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How important are D/ST? (1 Viewer)

Bayhawks

Footballguy
I had a very strange experience yesterday. Because of the recent injuries to J. Jones and Cobb, I have decided to move one of them for help for this season (limited keeper league, and both players have been kept since their rookie years, when they were picked relatively late; thus they are extremely valuable as keepers).

Essentially, I was looking at teams who are out of it for this year, or close enough to out of it that they would be willing to give up a WR who could contribute THIS year for one who could be a stud/top WR for years to come. My best options were weak WR1s/strong WR2s. Obviously none of those guys are WRs that I would normally trade Jones or Cobb for, and I have had no luck streaming D/ST this year, so I asked about KC's D/ST.

His reply: "No way, KC has outscored Jones this year, why would I do KC and _ _ _ _ _ _ _, too?"

Am I wrong, or is this a silly position to take? He's out of it this year, no one in our league keeps D/ST. I've always treated D/ST as less important than position players; do I need to adjust my thinking/strategy, or was this guy just being unreasonable?

 
KC is one of the few exceptions to the rule. You keep them, Seattle, San Fran and a few others, and stream the rest, IMO. I don't think he's being unreasonable - if I had KC, it would take a lot to make me give them up. At the end of the day, points are points, and no position is any less important than any other because they all contribute.

[edit - I just re-read where you said he was already out of it and should be thinking about next year, and yeah, now I think he's being a tad unreasonable. I'm sure KC will be good on D/ST next year, but that position is hard to predict year-to-year I think. If it were me, I'd give up KC this year for a young player that's on his way up for next year.]

 
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KC is one of the few exceptions to the rule. You keep them, Seattle, San Fran and a few others, and stream the rest, IMO. I don't think he's being unreasonable - if I had KC, it would take a lot to make me give them up. At the end of the day, points are points, and no position is any less important than any other because they all contribute.

[edit - I just re-read where you said he was already out of it and should be thinking about next year, and yeah, now I think he's being a tad unreasonable. I'm sure KC will be good on D/ST next year, but that position is hard to predict year-to-year I think. If it were me, I'd give up KC this year for a young player that's on his way up for next year.]
This is where I've always said "just stream them." At the beginning of the year, Seattle and SF were viewed as top D's, while KC wasn't even in the top 10 (as far as I can remember). Right now, in standard scoring, Seattle is a middle of the road FF D/ST, and SF isn't even a starting caliber D (#17), while KC is #1. So, to me, D/ST seems to be more about luck than opportunity. I try to get teams that will generate sacks, because turnovers and D/ST TDs are very hard to predict. Now, KC is leading the league in sacks, but they've also gotten (I think) 5 D/ST TD's. I don't feel like you can count on that to continue.

Anyway, my specific trade scenario doesn't really matter anymore, I'm more looking for discussion on whether I need to adjust my thinking with regards to D/ST.

Thanks for your reply.

 
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do I need to adjust my thinking/strategy, or was this guy just being unreasonable?
By him saying that KC has out scored Julio this year, that immediately tells you he doesn't understand how to judge relative value at different positions. In a keeper league, he's making a big mistake by not taking that trade. But I wouldn't have offered it in the first place, I'd keep my IR players and start thinking about next year.Edit - but now I see your trade offer involved a WR too that you aren't naming. Depending on who that player is, that's probably why he wouldn't do it. Why not name the WR for us?

 
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I don't think you need to adjust your thinking...I think you have to evaluate everything on a case by case basis. KC is an extremely unique situation. I really can't recall a time where 6 weeks in the #1 defense was outscoring the #2 ranked defense by nearly 50%. It's insane. I've streamed for years and was doing so this year fairly unsuccessfully. Somehow I found KC on WW a few weeks back and at this point they are nearly untouchable. It's kind of like having Gronk in your lineup when he was healthy a year or so back. The scoring difference at the position is so large it's like having an extra player in your lineup.

All that being said, I think this is a perfect storm kind of year for KC. I wouldn't adjust your thinking because I think this is clearly an outlier but it's good while it's going.....

 
do I need to adjust my thinking/strategy, or was this guy just being unreasonable?
By him saying that KC has out scored Julio this year, that immediately tells you he doesn't understand how to judge relative value at different positions. In a keeper league, he's making a big mistake by not taking that trade. But I wouldn't have offered it in the first place, I'd keep my IR players and start thinking about next year.Edit - but now I see your trade offer involved a WR too that you aren't naming. Depending on who that player is, that's probably why he wouldn't do it. Why not name the WR for us?
Yeah, that's a pretty crucial detail.

 
I have KC defense in my dynasty league and while I'm not 100% out of it I'm 2-4 and 2nd to last in total pts. So each it unlikel I make the playoffs.

That said, we keep 10 players each year from a 25 man roster. I am certain that at some poit a team in contention will knock on my door trying to trade for KC to put them over the top.

If the offer is right I might bite, but I amswriously considering keeping them. I don't think they are flash in the pan. They are a young, aggressive defense with talent at every level. Dontari po and justin Houston are rising stars. They force turnovers at an alarming rate.

They have shut down some very good offenses this far this year. They have had a DST td in almost very game.

I am very curious to see their 2 matchups vs Denver this year. Should be interesting as I think Denver possesses the only offense in the league that KC won't be able to shut down.

I would trade them for a 1st rd pick next year.

 
Not sure about keeping a defense, lots of considerations based on round drafted and of course the notorious nature of Ds not being consistent year over year. KC's D was atrocious last year. Not that KC won't be good because they are very young, but Chicago was the #1 D last year and they are still a starting D, but they are barely above the last set of starting Ds. Keeping Chicago from last year would have been a waste. Same with Seattle and SF, who were the top two Ds going into the drafts. Seattle is somewhere in the top 5 in most scoring leagues, but they are barely above the middle of the pack of starting Ds, so a waste of a keeper. SF is a backup D right now, not scoring enough to be in the top 12.

That said, for the rest of this year, KC is almost doubling the rest of the starting Ds, so they are hugely valuable. I have them in 1 of 3 leagues and the only thing I am worried about is week 10 (bye), 11 and 13 (Denver for both). This league doesn't penalize negative scores for bad games, so I may still start them.

One thing that is pretty amazing to me is how KC is #1 in just about every scoring mechanism for Ds. They are #1 in sacks, interceptions, fumble recoveries and points against. They are #7 in yards against (Houston is #1, but part of that is due to so many pick-6s), but to me, that is amazing.

 
KC is one of the few exceptions to the rule. You keep them, Seattle, San Fran and a few others, and stream the rest, IMO. I don't think he's being unreasonable - if I had KC, it would take a lot to make me give them up. At the end of the day, points are points, and no position is any less important than any other because they all contribute.

[edit - I just re-read where you said he was already out of it and should be thinking about next year, and yeah, now I think he's being a tad unreasonable. I'm sure KC will be good on D/ST next year, but that position is hard to predict year-to-year I think. If it were me, I'd give up KC this year for a young player that's on his way up for next year.]
This is where I've always said "just stream them." At the beginning of the year, Seattle and SF were viewed as top D's, while KC wasn't even in the top 10 (as far as I can remember). Right now, in standard scoring, Seattle is a middle of the road FF D/ST, and SF isn't even a starting caliber D (#17), while KC is #1. So, to me, D/ST seems to be more about luck than opportunity. I try to get teams that will generate sacks, because turnovers and D/ST TDs are very hard to predict. Now, KC is leading the league in sacks, but they've also gotten (I think) 5 D/ST TD's. I don't feel like you can count on that to continue.

Anyway, my specific trade scenario doesn't really matter anymore, I'm more looking for discussion on whether I need to adjust my thinking with regards to D/ST.

Thanks for your reply.
Top 10? Geez, they were probably not drafted in almost every league. In the same league I mention above, KC finished #31 last year.

 
do I need to adjust my thinking/strategy, or was this guy just being unreasonable?
By him saying that KC has out scored Julio this year, that immediately tells you he doesn't understand how to judge relative value at different positions. In a keeper league, he's making a big mistake by not taking that trade. But I wouldn't have offered it in the first place, I'd keep my IR players and start thinking about next year.Edit - but now I see your trade offer involved a WR too that you aren't naming. Depending on who that player is, that's probably why he wouldn't do it. Why not name the WR for us?
Because it's not a ACF question. I'm not really intersted in whether I was making a good offer/bad offer; rather I'm trying to decide if I'm not valuing D/ST correctly. Suffice it to say, the WR I would get wouldn't be a stud & wouldn't be kept by me.

 
KC is one of the few exceptions to the rule. You keep them, Seattle, San Fran and a few others, and stream the rest, IMO. I don't think he's being unreasonable - if I had KC, it would take a lot to make me give them up. At the end of the day, points are points, and no position is any less important than any other because they all contribute.

[edit - I just re-read where you said he was already out of it and should be thinking about next year, and yeah, now I think he's being a tad unreasonable. I'm sure KC will be good on D/ST next year, but that position is hard to predict year-to-year I think. If it were me, I'd give up KC this year for a young player that's on his way up for next year.]
This is where I've always said "just stream them." At the beginning of the year, Seattle and SF were viewed as top D's, while KC wasn't even in the top 10 (as far as I can remember). Right now, in standard scoring, Seattle is a middle of the road FF D/ST, and SF isn't even a starting caliber D (#17), while KC is #1. So, to me, D/ST seems to be more about luck than opportunity. I try to get teams that will generate sacks, because turnovers and D/ST TDs are very hard to predict. Now, KC is leading the league in sacks, but they've also gotten (I think) 5 D/ST TD's. I don't feel like you can count on that to continue.

Anyway, my specific trade scenario doesn't really matter anymore, I'm more looking for discussion on whether I need to adjust my thinking with regards to D/ST.

Thanks for your reply.
That's very true - my thinking is that in leagues where most of the owners roster a D/ST for the season, if you're one of the owners with Seattle, you might be in a better position over the course of the season than an owner that streams - they're middle of the road, but they're generally pretty consistent. Streaming (and I do it and I enjoy it) does have ups and downs and can be a drag (ask me how much I liked my decision to stream the Jets last week). San Francisco might not have been the best example.

 
do I need to adjust my thinking/strategy, or was this guy just being unreasonable?
By him saying that KC has out scored Julio this year, that immediately tells you he doesn't understand how to judge relative value at different positions. In a keeper league, he's making a big mistake by not taking that trade. But I wouldn't have offered it in the first place, I'd keep my IR players and start thinking about next year.Edit - but now I see your trade offer involved a WR too that you aren't naming. Depending on who that player is, that's probably why he wouldn't do it. Why not name the WR for us?
Actually, the KC D owner does understand relative value. By him saying that statement, that a D is outscoring the #1 WR (before his bye), he is saying KC is a ridiculous value. Julio wasn't outscoring the rest of the stud WRs by much, so his relative value to say Demaryius or Dez or AJ, etc., isn't that high, but KC in my league has 93 points and the second closest is at 57. This is in a league with low points for Ds (1 point per turnover and no points for yards), and they are still 6 ppg better than the #2 D. Feel free to find any position player that is doing that and I would bet you won't except maybe Peyton Manning. Relatively speaking, KC could be the most valuable player aside from Manning, which in my books means the KC D owner does understand relative value.

That said, Ds are notoriously inconsistent, but this year might be an exception as the KC D is filled with young 1st round talents. We could easily be seeing the start of a consistent stud D for many years, so even in keeper leagues, the KC D owner might be smarter to not make the trade. WRs are always deep and the spread is not what you think it is.

 
do I need to adjust my thinking/strategy, or was this guy just being unreasonable?
By him saying that KC has out scored Julio this year, that immediately tells you he doesn't understand how to judge relative value at different positions. In a keeper league, he's making a big mistake by not taking that trade. But I wouldn't have offered it in the first place, I'd keep my IR players and start thinking about next year.Edit - but now I see your trade offer involved a WR too that you aren't naming. Depending on who that player is, that's probably why he wouldn't do it. Why not name the WR for us?
Actually, the KC D owner does understand relative value. By him saying that statement, that a D is outscoring the #1 WR (before his bye), he is saying KC is a ridiculous value.
No. It's not just points. Unless this league requires you to start 3 D/ST and only one WR.

In one of my leagues there are ten D/ST with more total points than the highest WR so far (DeSean Jackson). That doesn't make them more valuable than a top 10 WR.

Add the keeper factor in and there is no way you can argue the relative value of any D/ST is comparable to Julio.

 
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It also matters the scoring system in each league.

in my main league scoring for say top 10 at each position for the year has QB highest followed by DEF/ST, then RB, WR, TE, K..

So in leagues like that a DEF/ST can be very very important to your team..

----------

Not trying to answer whether the trade was worth it or not, but just that DEF/ST can be huge when you get an good one in there.

(In my main league I carry 2 all year trying to find "the one" I have KC and no way would I trade them, there set an forget now) :)

 
so your expecting him to tank the season at week 7? nice league
Where did I say that? I was trying to provide some details about where my question came from. he's 1-5. He's 9th in total points. It's extremely unlikely that he's going to make the playoffs. Just as NFL teams make trades to improve their team for the future, so do FFers. I didn't say he should tank the season, just that what he asked for in a trade was more than I thought he should expect to get, and therefore, I was wondering if I needed to adjust my view of team D/ST.

Please, explain how you get "he should tank the season at week 7?" Since you won't be able to do so, please don't clutter the thread with any future pointless posts. Thanks.

 
KC is one of the few exceptions to the rule. You keep them, Seattle, San Fran and a few others, and stream the rest, IMO. I don't think he's being unreasonable - if I had KC, it would take a lot to make me give them up. At the end of the day, points are points, and no position is any less important than any other because they all contribute.

[edit - I just re-read where you said he was already out of it and should be thinking about next year, and yeah, now I think he's being a tad unreasonable. I'm sure KC will be good on D/ST next year, but that position is hard to predict year-to-year I think. If it were me, I'd give up KC this year for a young player that's on his way up for next year.]
This is where I've always said "just stream them." At the beginning of the year, Seattle and SF were viewed as top D's, while KC wasn't even in the top 10 (as far as I can remember). Right now, in standard scoring, Seattle is a middle of the road FF D/ST, and SF isn't even a starting caliber D (#17), while KC is #1. So, to me, D/ST seems to be more about luck than opportunity. I try to get teams that will generate sacks, because turnovers and D/ST TDs are very hard to predict. Now, KC is leading the league in sacks, but they've also gotten (I think) 5 D/ST TD's. I don't feel like you can count on that to continue.

Anyway, my specific trade scenario doesn't really matter anymore, I'm more looking for discussion on whether I need to adjust my thinking with regards to D/ST.

Thanks for your reply.
That's very true - my thinking is that in leagues where most of the owners roster a D/ST for the season, if you're one of the owners with Seattle, you might be in a better position over the course of the season than an owner that streams - they're middle of the road, but they're generally pretty consistent. Streaming (and I do it and I enjoy it) does have ups and downs and can be a drag (ask me how much I liked my decision to stream the Jets last week). San Francisco might not have been the best example.
I wasn't faulting your example, just saying that it's hard to "rely" on a D/ST to be great. Even if they are great at generating sacks, INTs and fumbles can't always be "forced" or predicted, so they are going to be unreliable, and TDs are completely unpredictable.

 
Let's put it this way: in my redraft big money league I picked up and started KC d for week 1 and never let them go. I am sitting at 5-1 in large part BC of them. Their ridiculous scoring out me over the top in a few close wins at least twice so there is a wry real probability that if I didn't have KC d I'd be 3-3 and 3rd or 4th in total points instead of 5-1 and most total points.

Best record and total points wins you money in my league. What are a few wins worth? To me ALOT. It would take an absolute healthy stud to rip KC D out of my Kung fu grip this year.

There was ONE week where their output was "ordinary" and they scored 14 pts. Apart from that they haven't scored under 20 and have several games of over 30 pts.

Think about that. Figure the average starting defense gives you 10-15 pts per week. Starting KC d is like starting a defense and an extra flex STUD Rb or wr

 
do I need to adjust my thinking/strategy, or was this guy just being unreasonable?
By him saying that KC has out scored Julio this year, that immediately tells you he doesn't understand how to judge relative value at different positions. In a keeper league, he's making a big mistake by not taking that trade. But I wouldn't have offered it in the first place, I'd keep my IR players and start thinking about next year.Edit - but now I see your trade offer involved a WR too that you aren't naming. Depending on who that player is, that's probably why he wouldn't do it. Why not name the WR for us?
Actually, the KC D owner does understand relative value. By him saying that statement, that a D is outscoring the #1 WR (before his bye), he is saying KC is a ridiculous value. Julio wasn't outscoring the rest of the stud WRs by much, so his relative value to say Demaryius or Dez or AJ, etc., isn't that high, but KC in my league has 93 points and the second closest is at 57. This is in a league with low points for Ds (1 point per turnover and no points for yards), and they are still 6 ppg better than the #2 D. Feel free to find any position player that is doing that and I would bet you won't except maybe Peyton Manning. Relatively speaking, KC could be the most valuable player aside from Manning, which in my books means the KC D owner does understand relative value.

That said, Ds are notoriously inconsistent, but this year might be an exception as the KC D is filled with young 1st round talents. We could easily be seeing the start of a consistent stud D for many years, so even in keeper leagues, the KC D owner might be smarter to not make the trade. WRs are always deep and the spread is not what you think it is.
Good points. Thanks for posting.

 
do I need to adjust my thinking/strategy, or was this guy just being unreasonable?
By him saying that KC has out scored Julio this year, that immediately tells you he doesn't understand how to judge relative value at different positions. In a keeper league, he's making a big mistake by not taking that trade. But I wouldn't have offered it in the first place, I'd keep my IR players and start thinking about next year.Edit - but now I see your trade offer involved a WR too that you aren't naming. Depending on who that player is, that's probably why he wouldn't do it. Why not name the WR for us?
Actually, the KC D owner does understand relative value. By him saying that statement, that a D is outscoring the #1 WR (before his bye), he is saying KC is a ridiculous value.
No. It's not just points. Unless this league requires you to start 3 D/ST and only one WR.

In one of my leagues there are ten D/ST with more total points than the highest WR so far (DeSean Jackson). That doesn't make them more valuable than a top 10 WR.

Add the keeper factor in and there is no way you can argue the relative value of any D/ST is comparable to Julio.
Also a good point. Thanks.

 
Let's put it this way: in my redraft big money league I picked up and started KC d for week 1 and never let them go. I am sitting at 5-1 in large part BC of them. Their ridiculous scoring out me over the top in a few close wins at least twice so there is a wry real probability that if I didn't have KC d I'd be 3-3 and 3rd or 4th in total points instead of 5-1 and most total points.

Best record and total points wins you money in my league. What are a few wins worth? To me ALOT. It would take an absolute healthy stud to rip KC D out of my Kung fu grip this year.

There was ONE week where their output was "ordinary" and they scored 14 pts. Apart from that they haven't scored under 20 and have several games of over 30 pts.

Think about that. Figure the average starting defense gives you 10-15 pts per week. Starting KC d is like starting a defense and an extra flex STUD Rb or wr
You are right about this. But I keep coming back to the question of: will it continue? If you have that stud RB/WR, you know he is going to get carries/targets on a weekly basis. If you are talking about a flex RB/WR, you are hoping he will get the touches/targets to put up points. While I expect KC to keep getting the sacks, can we count on them to keep getting INTs and recover fumbles? Can we expect them to keep scoring almost a TD every week? I've always considered D/ST to be less predictable, and therefore, less reliable, and therefore I've valued them less.

ETA-my league doesn't give points for points allowed or yards allowed, just sacks, turnovers, safeties, and TDs scored.

 
Can't wait for a pick 6 against Houston this week!!! Just another reason why drafting a D is not wise until later rounds. Balt D came of the board in the 9th rd in my league...

 
It depends on the D/ST scoring but I've seen many leagues move to a format that awards a certain amount to each D/ST and deducts 1pt for every 1pt scored. In this format it is imperative that you hold 2-3 defenses just to avoid the potential for negative fantasy points!

 
I think finding the top defenses are vastly under-rated... I never understand the argument "I just like to pick up a defense with a good match-up every week"... I get it you pick a defense that plays a crappy offense.... it is a "good" strategy.. but not necessarily a "great" one. First of all, because other teams are trying to do the same thing, so there is a chance you are stuck with crap on defense, and secondly i think it gets really old trying to predict every week which defense will have a good week, and at some point you are going to be wrong.

I have always tried to find that waiver wire defense that blows up. San Francisco 2011, Chicago Bears i believe it was '06 when they went to the Superbowl, the Saint's DEF in '09 when they went to the Superbowl and were killing it with Defensive TD's, and Turnovers. and the years before that I had the Ravens during their prime every year. Defenses win championships, point blank. Having a defense that averages 10-20 points weekly has so much value on the basis of "consistency" for your team versus a team that blows up one week, and than gets you 2 points the next week. Much like kickers, which is a whole other discussion.

The way Kansas City is playing this year, is averaging 20 pts a week. That is ridiculous. Others have said there is no way they keep up that pace. While this is most likely true, the TD's they have scored this year have come on a blocked punt, a kick off return for a TD, an Interception, and Fumble recovery for a TD. Like others have said they are leading the league in Fumble recoveries, interceptions, and sacks with "30!!!!", and are allowing the least amount of points per game. They are carrying my team, and with Andy Reid there, and a group of very young talented guys there, I am definitely planning on keeping them next year. They are far too valuable. I can keep them for a "9th" round pick, and I am almost positive they will be taken sooner in our draft because others like me value finding that top Defense. Now one thing is for certain, Kansas City's schedule this year has been amazing based on the circumstances that they have fell into.

I definitely want to see how they fair against tougher opponents like San Diego and Denver, but after watching them play live in several games now. They definitely pass the eye ball test. I mean they did what they did last week against Oakland without Brandon Flowers, or Justin Houston. That says something even though it was Oakland.

 
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CBS had the Chiefs defense ranked #19. While defenses are pretty hard to predict, they totally missed the boat as did many other sites.

Can you expect them to keep scoring TDs each week? Not really...but at what point do you start to lose faith that they won't? With key players out last week, they steamrolled Oakland. To me, I think they are playing in a great system, have successful gameplans/coaches and the players just keep making plays. Backups are even making big plays.

I'm lucky that everyone in my big money league (myself included) wasn't 100% sold on them since they started off against JAX. I grabbed them for Week 2 and have had them securely positioned in my lineup ever since. In my league, they are averaging over 25 points/week and are the #6 OVERALL scorer...well ahead of guys like J. Charles, L. McCoy, A. Rodgers, etc. Crazy.

 
It's like the Bears D start of last year in terms of points.

Only Manning, Brees, Rivers and Romo have more total points than KC D. Add in Rodgers and Blackmen ahead of them when you switch to PPG.

That's ONLY QBs scoring more in pure pts. That's insane. Better than any RB WR and Graham in my league which has fairly standard defensive scoring.

 
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It's like the Bears D start of last year in terms of points.

Only Manning, Brees, Rivers and Romo have more total points than KC D. Add in Rodgers and Blackmen ahead of them when you switch to PPG.

That's ONLY QBs scoring more in pure pts. That's insane. Better than any RB WR and Graham in my league which has fairly standard defensive scoring.
Based on this post, and some of the others I've been reading, part of the way I value D/ST is the way my league scores them.

As I previously posted, we only get points for sacks, turnovers, safeties, and TDs.

In my league, KC is not 5th in overall points, they are 37th. And, a large part of them even being that high is due to their 5 TDs. Those might continue, but (IMO), they aren't something you should expect. Assuming KC continues sacking the QB and forcing turnovers, but subtract the TDs, and they aren't nearly as valuable.

If my league gave points for yards allowed & points allowed, I think I'd value D/ST more, because those kinds of things are more predictable and reliable than scoring D/ST TDs.

 
The only problem with KC is they have two matchups with Denver. They close with a very good schedule I think. They could help win a championship.

Seattle's schedule has some bumps (the Saints for one, SF for another). Like KC they could help win a championship. I'm trying to trade SEA DST in one league because I need WR help. I know in the past I've actually tried to trade for great defenses and you can't pry them from people (even though I view them differently). DST's have problems in that no matter how good some should be benched at least typically 1-3 weeks in bad matchups, or leave them in and take lumps or get lucky, or add a player and lose a bench spot. Sea vs NO, and KC vs DEN x2 for example.

I'd say the guy (offeree) in the OP is being reasonable, but he maybe should reconsider if it means losing out on Cobb for the next 2-3 years.

 
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in one league im in defenses get between 0 and 10 points in a given week.

in another they get 20-30 depends on your league scoring and what not.

plan accordingly

 

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