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Hoopsguys - FBG ventures into NBA DFS (3 Viewers)

Chaos Commish said:
I put a couple hours into the night slate at DK. Slate cancelled for technical difficulties. I withdrew my funds. Moving to FD.
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Ha. The slate that canceled and the slate I put a couple hours into were two different things + the work was my best of the year. So I left a dollar in my DK account and woke up with $378. Every time I try to get out...

Also, DK has a four teamer for today while it's FD being lame. I like Horford/Rozier with no Kyrie. I like Harden Olidipo at with lots of pace. That's forcing me to look for value. JGrant with Adams out/gimpy helps. RAnderson just 4400. 10k left for two and I'll figure it out from there I guess.

 
I won 10 of 11 $9 h2hs yesterday. I put 250 into some more aggressive gpp play (love Sundays) an 325 came back. So right at +500 over the weekend. I'm not too keen on this 9 game slate today, but I like both Clipper guards (Rivers/Lou). I like Favors. I like Warren and Boogie if I want to squeeze the budget. I change Boogie to Draymond to make room, in which case I like Lonzo (DK allows for 4 PGs if you like). I really like  LA@PHO for big numbers and value. 

 
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Won my 3 man with 312+ getting good games from Butler, Williams and hardaway. $1 gpp was awful as Davis, Love, saric and others were terrible. $3 in $5.40 out.

 
Bah. I had a night where I made a bunch of good calls and things went much as I hoped, but where they didn't they really didn't. 150 in 30 back. Three game slate tonight. I don't care for these unless I have time to make 40 lineups and just surround the thing in a gpp. I don't have the time. I see the total in Houston 14-18 pts over the other two so there's a clue. Harden using witchcraft the past week. So I'd start there. Fan Duel team. Irving and Russell are out so Rozier and Dinwiddie are in. Capela or Horford at C, the rest look like a mess. Pair DeRozen to Harden and that position is chalk. Booker and Anderson look like salary relief values at PF. That leaves enough for Ariza and Gay at SF, Capela fits but not Horford. Not nearly enough Celts for our some but there's my placeholder.

DK is tighter with salaries, looser with LU options, but the same group works if you remove Gay and Ariza to insert Miles. I'm torn about CJ. I like using him at home because shooter, but the pace of this one may have Toronto looking for scoring and that works for him.

 
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Chaos Commish said:
Bah. I had a night where I made a bunch of good calls and things went much as I hoped, but where they didn't they really didn't. 150 in 30 back. Three game slate tonight. I don't care for these unless I have time to make 40 lineups and just surround the thing in a gpp. I don't have the time. I see the total in Houston 14-18 pts over the other two so there's a clue. Harden using witchcraft the past week. So I'd start there. Fan Duel team. Irving and Russell are out so Rozier and Dinwiddie are in. Capela or Horford at C, the rest look like a mess. Pair DeRozen to Harden and that position is chalk. Booker and Anderson look like salary relief values at PF. That leaves enough for Ariza and Gay at SF, Capela fits but not Horford. Not nearly enough Celts for our some but there's my placeholder.

DK is tighter with salaries, looser with LU options, but the same group works if you remove Gay and Ariza to insert Miles. I'm torn about CJ. I like using him at home because shooter, but the pace of this one may have Toronto looking for scoring and that works for him.
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Playing on DK. What do you think of Joe Harris for 3.5k? Using him Dimwiddie and Rozier let's me use the Harden/Capella stack I'm liking alot. Also like Smart on DK alot too.

 
Raging weasel said:
3 man DK lineup for now-

Harden Smith Harris Booker Capela Rozier Deroz Anunoby 
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Irving looking like a go changes everything. I like running both Capela and Horford at DK, but Kyrie playing lowers Al's usage. I'm just screwing around with this little slate. Playing the .25 gpp with 4 bucks mostly for grins and to keep paying attention.

Harris, LaVert, Crabbe?? Gpp only type guys when I'm making tons of teams. I think we both need rethinking. 

 
My initial stab:

Dinwiddie/Mills -- as noted above on Dinwiddie. PG have been a problem for Dallas, plus Mills is some salary relief. 

Harden/Smart -- Figure everyone will have Harden. Brooklyn is bad against guards. Plus Boston has an implied total as high as anyone other than Houston. 

Barnes/Brown -- Barnes may be a reach but he's at home and SA isn't awesome defensively yet. Someone has to score for Dallas. 

Anderson/Tatum -- Like both matchups 

Big Al

This is more Boston than some will like. Probably need another Rocket but I don't love Ariza tonight. Seems odd to take Gordon and Harden, but I could do that. 

 
I like Tor's implied 106.6 better than Boston's 106.8 because the total total is higher and the spread and roster is tighter. Over time those two items have been more important than implied totals. First I look at the total, then the spread, then rosters, then implied totals. Just me though. Still 4 teammates on a 3 game slate is pretty normal. 

As this gets closer I'm finding many studs and duds combos with big potential. Reworking everything for some homerun swings. Using 3 of Harden, Aldridge, Kyrie, DeRozen. They manage that by using combinations of Miles, Mills, Acy, Anderson, Booker, Tucker; and finally this leaves room for a some Dinwiddie, Smith, etc. 

Still under $10 bucks in play but that could go up, way up.

 
The player I can't fade tonight is DeRozen. That roster is tight. He has to shoot and shoot and shoot. So really I'm using 2 of Harden, Kyrie, and Aldridge.. more Lamarcus because his face.

 
Chaos Commish said:
I like Tor's implied 106.6 better than Boston's 106.8 because the total total is higher and the spread and roster is tighter. Over time those two items have been more important than implied totals. First I look at the total, then the spread, then rosters, then implied totals. Just me though. Still 4 teammates on a 3 game slate is pretty normal. 

As this gets closer I'm finding many studs and duds combos with big potential. Reworking everything for some homerun swings. Using 3 of Harden, Aldridge, Kyrie, DeRozen. They manage that by using combinations of Miles, Mills, Acy, Anderson, Booker, Tucker; and finally this leaves room for a some Dinwiddie, Smith, etc. 

Still under $10 bucks in play but that could go up, way up.
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I'm only showing a 0.5 point difference on spread. Is that not right?

 
Chaos Commish said:
The player I can't fade tonight is DeRozen. That roster is tight. He has to shoot and shoot and shoot. So really I'm using 2 of Harden, Kyrie, and Aldridge.. more Lamarcus because his face.
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I can use him in cash, but I have to lose Smart (whom I like tonight) and swap Barnes for Gay. I like Gay more than most in general but I'm not feeling him tonight. 

 
This is working out okay. Gpp - 16 teams well above the pay line, 4 not gonna make it. Should have played dollar bills or five dollar bills... quarters, doh.

 
So Dinwiddie Harden Miles  Barnes Aldridge Ariza Mills Smith Jr.

That's the big winner in the .25 gpp. I had significant exposure to all of them, but just didn't find that combination. Anyway, $5 in 20.73 back. Should have put more in.

 
I was just behind the cutline w/ my cash -- 296.6 despite Smart's >$500/point outing. Cutlines ran mostly 299-300 in 2x and 50/50, 304-305 in 3x. I've had luck riding the front edge of the wave in 3-game slates for a couple seasons now. Just missed tonight (caught a couple 50/50, but that's it). My GPP plays mostly all min-cashed. Down for the night, but only 0.09 units. 

 
I have some tickets for tomorrow's slate at DK. So here's a placeholder, no rest for the wicked.

Started by putting Brook Lopez in at C. At home he's been looking good and he'll be needed because of Embiid. I went back to Mills and plugged in Belinelli at SG. He's been under the radar but productive and I like this spot. Not because of revenge, but because home shooter with low ownership price and pretty high minutes regardless of game flow. I went with Covington and Portis. I haven't seen much of Chicago this year but the numbers are looking good and no Justin Holliday should boost usage. Paid up a little for Kemba, Teague and a lot for Brow. Eh, it's a start.

Rondo and Batum are back. Rondo sure to have limited minutes but Batum might get some run.

 
Philly@LAL, Cle@Char, Tor@NO have significantly higher totals than the rest.

Chicago@OKC, Utah@NY, Sac@Atl the three lowest.

So I'll feature the former and fade the latter for the most part, but I still feel Portis in this one. I'm making 20 more quarter lineups but for this slate it's in search of a cash LU for h2hs. I'll post the one I decide to use if I can stay awake. 

 
Tennessee_ATO said:
I think you're probably right on B. Lopez, but man -- I swore off Lopezes after he burned me (again) last week. 
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So many Cs on this slate, you have tons of options. I see almost every player as two different guys. The guy at home and the guy on the road. Often my LUs are 100% players at home.

 
Here's my cash place holder. It feels "off" to me, but as a starting point I guess it's ok. 

Kemba/DeAaron -- See above on Kemba. De'Aaron is on the road, but Atl is < good defensively and he's cheap. 

Lamb/Hield -- This is where I'm really uncomfortable. Lamb is probably fine. But a 2nd King guard on the road isn't where I'll settle. I'll likely swap Simmons out and upgrade at least 1 of the Sac guards. 

Ingram/Green -- meh. Ingram is probably fine. Green is a little dicey for cash, though I like the matchup. Some cost savings here. 

Brow/Simmons -- Hard to not like Davis tonight. I think Simmons could overwhelm the Lakers, but going cheaper here would help at G. 

Lopez -- <Sigh>

 
Tennessee_ATO said:
Here's my cash place holder. It feels "off" to me, but as a starting point I guess it's ok. 

Kemba/DeAaron -- See above on Kemba. De'Aaron is on the road, but Atl is < good defensively and he's cheap. 

Lamb/Hield -- This is where I'm really uncomfortable. Lamb is probably fine. But a 2nd King guard on the road isn't where I'll settle. I'll likely swap Simmons out and upgrade at least 1 of the Sac guards. 

Ingram/Green -- meh. Ingram is probably fine. Green is a little dicey for cash, though I like the matchup. Some cost savings here. 

Brow/Simmons -- Hard to not like Davis tonight. I think Simmons could overwhelm the Lakers, but going cheaper here would help at G. 

Lopez -- <Sigh>
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Could change to this:

Kemba/De'Aaron

Lamb/Hield DeRozan -- obvious upgrade into big total game.

Ingram/Green Gay -- Gay had only 16 minutes last night, maybe to rest for more action tonight?  Could stick with Green and make a switch on Lopez.

Brow/Simmons ZBo -- He's priced right I guess, but do I really want 2 Kings?  ATL is bad against guys like him.  I have the salary to go to Randle or Ibaka.

Lopez -- Could dump Gay for Green, then make Lopez either Howard or MGasol, who are both at home and both have intriguing matchups.

 
An hour to go no word from Pop. I'm guessing no resting and sticking with Mills for cap relief. 

I'm off in a mostly different direction TAto so I'm not real comfortable advising, BUT Batum is starting. That's not great for Lamb, and as I mentioned last night, he could get significant run. Hell, he could be a dfs value. I don't like any Kings tonight although a couple have to hit value. Just not feel for it. Shaky confidence in Brook but the price makes it okay. Gasol is my favorite play at C but you have to pay up some. No strong opinion on Ingram here. He has disappointed me a few times recently, but that will change. Currently rolling the following out for some h2h:

Mills McCollom Covington Gibson Gasol Walker DeRozen BLopez

No top dollar picks.

 
Chaos Commish said:
Conley out gimme some Chalmers.

Carmelo back, Grant George small downgrade.
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Yeah, I rushed Chalmers in everywhere. Totally changed things. I was still trying to tweak when time got me. My cash:

Walker/Chalmers

DeRozan/Evans

Fournier/Gay

ZBo/Brow

Lopez

Wanted to get more stud/scrub w/ Anunoby for Fournier then push ZBo into Aldridge but ran out of time. I'm everywhere on my GPP. 

 
Chaos Commish said:
An hour to go no word from Pop. I'm guessing no resting and sticking with Mills for cap relief. 

I'm off in a mostly different direction TAto so I'm not real comfortable advising, BUT Batum is starting. That's not great for Lamb, and as I mentioned last night, he could get significant run. Hell, he could be a dfs value. I don't like any Kings tonight although a couple have to hit value. Just not feel for it. Shaky confidence in Brook but the price makes it okay. Gasol is my favorite play at C but you have to pay up some. No strong opinion on Ingram here. He has disappointed me a few times recently, but that will change. Currently rolling the following out for some h2h:

Mills McCollom Covington Gibson Gasol Walker DeRozen BLopez

No top dollar picks.
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I didn't realize Batum was starting. That's what set me off on my rejiggering initially. Now I have Kemba only in that game tho -- that's probably not ideal. 

 
60 in 1 gpp 24 back. It was breaking even going into the final 4th qtr - Embeast! cost me. 100 into h2hs, 156 back. So 160 total in 180 out. 

2 game slate. For grins:

DK: pg Kyrie, sg Booker, sf PJ, pf Morris, c Len, g James, f Durant, u Horford

FD is harder. My initial thought is Kyrie Booker Durant are in great spots if both games are close. Fading Harden because Paul is back is not my thinking so much as price. Funny Paul is more than Kyrie at FD - lame pricing. Smart Brown Morris Tatum; it's fairly futile guesswork afaic. Guess right and you're good, but it sure seems there's more predictable strategies.

Looking forward to GS@Bos. Deleted my oddball GS thinking because it's just rambline. 

Actually looking forward to both games. Curious about CP3 w/Harden. I have my doubts. A sort of fun way to play this would be to make teams considering each possible outcome vis a vis GS blowout+Hou blowout, or GS blowout+Hou close, or Bos competes+Hou blowout, or both competitive. I think those are the most likely possibilities. I'd enjoy Bos+Pho blowouts more than anything, but yeah right.

 
Tennessee_ATO said:
I'm not playing tonight. 2 game slates are just random. 
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I can't resist a few head to heads just for the randomness. I edited that team a few times then decided to just join a few more. 5 $1 games and it's worth the entertainment. DFS makes NBA enjoyable, especially the 4th quarter of the last game when you're in the money. Short slate h2hs can be hilariously entertaining down the stretch (so can turbo slates). Things change with nearly every possession. 

Curious what you expect from the Celtics tonight.

 
$1 SE on DK. fading most of the big guns to be different on a 2 game slate and hoping for the best

irving gordon warren green capela brown morris iggy

good luck all!!

 
Chaos Commish said:
I can't resist a few head to heads just for the randomness. I edited that team a few times then decided to just join a few more. 5 $1 games and it's worth the entertainment. DFS makes NBA enjoyable, especially the 4th quarter of the last game when you're in the money. Short slate h2hs can be hilariously entertaining down the stretch (so can turbo slates). Things change with nearly every possession. 

Curious what you expect from the Celtics tonight.
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Just now seeing this @ 3:47 left tied 81-81. Obviously very pleased w/ the defensive effort. But it's November, so I take it all w/ a grain of salt. Boston looks like they're going to be limited offensively all season.

Been bouncing back and forth w/ Titans game so I haven't watched it continuously. 

 
See now. The game in Phoenix last night was so brutal (interesting in a way) that most fans would just tune out. I on the other hand had four incredibly close back and forth head to head contests raging. It was madness. Went 2 and 3. Observation: my 190 pt crap team went 1-1. My decent 235 pt team went 1-2. I've had a lot of good fortune in h2hs that simply isn't available in other cash games where the pros are rolling out long strong trains and amateurs are paying for lineups in which to do the same.

Big  slate tonight. 

Clips Cavs -6.5 221.5 

Knicks Raptors -8.5 216.5

Pels Nuggets -4.5 218

Suns Lakers -6.5 227

__________________________

Thunder Spurs pk 197.5

Hornets Bulls +6 198

Blazers Kings +7 198

___________________________

Four to feature three to fade. Just a guide. 

Lowry Miles Ingram Brow Monroe JMurray Warren Kuzma

I expect the Laker Sun game to be heavily stacked tonight, but I can't think of a good enough reason to fade it.  

 
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