Houston WRs… how will this play out? (1 Viewer)

[eoMMan]

What are your thoughts on the Houston WRs? How are you drafting them?

It’s obvious that Stroud has an awesome group of guys to throw too. Collins established himself as a great (dare I say elite ish) WR last year and Tank Dell definitely over achieved his rookie draft status. Throw in an established former #1 receiver like Diggs (plus a good receiving TE) and whoa… defenses will how their hands full. I guess what I’m wondering is…

1. With Diggs in town, will Collins and Dell’s numbers take a hit with less targets?

2. Will Diggs start up with his diva like antics and cause stress to Stroud?

3. Collins is still the #1 WR to own there but by how much? Is it Collin’s/Diggs/Dell or Collins/Dell/Diggs?

 

[kyoun1e]

Good topic.

I still think Nico is the #1 here. Maybe less target volume, but the quality of targets he gets could be great. I'm targeting him late 2nd/early third in PPR.

I'm fading Diggs. The guy couldn't get the ball for like 10 straight games last year. Not sure what it is. He either checked out or maybe he's hitting the cliff.

Would rather take a shot at Dell over Diggs. Dell was a monster before going down with an injury.

 

[socrates]

Houston no doubt has an embarrassment of riches at wideout. Often, injuries have a way of working these things out; hopefully, that is not the case here.

My thoughts:

1. C.J. Stroud is set up for a fantastic sophomore campaign.
2. Nico Collins remains the Alpha in this crowded room, but it makes sense that his numbers could dip, nonetheless.
3. Stefon Diggs will benefit by drawing less attention, but his days of being one of the elite receivers in the league appear to be over. If he will accept his role without a bruised ego affecting his performance, he should have some big games.
4. Tank Dell's target numbers will likely take a bit of a hit, but that is not necessarily a bad thing if it helps him stay on the field.

The Texans are poised to post huge numbers. Buckle up!

 

[efactor]

I’m most surprised that people expect Collins to be that much more productive than Dell this year. Collins going around the 2/3 turn and Dell going mid to late 5th. I guess the fact that Collins is more the prototypical size alpha WR, but the game has changed. Like 7/11, Dell is always open and Stroud loves the guy, actively campaigning for the Texans to draft him last year. Injury was a fluke when the Texans decided having a midget WR blocking inside at the goal line was a good idea.

I really like Collins too, but they shouldn’t be drafted this far apart and wouldn’t be shocked if Dell puts up the better FF numbers.

 

[BIRDGANG52]

I just figured that Stefon Diggs stole Tank Dell's job / targets. Nico Collins is the alpha male, but if Tank somehow out targets Stefon Diggs, I don't think that's something he is going to handle well. People can say that players change, but we know Stefon is used to being a superstar and will get pouty face if he doesn't get the ball.


Then again, I am also seeing that Stefon Diggs and the Texans voided the final 3 years of his Buffalo Bills deal making him a Free Agent for next season? They traded a 2nd Round pick to get him, that's a decent amount of equity to give up for a one-year rental. Heck, they might be a piece away but I'd imagine that Stefon is going to want to pad those stats to get a big contract next year from "somebody".

Sources: Texans to let Diggs be free agent in '25

The Texans wiped out the final three years on Stefon Diggs' contract, giving him the ability to become a free agent after this season, sources told ESPN's Adam Schefter.

www.espn.com

 

[KellysHeroes]

I'm seeing Diggs and Collins as 1a and 1b, its going to be super difficult to cover all those options. I would be happy with either one of them but i got Collins slightly higher

 

[Houston turmOiler]

Stroud is tight with Dell and absolutely loves him as a receiver. How it all plays out is anyone's guess, but I'd be just fine letting Nico and Diggs go earlier and getting Tank a little later. He's going to make his share of big plays, and Stroud certainly isn't going to forget about him. I think Stroud works to keep them all happy and those three end up somewhat close to each other, so I like Dell at the value. JMHO....

 

[Banger]

I’m most surprised that people expect Collins to be that much more productive than Dell this year. Collins going around the 2/3 turn and Dell going mid to late 5th. I guess the fact that Collins is more the prototypical size alpha WR, but the game has changed. Like 7/11, Dell is always open and Stroud loves the guy, actively campaigning for the Texans to draft him last year. Injury was a fluke when the Texans decided having a midget WR blocking inside at the goal line was a good idea.

I really like Collins too, but they shouldn’t be drafted this far apart and wouldn’t be shocked if Dell puts up the better FF numbers.

This is my exact take as well. Last year when both were healthy they scored almost identical points. The Diggs situation clouds things but Dell is nearly uncoverable with his speed and quickness and he and Stroud seem to have a strong connection. For the value, Dell is definitely the better pick over Nico IMO. I honestly don't have a strong take on Diggs but the bottom line is that I want a piece of this passing offense.

 

[jm192]

There's another thread on this where I posted several thoughts.

In the other thread, people said "Well, we really don't know how Houston plans to use them." We don't really know much of anything. But we can make logical predictions based off the information we have.

short version:

Nico is a true X receiver. Diggs does not affect Nico. Nico will see 100% of the WR snaps. Nico had the explosive end to the season and the gawdy overall #'s. He's the biggest and best red zone target. He is and should be their highest drafted WR.

Diggs and Dell can both play outside or the slot. Diggs probably has some effect on the % of snaps Dell sees. Maybe Dell still sees 90% of the snaps. That's still less than Nico. I've still got Dell around WR22-24. If you're getting him past that, he's a value.

As far as Diggs: I think Diggs is good enough to eat into Dell's opportunities. I think he's a good real life WR for a team with other good options. I think we saw a real decline in the 2nd half of last season. A red flag if nothing else. I want zero part of the guy at cost. I've got him closer to WR36. I have zero shares across 30 best ball leagues and 10 or 12 redraft leagues.

Maybe he shocks me and blows up. I'll be fine being wrong on it.

 

[Biabreakable]

I think Stefon Diggs is the truth. He is always open. I expect him to earn the most targets and receptions for the Texans in 2024.

Some say they think Diggs has lost a step. I will believe it when I see it. He will be 31 years old in November and I think Diggs will want to prove he isn't done and play his heart out.

Diggs can play any WR position. I think all incumbents lose targets to him.

What Nico Collins did last season is good but Diggs has outperformed that 3 out of 4 of the last 4 seasons.

2023 is being looked at as a disappointment for Diggs and reason to wonder if he is declining but it was still about the same as what Collins did last season.

I think pop psychology about alpha male dominance stems from a completely inaccurate study on wolves that really misinterpreted the dynamics of pack relationships as subsequent studies have shown.

I see no reason to think Collins will earn more targets than Diggs when he has never done so before. Diggs has had 149 targets or more in 5 of his 8 career seasons.

 

[Scoresman]

I think Stefon Diggs is the truth. He is always open. I expect him to earn the most targets and receptions for the Texans in 2024.

Some say they think Diggs has lost a step. I will believe it when I see it. He will be 31 years old in November and I think Diggs will want to prove he isn't done and play his heart out.

Diggs can play any WR position. I think all incumbents lose targets to him.

What Nico Collins did last season is good but Diggs has outperformed that 3 out of 4 of the last 4 seasons.

2023 is being looked at as a disappointment for Diggs and reason to wonder if he is declining but it was still about the same as what Collins did last season.

I think pop psychology about alpha male dominance stems from a completely inaccurate study on wolves that really misinterpreted the dynamics of pack relationships as subsequent studies have shown.

I see no reason to think Collins will earn more targets than Diggs when he has never done so before. Diggs has had 149 targets or more in 5 of his 8 career seasons.

Did you not see it with the rest of us in the second half of last year?

 

[massraider]

Did you not see it with the rest of us in the second half of last year?

Last year when he caught a hundred balls?

https://www.nytimes.com/athletic/5691325/2024/08/09/stefon-diggs-attitude-houston-texans/

 

[kyoun1e]

Did you not see it with the rest of us in the second half of last year?

Last year when he caught a hundred balls?

https://www.nytimes.com/athletic/5691325/2024/08/09/stefon-diggs-attitude-houston-texans/

Well, it seemed to be the tale of two seasons all in one season.

He tore it up early in the first six games and then his production tanked ...11 straight games with under 100 yards receiving.

He seemed to be doing a whole lot more b*tching on the sideline than making meaningful plays as the year progressed.

Not sure if it was because he knew he was a goner anyway and was just mailing it in or if he had indeed lost a step. I guess we'll find out.

 

[massraider]

Well, it seemed to be the tale of two seasons all in one season.

He tore it up early in the first six games and then his production tanked ...11 straight games with under 100 yards receiving.

He seemed to be doing a whole lot more b*tching on the sideline than making meaningful plays as the year progressed.

Not sure if it was because he knew he was a goner anyway and was just mailing it in or if he had indeed lost a step. I guess we'll find out.

Kinda skipping past the part where they changed OCs.

At any rate, everything from HOU is happy and healthy, so maybe he has lost a step, but I ain't going by someone looking at numbers from second half of the season.

Did he lose a step, is he slower? OK, show me. Nothing this summer says he's suddenly not good.

In camp, it's he and Nico in 2WR sets---already. Tank is 3rd man.

 

[Jamesinaz]

Please excuse me if I display ignorance here. I am baffled trying to figure out this pecking order but I think some of the targets discussed are missing from 2023. From ESPN the target order in 2023 was:

Nico 109
Schultz 88
Woods 75
Dell 75
Brown 55
Singletary 38
Metchie III 30

Isn't it possible that most of the targets to Diggs come at the expense of Woods, Brown and Schultz? Stroud seems capable and eager to push the ball downfield and with this group of WRs hard to see all of them covered often. I can see this years target rate something like:

Nico 109
Diggs 90
Schultz 84
Dell 80
Brown 35
Singletary 35

Hey, I play FF but I'm not an educated student of the game so set me straight if I'm seeing something unlikely to happen.

 

[Scoresman]

Well, it seemed to be the tale of two seasons all in one season.

He tore it up early in the first six games and then his production tanked ...11 straight games with under 100 yards receiving.

He seemed to be doing a whole lot more b*tching on the sideline than making meaningful plays as the year progressed.

Not sure if it was because he knew he was a goner anyway and was just mailing it in or if he had indeed lost a step. I guess we'll find out.

Kinda skipping past the part where they changed OCs.

At any rate, everything from HOU is happy and healthy, so maybe he has lost a step, but I ain't going by someone looking at numbers from second half of the season.

Did he lose a step, is he slower? OK, show me. Nothing this summer says he's suddenly not good.

In camp, it's he and Nico in 2WR sets---already. Tank is 3rd man.

Being third in pecking order behind Tank and Nico does not equate to "not good". That said, he has a number of things going against him. His competition is younger and on the rise. Has he lost a step? His decline at the end of last year may suggest it, or maybe the change of OC, but it's more than likely a little of both.

He may or may not have lost a step but he's heading in that direction. Nico and Tank also have a year of rapport built with Stroud. If I'm coaching the Texans, I see no reason to shake this up and give Nico and Tank a disproportionate amount of Targets for the sake of an aging Diggs.

 

[Scoresman]

Has he lost a step?

Diggs’ 10.7 yards per catch, 67.5% catch rate, and 1.76 yards per route run last year all fell well below his career averages.

Last year, among 92 WRs with 40+ targets, Diggs ranked
- 20th in Pro Football Focus receiving grade
- 27th in yards per route run (1.99)
- 56th in average target depth (10.8).

Those are all well below both Nico and Tank.

Among those same WRs, Diggs was 41st in average separation yards (2.8) per NFL Next Gen Stats.

 

[ZWK]

Probably this will be a good passing offense.

If any of the 3 WRs miss time, then the other 2 can get plenty of snaps & targets. And probably they won't all manage to stay healthy all year.

Dell currently looks to be the odd man out in 2 WR sets, based on preseason usage, though that could change over the course of the season.

Diggs is the one where I have the most doubts about his current talent level, based on his age and signs of decline last year.

I have Diggs and Dell close in value for this season, leaning Dell in formats that put a lot of weight on the fantasy playoffs but Diggs for season long total points. "Talent often wins out" and "whoever is healthy will probably face less competition for snaps & targets" matter more for week 17 than for week 1.

 

[InDitkaWeTrust]

Please excuse me if I display ignorance here. I am baffled trying to figure out this pecking order but I think some of the targets discussed are missing from 2023. From ESPN the target order in 2023 was:

Nico 109
Schultz 88
Woods 75
Dell 75
Brown 55
Singletary 38
Metchie III 30

Isn't it possible that most of the targets to Diggs come at the expense of Woods, Brown and Schultz? Stroud seems capable and eager to push the ball downfield and with this group of WRs hard to see all of them covered often. I can see this years target rate something like:

Nico 109
Diggs 90
Schultz 84
Dell 80
Brown 35
Singletary 35

Hey, I play FF but I'm not an educated student of the game so set me straight if I'm seeing something unlikely to happen.

I don't think you're far off, but I expect Metchie III to get 40+ targets as well.

 

[InDitkaWeTrust]

Probably this will be a good passing offense.

If any of the 3 WRs miss time, then the other 2 can get plenty of snaps & targets. And probably they won't all manage to stay healthy all year.
Dell currently looks to be the odd man out in 2 WR sets, based on preseason usage, though that could change over the course of the season.

Diggs is the one where I have the most doubts about his current talent level, based on his age and signs of decline last year.

I have Diggs and Dell close in value for this season, leaning Dell in formats that put a lot of weight on the fantasy playoffs but Diggs for season long total points. "Talent often wins out" and "whoever is healthy will probably face less competition for snaps & targets" matter more for week 17 than for week 1.

Interestingly, Texas played 11 personnel (3WR, 1RB, 1TE) about 2/3 of the time last year. For reference, LAR lined up in 11 personnel 99% of their snaps. IF Texas increases their percentage into the 80s, I expect there will be plenty of targets for all 3 receivers. Still, I expect Nico to lead the team in targets in the 110 range, and Diggs/Dell to be in the 80 range. Make no mistake, Nico is the alpha in this offense.

 

[Major]

Houston homer here. I think Dell represents the best value ADP wise. If your league rewards long TDs he's a no brainer. I am worried about the fragility of both Dell and Nico though. If one of them goes down which is a high probability, Diggs will feast. I'd be targeting all three but most bullish on Tank giving his middle round draft position and long TD prowess.

 

[hamsterdam]

Not saying it’s the cause but I believe there is a correlation with Diggs drop in statistics last year to the change in OC from Dorsey to Brady in week 9 iirc.

 

[Scoresman]

Not saying it’s the cause but I believe there is a correlation with Diggs drop in statistics last year to the change in OC from Dorsey to Brady in week 9 iirc.

It's likely both this and his age contributed. The change in OC doesn't explain a terrible separation yards stat or some of the other stats he declined in.

 

[Biabreakable]

I think Stefon Diggs is the truth. He is always open. I expect him to earn the most targets and receptions for the Texans in 2024.

Some say they think Diggs has lost a step. I will believe it when I see it. He will be 31 years old in November and I think Diggs will want to prove he isn't done and play his heart out.

Diggs can play any WR position. I think all incumbents lose targets to him.

What Nico Collins did last season is good but Diggs has outperformed that 3 out of 4 of the last 4 seasons.

2023 is being looked at as a disappointment for Diggs and reason to wonder if he is declining but it was still about the same as what Collins did last season.

I think pop psychology about alpha male dominance stems from a completely inaccurate study on wolves that really misinterpreted the dynamics of pack relationships as subsequent studies have shown.

I see no reason to think Collins will earn more targets than Diggs when he has never done so before. Diggs has had 149 targets or more in 5 of his 8 career seasons.

Did you not see it with the rest of us in the second half of last year?

Nope.

I didn't watch many Bills games though.

I've just been following Diggs his whole career.

It will be interesting to me to see how well Josh Allen performs without him.

 

[Biabreakable]

Please excuse me if I display ignorance here. I am baffled trying to figure out this pecking order but I think some of the targets discussed are missing from 2023. From ESPN the target order in 2023 was:

Nico 109
Schultz 88
Woods 75
Dell 75
Brown 55
Singletary 38
Metchie III 30

Isn't it possible that most of the targets to Diggs come at the expense of Woods, Brown and Schultz? Stroud seems capable and eager to push the ball downfield and with this group of WRs hard to see all of them covered often. I can see this years target rate something like:

Nico 109
Diggs 90
Schultz 84
Dell 80
Brown 35
Singletary 35

Hey, I play FF but I'm not an educated student of the game so set me straight if I'm seeing something unlikely to happen.

That is a fine guess expecting things to be the same as last season a fine place to start but given Stroud was a rookie last season I would expect to see some improvement, likely in the form of higher completion % and other efficiency statistics.

When Diggs went to Buffalo Josh Allen's efficiency stats improved significantly.

So 2 reasons to think Stroud improves from last season.

Devin Singletary is with the Giants now. The Texans have Joe Mixon now. Maybe those targets are similar? I tend to think Mixon is a bit better receiver option than Singletary.

Stefon Diggs has a career average of 8.7 targets per game with 2 different teams and several different QBs.

That is 147 targets over 17 games.

It's a 60 target difference. That's a 40% decrease.

Seems like too much.

 

[Jamesinaz]

What I'm feeling from this thread is Nico is still the alpha target here and could easily repeat last year.

 

[BobbyLayne]

I’ll be targeting Nico & Tank - have them WR13 & WR19

I have Pittman (the other wideout I’m out of sync with consensus) & Diggs at WR24/WR25, basically DND

full PPR redraft

 

[JerryK]

Diggs should eventually be in the Hall of Fame. He has been an elite receiver. But Houston made a mistake signing him.

He has lost a step. A one year rental that cost you a second round pick and a bushel of cash? Really?

And the biggest concern is the “me-me-me” personality disorder that he has raised to disturbing levels. Can’t wait for the “Let’s scream at Stroud on the sidelines because it’s the 4th quarter and I only have two catches for 16 yards (even though we’re up 14).” And he won’t have any problem with Nico, Stroud, Dell, Schultz, Mixon, etc., crowding him out of the spotlight.

Nothing wrong with picking up another good receiver but this is the wrong guy. Houston has a competent offense that could be superb in the very near future. No egomaniacs needed.

 

[Jayded]

Fellow Houston homer and agree with Major. I’ll add that not only do I suggest targeting Dell at his ADP, but picture he now draws CB3 on the other side.

Tank will likely the most inconsistent week to week, but I think he’ll finish close in point total to Collins. I think Diggs steals more of Collins’ consistency and just means Collins’ weekly total is slightly less than it’d have been.

 

[Timmay]

As a Nico owner last year, I have a man crush on him, however the Texans weapons were a little frustrating to start every week until Dell went down with injury last year. Stroud spreads the ball around so much (Im looking at you Noah Brown and Dalton Schultz) and now we can add Diggs into the mix making Nico a tough price tag to swallow this year. I think Dell is the option to go with for the 5th-6th ADP right now.

 

[steelcityman]

Diggs is over, he'll take targets from the 2 good WRs, but by mid season he;ll be a 4-40 guy and non startable in any format.
Collins and Diggs will be the big dogs. They are just the 2 best options, and Stroud isnt stupid.

 

[pinkstapler]

Diggs should eventually be in the Hall of Fame. He has been an elite receiver. But Houston made a mistake signing him.

He has lost a step. A one year rental that cost you a second round pick and a bushel of cash? Really?

And the biggest concern is the “me-me-me” personality disorder that he has raised to disturbing levels. Can’t wait for the “Let’s scream at Stroud on the sidelines because it’s the 4th quarter and I only have two catches for 16 yards (even though we’re up 14).” And he won’t have any problem with Nico, Stroud, Dell, Schultz, Mixon, etc., crowding him out of the spotlight.

Nothing wrong with picking up another good receiver but this is the wrong guy. Houston has a competent offense that could be superb in the very near future. No egomaniacs needed.

This feels like a regurgitated take that I've yet to ever seen backed up. His entire tenure in Buffalo the only times I saw him doing any of this kind of stuff was when they were losing games. Never saw him, or seen any evidence of him, frustrated or complaining about targets in games they were winning/won.

Only thing I don't love about Diggs for this season is his current ADP on Sleeper feels slightly high at WR16 and 32 overall. I like him much better and comfortably take him where FBG and others have him ranked around WR22 and 40 overall. Any draft I've been in where he falls past the third round he's been a target of mine or wound up on my roster.

If he's slipped anywhere talent wise, metrics would indicate it's the long game/down the field. I think he could easily transition to more of a flanker/slot, similar to guys like Larry Fitz and what he did in the latter stages of his career, and extend his career for several years based on his technical route running ability alone (where we saw little to no dip in his success rates vs both man and zone coverages). Still 100% capable of being an elite performer in those areas both in real life and fantasy football. This also fits in perfectly with the Texans current roster and the strengths of their other two WRs, Nico and Tank.

 

[Rubi]

Collins is #1 for me. Fantasy wise he's the "safe" choice of the three. I think his floor is the highest.
Dell I think will have some "persona non grata" games but will have weeks where he explodes.
Diggs will let everyone know he's not getting the ball enough so after a game or two of low production put him in your lineup.
I wouldn't hesitate to take Collins if he's there for me early on,say late second.
If I miss him I would take Dell later,say 5th
Diggs would b my third choice of the three

 

[Jacob's Ladder]

Diggs feels like last year's Mike Evans. Forgotten superstar. That type value. Of the three, redraft or keeper at that price, give me Diggs every time.

 

[Scoresman]

Diggs feels like last year's Mike Evans. Forgotten superstar. That type value. Of the three, redraft or keeper at that price, give me Diggs every time.

Except Evans didn't have Nico Collins and Tank Dell to compete with for Targets. Kind of a big deal and not at all like Evans' situation.

 

[Jacob's Ladder]

Diggs feels like last year's Mike Evans. Forgotten superstar. That type value. Of the three, redraft or keeper at that price, give me Diggs every time.

Except Evans didn't have Nico Collins and Tank Dell to compete with for Targets. Kind of a big deal and not at all like Evans' situation.

You’re right, Godwin, Palmer, Otton and White who caught 64 balls as a RB were trash and no competition for targets whatsoever…

FWIW Godwin, Otton and White had more combined catches than Nico, Dalton and Singletary did.

 

[Scoresman]

Diggs feels like last year's Mike Evans. Forgotten superstar. That type value. Of the three, redraft or keeper at that price, give me Diggs every time.

Except Evans didn't have Nico Collins and Tank Dell to compete with for Targets. Kind of a big deal and not at all like Evans' situation.

You’re right, Godwin, Palmer, Otton and White who caught 64 balls as a RB were trash and no competition for targets whatsoever…

FWIW Godwin, Otton and White had more combined catches than Nico, Dalton and Singletary did.

If you think Tampa’s passing offense is comparable to Houston’s I’d love to be drafting in a league with you.

 

[Jacob's Ladder]

Diggs feels like last year's Mike Evans. Forgotten superstar. That type value. Of the three, redraft or keeper at that price, give me Diggs every time.

Except Evans didn't have Nico Collins and Tank Dell to compete with for Targets. Kind of a big deal and not at all like Evans' situation.

You’re right, Godwin, Palmer, Otton and White who caught 64 balls as a RB were trash and no competition for targets whatsoever…

FWIW Godwin, Otton and White had more combined catches than Nico, Dalton and Singletary did.

If you think Tampa’s passing offense is comparable to Houston’s I’d love to be drafting in a league with you.

I'd love it too. Are you serious lol? Can we talk about who'd win in a fight too? What about dad vs dad? Mom vs mom?

Being serious for a minute, Baker Mayfield threw for 4,044 yards and 28 TDs last season. Stroud threw for 4,108 yards and 23 TDs. I'm sorry, I'm not seeing a huge difference. We've already covered the individual performances of the receivers and RBs. Where's the major difference here? Please explain.

 

[Scoresman]

Diggs feels like last year's Mike Evans. Forgotten superstar. That type value. Of the three, redraft or keeper at that price, give me Diggs every time.

Except Evans didn't have Nico Collins and Tank Dell to compete with for Targets. Kind of a big deal and not at all like Evans' situation.

You’re right, Godwin, Palmer, Otton and White who caught 64 balls as a RB were trash and no competition for targets whatsoever…

FWIW Godwin, Otton and White had more combined catches than Nico, Dalton and Singletary did.

If you think Tampa’s passing offense is comparable to Houston’s I’d love to be drafting in a league with you.

I'd love it too. Are you serious lol? Can we talk about who'd win in a fight too? What about dad vs dad? Mom vs mom?

Being serious for a minute, Baker Mayfield threw for 4,044 yards and 28 TDs last season. Stroud threw for 4,108 yards and 23 TDs. I'm sorry, I'm not seeing a huge difference. We've already covered the individual performances of the receivers and RBs. Where's the major difference here? Please explain.

It's about the competition for targets within the passing offense, not the totals. You will never convince me that Evans' target competition is on the same level as Diggs' to warrant a direct comparison.

They both might be forgotten superstars as you say, but their situations are very different.

 

[Biabreakable]

[QUOTE="Jacob's Ladder]

Being serious for a minute, Baker Mayfield threw for 4,044 yards and 28 TDs last season. Stroud threw for 4,108 yards and 23 TDs. I'm sorry, I'm not seeing a huge difference. We've already covered the individual performances of the receivers and RBs. Where's the major difference here? Please explain.
[/QUOTE]

I can't answer the point scoresman was trying to make but I think I do follow it. Teams make trades because of how it helps their cap and future cap plans, and teams will give a small price to secure the rights to these players in trade instead of competing for their services in free agency. Even when every team knows that player will likely be released, which of course drives the price down.

RB are not worth much in the NFL these days.

As far as your question many people including myself think Stroud will improve his performance numbers going into his 2nd season.

Mayfield had a good year with Tampa no doubt but I don't expect him to improve as much as Stroud could at this stage of their careers.

FWIW Mike Clay has Stroud throwing for more yards and TD than Mayfield in 2024. I am guessing a lot of projections do.

 

[Jacob's Ladder]

[QUOTE="Jacob's Ladder]

Being serious for a minute, Baker Mayfield threw for 4,044 yards and 28 TDs last season. Stroud threw for 4,108 yards and 23 TDs. I'm sorry, I'm not seeing a huge difference. We've already covered the individual performances of the receivers and RBs. Where's the major difference here? Please explain.

I can't answer the point scoresman was trying to make but I think I do follow it. Teams make trades because of how it helps their cap and future cap plans, and teams will give a small price to secure the rights to these players in trade instead of competing for their services in free agency. Even when every team knows that player will likely be released, which of course drives the price down.

RB are not worth much in the NFL these days.

As far as your question many people including myself think Stroud will improve his performance numbers going into his 2nd season.

Mayfield had a good year with Tampa no doubt but I don't expect him to improve as much as Stroud could at this stage of their careers.

FWIW Mike Clay has Stroud throwing for more yards and TD than Mayfield in 2024. I am guessing a lot of projections do.
[/QUOTE]

Predictions are wrong more often than not. Prognosticators like Clay create value in a draft for those willing to think outside of the box .

 

[Ghost Rider]

The obvious worry here is that Diggs messes up the great chemistry that Stroud had last year with Collins and Dell, both of whom may not like it if Diggs all of a sudden is getting the most targets, especially after they had proven their worth. And I worry a little about Diggs being his usual self and getting in Stroud's head and causing the QB to force it to Diggs at times to keep him happy and shut him up. We'll see.

 

[Insein]

Dell.

 

[jabarony]

Pass on all of them at ADP. Stroud falls on his face big time and they all are regrettable picks.

 

[Biabreakable]

Predictions are wrong more often than not. Prognosticators like Clay create value in a draft for those willing to think outside of the box .

Of course they are. I will say that I think a prediction based on projections is at least more informed than a prediction without them.

I brought it up to address your comparison of Strouds passing stats in 2024 to Baker Mayfields. That they may not be the same as 2024. That many people are expecting Strouds numbers to improve as they often do for all players after their rookie season.

There is historic evidence of that happening over generations of QBs in an ever changing NFL.

What's more the Texans have made several upgrades to their team through free agency that should also lead to the teams improvement which of course includes Stroud.

Now maybe not. You never know. Baker Mayfield had a historically good rookie season with the Browns yet did NOT improve in his 2nd season and last year somewhat resurrected his career and opportunity to continue being a starting QB in the NFL.

As far as thinking outside the box? Yes I am advocate of that but if you are going to go against the grain of consensus opinion I think you should have some pretty good reason for that.

Without projections what kind of structure or a box would the prediction be based on?

Looking at ADP https://www.fantasypros.com/nfl/adp/wr.php

Nico Collins is being drafted as the 14th WR and 28th overall.

Stefon Diggs is being drafted as WR 19 and 38th overall.

Google Stefon Diggs. You will see mostly articles saying Diggs will be a bust, that he lost a step and Collins will be the Texans most targeted WR.

I am pushing back against that because I believe Stefon Diggs ---> Nico Collins by a lot.

This is certainly going outside the box of consensus opinion.

 

[Biabreakable]

Most of us have learned that NFL WR break out in their 2nd NFL seasons. That is a lot more common than a WR breaking out in their 3rd or later NFL seasons. It's a bit of an outlier now for it to take until the 3rd season than it was decades ago.

Nico Collins in his sophomore season was only 3rd in targets for the team, taking a backseat to Brandin Cooks and Chris Moore.

If Collins is so great and somehow better than Diggs don't you think that would have shown itself in 2022?

Nico Collins efficiency metrics over a small sample size of 2023 were extremely high and that is likely unsustainable.

What Diggs has done he has done consistently throughout his career and it didn't take him until his 3rd season to break out either.

 

[Biabreakable]

Want to think outside the box? Consider more than just what happened in 2022 when making rankings and projections.

Almost all rankings and ADP you see out there are lazy and fail to do this.

 

[Scoresman]

To me, Occam’s razor applies.

Houston already had a great passing attack last year. Why would they need to rock the boat and completely change their passing attack to accommodate Diggs? Diggs certainly makes an already good pass attack even better and I dont think he will bust, but why mess with the rapport Stroud already developed with his receivers last year?

It just seems far more likely that what was working last year will continue to work, and Diggs will fit in where he can.

 

[Biabreakable]

Why would they need to accommodateDiggs? He does everything well.

In my opinion this is why he will earn the most targets on this team because he is their best WR. A bit more than just fitting in where other receivers are lacking. From what I've read the Texans have great depth at WR right now. They have guys who can fill in.

Diggs is a star.

That isn't disrupting the offense or affecting the current rapport the QB has with the other receivers.

It may help the other receivers be more effective from drawing more defensive attention away from them.

 

[kyoun1e]

Predictions are wrong more often than not. Prognosticators like Clay create value in a draft for those willing to think outside of the box .

Of course they are. I will say that I think a prediction based on projections is at least more informed than a prediction without them.

I brought it up to address your comparison of Strouds passing stats in 2024 to Baker Mayfields. That they may not be the same as 2024. That many people are expecting Strouds numbers to improve as they often do for all players after their rookie season.

There is historic evidence of that happening over generations of QBs in an ever changing NFL.

What's more the Texans have made several upgrades to their team through free agency that should also lead to the teams improvement which of course includes Stroud.

Now maybe not. You never know. Baker Mayfield had a historically good rookie season with the Browns yet did NOT improve in his 2nd season and last year somewhat resurrected his career and opportunity to continue being a starting QB in the NFL.

As far as thinking outside the box? Yes I am advocate of that but if you are going to go against the grain of consensus opinion I think you should have some pretty good reason for that.

Without projections what kind of structure or a box would the prediction be based on?

Looking at ADP https://www.fantasypros.com/nfl/adp/wr.php

Nico Collins is being drafted as the 14th WR and 28th overall.

Stefon Diggs is being drafted as WR 19 and 38th overall.

Google Stefon Diggs. You will see mostly articles saying Diggs will be a bust, that he lost a step and Collins will be the Texans most targeted WR.

I am pushing back against that because I believe Stefon Diggs ---> Nico Collins by a lot.

This is certainly going outside the box of consensus opinion.

Bold take. Have to respect that, but respectfully disagree.

Nico is locked in as the X. He's a 6'4" 215 lb stud with 4.45 speed. And is younger. And has the trust of Stroud. His arrow is pointing up.

Maybe Diggs will be reinvigorated here, but I can't ignore the multi game tailspin last year. There is real risk at his age his best days are behind him.

Could he produce in this offense? Absolutely.

IMHO, it's more probable than not that Nico far outproduces Diggs.