Horrid Weather forecasts (1 Viewer)

[snogger]

In the fear of crashing the server knowing how many times the "forecast" is wrong, figured it was time for a thread..

Last nights 9pm news:

"Tomorrow we will have a quick snow event in the morning.. One to three inches at most"

Fast forward to 4am - Winter Storm warning

THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE IN TWIN CITIES/CHANHASSEN HAS ISSUEDA WINTER STORM WARNING FOR HEAVY SNOW...WHICH IS IN EFFECT FROM 5AM TO NOON CST THURSDAY.* TIMING...SNOW WILL BEGIN AROUND 4 OR 5 AM AND QUICKLY BECOME HEAVY BY 6 AM. THE HEAVY SNOW WILL PERSIST THROUGH THE ENTIRE MORNING RUSH HOUR BEFORE TAPERING OFF IN THE MID TO LATE MORNING.* SNOW ACCUMULATION...4 TO 6 INCHES...WITH LOCALLY HIGHER TOTALS POSSIBLE.

Forecasting out a couple of days fine.. crap shoot.. we get it..

But this big of a swing & a miss in 7 hours??

 

[GroveDiesel]

Back in December we had a day where they were calling for less than an inch of snow. The forecast never even updated until well into the event, but we ended up with over 9 inches in about 4 hours. It was total chaos.

That was a Sunday and a large part of the country saw it happen as the Eagles had like a foot of snow on their field and were totally unprepared to deal with it.

So yeah, from under an inch to 9-10 inches and the forecast never even updated. Horrible.

Just shows you how much we still don't understand about weather.

 

[Widbil83]

When they call for a "dusting" or inch around here we usually get the most snow.

 

[Apple Jack]

In the fear of crashing the server knowing how many times the "forecast" is wrong, figured it was time for a thread..

Last nights 9pm news:

"Tomorrow we will have a quick snow event in the morning.. One to three inches at most"

Fast forward to 4am - Winter Storm warning

THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE IN TWIN CITIES/CHANHASSEN HAS ISSUEDA WINTER STORM WARNING FOR HEAVY SNOW...WHICH IS IN EFFECT FROM 5AM TO NOON CST THURSDAY.* TIMING...SNOW WILL BEGIN AROUND 4 OR 5 AM AND QUICKLY BECOME HEAVY BY 6 AM. THE HEAVY SNOW WILL PERSIST THROUGH THE ENTIRE MORNING RUSH HOUR BEFORE TAPERING OFF IN THE MID TO LATE MORNING.* SNOW ACCUMULATION...4 TO 6 INCHES...WITH LOCALLY HIGHER TOTALS POSSIBLE.

Forecasting out a couple of days fine.. crap shoot.. we get it..

But this big of a swing & a miss in 7 hours??

Was this something that developed, or a system that took a course different than the forecast?

 

[snogger]

In the fear of crashing the server knowing how many times the "forecast" is wrong, figured it was time for a thread..

Last nights 9pm news:

"Tomorrow we will have a quick snow event in the morning.. One to three inches at most"

Fast forward to 4am - Winter Storm warning

THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE IN TWIN CITIES/CHANHASSEN HAS ISSUEDA WINTER STORM WARNING FOR HEAVY SNOW...WHICH IS IN EFFECT FROM 5AM TO NOON CST THURSDAY.* TIMING...SNOW WILL BEGIN AROUND 4 OR 5 AM AND QUICKLY BECOME HEAVY BY 6 AM. THE HEAVY SNOW WILL PERSIST THROUGH THE ENTIRE MORNING RUSH HOUR BEFORE TAPERING OFF IN THE MID TO LATE MORNING.* SNOW ACCUMULATION...4 TO 6 INCHES...WITH LOCALLY HIGHER TOTALS POSSIBLE.

Forecasting out a couple of days fine.. crap shoot.. we get it..

But this big of a swing & a miss in 7 hours??

Was this something that developed, or a system that took a course different than the forecast?

Based on the report this morning just a complete "Swing and a Miss"...

The Fox 9 weatherman this morning posted on Facebook:

"With the warmer then expected temperatures yesterday we should have seen that more moisture would be available for this storm."

 

[Ramblin Wreck]

 

[PatriotJohn]

What you have to realize that with regards to a major storm, a differencein 20-30 miles in a storm track can be a difference in getting 1-2" versus 5-7". And a lot of times the track of a storm or low pressure system cannot be nailed down until it is only a few hours away. This is not an excuse, but a meteorological fact.

 

[Tom Servo]

What you have to realize that with regards to a major storm, a differencein 20-30 miles in a storm track can be a difference in getting 1-2" versus 5-7". And a lot of times the track of a storm or low pressure system cannot be nailed down until it is only a few hours away. This is not an excuse, but a meteorological fact.

BIG WEATHER apologist.

 

[Guest]

The San Diego weather people have a cush job.

News Anchor: Now let's check in with the weather.

Weather Guy: Looks like temps between 78 and 82 for the next 3 weeks. Back to you Bob.

 

[IvanKaramazov]

This sort of thing seems pretty routine to me. I can recall lots of days when we were forecast for 10+ inches of snow the day before and ended up getting only 4-6. And days when it was the other way around. It happens. Snowfall can vary a lot over just a few miles.

 

[PatriotJohn]

What you have to realize that with regards to a major storm, a differencein 20-30 miles in a storm track can be a difference in getting 1-2" versus 5-7". And a lot of times the track of a storm or low pressure system cannot be nailed down until it is only a few hours away. This is not an excuse, but a meteorological fact.

BIG WEATHER apologist.

Not at all...it's my profession, and I am just trying to educate the masses about the reality of forecasting.

 

[Kilgore Trout]

In the fear of crashing the server knowing how many times the "forecast" is wrong, figured it was time for a thread..

Last nights 9pm news:

"Tomorrow we will have a quick snow event in the morning.. One to three inches at most"

Fast forward to 4am - Winter Storm warning

THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE IN TWIN CITIES/CHANHASSEN HAS ISSUEDA WINTER STORM WARNING FOR HEAVY SNOW...WHICH IS IN EFFECT FROM 5AM TO NOON CST THURSDAY.* TIMING...SNOW WILL BEGIN AROUND 4 OR 5 AM AND QUICKLY BECOME HEAVY BY 6 AM. THE HEAVY SNOW WILL PERSIST THROUGH THE ENTIRE MORNING RUSH HOUR BEFORE TAPERING OFF IN THE MID TO LATE MORNING.* SNOW ACCUMULATION...4 TO 6 INCHES...WITH LOCALLY HIGHER TOTALS POSSIBLE.

Forecasting out a couple of days fine.. crap shoot.. we get it..

But this big of a swing & a miss in 7 hours??

This isn't a "big swing & a miss", but when it comes to snow, it tends to effect people more. Taking the median, they were predicting 2 inches of snow and then later had to up the forecast to 5 inches. Conservatively, this is the difference between a forecast of 0.2 inches of liquid and instead receiving 0.5 inches of liquid. If this were rain, you wouldn't have even noticed that the forecast was off. Precipitation, and particularly, where it falls is the most difficult thing to accurately predict. These types of things get amplified when it comes to snow and its effects on travel (see Atlanta).

 

[Kilgore Trout]

Back in December we had a day where they were calling for less than an inch of snow. The forecast never even updated until well into the event, but we ended up with over 9 inches in about 4 hours. It was total chaos.

That was a Sunday and a large part of the country saw it happen as the Eagles had like a foot of snow on their field and were totally unprepared to deal with it.

So yeah, from under an inch to 9-10 inches and the forecast never even updated. Horrible.

Just shows you how much we still don't understand about weather.

Yes, this may be closer to a 'big bust', but again, these things are very difficult to accurately model. But it doesn't have much to do with "not understanding" the weather. Computer models are pretty good for what they are, but you have to understand that they are working with very limited input data. Upper air observations are only taken twice a day, and those stations are located sometimes hundreds of miles apart. If the government wanted to invest in a vast network of ground and upper air observations in a very tight grid, that included the pacific ocean and Canada, then these kind of big busts would happen less frequently.

 

[pollardsvision]

In the fear of crashing the server knowing how many times the "forecast" is wrong, figured it was time for a thread..

Last nights 9pm news:

"Tomorrow we will have a quick snow event in the morning.. One to three inches at most"

Fast forward to 4am - Winter Storm warning

THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE IN TWIN CITIES/CHANHASSEN HAS ISSUED

A WINTER STORM WARNING FOR HEAVY SNOW...WHICH IS IN EFFECT FROM 5

AM TO NOON CST THURSDAY.

* TIMING...SNOW WILL BEGIN AROUND 4 OR 5 AM AND QUICKLY BECOME

HEAVY BY 6 AM. THE HEAVY SNOW WILL PERSIST THROUGH THE ENTIRE

MORNING RUSH HOUR BEFORE TAPERING OFF IN THE MID TO LATE

MORNING.

* SNOW ACCUMULATION...4 TO 6 INCHES...WITH LOCALLY HIGHER TOTALS

POSSIBLE.

Forecasting out a couple of days fine.. crap shoot.. we get it..

But this big of a swing & a miss in 7 hours??

This isn't a "big swing & a miss", but when it comes to snow, it tends to effect people more. Taking the median, they were predicting 2 inches of snow and then later had to up the forecast to 5 inches. Conservatively, this is the difference between a forecast of 0.2 inches of liquid and instead receiving 0.5 inches of liquid. If this were rain, you wouldn't have even noticed that the forecast was off. Precipitation, and particularly, where it falls is the most difficult thing to accurately predict. These types of things get amplified when it comes to snow and its effects on travel (see Atlanta).

Yeah, that one doesn't seem like a big deal.

"They" said it would snow, and it did. Seems pretty good to me.

I assumed the OP story ended with no snowfall for inclusion here.

 

[snogger]

Plows weren't ready for this storm.. here is a look at my road as of 11:30am..

So glad I'm working from home today!!

 

[snogger]

In the fear of crashing the server knowing how many times the "forecast" is wrong, figured it was time for a thread..

Last nights 9pm news:

"Tomorrow we will have a quick snow event in the morning.. One to three inches at most"

Fast forward to 4am - Winter Storm warning

THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE IN TWIN CITIES/CHANHASSEN HAS ISSUED

A WINTER STORM WARNING FOR HEAVY SNOW...WHICH IS IN EFFECT FROM 5

AM TO NOON CST THURSDAY.

* TIMING...SNOW WILL BEGIN AROUND 4 OR 5 AM AND QUICKLY BECOME

HEAVY BY 6 AM. THE HEAVY SNOW WILL PERSIST THROUGH THE ENTIRE

MORNING RUSH HOUR BEFORE TAPERING OFF IN THE MID TO LATE

MORNING.

* SNOW ACCUMULATION...4 TO 6 INCHES...WITH LOCALLY HIGHER TOTALS

POSSIBLE.

Forecasting out a couple of days fine.. crap shoot.. we get it..

But this big of a swing & a miss in 7 hours??

This isn't a "big swing & a miss", but when it comes to snow, it tends to effect people more. Taking the median, they were predicting 2 inches of snow and then later had to up the forecast to 5 inches. Conservatively, this is the difference between a forecast of 0.2 inches of liquid and instead receiving 0.5 inches of liquid. If this were rain, you wouldn't have even noticed that the forecast was off. Precipitation, and particularly, where it falls is the most difficult thing to accurately predict. These types of things get amplified when it comes to snow and its effects on travel (see Atlanta).

Yeah, that one doesn't seem like a big deal.

"They" said it would snow, and it did. Seems pretty good to me.

I assumed the OP story ended with no snowfall for inclusion here.

right now we are at 7" and it is still snowing.... As my previous post pointed out, the local plow crew wasn't "on alert" as they normally would be with sufficient warning, so roads around here are like parking lots.. Glad I'm not out there.