How many weeks are relevant for a player's Avg? (1 Viewer)

[ConstruxBoy]

When you are evaluating players for fantasy, especially when considering Start/Sit decisions, how many weeks of past data are relevant? Are you looking at their fantasy point average for the whole season? The last 3 weeks? Last 6 weeks?

 

[Kool-Aid Larry]

When you are evaluating players for fantasy, especially when considering Start/Sit decisions, how many weeks of past data are relevant? Are you looking at their fantasy point average for the whole season? The last 3 weeks? Last 6 weeks?

small sample size handicapping i smore art than science --- I think it varies by case.

 

[thehornet]

too hard too answer. it really depends on the player.

 

[gethugefast1]

Voted Three (3).

One's (1) a Fact.

Two's (2) a Coincidence.

Three's (3) a Trend.

My Philosophy (LOL) is at the end of Week 3 start hitting the waivers hard.

 

[ConstruxBoy]

Yeah. just looking for a general rule. I've been going back and forth between a couple of values and I can't decide if one is better than the other. Just wondering if anyone else does this to see who's "hot" or do they always use the whole season.

 

[Khy]

As others have said it really depends on the situation... my opinion has always been.

1 Week - A fluke.

2 Weeks - Something to watch, definitely pick him up if roster space is open.

3 Weeks - Some serious potential, worth a bye week filler or match up play.

4 Weeks - A starter who has shown more than enough consistency to be trusted until proven otherwise.

Sometimes this adjusts though, for example this season I've had a few points where this changed. The first one was Tim Tebow, I picked him up going into the Broncos bye and started him vs Miami that following week vs Miami. Since then I've been playing matchups with him and Ryan. Kevin Smith, I picked him up and started him in his big 30 point week with Foster and Sproles on a bye. I started him the past two weeks as well and if not for his injury he'd probably have been a Top 10 RB each week.

Other situations where I did the above was with Sproles... I picked him up half way through the first game of the season cause I had a feeling. Sat him in week 2 and he had another good game. Tossed him in Week 3 with Foster out again and he had another good game and he has been a starter ever since on my team.

The final thing to me is the match ups... if it's a RB who had 2-3 great weeks but played Carolina, Indy and St Louis well... maybe you need to temper your expectations when they play Atlanta the following week.

So again it's tough, however usually I'd say 4 weeks.

 

[solorca]

It depends on a player and situation. Injuries that they are overcoming, matchups they have faced, etc. all factor in. In a vacuum, I would probably say four games to set a solid trend.

 

[Kool-Aid Larry]

Yeah. just looking for a general rule. I've been going back and forth between a couple of values and I can't decide if one is better than the other. Just wondering if anyone else does this to see who's "hot" or do they always use the whole season.

give us your hypothetical illustration --- it'll be hypothetical so not a wdis.

 

[ConstruxBoy]

Yeah. just looking for a general rule. I've been going back and forth between a couple of values and I can't decide if one is better than the other. Just wondering if anyone else does this to see who's "hot" or do they always use the whole season.

give us your hypothetical illustration --- it'll be hypothetical so not a wdis.

No particular players involved. I just like to use a fantasy point average as one of my criteria when making start/sit decisions. For a long time I pretty much used just the player's whole season average. But I realized that was dumb, as lots of players either heat up or cool off as the season goes on to to playing time, injuries, offense changes, etc. So I've been trying to consider a "momentum" component to basically measure how a player has been playing lately. And yes, the sample sizes are small. But I've been going back and forth between 4 weeks and 5 weeks as the measurement and I wasn't sure if anyone out there had done any research on it or had a strong opinion. And I do understand it's not a huge difference. Just looking for any edge possible.

 

[Donsmith753]

I'll look at a recent three week period, as others have said this is a trend.

I also like to look over the whole season (eliminating the top and bottom score) to try and see things from a different angle.

 

[Addai's Adidas]

Going in to the playoffs I am looking at the last 6 weeks.

 

[killrobotkill]

I usually look at the last six weeks, but as others have said, it all depends on the player and situation. Three games is a trend, but I like to understand why a particular player has blown up just now and not before. If I'm looking to put someone in my starting lineup via trade, I'll look at a longer history than for players who I'm picking up as lottery tickets off the waiver wire to put on my bench.

 

[BroadwayG]

First, I take out all of their big plays. Then I realize all the players are the same.

 

[There it is]

Generally 3 weeks. BTW that's how long it takes the Def to adjust to a new/hot player, I believe.

 

[Jerry Lawler]

If I want to get a general reference point for the player's performance, I'll use the whole season for WDIS. It's good to have as much data as possible for averages. However, I find that I rarely put much weight on the average because I'm thinking more about the ways that specific players' roles in their situations are developing. To identify waiver wire players who are emerging, I like to take a look at the last 3 weeks' performance to see if there's someone I haven't noticed.

 

[AB in DC]

Six weeks at an absolute minimum, preferably eight to ten weeks.

Of course, you're going to be making lots of lineup decisions without knowing this.