl champion also led the NFL in passing yards that year. Sorry Drew Brees.

Below is the breakdown of coach of the year as well as most passing yards

Year 	NFL Coach			  Team					 SB Winner	 Most passing yards2006	Sean Payton			New Orleans Saints	   ?			 NO2005 	Lovie Smith			Chicago Bears			PIT		   NE2004 	Marty Schottenheimer   San Diego Chargers	   NE			MIN2003 	Bill Belichick		 New England Patriots	 NE*		   IND2002 	Andy Reid			  Philadelphia Eagles	  TB			OAK2001 	**** Jauron			Chicago Bears			NE			STL2000 	Jim Haslett			New Orleans Saints	   BAL		   IND1999 	**** Vermeil		   St. Louis Rams		   STL*		  CAR1998 	Dan Reeves			 Atlanta Falcons		  DEN		   GB1997 	Jim Fassel			 New York Giants		  DEN		   OAK1996 	Dom Capers			 Carolina Panthers		GB			JAC1995 	Ray Rhodes			 Philadelphia Eagles	  DAL		   GB1994 	Bill Parcells		  New England Patriots	 SF			NE1993 	Dan Reeves			 New York Giants		  DAL		   DEN1992 	Bill Cowher			Pittsburgh Steelers	  DAL		   MIA1991 	Wayne Fontes		   Detroit Lions			WAS		   HOU/TEN1990 	Jimmy Johnson		  Dallas Cowboys		   NYG		   HOU/TEN1989 	Lindy Infante		  Green Bay Packers		SF			GB1988 	Mike Ditka			 Chicago Bears			SF			MIA1987 	Jim Mora			   New Orleans Saints	   WAS		   STL/ARI1986 	Bill Parcells		  New York Giants		  NYG*		  MIA1985 	Mike Ditka			 Chicago Bears			CHI*		  MIA1984 	Chuck Knox			 Seattle Seahawks		 SF			MIA1983 	Joe Gibbs			  Washington Redskins	  LAR		   GB1982 	Joe Gibbs			  Washington Redskins	  WAS*		  SD1981 	Bill Walsh			 San Francisco 49ers	  SF*		   SD1980 	Chuck Knox			 Buffalo Bills			OAK		   SD

 

[guderian]

Only 6 times since 1980 has the NFL coach of the year also won the Super Bowl in the same year. That's 6 in 26 years or 23%

I'd say that the strength of the AFC would indicate that the Saints are unlikely to win the Superbowl. With respect to the above stat, you said that the coach of the year has a 23% chance of winning the Superbowl. Well there are 32 teams in the NFL, so the odds of winning the Superbowl are about 3%. So winning the coach of the year improves your chance by about 8x, no?

 

[hobbes4]

I will just assume you are glossing over the research poured into your conclusion that the Saints will MAKE the Super Bowl. Just getting there will be unimaginable.

 

[Wheelhouse]

7 times in the last 26 years (since 1980) has the team that scored the most points won the Super Bowl in the same year. 1999, 1997, 1996, 1994, 1991, 1989, 1985

Year 	NFL Coach			  Team					 SB Winner	 Most passing yards  Most Pts scored2006	Sean Payton			New Orleans Saints	   ?			 NO				  SD2005 	Lovie Smith			Chicago Bears			PIT		   NE				  SEA2004 	Marty Schottenheimer   San Diego Chargers	   NE			MIN				 IND2003 	Bill Belichick		 New England Patriots	 NE*		   IND				 KC2002 	Andy Reid			  Philadelphia Eagles	  TB			OAK				 KC2001 	**** Jauron			Chicago Bears			NE			STL				 STL2000 	Jim Haslett			New Orleans Saints	   BAL		   IND				 STL1999 	**** Vermeil		   St. Louis Rams		   STL*		  CAR				 STL1998 	Dan Reeves			 Atlanta Falcons		  DEN		   GB				  MIN1997 	Jim Fassel			 New York Giants		  DEN		   OAK				 DEN1996 	Dom Capers			 Carolina Panthers		GB			JAC				 GB1995 	Ray Rhodes			 Philadelphia Eagles	  DAL		   GB				  SF1994 	Bill Parcells		  New England Patriots	 SF			NE				  SF1993 	Dan Reeves			 New York Giants		  DAL		   DEN				 SF1992 	Bill Cowher			Pittsburgh Steelers	  DAL		   MIA				 SF1991 	Wayne Fontes		   Detroit Lions			WAS		   HOU/TEN			 WAS1990 	Jimmy Johnson		  Dallas Cowboys		   NYG		   HOU/TEN			 BUF1989 	Lindy Infante		  Green Bay Packers		SF			GB				  SF1988 	Mike Ditka			 Chicago Bears			SF			MIA				 CIN1987 	Jim Mora			   New Orleans Saints	   WAS		   STL/ARI			 SF1986 	Bill Parcells		  New York Giants		  NYG*		  MIA				 NE1985 	Mike Ditka			 Chicago Bears			CHI*		  MIA				 CHI1984 	Chuck Knox			 Seattle Seahawks		 SF			MIA				 MIA1983 	Joe Gibbs			  Washington Redskins	  LAR		   GB				  WAS1982 	Joe Gibbs			  Washington Redskins	  WAS*		  SD				  SD1981 	Bill Walsh			 San Francisco 49ers	  SF*		   SD				  SD1980 	Chuck Knox			 Buffalo Bills			OAK		   SD				  DAL

 

[Wheelhouse]

8 times in the last 26 years the Super Bowl winner led the NFL in fewest points allowed

2003 NE

2002 TB

2000 BAL

1996 GB

1990 NYG

1985 CHI

1984 SF

1982 WAS

 

[Pygmy Marmoset]

so... you think that streak will continue indefinitely? Or you think that being the coach of the year or leading the league in passing yardage is inherently the sort of thing that keeps you from winning the Super Bowl? I think I'm missing the point of the thread. History says it hasn't happened in a long time. I don't think that means anything prediction-wise unless there's some sort of causal link.

 

[PahtyTom]

no team has ever won the super bowl giving up 5.5 yards per rush

 

[GRIDIRON ASSASSIN]

Couple in the fact that Sean Payton has to COACH in the Super Bowl - and the odds are diminished even more.

BEARS!

 

[parasaurolophus]

The saints have won the super bowl 0% of the time. Therefore they will not win the super Bowl this year. I feel really confident about this prediction. Except I was wrong in 2000,2001,2002. And I was wrong last year when I said that Jerome bettis would never win a Super Bowl because he had won it 0% of the times he had been there before. But this time I am right!!!

My logic is undeniable.

 

[Snotbubbles]

With respect to the above stat, you said that the coach of the year has a 23% chance of winning the Superbowl. Well there are 32 teams in the NFL, so the odds of winning the Superbowl are about 3%. So winning the coach of the year improves your chance by about 8x, no?

So by your logic then NOT winning the coach of the year (20/26) would give you a 77% chance of winning the Superbowl. Whats that like a 26x improvement on your chances?

 

[simey]

I look forward to the Saints changing history.

 

[Sidewinder]

no team has ever won the super bowl giving up 5.5 yards per rush

5.5 ypc ? NE 3.88 yd/carryChic 3.96 yd/carryNO 4.93 yd/carryIndy 5.33 yd/carry

 

[guderian]

With respect to the above stat, you said that the coach of the year has a 23% chance of winning the Superbowl. Well there are 32 teams in the NFL, so the odds of winning the Superbowl are about 3%. So winning the coach of the year improves your chance by about 8x, no?

So by your logic then NOT winning the coach of the year (20/26) would give you a 77% chance of winning the Superbowl. Whats that like a 26x improvement on your chances?

No, because you'd be 1 of 31 other teams in the same situation. 97% of teams don't have the coach of the year and they've won 77% of the Superbowls. Coach of the year teams=3% of teams winning 23% of SuperbowlsNon-coach of the year teams=97% of teams winning 77% of Superbowls

 

[PatsFan72]

Let's not forget the fact that no QB has ever won the Super Bowl that also had the protruding remains of their conjoined twin on their face.

I'm just saying . . .

 

[parasaurolophus]

With respect to the above stat, you said that the coach of the year has a 23% chance of winning the Superbowl. Well there are 32 teams in the NFL, so the odds of winning the Superbowl are about 3%. So winning the coach of the year improves your chance by about 8x, no?

So by your logic then NOT winning the coach of the year (20/26) would give you a 77% chance of winning the Superbowl. Whats that like a 26x improvement on your chances?

No, because you'd be 1 of 31 other teams in the same situation. 97% of teams don't have the coach of the year and they've won 77% of the Superbowls. Coach of the year teams=3% of teams winning 23% of SuperbowlsNon-coach of the year teams=97% of teams winning 77% of Superbowls

its almost too easy.

 

[jchap31]

History also dictated that no team with 13 losses in the previous season ever made it to the Conference Championship game the following season. I think the Saints have proven themselves over and over again this year to football fans to not read too much into history. People seem to forget that there's a first time for everything.

 

[culdeus]

no team has ever won the super bowl giving up 5.5 yards per rush

5.5 ypc ? NE 3.88 yd/carryChic 3.96 yd/carryNO 4.93 yd/carryIndy 5.33 yd/carry

What's your point?

 

[Sidewinder]

no team has ever won the super bowl giving up 5.5 yards per rush

5.5 ypc ? NE 3.88 yd/carryChic 3.96 yd/carryNO 4.93 yd/carryIndy 5.33 yd/carry

What's your point?

Maybe you should ask the OP what his point was.

 

[Snotbubbles]

No, because you'd be 1 of 31 other teams in the same situation. 97% of teams don't have the coach of the year and they've won 77% of the Superbowls. Coach of the year teams=3% of teams winning 23% of SuperbowlsNon-coach of the year teams=97% of teams winning 77% of Superbowls

Ok. I see the math. But now there aren't 31 teams left, there are 3. so really the Saints still have the 23% chance (which will remain constant). And the other 3 have the 77% chance which comes out to roughly a 26% chance if you don't have coach of the year. If the Saints win this week and make it to the Superbowl, they'll still only have the 23% chance. While the other team will have a 77% chance.

 

[kupcho1]

Fact: The Wheelhouse fun facts reception in the Shark Pool deteriorates greatly in the post-season.

 

[PsychoMan]

So there's 4 teams left in the playoffs, and the Saints have about a 1 in 4 chance of winning the Super Bowl ... hmmm

 

[redman]

Fact: The Wheelhouse fun facts reception in the Shark Pool deteriorates greatly in the post-season.

 

[guderian]

No, because you'd be 1 of 31 other teams in the same situation. 97% of teams don't have the coach of the year and they've won 77% of the Superbowls. Coach of the year teams=3% of teams winning 23% of SuperbowlsNon-coach of the year teams=97% of teams winning 77% of Superbowls

Ok. I see the math. But now there aren't 31 teams left, there are 3. so really the Saints still have the 23% chance (which will remain constant). And the other 3 have the 77% chance which comes out to roughly a 26% chance if you don't have coach of the year. If the Saints win this week and make it to the Superbowl, they'll still only have the 23% chance. While the other team will have a 77% chance.

Since there are only 4 teams left, Wheelhouse would need to re-run the stats to find out the odds of a coach of the year team that makes a championship game making it to the Superbowl.

 

[Snotbubbles]

Since there are only 4 teams left, Wheelhouse would need to re-run the stats to find out the odds of a coach of the year team that makes a championship game making it to the Superbowl.

Obviously I'm not a math guy. I just ran the numbers. 12 times the Coach of the Year made it to the Championship game. 6 times they've won the Superbowl (only twice since Free Agency started). 50-50 chance the Saints will win the Superbowl.

 

[Pygmy Marmoset]

No, because you'd be 1 of 31 other teams in the same situation. 97% of teams don't have the coach of the year and they've won 77% of the Superbowls. Coach of the year teams=3% of teams winning 23% of SuperbowlsNon-coach of the year teams=97% of teams winning 77% of Superbowls

Ok. I see the math. But now there aren't 31 teams left, there are 3. so really the Saints still have the 23% chance (which will remain constant). And the other 3 have the 77% chance which comes out to roughly a 26% chance if you don't have coach of the year. If the Saints win this week and make it to the Superbowl, they'll still only have the 23% chance. While the other team will have a 77% chance.

Since there are only 4 teams left, Wheelhouse would need to re-run the stats to find out the odds of a coach of the year team that makes a championship game making it to the Superbowl.

Now, I may be wrong, but these are the stats I’m coming up with for Coach of the Year in the Conference Championship:

Coach of the Year in CC2003 – Belichick *2002 – Reid1999 – Vermeil *1998 – Reeves +1996 – Capers1991 – Fontes1988 – Ditka1986 – Parcells *1985 – Ditka *1983 – Gibbs +1982 – Gibbs *1981 – Walsh *All the *s are coaches who won the Super BowlAll the +s are coaches who lost in the Super Bowl, but made it there.

So, coaches who win Coach of the Year since 1980 and make it to the Conference Championship are 12 in number. 6 of those won the Super Bowl, while 8 at least went there.50% win the Super Bowl, 66.6% win the Conference.

 

[guderian]

Since there are only 4 teams left, Wheelhouse would need to re-run the stats to find out the odds of a coach of the year team that makes a championship game making it to the Superbowl.

Obviously I'm not a math guy. I just ran the numbers. 12 times the Coach of the Year made it to the Championship game. 6 times they've won the Superbowl (only twice since Free Agency started). 50-50 chance the Saints will win the Superbowl.

Interesting. I didn't think it would be that high. Too bad we still have the Bears and AFC to deal with.

 

[Pygmy Marmoset]

Also, if I'm reading this right, only two Coaches of the Year had teams with the most passing yards during this period of time - NE in 94 and GB in 89, and neither made the CC. Doesn't seem like much of a history there.

 

[PahtyTom]

no team has ever won the super bowl giving up 5.5 yards per rush

5.5 ypc ? NE 3.88 yd/carryChic 3.96 yd/carryNO 4.93 yd/carryIndy 5.33 yd/carry

What's your point?

Maybe you should ask the OP what his point was.

I was obvliously talking about Ind who was at 5.5 entering the playoffs and is now the odds on favorite to win the Super Bowl. Sorry for the confusion.

 

[AB in DC]

28.5% chance the Saints win the Super Bowl according to Vegas odds

Where on earth did this one come from? If they were even money to win each game remaining, that would still give them only a 25% chance. But they'll be underdogs in both.

 

[*****]

Anyone know what the pre-season odds were for the Saints to win the SB?

 

[TwinTurbo]

Let's not forget the fact that no QB has ever won the Super Bowl that also had the protruding remains of their conjoined twin on their face.I'm just saying . . .

"Here's a quarter. Go downtown, and have a rat gnaw that thing off your face!" - Uncle Buck.

 

[Wheelhouse]

28.5% chance the Saints win the Super Bowl according to Vegas odds

Where on earth did this one come from? If they were even money to win each game remaining, that would still give them only a 25% chance. But they'll be underdogs in both.

28.5% came from 7 to 2 odds.