How many carries does a RB need to have before YPC (1 Viewer)

[KCC]

Of course, 250 is better than 1, the larger the sample size, the more reliable the stat, etc., but what is the minimum number of carries needed before you put any stock in YPC? I don't want to bias any responses by saying why I'm asking - I'm just curious what the sharks here think.

 

[cstu]

At least 200 carries in a season.

 

[FUBAR]

cop-out answer: enough to see him in a decent variety of situations / against different defenses.

If the guy gets 100 carries, but they're all in mop-up duty against bad defenses, that's different than 100 split between 4 different teams of varying strength where he carried the load for the game.

I don't think there's an exact answer, but if I need to, I'd say more than 100.

 

[Jimmy James]

I think 150 is where I'd put the number. Most of your 150+ carry backs aren't just mopping up.

 

[cstu]

I think 150 is where I'd put the number. Most of your 150+ carry backs aren't just mopping up.

Here's a list of the top 100 YPC averages by 1st-3rd year RB's with between 150-200 carries in a season. Some of them may not belong because they previously had a 225+ carry seasons, like Fred Taylor. It looks like the guys who do the best in this range of the multi-purpose backs like Watters and Westbrook who catch a lot of passes. One guy who stands out on this list is Maroney who seems like he's a guy who appears to be better than he actually is.

1	Nap Kaufman	rb	1996	23	2	16	150	874	5.83	1	22	143	6.50	1	113.702	Maurice Drew	rb	2006	21	1	16	166	941	5.67	13	46	436	9.48	2	227.703	Tatum Bell	rb	2005	24	2	15	173	921	5.32	8	18	104	5.78	0	150.504	Gary Brown	rb	1993	24	3	16	195	1002	5.14	6	21	240	11.43	2	172.205	Kevan Barlow	rb	2003	24	3	16	201	1024	5.09	6	35	307	8.77	1	175.106	Ryan Grant	rb	2007	25	3	15	188	956	5.09	8	30	147	4.90	0	158.307	Brandon Jacobs	rb	2007	25	3	11	201	1011	5.03	4	23	174	7.57	2	154.508	Ricky Watters	rb	1992	23	1	14	206	1013	4.92	9	43	405	9.42	2	207.809	Chris Brown	rb	2004	23	2	11	220	1067	4.85	6	20	147	7.35	0	157.4010	Marion Barber III	rb	2007	24	3	16	204	975	4.78	10	44	282	6.41	2	197.7011	Reggie Brooks	rb	1993	22	1	16	223	1063	4.77	3	21	186	8.86	0	142.9012	Harold Green	rb	1991	23	2	14	158	731	4.63	2	16	136	8.50	0	98.7013	Charles Way	rb	1997	25	3	16	151	698	4.62	4	37	304	8.22	1	130.2014	Fred Taylor	rb	1999	23	2	10	159	732	4.60	6	10	83	8.30	0	117.5015	Maurice Jones-Drew	rb	2007	22	2	15	167	768	4.60	9	40	407	10.18	0	171.5016	Brian Westbrook	rb	2004	25	3	13	177	812	4.59	3	73	703	9.63	6	205.5017	Ricky Watters	rb	1993	24	2	13	208	950	4.57	10	31	326	10.52	1	193.6018	Chris Warren	rb	1992	24	3	16	223	1017	4.56	3	16	134	8.38	0	133.1019	Laurence Maroney	rb	2007	22	2	13	185	835	4.51	6	4	116	29.00	0	131.1020	Chester Taylor	rb	2004	25	3	16	160	714	4.46	2	30	184	6.13	0	101.8021	Rudi Johnson	rb	2003	24	2	13	215	957	4.45	9	21	146	6.95	0	164.3022	Fred Lane	rb	1997	22	1	13	182	809	4.45	7	8	27	3.38	0	125.6023	Lamar Smith	rb	1996	26	3	16	153	680	4.44	8	9	58	6.44	0	121.8024	Marcel Shipp	rb	2002	24	1	15	188	834	4.44	6	38	413	10.87	3	178.7025	Edgerrin James	rb	2001	23	3	6	151	662	4.38	3	24	193	8.04	0	103.5026	Ronnie Brown	rb	2005	24	1	15	207	907	4.38	4	32	232	7.25	1	143.9027	Warrick Dunn	rb	1997	22	1	16	224	978	4.37	4	39	462	11.85	3	186.0028	Antowain Smith	rb	1997	25	1	16	194	840	4.33	8	28	177	6.32	0	149.7029	Marion Butts	rb	1991	25	3	16	193	834	4.32	6	10	91	9.10	1	134.5030	Mike Bell	rb	2006	23	1	15	157	677	4.31	8	20	158	7.90	0	131.5031	Leon Washington	rb	2006	24	1	16	151	650	4.30	4	25	270	10.80	0	116.0032	Greg Hill	rb	1995	23	2	16	155	667	4.30	1	7	45	6.43	0	77.2033	Bam Morris	rb	1996	24	3	11	172	737	4.28	4	25	242	9.68	1	127.9034	Mewelde Moore	rb	2005	23	2	16	155	662	4.27	1	37	339	9.16	2	118.1035	Laurence Maroney	rb	2006	21	1	14	175	745	4.26	6	22	194	8.82	1	135.9036	Bam Morris	rb	1994	22	1	15	198	836	4.22	7	22	204	9.27	0	146.0037	Lorenzo White	rb	1990	24	3	16	168	702	4.18	8	39	368	9.44	4	179.0038	Heath Sherman	rb	1990	23	2	14	164	685	4.18	1	23	167	7.26	3	109.2039	Julius Jones	rb	2004	23	1	8	197	819	4.16	7	17	109	6.41	0	134.8040	Adrian Murrell	rb	1995	25	3	15	192	795	4.14	1	71	465	6.55	2	144.0041	Johnny Johnson	rb	1992	24	3	12	178	734	4.12	6	14	103	7.36	0	119.7042	Cedric Benson	rb	2006	24	2	15	157	647	4.12	6	8	54	6.75	0	106.1043	Stacey Mack	rb	2001	26	3	16	213	877	4.12	9	23	165	7.17	1	164.2044	Darick Holmes	rb	1995	24	1	16	172	698	4.06	4	24	214	8.92	0	115.2045	Natrone Means	rb	1993	21	1	16	160	645	4.03	8	10	59	5.90	0	118.4046	Bernie Parmalee	rb	1994	27	3	15	216	868	4.02	6	34	249	7.32	1	153.7047	Derrick Fenner	rb	1990	23	2	16	215	859	4.00	14	17	143	8.41	1	190.2048	Roosevelt Potts	rb	1993	22	1	16	179	711	3.97	0	26	189	7.27	0	90.0049	Michael Bennett	rb	2001	23	1	13	172	682	3.97	2	29	226	7.79	1	108.8050	Cleveland Gary	rb	1990	24	2	15	204	808	3.96	14	30	150	5.00	1	185.8051	T.J. Duckett	rb	2003	22	2	16	197	779	3.95	11	11	94	8.55	0	153.3052	Mike Alstott	rb	1998	25	3	16	215	846	3.93	8	22	152	6.91	1	153.8053	Natrone Means	rb	1995	23	3	10	186	730	3.92	5	7	46	6.57	0	107.6054	Derek Brown	rb	1993	22	1	13	180	705	3.92	2	21	170	8.10	1	105.5055	Michael Pittman	rb	2000	25	3	16	184	719	3.91	4	73	579	7.93	2	165.8056	Mike Anderson	rb	2001	28	2	16	175	678	3.87	4	8	46	5.75	0	96.4057	Raymont Harris	rb	1996	26	3	12	194	748	3.86	4	32	296	9.25	1	134.4058	Blair Thomas	rb	1991	24	2	16	189	728	3.85	3	30	195	6.50	1	116.3059	Reggie Cobb	rb	1991	23	2	16	196	752	3.84	7	15	111	7.40	0	128.3060	Tyrone Wheatley	rb	1997	25	3	14	152	583	3.84	4	16	140	8.75	0	96.3061	Mario Bates	rb	1994	21	1	11	151	579	3.83	6	8	62	7.75	0	100.1062	Ron Dayne	rb	2001	23	2	16	180	690	3.83	7	8	67	8.38	0	117.7063	John Stephens	rb	1990	24	3	16	212	808	3.81	2	28	196	7.00	1	117.4064	Greg Jones	rb	2005	24	2	14	151	575	3.81	4	10	65	6.50	0	88.0065	Kevin Jones	rb	2006	24	3	12	181	689	3.81	6	61	520	8.52	2	168.9066	James Stewart	rb	1996	25	2	13	190	723	3.81	8	30	177	5.90	2	150.0067	Chris Brown	rb	2005	24	3	15	224	851	3.80	5	25	327	13.08	2	159.8068	Derrick Moore	rb	1995	28	3	13	195	740	3.79	4	4	12	3.00	0	99.2069	Greg Robinson	rb	1993	24	1	12	156	591	3.79	1	15	142	9.47	0	79.3070	Mike Alstott	rb	1997	24	2	15	176	665	3.78	7	23	178	7.74	3	144.3071	Tommy Vardell	rb	1993	24	2	16	171	644	3.77	3	19	151	7.95	1	103.5072	Garrison Hearst	rb	1996	25	3	16	225	847	3.76	0	12	131	10.92	1	103.8073	Lee Suggs	rb	2004	24	2	10	199	744	3.74	2	20	178	8.90	1	110.2074	Leroy Thompson	rb	1993	24	3	15	205	763	3.72	3	38	259	6.82	0	120.2075	Antowain Smith	rb	1999	27	3	14	165	614	3.72	6	2	32	16.00	0	100.6076	Reggie Bush	rb	2007	22	2	12	157	581	3.70	4	73	417	5.71	2	135.8077	Shawn Bryson	rb	2000	24	1	16	161	591	3.67	0	32	271	8.47	2	98.2078	Vaughn Dunbar	rb	1992	24	1	16	154	565	3.67	3	9	62	6.89	0	80.7079	Jason Brookins	rb	2001	25	1	12	151	551	3.65	5	6	45	7.50	0	89.6080	Reggie Bush	rb	2006	21	1	16	155	565	3.65	6	88	742	8.43	2	177.7081	Brad Baxter	rb	1991	24	3	16	184	666	3.62	11	12	124	10.33	0	145.0082	William Green	rb	2004	25	3	15	163	585	3.59	2	14	84	6.00	0	78.9083	Kevin Jones	rb	2005	23	2	13	186	664	3.57	5	20	109	5.45	0	107.3084	Mario Bates	rb	1996	23	3	14	164	584	3.56	4	13	44	3.38	0	86.8085	Cadillac Williams	rb	2006	24	2	14	225	798	3.55	1	30	196	6.53	0	105.4086	Ray Zellars	rb	1997	24	3	16	156	552	3.54	4	31	263	8.48	0	105.5087	Edgar Bennett	rb	1994	25	3	16	178	623	3.50	5	78	546	7.00	4	170.9088	Fred Lane	rb	1998	23	2	14	205	717	3.50	5	12	85	7.08	0	110.2089	Jerome Bettis	rb	1995	23	3	15	183	637	3.48	3	18	106	5.89	0	92.3090	Kevin Faulk	rb	2000	24	2	16	164	570	3.48	4	51	465	9.12	1	133.5091	Edgar Bennett	rb	1993	24	2	16	159	550	3.46	9	59	457	7.75	1	160.7092	Cedric Benson	rb	2007	25	3	11	197	678	3.44	4	17	123	7.24	0	104.1093	Travis Henry	rb	2001	23	1	13	213	729	3.42	4	22	179	8.14	0	114.8094	J.J. Johnson	rb	1999	25	1	13	164	558	3.40	4	15	100	6.67	0	89.8095	Johnny Johnson	rb	1991	23	2	15	196	666	3.40	4	29	225	7.76	2	125.1096	Jonathan Linton	rb	1999	25	2	16	205	695	3.39	5	29	228	7.86	1	128.3097	Anthony Thomas	rb	2002	25	2	12	214	721	3.37	6	24	163	6.79	0	124.4098	Lawrence Phillips	rb	1997	22	2	12	201	677	3.37	8	11	39	3.55	0	119.6099	Anthony Johnson	rb	1992	25	3	15	178	592	3.33	0	49	517	10.55	3	128.90100	Ricky Ervins	rb	1992	24	2	16	151	495	3.28	2	32	252	7.88	0	86.70

 

[Chase Stuart]

I like Maurile's approach to this question. He uses some Bayes' theorem to help compare RBs with different carry numbers.

 

[Joe Bryant]

Of course, 250 is better than 1, the larger the sample size, the more reliable the stat, etc., but what is the minimum number of carries needed before you put any stock in YPC? I don't want to bias any responses by saying why I'm asking - I'm just curious what the sharks here think.

That's an excellent question, KCC. Most all stats like this need "more" and have to be looked at more deeply. YPC is one of those. For my gut feel, the number seems like about 100-150 before I start putting a lot of stock in YPC numbers.J

 

[FUBAR]

I like Maurile's approach to this question. He uses some Bayes' theorem to help compare RBs with different carry numbers.

 

[jerseydevil20]

It's important to consider the "type" of carries, especially when the number is low. If a guy gets most of his carries on 3rd and long, and in garbage time his average will be higher (usually). That same RB will likely also have a lower number of carries. If a guy has a low number of carries, but got them replacing an injured starter that's a completely different thing.

Answer - it depends.

 

[Chase Stuart]

Once again, it depends exactly what you're trying to determine. If you're trying to figure out talent, then maybe Maurile's Bayes' theory is best. If you're trying to figure out value, I like to use a stat I call "rushing yards over 3.0". It's simply rushing yards <minus> (rushes X 3.0). The nice thing about this list is it will give you a good mix of high carry and low carry guys.

RY3.0 Car Ryd YPC626 238 1340 5.63 Adrian Peterson533 223 1202 5.39 Fred Taylor529 315 1474 4.68 LaDainian Tomlinson499 278 1333 4.79 Brian Westbrook412 200 1012 5.06 Brandon Jacobs404 298 1298 4.36 Jamal Lewis392 188 956 5.09 Ryan Grant373 157 844 5.38 Chester Taylor370 201 973 4.84 Marion Barber III355 320 1315 4.11 Willie Parker343 222 1009 4.55 Justin Fargas325 294 1207 4.11 Willis McGahee322 260 1102 4.24 Frank Gore309 102 615 6.03 Jerious Norwood307 140 727 5.19 Selvin Young292 237 1003 4.23 Steven Jackson291 324 1263 3.90 Clinton Portis289 261 1072 4.11 Joseph Addai285 144 717 4.98 DeAngelo Williams280 185 835 4.51 Laurence Maroney278 279 1115 4.00 Marshawn Lynch269 167 770 4.61 Maurice Jones-Drew262 323 1231 3.81 Edgerrin James245 119 602 5.06 Ronnie Brown232 222 898 4.05 Earnest Graham232 177 763 4.31 Kenny Watson227 125 602 4.82 Derrick Ward213 139 630 4.53 Maurice Morris198 304 1110 3.65 LenDale White191 194 773 3.98 Ron Dayne190 167 691 4.14 Travis Henry189 310 1119 3.61 Thomas Jones179 107 500 4.67 Najeh Davenport173 121 536 4.43 Kenton Keith162 101 465 4.60 Chris Brown144 64 336 5.25 T.J. Duckett140 71 353 4.97 Leon Washington136 246 874 3.55 DeShaun Foster131 128 515 4.02 Jesse Chatman129 85 384 4.52 Sammy Morris128 57 299 5.25 Fred Jackson127 62 313 5.05 Correll Buckhalter125 152 581 3.82 Kevin Jones121 23 190 8.26 Ahmad Bradshaw120 21 183 8.71 DeDe Dorsey117 144 549 3.81 LaMont Jordan113 156 581 3.72 Reggie Bush103 114 445 3.90 Aaron Stecker103 71 316 4.45 Michael Turner101 50 251 5.02 Pierre ThomasJerrious Norwood ranks ahead of Clinton Portis. That doesn't mean that Norwood is better than Portis (although that might be true), or even that Norwood was better than Portis last year (although that might be true, too). What it means is that Norwood's statistics were more impressive than Portis' statistics. For the most part, the list is dominated by high carry guys. But someone with a huge YPC on a low number of carries can rank high here, and they should, since those guys are valuable. The difference between Norwood and Portis last year was 222 carries and 648 yards. 222 carries is a whole lot, but 648 yards really isn't. It won't be difficult to find some other RBs to average 2.92 YPC. Thus, Norwood's stats look more impressive than Portis' stats. But Norwood's stats (6.0 YPC) aren't more impressive than Willie Parker's (4.11 YPC), because of the huge 200+ carry difference.Once again, not the most sophisticated stat in the world, but I like it. I also use "adjusted rushing yards over 3.0" where I give a 10 point bonus for rushing TDs. That rarely makes a big difference, but it's a bit more accurate so I like to use that one, too.

 

[Doug Drinen]

If you asked this question to a mathematician who knew nothing about football (but had access to data), this is what he might tell you:

Over the last six years in the NFL, running back rush attempts have a mean of 4.16 and a standard deviation of 6.11. While the distribution of outcomes on a single carry is nowhere near a normal (bell-shaped) distribution, the central limit theorem guarantees that if you have a large number of carries (I'm sure 100 is more than enough), the average will very closely approximate a normal distribution with standard deviation 6.11/sqrt(number_of_carries).

So, if you take a totally average back and give him 100 carries in randomly-selected situations, his YPC average will be normally distributed with mean 4.16 and standard deviation 6.11/sqrt(100)=.61. I.e. if you perform this give-an-average-back-100-carries experiment a whole bunch of times, he will have a YPC between 3.55 and 4.77 about two-thirds of the time. He will have a YPC between 2.94 and 5.38 about 95% of the time. This means, of course, that an average back with 100 random carries will, about 5% of the time, have a YPC lower than 2.94 or higher than 5.38 by sheer dumb luck.

Here's a chart that shows the percentage of the time a totally average back would be outside a given YPC range on a given number of carries:

outside this range	  outside this rangeCarries	   1/3 of the time		 5% of the time----------------------------------------------------- 100		   3.55 -- 4.77			2.94 -- 5.38 150		   3.66 -- 4.66			3.16 -- 5.16 200		   3.73 -- 4.59			3.30 -- 5.02 250		   3.77 -- 4.55			3.39 -- 4.93 300		   3.81 -- 4.51			3.45 -- 4.87 350		   3.83 -- 4.49			3.51 -- 4.81 400		   3.85 -- 4.47			3.55 -- 4.77 450		   3.87 -- 4.45			3.58 -- 4.74 500		   3.89 -- 4.43			3.61 -- 4.71 550		   3.90 -- 4.42			3.64 -- 4.68 600		   3.91 -- 4.41			3.66 -- 4.66 650		   3.92 -- 4.40			3.68 -- 4.64 700		   3.93 -- 4.39			3.70 -- 4.62 750		   3.94 -- 4.38			3.71 -- 4.61 800		   3.94 -- 4.38			3.73 -- 4.59 850		   3.95 -- 4.37			3.74 -- 4.58 900		   3.96 -- 4.36			3.75 -- 4.57 950		   3.96 -- 4.36			3.76 -- 4.561000		   3.97 -- 4.35			3.77 -- 4.551050		   3.97 -- 4.35			3.78 -- 4.541100		   3.98 -- 4.34			3.79 -- 4.531150		   3.98 -- 4.34			3.80 -- 4.521200		   3.98 -- 4.34			3.81 -- 4.511250		   3.99 -- 4.33			3.81 -- 4.511300		   3.99 -- 4.33			3.82 -- 4.501350		   3.99 -- 4.33			3.83 -- 4.491400		   4.00 -- 4.32			3.83 -- 4.491450		   4.00 -- 4.32			3.84 -- 4.481500		   4.00 -- 4.32			3.84 -- 4.481550		   4.00 -- 4.32			3.85 -- 4.471600		   4.01 -- 4.31			3.85 -- 4.471650		   4.01 -- 4.31			3.86 -- 4.461700		   4.01 -- 4.31			3.86 -- 4.461750		   4.01 -- 4.31			3.87 -- 4.451800		   4.02 -- 4.30			3.87 -- 4.451850		   4.02 -- 4.30			3.88 -- 4.441900		   4.02 -- 4.30			3.88 -- 4.441950		   4.02 -- 4.30			3.88 -- 4.442000		   4.02 -- 4.30			3.89 -- 4.43

And this is if your average RB is getting the ball in a random array of situations. If you bias the situations toward short-yardage, or toward garbage time, or whatever, that's going to make the problem worse, not better.

 

[Chase Stuart]

I like Maurile's approach to this question. He uses some Bayes' theorem to help compare RBs with different carry numbers.

http://forums.footballguys.com/forum/index...t&p=7252368

 

[Jason Wood]

This conversation gets even more interesting when we talk situational stats. How many times do you read or hear people say a back is a "proven goal line runner" or "great in short yardage." Well, how many carries is ENOUGH?

Only 35 RBs in the league have had 30 or more goal-line carries over the last FIVE YEARS.

There have only been 21 individual seasons over that span of 20 or more goal line carries.

Yet we never seem to have an issue declaring someone as effective or ineffective in that regard.

The same can be said for "3rd and long" receiving situations, for example...

Care to take a guess which RB has the most targets on 3rd and long (10+ yards) over the last five seasons?

*** 50 points if you guessed SHAWN BRYSON (a whopping 17 3rd and long targets in 2003)

http://subscribers.footballguys.com/apps/d...att%2Brsh%2Brec

 

[Iwannabeacowboybaby!]

I think it's more than 100, I think it's 200 before I think YPC really starts to mean something. I'm not saying I'm not impressed with a back who rushes for 150 yards and puts up 5.4 yards per carry but you need a lot of carries before YPC really has a significant meaning. 200 to me is finally enough to me, if the guy is rushing for 4.0 yards per carry, he's probably going to be doing it at around 300 yards. I don't get that same feeling with a guy who only rushes for 100 times.

I know Norwood who's got over 100 rushes last year and Chester Taylor over 150, the first guy was over 6.0 yards per carry and the 2nd close to 5 and a 1/2. Guess what, if they could run for 5 and 6 yards per carry every carry, they wouldn't be backups in a league where future Pro Bowlers are trying to rush for 4 yards.

 

[Jimmy James]

I don't doubt that Taylor could have done a similar YPC at 200 or more carries if not for ADP.

 

[Iwannabeacowboybaby!]

I don't doubt that Taylor could have done a similar YPC at 200 or more carries if not for ADP.

He did rush for 4.0 yards per carry for more than 300 with Minnesota the year before ADP and finished with over 1200 yards. The guy is a player, he just has the hottest RB in the league on his same team.

 

[Colin Dowling]

I prefer to see them do it over two seasons, regardless of carry totals. But to the question at hand, I'd say once a guy breaks 600 yards in a season, he's clearly getting opportunity and has some talent. So, with that in mind, 120-ish carries is when it starts carrying some weight for me.

 

[switz]

Of course, 250 is better than 1, the larger the sample size, the more reliable the stat, etc., but what is the minimum number of carries needed before you put any stock in YPC? I don't want to bias any responses by saying why I'm asking - I'm just curious what the sharks here think.

I don't think it's as easy as number of carries. Situation plays a huge role in YPC. And if a guy has say 200 carries, but 150 of them are in the second half of games, or in obvious passing situations, that YPC is very inflated.It's pretty much unique to each player.

 

[switz]

I know Norwood who's got over 100 rushes last year and Chester Taylor over 150, the first guy was over 6.0 yards per carry and the 2nd close to 5 and a 1/2. Guess what, if they could run for 5 and 6 yards per carry every carry, they wouldn't be backups in a league where future Pro Bowlers are trying to rush for 4 yards.

There's more to playing RB than YPC. Norwood's running ability has nothing to do with why they favored Dunn over him, and traded for Turner over him.Taylor would still be the starter in MIN, if a once in a decade talent hadn't been available at the Vikings pick. Their taking ADP had nothing to do with Taylor's talent, as he already had proven himself a good starting RB.Also, I can't think of a healthy "future Pro Bowler" who is "trying to rush for 4 yards."

 

[UnknownCoach]

Some things to consider when evaluating YPC

Situational backs arent playing under the same circumstances. A short yardage specialist and a third down specialist arent playing on an even field. Inside the red zone, yards are harder to get than between the 20s. 8 man fronts are harder to run against than a prevent defense. Likewise, a starting tailback who sits on certain situations isnt playing under the same circumstances as one who plays in all situations.

A high YPC usually comes from long runs. A speed back will generally have a higher YPC than a power back due to more and longer breakaways. NFL coaches though want to move the chains (get first downs) as well as getting big plays. Just because a back gets more big plays doesnt make him the best RB in the coach's eye.

Obviously, the team's blocking, play calling, and system all factor in. Some teams play in a more pass happy offense relying more on big plays and others try to establish a ball control game relying on makeing those first downs. Defenses adjust. Certain backs might play better in one system or the other. So its not only about how good the offensive line is. Even offensive lineman themselves are often better built for one type of system or another.

 

[Holy Schneikes]

This depends most heavily on his roster status with respect to my teams.

If the player in question is on one of my teams, and his YPC is high, the answer is four. He needs at least four runs to make me a believer. Sometimes three, if one of those first three rushes was for over 10 yards (gotta be flexible).

If he's NOT on any of my teams, and his YPC is high, that high YPC is completely irrelevant until he has at least 1500 carries (and approaching future HOF status). Until then, it is a fluke.

On the other hand, if he is on one of my teams and the YPC is low, he must log at least that same 1500 carries (over multiple teams preferably) for that to be considered a meaningful result of something other than his situation. There are a multitude of team-mates, situations, injuries, etc we can use to invalidate this number. It's just a number after all.

Finally, if the YPC is low, and he is not on any of teams, I will launch one of my patented slanderous campaigns disparaging the guy's talent level after just a handful of carries. Sometimes, it is very obvious that a guy just plain sucks.