How important is it to nail your first round pick? (1 Viewer)

[Dr. Octopus]

Everyone always references Fred Taylor. Are there any others that we can come up with? One player does not disprove the theory.

Steven Jackson, Frank Gore, Isaac Bruce, Aaron Rodgers (yes he had the injury prone label for a while), Matt Stafford, etc.

I'll give you Gore and Stafford. Those are good ones. I still consider Jackson to come with some injury risk, Bruce wasn't ever an injury risk (he missed multiple games in 5 out of 15 years, one of which was the year he retired), and I never considered Rodgers an injury risk.

Issac Bruce missed 15 games in 1997 and 1998 seasons with hamstring injuries and the talk was that he was injury prone. Then, as you pointed out, all of a sudden he didn't miss games for a long while.Aaron Rodgers replaced Brett Favre in a game against the Cowboys, was injured in that game - then was injured in practice leading up to what was to be his first start and "fragile" was being tossed around. People were laughing at the Packers on these boards that they were heading into the season with only Matty Flynn (who at the time was considered a project) backing up Rodgers after Favre left with Rodgers being so soft. Frank Gored was always considered an injury risk and now in this thread he's being praised for his toughness.Those were just a few quick examples - it happens all the time though.

 

[Dr. Octopus]

Stafford and Rodgers were never on my list.

Since you have the "real" list of injury prone players, maybe you can share it with the rest of us.

 

[MAC_32]

Stafford and Rodgers were never on my list. Jackson only was the year he held out, for good reason. His physical style and high quantity of career touches is starting to be a concern though. Doubt he's on any of my teams this year because I'm looking at RB's early and WR's and QB around his ADP.Gore's been on the list for a while though, and I see no reason why he shouldn't be on there. Been running on bionic knees since coming into the league and constantly misses game time. I rode him his first big year because he was cheap, but I've stayed away from him since.I'm getting wary about Andre Johnson too, not so much that I'll avoid him but enough to knock him down a round - seems most have. His injury last year is sending up red flags as he just can't seem to stay away from those lower body injuries. If I can find someone with a young WR and either a decent RB2 or an Aaron Hernandez type TE I'll move him in my dyno.

To be fair though, Andre Johnson has only missed more than 3 games in a season twice in a 9 year career. I agree, he seems to get banged up a lot, but if I had to guess I'd say he's a lot more likely to miss just a couple games this season rather than a significant portion.

He had the knee issues then the hamstring on a non contact play, those are probably related issues. Since he usually hasn't missed a lot of time with his injuries and he has returned to dominance quickly once healthy I'm still willing to take on some risk with him.

 

[butcher boy]

Frank Gored was always considered an injury risk and now in this thread he's being praised for his toughness.

He's admittedly a bad example because he IS injury prone. He plays through a ton of his injuries though.

 

[MAC_32]

Stafford and Rodgers were never on my list.

Since you have the "real" list of injury prone players, maybe you can share it with the rest of us.

If you really want to know I'm sure you could use the search function about who I'm concerned about injury-wise and who I'm not.I don't bat 1.000, no one does, but I think I do better than most.

 

[Black]

NOTE: I use ADP here a bunch, and I mean Avg Draft Position.

I thought I would answer the original poster's question...b/c it is very interesting.

I don't think your first round pick will win or lose your league. I prefer 'safer' picks, even if it means letting value slip, but sometimes the safer pick is a Darren McFadden in the 1st, and whoever the handcuff is in the 14th: lock up the OAK RBs. Sometimes it's a WR or QB with steady production over the last few years. Sometimes it's a new, young guy who is likely to have low injury risk. I recall for years a 'safe' first round pick was Rudi Johnson...1000 yards and 10 tds. And he was safe until...well, until he wasn't. But the last year he dropped off, it was probably not too hard to guess that based on his workload that the end was near.

I think what type of player you take early in the draft is a function of what you PLAN to take in the draft. This in in terms of position, backups, and perceived injury or 'suck' risk. So if you have players who are high-upside, but have risk of injury or play on a bad team, then counter that with the Rudi Johnson or non-Stafford QB first round pick.

I never know who exactly I am going to take anywhere in the draft, but I take ADP, mark up each round approximately, then figure out who is likely to be available in later rounds. I work backwards from there. If there's 4 awesome sleeper QB/TEs in later rounds, I won't be taking a QB/TE in early rounds. That and/or tiering govern my drafts. Maybe it will help you to make a 1st round decision.

Ok so the elephant in the room is the injury question. What is injury risk, injury prone, injury history? You think you don't know, but you DO know. Everyone has their version of risk-tolerance. For me, any player who's had a bad injury is going to have a higher incidence of possible injury in the future. Any player who is smaller or plays the game in a way that often puts themselves in harm's way: risk (DeSean Jackson, Johnny Knox). I don't have injury stats, I just have players I have an asterix next to when I draft. But, I group those players alongside Rookies, one-year wonders, and players who are on bad teams.

Last year, I was not going to touch Reggie Bush (not with an early pick) or Cam Newton (at all). I ended up taking Reggie Bush later in the draft, because eventually they ARE worth the pick as they fall. I was dead wrong on Cam, who I could have had with a 14th round pick? But, I drafted Brady and was pretty happy with that. Most of the time someone else will take a 'risk' player before I am comfortable taking them. But, for me most players do have a price.

Why pick on Stafford? Because he has missed a ton of games. Is he beyond that? Is he ever going to get hurt again? I don't know. But I personally would take a number of QBs over him at the same ADP, or a couple of guys much later in the draft. Or, if he slid a round or two, I would love to have him, then back him up with a Ben Roethlisberger in round 8-10.

Some examples of players that I would not take at their ADP were guys like Felix Jones, Micheal Turner/SJax/Gore/Boldin/Colston due to total wear and tear and some injury history. Are these guys injury prone? Not sure. I just prefer other players at their ADP based on the perceived risk.

Then, there's always the season ender that noone predicts on young guys with no injury history (Jamaal Charles) or 'iron men' like Tom Brady who've done it year after year with no injury.

I drafted Tom Brady in the first round (in 2-person keeper, so prob mid 2nd round equivalent) the year he blew out his ACL. It was probably the safest draft pick I have ever made. I did not draft a backup. I still managed to win my league that year. Granted, it was a 10 team league with PPR, so replacement QBs are find-able in that small a league and scoring slightly balanced with the PPR aspect. But, the rest of my team was still balanced, so I could win with Kyle Orton and Tyler Thigpen as my QBs.

So the answer...in 1000 words or less: pick who you like in the first round and who you think will perform the best. If the player is 'risky' for any reason, then balance them with the actual handcuff, or more possible safe backups later in the draft.

 

[Tchula]

I won a league with Charles in the first and Ingram in the 4th last year, so careful WW scouting and a timely trade or 2 can overcome a bad first round pick.... once in awhile

 

[RhythMan2112]

In 2007, I drafted Travis Henry and Javon Walker at the turnaround, when they were both coming off good years. Both were on the bench for me by week 6. It's about value late in the draft, and being a hound on the WW, along with getting the most value for your trade dollar. I drafted Welker in the 13th round that year, and made a trade for Jason Witten, and it lead me to my title game.

 

[Monsters of the Midway]

I won a league with Charles in the first and Ingram in the 4th last year, so careful WW scouting and a timely trade or 2 can overcome a bad first round pick.... once in awhile

I also drafted Charles in the 1st last year. I was able to draft some later gems-Jimmy Graham, Sproles and Steve Smith. I also had consistent guys like Brady and Maclin.I finished 7th my leagues are 12 teams, huge rosters (25-30 rounds) and very little free agent pickups so you really can't work around injuries to your studs. My leagues are unusal so I have an unusually large bias toward being conserative in the first round, maybe 2nd too. To be fair, I have to disclose that I passed on McFadden and Arian Foster for Charles largely because of injury concerns. I liked Charles better than McFadden anyway, but still. So I am, in fact, an idiot

 

[johnadams]

Whiffing in the first won't necessarily sink your team, but it's a pretty good recipe. In reality, and I have absolutely no empirical data, I try to figure that I'm going to whiff on at least one of my top three picks, which means rounds 6+ are so important in terms of getting someone who will outperform their draft position. Waiver wire is also another huge factor, especially early which is why I don't mind burning auction dollars or waiver position in the first 3-4 weeks.

 

[Willie Neslon]

You can not win a SB with your first pick. However, you can lose a SB with your first pick. Make it count!

It won't make you but it can surely break you.

 

[amicsta]

Just to deviate a little bit and play devils advocate, isnt it sometimes better to have a player that you worry about injury with so that you already are prepared when he goes down? Or better yet, isnt the moral here to just always be prepared when it comes to rbs and have depth? I mean whether its a mcfadden, who you "expect", or a charles, who you "dont expect", when it comes to early rbs, youre putting yourself in a tough spot if you dont aquire quality rb depth. The teams who made sure they got michael bush or a quality backup for mcfadden definately panned out better than those who drafted charles and felt he was "safe". At the end of the day, football is a contact sport and injuries will always happen. You can never afford to feel "safe" at the rb position.

 

[amicsta]

And to follow that up, if the motto is to always be prepared, then shouldnt we just draft TALENT and USAGE? That combination would seem to lend itself to more success

 

[Mr.Underhill]

I don't see it as just another pick. While it's certainly possible to overcome a bad first round pick, it's much more difficult to make up the productivity that a true first round stud gives you. You really have to nail your mid and late round picks to overcome it. I wonder, of the people who picked CJ, DMC, or Vick last year, how many also drafted Newton or Gronk or other mid-round guys who exploded?I don't completely avoid risky guys in the first round, but some guys just scream "draft me and regret it later" and I will definitely avoid them even if VBD says otherwise.

Good posting. This is my position as well.That first round guy is not only a starter, but he's your top starter at his position and likely your stud starter. If he goes down, your margin for error in the later rounds shrinks dramatically.Why is that margin for error different? Trying to replace a fizzle at your bye-week WR fill-in via the waiver wire is much less difficult than is trying to replace a 20 carry bell cow via the waiver wire. Even the NFL back-up to your lost player won't be guaranteed to equal his production if you added him in through waivers or with a late draft pick.Can it be overcome? For sure. Particularly if rosters are small and the skill differential between the best and worst owners is significant. But missing on that guy and not knowing until the draft is over is actually more difficult than going into the draft knowing you have no first round pick. And I don't see too many people volunteering to go into a draft with no first round pick and two last round picks.For the people that say it's just another pick, you should then be trading it away for just another pick. I suspect it's still considered pretty important by virtue of peoples' actions even if peoples' words downplay the importance.

 

[voiceofunreason]

The thread is a perfect summary for those who wonder why guys who are hurt every year still get taken in the first round.

 

[Mr.Underhill]

In 2007, I drafted Travis Henry and Javon Walker at the turnaround, when they were both coming off good years. Both were on the bench for me by week 6. It's about value late in the draft, and being a hound on the WW, along with getting the most value for your trade dollar. I drafted Welker in the 13th round that year, and made a trade for Jason Witten, and it lead me to my title game.

So you're saying that if the other owners aren't watching the shark pool hype train threads, you have waiver wire rules that allow someone to start making waiver moves when normal people are still in bed, and can use the Jedi mind trick on weak minded trade partners, you can over come the early round misses.Value late in the draft is significantly dependent on the quality of your competition.

Waiver wire success is significantly dependent on your rules and the quality of your competition.

Trade valuation is completely dependent on the quality of your competition.

I think we can safely say that it's easier to overcome a miss in the early rounds if you're playing with noobs than it is if you are playing in a league of equally skilled players who can afford to spend as much time on the hobby as you do.

 

[meatwad1]

I think first rounders are very important. If you miss on it, you are scrambling all year to replace that production. Sure a great owner will have a few late round/ww gems that will compensate, but if your first round pick pans out, that is the difference between dominating and scavenging for the last playoff spot.

 

[meatwad1]

In 2007, I drafted Travis Henry and Javon Walker at the turnaround, when they were both coming off good years. Both were on the bench for me by week 6. It's about value late in the draft, and being a hound on the WW, along with getting the most value for your trade dollar. I drafted Welker in the 13th round that year, and made a trade for Jason Witten, and it lead me to my title game.

So you're saying that if the other owners aren't watching the shark pool hype train threads, you have waiver wire rules that allow someone to start making waiver moves when normal people are still in bed, and can use the Jedi mind trick on weak minded trade partners, you can over come the early round misses.Value late in the draft is significantly dependent on the quality of your competition.

Waiver wire success is significantly dependent on your rules and the quality of your competition.

Trade valuation is completely dependent on the quality of your competition.

I think we can safely say that it's easier to overcome a miss in the early rounds if you're playing with noobs than it is if you are playing in a league of equally skilled players who can afford to spend as much time on the hobby as you do.

In this day and age, with the way information is disseminated,a person does not have spend much time finding out who the hot ww picks are. The same goes for late round steals. I mean seriously...who pegged Gronkowski or Graham to have the impact they did. Both of those shlubs were 8th to 12th round picks and barely top ten at their position. Same goes with Sprioles. Getting those guys is just as much luck as anything is.

 

[Mr.Underhill]

I drafted Andre Johnson in the first round last year. And still finished tied for the best record in my league. You can overcome a bad first round pick. It happens with quality depth and staying on top of the waiver wire.

I think those types of scenarios depend HIGHLY on your overall league makeup: your rules, the activity and "skill" of fellow owners, etc. In your case, you may have survived AJ last year. But in other elagues, there are probably a ton of guys (I know one at least) who took Jamal Charles with his first pick and never was a factor.

I know a guy who took Chris Johnson and died a slow, miserable death. It really just depends on all that other stuff.

I think, really, the answers and opinions to this question is not so much a yes or no answer, but rather, the answer is an indication to the level of your leagues' sophistication and evolution. When I played years ago in leagues with simplified scoring and very basic setup, drafting a guy like Marshall Faulk with the #1 overall was equivalent to punching your ticket for the playoffs and saying "See five of you guys in 13 weeks!" But in my leagues today, the difference between the guy who took Calvin Johnson at 8 and the guy who took DMAC, Charles, or even Foster just a pick or two one way or the other represents a chasm that could never be bridged.

Good posting.I've said it before: the more competitive your league is in terms of skill, the greater impact luck will have in the results. Bad luck can hamstring you in leagues where everyone is as smart and informed as you are.