Whether Collins is a good fantasy QB or not, he will likely be in the best situation in fantasy football next year for potential QB stardom ... on a team that has no D, is going to throw the ball a ton to stay in games, and throwing the rock to the best WR in the game. Sure Collins is not Culpepper, McNabb or Favre, but his situation is much better than any of those QBs and while he likely will not be the fantasy stud those guys are, having to throw the ball a ton to Moss, even if Collins leads the league in picks, is a great equalizer. Right now would rank Collins with Bulger and T.Green as all are similar QBs with little mobility, but are in good situations for putting up a lot of yards and 25-30 TDs ... overall this would rank Collins in the 5-7 range.
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How high has Collins '05 stock risen? (1 Viewer)
- Thread starter pipeman
- Start date
Holy Schneikes
Footballguy
Collins wasn't GREAT last year, but he was decent for the most part. Yeah, he tanked in two of his last 7 games (week 14 at ATL and week 17 vs JAC). No doubting that. But the other games weren't bad at all for a guy in his situation. Find me another QB who didn't have a bad game or two in their last 7 games outside of the true studs. Brees had some very poor games, Green had a couple of rough games, Bulger missed a couple and had a lot of very mediocre games, Hasselbeck had a very shabby game and a missed game, Vick of course had quite a few sad performances etc.The point is, he wasn't bad before, and with the additions, he has the potential to be great and his risk is even lower than it was previously. If the Oakland passing game supported 24 TDs and 4000 passing yards in 2004 WITHOUT Moss etc, what is the floor in 2005 WITH Moss etc.
some really good reads here....funny how in this thread Collins has already kind of been given the title of the most overhyped player before the draft....what it really comes down to is where do you think he will finish....that is what we do with all of the players at every position......people talk about it being a risk and what "box" to take.....to me that is over analyzing things....the fact is Collins is in a great position to have a great year....he just is.....and isn't that the kind of position we want all of our players to be in....it's not about looking good or looking like a fool after the season is over....its about making a solid pick at QB....and trying to wait as long as possible to do it....after the big 3...I think Collins has just as good of a shot....(actually a better shot)...to finish as QB4 than anybody else....and honestly I wouldn't be surppised if he surplanted one of the top 3 stat wise....not sure who else I would say has the potential to do that.....sounds like their will be a couple of camps this summer with regard to Collins....and value is always the tough question....but at some point value is not the say all end all because we will not know any players value until after the season.....and then it is too late anyway..... what I want is a QB who is going to help me win my fantasy games every week...I really don't care what his value is....I think Collins will be in a position to be the kind of quarterback that can carry a fantasy team all year....will he take advantage of that position....I think he will because I think he has the TALENT to do so....by taking Collins in the 4th round am I hurting my team somewhere else...I don't know......and I won't know until the end of the season....I understand the concept of value....by I also understand the value of the concept of having a QB with the potential to carry my team....there are three guys I would take before Collins and I do not know how soon I would take him if he was available....I'd have to think that in many redrafts this year....Manning will go in the first round....Culpepper maybe too.... if not definately second....and I could see McNabb going in the second as well maybe early third....so realistically you may be looking at having to take Collins in the late third or fourth round if you really want him....."THE MOSS FACTOR" will demand it....now you just need to decide if you want him that early....is he worth it...?
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David Yudkin
Footballguy
Numbers by themselves mean very little. Yes, the Raiders as a team put up 4000/24. But they ranked 8th in passing yards and 11th in passing TD.The Raiders would have to move up substantially to justify Collins selection where many are suggesting that he be drafted. As stated throughout this thread, for fantasy purposes, Collins lack of production in the running game would also mean that he would have to perform OVER AND ABOVE other QB to rank high enough to be a Top 5 fantasy QB (assuming that that's where he was drafted).For argument's sake, let's suppose that the Raiders would have to rank Top 3 in passing yards and passing TD for Collins to produce at the level to justify his draft selection.Last year, the Chiefs ranked third in passing yards at 4633 yards. The Packers ranked third in passing TD at 36. If everything remained the same (which is impossible, but humor me), the Raiders would need to gain 614 passing yards and 12 passing TDs.Could Collins heave the ball up that much and produce at that level? We will each have a different answer to that. But bear in mind that in 11 seasons (without the same talent pool) he's had 4,000 passing yards once and a high of 22 passing TD.Of course, if Collins started falling to the #10 QB off the board, that's a diffferent story . . .
Even with his lack of mobility, Collins doesn't need to rank in the top 3 in both yards and TDs to be the 4th best fantasy QB.BTW, as a Collins supporter I would rank him in the 2nd tier with Green, Bulger and Favre, behind the top 3. It will be interesting to hear where the Collins nay sayers rank him and why they figure he should be behind guys like Brooks, Brady and maybe even Delhomme, all guys who have never passed for 4000 yds or 30 TDs in a season.
David Yudkin
Footballguy
I'm curious as to why people would say Oakland with Collins is dramatically better than the Rams with Bulger.- Holt and Moss have posted similar numbers- Bruce and Porter have posted similar numbers- Jackson and Jordan are similar in that they are still mostly unproven- Bulger's career average of 283 yards passing and 1.67 passing TD per start (would total 4500 passing yards and 27 TD over 16 games).- Bulger averages almost 4 rushing TD per 16 starts vs practically none for Collins- Rams had the #25 defense vs Raiders ahving the #31 defense- Both play in high scoring divisions
Didn't realize anyone was saying this. From my reading of this thread, Collins supporters seem to think he will rank at about the same value as Bulger ... somewhere around the 5th best QB in the league (4th to 7th or so are closely bunched). The Collins nay sayers seem to be of the opinion that he will be worse, closer to the 10th best QB.
David Yudkin
Footballguy
Some people are simply handing Collins 32-35 TD as a given. My point was that the Rams are in essentially the same situation and are nowhere close to scoring that many TD through the air.
jurb26
Footballguy
I can see that many still haven't learned from the TO -----> McNabb model.Jesh I don't know if I should think that Collins is overhyped or underhyped right now. 
All I know is that I think its safe to say the the staff here at FBG will be rating both him and Moss well bellow me. Keep it up guys, I have managed to get nearly all of my leaguemates here to read the site. 
All I know is that I think its safe to say the the staff here at FBG will be rating both him and Moss well bellow me. Keep it up guys, I have managed to get nearly all of my leaguemates here to read the site. 
Dancing Bear
Footballguy
I agree with David ...
Bulger has equivalent or higher potential than Collins [and with a proven stable of WR's].
Brooks also has historically been a Top 10 QB each of the last 5 years!
Brees showed great poise and improvement in 2004; he also smoked all other QB's at the Pro Bowl Challenge. I see him continuing to produce and move into the Top 10.
Favre needs no explanation.
Plummer showed clearly that Shanahan knows his stuff.
Green has the tools in place to repeat ...
There are many others like Collins with potential and hype, but I am not sold on Porter or the Oakland Offense ...
If he is a value pick in the draft come late August, then I would draft him otherwise someone else can have him!
Bulger has equivalent or higher potential than Collins [and with a proven stable of WR's].
Brooks also has historically been a Top 10 QB each of the last 5 years!
Brees showed great poise and improvement in 2004; he also smoked all other QB's at the Pro Bowl Challenge. I see him continuing to produce and move into the Top 10.
Favre needs no explanation.
Plummer showed clearly that Shanahan knows his stuff.
Green has the tools in place to repeat ...
There are many others like Collins with potential and hype, but I am not sold on Porter or the Oakland Offense ...
If he is a value pick in the draft come late August, then I would draft him otherwise someone else can have him!
Family Matters
Footballguy
Hey Jurb. You make a great point about how TO helped McNabb. But Collins and McNabb are not even in the same stratosphere. Unless you see Collins as about the same as McNabb.Edit for spellingI can see that many still haven't learned from the TO -----> McNabb model.
Jesh I don't know if I should think that Collins is overhyped or underhyped right now.
All I know is that I think its safe to say the the staff here at FBG will be rating both him and Moss well bellow me. Keep it up guys, I have managed to get nearly all of my leaguemates here to read the site.
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jurb26
Footballguy
That is beside the point. Oak as an O managed 24 passing TDs last year with just over 4000 yds. Philly the year before TO managed: 3270/17 After the addition of TO that total SKYROCKETED to 4200/32! It skyrockets even if you take their BEST season under McNabb which was 2001. 2001 they managed only 3400/27.Is Moss not the REAL factor here, NOT COLLINS? Collins WAS in Oak last year, Moss was NOT. Just like McNabb was in Philly w/o TO.Hey Hurb. You make a great point about how TO helped McNabb. But Collins and McNabb are not even in the same stratosphere. Unless you see Collins as about the same as McNabb.I can see that many still haven't learned from the TO -----> McNabb model.
Jesh I don't know if I should think that Collins is overhyped or underhyped right now.
All I know is that I think its safe to say the the staff here at FBG will be rating both him and Moss well bellow me. Keep it up guys, I have managed to get nearly all of my leaguemates here to read the site.
I would suggest taht Moss > TO, though I am sure many would and could argue otherwise. Either way the 2 are close. TO was good enough for a 1000 yds, 15 TD increase in Philly!!!!
Yet SEVERAL of you are suggesting that not only is Moss not good enough for near that kind of increase, but so much worse that the Oak O will hardly increase at all.
This is besides the fact that Oak is also addressing a MAJOR need in Jordan as well.
So even if you think that Moss > TO is not true, there is no way you can reasonalbly tell yourself that
Moss + Jordan is not = or > than TO
BTW, I would love to see people actually complete the exercises posted earlier in this thread. Submite your projections for all of the Oak skill players stats. Lets see how they add up to your bashing of Collins.
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Don't think anyone is comparing Collins to McNabb, especially as McNabb adds so much more in the rushing department (both yards and TDs). However, believe the point is the affect that a true stud receiver can have on a QB. With the addition of TO, McNabb went from 3200 yds and 16 passing TDs (in 16 games) to 3900 yards & 31 passing TDs (in 15 games). Collins had 3500 yds passing and 21 TDs (also 20 INTs) in 14 games. While he probably won't see the improvement that McNabb saw, 4000 + yds and 28-30 TDs in 16 games with Moss should be a gimme.Hey Hurb. You make a great point about how TO helped McNabb. But Collins and McNabb are not even in the same stratosphere. Unless you see Collins as about the same as McNabb.I can see that many still haven't learned from the TO -----> McNabb model.
Jesh I don't know if I should think that Collins is overhyped or underhyped right now.
All I know is that I think its safe to say the the staff here at FBG will be rating both him and Moss well bellow me. Keep it up guys, I have managed to get nearly all of my leaguemates here to read the site.
David Yudkin
Footballguy
Over the past two seasons, Holt + Bruce = 170 receiving yards and 1 TD per gameMoss + Porter = 135 receiving yards and 1.4 TD per game17 + 6 = 23.0 fantasy points per game13.5 + 8.4 = 21.9 fantasy points per gameThat looks pretty close to me (although both Porter and Moss were dinged up some).
Dancing Bear
Footballguy
I've seen nothing to entice me to start sipping the Collins Kool-Aid.Oakland averaged 57 Offensive plays a game last year. 21 Rushing, 36 Passing. Nearly 2/3 of their plays were Passing plays.If you assume that the Offense as a group improves and say they add 6 Offensive plays a game to 63 [roughly 1,000 plays on the season] how much do you feel Jordan changes the Offensive strategy?You cannot believe that the advent of Moss is going actually increase the percentage of passes do you?With the addition of Jordan one would have to believe that the ratio moves towards a 50 - 50 split. Let's say that it ends up at a 55 - 45 split.At a 55 - 45 split for 1,000 plays then they end up with 550 passes and 450 rushes. At Collins best ever completion ratio of 61.5% that is 338 completions. At his average of 55.9% that is 307 completions. That is quite a difference [2 completions per game].Now, what do you assume for a YPC? His average YPC is 11.8. At this YPC his yardage range is between 3600 and 4000 yards.How about TD's? He has tallied over 20 only twice! In order for Collins to reach Top 5 status he needs to throw on the order of 35 or 36 TD's [it requires more TD's than you might initially think because of Collins' historic INT per TD ratio. He will flirt with throwing 20 INT's!].This is over a 70% increase from last year folks! Moss or no Moss that is not happening!
jurb26
Footballguy
This and your original situation are two VERY DIFFERENT ones though. In your 1st you compaired only Moss with Holt and only Bruce with Porter. NOT the pair together, but independent situations! Plus Moss and Porter have not been healthy over this time frame while Bruce and Holt have. Moss and Porter (this is VERY IMPORTANT IMO) did not play togehter like Bruce and Holt have. On top of that, Porter was a WR3 one of the years you are using. This comparison is anything but fair and classic manipulation of stats IMO.
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Family Matters
Footballguy
Well just to clarify I do not think calling Collins a potential top 10 is bashing. I do not have the confidence that Moss alone can improve Collins to the top 5 level. Moss will get his but Porter may pay the price. Collins makes too many mistakes forcing balls into coverage. Can Moss overcome those throws? Perhaps. But it'll be all Moss and not Collins.My point regarding McNabb is that he was already a proven top 5 QB before Owens got there. Collins is coming from way down there and for people to suggest Moss will make him a top 5 is not realistic. He will do wll but top 5, I don't think so.That is beside the point. Oak as an O managed 24 passing TDs last year with just over 4000 yds. Philly the year before TO managed: 3270/17 After the addition of TO that total SKYROCKETED to 4200/32! It skyrockets even if you take their BEST season under McNabb which was 2001. 2001 they managed only 3400/27.Is Moss not the REAL factor here, NOT COLLINS? Collins WAS in Oak last year, Moss was NOT. Just like McNabb was in Philly w/o TO.Hey Hurb. You make a great point about how TO helped McNabb. But Collins and McNabb are not even in the same stratosphere. Unless you see Collins as about the same as McNabb.I can see that many still haven't learned from the TO -----> McNabb model.
Jesh I don't know if I should think that Collins is overhyped or underhyped right now.
All I know is that I think its safe to say the the staff here at FBG will be rating both him and Moss well bellow me. Keep it up guys, I have managed to get nearly all of my leaguemates here to read the site.
I would suggest taht Moss > TO, though I am sure many would and could argue otherwise. Either way the 2 are close. TO was good enough for a 1000 yds, 15 TD increase in Philly!!!!
Yet SEVERAL of you are suggesting that not only is Moss not good enough for near that kind of increase, but so much worse that the Oak O will hardly increase at all.
This is besides the fact that Oak is also addressing a MAJOR need in Jordan as well.
So even if you think that Moss > TO is not true, there is no way you can reasonalbly tell yourself that
Moss + Jordan is not = or > than TO
BTW, I would love to see people actually complete the exercises posted earlier in this thread. Submite your projections for all of the Oak skill players stats. Lets see how they add up to your bashing of Collins.
BTW-in leagues where there is no penalty for int's Collins is more valuable.
Let's not forget that Turner is a run first coach. He couldn't last year and had to throw. Will Jordan allow him to create a better balanced attack thus minimizing some of the upside that's being projected? Most likely IMO.
jurb26
Footballguy
Huh? Yes, I do think Moss will impact the amount of passes thrown as a matter of fact. Or at least the manor in which the are thrown. Heck even Oak has said they plan to use him and take advantage of his vertical skills. Even if they don't though. He will improve the effectivness of every single passing play they run so long as he is on the field.
You say that the addition of Jordan will cause a more balanced attack huh. Well thats interesting, becuase Moss is coming froma more balanced attack in Minn who had 34.5 passing player per game and 24 rushing! Looks as though his situation is getting BETTER, not worse. Plus, with the amount of holes that Oak has on D, do you really expect them to be in smash mouth running duels?
As for the rest of your post. Its simply mind boggling how you can actually try and relate Collins situation now as opposed to any other time in his career. You can throw away past performaces by Collins. The fact is, never before has he seen a more ideal situation line up as far as FF goes. Yeah he may still blow it, but I think its very unlikely.
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jurb26
Footballguy
I agree that top 5 maybe asking a bit much. What is alarming to me though is that everyone keeps reverting back to Collins prior stats which hold little relevance to his situation now IMO. Also that people keep talking like this 30 TD plateau is unatainable for Collins, a QB who just last year w/o Moss threw 21 in only 14 games. So given he stays healthy and starts the hole year (which I think everyone should assume when making projections for Collins) he needs to only add about a half a TD per game. Do you really think this is going to be that tough with Moss on board? I don't.Well just to clarify I do not think calling Collins a potential top 10 is bashing. I do not have the confidence that Moss alone can improve Collins to the top 5 level. Moss will get his but Porter may pay the price. Collins makes too many mistakes forcing balls into coverage. Can Moss overcome those throws? Perhaps. But it'll be all Moss and not Collins.My point regarding McNabb is that he was already a proven top 5 QB before Owens got there. Collins is coming from way down there and for people to suggest Moss will make him a top 5 is not realistic. He will do wll but top 5, I don't think so.That is beside the point. Oak as an O managed 24 passing TDs last year with just over 4000 yds. Philly the year before TO managed: 3270/17 After the addition of TO that total SKYROCKETED to 4200/32! It skyrockets even if you take their BEST season under McNabb which was 2001. 2001 they managed only 3400/27.Is Moss not the REAL factor here, NOT COLLINS? Collins WAS in Oak last year, Moss was NOT. Just like McNabb was in Philly w/o TO.Hey Hurb. You make a great point about how TO helped McNabb. But Collins and McNabb are not even in the same stratosphere. Unless you see Collins as about the same as McNabb.I can see that many still haven't learned from the TO -----> McNabb model.
Jesh I don't know if I should think that Collins is overhyped or underhyped right now.
All I know is that I think its safe to say the the staff here at FBG will be rating both him and Moss well bellow me. Keep it up guys, I have managed to get nearly all of my leaguemates here to read the site.
I would suggest taht Moss > TO, though I am sure many would and could argue otherwise. Either way the 2 are close. TO was good enough for a 1000 yds, 15 TD increase in Philly!!!!
Yet SEVERAL of you are suggesting that not only is Moss not good enough for near that kind of increase, but so much worse that the Oak O will hardly increase at all.
This is besides the fact that Oak is also addressing a MAJOR need in Jordan as well.
So even if you think that Moss > TO is not true, there is no way you can reasonalbly tell yourself that
Moss + Jordan is not = or > than TO
BTW, I would love to see people actually complete the exercises posted earlier in this thread. Submite your projections for all of the Oak skill players stats. Lets see how they add up to your bashing of Collins.
BTW-in leagues where there is no penalty for int's Collins is more valuable.
Let's not forget that Turner is a run first coach. He couldn't last year and had to throw. Will Jordan allow him to create a better balanced attack thus minimizing some of the upside that's being projected? Most likely IMO.
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Family Matters
Footballguy
Your argument is sound and your point well made. Now come the other part of making projections and actually drafting a player: I don't trust him to do it. Perhaps you do. But I will let someone else take the gamble on him.I agree that top 5 maybe asking a bit much. What is alarming to me though is that everyone keeps reverting back to Collins prior stats which hold little relevance to his situation now IMO. Also that people keep talking like this 30 TD plateau is unatainable for Collins, a QB who just last year w/o Moss threw 21 in only 14 games. So given he stays healthy and starts the hole year (which I think everyone should assume when making projections for Collins) he needs to only add about a half a TD per game. Do you really think this is going to be that tough with Moss on board? I don't.Well just to clarify I do not think calling Collins a potential top 10 is bashing. I do not have the confidence that Moss alone can improve Collins to the top 5 level. Moss will get his but Porter may pay the price. Collins makes too many mistakes forcing balls into coverage. Can Moss overcome those throws? Perhaps. But it'll be all Moss and not Collins.My point regarding McNabb is that he was already a proven top 5 QB before Owens got there. Collins is coming from way down there and for people to suggest Moss will make him a top 5 is not realistic. He will do wll but top 5, I don't think so.That is beside the point. Oak as an O managed 24 passing TDs last year with just over 4000 yds. Philly the year before TO managed: 3270/17 After the addition of TO that total SKYROCKETED to 4200/32! It skyrockets even if you take their BEST season under McNabb which was 2001. 2001 they managed only 3400/27.Is Moss not the REAL factor here, NOT COLLINS? Collins WAS in Oak last year, Moss was NOT. Just like McNabb was in Philly w/o TO.Hey Hurb. You make a great point about how TO helped McNabb. But Collins and McNabb are not even in the same stratosphere. Unless you see Collins as about the same as McNabb.I can see that many still haven't learned from the TO -----> McNabb model.
Jesh I don't know if I should think that Collins is overhyped or underhyped right now.
All I know is that I think its safe to say the the staff here at FBG will be rating both him and Moss well bellow me. Keep it up guys, I have managed to get nearly all of my leaguemates here to read the site.
I would suggest taht Moss > TO, though I am sure many would and could argue otherwise. Either way the 2 are close. TO was good enough for a 1000 yds, 15 TD increase in Philly!!!!
Yet SEVERAL of you are suggesting that not only is Moss not good enough for near that kind of increase, but so much worse that the Oak O will hardly increase at all.
This is besides the fact that Oak is also addressing a MAJOR need in Jordan as well.
So even if you think that Moss > TO is not true, there is no way you can reasonalbly tell yourself that
Moss + Jordan is not = or > than TO
BTW, I would love to see people actually complete the exercises posted earlier in this thread. Submite your projections for all of the Oak skill players stats. Lets see how they add up to your bashing of Collins.
BTW-in leagues where there is no penalty for int's Collins is more valuable.
Let's not forget that Turner is a run first coach. He couldn't last year and had to throw. Will Jordan allow him to create a better balanced attack thus minimizing some of the upside that's being projected? Most likely IMO.
jurb26
Footballguy
In the end, this is what matter most. What our guts tell us.
Truth is, everyone in my league (well my other league) is already raving about Collins. Though this could be a smoke screen. 
I most likely won't be willing to pay what at least 1 or 2 others in this league will. QBs go fast in it already as both Manning and Cpep were 1st rounders in last years draft (9 and 10 of the board). This was before the big QB boom mind you! I guess you can say the guys in this league are ahead of the curve. 
So I most likely will be watching him put up these great numbers on an opponents team. 
Jason Wood
Zoo York
Hey Jurb,You're missing a critical point here in my opinion. The Raiders ranked 4th in the league in passing attempts last year and DEAD LAST (32nd) in rushing attempts. The addition of Lamont Jordan combined with Norv Turner's offensive philosophy all but guarantees that the team will be more balanced this year. So to simply assume that the addition of Moss equates to more passing yards misses a glaring fact about the team's likely re-balancing of their run/pass ratio.That is beside the point. Oak as an O managed 24 passing TDs last year with just over 4000 yds. Philly the year before TO managed: 3270/17 After the addition of TO that total SKYROCKETED to 4200/32! It skyrockets even if you take their BEST season under McNabb which was 2001. 2001 they managed only 3400/27.Is Moss not the REAL factor here, NOT COLLINS? Collins WAS in Oak last year, Moss was NOT. Just like McNabb was in Philly w/o TO.Hey Hurb. You make a great point about how TO helped McNabb. But Collins and McNabb are not even in the same stratosphere. Unless you see Collins as about the same as McNabb.I can see that many still haven't learned from the TO -----> McNabb model.
Jesh I don't know if I should think that Collins is overhyped or underhyped right now.
All I know is that I think its safe to say the the staff here at FBG will be rating both him and Moss well bellow me. Keep it up guys, I have managed to get nearly all of my leaguemates here to read the site.
I would suggest taht Moss > TO, though I am sure many would and could argue otherwise. Either way the 2 are close. TO was good enough for a 1000 yds, 15 TD increase in Philly!!!!
Yet SEVERAL of you are suggesting that not only is Moss not good enough for near that kind of increase, but so much worse that the Oak O will hardly increase at all.
This is besides the fact that Oak is also addressing a MAJOR need in Jordan as well.
So even if you think that Moss > TO is not true, there is no way you can reasonalbly tell yourself that
Moss + Jordan is not = or > than TO
BTW, I would love to see people actually complete the exercises posted earlier in this thread. Submite your projections for all of the Oak skill players stats. Lets see how they add up to your bashing of Collins.
Family Matters
Footballguy
Excellent point. I was trying to make that point earlier but these stats suppurt your point very well.Hey Jurb,You're missing a critical point here in my opinion. The Raiders ranked 4th in the league in passing attempts last year and DEAD LAST (32nd) in rushing attempts. The addition of Lamont Jordan combined with Norv Turner's offensive philosophy all but guarantees that the team will be more balanced this year. So to simply assume that the addition of Moss equates to more passing yards misses a glaring fact about the team's likely re-balancing of their run/pass ratio.That is beside the point. Oak as an O managed 24 passing TDs last year with just over 4000 yds. Philly the year before TO managed: 3270/17 After the addition of TO that total SKYROCKETED to 4200/32! It skyrockets even if you take their BEST season under McNabb which was 2001. 2001 they managed only 3400/27.Is Moss not the REAL factor here, NOT COLLINS? Collins WAS in Oak last year, Moss was NOT. Just like McNabb was in Philly w/o TO.Hey Hurb. You make a great point about how TO helped McNabb. But Collins and McNabb are not even in the same stratosphere. Unless you see Collins as about the same as McNabb.I can see that many still haven't learned from the TO -----> McNabb model.
Jesh I don't know if I should think that Collins is overhyped or underhyped right now.
All I know is that I think its safe to say the the staff here at FBG will be rating both him and Moss well bellow me. Keep it up guys, I have managed to get nearly all of my leaguemates here to read the site.
I would suggest taht Moss > TO, though I am sure many would and could argue otherwise. Either way the 2 are close. TO was good enough for a 1000 yds, 15 TD increase in Philly!!!!
Yet SEVERAL of you are suggesting that not only is Moss not good enough for near that kind of increase, but so much worse that the Oak O will hardly increase at all.
This is besides the fact that Oak is also addressing a MAJOR need in Jordan as well.
So even if you think that Moss > TO is not true, there is no way you can reasonalbly tell yourself that
Moss + Jordan is not = or > than TO
BTW, I would love to see people actually complete the exercises posted earlier in this thread. Submite your projections for all of the Oak skill players stats. Lets see how they add up to your bashing of Collins.
Collins already is a 4000 yard passer. I agree his # of attempts will go down with the addition of Jordan, however his yards per completion will go up with Moss and he will stay in the 4000 yard range. However, the biggest impact on Collins will be TDs, not yards. Overall the Oakland O should be a much higher scoring offense, and with the minuses in their already weak defense, they will be in the realm of KC, Indy and Minny for total pts scored (both scored and allowed) on a per game basis.
bostonfred
Footballguy
In which round would you consider Collins a value pick?
HULLOBUDMAN
Footballguy
Thank God you explained this was a Family Guy quote. I was beginning to think Chrissy from Three's Company was posting here.
bostonfred
Footballguy
Good post, Jason.
LHUCKS
Footballguy
According to this Shark Pool Poll Collins will be ranked in the 7-12 range.
I have no problem with that.
This poll was taken before Lamont Jordan was signed...time for a new poll.
I have no problem with that.
This poll was taken before Lamont Jordan was signed...time for a new poll.
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Jason Wood
Zoo York
I don't have a problem projecting Collins as a 4,000+ yard passer for 2005. Even if we assume the addition of Jordan allows Turner to resume a more normalized run/pass ratio this year, I see no reason why Collins won't have 540-570 pass attempts, which implies 3,800 yard+ if Collins averages his YPA of a year ago (which is also roughly in line with Turner's offensive YPA over his coaching tenure). So if you project that Moss will help Collins' YPA in 2005 (a logical assumption), it's by no means a stretch to think he can/will pass for 4,100+ yards (assuming a 7.5 YPA).
But the problem I'm having is the assumption that somehow Moss' addition puts Collins into the 30+ TD category.
Let's look at the following datapoints:
Pass Atts per TD in Norv Turner's coaching career = 167 TD passes in 4,329 attempts = 25.92 attempts per pass TD
Pass Atts per TD in Kerry Collins' career = 153 TDs in 4,517 attempts = 29.52 attempts per pass TDStartingly similar, no? Now, again it's perfectly reasonable to assume some improvement based on the addition of Randy Moss.
Pass Atts per TD by QBs throwing to Randy Moss = 210 TDs in 3,573 attempts = 17.01 attempts per pass TDI would make the case that while Moss' addition helps matters, the likely outcome is going to be somewhere in between Moss' MIN QB output (different offensive philosophy) and Collins/Turner's career TD/Pass output. But let's look at a range of options:
HIGH END = 1 TD per 17 passes = 32.9 pass TDs (560 PA / 17)
MID POINT = 1 TD per 23.25 passes = 24.1 pass TDs (560 PA / 23.25)
LOW END = 1 TD per 29.5 passes = 19.0 pass TDs (560 PA / 29.5)The bullish folk will contend that Moss will somehow magically change 10 years of history and completely remake both Collins and Turner into as explosive as the MIN offense under Denny Green/Scott Linehan. But if we're looking at more modest improvement, it would appear 24-25 passing TDs along with 4,100 yards or so is the more logical yet promising upside for Collins.
Clearly not a bad fantasy output, and worthy of a starting spot in most leagues to be sure, but enough to justify a top 5 draft spot? We'll have to wait and see.
But the problem I'm having is the assumption that somehow Moss' addition puts Collins into the 30+ TD category.
Let's look at the following datapoints:
Pass Atts per TD in Norv Turner's coaching career = 167 TD passes in 4,329 attempts = 25.92 attempts per pass TD
Pass Atts per TD in Kerry Collins' career = 153 TDs in 4,517 attempts = 29.52 attempts per pass TDStartingly similar, no? Now, again it's perfectly reasonable to assume some improvement based on the addition of Randy Moss.
Pass Atts per TD by QBs throwing to Randy Moss = 210 TDs in 3,573 attempts = 17.01 attempts per pass TDI would make the case that while Moss' addition helps matters, the likely outcome is going to be somewhere in between Moss' MIN QB output (different offensive philosophy) and Collins/Turner's career TD/Pass output. But let's look at a range of options:
HIGH END = 1 TD per 17 passes = 32.9 pass TDs (560 PA / 17)
MID POINT = 1 TD per 23.25 passes = 24.1 pass TDs (560 PA / 23.25)
LOW END = 1 TD per 29.5 passes = 19.0 pass TDs (560 PA / 29.5)The bullish folk will contend that Moss will somehow magically change 10 years of history and completely remake both Collins and Turner into as explosive as the MIN offense under Denny Green/Scott Linehan. But if we're looking at more modest improvement, it would appear 24-25 passing TDs along with 4,100 yards or so is the more logical yet promising upside for Collins.
Clearly not a bad fantasy output, and worthy of a starting spot in most leagues to be sure, but enough to justify a top 5 draft spot? We'll have to wait and see.
LHUCKS
Footballguy
Great Post, and I agree with your conclusions for the most part.That being said, you are assuming there to be linear relationships when using datapoints from Turner/Collins/Moss' history.
Moss could have an exponential/non-linear effect on Turner's offense...a catalytic effect if you will.
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Jason Wood
Zoo York
Absolutely correct, which is why the HIGH END (which assumes Collins jumps into the stratosphere and starts throwing TDs per 17 pass attempts) shows 33 TD passes. Obviously that, plus 4000+ yards would elevate Collins into bonafide fantasy stardom and by and large justify a high pick for him. My point is, given that as a best case scenario, it wouldn't be prudent draft strategy to take that level of output for granted, which I fear is what's going to happen this year as at least one person in every league sees those numbers as a lock.
jurb26
Footballguy
Nice post, but I see some major problems with it:1. Collins has a career Pass atts per TD at 29.5 with having never played with a Moss caliber WR. Yet you set his high at 32.9?
What sense does this make? Shouldn't his high be at the very least a mild improvment from that number... something like say an even 29?2. Collins in his only year as a Oak QB and Turner QB had a Pass atts per TD at 24.4. This was just last year and again w/o Moss! Yet the Mid point and best possible under your estimation are only 24.1 (only 0.4 imporvment) and 19.0 as a max.
I for one would set the bars at:
High end, 29.0
Midway, 23.5
Low end, 17.5
Call it "bullish" if you like, but I call it realistic.
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Jason Wood
Zoo York
Hey jurb,You read the post wrong. The 32.9 is the projected TD output for Collins which assumes 1 TD pass for every 17 attempts. That, as you noted, would be a significant improvement over Collins career mark (and his mark of a year ago), and would equal the output of the MIN QBs during Moss' tenure.
sparkky
Footballguy
An edit to list the before/after qb picks;in order taken:
Manning 1.03
CPep
McNabb
Brady 3.04
Vick 4.2
Bulger
Green
Palmer 5.06
COLLINS 5.07
Plummer 5.10
Hass
Delhomme
Brees 6.10
Carr 7.1
Lefty
Brooks
Penny
Roethl,,,, 7.10
In our scoring system qb's were 5 of the top 10, 7 of the top 14, 11 of the top 20.
many times you need to be that one person in order to win the league....
Bob Magaw
Footballguy
great post jason,the numbers add up, & the logic is flawless & seems to point to an inexorable conclusion.
i might add that, while going back & looking at collins past, APART FROM turner, & turner's past, APART from collins, is of interest & should carry some weight... the most useful datapoint for our purposes (at least for that part of the model that leaves out moss & CAN'T account for it... YET :^)... is last season... when their careers intersect.
a recurring theme in the thread is that the raiders as a team had 24 TDs (most, but not all, by collins, post-gannon injury)... without moss.
in the end, after constructing a comprehensive model that accounted for not only collins & turner's past, but also moss in MIN... somehow we ended up with a number that closely resembles what OAK did last year... again, without moss.
you characterized 24-25 as logical but promising upside for collins.
i feel like i must be missing something. if we are in agreement that collins now is in a better position with moss on board (though HOW much better seems to be a contentious but healthy & interesting debate between those projections in this thread)... & granted that turner may have been conservative historically... but turner was there last season when they got 24 (& yes, they didn't have viable RB & might run more... but that could enable them to sustain more drives & score more... some of which could benefit collins & moss, & lead to more yards & TDs... not less, & doesn't necessarily suggest negative or neutral impact)... your number of 24-25 would seem to correspond to what i would call the baseline, if not the floor... based on last season.
upside would seem to point to a number higher than 24-25... since they already did that last season, without moss... based on last season.
this again, may be due to fact that your model is perhaps conservative, in that it incorporates data from collins prior years in which he never had as good a WR to throw to as moss... & years in which turner never had as good a WR as moss to call plays for.
not trying to put too fine a point on things, but when OAK threw 24 TDs in '04, & your model spits out an "upside" number only 1 more than what they did last season... than they add maybe one of the top 1-2 greatest WRs in history of the NFL... that HAS to be good for more than 1 additional TD.
either i am not accounting for something important... or this speaks to the model not sufficiently taking into account the "moss effect".
by the way... where do you see collins ADP being? do you see it as 5... you have used the number, but i wasn't sure if you were merely commenting to other points in the thread. it should be interesting to get some more ADP data in in the wake of the moss trade.
EDIT/ADD - just for fun, & i am too lazy to look up, but it would be very suggestive & possibly instructive to know... who did collins throw to in CAR? clearly moss would be far better than toomer, & imo porter is substantial upgrade over hilliard.
how bout turner... what were the WRs like in WAS? was bryan westbrook top WR?
EDIT/ADD II - i forgot... turner doesn't call the plays... that is of course the purview of the puppet master, al davis. :^) count chocula is going to command his minions to make daryl "the mad bomber" lamonica days look like trent dilfer & kyle boller.
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I don't think they resigned Porter and aquired Moss to run a conservative gameplan....Jordan was a great signing....but we are kidding ourselves if we think the Raiders...even under Turner...are going to be a smashmouth team....this team looks like it is set up to have a nice running game....but the pass is still where it is at....they are still the Raiders baby....lol at all of these numbers people are throwing out about Collins in the past and Moss in the pass and comparing them to Bruce/Holt....none of that #### matters....what matters is how well you think this SET UP....THIS SITUATION....will do....it looks like all the pieces are in place for Collins to succeed...really what more could he ask for....seriously....Moss is awesome and Porter would have probably been and might still be a top 10-15 WR....Porter as the second best WR on your team...that's salty...just can't believe people are argueing so much over numbers in this case....none of the past numbers really mean anything....this situation is totally different....and that is what happens when you have an impact player changing teams....trying to attach some set of numbers to it is impossible....you just have to wait and see how it works....either you take the chance...or you don't....but that is based on your gut and knowledge of football and how the game works....not what sts so and so put up back when and not what Bruce and Holt did in STL...you either pour the Kool Aid out....or you mix it with some gin and sip it.....
sparkky
Footballguy
Stinkin Ref, I tend to agree. Most of us are in online leagues based from boards like this one where it's pretty darn hard to be that much ahead of the compitition. I think alot of the secret of winning is not only projection of performance but when to pull the trigger and take a guy. Not personally knowing all the others in a league and their history make it hard to predict their tendencies, preferences, style and draft habits.Guess it's like playing chicken and knowing "when to flinch". With so many different scoring rules, roster sizes, starting requirements, etc. there is no way to set a hard-fast "not before round X" rule. Maybe the best way is watch the qb's taken ahead of your rankings for "your" guy. When the players around him start coming off the board it's time to pulll the trigger or watch someone else do it. The round is only so relevant.
Dancing Bear
Footballguy
Hey bostonfred,
I would say that Collins is a value somewhere around the late part of the 5th round or the early part of the 6th round.
I would say that Collins is a value somewhere around the late part of the 5th round or the early part of the 6th round.
bostonfred
Footballguy
Where do you think he'll actually go?
KnowledgeReignsSupreme
Footballguy
According to the results of the latest poll, 20 out of 29 voters have him in the 7-12 range.Based on the 2004 ADP, QB #7 was picked 45th (4.09) overall and QB #12 was picked 68th (6.08) overall.
Then the question is, how much will the upswing in QB production last year (largely due to the #1 and #2 finishers while everyone else stayed mostly the same on average), affect QB ADP in 2005 on average?
Manning/Culpepper were basically picked around the turn of rounds 1 and 2 in a 12 team league last year. It seems like many are willing to gamble on a top QB this year in the top 5 or 6. So would it be safe to say that the top 10 or so QBs will move up about 6 spots in the 2004 draft? That moves Collins to a very early 4th to an early 6th round pick. Too rich for my blood. At this stage, I'd consider it in thte 6th, but I don't see it happening for me realistically.
bostonfred
Footballguy
Nice writeup. I think Collins in the 5th is a decent value. That's about when you're getting into the speculative picks at every position, as all the studs are gone, even at TE, and you're taking a couple shots at greatness. By this time, a good draft might be a couple good RBs, a top WR, a top TE, and Collins - I would be thrilled to start a team that way.
Family Matters
Footballguy
It's a great plan but how many leagues do you think he'll last that long? Not many IMO. He will probably be overvalued as many will pull the trigger based on the high end projections. That means round 3 or maybe even 2 in some cases.
