Fantasy Football - Footballguys Forums
Welcome to Our Forums. Once you've registered and logged in, you're primed to talk football, among other topics, with the sharpest and most experienced fantasy players on the internet.
How high has Collins '05 stock risen? (1 Viewer)
- Thread starter pipeman
- Start date
Family Matters
Footballguy
Some will rank him as high as #5. That's a mistake IMO. He will have the weapons to attain top 10 and maybe he could reach top 5 but I like him better at around 10 knowing the upside. Collins is still the same QB so there will be mistakes on his part and he'll have 18-20+ int's to go with his 25 TD's. This is a classic case of market run up. Noone wants to see him on another team so he will be overvalued this year. The right strategy may be let someone pick him high and when he has a bad game make a move to trade for him with your QB2 or some other mid round pick.
Chaka
Footballguy
You gotta love Collins' upside. The best receiver in the game, an above average #2 receiver, a tight end who can catch, an potentially very good offensive line and a weak defense. That's a great mix. I could see him finishing top 5, I probably wouldn't grab him that high but I could see it happen.Another bonus about Collins is that he isn't a big injury risk, short of Manning and Favre, he is just about the only other lock to start 16 games. I think his back strain at the end of 2003 was the only injury of his career...of course some could say that he suffered dain bramage at the beginning of his career but I hear he's feeling much better now.
David Yudkin
Footballguy
I'm not saying Collins will or will not be a Top 5 QB next year, but here are some salient arguments against it happening as compiled from many other threads.Historically speaking, there have been 6 NFL QBs that have played 10 years before becoming a Top 5 QB (Rich Gannon, Steve Beuerlein, Vinny Testaverde, Lynn Dickey, Joe Theismann, and Trent Green).In 11 seasons to date, Collins has passed for 4,000 yards only once and only one other time has he had 3,700 yards. In 8 seasons, he was under 3,500 yards including 6 uner 3,000.He's had 20 TD passes twice with a career high of 22. His career TD/INT ratio is 153 to 154. His career best fantasy rank was 8th (with no other Top 10 finishes). He's only played 16 games in a season three times.On paper, Oakland does seem to be a potential bevy of fantasy production. But I think there will be someone in every league that thinks Collins will be a Top 5 QB and will draft him as such (or pretty close). I'm not sure I want to gamble that he will outproduce his draft position, so IMO Collins will not be a value pick in 2005.
Holy Schneikes
Footballguy
For a change, I believe the hype.Here's an exersize:Make your projections for Moss, Porter, Curry, Gabriel, Jolley, Teyo Johnson, all of the RBs (Jordan can catch BTW). Add those numbers up. Assuming he stays healthy (a decent assumption in this case), that's what Collins will have. Simple, but enlightening.
Stinkin Ref
IBL Representative
these are the kind of threads that make FBG's worth the money......we are already thinking about stuff like this and you are bound to get a variety of responses....but thats what we want...what was always nice about Culpepper was that it was kind of like having a piece of Moss as well....not only did you get the benefits of Culpepper's talent....but you got some of Moss's huge stats as well.....there were probably manty times that Moss made something out of an average to below average throw from Culpepper....he has that kind of talent....most of the posts so far are correct....somebody is going to jump all over him....the question is will it be you....and I don't know what "too early" is as far as a round goes.....I think it totally depends on what othr QB's have been taken or are still available....not necessarily what round you are in...personally I think Collins has the opportunity to put up some monster stats this year....when thinking of Collins I think we have to give some credit to his past, but we should not rely on it too heavily.....this is uncharted territory for him....the opportunity to play with the best WR in the game....that will change things for any QB....imagine what Manning could do with Moss.....Collins likes to sling the ball around the yard...he has many weapons.....I think the guy can play and I think he has a shot to be in the top 5....we won't know until the season is already underway...but by then it is too late...I think Collins is worth a high pick....he is in a situation that is set up perfectly for him....a GREAT stable of WR....not only starters but backups as well...we want to downgrade him because of some of his past blunders...I'm not going to do that....he played well, very well, at times last year....things have improved for him...I expect big things...but that doesn't mean I will draft him.....
Jason Wood
Zoo York
In answer to your question. Too High
wannabee
Footballguy
I have thought about this since the Moss signing. One thing we usually leave out of these discussions is the difficulty of the division. That division, with the exception of KC, should have good defenses. Also, do you think OAK will use Moss in the red zone like Minn? I do not think so. I think Jordan and Crockett will get red zone carries. I put the ceiling of TDs at 25 throwing and 1 rush.
David Yudkin
Footballguy
I haven't really gotten into the swing of things yet, but maybe we need to reengineer what a Top 5 QB will have to produce . . .Over the past 3 years, the #5 QB has averaged 311 fantasy points scored using the FBG scoring system. Fantasy Points = (Pass Yards)/20 + (Rush Yd + Rec Yd)/10 + (Pass TDs)*4 + (Rush TDs + Rec TDs)*6 - (INTs)*1Collins hasn't done much on the ground in the past, so let's give him 50 rushing yards and a rushing TD for 11 fantasy points on the ground (he had a TOTAL of 14 fantasy points scored on the ground in the past 4 years combined).Conveniently, that means Collins would need 300 fantasy points through the air. That would mean Collins would have to post something similar to: 4,000 passing yards, 30 TD, and 20 INT on the season to get 300 fantasy points through the air.I'm not saying that Collins can't do it, but that's the thresh hold he needs to produce at to merit Top 5 consideration.By comparison, Culpepper had one 4,000 yard passing season and two seasons with 30+ TD in 5 years playing with Moss in Minnesota (with the Vikings defense every bit as pourous as the Raiders has been).In the past 10 years, here are all the 4,000/30 passing seasons:2004: Culpepper, Manning, Favre2003: None2002: None2001: Warner2000: Manning, Garcia1999: Warner, Beuerlein1998: Favre, Young1997: None1996: Testaverde1995: Favre, Mitchell, MoonI suspect that Collins will have to gain more on the ground to get into the top tier of QB unless he has some MONSTER passing numbers.
Last edited by a moderator:
Holy Schneikes
Footballguy
Oakland QBs had 24 passing TDs LAST YEAR. The cap with Moss, a true feature back, and an improved Gallery is a one TD improvement?
Last edited by a moderator:
Stinkin Ref
IBL Representative
ManningCulpepperMcNabbthen I think you could make a case for him anywhere after that....would you be taking a chance....sure...so that might be a good thing to add to the equation....can your team....or does your team need to take that chance if he is available with your next pick....HassGreenVickFavreBradyBulgerBrooksMcNairI'd say if I had to draft today I might drink the kool aid and be willing to take a chance on Collins as the 4th fantasy QB....I don't think it is unrealistic to think that he AVERAGES 2+ TD's a game...so 32 +...would be a starting point....Porter and Moss.....pretty saltyedit to add: every league that I am in now gives 6 points for a passing TD....not sure if 4 points for a passing TD is still the "norm"....
Last edited by a moderator:
babydemon90
Footballguy
I find it curious that for your "threshold" for top 5, there hasn't been a year in recent history that 5 QB's would have made top5 that year. Quite a few years NO Qb's made top 5....Maybe lower the threshold??
David Yudkin
Footballguy
I love the way people think sometimes. Sounds easy enough, doesn't it?Since 1960, there have been only 32 QB that have had 32 TD passes in a season.
Last year, with a slightly less experienced line, less pre-season time with the #1 offense that Gannon had, and not playing in the first two games, he still amassed 3,495 yards, 21 TD's and 20 interceptions.With Moss and all of the other WR's and a moderately talented Lamont Jordan, and presuming he starts all 16 games and gets all of the pre-season first team reps, I see him with:30 passing TD's23 Int's4,200 yards passing70 yards rushing1 rushing TD'sThose numbers place him in the #4 to #6 range for me. If he is still available after 6 other QB's have been taken, I think you have gotten value for your pick.
bostonfred
Footballguy
The rest of the QBs who did it got more rushing yards. Collins traditionally doesn't, so David is pointing out what he'd have to get for passing yards to make up for it. Basically his point is that, if you're excited about how well Collins will do passing to Moss and Porter, you have to temper your enthusiasm by realizing that passing alone doesn't get you into the top 5 very easily.
Jason Wood
Zoo York
Exactly. Add to that a long history of Collins on field level of production, and it's clear to me that WAY too many people will be assuming 30+ TDs for Collins as a rule, and drafting him accordlingly; which means he's not going to be on any of my squads conceptually.
David Yudkin
Footballguy
I didn't make up the numbers . . . I used the actual results for FANTASY Top 5 QBs. You are forgetting to add in rushing statistics when reviewing the numbers. Collins generally avoids running the ball, while other QBs (Culpepper, McNabb, Young, etc.) got a big boost in their totals from rushing numbers.There's no reason to adjust the threshold -- that's what the bar was, I didn't set it or change it.
bostonfred
Footballguy
Here's four QBs that have averaged 2 TDs a game recently:Randall Cunningham (throwing to Moss)
Jeff George (23 TDs in 11 games throwing to Moss)
Daunte Culpepper (throwing to Moss)
Gus Frerotte (7 TDs in 3 games throwing to Moss)
babydemon90
Footballguy
eh, good point, I skimmed over the rushing yards point. Collins won't beat anyone there....didn't have a year or 2 he finished with negative yards??I'd project him passing for 3900 yds, 25 TD's, 19 INT's.
Stinkin Ref
IBL Representative
precisely why I commented on "history" in other posts above.....many of you will base some/much your opinion/projections based on Collin's history and the history of other QB's....I for one think this is one of those situations where history does not play as much of a factor....I don't think adding a WR of Moss's calibur to a team that already has a quality stable of WR's can adequately be measured/factored in to historical stats....I know all the "past is the best predictor of the future crap"......I just don't think it applies as much in this situation....I am merely looking at the reality of the situation....Kyle Boller could probably throw 25 TD's to that WR crew....I'll give Collins a little more credit...
David Yudkin
Footballguy
Only Cunningham and Culpepper met the condition that I stated (32 TD passes in a season).Look, I'm not saying that Collins is going to bomb, but if someone drafts him as a Top 5 QB this year (and many seem ready to do so), he is going to have limited upside. We already determined that he'd likely have to have a MINIMUM of 4,000 passing yards and 30 TD to rank as the #5 QB. How much more than that are you likely to get out of him?
If you think he can be Top 3, the bar is raised from 311 fantasy points to 329 fantasy points (that's the average of the #3 QB over the past 3 years). So instead of 4000/30, he'd need in the vicinity of 4200/35 (with 20 INT).
There's only been 14 times where a QB has had 35+ TD. And there's only been 32 seasons that a QB had 4,200 yards passing.
I suppose he could throw for fewer interceptions, but over his career (including playoffs), he's averaged a pick every 28.7 passing attempts. If Collins has 600 attempts this year, using the same ratio he'd have 21 interceptions on the season.
Last edited by a moderator:
schooner44
Footballguy
I have always beleived Collins has ALL the tools to be an extremely solid QB. With Moss in the mix, he now has all the weapons also. Exccellent and deep WR corp, average running game (depending on wjat Jordan does), solid O-line and weak defense. Combine this with his size and arm strength, he should post numbers that warrant him in the 6-8 QB pick but not top 5. His high arching longball and Moss' ability to go up and get a pass reminds me of the days in Cincy with Jeff Blake and Carl Pickens. His big down side is the mental aspect of his game and indecisiveness as far as not forcing the throw.I would love to have Collins as my starter next year but he will be too over-valued in the draft to really consider it an option. Trent Green's favor has fallen off considerably in the fantasy community and I think the two will have similar numbers this year. I'd rather take Green in the 7th round than Collins in the 4th.
Stinkin Ref
IBL Representative
his "value" may be the topic for another thread....to answer the question above...I'd say his stock has risen tremendously ....sounds like most think he has a shot to put up top 5 numbers......who wouldn't want a top 5 QB on their roster....?....value may be another answer.....who knows whether or not you will be able to get value for him in your draft....we never really know how much "value" we got in our draft until the season is over (technically).....and each draft will be differentso if we had to draft today....what QB's would you have ranked in front of him...?....thats about all we can answer now....I say not too many....value is another discussion.....what is the value of the 5th ranked QB....?...depends on a lot of factors.....
Last edited by a moderator:
bostonfred
Footballguy
I think with QBs, you have to modify your projections a little. The value of a top QB is much higher than the value of an average QB, while average QBs (if you have roster spots and/or the waiver wire) are ubiquitous. Normally, I use an expected value approach to valuing players, but I think you have to weight upside more heavily at QB, especially when it is relatively likely and the upside is so high. Actually, to state it better, your downside risk weighs less heavily if you get a decent backup because if he busts, the guy you replace him with moves into your lineup. Let's say I think Collins has a 30% chance of getting 320 points, a 40% chance of getting 270, and a 30% chance of getting 200. Normally, I'd give him an EV of .30(320) + .40(280) + .30(200) = 268. But I plan on taking a backup who will score about 250. Now I can really look at Collins' downside as being 250, not 200, because I'd swap in my backup in at some point if Collins busts. Rerunning those numbers, he's now worth 283, and I'd take Collins earlier. His high likely value and huge upside made him more valuable. In other words, there's a good argument for taking a shot with Collins, compared to some of the other QBs whose upside is somewhat capped. (Note that if I did the same thing with running backs, though, my backup's value would be much lower, so I have to take a stricter EV, which explains why the stud RB theory usually works, and also why it didn't do as well last year because there were (at least in my opinion) more quality waiver wire pickups than usual.)
Stinkin Ref
IBL Representative
this means very little.....but....in terms of fantasy......as it stands right now...I wouldn't want to see Collins in my opponents starting lineup....him instead of Manning, Culpepper, McNabb....yeah probably....but after that I think Collins will be as/more dangerous than anybody.....I see him having quite a few huge games next year and winning some fantsy games by himself for many owners....similiar to the Manning/Culpeppers of the world....you can't really put a value on carrying your fantasy team on some weeks when the rest of your guys don't pan out....I think Collins will have that kind of potential next year....thus I drink the kool aid....
ConstruxBoy
Kate's Daddy
I think he's overvalued a bit. I've followed his career as a PSU grad who met him a couple of times in school and I think he will still make some poor throws over the middle that will get picked off. Moss helps some on the long throws, but if Collins gets into a funk, his game could be ruined. He seems to get down on himself alot. Having said that, I'm happy to have picked him up in a dynasty league as the 19th QB off the board. 
Last edited by a moderator:
sparkky
Footballguy
Collins was the 8th qb off the board in a new dynasty league which starts 2 qbs. He went at 5.07.But like I said the round was diceptive because of the line up requirements but being #8 off the board gives some perspective regardless of round taken. I figure about 3700 yards and 32 TD's. Oaklands D just sucks!! They have 6 games against KC, SD and Denver who can all score and have less than stellar Ds themselves. They also play (home) Buff, Miami, Dallas, Giants, Cleveland, (away) Pats, Jets, Philly, Skins and Colts.
Family Matters
Footballguy
I think you will see him go top 5 in many drafts this year. I would not want to take him until about 10-12 ideally. Alot will depend on what poisition you are drafting him in. If you see him as a 5th rounder and you are at the top of the round he'll go earlier than if you are at the bottom of the round and take him late. Overall his ADP is likely to be the 7th QB taken.Also, will he be inconsistent as in the past? This can kill a fantasy team in the playoffs. I know he will have some 300 yard 3 td games but he'll also have a 200 yard, 0 td and 3 int games.
Last edited by a moderator:
KnowledgeReignsSupreme
Footballguy
Let's say you have $20 and you are going to buy the contents of a mystery box. Box #1, you are told, the value of the contents has been at or around $20 the last 3 years. Box #2, you are told, the value of the contents has been at or around $5 the last 3 years, but it has the potential to be worth $20. Which one are you going to buy?
bostonfred
Footballguy
Two problems with this analogy. First, "box #2" has the potential to be worth significantly more than $20. Several QBs that have thrown to Moss have averaged more than 2 TDs per game, and that's a really nice thing to have on your team.
Second, you will also get another box that is worth $15 in case box #2 really is worth just $5. QB is deep this year, so taking a chance on someone with upside really doesn't involve a lot of downside. It's the same reason I would be willing to spend a relatively early pick on Culpepper if he slides far enough in my draft, even though I don't have a lot of faith in him putting up top numbers again - he's got a ton of upside, and there are a lot of quality QBs that you can take if he busts.
In a 14 or 16 team league, I'd downgrade Collins, because your backup QB will be weaker. But in a 10 or 12 teamer, he's a quality option in the early mid rounds.
KnowledgeReignsSupreme
Footballguy
Box #1 has that same potential, without the as much risk.
Not sure what you're saying here. You're saying that you will now have to pay a high price for a QB backup to cover the fact that you overpaid for a QB starter? In fact paying $35 to cover a $20 spot, when someone else is spending that $15 wisely on another starting position?
KnowledgeReignsSupreme
Footballguy
It's interesting, even though you were probably just being funny, that Family Guy quote and image it enacts definitively captures the argument the pro-Collins crowd is using to justify taking him with such a high draft pick. They will be looking to do a hindsight justification of their risky pick. Sure it looks good if it pans out, but we all know it's a bad pick regardless. It's just ego that makes some want to make a move like that so they can brag later. Chances are, people who make those kind of picks constantly don't have much to brag about year in and year out.
bostonfred
Footballguy
No, I'm saying that this year's crop of QBs is really deep, but the slope seems to be pretty flat after the top. I would gladly start at least 15 different QBs this year, but only a couple of them have the weapons to be at the very top. Manning, McNabb, and Collins have the top three WRs in the game. Collins will also be playing some weak pass Ds that have never had a player like Moss in their division before, and they're all going to have to adjust. Oakland will likely be playing in some shootouts, too. This is a legitimately great situation for any QB - the only question is whether this particular QB is good enough to take advantage of it. I think he's at least as good as Gus Frerotte or Randall Cunningham or Jeff George, who were all top 5 QB options when they had a chance to throw to Moss.
But maybe he's not. If I have to rely on making a QBBC out of whichever one of the other top 20 QBs I end up with (Peyton Manning, Daunte Culpepper, Donovan McNabb, Brett Favre, Trent Green, Jake Plummer, Brees/Rivers, Aaron Brooks, Jake Delhomme, Marc Bulger, Michael Vick, Tom Brady, Matt Hasselbeck, Carson Palmer, Byron Leftwich, Chad Pennington, McNair/Volek, or David Carr) then so be it.
I don't think he's going to be that expensive, although I guess it depends on the league. But let me ask you this - who do you think you can get after him, that is sure to be at least as good as him?
Holy Schneikes
Footballguy
You know what else is interesting? Well, nothing in your arrogant but ultimately fatuous post.Let me get this straight:
I like a guy a little better than you like him for the upcoming year. I draft the player and he meets or exceeds my (and your) expectations. Now you claim that it was a "bad pick" anyway just because you say so? What kind of sense does that make? Why are we playing this game if not to act on the few differences between our respective "rankings"? If those picks help us win, aren't they by definition "good picks"?
The only way a "successful" (after the fact) pick could still truly a "bad" pick in a draft format is if you could have gotten that player later in the draft. That isn't (or won't be) the case here. There is a camp that really likes Collins and a camp that doesn't. So if you want him, chances are you will have to pony up a decent pick for him. If you do and he does well, it was a good pick. If you do and he doesn't, it was bad pick. It could not really be any simpler.
I actually tend to be a pretty conservative "drafter" (or bidder). I don't go for a lot of longshots and that actually works very well for me in general. When Priest rolled into KC for example and some folks were calling him Faulk-light, I missed that train. I liked him and the opportunity, but not enough to pull the trigger in a draft early enough to get him. But for the Faulk-light guys who boarded that train - my hat's off to them and yours should be too. Just like it should be if somebody goes for Collins and turns out to be correct. Just get off of your high horse and join the rest of us having fun.
David Yudkin
Footballguy
Cunningham didn't average 2 TD a game in 1999, and neither did Culpepper in 2001, 2002, or 2003. So the implication that the Vikings offense revolved and succeeded around Moss is highly debatable.The yearly Vikings passing TD numbers in the Moss era were 41, 32, 33, 23, 19, 32, and 39. That's 219 TD in 112 games, which is pretty close to 2 per game.This raises the $64,000 question as to what precipitated the high TD total. Was it Moss? Was it the system? Was it the QBs? Was it the surrounding talent? Was it the poor defense?I looked into what impact having a Top 5 WR has had on team's passing TD totals. Since we were reviewing the Moss factor, I looked at the totals since Moss entered the league.The average number of passing TDs for teams with a Top 5 WR was 28.7. The high mark was obviously the Colts last year with 51. The low was 16 by the 1999 Jaguars.Out of 35 opportunities, there were 4 teams that had 35 TD, 14 teams that had 30 TD, 26 that had 25 TD, 31 had 20 TD, and 4 that were under 20 TD.If we want to make a case that Moss will be Top 5 and Porter Top 20, there were 10 occasions when there was a Top 5 and Top 20 WR on the same team. The average was 32.1 passing TD per season.The QBs in those seasons and their fantasy rankings were:Favre (6)Manning (2)Bulger (6)Kitna (8)Manning (2)Maddox (22)Bledsoe (5)Culpepper (1)George (14)Cunningham (3)I think Kitna fits the Collins mold better than say a Manning or Favre. Kitna had some ho hum seasons and then inherited what turned into a decent offense.
Last edited by a moderator:
bostonfred
Footballguy
In seven seasons, the Minnesota offense has generated 39, 32, 18, 23, 33, 31, and 41 passing TDs, respectively, for an average of 31 passing TDs per season, which is almost exactly 2 passing TDs per game. The only QB who failed to achieve 2 TDs per game during that time was Culpepper. Cunningham had 42 TDs through 19 games in 1998-99, before getting yanked at age 36. Jeff George finished the 1999 season for Minnesota with 23 TDs through the next 11 games, giving them a total of 31 through 16 games.
Culpepper had 33 TDs in his first year as starter, then had 14 passing and 5 rushing through 11 games in a 2001 season where he was injured. Todd Bouman came in and threw 8 TDs in three games in backup, so one could argue that the Moss-led offense was still pretty good. Culpepper had another off year in 2002, throwing for only 18 TDs vs 23 INTs. In 2003, Culpepper and Frerotte combined for 32 passing TDs. Culpepper had his best year as a QB in 2004, but his numbers dropped significantly when Moss got hurt.
During Moss's tenure in Minnesota, they've changed coaches, QBs, TEs, running backs and offensive lines, and they've completely revamped their WR corps almost every single year, but they've still been one of the best offenses in the league each year.
I think that speaks pretty well to Oakland's chances of having a top QB.
Dancing Bear
Footballguy
I'm not buying the Collins Kool-Aid.Especially for my leagues where both INT's and fumbles are assessed at -3 points!I see the Top 12 QB's as something like the following ...Tier 1===========CulpepperManningTier 2===========McNabbBrooksBulgerGreenFavreTier 3===========BreesCollinsPlummerVickBradyCollins could pull a rabbit out of his hat or a Moss from his sleeve, but I do not see it transforming him into a Top 5 QB.I see him somewhere around the Top 10. If based on my VBD assessment he provides the best value at some point in my drafts then I will take him, but his ranking will be based on previous performances and "grounded" in Pre-Season performance of the entire Oakland Offense ...
bostonfred
Footballguy
You are aware that Moss went to Oakland, right?
Bob Magaw
Footballguy
interesting thread... david & bostonfred have both supplied some compelling rationale... this subject is so vast, i don't think all the implications have been exhausted yet.it hasn't come up yet, but c-pepp has gotten 32+ TDs two of three seasons he played a full slate of 16 games.it is hard to disentangle all the possible dependent variables... MIN had some killer OLs & great running games... but clearly moss has excelled with other QBs passing to him... some of those seasons in which MIN QBs coincided with moss' presence also include cris carter, which shouldn't be neglected. i wouldn't want to compare porter to a future HOFer... still, he is no slouch, & with curry (assuming he recovers from achilles tendon injury), this could comprise an awesome trio. it is probably ridiculous & absurd to extrapolate moss' stats b4 his hammy injury around week 5... but in his first four games, he scored 7 TDs... it is hard to say what he might have been capable of if healthy for the whole season... but it is not like we need to resort to cherry picking his top four games interspersed throughout the season... we just have to look at how he started the season in his first four CONSECUTIVE games. if he could have somehow miraculously kept up this torrid pace, that would have equated to 28 TDs & obliterated jerry rice's nfl record of 22 TDs (which, i think, was even more impressively set in a strike shortened 12 game season... so there is a precedent for this kind of WR scoring outburst). it is a cliche that many scouts have characterized moss as having possibly the best talent for a WR in the history of the NFL... or at any rate, an easy choice as second after rice... & even those scouts probably concede moss has the superior measurables if not work ethic, precision route running, RAC strength (all admittedly integral WR skills). to the historians amongst us, it may seem far-fetched to extrapolate a mere quarter of a season cross-section. but another player broke a long standing record that stood for around two decades & some thought would stand for a lot longer... manning took out marino's hallowed 48 TDs in a season record.another long standing record that was broken was the TE single season TD record... gates had 12-13 TDs in '04 (?). the point about only 32 QBs getting to 32 TD threshold in last 42 years (?) was well taken... but nearly three QBs did it last season alone... manning & c-pepp of course... but mcnabb at 31 certainly would have made it if he plays the last two games, not to mention owens was injured towards the latter part of the season.one reason these points are worth considering is that we may be in a position to bring together & organize some of these at times seemingly unrelated data points around a coherent & unified theme... last season's more rigid enforcement of the 5 yard chuck rule... much has been made of the enhancement of TE value at the top... & this was clearly the case. but maybe moss' pre-injury scoring outburst was not such an aberration... given some of the above context... & this could in turn bode well for the collins/moss battery. with CBs effectively having their hands tied behind their back downfield, moss has a chance to finish what he started, & build on '04 phenomenal start. i don't want to go out on a limb & predict 22+ TDs & breaking rice's record... but he could do some serious damage if he manages to stay healthy for a full slate of 16 games.there are times when he looks virtually unstoppable. even when bracketed by double coverage, the fact that often times this is executed by defense with either a short zone & over the top help variation, or the CB/S bracketing him from sides deep... due to his speed it seems like he is often able to quickly dispatch one of the two DBs responsible for their half of the double coverage... than he is really in single coverage... & with his 6'4" frame to wall off other DB, & explosive hops to outjump almost all DBs for jump balls, all collins will have to do is wait a few seconds for moss to beat the first man & than launch it towards a point where moss will nearly always have the best shot at it with his athleticism & superior physical tools. i think 32 TDs is an important threshold that david was correct to identify. clearly, depending on how likely some think collins is to get 32 TDs (or not)... that will in turn drive their decision on when it is "good value" to pull the trigger on collins... maybe it isn't top 5... but without rush yards & TDs, if you only think he gets 25 TDs, maybe he isn't even top 10... if you think he IS capable of 32+ TDs, & you can get him around QB7-8, that might start to look attractive.i guess i am in camp that would say few QBs scare me more than collins... after obvious big three of manning, c-pepp & mcnabb. maybe bulger (who i think could be primed for monster season with pace long-term signing stabilizing OL, insertion of s-jax creating smashmouth run game complement, maturation of kevin curtis & shaun mcdonald, despite seeing a lot of action since '02... last season was bulger's first training camp as the full time starter, he alluded to finally being able to wrap his mind around complexity of the offense & just start playing instead of thinking, for the first time developed a deadly accurate deep ball, etc)... i think i would rather face green than collins among my opponents QBs in '05.for some of the aforementioned reasons, there is little doubt in my mind that looking at what collins has done in the past... throwing to grossly inferior WRs to moss... may not be the ideal prognostication tool in this instance. he could be in a completely different game, with a completely different set of rules... throwing to not just one of the best WRs in the game... but in the history of a game... fortuitously coinciding & synched with a potentially massively important rule change (5 yard chuck rrule enforcement) that led to the record broken for QB & TE TDs... & might have led to WR TD record being broken if moss hadn't been injured early in the season.sure, it is of course possible, likely even, that there will be a regression to the mean (for the record, i think it unlikely manning approaches 48 TDs this season... though i don't think it would stun me like many others)... but i guess i am trying to build a case that the rule change may represent a kind of tipping point... in which a series of little changes (many rule changes in preceding decade/s have favored offense... there seems to have been a sustained trend or bias in which NFL front office seems to correlate increased scoring with increased fan excitement, pumped up attendance, TV money, merchandise sales) may now have culminated in a completely changed & different landscape.if so, history would ill prepare us to understand this (league in general & collins specifically). it may take another season for the repercussions to be more fully felt, & have a chance to ripple through our collective understanding, before the implications have a chance to be more fully appreciated.* to use a dorky analogy pretty far afield from NFL :^)... the evolutionary record is "mostly" characterized by long stretches of little or no discernable change. but than things happen in fits & starts... certain environmental pressures & constraints (rule changes), coupled with some chance genetic reshuffling (mutant-like freakish athleticism of moss & gates... "bigger brain" of peyton manning able to take mental "snapshot" of opposing defense & exploit it with superior understanding of best possible run/pass audible in real time)... conspires to create a burgeoning & fluorishing of whole new classes & families of life forms that would have been difficult/nearly impossible to predict in advance (a laypersons feeble attempt to convey gist of late stephen jay gould's "punctuated equilibrium" theory ((controversial initially, but now generally accepted i think))... which as i understand it best explains evolutionary fossil record)... maybe we are witnessing the dawn of a new evolution... in which the NFL landscape will be populated with 30-40 TD QBs, 20+ TD WRs & 12+ TD TEs... & smashmouth running games are dinosaurs of a bygone era. :^)
Last edited by a moderator:
Jason Wood
Zoo York
Yet the reality is quite likely to be -- In order to get him, you have to take him among the top 5, yet you're not going to get top 5 performance in return. Collins is shaping up to be THE overrated/high risk/low reward QB pick of the 2005 fantasy season IMHO.To be clear, I think the addition of Moss to go along with Porter and friends should allow Collins to enjoy a top 10 season. So were he available midway through the draft he would be worth drafting for sure. But, because of the Moss addition, I'm really expecting Collins to be everyone's "breakout" QB pick this year and by draft time, you won't get him for any kind of discount which = not a smart draft pick.
Holy Schneikes
Footballguy
I'm not sure he will end up in the top 5 for draft purposes. He will definitely not ultra-cheap, but I'd bet that Manning, Cpep, McNabb, Brady, Green, maybe Brees all go before him in redrafts. Wouldn't be surprised to see guys like Delhomme and Favre go earlier either. It will be interesting to see where he does actually get taken. If there are enough "pimps" out there, he may well go in the top 5, but I still see more doubters than believers.
David Yudkin
Footballguy
You, my friend, have inadvertantly touched upon the secret of winning at fantasy football. Here is the axiom to live by: IT ONLY TAKES ONE OWNER to be in love with a player for him to go way too early. Every year, there are overhyped players, and while YOU may not even think about looking at Collins until say the #10 QB, SOMEONE will likely think he will be an uber stud and take him around QB5. Recent examples have included Michael Vick, Thomas Jones last year, probably Lamont Jordan this year, etc.Many times, these are also the owners that may take a kicker in the 7th round thinking that that's a good value play.
So let other people hang themselves and go on with taking the proven commodities that will always fall a round or too.
Even if Collins DOES slightly outproduce Favre (as an example), if I got Favre two rounds later, many people don't stop to realize that the Favre owner came out ahead in the long run.
Dancing Bear
Footballguy
This is the key to the draft and the main reason I do not dwell on absolute projection numbers but on Tiers instead.If from a projection perspective, Player A is only 16 to 24 Fantasy Points [on the season] from Player B then they are basically the same player and should be sorted into a specific Tier ...Also, in David Yudkin's example the owner has accumulated two other reasonable roster members prior to drafting essentially the same QB!
Holy Schneikes
Footballguy
It's true, it only takes one owner for a player to go early. But as I said before, I don't think the scenario we are dealing with here is prone to that situation. Collins WILL go fairly high, but I don't think he will go ridiculously high either - nobody sane is going to take him before Manning or Cpep or McNabb go. There is actually a fairly small range between QB 4 and 10 or so where he will realistically go, so if you want him, "for sure" you are going to have to spend that pick to get him or if you like him a fair amount but are willing to risk the wait, he will go a little later.I like Favre (for FF), I think he is generally under-rated. I think he and Collins would both make good QB investments. But lets make some other comparisons/evaluations. Culpepper will take a VERY high pick to get as always, and in my mind he is nowhere near worth the risk. Green is a solid pick, but his likely upside is lower than Collins' (at least in my mind) and he will carry just as high if not higher cost. McNabb will also cost a lot more. Delhomme will cost about the same and his upside AND downside are lower in my opinion. Bulger will probably cost about the same and is much riskier. So other than the big three, who are these proven commodities you can get so cheaply? Favre is a good example I can agree with, but other than that, who's out there that is so darn "safe" and will cost a lot less than Collins? Pennington? Bledsoe? Warner? Harrington? Brooks (actually, Brooks might be a good example, but I'd still rather have Collins).
As for simply going too early, part of that is simply the nature of a draft. Within a round or so, whoever drafts a player always values him higher than anyone else, or someone else would have taken him earlier. That isn't 100% true because of multiple positions and draft order etc, but for the most part, guys are selected by the owners who like them the most. In an auction, it is even more true that whoever likes ANY player the most will get him. There is no big fantasy football secret there.
I still believe his downside is fairly low (again, for those that missed it the first time, Oakland QBs threw for 24 TDs and 4000 passing yards last year on a HORRIBLE team that would really have a lot of trouble getting worse and yes, this was a Norv Turner team) and his upside as high as any QB not named Manning if Moss and the other additions really get this offense moving again.
Sputnikv8
Footballguy
That stat is probably true, but, why did it feel like when I started Collins towards the end of last season he tanked...and then on my bench he had 30+ points? He may put up great numbers, but, consistency is what concerns me.I can keep him for very cheap this year and am contemplating it. I'm not afraid of his season totals being bad, I'm scared of all the peaks and valleys.