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Hoopsguys - FBG ventures into NBA DFS (1 Viewer)

Chaos Commish said:
See now. The game in Phoenix last night was so brutal (interesting in a way) that most fans would just tune out. I on the other hand had four incredibly close back and forth head to head contests raging. It was madness. Went 2 and 3. Observation: my 190 pt crap team went 1-1. My decent 235 pt team went 1-2. I've had a lot of good fortune in h2hs that simply isn't available in other cash games where the pros are rolling out long strong trains and amateurs are paying for lineups in which to do the same.

Big  slate tonight. 

Clips Cavs -6.5 221.5 

Knicks Raptors -8.5 216.5

Pels Nuggets -4.5 218

Suns Lakers -6.5 227

__________________________

Thunder Spurs pk 197.5

Hornets Bulls +6 198

Blazers Kings +7 198

___________________________

Four to feature three to fade. Just a guide. 

Lowry Miles Ingram Brow Monroe JMurray Warren Kuzma

I expect the Laker Sun game to be heavily stacked tonight, but I can't think of a good enough reason to fade it.  
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Interested to hear your take on Lonzo. My first time to really watch him was Philly. That his shot wouldn't fall isn't surprising to me b/c his motion is an unrepeatable mess IMO. But I was shocked that it seemed to affect everything else in his game. I'm asking b/c I'm having a hard time not playing Clarkson b/c I can see Lonzo losing minutes. 

 
Tennessee_ATO said:
Interested to hear your take on Lonzo. My first time to really watch him was Philly. That his shot wouldn't fall isn't surprising to me b/c his motion is an unrepeatable mess IMO. But I was shocked that it seemed to affect everything else in his game. I'm asking b/c I'm having a hard time not playing Clarkson b/c I can see Lonzo losing minutes. 
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He's going through mental issues. Walton is correct in believing if you hit those shots in college you will hit them in the NBA. Ball regularly hit NBA distance threes last year and at times seemed a legit three point shooter despite the awful mechanics. He was never an assassin, but had a JR Smith type streakiness. Lately he's missing layups. It's in his head. In summer league he was fine outside. He's draining threes regularly in practice. It's a slump he solves soon or it could become cancerous. Michael Carter Williams comes to mind. I like his defense. I love his open court speed and vision. My head tells me it's just a matter of games before he lights it up, maybe tonight. My gut is a little sick with worry he just sucks at this level because the obvious flaw we all saw is too much to overcome. I have 20 LUs going. He's on 2. This game could be just what he needs though Phoenix may put up the defensive effort of their lives after last night's disgrace. 

Clarkson? I use him on the road all the time and he comes through regularly. It is crowded with KCP and Brewer needing to be on the court. I think 28-33 is a reasonable DK projection for Clarkson tonight. If Ball is scoring Clarkson will not get the 4th qtr run that's been a big part of his recent output. No one in his price range jumps out until you go up 600 to Hood.

 
Chaos Commish said:
He's going through mental issues. Walton is correct in believing if you hit those shots in college you will hit them in the NBA. Ball regularly hit NBA distance threes last year and at times seemed a legit three point shooter despite the awful mechanics. He was never an assassin, but had a JR Smith type streakiness. Lately he's missing layups. It's in his head. In summer league he was fine outside. He's draining threes regularly in practice. It's a slump he solves soon or it could become cancerous. Michael Carter Williams comes to mind. I like his defense. I love his open court speed and vision. My head tells me it's just a matter of games before he lights it up, maybe tonight. My gut is a little sick with worry he just sucks at this level because the obvious flaw we all saw is too much to overcome. I have 20 LUs going. He's on 2. This game could be just what he needs though Phoenix may put up the defensive effort of their lives after last night's disgrace. 

Clarkson? I use him on the road all the time and he comes through regularly. It is crowded with KCP and Brewer needing to be on the court. I think 28-33 is a reasonable DK projection for Clarkson tonight. If Ball is scoring Clarkson will not get the 4th qtr run that's been a big part of his recent output. No one in his price range jumps out until you go up 600 to Hood.
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Thanks. I think Lonzo will eventually be fine. They're going to have to deconstruct that shot in the off-season IMO b/c it's just got too many moving parts to be repeatable. But the kid can do everything else. If he'll just listen to coaching they can fix his shot. Tonight, I'm using him in GPPs with some regularity b/c this seems like a game to get some confidence going.

In cash I can build a lineup w/ Lebron and Westbrook. But it requires me to put my faith in Chriss, Monroe, Murray, and Clarkson. I feel good about Monroe, ok about Murray, anxious about Chriss, and ambivalent about Clarkson. If I knew Clarkson would get 25 minutes I'd blindly start him.

 
Raging weasel said:
Clarkson did nothing as he wasn't even playing at the end. Did win $2 in the DK freeroll with 281.2 so broke even on the night.
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My free roll entry was my h2h lineup. 269 pts for $1 and 9 for 10 in the h2h for a nice night. 20 gpps based on that lineup - $60 in 83 back. I've been consistently in the black for the most part. I'm not keeping careful track like I used to because I am playing for such small stakes in comparison, but today is tempting. I wish there was a $1-2 multi entry that let me play 50 or so lineups, but at DK that game is $8 per and at FD $4. I might try at FD if the contest doesn't fill before I decide on this slate. Three hours to go and just having a look. 

I know I like Durant in Philly. If Kemba is out Malik is going to be fun to watch. Kid's a straight scorer. Batum probably benefits the most and he's already undervalued. Harden still practicing witchcraft. Rubio back hurts Mitchell and Hood. Good luck all. I'm going to play around with lineups and kind of research a little deeper than I have been. :shrug:  

 
Durant is out. I guess that's best for Curry and Klay in a semi competitive game. I'm just unsure if we'll get one. This might be the spot for Harris to bomb away in garbage time at home for a low price. The total is 233, wth is that? I've got a unit on Phoenix to cover a two point spread. It's my biggest bet of the day. I like all the usual Suns today, but picking the right one or three will be key. 222 Total in LA in a game that should be pretty competitive. I'm feeling Milsap Jokic and Murray; Kuzma Lopez. We can be almost certain gpp winners will come from way back then run away from those who fade the last game. So I want a piece of it. Building off of a placeholder that included Durant, I find myself unintentionally fading Pacers Heat. Totals agree with that, but it's just a 4 game slate so. The placeholder was MJames Crabbe Durant Warren Lopez Butler Draymond Bender... yeah still waiting on my Bender explosion. He's getting minutes. I'm blowing up that lineup where generally I'll just rotate players in and out for the combos. Sundays have been great to me. Good luck. NBA rules NFL drools.

 
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I crushed it yesterday. Base team scored 330 and won 20 h2hs while finishing top 25 in a big gpp. A dozen + teams were based on it, one bettered it.  So yeah, I love Sundays. And the Phoenix spread covering bet, that hit too. Happy holidays.

Today totals hate Por@Mem and I hate that because I've had those teams dialed in. Also low on Hawks/Spurs Celts/Mavs. I'm fine fading those I think. Need to look at roster issues. I'm just waking up, 9:30 west coast. Hate that the 7 game slate is pick 'em only. So the big slate is for you cash game guys. I'm not comfortable with the huge player pool for gpps. I'll have a look at FD. See if they have a workable slate for me. I hate hate hate taking unders but 207 Den@Sac seems high. Sac can't score and Denver is coming in sloppy.

 
I already had Khris slotted so I'm probably completely locked in now. Here's where I am for cash:

Teague/Bledsoe -- Tempo + revenge are too much to bypass for Bledsoe. Teague has burned me before, but ATL isn't good against guards. 

Lou/Khris -- I like Lou's matchup and usage here. I think Middleton was a decent play with The Greek playing. 

Carroll/Warren -- Love the O/U for these games. Warren at home. Carroll on the road but Cleveland is terrible at defense. 

Aldridge/Chriss -- More of the Mil-Pho game. Aldridge gives me heartburn but I like his matchup a ton. Not sure he gets to 40 though, which is less than ideal. 

Love -- dunno about this. Love could go crazy. Or not. I may make a change here. 

$900 unspent so tweaking is certainly possible. Any feedback appreciated. 

 
Tennessee_ATO said:
361+ and may not do much more than hit my doubles and 50/50. Tweaked some things. Carroll was a turd but everyone else was good to great. 
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365.3. Won a bit. Switching out my PF from Aldridge/Chriss to Blake/Mbah a Moute was the winning decision. If Carroll hadn't shot like crap (4/12, 0/6 on 3's) that woulda been a monster. I almost squared-up on a couple of GPPs too. In one I had Westy, Paul, Middleton, and Maker but paired them with Carroll and J. Simmons for salary relief and got turds from both. Min-cashed on all GPPs except one (255 on it). Good night back. 

 
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307.6 was good enough to cash both 50/50s and 1/2 of my 3 man contests. Only getting 9 from valanciunas but still cashing was surprising. $8 in $12.60 out.

 
Didn't play yesterday. Looking at tonight's slate. Not sure how to play it. If Durant sits, I guess Curry looks good. Tatum likely gets a bit of a bump w/ Morris out. I'm thinking McConnell is worth some run w/ Simmons out. Big totals look like Orl/Phi, NY/Hou, NOH/GS. But those last 2 also have massive spreads (for good reason). NY and GS is in the midst of a 3-in-4 too.

All that to say I don't know what I'm doing tonight. 

 
Fell asleep and missed main slate so playing a 3 man in the early express.

Irving Schroeder Harden DeRozan Stephenson Bogdonovich Tatum Young OQuinn

Good luck!!

 
Just got home from the holiday. We do it in Vegas every year, so I've had my share of gambling (not winning) but no DFS for days. Will be back in the saddle tomorrow. 

 
Tennessee_ATO said:
No Curry or Durant tonight. What does that do for that game?
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It's messy, isn't it? Casspi, Iggy, Dray, Livingston, Klay, Looney... no idea if I was looking for the cash game value. In multi-entry gpp I can try a few. Hour and a half to go. That list of names is in order sort of. Dray is gimpy too. I have 20 teams saved for the $3 gpp at DK and haven't given this much thought yet. I've been draining my bank account Christmas shopping CyberMonday deals. 

 
Tennessee_ATO said:
RG really down on Bayless for some reason. At $3600 he's got some real appeal to me. Am I missing something?
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I haven't got to RG today and probably won't. Simmons is playing. McConnell/Reddick carry a lot of the load there. Bayless is risky but he's cheap. I think a gpp play only. :shrug:  

I am being disciplined filtering out the lowest totals and emphasizing the highest. It has been the secret to my "success" so far. I did nicely last night. So it's been 7 winning nights in the last 8 I've played and really it's been 90% fading the low and highlighting the high totals.

 
fwiw, I seem to be all over Harris for value, and I'm using Casspi more than any Warrior.

And, I'm treating it like a five game slate fading the three low totals.

 
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Ugh. Didn't have time to change my lineups pre opening tip. I got 2 of my GPPs assembled but time got me. I've got a ####-ton of my placeholder entry going tonight. Oh well, I guess I'll see how good my instincts were. Lots of GS-Sac and Cle-Phi. 

 
Tennessee_ATO said:
Ugh. Didn't have time to change my lineups pre opening tip. I got 2 of my GPPs assembled but time got me. I've got a ####-ton of my placeholder entry going tonight. Oh well, I guess I'll see how good my instincts were. Lots of GS-Sac and Cle-Phi. 
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:D  It happens. Once a dozen lineups I wanted to change made money. I certainly would have screwed it up if I had the chance. 

 
Just 3 of 20 teams made money last night. One was good for $30 (a momentarily exciting team to sweat), the other two made 7. 60 in 37 back, bah. I suck. Just glad I'm not playing cash or h2h hard these past few nights. I think tonight I mix those in a little but still keep the stakes low. This is a cash slate to me. I finally have a full day to devote to a slate. I'll make 20 .25ers just to get focused while looking for my h2her.

MCW starting for Kemba. I think Malik is the greater beneficiary there. Well, I just think he's a big time scorer. A young Lou W or Jamal C type who will make stats with minutes. RHJ and Crabbe likely still out makes Brooklyn a team to exploit. It didn't work out last time, but that was more a Houston thing, I think. Durant and Curry questionable in the late game makes me want to fade all Warriors. Ugh. If news comes in early, I might go heavy gpp in the 3 game night slate. I feel locked into how to play it with an obvious fade of SA/Mem. Wall is still out. I was right to fade heavily owned Frazier and will do so again. Beal jumps out but the cap hit hurts. 

Totals, imo, suggest fading games in Tor, SA, and NY; though the approach has worked well for getting a decent % into the money, the big winners lately have been choosing wisely from low total contests. Also, blowouts have been problematic as always and tonight has several games that might not be competitive. Rather than focusing on totals maybe looking at the games that should be tight makes some sense. A little of each? 

 
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Durant and Curry playing... listed as probable, but I think losing to Sac... they play. Also value plays from that game that make cap space available elsewhere just took a hit, but good to have early news. 

If Simmons is out McConnell and JJ become worth a few spots, obviously.

No Olidipo boosts useage everywhere making me like Sabonis, Collison, and Joseph. 

Whiteside out -- Bam.

Teague questionable. I like Tyus if we get news early enough. 

As for studs tonight, hard to look past Harden in a game that could be competitive, will have high pace, has a 222 total, and really no one to defend him. The blowout is my only concern. I see several RGers going all in on Russ, but George is hitting on all cylinders with no one to defend him too and a much more flexible cap hit.

While I missed finding value from the Brooklyn roster issues last time, I did watch the game, and for impressive stretches Isaiah Whitehead was the best Net on the floor. No idea if he gets a big run or not tonight, but certainly worth a spot or three in multi-entry formats.

 
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So here's the first gpp lu that made me say, "hmmm... could happen."

Monk Harden HBarnes A Gordon Bam IWhiteside George RJackson

There's a ton of alternative lus to pivot for if you hold Bam and Monk or Whiteside...

My h2her will be similar but less risky (no Monk/Whiteside combo)

 
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Damnit to hell. Grabbed quite a few spots at lunch today with a plan to spend a good hour playing around this evening. Then got sucked into a meeting and forgot my son had therapy so I had to feed him. 

I've got 1 half-### lineup entered in 16 contest ranging the gamut of formats. 

 
Blech. Beal (who I would have had a ton of regardless) hurt. Sixers routing Wash so Gortat (who I would have had none of, he just fit the last slot salary-wise) is rendered more useless than he would have been. 

Good times. 

 
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Chaos Commish said:
So here's the first gpp lu that made me say, "hmmm... could happen."

Monk Harden HBarnes A Gordon Bam IWhiteside George RJackson
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Late news on Teague had me scrambling to get Tyus in some lineups. That caused me to leave the above LU in 10 h2h contests. It has 7 of them won and might go undefeated. It is also in the top 500 of 47562 entries in a gpp. It will slide some but a top 3-4% team. Me happy.

 
Finished top 2.5% in the gpp, 299 points, got caught by an Ingram team in regulation and a Curry team in OT.  $160 in $216 back. Right at minimum wage. :)

 
Scored 304.1 but only got it in a couple of contests that filled. Used mostly my Pistons, Orl and Wash players with Westbrook. Cashed in 2 50/50s but not 5 man or gpp.  $7 in $7.20 out.

 
Raging weasel said:
Scored 304.1 but only got it in a couple of contests that filled. Used mostly my Pistons, Orl and Wash players with Westbrook. Cashed in 2 50/50s but not 5 man or gpp.  $7 in $7.20 out.
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That should have done better. I was top 1100 of 47k cashing easily (11k paid) with 299. Also many teams I made based on that cashed and a couple scored higher. Was this FD? One of my regular h2h nemeses hit for 20 grand in a gpp there last night. The Ingram team that caught me in regulation at DK had Curry also at FD and just ran up the leaderboards. Cheers to him. 

Anyway, five gamer today. Best for GPP, imo (well, 4-6 gamers). Don't have to worry much about totals either, the two late games being the lowest but having the tightest spreads and all kinds of Clipper value with 4 starters injured including their best player. Good luck calling it right. No doubt the big winners tonight will. Sam Dekker? I liked his apparent potential in Houston last year but Doc hasn't seen it I guess. Thornwell? Eh, the Blake injury should help bigs. Reed? Well, he's a pure 5. Montrezl? Yeah maybe. All in on Lou? Sure. Still favoring Favors sans Gobert? yup. Mitchell was heavily used in Staples last time, but played poorly. I think he can light it up this time. Also I'm probably going to this game. I can get seats on the floor tonight. So look for the old Italian mook in black sitting with a very young lady in Clipper gear (daughter). 

It's a shame Embiid is resting for Boston. I thought the 9 point spread seemed too much before remembering the plan to rest him. McConnell also questionable. If it was a home game, I'd be all over Saric. This game is baffling me. TennATO? Tatum is the guy here right? I guess I want value pricing and here the higher priced guys make sense. Feels like a Kyrie night. Horford since Embiid is sitting? Morris sure muddies my Tatum love. 

I feel like fading Cleveland at Atlanta because the road team blowout seems too likely, but Collins is interesting with Dedmon down. He's aggressive generating stats per minute. 

Milsap and Chandler out makes Manimal sensible. Chicago is playing hard and fast and losing, so this could get high scoring. I think over 209 is a pretty safe bet. 

 Finally, Mil@Por, I always use McCollum but that team struggles to score and the Bucks do defend. Not a hard fade, but faded for the DK placeholder that feels a little too heavy on Phi/Bos.

Kyrie Lou Dekker Faried Collins Simmons Saric Horford

$100 from slipping Mitchell in for Horford at Utility, but plenty of swap-able options again for multi entries. 

 
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Typed it wrong, had 301.4. It was FD the $1 SE 20k dribbler, cash line was 304.7 :angry:   Would have swept my contests if I had used just about anyone other than Porzingas who got 3 before leaving hurt. Missed the 5 man by 9+ points.

 
Grind down picks:

Elite Plays – LeBron James, Kevin Love (FD)  Dennis Schroder (GPP), Kent Bazemore (FD), Taurean Prince (GPP), John Collins  Ben Simmons, Dario Saric Kyrie Irving, Marcus Morris (FD)  Kris Dunn (GPP), Bobby Portis (GPP)  Jamal Murray, Will Barton, Juan Hernangomez, Kenneth Faried (GPP)  Damian Lillard (DK), Jusuf Nurkic  Ricky Rubio  Lou Williams (DK), Wesley Johnson (GPP)  

Secondary Plays – Kevin Love (DK), Dwyane Wade, Kyle Korver Dennis Schroder (Cash), Kent Bazemore (DK), Taurean Prince (Cash), Marco Belinelli Robert Covington, J.J. Redick Marcus Morris (DK), Jaylen Brown (FD), Jayson Tatum (FD), Al Horford (GPP) Kris Dunn (Cash), Bobby Portis (Cash), Lauri Markkanen (GPP) Gary Harris, Nikola Jokic, Kenneth Faried (Cash) Khris Middleton, Giannis Antetokounmpo Damian Lillard (FD), C.J. McCollum Donovan Mitchell, Joe Ingles, Derrick Favors Lou Williams (FD), Wesley Johnson (Cash), Austin Rivers, Montrezl Harrell, Sam Dekker

I've never listed them all like this before. Sort of funny in that, well damn hard to screw up when you pick that many. He does a good job defending his observations, and like me he's basically listed every Clipper expecting minutes. My placeholder is fully represented, 6 elite plays and Dekker Horford. He likes Rubio more than Mitchell and Portis over Lauri... I disagree. He likes Lillard and Nurkic in the game I faded, but interesting Giannis is only a secondary play. I agree there. I like the Dunn, Murray and Hernangomez calls. I can see that game being key. Jokic might go nuts and neither of us mentioned him. Trying to fit him in a FanDuel LU right now. I like Wesley Johnson to load the stat sheet tonight. I'll use Rivers a little too.

Obviously, I'm into this one. I'm thinking FD where I can afford 40-50 entries at $4.44 ea. 100k to the winner in that one...

 
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