Hoss_Cartwright
Footballguy
In light of the recent Viking issues and their bleak future, how many (if any) 1st rd picks would you give up for ADP? Would give up two top 5 picks for him?
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How many 1st rd picks is ADP worth? (1 Viewer)
- Thread starter Hoss_Cartwright
- Start date
mcintyre1
Footballguy
He's still worth at least two early round rookie picks. He's a truly elite, top notch talent. There are no guarantees that either of those picks will be worth anything close to that. If anything, he's worth 3 picks and a good player, but seeing as most leagues wouldn't allow 3 picks (unless you picked up extra), I don't think he should be dealt unless you're getting stud material in return.
Donsmith753
Footballguy
How many does your league allow you to trade? That's how many.
I would give up 2 top 5 picks to get him, and depending on the make-up of my team, I may take 2 top 5 picks to deal him, but probably not.
The Real Hipster Doofus
Footballguy
I would give up two top 5 picks, plus another two firsts from the rest of the round for him. IMO there are 5 elite talents out there (CJ, ADP, Fitz, Calvin, Andre). I would give up the same package for any of them. Lots of uncertainty when it comes to drafting rookies.
Hoss_Cartwright
Footballguy
So, you would give up 3 of the following players for ADP, because next year's draft is very good.Mark IngramAJ GreenJonathan BaldwinRyan WillaimsJulio JonesMichael FloydAndrew Luck....and I'm probably missing a couple RBs that will step up.Not sure I give up 3 of those players for what will be a 26 year old ADP next year on a declining team that other teams will put 8 in the box without Favre. Then again.....maybe I would if I thought I could win the league the next two years.
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Concept Coop
Footballguy
I would in a heartbeat. All of those names sound great, especially Ingram (top pick, not top 5). But they could very will turn into Moreno, DHB, and Spiller. And:1. 26 is not old. AP has zero health concerns and is a physical freak. At 26, I would project 4 more top 5 finishes, followed by a couple LT-like seasons. 2. AP puts up monster numbers regardless of what the other teams do, and did with Jackson at QB a couple years ago.3. The Vikings are not on the decline. They are top 5 talent wise, and very well could be right back up there next season, with an upgrade at QB, and Rice healthy. 4. You NEVER trade elite talent just for picks. You need something proven, plus the potential that draft picks offer. (i.e. Calvin + high 1st, Stewart + high 1st, Wells, Bradford, + late 1st)Edit: Another good rule of thumb to follow: Never asume how a draft class will pan out until the combine. Ingram, Williams, Green, Luck, Jones...all of them, for the most part, could go back to school, get injured, test poorly, and so on.
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Sabertooth
Footballguy
I own three first round picks in 2010. I am going to float all of them to and owner in an attempt to get ADP and Rodgers. He might just go for it. We are all kind of new to the dynasty game so values sometimes vary quite a bit by owner.
Dr. Doofenshmirtz
Footballguy
My dynasty team is awful right now. I traded AP for Ryan Mathews, Vincent Jackson and a 1st a few weeks ago.
FWIW
FWIW
mcintyre1
Footballguy
Not terrible, depending on how highly you value Jackson. If you think Jackson is a future all-pro fantasy stud, this is a good deal, if you're not that high on Jackson, not so much.I traded ADP for Austin + pieces that I liked and a future 1st. I probably sold a bit low.
Cookiemonster
Footballguy
I gave up an emerging Lee Evans (he was borderline top 10-15 dynasty WR at the time) as well as two top 5 draft picks for the #1 overall to take him over Calvin when he was an injury prone unknown himself. Now that he is a known quantity and has proven that he is not injury prone and has done it with and without support, he's worth at least that much. If we get to the combine, and all the top guys are entering the draft and all test out as we hope at the combine, I would easily give two picks for him. Right now, with so much unknown, I'd give 3 without worrying.
Concept Coop
Footballguy
Depending on the format, starting requirements, I think you could have gotten more. Unless the 1st is high, I don't think I like this deal for you.If Matthews was having a better year, I might like the deal. But as of now, he is still a question mark. Jackson in a high-end WR2, depending on where he goes. I don't like the fact that Malcolm Floyd steps in and duplicates his numbers, during his hold out. If you replaced Matthews with a guy like Charles, Stewart, or McCoy, I would feel better about it. But I think Matthews HAS to max out his potential just for you to have received equal value.
I'm not sure i would give 3 of those either, but i would definitely give up 2. The problem with that list is that you could make the same argument every year. Every year you can name 5-7 players coming out of college that look to be studs in the NFL. Unfortunately you always end up with guys who fall flat on their face. Andrew Luck may be next year's Ryan Leaf. Leaf was the 2nd overall pick. ADP is elite talent. I agree with the other poster that put Calvin, Fitz, Johnson, CJ, etc. in that list.
SWC
Bromigo
I guess it depends on your scoring system, doesn't it? PPR, I don't think I'd do it.
In a pure TD league, I don't know if I would either.
I guess it would be a tough call for to do two early picks for him. Even two pretty good players should score more than 1 super good guy, in most scoring systems and you want to keep the most points you can on the board so I don't know if the drop to the next guy you'd get to pick would make up drop from two pretty good guys to a super guy and a maybe borderline pretty good guy.
In a pure TD league, I don't know if I would either.
I guess it would be a tough call for to do two early picks for him. Even two pretty good players should score more than 1 super good guy, in most scoring systems and you want to keep the most points you can on the board so I don't know if the drop to the next guy you'd get to pick would make up drop from two pretty good guys to a super guy and a maybe borderline pretty good guy.
gotexansgo
Footballguy
AP owner in my league rejected 4 1st round picks from this past draft.
The Real Hipster Doofus
Footballguy
Well I said two top top 5 picks and two picks later in the round. So that basically means two of that list, plus two guys a little bit below the list. Yes I would make that trade, if I was anywhere reasonably close to competing. I wouldn't make that trade with my team in FLII for example. As great as those players look right now, a lot can go wrong there. You don't have to look very hard to find plenty of top 5 picks who were "locks" that ended up busting. I will take a future HOFer for that for sure.
Concept Coop
Footballguy
That is not true at all. One elite guy is worth more than two good guys in a dynasty leagues. AP = 19 Pts game
is worth more than
A = 13 pts/game + B = 13 pts/game.
(i.e. Moreno + Crabree)
Elite players win championships. You can add good players every year. Elite players don't come along every draft class, even if you have a top pick.
SWC
Bromigo
Can you please explain this to me because i am not great a math but i still think 26 is more than 19. I'm being serious -- help me out. thanks man!
Concept Coop
Footballguy
Of course.Because it is not 19 against 26. It is 19 plus whatever you plug into the second slot. Lets assume we are talking about a RB/WR combo, just to keep it simple.Can you please explain this to me because i am not great a math but i still think 26 is more than 19. I'm being serious -- help me out. thanks man!
AP = 19
Devone Bess = 8
Moreno = 13
Crabtree = 13
Using this example, Devone Bess, who I picked up off of the waiver wire in my MOX league, will provide enough points to beat a Moreno/Crabtree combo. That is using an very conservative example, because you will most likely be able to find a better WR than Bess, either through the draft or trade.
Now in a dynasty league, it is even more valuable (elite players), because owners get renewable resources (draft picks) and in some sense, are always shuffling the deck. You can shuffle the deck and get 10-13 pts/game just about every year. But it is rare that you shuffle and get 19 (elite), especially if you don't have the top pick.
In other words, it is much, much, much easier to replace good talent (13) than it is to replace or find elite talent (19).
FantasyTrader
Footballguy
In 2006 L.T. was traded in our league for three firsts and last year Roddy White switched teams for three firsts as well. When you think about the hit:bust ratio of 1st rounders I think that's about right for an in-his-prime stud.
The Real Hipster Doofus
Footballguy
This is a key point. You could send your draft picks off every year for a solid vet with a year or two left. Mason, H. Ward, OchoCinco, Tomlinson, etc are all examples of this.Concept Coop said:Of course.Because it is not 19 against 26. It is 19 plus whatever you plug into the second slot. Lets assume we are talking about a RB/WR combo, just to keep it simple.SWC said:Can you please explain this to me because i am not great a math but i still think 26 is more than 19. I'm being serious -- help me out. thanks man!Concept Coop said:
AP = 19
Devone Bess = 8
Moreno = 13
Crabtree = 13
Using this example, Devone Bess, who I picked up off of the waiver wire in my MOX league, will provide enough points to beat a Moreno/Crabtree combo. That is using an very conservative example, because you will most likely be able to find a better WR than Bess, either through the draft or trade.
Now in a dynasty league, it is even more valuable (elite players), because owners get renewable resources (draft picks) and in some sense, are always shuffling the deck. You can shuffle the deck and get 10-13 pts/game just about every year. But it is rare that you shuffle and get 19 (elite), especially if you don't have the top pick.
In other words, it is much, much, much easier to replace good talent (13) than it is to replace or find elite talent (19).
No Way Jose
Footballguy
I offered 2010 picks 1,2,and 3 for ADP last year.....the owner thought about it, but decided not to.
The Real Hipster Doofus
Footballguy
Thats looking like Ingram and Richardson, so yea that would be a steal for sure.
Going backwards, would you trade him for Crabtree and Bryant?
No. I don't know that there's any package of two players from the last two drafts that I would trade Peterson for, mostly because 2008 was such a weak draft. Dez and DeSean would tempt me, but still ultimately fall short.
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Concept Coop
Footballguy
Great point.There is a big difference between top 5 and top pick overall. Projecting that a pick is top 5 and COULD get you Mark Ingram is one thing. Having Mark Ingram, or the 1st overall, in your hand is another. I would consider trading ADP for Ingram and Richardson. I would laugh at Julio Jones and Dion Lewis. I would have considered trading him for Wells and Moreno at the time. I would have laughed at Maclin and Brown.
Topes
Footballguy
EXACTLY. Two top-5 picks for AP? In a heartbeat!Dynasty owners often overrate the value of picks. Take advantage of this. Trade away your first rounders every year. A year later, after the guys they pick underperform unrealistic expectations (and if you feel they still hold promise) trade your second rounders for them.Concept Coop said:
2005 rookie draft in a dynasty league.
Dinsy Ejotuz
Footballguy
If my team was dire I'd move him for three or more 1st rounders. Otherwise I'd just keep him.
The Real Hipster Doofus
Footballguy
Looks like East Alabama 2 Irons knows what he is doing...2.02 Brandon Jacobs
2.08 Roddy White
2.10 Vincent Jackson
I will say I agree with trading the picks, but sometime there are talents that just stand out. ADP, Calvin, Dez, Ingram, Richardson, etc.
SWC
Bromigo
Got it. Thanks.I play in one keeper league, but you can only keep a player for a max of two years before he becomes too expensive. What would your position be in that scenario?Concept Coop said:Of course.Because it is not 19 against 26. It is 19 plus whatever you plug into the second slot. Lets assume we are talking about a RB/WR combo, just to keep it simple.SWC said:Can you please explain this to me because i am not great a math but i still think 26 is more than 19. I'm being serious -- help me out. thanks man!Concept Coop said:
AP = 19
Devone Bess = 8
Moreno = 13
Crabtree = 13
Using this example, Devone Bess, who I picked up off of the waiver wire in my MOX league, will provide enough points to beat a Moreno/Crabtree combo. That is using an very conservative example, because you will most likely be able to find a better WR than Bess, either through the draft or trade.
Now in a dynasty league, it is even more valuable (elite players), because owners get renewable resources (draft picks) and in some sense, are always shuffling the deck. You can shuffle the deck and get 10-13 pts/game just about every year. But it is rare that you shuffle and get 19 (elite), especially if you don't have the top pick.
In other words, it is much, much, much easier to replace good talent (13) than it is to replace or find elite talent (19).
Say you could get AP in year 1 of his contract, or year 2.... how many picks then?
Before the draft this year, I was offered this in my keep 1 league.
I would've gave:
AP (my keeper)
The lower of Round 2
Round 4
for
Calvin Johnson (his keeper)
the Higher of Round 2
Round 3
I declined.
After the draft was complete, I was offered:
Calvin Johnson
Aaron Rodgers
Brandon Marshall
LT
for
AP
Cutler
Driver
Nanee
I also declined, but I should'e done that trade because I wasn't ready to let AP go yet.
I've made up my mind to keep Ap as long as I can.
(PS...I live in MN so this is a Vikings Homer league)
I would've gave:
AP (my keeper)
The lower of Round 2
Round 4
for
Calvin Johnson (his keeper)
the Higher of Round 2
Round 3
I declined.
After the draft was complete, I was offered:
Calvin Johnson
Aaron Rodgers
Brandon Marshall
LT
for
AP
Cutler
Driver
Nanee
I also declined, but I should'e done that trade because I wasn't ready to let AP go yet.
I've made up my mind to keep Ap as long as I can.
(PS...I live in MN so this is a Vikings Homer league)
I'm a big fan of executing early picks and trading late picks. Top 3 pick? Use it. Bottom 6 pick? Trade it. In 4 years in my main dynasty league, I've made the playoffs every year, but I've drafted 3rd, 3rd, 1st, and 8th, simply because I keep trading my late picks in packages for veteran players, and then trading veteran players in packages for other people's early picks.
dickey moe
Fingerpicker
I'm thinking of offering the ADP owner in our Keep 2 league Ray Rice and Jahvid Best during the offseason and see if he bites.
flc735
Footballguy
2009 draft: rookie pick maclin costs 1.04-1.05 pick2009 season: has a very solid first season per rookie wr standards. i wouldn't say he outperformed his 1.05 rookie value, but he certainly didn't underperformed it
2010 draft: maclin has at least shown that he can be a starting wr in the nfl and there is a slightly worse 2010 draft class compared to the year before.
those two points should give maclin a 1.03-1.04 rookie pick value. we'll put him at 1.04, right behind dez, best and mathews.
logically, maclin = 1.04 2010 rookie pick
in the fantasy football world, he was valued around the 1.08 range. after mathews, dez, best, spiller, dymerious, tate, and sometimes hardesty/tate/benn
this past off season, i got maclin for a 2.02, 2.06, 2.07. all because his rookie shine disappeared
WiDDoW_MaKeR
Footballguy
I don't see why anyone would trade him for draft picks. You would only be hoping and praying that you coupld possibly land someone as good as him anyways, so why do it?
The only way that I would do it is if I got something like Frank Gore + 1st round Draft pick
The only way that I would do it is if I got something like Frank Gore + 1st round Draft pick
doubletrouble
Footballguy
I would pull a Mike Ditka and give all of my picks for him...
Biabreakable
Footballguy
While there have been some very good RB to enter the NFL recently I do not think there has been any prospect as good as AD since LT.
So unless you have the same confidence in Ingram or whoever is entering the league as you had in AD or LT I do not see how you can trade him for picks.
When I traded for the pick to draft AD I gave up Tom Brady and Reggie Wayne in his prime. This is without knowing how good AD would be.
I would think you could at least get something similar in return for him in trade if you do not have much else besides AD is the only reason I would consider trading him at all.
Now there are a few scenarios where you could have come out ahead perhaps. But not many.
So unless you have the same confidence in Ingram or whoever is entering the league as you had in AD or LT I do not see how you can trade him for picks.
When I traded for the pick to draft AD I gave up Tom Brady and Reggie Wayne in his prime. This is without knowing how good AD would be.
I would think you could at least get something similar in return for him in trade if you do not have much else besides AD is the only reason I would consider trading him at all.
Now there are a few scenarios where you could have come out ahead perhaps. But not many.
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FUBAR
Footballguy
A few years back I gave 4 1sts for Tomlinson and that draft included Steven Jackson, Fitzgerald, Roy Williams, Eli Manning, etc. If I had kept those picks and hit on each one I probably would have walked away with Fitz, SJax, Eli and Winslow but that's drafting with the benefit of hindsight. As it is I believe those picks yielded Roy Williams, Tatem Bell, Eli Manning and Chris Perry. With a 50% hit rate, which I believe is what you can reasonably expect, I'll trade 4-5 1sts for a true stud every day. That said, I also traded the pick that would be Peterson for Portis, which backfired big time.
Actually, if I traded Peterson for 3 draft picks, I'd be hoping and praying that I could possibly land THREE someones as good as him. For instance, imagine if you'd traded Adrian Peterson for three first rounders back in 2008 and walked out of that draft with Chris Johnson, Ray Rice, and Darren McFadden.
Concept Coop
Footballguy
Only one is as good, and the odds of that are slim, even in the greatest RB draft in recent memory, if not ever.I don't think there has ever been a draft with 3 RBs as good as Adrian Peterson.
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