How High Can Tight Ends Fly? (1 Viewer)

[Lord Fantasy]

This post was inspired by Chase Stuart's Player Points article on Brent Celek, where he noted that TE production has increased by 25% in the past four seasons.

It's also a response to the macro argument going on in Jermichael Finley's Player Spotlight where people are discussing just how much upside can you realistically expect from a TE.

Will the new breed of freakishly athletic pass-catching TEs make a sustainable impact on the game and on fantasy? Will we start routinely seeing multiple TEs getting 1,000 yds/10 TDs (as opposed to just the ones named Clark and Gates)? Do teams start building their offenses around these players in order to gain competitive advantage? In fantasy, do TEs start climbing the draft board, especially in leagues that lump them in together with WRs?

Or does these players become like the Wildcat (a little flavor to sprinkle on an otherwise typical offense)? Do defenses adjust and find a way to shut them down like they've adapted to other innovations? Do we fantasy players end up with one or two stellar choices, while the rest of the talent pool continues to fit into statistical norms?

Final thought:

This could be the Year of the Tight End.

Gates, Clark, Witten, Davis, Finley, and Celek are poised to do a lot of damage to NFL defenses. If the mid-tier veterans and rookies (Winslow, Daniels, Gronkowski, Gresham) click, then look out.

Is the future now?

 

[gandalas]

Don't forget Gonzo, Cooley/Davis, Zach Miller (oak), and even Shianco, Carlson, and Keller.

There are just SO many quality options at TE now, that I think it is easier than ever to get a good producer there.

I think it LOWERS their ADP, as opposed to raising the elite options. If you can get a quality option in the 10th, then why spend a 3rd on Gates/Finley/Clark?

 

[DoubleG]

This post was inspired by Chase Stuart's Player Points article on Brent Celek, where he noted that TE production has increased by 25% in the past four seasons.

It's also a response to the macro argument going on in Jermichael Finley's Player Spotlight where people are discussing just how much upside can you realistically expect from a TE.

Will the new breed of freakishly athletic pass-catching TEs make a sustainable impact on the game and on fantasy? Will we start routinely seeing multiple TEs getting 1,000 yds/10 TDs (as opposed to just the ones named Clark and Gates)? Do teams start building their offenses around these players in order to gain competitive advantage? In fantasy, do TEs start climbing the draft board, especially in leagues that lump them in together with WRs?

Or does these players become like the Wildcat (a little flavor to sprinkle on an otherwise typical offense)? Do defenses adjust and find a way to shut them down like they've adapted to other innovations? Do we fantasy players end up with one or two stellar choices, while the rest of the talent pool continues to fit into statistical norms?

Final thought:

This could be the Year of the Tight End.

Gates, Clark, Witten, Davis, Finley, and Celek are poised to do a lot of damage to NFL defenses. If the mid-tier veterans and rookies (Winslow, Daniels, Gronkowski, Gresham) click, then look out.

Is the future now?

I think so. Here is something I posted in the Finley thread, but it actually makes even more sense here:Here is some histroical data I found very telling in regards to TEs and their increased involvement in the passing game. In a CBS, non-PPR league I'm in with standard scoring, here are the number of 100 fantasy point TE's there were by season:

2000 - 1 (Gonzo)

2001 - 1 (Gonzo)

2002 - 2 (Gonzo & Heap)

2003 - 1 (Gonzo)

Now, here's where things get interesting:

2004 - 4

2005 - 7

2006 - 5

2007 - 6

2008 - 4

2009 - 10

I think the point is fairly obvious. The NFL is moving to a more pass-heavy league in which the TEs play a more prominant role in the passing attack.

 

[Lott's Fingertip]

FIVE TEs had more than 950 yards in 2009: Gates, V.Davis, Clark, Celek, and Witten.

It is conceivable that all five do it again... and then there is Finley, Z.Miller, O.Daniels, and Winslow that could do it, and maybe Gonzo.

Then there are Olsen, Keller, and maybe Cooley that have an outside shot.

H.Miller, Carlson, Shiancoe won't get those yards, but they have low end TE1 upside, upside that could have been top 5ish in previous years.

Then there are the multiple athletic TEs drafted last year and this year...

There is a ton of talent at the TE position, more than ever.

 

[Dinsy Ejotuz]

I think this is a reflection of the rules being tweaked to emphasize the five yard bump and defensive holding being called more. Once the TE beats the jam the rules are hugely in his favor in the middle of the field now.

I'd argue that the rule changes actually make TEs far MORE valuable. In almost all my dynasty leagues I've got two top-10 TEs because they're now scoring enough points that you can flex a TE and he's a legit starter. Even in 1.0 PPR leagues a guy like Celek is startable as a flex.

I don't play redraft leagues, but if did I'd make sure that I scooped up a 2nd quality TE if someone was trying to wait too long. Not only do you have coverage in case of an injury, but the roster flexibility you get from being able to plug in a legit flex from all three positions (RB/TE/WR) ends up being incredibly useful in almost every league at some point during the season.

 

[thatguy]

This post was inspired by Chase Stuart's Player Points article on Brent Celek, where he noted that TE production has increased by 25% in the past four seasons.

It's also a response to the macro argument going on in Jermichael Finley's Player Spotlight where people are discussing just how much upside can you realistically expect from a TE.

Will the new breed of freakishly athletic pass-catching TEs make a sustainable impact on the game and on fantasy? Will we start routinely seeing multiple TEs getting 1,000 yds/10 TDs (as opposed to just the ones named Clark and Gates)? Do teams start building their offenses around these players in order to gain competitive advantage? In fantasy, do TEs start climbing the draft board, especially in leagues that lump them in together with WRs?

Or does these players become like the Wildcat (a little flavor to sprinkle on an otherwise typical offense)? Do defenses adjust and find a way to shut them down like they've adapted to other innovations? Do we fantasy players end up with one or two stellar choices, while the rest of the talent pool continues to fit into statistical norms?

Final thought:

This could be the Year of the Tight End.

Gates, Clark, Witten, Davis, Finley, and Celek are poised to do a lot of damage to NFL defenses. If the mid-tier veterans and rookies (Winslow, Daniels, Gronkowski, Gresham) click, then look out.

Is the future now?

In leagues like this, TE's have decreased value no matter what. When lumped in with the the WR's, all of a sudden 70-900-8 doesn't look so good. But when TE is it's own position, that's a damn fine line, and probably top 5.But more to the point, I do think the position has evolved to the point where a dominant receiving TE can be a key part of a successful offensive attack. However, I tend to agree with the other poster that as we see 5+ players in any given season who all put up numbers just short of the elite options, those elite options become less valuable.

 

[Lord Fantasy]

As thatguy says, if you lump TEs in with WRs their stats aren't that impressive.

But what's interesting about the J. Finley thread is that some people are projecting him this year as what I'll call the Randy Moss of tight ends.

Is 100-1200-14 out of the question? (Not necessarily for Finley, but for anyone. And not necessarily this year but down the line.)

Or have we reached our ceiling but we'll see more players joining what we used to call the elite?

 

[VaCatFan]

I caught on to that trend a while ago. In a dynasty league where TE's get 1.5ppr, I've got Dallas Clark, Jason Witten, and Vernon Davis. The nice part is I can start all 3 of them. With WR's and TE's lumped together, they all were in the top 20 of WR's (Clark was 1, Davis was 5, and Witten was 16). The funny thing is, you couldn't trade them for a box of biscuits as everyone things it's all about WR's and RB's. I will say it's hard to tell who's going to be consistent in the top 5 from year to year as there always seems to be one or two that switch out.

 

[Mister CIA]

TE's are much more athletic than their contemporaries from 10 and 20 years ago, especially relative to the same comparison at WR. I think it's just a matter of skills converging. Also, gauging by the overall chatter, there seems to be a distinct class of "receiving" TEs emerging, which I assume is dictated by a natural mismatch range that lies between safeties and linebackers.

The deeper I get into overall rankings (gut feelings) about players, I find myself drawn most to the possible upside of TEs rather than WR retreads. I'll fill out the bottom of my roster with the Shawn Nelson's and Tony Moeaki's of the world instead of the Lavernoeuousoes Coles and Patrick Craytons. Unless I'm trying to put out a fire in the middle of the season, I've got little interest in these WRs.

 

[LawFitz]

Yes, it seems that TEs are scoring more. But so are passing offenses in general I think. Dan Marino crushed the TD record and it seemed that mark was untouchable. Then Manning AND Brady did it. And Manning did it taking the last game off.

But to get that really ridiculous upside, 80+ catches, 1300+ yards, 14+ TDs (i.e. the Randy Moss of TE seasons) you need some special factors to come into play. And there is only one TE this year that I see with that kind of explosive potential (Finley). Those insane numbers are not likely as a lot of things would have to play out perfectly, but I think a range of about 75-80 catches, 1000-1100 yds and 9-11 TDs shouldn't be a big deal for this guy assuming a. he AND Rodgers stay healthy for 16 with that horrid OL and b. he stays out of trouble off the field and doesn't become a prima donna if he does experience early success. Both of these assumptions carry pretty significant risk, but Finley's situation in every other regard is setting him up for a HUGE year.

1. He's got Aaron Rodgers in a modern passing offense. Over 16 games I give Rodgers 4500+ and 30-35 TDs.

2. Finley is the #1 receiving option both between the 20s and in the red zone. And they really have no other legit red zone target. Oh and he splits out wide and moves to the slot very often. This guy is Rodgers' best weapon.

Dude's upside is ridiculous if things play out right. And his floor is VERY high if he they can stay healthy and he can stay sane.

 

[FreeBaGeL]

I feel like we had this same conversation almost 5 years ago, just with a different list of names, the majority of which were fantasy irrelevant within 2 years.