How long before I can own a driverless car? (1 Viewer)

[cosjobs]

Home prices withing 5-7 miles of town are getting ridiculous.

How long before I can jump in an autopilot car to ride around in? The commute is the main reason I don't move out a ways, but with prices now low, I might be tempted to move sooner if driverless is on the near horizon.

 

[Ron Swanson]

Home prices withing 5-7 miles of town are getting ridiculous.

How long before I can jump in an autopilot car to ride around in? The commute is the main reason I don't move out a ways, but with prices now low, I might be tempted to move sooner if driverless is on the near horizon.

I'd bet on 3 years max.  But I bet they won't update DUI laws for 15 years.

 

[General Malaise]

I'd say 2025 is a good bet.  They're delivering food in some places already.  Tesla has features already that are pretty damn close to autopilot already.  GM (not me) has spent a LOT of R&D on this technology and is one of the key reasons they offered early retirement to so many employees.  They want to replace the workforce with younger brains that aren't conditioned to the combustible engine and driving yourself around.

I am less clear about the ability to drink wine while being chauffeured around.  I have a feeling that might be your next query.

 

[Dan Lambskin]

I just skimmed this but looks like a good summary of the different levels of autonomy and OEM predictions 

https://emerj.com/ai-adoption-timelines/self-driving-car-timeline-themselves-top-11-automakers/

 

[cosjobs]

I'd say 2025 is a good bet.  They're delivering food in some places already.  Tesla has features already that are pretty damn close to autopilot already.  GM (not me) has spent a LOT of R&D on this technology and is one of the key reasons they offered early retirement to so many employees.  They want to replace the workforce with younger brains that aren't conditioned to the combustible engine and driving yourself around.

I am less clear about the ability to drink wine while being chauffeured around.  I have a feeling that might be your next query.

Sure. If I can ride drunk, I'm interested now. 

 

[NutterButter]

I just skimmed this but looks like a good summary of the different levels of autonomy and OEM predictions 

https://emerj.com/ai-adoption-timelines/self-driving-car-timeline-themselves-top-11-automakers/

Just give me Level 4.   I'm not greedy.

 

[General Malaise]

Sure. If I can ride drunk, I'm interested now. 

Have you considered a stage coach?  Might be more affordable today.

 

[Dan Lambskin]

Have you considered a stage coach?  Might be more affordable today.

Or just Uber everywhere.  Once level 5 autonomy becomes the norm owning your own car will likely be a thing of the past 

 

[cosjobs]

Have you considered a stage coach?  Might be more affordable today.

too much poop cleanup

 

[cosjobs]

Or just Uber everywhere.  Once level 5 autonomy becomes the norm owning your own car will likely be a thing of the past 

Funny how I am fine dropping 20K on a used car, but hate the $30 Uber fare

 

[General Malaise]

too much poop cleanup

What do you care?  YOU'RE DRUNK!!!!!11

 

[Dan Lambskin]

Funny how I am fine dropping 20K on a used car, but hate the $30 Uber fare

wonder if they’ll go to some sort of subscription plan in the future

unlimited* miles for $499/month

*legaleese that means it’s not really unlimited 

 

[cosjobs]

Or just Uber everywhere.  Once level 5 autonomy becomes the norm owning your own car will likely be a thing of the past 

So let's put the pencil to it.

Please feel free to comment on numbers

Cost of car ownership 4000/yr
Insurance 1500/yr
Fuel for 8000 miles/yr 1200/yr
= 6700/yr

divided by $30 uber fares

= about 220 rides year in lieu of driving

meh. One DUI would finance three years, tho.

 

[AAABatteries]

Own or use on all roads?

Mostly joking but somewhat serious.  I think owning them and manually driving them except on certain roads will come first but I could be way off base.

 

[cosjobs]

wonder if they’ll go to some sort of subscription plan in the future

unlimited* miles for $499/month

*legaleese that means it’s not really unlimited 

That would be ideal. Say 20 rides a week for $200*

* with average ride 5 miles and 15 min. You pay for overages on time or distance

 

[bigmarc27]

I think we’re further off than people here are saying...  by a decent margin really.  My phone can’t manage more than a year or two before it needs upgrading, how often would people have to replace cars?  How do you keep them from getting hacked and killing people?  What happens the first time you need to go somewhere and are in the process of a 3 hour update?

 

[AAABatteries]

I think we’re further off than people here are saying...  by a decent margin really.  My phone can’t manage more than a year or two before it needs upgrading, how often would people have to replace cars?  How do you keep them from getting hacked and killing people?  What happens the first time you need to go somewhere and are in the process of a 3 hour update?

Isn't the assumption that it will be like a fleet of driverless Uber vehicles?

 

[bigmarc27]

Isn't the assumption that it will be like a fleet of driverless Uber vehicles?

I thought the intention was he wanted to own one. If not, what’s the difference of just taking Uber now?

 

[Brony]

I've been spending way too much time learning about these cars and deep learning.  Here's a long video done by a guy speaking at MIT who knows a lot about these things.

His prediction is 2025 to 2030 (skip to 36min 0 sec) for self-owned cars.

 

[Dedfin]

I've been spending way too much time learning about these cars and deep learning.  Here's a long video done by a guy speaking at MIT who knows a lot about these things.

His prediction is 2025 to 2030 (skip to 36min 0 sec) for self-owned cars.

Are we giving robots property rights now??

 

[Brony]

Are we giving robots property rights now??

In the future, the cars own you.

 

[IC FBGCav]

Home prices withing 5-7 miles of town are getting ridiculous.

How long before I can jump in an autopilot car to ride around in? The commute is the main reason I don't move out a ways, but with prices now low, I might be tempted to move sooner if driverless is on the near horizon.

I will be your robot driver.....stud man (all on robot voice)  Me drive you long time.

 

[cosjobs]

I will be your robot driver.....stud man (all on robot voice)  Me drive you long time.

Do you come with a Mute button?

 

[Leroy Hoard]

Have you considered a stage coach?  Might be more affordable today.

The horse usually knows the way home. And no circuits to blow out.

 

[Epic Problem]

too much poop cleanup

Rickshaw pulled by Krista, because we all know that she doesn't poop?

 

[cosjobs]

The horse usually knows the way home. And no circuits to blow out.

unless they eat them

 

[cosjobs]

Rickshaw pulled by Krista, because we all know that she doesn't poop?

Pretty sure she'd only take me downhill

 

[Leroy Hoard]

I've always slept well in cars. Fill up the tank and let it drive me around in a circuit for 8 hours.

 

[IC FBGCav]

Do you come with a Mute button?

 

[Brony]

I did find it interesting that the initial wave of cars will likely all be shared service vehicles (not privately owned).  Top reasons being that they get a lot more people experiencing driverless cars, they get more daily mileage (thus more data on roadways) and they can limit the vehicles to the places/cities where they are comfortable operating. 

 

[The General]

I’ll hold out for flying cars.

 

[bigmarc27]

I did find it interesting that the initial wave of cars will likely all be shared service vehicles (not privately owned).  Top reasons being that they get a lot more people experiencing driverless cars, they get more daily mileage (thus more data on roadways) and they can limit the vehicles to the places/cities where they are comfortable operating. 

The problem is people treat stuff like garbage if it’s not their own.  Atlanta has had a couple of scooter borrowing type things recently and they never last.  People just drop them off in the trees and leave them.  Can you imagine how many people would puke in one of those cars on a Saturday night?

 

[Binky The Doormat]

Spiccolli:  Aren't all cars "driverless cars" when someone isn't in them?  

 

[Brony]

Personally, though, I'm not optimistic it'll be soon. I mean, I get it in some cities... they'd probably be OK in most of Los Angeles most of the time. But I'm not sure if I'm trusting one in rain, snow, ice, on a twisty mountain road, etc., just yet. 

Just had that thought as I navigated my kids snowy parking lot at drop off time where there were no line markings and some cars fishtailing.  There was a lot of intuitive 'that guy's not going anywhere so I better go now' moments.  I have no doubt driverless cars are probably better than humans in pure road navigation even under the worst conditions, but when there's other humans involved, it's a slower learning curve to pick up cues that we don't even realize that we're picking up. 

Fascinating technology to see how it impacts lives, societies, cultures, etc. 

 

[bcdjr1]

There's no point in owning a car that is sitting parked 99.9% of the time. Instead, just get a subscription to a car service. Let them deal with service, maintenance, depreciation, and recouping the cost of the car by actually using it, instead of having it just clogging up a parking space half the day, and a garage space the other half of the day.

And yet, almost everyone owns a car rather than subscribing to a car service.

Cars are very personal to a lot of people. They like to take care of it and maintain it themselves. Many even bond with their cars, build part of their identity around them, and getting a new one is a major change in their lives.

In this country, cars represent freedom, especially outside major cities where public transportation is scarce (or in cities like Atlanta where public transportation sucks). Having your own car means you can go anywhere you want anytime you want.

Also self-driving vehicles will require a lot of infrastructure to operate. Clearly marked (where the markings are well maintained) and well mapped roads are a must. It will be years after being available for use in cities that self-driving cars will be usable in more rural areas.