That's exactly what I'm doing - Frazier and LIllard at PG.I think I figured it out. Just play Lillard on FD
This is exactly what I've been mostly devoid of so far this very very young NBA season. Supporting players (not studs, not scrubs) who simply fail to return value, much less 4x or 5x value. I'm sure, like football, once another week or two passes, much more will be known about teams' pace, player trends and backups. Maybe this is the year Avery Bradley breaks out and makes his #1 fan, Danny Ainge, awfully proud.Avery Bradley 14% in the FanDuel slam. Going to reach 5x value in the first half
So true, I should start reading the Deep Dive more. That helped me check my own decisions today. And it reminded me what a big deal pace is as well as the Vegas spread for the games. And agreed with the call on Bradley. Great call, Devin. Porzingis, Lillard and Jokic were also excellent calls.Great call Devin on Bradley. Your great calls the last two days have saved me from my own poor decisions!
Thanks, the Deep Dive puts the projections in context a little bit more than just a projection number. I recommend everyone take a look at the Deep Dive we spend over 5-6 hours per day writing it, so a lot of effort goes into making that thing.So true, I should start reading the Deep Dive more. That helped me check my own decisions today. And it reminded me what a big deal pace is as well as the Vegas spread for the games. And agreed with the call on Bradley. Great call, Devin. Porzingis, Lillard and Jokic were also excellent calls.
EDIT TO ADD: Also, real nice call on Nurkic too. At that great $4900 salary, he is set to return at least 5x value.
Correct me if I'm wring, but we shouldn't need the deep dive for cash lineups? That should be required reading for a tournament player right?Thanks, the Deep Dive puts the projections in context a little bit more than just a projection number. I recommend everyone take a look at the Deep Dive we spend over 5-6 hours per day writing it, so a lot of effort goes into making that thing.
The Deep Dive doesn't hurt for either cash or GPPs. When projections are made they are made with with the expected outcome, but some players are more volatile than others. For example one player floor maybe 15 while his ceiling would be 40. His projection may come out to 28. But if there is a player where his floor is 25 and his ceiling is 35 he would be a better cash game play.Correct me if I'm wring, but we shouldn't need the deep dive for cash lineups? That should be required reading for a tournament player right?
Same here I'm 0-8 in 50/50s. I don't think I can do DFS NBA without being an NBA fan/follower which I am not.Have to say this venture isn't working out so well for me. $13 in, $9 out. I'm playing straight off the IVCs. Will keep this up for a couple of weeks. That should be enough time to tell if this system will work for me.
The cash line in 50/50's compared to GPP's in NBA always seems to be only within a few pts of each other. I just stick to GPP's for NBA unlike NFL.Same here I'm 0-8 in 50/50s. I don't think I can do DFS NBA without being an NBA fan/follower which I am not.
Have to say this venture isn't working out so well for me. $13 in, $9 out. I'm playing straight off the IVCs. Will keep this up for a couple of weeks. That should be enough time to tell if this system will work for me.
I have not had the best of luck this season. I've just broken even and all I'm playing is low stakes 50/50 games and head to heads.Same here I'm 0-8 in 50/50s. I don't think I can do DFS NBA without being an NBA fan/follower which I am not.
Really early. NBA data is generally calculated in terms of point per minute. Unlike NFL and MLB, usage takes some time to figure out. Point is, projections are going to be really unreliable until these guys can get enough data to accurately predict minutes for guys.Same here I'm 0-8 in 50/50s. I don't think I can do DFS NBA without being an NBA fan/follower which I am not.
My shtick here the past couple years was to post spreads and totals and make a brief commentary on the game. Today seems pretty simple for cash games if you build around the games at Pho, at OKC and at Hou. For gpps Memphis needs better analysis based on this blurb -- Wade Baldwin, JaMychal Green, Andrew Harrison, and Jarell Martin all questionable for tonight...So true, I should start reading the Deep Dive more. That helped me check my own decisions today. And it reminded me what a big deal pace is as well as the Vegas spread for the games. And agreed with the call on Bradley. Great call, Devin. Porzingis, Lillard and Jokic were also excellent calls.
EDIT TO ADD: Also, real nice call on Nurkic too. At that great $4900 salary, he is set to return at least 5x value.
Then it would probably make sense to hold off offering the free trail until there's enough data that it would be useful. That said, I've only played 3 days using the IVC so that's not a big enough sample size to make any determinations.Tennessee_ATO said:Really early. NBA data is generally calculated in terms of point per minute. Unlike NFL and MLB, usage takes some time to figure out. Point is, projections are going to be really unreliable until these guys can get enough data to accurately predict minutes for guys.
He's not there, he is at 4200 in the PF position at FDReally nice work the last few days on the promptness of releasing the IVC. Today, I am a little surprised that Mike Muscala (Atlanta) is not on it that I can see? If he is there, and I'm just missing him, please forgive my oversight.
Let me look into this, he should be added in the next update which will be in about 30 minutes. He may not be fed over from our stat feed, but I will get him added in manually.FYI - The Breaking News link/page requires login.
Thank you for the fix, Devin! Now, if only I felt more confident in my lineup for tonight!Let me look into this, he should be added in the next update which will be in about 30 minutes. He may not be fed over from our stat feed, but I will get him added in manually.
Thanks, we are aware of this and are working on a solution for it. We hope to have it fixed this week.One thing I noticed is that when I go to the IVC, I get sent to the regular football web template for articles, news, etc which makes it difficult to navigate back to basketball. Deep dive, projections, news all stay within the basketball template.
Agreed 4 game slates are tough. You almost have to decide if you go Cousins or not, and I'm not 100% sold on Cousins he still grades out as the top center, but is not an absolute shoe inThank you for the fix, Devin! Now, if only I felt more confident in my lineup for tonight!
You aren't alone, believe me. Three 50/50's entered, all out of the money. I think I need to start subscribing to the "studs and scrubs" theory. I had too many pretty good players, and when a couple didn't hit (Lin and Jokic were two biggies), I had no studs to really help like Paul and I'd consider Lowry a stud at this point.Another down night last night. 3 down, 1 up ytd.
Lin was definitely a killer for me, combined with Jokic, with the blowout Bulls-Nets game.Lin wasn't a killer, but Jokic certainly was. It seems like whenever I decide to roster one of those oafy Denver eastern Europeans he immediately gets into foul trouble
Studs and scrubs isn't working for me. The scrubs the IVC is highlighting aren't meeting their projections.You aren't alone, believe me. Three 50/50's entered, all out of the money. I think I need to start subscribing to the "studs and scrubs" theory. I had too many pretty good players, and when a couple didn't hit (Lin and Jokic were two biggies), I had no studs to really help like Paul and I'd consider Lowry a stud at this point.
I agree that the speed of delivery needs to be improved moving up to tip off going forward, but the Conley Gasol news didnt break until after lock.Got to have this info in your breaking news if you're going to charge for this service.
Marc Gasol and Mike Conley will both dress vs. the Wolves on Tuesday, but they are not expected to play.
They are not injured, but the Grizzlies want to give them a maintenance day on the first night of a back-to-back set. Expect Conley to return on Wednesday vs. the Pelicans. Wade Baldwin will draw the start in his absence. Nov 1 - 7:37 PM
You hit on Knotts name to optimizeWhere can I find the optimizer button? Don't see it anywhere...
As far as tracking your projections, analyzing the full universe of players doesn't matter. You could be superior in projecting 90% of the players, but if your missing on the value plays and studs or the competition is better at finding the value play and projecting studs, then your costumer base is going to lose.Couple of things about the IVC's and projections
1) NBA unlike any other sport, is so critical who you select in your initial few players. The vast majority of the people who used the IVC's selected some combination of Kris Dunn, Tim Frazier, Giannis Antetekuonmpo or Anthony Davis. The way that I start out with the IVC, is I put a lot of thought into who I am going to want to select as a cash game play for the day, typically this is a low priced player who will see a lot of minutes, or it is a high priced guy who is a stud. Then I let the IVC fill in the rest for me, but really try to be methodical when selecting those first three players on FD and first two on DraftKings.
2) We are tracking our player projections against two of our main competitors and two of the largest basketball sites out there. While we aren't ready to share the initial results yet as it is not fair to claim statistical significance on an 8 slate sample size, I can tell you that so far this season across the board our projections have been better than one of the sites and equal to the other site. If there are any sites you would like us to benchmark against in this analysis, please let us know and we will be happy to add them to the list as we are always looking to track against competition. Ultimately for the end consumer, this means nothing if you aren't winning. It seems so far we have had some people who have had success and that's great, others however and that means we can do better.
3) At the end of the day, I use the IVC every single day to play contests, all of my picks are in my lineup, and you will never see me win without that. If I could I would love to submit my cash game lineup to you guys everyday, and we are still working on a way to possibly do this, but the reality is that from a time standpoint, the cash game lineup may go through 4-5 iterations in the last hour minutes of lock as I'm tracking the news our team updates on our website. The worry is that if I post an optimal cash game lineup at 5:30 EST, that is likely going to be outdated by 6:15 EST.
4) Statistical projection models are based on historical information to try to determine future results. This early in the season roles are still being defined, players are still adjusting to their new teams/new coaches/new roles. As the season progresses, the model has more data and is using less 2015 data. NBA is a grind compared to NFL or CFB.