How do you determine you WR rankings? (1 Viewer)

[Bronx Bomber]

Im looking at some guys that are clear/potential #1 targets on their teams: Michael Crabtree, Demaryius Thomas, Greg Little and trying to compare them with guys that are the #2 or #3 targets on their teams such as Julio Jones, Mario Manningham, Antonio Brown; guys that are clearly behind a stud WR but have better QBs and better offenses. When you look at players like these do you generally prefer the guys that will get the majority of targets or guys that have the better offense? Also, you have to take into account if its more of a passing offense or running offense. Taking future matchups out of the equation which type of players do you tend to like better?

 

[CentralPA]

I go for guys in the best offense, but also generally get the most targets.

 

[packersfan]

This has probably been the most difficult year I've had when it comes to WRs because so little has made sense once you get past the top guys. Usually, I want WRs who are in good offenses with good QBs but you see guys like Pierre Garcon, Heyward-Bey and Michael Jenkins getting it done with less-than-stellar QBs and that approach gets thrown out the window. I think once you get past the Top 15-20 WRs or so it's all about matchups at this point and a lot of it is like throwing darts at the board. If I had to choose between guys on a similar tier I'll look first toward production/targets (are they showing any signs of producing over a few weeks span as opposed to one big game?) and then the matchup. So if I was choosing between Antonio Brown, Demaryius Thomas and Michael Jenkins this week I'd probably rank them:

Jenkins

Thomas

Brown

Jenkins first because he has a stronger track record thus far and I'll keep rolling with him until he stinks it up (which could come any given week). Thomas second because Tebow targeted him a ton last week, including the Red Zone target which resulted in a touchdown but Tebow also is hardly trustworthy when it comes to completing passes. Brown third because no WR in Pittsburgh other than Wallace has shown any consistency but I love the matchup and if Ward is out Brown's role could increase this week.

But honestly, I've found the WR position to be more of a crapshoot this season than ever before.

 

[The Rook]

That is a tough one because it varies quite it bit case by case in my opinion. I think alot of it depends on where you see the WR2 trending. Is he the heir apparent to WR1? Is his role increasing in the offense? Or is there a revolving door on who actually receives #2 workload week to week?

Mike Wallace or Greg Jennings are examples that come to mind. There was a window where they were the #2 receiver in past years but you'd want them over several #1 receivers in the league.

With some high powered offenses like New Orleans or previous years' version of the Colts, you end up guessing week to week on who is WR#2.

From the examples you mentioned, I am intrigued by Demaryius Thomas situation, but I'd be more interested in Julio Jones or Antonio Brown from your #2 list over Crabtree or LIttle from your #1 list.

 

[DoubleG]

Im looking at some guys that are clear/potential #1 targets on their teams: Michael Crabtree, Demaryius Thomas, Greg Little and trying to compare them with guys that are the #2 or #3 targets on their teams such as Julio Jones, Mario Manningham, Antonio Brown; guys that are clearly behind a stud WR but have better QBs and better offenses. When you look at players like these do you generally prefer the guys that will get the majority of targets or guys that have the better offense? Also, you have to take into account if its more of a passing offense or running offense. Taking future matchups out of the equation which type of players do you tend to like better?

In general, I like to consider three things (generally in order of importance):1) # of target2) Type of targets3) Type of player4) Catch %What I mean by #2, is that there is a huge difference (IMHO) between a "target" and a "redzone" or "goal line" target. Sometimes this is related to #3 (if I have two WRs but one is 6' 5" with decent speed and the other is 6' 1" with decent speed - the 6' 5" is going to see more endzone jump-balls....typically). #3 also means taking into consideration things like YAC. For example a target to Maclin is not the same as a target to DJax, due to DJax's ability to take it to the house - or at least turn an 8 yard slant into a 42 yard gain.The reason you need to include #4 is to account for either bad hand or bad QBs. As yet another example as to why targets alon can't do this for you - all you have to do is look at the top 10 WRs in terms of targets. Sure you have names like Welker, Steve Smiff, Calvin Johnson and Jennings - but you also have Reggie Wayne, R. White, Mike Thomas, Mike Williams and Brandon Marshall - non of whom are in the top 12 in FF points. Why? Points #2, #3 and #4 - None of the 3 (save for maybe Marshall) is a true deep threat (anymore), none is particularly tall (i.e. not a big endzone target) and none has a very good QB (White is arguably the exception - but Ryan has been underperforming and White is the highest scoring of the 5).But in more direct answer to the OP question - I would still look at the 2 WRs you are comparing in light of the 4 above criteria - regardless as to what they are on their team. Carbtree might be the "#1 WR" on the 49ers - but 5 years ago - the #2 WR on the Colts (Wayne) was MUCH more valuable - partly because of the fact that he WAS a deep threat, he WAS getting red zone looks and his QB WAS one of the most accurate in the game (well, and number of targets was through the roof). The same could be said of DJax - even though he is (or was?) techincally the #2 to Maclin, he is/was a borderline WR1 in FF becuase of his production - despite the relatively low # of total targets.In some ways, that's what makes guys like D. Thomas and D. Alexander so intriguing. They may only see 8-10 targets in a game for 4-5 receptions - but with both being big, hard-to-bring-down WRs with good speed, anyone of those could be 74 yard TDs - which pad the stat-line real nicely. Incidentally, that would be about the same production you'd get from a WR who saw 14 targets and caught 12 passes for 134 yards (i.e. a "posession/move the chains" kinda guy) - in PPR, the second is more valuable. In standard, it's 6 of one, half dozen of the other - although the 2nd WR (the posession guy) will be more reliable on weekly basis.

 

[Rand al Thor]

DoubleG - Thank you for a very well-reasoned reply. You have provided a solid procedure to utilize when trying to predict what is ultimately a crapshoot.

 

[HoTnickZ]

I'm totally lost on WR's this year, and hanging on to hope from the likes of D Thomas. I'm also conscious of who has Revis island on their schedule, especially playoffs (and to a lesser extent Nnamdi and Haden). I just feel the moment I trade for Colston or Jennings they will come back down to earth. Colston might just be for real this year. Drew seems to be focusing primarily on him, Jimmy, and Sproles this year.

Good discussion though, if we can speculate who might breakout or maintain their pace it would be a huge benefit. I'm thinking Miles or Desean might be buy lows.