How did Ronnie Brown do it last year? (1 Viewer)

[After the Rain]

I am thinking about how to project guys like Michael Turner this year and keep thinking about how he has a bad o-line and a bad QB situation. My natural conclusion is that he and guys in similar situations won't do much.

Then again, i think about the stretch Ronnie Brown had last year starting in like game 3 until he got hurt. How did he do it with Cleo Lemon at QB and from all reports a bad o-line? To me, that was one of the most surprising things I have seen in FFB in all my time playing. Any thoughts on how he did it? Should we think again about automatically downgrading guys because of their situations?

Again, I remain in a state of confusion and am looking forward to some insights.

 

[awesomeness]

Cam Cameron.

 

[gianmarco]

Cam Cameron.

 

[travdogg]

He got hot.

If he had stayed healthy, I highly doubt he would have been a top-3 RB despite the pace he was on.

Also, Brown is one of the most talented RB's in the NFL(at least pre-ACL.) Quality of team and offense are very important to a RB's production. Occasionally something like Brown last year or LJ in 06' will happen where a back does it essentially by himself by it isn't something to count on because it is tough to identify before it happens.

 

[footballman_696969]

Cam Cameron.

How did Cam Cameron help his YPC go up almost a full yard?

 

[Phurfur]

Cam Cameron.

And this year look for improvment out of Willis McGahee.

 

[gianmarco]

Cam Cameron.

How did Cam Cameron help his YPC go up almost a full yard?

How did Ronnie Brown's talent miraculously just improve after his first 2 yrs in the league?

 

[teamroc]

Cam Cameron.

How did Cam Cameron help his YPC go up almost a full yard?

If I was the Chargers OC, calling plays, you can bet your ### LTs YPC would drop by more then 1. *lol* Bad coaches hurt production, good coaches help it. If you can't understand how a stud offensive mind can help offensive players production, you're in the wrong hobby. Go check out what Norv did with Gore/Alex Smith. Ever heard of system guys? They ran a good system. The offensive scheme is huge.

 

[footballman_696969]

Cam Cameron.

How did Cam Cameron help his YPC go up almost a full yard?

If I was the Chargers OC, calling plays, you can bet your ### LTs YPC would drop by more then 1. *lol* Bad coaches hurt production, good coaches help it. If you can't understand how a stud offensive mind can help offensive players production, you're in the wrong hobby. Go check out what Norv did with Gore/Alex Smith. Ever heard of system guys? They ran a good system. The offensive scheme is huge.

Just like how Brian Billick was a stud offensive mind before he came to Baltimore?

 

[gianmarco]

Cam Cameron.

How did Cam Cameron help his YPC go up almost a full yard?

If I was the Chargers OC, calling plays, you can bet your ### LTs YPC would drop by more then 1. *lol* Bad coaches hurt production, good coaches help it. If you can't understand how a stud offensive mind can help offensive players production, you're in the wrong hobby. Go check out what Norv did with Gore/Alex Smith. Ever heard of system guys? They ran a good system. The offensive scheme is huge.

Just like how Brian Billick was a stud offensive mind before he came to Baltimore?

Ronnie Brown is a talented RB. Is he an elite talent? Well, I personally don't think so and I don't imagine most would, but I'm some do.However, with the #'s he was putting up last year as the #1 RB in FF, he simply isn't THAT good. I'm sorry. If you look at what he did his first 2 yrs and then see a DRASTIC transformation into an uber-stud like he was until he got hurt, you have to ask yourself what changed. Well, the answer is Cameron and he did similar things while in SD. I don't see how you can overlook that. Similar to what Norv Turner has done for RB's and similar to what Martz has done for passing offenses (look at Detroit's IMMEDIATE improvement during his 2 yrs there).

 

[footballman_696969]

Cam Cameron.

How did Cam Cameron help his YPC go up almost a full yard?

How did Ronnie Brown's talent miraculously just improve after his first 2 yrs in the league?

He had the talent the whole time. The guy was the 2nd pick of the draft. Sometimes it takes a RB a couple of years to turn it on. Plus he was battling injuries all throughout 2006.Last year he got the chance to become the focal point of the offense, and did well with his opportunity before he got hurt. He was all the Dolphins had on offense.

 

[BuckeyeArt]

I don't think it was all the magic of Cameron. If you look at his last 8 games of 2006, he went 156-727, around 4.66 ypc. He also had four 100 yard games in that stretch. While I certainly think you can attribute his increased use in the passing game mostly to Cameron, he was already improving as a runner.

 

[FantasyTrader]

I don't think it's as simple as +Cameron/-Cameron. I agree with the idea that Cam had a little to do with it, but Ronnie's improvement as a RB factored in as well.

 

[BuckeyeArt]

If he had stayed healthy, I highly doubt he would have been a top-3 RB despite the pace he was on.

Prior to his injury, during the 1st 6 1/2 games, he had 129.1 FP's out of the 135.4 produced by Miami's RB's, or about 95% of the points. After the injury, Miami's RB's (the stellar quintet of Chatman, Booker, Gado, Cobbs, and Williams) went on to produce another 146.4 FP's over the last 9 1/2 games. Do you really think he would not have had another 109.9 points, the amount he needed to finish 3rd? That's only 75% of what his replacements put up. I think he would have reached that easily.

 

[Musesboy]

There's no doubt that Brown did well in that four game stretch, but he did have 108 touches while facing the Jets, Raiders, Texans, and Browns.

Three of his four 100 yard rushing games the season before came against the Jets (twice) and the Colts' backups in Week 17.

 

[BuckeyeArt]

There's no doubt that Brown did well in that four game stretch, but he did have 108 touches while facing the Jets, Raiders, Texans, and Browns.Three of his four 100 yard rushing games the season before came against the Jets (twice) and the Colts' backups in Week 17.

And the 4th was against Chicago. Also, I don't think the Colts would have played their backups on defense and played Manning the whole game on offense. Manning was 28-37-282 that game. No other QB played.

 

[Musesboy]

There's no doubt that Brown did well in that four game stretch, but he did have 108 touches while facing the Jets, Raiders, Texans, and Browns.Three of his four 100 yard rushing games the season before came against the Jets (twice) and the Colts' backups in Week 17.

And the 4th was against Chicago. Also, I don't think the Colts would have played their backups on defense and played Manning the whole game on offense. Manning was 28-37-282 that game. No other QB played.

My mistake.The Colts couldn't stop the run that year though. Ron Dayne had 153/2 the week before; the biggest game of his career.

 

[King of the Jungle]

There's no doubt that Brown did well in that four game stretch, but he did have 108 touches while facing the Jets, Raiders, Texans, and Browns.

Three of his four 100 yard rushing games the season before came against the Jets (twice) and the Colts' backups in Week 17.

 

[gianmarco]

If he had stayed healthy, I highly doubt he would have been a top-3 RB despite the pace he was on.

Prior to his injury, during the 1st 6 1/2 games, he had 129.1 FP's out of the 135.4 produced by Miami's RB's, or about 95% of the points. After the injury, Miami's RB's (the stellar quintet of Chatman, Booker, Gado, Cobbs, and Williams) went on to produce another 146.4 FP's over the last 9 1/2 games. Do you really think he would not have had another 109.9 points, the amount he needed to finish 3rd? That's only 75% of what his replacements put up. I think he would have reached that easily.

I think what you just posted kind of supports the argument against Ronnie's elite production being due to his talent and not being a result of Cameron's schemes and play-calling.Ronnie Brown had 129.1 FP's over 6.5 games = 19.8 FP/game

Other Miami RB's had 146.4 FP's over 9.5 games = 15.4 FP/game

Obviously by your comment, you don't think very highly of Chatman, Booker, Gado, Cobbs, and Williams (and there really is nothing spectacular about them). Yet, they were STILL able to put up a hefty 15.4 FP/game (against tougher opponents as well). 15.4 FP/game over a 16 game season would have totaled 246 fantasy points or good enough for #3 OVERALL among fantasy RB's. Not bad for a group of scrubs.

So, either those are much more talented RB's than we think or maybe a lot of it had to do with the "system" and Cam Cameron. The fact that a committee of career backup RB's (except Ricky who played a handful of plays anyway) could come in and produce at that kind of level with minimal dropoff overall says something. I'm not saying that it was ALL Cameron, but I think many Brown supporters are ignoring the major factor he played in his production last year.

ETA--- (rankings in yds allowed/game)

Ronnie's opponents over 6.5 games -- Wash (4th), Dallas (6th), NYJ (29th), Oak (31st), Houston (19th), Clev (27th), and 1/2 vs. NE (10th). (and vs. Wash and Dallas, he had 32 and 33 yds rushing respectively and 0 TDs)

Other Miami RB's over 9.5 games -- 1/2 vs. NE (10th), NYG (8th), Buff (25th), Philly (7th), Pitt (3rd), NYJ (29th), Buff (25th), Balt (2nd), NE (10th), Cincy (21st)

Ronnie got to run against 4 horrible run defenses (the 4 games he did well in). When he ran against 2 top 10 defenses in yds allowed, he was miserable. On the other hand, his counterparts had to face 6 top 10 defenses (counting NE twice) over 9.5 games and still managed a fantastic FP/game.

 

[Banger]

The big difference between Brown last year and prior years wasn't really the rushing it was his receiving stats. Yes his YPC was better but in his few games (7) he ran against 3 of the worst defenses in the league (and beat up on them big time) and a below avg rush defense. Against good defenses (3) he averaged 3.6 ypc (47 yrds/game) and 0 tds, against the bad defenses he ran for 5.76 ypc and 4 tds.

The REAL difference in his stats and the thing that made him so valuable was his MUCH improved receiving stats. In his 7 games he had 39-389-1. In 2007, his receiving stats were 33-276 in 13 games and in '06 they were 32-232-1 in 17 games. So anyone saying that Cam's impact wasn't dramatic wasn't watching. Will the next OC use him in the same receiving capacity as Cam did? That's the big question and that will determine if he'll be a good RB, like he'd been in prior years, or a top RB.

Jamal Lewis last year ran for 5.12 ypc in 8 games vs. poor defenses (189-968) and 3.6 in 7 games vs. good defenses (93-336). R. Brown = Jamal rush wise, the difference is the receiving. If the new OC doesn't feature R. Brown and force feed him the ball, Brown ends up being a a good, not great RB. His receiving numbers extrapolated were 89-900. Those are LT type numbers and guess who his OC was, LT's old OC.

 

[wraith5]

The big difference between Brown last year and prior years wasn't really the rushing it was his receiving stats. Yes his YPC was better but in his few games (7) he ran against 3 of the worst defenses in the league (and beat up on them big time) and a below avg rush defense. Against good defenses (3) he averaged 3.6 ypc (47 yrds/game) and 0 tds, against the bad defenses he ran for 5.76 ypc and 4 tds.The REAL difference in his stats and the thing that made him so valuable was his MUCH improved receiving stats. In his 7 games he had 39-389-1. In 2007, his receiving stats were 33-276 in 13 games and in '06 they were 32-232-1 in 17 games. So anyone saying that Cam's impact wasn't dramatic wasn't watching. Will the next OC use him in the same receiving capacity as Cam did? That's the big question and that will determine if he'll be a good RB, like he'd been in prior years, or a top RB.Jamal Lewis last year ran for 5.12 ypc in 8 games vs. poor defenses (189-968) and 3.6 in 7 games vs. good defenses (93-336). R. Brown = Jamal rush wise, the difference is the receiving. If the new OC doesn't feature R. Brown and force feed him the ball, Brown ends up being a a good, not great RB. His receiving numbers extrapolated were 89-900. Those are LT type numbers and guess who his OC was, LT's old OC.

 

[gregjcross]

Cam Cameron.

How did Cam Cameron help his YPC go up almost a full yard?

If I was the Chargers OC, calling plays, you can bet your ### LTs YPC would drop by more then 1. *lol* Bad coaches hurt production, good coaches help it. If you can't understand how a stud offensive mind can help offensive players production, you're in the wrong hobby. Go check out what Norv did with Gore/Alex Smith. Ever heard of system guys? They ran a good system. The offensive scheme is huge.

Just like how Brian Billick was a stud offensive mind before he came to Baltimore?

Ronnie Brown is a talented RB. Is he an elite talent? Well, I personally don't think so and I don't imagine most would, but I'm some do.However, with the #'s he was putting up last year as the #1 RB in FF, he simply isn't THAT good. I'm sorry. If you look at what he did his first 2 yrs and then see a DRASTIC transformation into an uber-stud like he was until he got hurt, you have to ask yourself what changed. Well, the answer is Cameron and he did similar things while in SD. I don't see how you can overlook that. Similar to what Norv Turner has done for RB's and similar to what Martz has done for passing offenses (look at Detroit's IMMEDIATE improvement during his 2 yrs there).

1) The answer is not only Cameron, its guys like rookie Center Samson Satele coming in and others learning how to block. 2) RB had 0 room his first two years playing with the absolute worst O-line in the league and a bad QB. He would run into their backs and had low TD opportunities, While he isnt O.J. Simpson or Barry Sanders; Brown is a stud talent because of his strength and speed, Cameron 's style certainly didnt hurt either with his pass catching.Watch the tape and tell me differently. It is easy to see the holes opening and him charging through them.

 

[SSOG]

How did he do it with Cleo Lemon at QB and from all reports a bad o-line?

Simple answer is all reports were wrong. That Oline was actually the strength of the team, way better than was expected. With the addition of Jake Long, expect it to get even better still.

 

[bcr8f]

How did he do it with Cleo Lemon at QB and from all reports a bad o-line?

Simple answer is all reports were wrong. That Oline was actually the strength of the team, way better than was expected. With the addition of Jake Long, expect Ricky Williams to get even better still.

Fixed. Last I heard Ricky will start out the PS as the top RB and Ronnie will fill in when healthy.

 

[css2373]

Washington (4th overall rush defense) 11 32 0 6 40 0

Dallas (6th overall rush defense) 11 33 0 2 36 0

NY Jets (29th overall rush defense) 23 112 2 6 99 1

Oakland (31st overall rush defense) 15 134 1 6 73 0

Houston (19th overall rush defense) 23 114 1 5 39 0

Cleveland (27th overall rush defense) 19 101 0 9 69 0

New England (10th overall rush defense) 17 76 0 5 33 0

That's how he did it. Against defenses in the top 10 he averaged 13 carries 47 yards 0 TDs 4 recs 36 yards 0 TDs and against the others, avg 27 against the run, he went 20 carries 115 yards 1TD 7 recs 70 yds 0.25 TDs.

Chipper Jones is hitting over .400 into June...I don't expect him to carry out those number over a full season either.

 

[BuckeyeArt]

Washington (4th overall rush defense) 11 32 0 6 40 0Dallas (6th overall rush defense) 11 33 0 2 36 0NY Jets (29th overall rush defense) 23 112 2 6 99 1Oakland (31st overall rush defense) 15 134 1 6 73 0Houston (19th overall rush defense) 23 114 1 5 39 0Cleveland (27th overall rush defense) 19 101 0 9 69 0New England (10th overall rush defense) 17 76 0 5 33 0That's how he did it. Against defenses in the top 10 he averaged 13 carries 47 yards 0 TDs 4 recs 36 yards 0 TDs and against the others, avg 27 against the run, he went 20 carries 115 yards 1TD 7 recs 70 yds 0.25 TDs.Chipper Jones is hitting over .400 into June...I don't expect him to carry out those number over a full season either.

Don't forget he was also splitting time those first 2 games and he only played a half game against NE. That does skew your stats just a little. The Miami RB's in those games averaged 22 carries for 85 yards and 8 recs for 60 yards. A little different view, isn't it?Everyone seems to want to mention how he did against the crappy defenses. Have you looked at this year's schedule? It's got the same crappy defenses. Miami plays 1 game against a top 5 defense and 5 games against bottom 5 defenses.

 

[Banger]

Washington (4th overall rush defense) 11 32 0 6 40 0Dallas (6th overall rush defense) 11 33 0 2 36 0NY Jets (29th overall rush defense) 23 112 2 6 99 1Oakland (31st overall rush defense) 15 134 1 6 73 0Houston (19th overall rush defense) 23 114 1 5 39 0Cleveland (27th overall rush defense) 19 101 0 9 69 0New England (10th overall rush defense) 17 76 0 5 33 0That's how he did it. Against defenses in the top 10 he averaged 13 carries 47 yards 0 TDs 4 recs 36 yards 0 TDs and against the others, avg 27 against the run, he went 20 carries 115 yards 1TD 7 recs 70 yds 0.25 TDs.Chipper Jones is hitting over .400 into June...I don't expect him to carry out those number over a full season either.

Don't forget he was also splitting time those first 2 games and he only played a half game against NE. That does skew your stats just a little. Everyone seems to want to mention how he did against the crappy defenses. Have you looked at this year's schedule? It's got the same crappy defenses. Miami plays 1 game against a top 5 defense and 5 games against bottom 5 defenses.

everyone plays crappy defenses, he just happened to have them front loaded at the beginning of the year and then got hurt. Then people look at his numbers through 7 games and extrapolate them over the course of 16 games which is a mistake. After the 1st 3 weeks last year L. Jordan was the #3 rb and a lot of people were going nuts over him... Of course R. Brown is better than Jordan but I'm not going to ignore 30+ games of history for 4 good games against lousy teams.

 

[Tanner9919]

Cam Cameron.

:(

How did Cam Cameron help his YPC go up almost a full yard?

If I was the Chargers OC, calling plays, you can bet your ### LTs YPC would drop by more then 1. *lol* Bad coaches hurt production, good coaches help it. If you can't understand how a stud offensive mind can help offensive players production, you're in the wrong hobby. Go check out what Norv did with Gore/Alex Smith. Ever heard of system guys? They ran a good system. The offensive scheme is huge.

Just like how Brian Billick was a stud offensive mind before he came to Baltimore?

are you for real, you're just joking right, taking a half-hearted shot at him? Billick coached the Vikings to be ( at the time) the most prolific offense in NFL history, bested only by the 2007 Patriots.In 1998, Minnesota set an NFL record for most points scored in a season (556) and set a team record with 41 touchdown passes. He won a SB as a head coach.I f you're looking at Michael Turner, think twice. Alex Gibbs no longer coaches there. Gibbs is considered one of ,if not the very best O-line/offensive coaches, ever. Thats why you should look at the Texans' running game this season, because Gibbs is an assistant head/Offensive coach for the Texans. As the above poster mentioned, watch McGahee's production in Baltimore this season, this could be a career year for him with Cam Cameron coaching that offense.

but you truly are in the wrong hobby if you think coaching doesn't matter and that talent always wins out..

 

[css2373]

Washington (4th overall rush defense) 11 32 0 6 40 0Dallas (6th overall rush defense) 11 33 0 2 36 0NY Jets (29th overall rush defense) 23 112 2 6 99 1Oakland (31st overall rush defense) 15 134 1 6 73 0Houston (19th overall rush defense) 23 114 1 5 39 0Cleveland (27th overall rush defense) 19 101 0 9 69 0New England (10th overall rush defense) 17 76 0 5 33 0That's how he did it. Against defenses in the top 10 he averaged 13 carries 47 yards 0 TDs 4 recs 36 yards 0 TDs and against the others, avg 27 against the run, he went 20 carries 115 yards 1TD 7 recs 70 yds 0.25 TDs.Chipper Jones is hitting over .400 into June...I don't expect him to carry out those number over a full season either.

Don't forget he was also splitting time those first 2 games and he only played a half game against NE. That does skew your stats just a little. The Miami RB's in those games averaged 22 carries for 85 yards and 8 recs for 60 yards. A little different view, isn't it?Everyone seems to want to mention how he did against the crappy defenses. Have you looked at this year's schedule? It's got the same crappy defenses. Miami plays 1 game against a top 5 defense and 5 games against bottom 5 defenses.

Doesn't skew his numbers at all. The biggest knock on Ronnie coming out of college was that he never carried the load for a full season and guess what he hasn't yet in the NFL. RB's who can be the feature back and produce for a whole season, year after year are very special, injuries happen, bodies break down, etc. That's why I added the Chipper comment.And yes I want to mention the poor defenses that he faced. If he is my RB2 or RB3, then I want to know that he will produce against lesser competition so that I can start him...no judgement on his ability, just analysis to better help me win.

 

[BuckeyeArt]

Washington (4th overall rush defense) 11 32 0 6 40 0Dallas (6th overall rush defense) 11 33 0 2 36 0NY Jets (29th overall rush defense) 23 112 2 6 99 1Oakland (31st overall rush defense) 15 134 1 6 73 0Houston (19th overall rush defense) 23 114 1 5 39 0Cleveland (27th overall rush defense) 19 101 0 9 69 0New England (10th overall rush defense) 17 76 0 5 33 0That's how he did it. Against defenses in the top 10 he averaged 13 carries 47 yards 0 TDs 4 recs 36 yards 0 TDs and against the others, avg 27 against the run, he went 20 carries 115 yards 1TD 7 recs 70 yds 0.25 TDs.Chipper Jones is hitting over .400 into June...I don't expect him to carry out those number over a full season either.

Don't forget he was also splitting time those first 2 games and he only played a half game against NE. That does skew your stats just a little. Everyone seems to want to mention how he did against the crappy defenses. Have you looked at this year's schedule? It's got the same crappy defenses. Miami plays 1 game against a top 5 defense and 5 games against bottom 5 defenses.

everyone plays crappy defenses, he just happened to have them front loaded at the beginning of the year and then got hurt. Then people look at his numbers through 7 games and extrapolate them over the course of 16 games which is a mistake.

I absolutely agree. But it's also a mistake to think he would not have finished top 3 after that start. My point about the crappy defenses was that their schedule is loaded with them again. That's something you shouldn't ignore either. If people are using the crappy defense theory to explain his success, they should factor that into his next year's projections as well.I think the point you made about the receiving is the key. We can probably safely assume he isn't going to catch 90 balls over the year. he likely won't go back to only catching 30 either. It will probably be somewhere around 50-450-1. His rushing totals over his last 16 games were 292-1371-7. I think those are pretty fair for a whole season. That gives him about 230 points and puts him in the top 5 or so in just about any scoring system.Now, I know someone going to say he's coming off injury and won't be the FT RB at the beginning of the season. That's obviously a fair, valid, and likely correct argument. But I don't think I really care if he only produces at that pace during the last half of the year. At least it's the right half.

 

[Banger]

Washington (4th overall rush defense) 11 32 0 6 40 0Dallas (6th overall rush defense) 11 33 0 2 36 0NY Jets (29th overall rush defense) 23 112 2 6 99 1Oakland (31st overall rush defense) 15 134 1 6 73 0Houston (19th overall rush defense) 23 114 1 5 39 0Cleveland (27th overall rush defense) 19 101 0 9 69 0New England (10th overall rush defense) 17 76 0 5 33 0That's how he did it. Against defenses in the top 10 he averaged 13 carries 47 yards 0 TDs 4 recs 36 yards 0 TDs and against the others, avg 27 against the run, he went 20 carries 115 yards 1TD 7 recs 70 yds 0.25 TDs.Chipper Jones is hitting over .400 into June...I don't expect him to carry out those number over a full season either.

Don't forget he was also splitting time those first 2 games and he only played a half game against NE. That does skew your stats just a little. Everyone seems to want to mention how he did against the crappy defenses. Have you looked at this year's schedule? It's got the same crappy defenses. Miami plays 1 game against a top 5 defense and 5 games against bottom 5 defenses.

everyone plays crappy defenses, he just happened to have them front loaded at the beginning of the year and then got hurt. Then people look at his numbers through 7 games and extrapolate them over the course of 16 games which is a mistake.

I absolutely agree. But it's also a mistake to think he would not have finished top 3 after that start. My point about the crappy defenses was that their schedule is loaded with them again. That's something you shouldn't ignore either. If people are using the crappy defense theory to explain his success, they should factor that into his next year's projections as well.I think the point you made about the receiving is the key. We can probably safely assume he isn't going to catch 90 balls over the year. he likely won't go back to only catching 30 either. It will probably be somewhere around 50-450-1. His rushing totals over his last 16 games were 292-1371-7. I think those are pretty fair for a whole season. That gives him about 230 points and puts him in the top 5 or so in just about any scoring system.Now, I know someone going to say he's coming off injury and won't be the FT RB at the beginning of the season. That's obviously a fair, valid, and likely correct argument. But I don't think I really care if he only produces at that pace during the last half of the year. At least it's the right half.

Brown is a talented back but there are a lot of talented backs in the NFL. One of the big problems I have with Brown is that he doesn't play a full season and always seems to be hampered by something. To project a full year of productivity when he has yet to do it through 3 seasons is a mistake IMO. Is his career path going to go the route of "fragile Fred" where he was banged up with injury after injury the first few years and then all the sudden gets healthy for a few years? Maybe but I put a premium on workhorse backs and at this point Brown hasn't proved that he can carry the load for more than 1/2 season without getting injured. People said the same things about K. Jones and I believe their talent is comparable but if you can't stay healthy it doesn't really mean much.

 

[BuckeyeArt]

Washington (4th overall rush defense) 11 32 0 6 40 0Dallas (6th overall rush defense) 11 33 0 2 36 0NY Jets (29th overall rush defense) 23 112 2 6 99 1Oakland (31st overall rush defense) 15 134 1 6 73 0Houston (19th overall rush defense) 23 114 1 5 39 0Cleveland (27th overall rush defense) 19 101 0 9 69 0New England (10th overall rush defense) 17 76 0 5 33 0That's how he did it. Against defenses in the top 10 he averaged 13 carries 47 yards 0 TDs 4 recs 36 yards 0 TDs and against the others, avg 27 against the run, he went 20 carries 115 yards 1TD 7 recs 70 yds 0.25 TDs.Chipper Jones is hitting over .400 into June...I don't expect him to carry out those number over a full season either.

Don't forget he was also splitting time those first 2 games and he only played a half game against NE. That does skew your stats just a little. Everyone seems to want to mention how he did against the crappy defenses. Have you looked at this year's schedule? It's got the same crappy defenses. Miami plays 1 game against a top 5 defense and 5 games against bottom 5 defenses.

everyone plays crappy defenses, he just happened to have them front loaded at the beginning of the year and then got hurt. Then people look at his numbers through 7 games and extrapolate them over the course of 16 games which is a mistake.

I absolutely agree. But it's also a mistake to think he would not have finished top 3 after that start. My point about the crappy defenses was that their schedule is loaded with them again. That's something you shouldn't ignore either. If people are using the crappy defense theory to explain his success, they should factor that into his next year's projections as well.I think the point you made about the receiving is the key. We can probably safely assume he isn't going to catch 90 balls over the year. he likely won't go back to only catching 30 either. It will probably be somewhere around 50-450-1. His rushing totals over his last 16 games were 292-1371-7. I think those are pretty fair for a whole season. That gives him about 230 points and puts him in the top 5 or so in just about any scoring system.Now, I know someone going to say he's coming off injury and won't be the FT RB at the beginning of the season. That's obviously a fair, valid, and likely correct argument. But I don't think I really care if he only produces at that pace during the last half of the year. At least it's the right half.

Brown is a talented back but there are a lot of talented backs in the NFL. One of the big problems I have with Brown is that he doesn't play a full season and always seems to be hampered by something. To project a full year of productivity when he has yet to do it through 3 seasons is a mistake IMO. Is his career path going to go the route of "fragile Fred" where he was banged up with injury after injury the first few years and then all the sudden gets healthy for a few years? Maybe but I put a premium on workhorse backs and at this point Brown hasn't proved that he can carry the load for more than 1/2 season without getting injured. People said the same things about K. Jones and I believe their talent is comparable but if you can't stay healthy it doesn't really mean much.

A couple of points on that. First, I think the injury prone label gets thrown around far too often. If a player is truly injury prone, he would tend to be more prone as he aged rather than less. That hasn't been the case with Taylor or Bruce or most of the players who were labeled that way early in their careers. I think there have been numerous short studies posted here that have dispelled the theory. Second, as I said above, I'm more concerned with their weekly production rather than their yearly totals. If he plays 14 games at a top 5 level, that's great. You can't project when or if a player will be injured.

 

[Team Legacy]

First off - I DO NOT OWN RONNIE BROWN IN ANY DYNASTY LEAGUE. I have to get that out of the way first because I can't stand not knowing a poster's motive. My motive is to possibly give you something you haven't considered or might be overlooking when conducting your own rankings.

Ronnie is SO misunderstood this year it's not even funny. What I find most fascinating is everyone and their brother is citing Cam Cameron as the SOLE reason Ronnie did what he did. I disagree. Every coach in the NFL employs the SAME underlying principle and it's this... You ready????

The 2007 Miami Running back was a PPR machine. Why? I believe the answer is three fold.

#1. Let's face it, Ronnie Brown catches the ball extremely well out of the backfield. Many backs do not and are usually asked to pass protect instead.

#2. Equally important, because Miami gets way behind EARLY and OFTEN, linebackers and safeties start backing up and Ronnie is used to move the chains. This trend SHOULD continue regardless of who's calling the plays. Brown 39 in 7 games, Booker 28 in 5 games, Chatman 27 in 10 games, Gado 12 in 5 games.

#3. The Cameron factor - Sure, this philosophy of ball movement worked with LT and it worked with Ronnie. As a new coach stepping in, this cannot be ignored either.

We all know the guy caught 39 balls in a 7 game stretch, which equates out to 89 receptions

for the year. During that same span, he rushed 119 times. Here's a new metric: That's a catch every .32 carries OR .32 R.P.C. (Receptions per carry) I play in ONLY PPR leagues, so this metric is VERY important to me. .32 is VERY high for a starting Running back, unheard of really, for a starting RB. These stats are reserved for the 3rd down backs usually, the Kevin Faulk's of the world. RPC is a huge indicator of involvement in the offense, and basically what this says is... another spoiler...

Did the Dolphins in the offseason do ANYTHING roster wise to change this fact? Please don't tell me you believe Ricky Williams is going to split carries 50/50 with Ronnie Brown. Maybe 70-30 if he's lucky.

Pencil Ronnie Brown down as a bonafide RB2 and thank your lucky stars if you get him in the 3rd.

 

[Horses Mouth]

First off - I DO NOT OWN RONNIE BROWN IN ANY DYNASTY LEAGUE. I have to get that out of the way first because I can't stand not knowing a poster's motive. My motive is to possibly give you something you haven't considered or might be overlooking when conducting your own rankings.

Ronnie is SO misunderstood this year it's not even funny. What I find most fascinating is everyone and their brother is citing Cam Cameron as the SOLE reason Ronnie did what he did. I disagree. Every coach in the NFL employs the SAME underlying principle and it's this... You ready????

The 2007 Miami Running back was a PPR machine. Why? I believe the answer is three fold.

#1. Let's face it, Ronnie Brown catches the ball extremely well out of the backfield. Many backs do not and are usually asked to pass protect instead.

#2. Equally important, because Miami gets way behind EARLY and OFTEN, linebackers and safeties start backing up and Ronnie is used to move the chains. This trend SHOULD continue regardless of who's calling the plays. Brown 39 in 7 games, Booker 28 in 5 games, Chatman 27 in 10 games, Gado 12 in 5 games.

#3. The Cameron factor - Sure, this philosophy of ball movement worked with LT and it worked with Ronnie. As a new coach stepping in, this cannot be ignored either.

We all know the guy caught 39 balls in a 7 game stretch, which equates out to 89 receptions

for the year. During that same span, he rushed 119 times. Here's a new metric: That's a catch every 1.3 carries OR 1.3 R.P.C. (Receptions per carry) I play in ONLY PPR leagues, so this metric is VERY important to me. 1.3 is VERY high for a starting Running back, unheard of really, for a starting RB. These stats are reserved for the 3rd down backs usually, the Kevin Faulk's of the world. RPC is a huge indicator of involvement in the offense, and basically what this says is... another spoiler...

Did the Dolphins in the offseason do ANYTHING roster wise to change this fact? Please don't tell me you believe Ricky Williams is going to split carries 50/50 with Ronnie Brown. Maybe 70-30 if he's lucky.

Pencil Ronnie Brown down as a bonafide RB2 and thank your lucky stars if you get him in the 3rd.

i like this guy

 

[Chase Stuart]

We all know the guy caught 39 balls in a 7 game stretch, which equates out to 89 receptions for the year. During that same span, he rushed 119 times. Here's a new metric: That's a catch every 1.3 carries OR 1.3 R.P.C. (Receptions per carry) I play in ONLY PPR leagues, so this metric is VERY important to me. 1.3 is VERY high for a starting Running back, unheard of really, for a starting RB. These stats are reserved for the 3rd down backs usually, the Kevin Faulk's of the world. RPC is a huge indicator of involvement in the offense

I think you mean 1.3 is very low for a starting RB.And you used Brown's pro-rated reception numbers, by accident. Brown actually had 3.1 CPR.(You mean Carries per Reception, not Receptions per Carry. Using the wrong data for Brown, he had 1.3 carries per reception, not 1.3 receptions per carry).

 

[Horses Mouth]

FYI:

Running back Ronnie Brown's progress continues at a good pace. He's getting more carries and more repetitions than he did earlier in the OTA workouts.

"Each one of these practices, he's been able to do a little bit more and that's good for us and good for Ronnie," Sparano said.

http://miamiherald.typepad.com/dolphins_in_depth/

 

[BuckeyeArt]

Did the Dolphins in the offseason do ANYTHING roster wise to change this fact? Please don't tell me you believe Ricky Williams is going to split carries 50/50 with Ronnie Brown. Maybe 70-30 if he's lucky.Pencil Ronnie Brown down as a bonafide RB2 and thank your lucky stars if you get him in the 3rd.

If he gets 50% of the carries and 2/3 of the RB receptions, he's a solid RB2. If he gets what you're suggesting, he's a solid RB1.

 

[az_prof]

Cam Cameron.

How did Cam Cameron help his YPC go up almost a full yard?

If I was the Chargers OC, calling plays, you can bet your ### LTs YPC would drop by more then 1. *lol* Bad coaches hurt production, good coaches help it. If you can't understand how a stud offensive mind can help offensive players production, you're in the wrong hobby. Go check out what Norv did with Gore/Alex Smith. Ever heard of system guys? They ran a good system. The offensive scheme is huge.

Just like how Brian Billick was a stud offensive mind before he came to Baltimore?

Ronnie Brown is a talented RB. Is he an elite talent? Well, I personally don't think so and I don't imagine most would, but I'm some do.However, with the #'s he was putting up last year as the #1 RB in FF, he simply isn't THAT good. I'm sorry. If you look at what he did his first 2 yrs and then see a DRASTIC transformation into an uber-stud like he was until he got hurt, you have to ask yourself what changed. Well, the answer is Cameron and he did similar things while in SD. I don't see how you can overlook that. Similar to what Norv Turner has done for RB's and similar to what Martz has done for passing offenses (look at Detroit's IMMEDIATE improvement during his 2 yrs there).

If there were only one variable--coaching change--then this thinking might make sense. But there are other variables: could it be that the offensive line finally improved last year? Could it be that it took Brown a couple of years to mature as a runner? Unless Cam snapped it on and carried the ball wearing Brown's uniform, I think you have to give most of the credit to Brown. Any good coach will tell you that he can't do anything without the players.

 

[gianmarco]

Cam Cameron.

How did Cam Cameron help his YPC go up almost a full yard?

If I was the Chargers OC, calling plays, you can bet your ### LTs YPC would drop by more then 1. *lol* Bad coaches hurt production, good coaches help it. If you can't understand how a stud offensive mind can help offensive players production, you're in the wrong hobby. Go check out what Norv did with Gore/Alex Smith. Ever heard of system guys? They ran a good system. The offensive scheme is huge.

Just like how Brian Billick was a stud offensive mind before he came to Baltimore?

Ronnie Brown is a talented RB. Is he an elite talent? Well, I personally don't think so and I don't imagine most would, but I'm some do.However, with the #'s he was putting up last year as the #1 RB in FF, he simply isn't THAT good. I'm sorry. If you look at what he did his first 2 yrs and then see a DRASTIC transformation into an uber-stud like he was until he got hurt, you have to ask yourself what changed. Well, the answer is Cameron and he did similar things while in SD. I don't see how you can overlook that. Similar to what Norv Turner has done for RB's and similar to what Martz has done for passing offenses (look at Detroit's IMMEDIATE improvement during his 2 yrs there).

If there were only one variable--coaching change--then this thinking might make sense. But there are other variables: could it be that the offensive line finally improved last year? Could it be that it took Brown a couple of years to mature as a runner? Unless Cam snapped it on and carried the ball wearing Brown's uniform, I think you have to give most of the credit to Brown. Any good coach will tell you that he can't do anything without the players.

I'm not saying Cameron is the ONLY reason. I know that Ronnie is talented. I just don't think he's THAT talented. Go back up and look at the post I wrote comparing the other Miami RB's #'s and what they did after Ronnie was out. They put up enough points that would have been good for the #3 RB in the league over 9 1/2 games. That's exceptional and the talent that put up those #'s doesn't jive. There are definitely a lot of variables, I'm simply saying Cameron is a big one. And I think many people are overlooking how much influence he had. Time will tell.

 

[cmv5]

Cam Cameron.

How did Cam Cameron help his YPC go up almost a full yard?

If I was the Chargers OC, calling plays, you can bet your ### LTs YPC would drop by more then 1. *lol* Bad coaches hurt production, good coaches help it. If you can't understand how a stud offensive mind can help offensive players production, you're in the wrong hobby. Go check out what Norv did with Gore/Alex Smith. Ever heard of system guys? They ran a good system. The offensive scheme is huge.

Just like how Brian Billick was a stud offensive mind before he came to Baltimore?

Ronnie Brown is a talented RB. Is he an elite talent? Well, I personally don't think so and I don't imagine most would, but I'm some do.However, with the #'s he was putting up last year as the #1 RB in FF, he simply isn't THAT good. I'm sorry. If you look at what he did his first 2 yrs and then see a DRASTIC transformation into an uber-stud like he was until he got hurt, you have to ask yourself what changed. Well, the answer is Cameron and he did similar things while in SD. I don't see how you can overlook that. Similar to what Norv Turner has done for RB's and similar to what Martz has done for passing offenses (look at Detroit's IMMEDIATE improvement during his 2 yrs there).

If there were only one variable--coaching change--then this thinking might make sense. But there are other variables: could it be that the offensive line finally improved last year? Could it be that it took Brown a couple of years to mature as a runner? Unless Cam snapped it on and carried the ball wearing Brown's uniform, I think you have to give most of the credit to Brown. Any good coach will tell you that he can't do anything without the players.

I'm not saying Cameron is the ONLY reason. I know that Ronnie is talented. I just don't think he's THAT talented. Go back up and look at the post I wrote comparing the other Miami RB's #'s and what they did after Ronnie was out. They put up enough points that would have been good for the #3 RB in the league over 9 1/2 games. That's exceptional and the talent that put up those #'s doesn't jive. There are definitely a lot of variables, I'm simply saying Cameron is a big one. And I think many people are overlooking how much influence he had. Time will tell.

Yes, there are a lot of variables and you can't just take all the other Miami running backs' numbers and say that they did nearly as well as Ronnie Brown. There aren't enough common opponents played to even compare their performances. The thing that changed this year from other years is Ronnie Brown had the opportunity to touch the ball more per game. Look over his short career, when Ronnie Brown gets the opportunity to carry the ball more than 20 times he has generally delivered. Which brings me into point two. There was a reason that Jesse Chatman was backing up Ronnie Brown and it was kind of in spite of Cameron. Cameron had Brown splitting carries with Chatman to begin the season and it appears that Brown is the type of back that needs to establish a rhythm for himself. By the third game against the Jets he was given that opportunity and Chatman went to backing Brown up. There was no debate that Brown established himself as the anchor of that offense. One last thing to ponder about Brown is that Cameron's offense replaced Mularkey's offense. I feel this played a major factor in why Brown was not a bigger fantasy force in '06 and we got a glimpse of what Ronnie Brown can really do. Turner owners should be fearful of Mularkey. I don't know how the guy is getting another shot at running an offense.

 

[LMF]

This topic i made last year shows that Ronnie Brown DOES have top 10 talent BUT Cameron was the person that gave him the chance to show it with the opportunities of carries.

CLICK HERE

 

[Yenrub]

For those who have drafted already

Where are Ronnie & Ricky being drafted?

 

[Team Legacy]

We all know the guy caught 39 balls in a 7 game stretch, which equates out to 89 receptions for the year. During that same span, he rushed 119 times. Here's a new metric: That's a catch every 1.3 carries OR 1.3 R.P.C. (Receptions per carry) I play in ONLY PPR leagues, so this metric is VERY important to me. 1.3 is VERY high for a starting Running back, unheard of really, for a starting RB. These stats are reserved for the 3rd down backs usually, the Kevin Faulk's of the world. RPC is a huge indicator of involvement in the offense

I think you mean 1.3 is very low for a starting RB.And you used Brown's pro-rated reception numbers, by accident. Brown actually had 3.1 CPR.(You mean Carries per Reception, not Receptions per Carry. Using the wrong data for Brown, he had 1.3 carries per reception, not 1.3 receptions per carry).

Actually, I just inverted the number. I wrote down 3.1 and typed 1.3. Thanks for catching that, although I'd rather use the RPC metric and convert this to .32. Thank god for FELLOW JETS FANS to set me straight! Now let's hope our defense improves so Ronnie doesn't throw down another 45 fantasy points on our heads.