How does Dallas divide the targets? (1 Viewer)

[Concept Coop]

The Cowboys are going into the season with 3 players capable of being the #1 options on other teams: Jason Witten, Miles Austin, and Dez Bryant. This is a great thing for the offense, but a big question mark for fantasy owners. I did some (very) basic research, hoping to come away with a better idea of the dynasty value of the 3, and instead, only came away with more questions.

I only looked at the last 4 seasons, because they have 3 very important things in common: Jason Garrett, Tony Romo, and Jason Witten.

A few things that stood out:

1. Before this year, Dallas has not had a solid #2 WR. A ridiculously high number of targets went to Witten/WR1 (Austin/TO). I was surprised to see the offensive numbers that the Cowboys put up while shuffling Patrick Crayton, Sam Hurd, and Roy Williams at the WR2 spot. Scary to think what this offense can do next season, if the pieces fit.

2. Miles Austin = TO, in terms of production as a Dallas Cowboy. Granted, Austin has a smaller sample size and wasn't feared the way Owens was. But his raw numbers are equal that of TO, and his 09 campaign dwarfed TO's best year as a Cowboy, per game.

3. This is the first year that Garrett has dialed the long ball back. It is impossible to say if this was due to the weapons, the injuries along the offensive line, or the injury to Tony Romo. Obviously a combination of the 3 is most likely, but to what degree? Oddly enough, if he reverts back a high reliance on the long ball, it serves to help Jason Witten and hinder Austin and Bryant. Because they relied on the deep ball so often, the coverage was stretched and Witten had a lot of room to work, as well as a very high number of targets. Witten scores his TDs in the Redzone, so his TD productions should not be altered much. Austin does his damage underneath, despite being a burner - he would be affected the most, I feel.

There were other stats or trends that caught my eye, but I don't want to go too in depth. I don't want to take away from the big question, which is broad:

3 big mouths to feed and only one football. How are the targets divided?

The number of total targets is sure to be around 31-33. Factor in the screens, throw aways, and attempts to those outside of the big 3, and there aren't enough to go around, while expecting Austin to continue putting up WR1 numbers, Witten to grab 90 balls, and Bryant to pick up where he was before the injury.

What happens?

 

[Concept Coop]

I personally think Witten is the constant. He offers the most individualized skill-set, between the three. I think he is the safest bet to catch 90 balls. I have also notices that his value has dropped, because of the "Bryant Factor", while Austin's is still stable. Also, I think Bryant is being valued as though he is a lock to surpass Austin as the WR1(Owens/Austin) in terms of production. I don't think he is. He is also the riskiest due to character and injuries.

Looking at the situation, in my opinion, Witten is a buy, Austin a hold/buy, and Bryant a sell.

Another thing to note: When Bryant's numbers were peaking, Witten's totals did not dip, Austin's did. That could point to a battle for targets between the two WRs. Again, suggesting that Witten is the constant.

 

[fruity pebbles]

Instead of targets i went by yards in trying to figure out what Dezand Austin might do. Went back 3 years in trying to figure out the number of yards Dallas receivers typically get.

1. I would project Romo out to 4500 yards

2. The tight ends will get around 1200 yards total

3. The runningbacks will get around 600 yards total

This leaves 2700 yards for the WRs. The main question to me is how many yards Roy Williams as the 3rd WR will get. Typically the Dallas 3rd WR gets around 500 yards. But thats largely because their 2nd and 3rd WR have been interchangeable with them not having a true #2. I think outside Dez and Austin, the 3rd WR gets around 300 yards and another 100 yards for misc guys.

Leaves 2300 yards to split between Dez and Austin. How that split goes i have no idea.

 

[Go deep]

I think it will look similar to what it did in the first 6 weeks of 2010(before Romo was hurt). I would guess the Cowboys will try to run more than last season, not sure how that will work though.

Targets stats through week 6:

Miles Austin 46 targets, 33 rec, 71.7%

Jason Witten 38 targets, 23 rec, 60.5%

Roy Williams 31 targets, 21 rec, 67.7%

Dez Bryant 29 targets, 18ec, 62.1%

Martellus Bennett 20 targets, 13 rec, 65%

Felix Jones 18 targets. 18 rec, 100%

Roy Williams is likely a goner, and if thats the case, here is how i see the targets working out this season.

Austin 140

Witten 110

Bryant 100

Jones 65

WR 3 60

 

[Concept Coop]

I think it will look similar to what it did in the first 6 weeks of 2010(before Romo was hurt). I would guess the Cowboys will try to run more than last season, not sure how that will work though.Targets stats through week 6:Miles Austin 46 targets, 33 rec, 71.7%Jason Witten 38 targets, 23 rec, 60.5%Roy Williams 31 targets, 21 rec, 67.7%Dez Bryant 29 targets, 18ec, 62.1%Martellus Bennett 20 targets, 13 rec, 65%Felix Jones 18 targets. 18 rec, 100%Roy Williams is likely a goner, and if thats the case, here is how i see the targets working out this season.Austin 140 Witten 110Bryant 100Jones 65WR 3 60

I think it is wise to put contexts on such a small sample size. The offensive line was injured and cost Dallas games. They were so bad that the staff had to call games differently, and keep Witten in to double team a lot more.

 

[Concept Coop]

Instead of targets i went by yards in trying to figure out what Dezand Austin might do. Went back 3 years in trying to figure out the number of yards Dallas receivers typically get.1. I would project Romo out to 4500 yards2. The tight ends will get around 1200 yards total3. The runningbacks will get around 600 yards totalThis leaves 2700 yards for the WRs. The main question to me is how many yards Roy Williams as the 3rd WR will get. Typically the Dallas 3rd WR gets around 500 yards. But thats largely because their 2nd and 3rd WR have been interchangeable with them not having a true #2. I think outside Dez and Austin, the 3rd WR gets around 300 yards and another 100 yards for misc guys.Leaves 2300 yards to split between Dez and Austin. How that split goes i have no idea.

Good posting. I would honestly be a bit surprised to see that many yards for the two of them to split, but I think you are right, in that they will split them. If I had to guess, I would say one gets 1,100+ and the other around 800.

 

[Go deep]

I think it will look similar to what it did in the first 6 weeks of 2010(before Romo was hurt). I would guess the Cowboys will try to run more than last season, not sure how that will work though.Targets stats through week 6:Miles Austin 46 targets, 33 rec, 71.7%Jason Witten 38 targets, 23 rec, 60.5%Roy Williams 31 targets, 21 rec, 67.7%Dez Bryant 29 targets, 18ec, 62.1%Martellus Bennett 20 targets, 13 rec, 65%Felix Jones 18 targets. 18 rec, 100%Roy Williams is likely a goner, and if thats the case, here is how i see the targets working out this season.Austin 140 Witten 110Bryant 100Jones 65WR 3 60

I think it is wise to put contexts on such a small sample size. The offensive line was injured and cost Dallas games. They were so bad that the staff had to call games differently, and keep Witten in to double team a lot more.

Im not just projecting those 5 weeks, i took all that stuff into account. I own Witten in half of my dynasty leagues, i hope i am wrong, but i dont see him getting more than 110 targets this year if both Bryant and Austin stay healthy all season.

 

[Zdravko]

Those of you who own Witten should consider his numbers pre-Romo's injury. The targets may keep coming, but the TDs won't and the yardage will be under 9 ypc. I'd sell now or at least not set my expectations very high. Unless you are in 1.5 TE PPR, Witten = #5 TE, assuming no injuries to anyone.

I also don't see how Miles gets more targets than Dez, but Dallas is an offense that can still produce two top-20 receivers.

 

[Go deep]

Those of you who own Witten should consider his numbers pre-Romo's injury. The targets may keep coming, but the TDs won't and the yardage will be under 9 ypc. I'd sell now or at least not set my expectations very high. Unless you are in 1.5 TE PPR, Witten = #5 TE, assuming no injuries to anyone.I also don't see how Miles gets more targets than Dez, but Dallas is an offense that can still produce two top-20 receivers.

Austin averaged 9.2 targets a game with Romo at QB and Bryant 5.8. I know Bryant was a rookie last year, and his targets should go up in his 2nd year, but i am pretty confident Austin gets more targets than Bryant this season.My early projections:Austin 131 targets, 85 rec, 65%, 1280 yards, 15 ypc. 8 TD'sWitten 114 targets, 77 rec, 67%, 832 yards, 10.8 ypc, 5 TD'sBryant 106 targets, 67 rec, 63%, 896 yards, 13.4 ypc, 7 TD's

 

[Ridgelake]

Romo and the Dallas offense will do what the OL allows them to do.

4 years ago when the OL was good, Romo was a top 3 QB in the league for fantasy points. TO was a top WR. Barber put up a ton of TDs. They were dominate offensively. Each successive year, the line has declined. They were below average last year. And with 4 starters over 32 years of age, they won't improve without fresh blood.

It was very clear from watching the play calling last year, that Garrett doesn't trust the line. All those deep crossing patterns that are part of the Norv Turner, Ernie Zampese, Don Coryell offense that Garrett wants to run were taken out of the play book last year. He regularly and consistently calls check downs to Felix, especially against strong pass rush teams. All those power running plays that the Boys ran in the 90s with Emmitt don't work now. Garrett can't run the offense he wants with the current line.

If the line gets upgraded, then you are likely to see the explosive offense. But if the line isnt addressed with quality new starters, its not going to materialize and will likely be worse than last year (assuming a constant difficulty of schedule).

Before forecasting the Dallas offense, take a long hard look at what line improvements, if any, they make.

 

[Go deep]

Romo and the Dallas offense will do what the OL allows them to do. 4 years ago when the OL was good, Romo was a top 3 QB in the league for fantasy points. TO was a top WR. Barber put up a ton of TDs. They were dominate offensively. Each successive year, the line has declined. They were below average last year. And with 4 starters over 32 years of age, they won't improve without fresh blood.It was very clear from watching the play calling last year, that Garrett doesn't trust the line. All those deep crossing patterns that are part of the Norv Turner, Ernie Zampese, Don Coryell offense that Garrett wants to run were taken out of the play book last year. He regularly and consistently calls check downs to Felix, especially against strong pass rush teams. All those power running plays that the Boys ran in the 90s with Emmitt don't work now. Garrett can't run the offense he wants with the current line.If the line gets upgraded, then you are likely to see the explosive offense. But if the line isnt addressed with quality new starters, its not going to materialize and will likely be worse than last year (assuming a constant difficulty of schedule). Before forecasting the Dallas offense, take a long hard look at what line improvements, if any, they make.

Their running game should be worse than ever this year, and the Oline is also a big part of why i think Witten will see his lowest target numbers in 5 years. They Cowboys have too much talent to not put up some good passing numbers, but i dont think they will have two top 15-20 WR's and a top 5 TE like many seem to expect.

 

[Concept Coop]

Those of you who own Witten should consider his numbers pre-Romo's injury. The targets may keep coming, but the TDs won't and the yardage will be under 9 ypc. I'd sell now or at least not set my expectations very high. Unless you are in 1.5 TE PPR, Witten = #5 TE, assuming no injuries to anyone.I also don't see how Miles gets more targets than Dez, but Dallas is an offense that can still produce two top-20 receivers.

Or, watch the games and realize that Alex freaking Barron played in 11 games. Or look at his numbers the last 4 years, in which he has been solid and stead as a rock. This "sell now" stuff doesn't really stand up to the application of logic. His value has already been lowered by the hope that Dez is a top WR. Dallas is not an offense that can produce 2x top 20 WRs. At least they haven't been. In order for them to, Witten's numbers need to drop. Witten has the most unique skill-set of the 3 and will only be helped if teams have to worry about Bryant and Austin.No way Witten is only a TE5, in any format.And, even if we pretended that Bryant doesn't do anything stupid and can stay healthy, NOTHING he did compared to the stretch that Miles put together. He was the most productive WR in the NFL over a 16 game stretch.

 

[Go deep]

Those of you who own Witten should consider his numbers pre-Romo's injury. The targets may keep coming, but the TDs won't and the yardage will be under 9 ypc. I'd sell now or at least not set my expectations very high. Unless you are in 1.5 TE PPR, Witten = #5 TE, assuming no injuries to anyone.

I also don't see how Miles gets more targets than Dez, but Dallas is an offense that can still produce two top-20 receivers.

Or, watch the games and realize that Alex freaking Barron played in 11 games. Or look at his numbers the last 4 years, in which he has been solid and stead as a rock. This "sell now" stuff doesn't really stand up to the application of logic. Dallas is not an offense that can produce 2x top 20 WRs. At least they haven't been. In order for them to, Witten's numbers need to drop. Witten has the most unique skill-set of the 3 and will only be helped if teams have to worry about Bryant and Austin.

No way Witten is only a TE5, in any format.

I could see an argument for 4, but he is at least a tier behind Finley, Gates and Davis....IMO of course.

 

[Concept Coop]

Those of you who own Witten should consider his numbers pre-Romo's injury. The targets may keep coming, but the TDs won't and the yardage will be under 9 ypc. I'd sell now or at least not set my expectations very high. Unless you are in 1.5 TE PPR, Witten = #5 TE, assuming no injuries to anyone.

I also don't see how Miles gets more targets than Dez, but Dallas is an offense that can still produce two top-20 receivers.

Or, watch the games and realize that Alex freaking Barron played in 11 games. Or look at his numbers the last 4 years, in which he has been solid and stead as a rock. This "sell now" stuff doesn't really stand up to the application of logic. Dallas is not an offense that can produce 2x top 20 WRs. At least they haven't been. In order for them to, Witten's numbers need to drop. Witten has the most unique skill-set of the 3 and will only be helped if teams have to worry about Bryant and Austin.

No way Witten is only a TE5, in any format.

I could see an argument for 4, but he is at least a tier behind Finley, Gates and Davis....IMO of course.

I have him ahead or on par with everyone but Finley, but I am a believer and fan of his. I can see the argument for Gates, as per game played he is hands down the best, Finley and even Davis. But he is head and shoulders ahead of everyone not listed.

 

[FUBAR]

Those of you who own Witten should consider his numbers pre-Romo's injury. The targets may keep coming, but the TDs won't and the yardage will be under 9 ypc. I'd sell now or at least not set my expectations very high. Unless you are in 1.5 TE PPR, Witten = #5 TE, assuming no injuries to anyone.

I also don't see how Miles gets more targets than Dez, but Dallas is an offense that can still produce two top-20 receivers.

Or, watch the games and realize that Alex freaking Barron played in 11 games. Or look at his numbers the last 4 years, in which he has been solid and stead as a rock. This "sell now" stuff doesn't really stand up to the application of logic. Dallas is not an offense that can produce 2x top 20 WRs. At least they haven't been. In order for them to, Witten's numbers need to drop. Witten has the most unique skill-set of the 3 and will only be helped if teams have to worry about Bryant and Austin.

No way Witten is only a TE5, in any format.

I could see an argument for 4, but he is at least a tier behind Finley, Gates and Davis....IMO of course.

I have him ahead or on par with everyone but Finley, but I am a believer and fan of his. I can see the argument for Gates, as per game played he is hands down the best, Finley and even Davis. But he is head and shoulders ahead of everyone not listed.

Are we to assume Dallas Clark won't play a full season this year?

 

[Concept Coop]

Those of you who own Witten should consider his numbers pre-Romo's injury. The targets may keep coming, but the TDs won't and the yardage will be under 9 ypc. I'd sell now or at least not set my expectations very high. Unless you are in 1.5 TE PPR, Witten = #5 TE, assuming no injuries to anyone.

I also don't see how Miles gets more targets than Dez, but Dallas is an offense that can still produce two top-20 receivers.

Or, watch the games and realize that Alex freaking Barron played in 11 games. Or look at his numbers the last 4 years, in which he has been solid and stead as a rock. This "sell now" stuff doesn't really stand up to the application of logic. Dallas is not an offense that can produce 2x top 20 WRs. At least they haven't been. In order for them to, Witten's numbers need to drop. Witten has the most unique skill-set of the 3 and will only be helped if teams have to worry about Bryant and Austin.

No way Witten is only a TE5, in any format.

I could see an argument for 4, but he is at least a tier behind Finley, Gates and Davis....IMO of course.

I have him ahead or on par with everyone but Finley, but I am a believer and fan of his. I can see the argument for Gates, as per game played he is hands down the best, Finley and even Davis. But he is head and shoulders ahead of everyone not listed.

Are we to assume Dallas Clark won't play a full season this year?

I am a big Dallas Clark guy. But in dynasty leagues, I can't take him over Witten or consider them on the same level.

 

[FUBAR]

Those of you who own Witten should consider his numbers pre-Romo's injury. The targets may keep coming, but the TDs won't and the yardage will be under 9 ypc. I'd sell now or at least not set my expectations very high. Unless you are in 1.5 TE PPR, Witten = #5 TE, assuming no injuries to anyone.

I also don't see how Miles gets more targets than Dez, but Dallas is an offense that can still produce two top-20 receivers.

Or, watch the games and realize that Alex freaking Barron played in 11 games. Or look at his numbers the last 4 years, in which he has been solid and stead as a rock. This "sell now" stuff doesn't really stand up to the application of logic. Dallas is not an offense that can produce 2x top 20 WRs. At least they haven't been. In order for them to, Witten's numbers need to drop. Witten has the most unique skill-set of the 3 and will only be helped if teams have to worry about Bryant and Austin.

No way Witten is only a TE5, in any format.

I could see an argument for 4, but he is at least a tier behind Finley, Gates and Davis....IMO of course.

I have him ahead or on par with everyone but Finley, but I am a believer and fan of his. I can see the argument for Gates, as per game played he is hands down the best, Finley and even Davis. But he is head and shoulders ahead of everyone not listed.

Are we to assume Dallas Clark won't play a full season this year?

I am a big Dallas Clark guy. But in dynasty leagues, I can't take him over Witten or consider them on the same level.

I won't argue with that, I thought we were talking 2011 only.

 

[bicycle_seat_sniffer]

Those of you who own Witten should consider his numbers pre-Romo's injury. The targets may keep coming, but the TDs won't and the yardage will be under 9 ypc. I'd sell now or at least not set my expectations very high. Unless you are in 1.5 TE PPR, Witten = #5 TE, assuming no injuries to anyone.

I also don't see how Miles gets more targets than Dez, but Dallas is an offense that can still produce two top-20 receivers.

Or, watch the games and realize that Alex freaking Barron played in 11 games. Or look at his numbers the last 4 years, in which he has been solid and stead as a rock. This "sell now" stuff doesn't really stand up to the application of logic. Dallas is not an offense that can produce 2x top 20 WRs. At least they haven't been. In order for them to, Witten's numbers need to drop. Witten has the most unique skill-set of the 3 and will only be helped if teams have to worry about Bryant and Austin.

No way Witten is only a TE5, in any format.

I could see an argument for 4, but he is at least a tier behind Finley, Gates and Davis....IMO of course.

I have him ahead or on par with everyone but Finley, but I am a believer and fan of his. I can see the argument for Gates, as per game played he is hands down the best, Finley and even Davis. But he is head and shoulders ahead of everyone not listed.

people should actually let Finley finish in the top5 before just plopping him in there like he is a no brainer. His upside cannot be denied but he is overvalued.On the Dallas passing game.

Seems to me that Romo favored Miles Austin. When Romo got hurt Kitna went to Dez, when Dez got hurt he went to Witten.

Hopefully Dallas improves that Oline in the draft and FA whenever that starts.

 

[Toads]

Not muh fur spellun?

Devide is spelled divide.

Details, details....but then again, ur also talking Dez.

 

[Concept Coop]

Not muh fur spellun?

Devide is spelled divide.

Details, details....but then again, ur also talking Dez.

Ur right. Good catch. Thanks.