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Hoopsguys - FBG ventures into NBA DFS (1 Viewer)

as always i feel very panicked as lock approaches. not sure i did the right thing.  dont like switching things up so much last minute, never a good feeling. we'll see how it goes.

 
sooted72 said:
man i can already tell im gonna regret rostering rwb.  ugh.  why do i freak out last minute.  also morris wtf?
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Settle down, Beavis. As long as the game stays close, the odds of him having a huge quarter increase significantly. I don't see Atlanta having anyone who can stay with him when he goes into ruthless attack mode. 

 
BassNBrew said:
Here are my IVC value play contrarian plays of the night

PG Harrison 19.8 (20.3), Canaan 15.4 (18.8)

SG D. Green 18 (6.7), Batum 32.1 (39.1)

SF Porter 29.5 (31.8), Dekker 16.4 (9.8), Joe Johnson 14.4 

PF Ilyasova 23 (32.6), Kanter 21.1 (13.9)

C: Gortat 31.2
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5 up, 3 down thus far

 
FBG value plays, top two by position

Frazier 32 - 28.3  :thumbdown:

Grant 22.7 - 11.1  :thumbdown:

Rodriguez 24.5 - 35.3  :thumbup:

Galloway 21.7 - 29.9  :thumbup:

Stauakus 20.4 - 14.1  :thumbdown:

Ellis 26.1 - 14.2  :thumbdown:

Hill 21.1 - 23.9  :thumbup:

Ingram 23.2 - 10.4  :thumbdown:

Crowder 28.6 - 22.1  :thumbdown:

Morris 29.4 - 29.5

Nance Jr 22.2 - 0  :thumbdown:

Aldridge 33.6 - 40.3  :thumbup:

Capella 32.2 - 26.1  :thumbdown:

Zeller 26.6 - 14.9  :thumbdown:

Val 29.6 - 17.5  :thumbdown:

4 hits, 10 misses, one push for FBG

Would one of the 15 paid experts please chime in as to why the projections are consistently poor and what you are doing to fix it?

 
LOL

When will I learn, the 2 $10 100 player leagues I played treating like cash games I finished 98th and 94 :excited:   At least I'm consistent

$20 cash in

$43 GPPs in

$0.00 out

The good news, there's more NBA games tonight :lmao:

The NBA needs to send a big Thank You card to the NFL

Won $60 on my Sun-Mon NFL GPPs, a ticket to the Sunday Million and $300 on my 2 Thur-Mon Cash LUs that finished at 159.86 and 147.84

 
But there was a ton of risk in those plays, which was obvious before tip-off. You consistently ignore risk in your assessment, which is a fatal choice on your part. A player with a range of 10-50 is going to result in the same static projection as a player with a range of 20-40. If you don't care enough to try to identify that difference then you bear some of the fault.

Everyone wants a fixed number and the mindless simplicity of the IVC, but that's not how real daily (NBA and MLB at least) work. I'll bet dollars to doughnuts Knotts's algorithm produces a standard deviation for each player each day. But I'll also bet dollars to doughnuts that if he published a spreadsheet with that range that required users to make their own calls on building their lineups people would complain b/c they wouldn't have the IVC to blindly use. They tried that stuff with their App for the NFL (which was fantastic BTW), but no one wanted to use it.

 
Crazy night last night. I'm starting to come around to the notion that using big-ticket players on huge slates is something that you should strongly consider avoiding. When $200/pt won't sniff cashing, it's really tough for a $12,000 player to be helpful in these big slates. 

 
Tennessee_ATO said:
Crazy night last night. I'm starting to come around to the notion that using big-ticket players on huge slates is something that you should strongly consider avoiding. When $200/pt won't sniff cashing, it's really tough for a $12,000 player to be helpful in these big slates. 
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I would like to hear more about this.  Last night it was all about Klay Thompson who generally is a low standard deviation guy.

 
Tennessee_ATO said:
But there was a ton of risk in those plays, which was obvious before tip-off. You consistently ignore risk in your assessment, which is a fatal choice on your part. A player with a range of 10-50 is going to result in the same static projection as a player with a range of 20-40. If you don't care enough to try to identify that difference then you bear some of the fault.

Everyone wants a fixed number and the mindless simplicity of the IVC, but that's not how real daily (NBA and MLB at least) work. I'll bet dollars to doughnuts Knotts's algorithm produces a standard deviation for each player each day. But I'll also bet dollars to doughnuts that if he published a spreadsheet with that range that required users to make their own calls on building their lineups people would complain b/c they wouldn't have the IVC to blindly use. They tried that stuff with their App for the NFL (which was fantastic BTW), but no one wanted to use it.
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1. I'm working on a theory here.  The premise is that the projections here are bad, so the best way to be successful is to use the players they don't project to do well.  Last night it was Nance, Grant, Ellis, Zeller in the role of lineup killers.  As documented, it's been a couple of weeks of calls like this.  Whatever model is being used to project players is failing.  Bottom line, my risky calls were more successful than the calls the pros made, at least for one night.

2. If the IVC doesn't work, then they shouldn't be publishing it.  They also penned an article how the IVC was a must use tool to be successful.

3. I understand what you are saying about standard deviations.  The fact is that after after a couple of weeks of tracking these projections, we should start to see an equal number of picks exceeding the projections as failing to reach it.

4. 10-50 and 20-40 should only matter in identifying gpp players.  In cash it should work out the same over time unless it's a case of 20/20/50 instead of 10/30/50.  If that's the case then the projections need to be based on the median rather than the average.  In that situation there should be two IVCs, one for cash based on median and one for gpp based on mean.

 
Tennessee_ATO said:
Crazy night last night. I'm starting to come around to the notion that using big-ticket players on huge slates is something that you should strongly consider avoiding. When $200/pt won't sniff cashing, it's really tough for a $12,000 player to be helpful in these big slates. 
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There was so much value last night not using Westbrook in cash games was pretty silly imo.   Now maybe on big slates with less value, but with Embiid, Barton, Crowder, and JaMichael it was so easy to make it work.

If you are talking GPP then yes there is merit to fading the 12k guys as there are a lot of pivots who usually have a super high ceiling.   But it all comes down to how many lineups you are making and how risky you want to go.   Most lineups I usually make is 3 and I have been running russ in 2 of those 3 every night he is playing.   His floor/ceiling combination is just insane.   He still seems under priced on FD.

 
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freeannyong said:
There was so much value last night not using Westbrook in cash games was pretty silly imo.   Now maybe on big slates with less value, but with Embiid, Barton, Crowder, and JaMichael it was so easy to make it work.
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this is a pretty bad take.  there were literally like 10 legit cash game options at pg last night and of the value guys you listed crowder and embiid didnt make value and jamicheal shouldnt have.

 
Tennessee_ATO said:
Crazy night last night. I'm starting to come around to the notion that using big-ticket players on huge slates is something that you should strongly consider avoiding. When $200/pt won't sniff cashing, it's really tough for a $12,000 player to be helpful in these big slates. 
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ive said this to you a bunch before, and im sure this will fall on deaf ears also, but you need to stop thinking in absolutes like this.  dfs is so dynamic (even moreso in the nba than in other sports) that you have to take each night/slate/player individually and see where the value is.  people cashed with both balanced lineups and stars/scrubs approach last night.  there was more than enough value to fit some studs in but also tons of good midrange plays too.

 
The 76ers might be cheap tonight, but none of them should be considered top plays because the game is expected to be so low scoring, and the Grizzles should be able to handle them defensively.

Top Plays: Dario Saric, Ersan Ilyasova, Richaun Holmes, Sergio Rodriguez
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So which is it?  

 
sooted72 said:
bass-

what was your cash game lineup last night?
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I haven't been playing cash for a couple of weeks for two reasons:

1. My lineups have been scoring in the bottom 1/2 of the gpps the last couple of weeks.

2. I had some lineups a couple of weeks ago that paid in gpps but not in cash.

I open to rethinking this and realizing that I'm bleeding away an add'l 7-8% in rake.  Wish there was some more Hoopsguys analysis on this subject.

 
sooted72 said:
this is a pretty bad take.  there were literally like 10 legit cash game options at pg last night and of the value guys you listed crowder and embiid didnt make value and jamicheal shouldnt have.
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And none of those 10 had a floor/ceiling projection like Westbrook.  Embiid was in the 80-90% owned range last night in cash and barely missed value. He also smashed on Saturday at like 70% so if you didn't use him for some reason you had a tough time cashing.  Crowder wasn't as highly owned but also barely missed.  But guess what Westbrook went for 65 so he picked up the 4 extra points Embiid and Crowder needed to hit.

Please explain why using Westbrook every night is cash is a bad take?

 
BassNBrew said:
I haven't been playing cash for a couple of weeks for two reasons:

1. My lineups have been scoring in the bottom 1/2 of the gpps the last couple of weeks.

2. I had some lineups a couple of weeks ago that paid in gpps but not in cash.

I open to rethinking this and realizing that I'm bleeding away an add'l 7-8% in rake.  Wish there was some more Hoopsguys analysis on this subject.
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This is the same in NFL for me but I have trouble making GPP lineups without having a cash roster first.   It is very important to understand which guys are going to be the highest owned and what is a good pivot from them for tournaments.

Also if you are struggling, maybe try going to 3 lineups for a week and see how that goes?

 
freeannyong said:
And none of those 10 had a floor/ceiling projection like Westbrook.  Embiid was in the 80-90% owned range last night in cash and barely missed value. He also smashed on Saturday at like 70% so if you didn't use him for some reason you had a tough time cashing.  Crowder wasn't as highly owned but also barely missed.  But guess what Westbrook went for 65 so he picked up the 4 extra points Embiid and Crowder needed to hit.

Please explain why using Westbrook every night is cash is a bad take?
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westbrook was a fine play last night (as he is almost every night really).  as a matter of fact i had grant/wall all day locked in and changed it last minute bc i had to have westbrook in there.  and cashed bc of it.  so i have no beef with westbrook...

having said that you should probably pump the brakes on the whole 'youre an idiot if you didnt play westbrook' take.  like i said there were perhaps 10 legit cash came pg plays last night at all price points. grant/srod/frazier at the lower price points, lowry at midrange, wall at high and westbrook at stud level.  probably one or two guys im forgetting right now too.

and yeah, while "none of those 10 had a floor/ceiling projection like westbrook" they also didnt cost 12.6k either.  and fwiw (admittedly not vert much) the top 3 entries in the huge double up didnt have westbrook and all scored 380+.  so i guess theres more than one way to skin a cat.

 
Thoughts on this LU for 100 player leagues

Drag/Serg/Fournier/LaVine/Mello/Kawi/Porz/Saric/Whiteside

 
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sooted72 said:
westbrook was a fine play last night (as he is almost every night really).  as a matter of fact i had grant/wall all day locked in and changed it last minute bc i had to have westbrook in there.  and cashed bc of it.  so i have no beef with westbrook...

having said that you should probably pump the brakes on the whole 'youre an idiot if you didnt play westbrook' take.  like i said there were perhaps 10 legit cash came pg plays last night at all price points. grant/srod/frazier at the lower price points, lowry at midrange, wall at high and westbrook at stud level.  probably one or two guys im forgetting right now too.

and yeah, while "none of those 10 had a floor/ceiling projection like westbrook" they also didnt cost 12.6k either.  and fwiw (admittedly not vert much) the top 3 entries in the huge double up didnt have westbrook and all scored 380+.  so i guess theres more than one way to skin a cat.
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Yes of course there are multiple ways to do it, but the entire goal of cash games (50/50s, DU) is to build the highest floor with some upside.   It doesn't matter if we get 1st or the last paid spot, it all wins the same.  The floor/ceiling projections are at the core of building lineups for these type of games, which is why I keep harping on it. 

I did not say "you are an idiot if you didn't play westbrook", but by not just plugging him in you have to make more decisions, which leads to more mistakes.

Now if you are building lineups for more of a cash+ standpoint (H2H, TU, Quint, 10/20/100 mans) then that is another conversation and there is plenty of reason to go in different directions.

 
freeannyong said:
I did not say "you are an idiot if you didn't play westbrook", but by not just plugging him in you have to make more decisions, which leads to more mistakes.
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no you said "not using westbrook in cash games was pretty silly" which is close enough.  thats my whole problem with your post.  we're not arguing that he was a good play, we both agree he was.  im arguing with the notion of OMG MUST PLAY which is, like i already said, ridiculous.

you also said "of course there are multiple ways to do it, but the entire goal of cash games (50/50s, DU) is to build the highest floor with some upside" but im not sure exactly how playing westbrook accomplishes that more than, say, wall + paying up at another position.  westbrooks floor may be some super high number like 30ish but if you get that high floor you are still probably a dog to cash bc you had to spend almost 13k on him.  whereas grant only had 11 last night but didnt totally torpedo anyones lineup.

also how did you feel when westbrook had 15 like fdp at the end of the first half?  you do realize that the dude needs over 60 to make value on a normalish night and needed like 65 last night, right?

 
sooted72 said:
no you said "not using westbrook in cash games was pretty silly" which is close enough.  thats my whole problem with your post.  we're not arguing that he was a good play, we both agree he was.  im arguing with the notion of OMG MUST PLAY which is, like i already said, ridiculous.

you also said "of course there are multiple ways to do it, but the entire goal of cash games (50/50s, DU) is to build the highest floor with some upside" but im not sure exactly how playing westbrook accomplishes that more than, say, wall + paying up at another position.  westbrooks floor may be some super high number like 30ish but if you get that high floor you are still probably a dog to cash bc you had to spend almost 13k on him.  whereas grant only had 11 last night but didnt totally torpedo anyones lineup.

also how did you feel when westbrook had 15 like fdp at the end of the first half?  you do realize that the dude needs over 60 to make value on a normalish night and needed like 65 last night, right?
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This is the last post on this and I think Mr. Dodds said it much better than me in his Saturday article.

Despite the massive price increase this week, RB David Johnson ($9,200) remains a MUST-play in cash games. He has been on a tear scoring 5 TDs the last 3 weeks and draws a plus-matchup against the Redskins this week. Even teams that attempt to stop him on the ground find he is equally impressive as a receiver out of the backfield. He has logged 29 targets the past 3 weeks turning those passes into 20 completions for 206 yards and 3 TDs. Rostering David Johnson is equivalent of getting a running back and a wide receiver on your roster. Until his price reaches $11K or higher, I will be roster David Johnson without much thought to his opponent.
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David Johnson = Westbrook

 
Here are my Hoopsguys contrarian value picks for tonight:

C: Rudy Gobert 33.5

PF: Leuer 22.2

SF: Gordon 19.6

SG: McGruder 12.2

PG: Mack 12.7

I struggled to find guys tonight who I thought would beat their HG projections.  Seems like the projections are high for how low the lines are tonight.

 
Got a lineup at 297 with 3 Jazz/Suns players remaining plus a quarter of Holmes.  It won't win but should cash.

 
BassNBrew said:
Here are my Hoopsguys contrarian value picks for tonight:

C: Rudy Gobert 33.5 - 40.2  :thumbup:

PF: Leuer 22.2 - 18.3  :thumbdown:

SF: Gordon 19.6 - 25.6  :thumbup:

SG: McGruder 12.2 - 19  :thumbup:

PG: Mack 12.7 - 18.6  :thumbup:

I struggled to find guys tonight who I thought would beat their HG projections.  Seems like the projections are high for how low the lines are tonight.
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Maybe I should start a pay service.  The new system seems to be working.

 
Now let's review the Hoopsguys value selections

Rodriguez 26.9 - 9.2  :thumbdown:

Johnson 29.7 - 24  :thumbdown:

No credit for Mack because they changed the projection late.

Daniels 24.2 - 12.5  :thumbdown:

Henderson 21.2 - 7.6  :thumbdown:

Anthony 40.5  - 45.3  :thumbup:

Wiggins 30.8 - 15.6  :thumbdown:

Holmes 26.8 - 26.2  :thumbup:

Saric 26.0 - 26.9  :thumbup:

Whiteside 51.6 - 49.3  :thumbdown:

Biyombo 23.6 - 36.6  :thumbup:

4 up, 6 down.  If you went Daniels, Henderson, Wggins, or Rodriguez you likely went home empty.

 
Got called into a meeting at around 530pm last night and knew I would not be able to edit my lineups before lock so I canceled all of them.  Can someone let me know how these 3 LUs would have faired on FD

Thanks

Drag/Serg/Fournier/LaVine/Mello/Kawi/Porz/Saric/Whiteside

Wall/Rub/Fourn/LaVine/Kawi/Mello/LLysa/RHolmes/KAT

Wall/Drag/Fourn/TroyD/Mello/Wigg/Porz/RHolms/Whiteside

 
Megla said:
Got called into a meeting at around 530pm last night and knew I would not be able to edit my lineups before lock so I canceled all of them.  Can someone let me know how these 3 LUs would have faired on FD

Thanks

Drag/Serg/Fournier/LaVine/Mello/Kawi/Porz/Saric/Whiteside

Wall/Rub/Fourn/LaVine/Kawi/Mello/LLysa/RHolmes/KAT

Wall/Drag/Fourn/TroyD/Mello/Wigg/Porz/RHolms/Whiteside
Click to expand...
Accidentally deleted my post after typing in all the numbers.  Second lineup would have been good for 331 and $3 back on a dollar.  I don't think the other two cash in gpp.  Founier was a huge anchor.

 
BassNBrew said:
Now let's review the Hoopsguys value selections

Rodriguez 26.9 - 9.2  :thumbdown:

Johnson 29.7 - 24  :thumbdown:

No credit for Mack because they changed the projection late.

Daniels 24.2 - 12.5  :thumbdown:

Henderson 21.2 - 7.6  :thumbdown:

Anthony 40.5  - 45.3  :thumbup:

Wiggins 30.8 - 15.6  :thumbdown:

Holmes 26.8 - 26.2  :thumbup:

Saric 26.0 - 26.9  :thumbup:

Whiteside 51.6 - 49.3  :thumbdown:

Biyombo 23.6 - 36.6  :thumbup:

4 up, 6 down.  If you went Daniels, Henderson, Wggins, or Rodriguez you likely went home empty.
Click to expand...
Went with Wiggins and Redriguez. Lost in cash and gpp

 
agame2323 said:
What types of games is everyone playing? I'm trying more single entry and H2H. Not working out all the great
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I'm not playing tonight. When I need a break, I avoid big or tiny slates, this being a big one on a night I have seats in Staples. My approach hasn't changed much in a few years. I'm 98% DraftKings (prefer the payout structure and flexible lineups, miss the late lock). On big slates I take it easy on the bankroll, but try to construct 2-3 solid looking cash teams based on different but likely story lines (i.e., maybe the Clips put up a fight with GS or maybe they get destroyed). I don't enter cash teams in huge multi-entry 50/50s and double ups. I look for small ones that fill through the day without a bunch of names on the RG leaderboard.  H2hs, generally and over a period of nights, will have a lower cash line than the big contests, and I really enjoy them. I also enter a half dozen 3-5 team leagues on big slates like this when I like what I see. On smaller slates between 4-6 teams, I love crafting 20-30+ lineups for multi-entry gpps. I think the rationale for this approach has been validated over time by me and in the thinking of many industry leaders. So I play almost all types of games depending on the slate, only avoiding the big mega-multi-entry double up types.

 
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Thoughts on these for GPPs and 100 player Leagues

Paul/Della/Hard/LouWill/HBarns/Mello/Faired/DPowll/Capella

Paul/Roz/Hard/LoWill/Mello/Crowell/Porz/DPowll/JHenson

Paul/Drag/Hard/Ellis/Mello/Deng/DPowll/JMcRob/Whiteside

Clarkson/TylerJohn/Hard/Ant/Mello/Crow/Faired/DPowll/Capella

Clark/Roz/Hard/Ellis/LB/Mello/Porz/DPowll/Capella

 
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