How Much better is AD than Chester? (1 Viewer)

[Team Legacy]

Where do I get 3.5% ?

AD

238 carries

1341 yards

5.63 per carry

13 TDs

19 recepts

268 receiving yards

257 touches - 1609 yards

6.26 yards per touch

Chester

157 carries

844 yards

5.38 per carry

7 TDs

29 recepts

281 receiving yards

186 touches - 1125 yards

6.04 yards per touch

3.5% better ....

A couple things to remember:

Now many will say "move over Chester", but not so fast...

Chester had a whopping 11 carries the first 4 games due to injury and still finished as RB20 last year.

Pretty good case that Chester is darn productive in that offense. If that's the case, and I'm the coaching staff, I don't lean TOO heavily on AD. Chester is STILL value.

 

[AnonymousBob]

Which is why I believe ADP, while an elite talent, is actually overrated.

 

[Banger]

Which is why I believe ADP, while an elite talent, is actually overrated.

It's kind of akin to the LJ/Priest days a few years back....

 

[The Man with the Plan]

Prior to last season (or more like a couple of games) Chester Taylor was just another running back. Now all of a sudden he's some stud along the lines of MJD or LJ? This is madness.

AD is at least twice as good as Chester Taylor.

 

[LawFitz]

Gimme these same splits before AD's knee injury. Watching him play he was not the same guy for the rest of the season following his return. I don't think he fully recovered until the offseason.

 

[Raider Nation]

Where do I get 3.5% ?

AD

257 touches - 1609 yards

6.26 yards per touch

Chester

186 touches - 1125 yards

6.04 yards per touch

3.5% better ....

Who wants to point out the flaw in this logic?

 

[Phurfur]

Where do I get 3.5% ?

AD

238 carries

1341 yards

5.63 per carry

13 TDs

19 recepts

268 receiving yards

257 touches - 1609 yards

6.26 yards per touch

Chester

157 carries

844 yards

5.38 per carry

7 TDs

29 recepts

281 receiving yards

186 touches - 1125 yards

6.04 yards per touch

3.5% better ....

A couple things to remember:

Now many will say "move over Chester", but not so fast...

Chester had a whopping 11 carries the first 4 games due to injury and still finished as RB20 last year.

Pretty good case that Chester is darn productive in that offense. If that's the case, and I'm the coaching staff, I don't lean TOO heavily on AD. Chester is STILL value.

I know there were a couple of games last year where Chester out performed AD. I agree and I think Chester may have more value when you look at ADP for both players.

 

[AnonymousBob]

Where do I get 3.5% ?

AD

257 touches - 1609 yards

6.26 yards per touch

Chester

186 touches - 1125 yards

6.04 yards per touch

3.5% better ....

Who wants to point out the flaw in this logic?

Adrian Peterson had 238 carries for a 5.6 ypcChester Taylor had 157 carries for a 5.4

 

[Raider Nation]

Where do I get 3.5% ?

AD

257 touches - 1609 yards

6.26 yards per touch

Chester

186 touches - 1125 yards

6.04 yards per touch

3.5% better ....

Who wants to point out the flaw in this logic?

Adrian Peterson had 238 carries for a 5.6 ypcChester Taylor had 157 carries for a 5.4

Pretty much.You can't guarantee Chester's production wouldn't have declined if he had the additional 71 touches AD received.

 

[Team Legacy]

Where do I get 3.5% ?

AD

257 touches - 1609 yards

6.26 yards per touch

Chester

186 touches - 1125 yards

6.04 yards per touch

3.5% better ....

Who wants to point out the flaw in this logic?

Adrian Peterson had 238 carries for a 5.6 ypcChester Taylor had 157 carries for a 5.4

Pretty much.You can't guarantee Chester's production wouldn't have declined if he had the additional 71 touches AD received.

Oh gimme a break, that's as big a reach as the one you're suggesting that I'm making. Although what I'm doing is stating facts. The Minny O-Line has much to do with AD's success. He's a super talent, but let's look at Chester for comparison sake, and he stacks up as a capable starter and a MUST cuff for AD owners spending NO LATER than a 7th round pick.

 

[Raider Nation]

Where do I get 3.5% ?

AD

257 touches - 1609 yards

6.26 yards per touch

Chester

186 touches - 1125 yards

6.04 yards per touch

3.5% better ....

Who wants to point out the flaw in this logic?

Adrian Peterson had 238 carries for a 5.6 ypcChester Taylor had 157 carries for a 5.4

Pretty much.You can't guarantee Chester's production wouldn't have declined if he had the additional 71 touches AD received.

Oh gimme a break, that's as big a reach as the one you're suggesting that I'm making.

Okay.

 

[OddibeMcD]

I think the bigger flaw here is using 0 yards a touch/carry as a baseline. No one averages 0 yards. Use the league average or 4 yards as a baseline here.

 

[Moe Green]

This is why CT is gonna represent a hell of a lot more value than ADP this year in most drafts.

 

[AnonymousBob]

Where do I get 3.5% ?

AD

257 touches - 1609 yards

6.26 yards per touch

Chester

186 touches - 1125 yards

6.04 yards per touch

3.5% better ....

Who wants to point out the flaw in this logic?

Adrian Peterson had 238 carries for a 5.6 ypcChester Taylor had 157 carries for a 5.4

Pretty much.You can't guarantee Chester's production wouldn't have declined if he had the additional 71 touches AD received.

You took the point I was trying to make in a different manner than I intended it to go. As I've said numerous times, I believe ADP is the better of the two. However, I do believe the offensive line had more to do with the production than most people realize. When Chester Taylor is averaging a 5.4 ypc that to me screams anomoly.And if CT looked better because of it then ADP looked better because of it as well.

 

[Raider Nation]

his is why CT is gonna represent a hell of a lot more value than ADP this year in most drafts.

How could he not? When ADP's ADP is 1.02, he'd practically have to break Dickerson's record to exceed his value.

 

[Raider Nation]

Where do I get 3.5% ?

AD

257 touches - 1609 yards

6.26 yards per touch

Chester

186 touches - 1125 yards

6.04 yards per touch

3.5% better ....

Who wants to point out the flaw in this logic?

Adrian Peterson had 238 carries for a 5.6 ypcChester Taylor had 157 carries for a 5.4

Pretty much.You can't guarantee Chester's production wouldn't have declined if he had the additional 71 touches AD received.

You took the point I was trying to make in a different manner than I intended it to go. As I've said numerous times, I believe ADP is the better of the two. However, I do believe the offensive line had more to do with the production than most people realize. When Chester Taylor is averaging a 5.4 ypc that to me screams anomoly.And if CT looked better because of it then ADP looked better because of it as well.

That's fair. I'm simply not as high on CT as everyone else because I believe AD will cut into Chester's 3rd-down role.

 

[dapunisher]

What about the TD disparity? Is that part of the 3.5% result?

 

[ZWK]

Yes, but how much better is AD than Mewelde Moore?

Mewelde

20 carries

113 yards

6 recepts

48 receiving yards

26 touches - 161 yards

6.19 yards per touch

AD is only 1.1% better...

But wait - only 26 touches? Can he keep it up? Let's look at Mewelde's career stats (4 seasons in MIN) to see how good he really is:

264 carries

1285 yards

116 recepts

1093 yards

380 touches - 2378 yards

6.26 yards per touch

AD was

257 touches - 1609 yards

6.26 yards per touch

So is Mewelde Moore really as good as AD? Nope. If you look at the next couple decimal places, you'll see that AD is actually 0.04% better than Mewelde (6.2607 ypt vs. 6.2579 ypt).

 

[Manster]

Where do I get 3.5% ?

AD

257 touches - 1609 yards

6.26 yards per touch

Chester

186 touches - 1125 yards

6.04 yards per touch

3.5% better ....

Who wants to point out the flaw in this logic?

Adrian Peterson had 238 carries for a 5.6 ypcChester Taylor had 157 carries for a 5.4

Pretty much.You can't guarantee Chester's production wouldn't have declined if he had the additional 71 touches AD received.

Oh gimme a break, that's as big a reach as the one you're suggesting that I'm making. Although what I'm doing is stating facts. The Minny O-Line has much to do with AD's success. He's a super talent, but let's look at Chester for comparison sake, and he stacks up as a capable starter and a MUST cuff for AD owners spending NO LATER than a 7th round pick.

i agree that if you pick AP you should be looking to land chester, and it'll cost you a 6th or 7th round pick. but it's worth it, cause we know chester behind that line can be a #1 RB. in fact i'm targeting chester this yr, for depth at RB, whether i draft AP or not. AP is a stud, no doubt, but he had some inconsistent games last yr, and he's injury prone. and we only have one yr of stats to go on. he's definately overrated, imo. will he live up to the av. draft pos. of #2?, i dont think so.

is AP WAY more talented than chester? i dont know yet. lets see what he does this yr.

 

[Chunky Soup]

Which is why I believe ADP, while an elite talent, is actually overrated.

I thought FBG were better than that -- to go by analysis like the one in OP. Wow.

 

[Chunky Soup]

Pretty much.

You can't guarantee Chester's production wouldn't have declined if he had the additional 71 touches AD received.

Oh gimme a break, that's as big a reach as the one you're suggesting that I'm making. Although what I'm doing is stating facts. The Minny O-Line has much to do with AD's success. He's a super talent, but let's look at Chester for comparison sake, and he stacks up as a capable starter and a MUST cuff for AD owners spending NO LATER than a 7th round pick.

You're really, really, ignoring things behind those statistics. The situations when these two are on the field are much different, you can't make these types of comparisons on YPC data alone. Do some more research, a lot of it, and come back. Chances are you'll never be able to "prove" one better than the other on statistics alone.

 

[Iwannabeacowboybaby!]

Where do I get 3.5% ?

AD

238 carries

1341 yards

5.63 per carry

13 TDs

19 recepts

268 receiving yards

257 touches - 1609 yards

6.26 yards per touch

Chester

157 carries

844 yards

5.38 per carry

7 TDs

29 recepts

281 receiving yards

186 touches - 1125 yards

6.04 yards per touch

3.5% better ....

A couple things to remember:

Now many will say "move over Chester", but not so fast...

Chester had a whopping 11 carries the first 4 games due to injury and still finished as RB20 last year.

Pretty good case that Chester is darn productive in that offense. If that's the case, and I'm the coaching staff, I don't lean TOO heavily on AD. Chester is STILL value.

I know there were a couple of games last year where Chester out performed AD. I agree and I think Chester may have more value when you look at ADP for both players.

OMG, I agree with you again today!Anyway, I've touted Taylor since he was competing for the backup job for Jamal Lewis vs. Musa Smith. The running backs coach then compared Chester Taylor to Priest Holmes. (who also played for Baltimore just before going to KC, so that guy new him very well).

ADP is great, I am not going to say he's not. However, you can't just deny Chester's talent. Two years ago the guy carried the ball over 300 times and finished with over 1200 yards and 12th in fantasy in RB's. Last year, he finished 20th amongst RB's behind a young stud, basically making every handoff count, every reception count.

I plan on having Chester Taylor in a couple of my teams this year, you won't go wrong with him.

 

[AnonymousBob]

Which is why I believe ADP, while an elite talent, is actually overrated.

I thought FBG were better than that -- to go by analysis like the one in OP. Wow.

The analysis the OP presented us with was not that great nor was it a compelling argument one way or the other. But I believed and still believe that ADP is overrated. Look at his spotlight thread - people are acting like projecting 12 td's for the guy is an absolute insult. He's being projected for near record breaking seasons. That's absurd!!Chester Taylor is not as good as he looked last year. He's just not. He benefited from that fantastic offensive line. Same with Peterson.ADP is clearly more talented than CT but that doesn't mean he's not overrated.

 

[LawFitz]

Well since you ignored my question, I looked it up myself to prove what I was saying. AD was not the same player after the injury...

Rushing Receiving Fumbles

Situation G Rush Yds Y/G Avg TD Rec Yds Y/G Avg Lng YAC 1stD TD Fum FumL

Games 1-8 8 158 1036 129.5 6.6 8 12 206 25.8 17.2 60 17.6 8 1 3 3

Games 9-16 6 80 305 50.8 3.8 4 7 62 10.3 8.9 17 10.6 5 0 1 0

The player everyone is drafting 1 or 2 is hopefully the guy who will put up stats similar to those seen in games 1-8, not the gimpy guy seen later in the season. Just watch the film. AD did not have the same burst after the injury.

Not take the 6.6 YPC and 17.2 YPR and tell me how that stacks up to your boy Chester.

As long as AD is healthy Chester will not see enough touches to have value on a roster other than the AD owner's.

 

[LawFitz]

Take the preinjury AD and he was 21% better than a very effective but unspectacular Chet.

 

[sholditch]

I think the bigger flaw here is using 0 yards a touch/carry as a baseline. No one averages 0 yards. Use the league average or 4 yards as a baseline here.

= 10.8% better

 

[Team Legacy]

Okay, lots of good discussion about this topic so far. The reason for the post was to REMIND the casual gamers that AD, again while SUPER TALENTED, (we can all see this) is running behind a FANTASTIC offensive line.

My post is to provoke thought when forming your rankings / projections and to continue to look for the VALUE plays, which in my opinion, Chester is clearly one of them. I also think you should try to BLOCK the AD owner in your drafts. When Minny's O-Line is proving to be that dominant, make him pay for it. If he doesn't CUFF AD by round 7, you take him.

Some of the commenters in this thread need to relax. Take the insight and form opinion. You don't look cool when you attack the OP. If you're feelin froggy, I'll lay a grand against any of you any day of the week that I'll out-draft you. Come play. Chances are... you won't.

http://www.antsports.com/leagues/lsignup.asp?LID=0565

 

[Team Legacy]

I think the bigger flaw here is using 0 yards a touch/carry as a baseline. No one averages 0 yards. Use the league average or 4 yards as a baseline here.

That's probably more correct isn't it, however the point of the thread wasn't the % difference, but to draw attention to the ability of BOTH players to succeed similarly in that offense.

 

[Dancing Bear]

Take the preinjury AD and he was 21% better than a very effective but unspectacular Chet.

LawFitz, your assessment is very flawed. You split Peterson's year evenly into weeks, but not according to when he was actually injured. He was injured at the end of the 3rd Quarter in Week 10 against the Packers.Peterson and Taylor played in only 12 games against the same team. In 7 of those games Peterson outperformed Taylor from a yards per rush perspective [Dallas, Philadelphia, Green Bay, Chicago, San Diego, Detroit and Washington] and Taylor outperformed Peterson in 5 games from a yards per rush perspective [Atlanta, Green Bay, San Francisco, Chicago and Denver].On average against the same competition they were less than 5% different.In games when Taylor was the only RB, he produced over 26 ppg!They both have NFL RB talent and they both have the same opportunity behind that nice O-Line.

 

[sholditch]

I think the bigger flaw here is using 0 yards a touch/carry as a baseline. No one averages 0 yards. Use the league average or 4 yards as a baseline here.

That's probably more correct isn't it, however the point of the thread wasn't the % difference, but to draw attention to the ability of BOTH players to succeed similarly in that offense.

So the point of the thread was to make a misleading statistic to back up your argument? Well, good of you to admit it.Also, and this is JUST a guess, but CT might not see the same amount of carries this year. I know that's way out in left field, but AD might just start every game he's healthy for, so the value you tout might not be the exact same as last year, when AD was an unproven rook vs. one of the most promising backs in the league. So he's valuable to AD owners, and valuable to others if AD gets hurt.

 

[LawFitz]

Take the preinjury AD and he was 21% better than a very effective but unspectacular Chet.

LawFitz, your assessment is very flawed. You split Peterson's year evenly into weeks, but not according to when he was actually injured. He was injured at the end of the 3rd Quarter in Week 10 against the Packers.

Nope, you're wrong. Week 10 was their 9th game due to the bye week. So just that half a game of healthy football was excluded from the "healthy AP" numbers I posted. If you really want to include them, fine here you go...169 car/ 1081 yds/ 6.4 YPC15 rec/ 220 yds/ 14.7 YPR184 touches/ 1301 yds/ 7.07 YPTor 17% better than ChesterChester is a good player behind a great OLine. AD is a great player behind a great OLine.Unless AD gets hurt again CT will not come anywhere near RB20 stats this season due to lack of opportunities.

 

[fourd]

I guess I'd just like to know how much more valuable he is in a league that counts yards and tds, not ypc.

 

[LawFitz]

Using 4 YPT as the base line instead of 0...

By this methodology combined with the healthy AD reasoning, AD was 50% better!!!

 

[Dinsy Ejotuz]

AD

238 carries

1341 yards

5.63 per carry

13 TDs

19 recepts

268 receiving yards

257 touches - 1609 yards

6.26 yards per touch

Chester

157 carries

844 yards

5.38 per carry

7 TDs

29 recepts

281 receiving yards

186 touches - 1125 yards

6.04 yards per touch

3.5% better ....

Per touch numbers are useless for RBs and WRs unless you're comparing guys with about the same number of touches. More talented players get more opportunities.Both guys played 14 games: AP had 38% more yards and 87% more TDs.

 

[Dirty Weasel]

Where do I get 3.5% ?

AD

257 touches - 1609 yards

6.26 yards per touch

Chester

186 touches - 1125 yards

6.04 yards per touch

3.5% better ....

Who wants to point out the flaw in this logic?

Jerious Norwood is better than LT, ADP, Westy, SJax, Addai, Gore, etc...130 touches - 892 yards

6.86 yards per touch

That is the flaw in this logic.

 

[pghrob]

What about the TD disparity? Is that part of the 3.5% result?

Age Pos G GS Att Yds TD Lng Y/A Y/G A/G Rec Yds Y/R TD Lng R/G Y/G YScm RRTD Fmb

Adrian L. Peterson* 22 RB 14 9 238 1341 12 73 5.6 95.8 17.0 19 268 14.1 1 60 1.4 19.1 1609 13 4

Chester Taylor 28 rb 14 8 157 844 7 84 5.4 60.3 11.2 29 281 9.7 0 50 2.1 20.1 1125 7 5

fantasy scoring

.10 pts. / rush and/or rec. yards

6 pts. / td rush or rec.

1 pt / rec.

-2 pts. / fumble

AP's FP's: 160.9 points for total rush and rec.yards (YScm)

+78 points for td's

+19 points for rec.

-8 points for fumbles

--------------------------------

= 249.9 total FP's

AP's total touches: 238 rush + 19 rec. = 257 touches

249.9 FP's/ 258 touches = 0.968 fantasy points per touch

CT's FP's: 112.5 points for total YScm

+42 points for td's

+29 points for rec.

- 10 points for fumbles

--------------------------------------

= 172.5 total FP's

CT's total touches: 157 rush + 29 rec. = 186 touches

172.5 FP's/ 186 touches = 0.927 fantasy points per touch

Edited for better formatting

 

[pollardsvision]

we can argue forever trying to put a number on something like this, but it really doesn't matter. here's what does:

1. chester taylor is a pretty good NFL running back

2. peterson is a physically talented as almost any RB in NFL history

3. a below average RB could succeed behind minny's O-line

4. peterson is more likely to get hurt than not

5. even if he doesn't get hurt, there is absolutely no reason chester shouldn't see significant touches. a smart coach would avoid running peterson into the ground when chester taylor is an option.

i envision fantasy owners getting frustated as peterson gets fewer touches than they'd like him to get (even though he can obviously have a great season without 350 carries).

chester, obviously, will provide great value.

 

[Maven]

Just look at their DVOA

 

[freshly_shorn]

I think of it this way- AP was better than most NFL RBs last year, and he was a rookie, still learning the ropes.

It's no contest. But Taylor *is* a mandatory handcuff to Peterson.

 

[maxwelledison]

we can argue forever trying to put a number on something like this, but it really doesn't matter. here's what does:1. chester taylor is a pretty good NFL running back2. peterson is a physically talented as almost any RB in NFL history3. a below average RB could succeed behind minny's O-line4. peterson is more likely to get hurt than not5. even if he doesn't get hurt, there is absolutely no reason chester shouldn't see significant touches. a smart coach would avoid running peterson into the ground when chester taylor is an option.i envision fantasy owners getting frustated as peterson gets fewer touches than they'd like him to get (even though he can obviously have a great season without 350 carries).chester, obviously, will provide great value.

This is one of those cases where #s just won't cut it. You may see 5 RBs with Peterson's talent for the rest of your life. You will see 100 Chester Taylors.

 

[puckalicious]

we can argue forever trying to put a number on something like this, but it really doesn't matter. here's what does:

1. chester taylor is a pretty good NFL running back

2. peterson is a physically talented as almost any RB in NFL history

3. a below average RB could succeed behind minny's O-line

4. peterson is more likely to get hurt than not

5. even if he doesn't get hurt, there is absolutely no reason chester shouldn't see significant touches. a smart coach would avoid running peterson into the ground when chester taylor is an option.

i envision fantasy owners getting frustated as peterson gets fewer touches than they'd like him to get (even though he can obviously have a great season without 350 carries).

chester, obviously, will provide great value.

Excuse my ignorance, but please explain point #4 without using words like "injury prone" and "he got injured last year". Every RB is more likely to get hurt than not. They play a game where grown men hurl themselves through the air in an attempt to purposely hurt them.Is CT a value play? Of course. Is he more talented than ADP? Simply ludicrous. This thread reminds me in some ways of how Ladell Betts was a "must have" player last year.

 

[Lord Lucan]

Now let's compare Peterson with another Viking. We'll call him player B.

Peterson

238 carries

1341 yards

5.63 per carry

13 TDs

19 recepts

268 receiving yards

257 touches - 1609 yards

6.26 yards per touch

Player B

2 carries

29 yards

14.5 per carry

18 recepts

240 yards

20 touches -269 yards

13.45 yards per touch

Player B is Troy Williamson. He more than doubled Peterson's yards per touch!!! Surely we should be targetting him, not Taylor?

What's that? Did someone say it's a misleading comparison because Williamson's touches came mostly on receptions? Well, so what? Taylor's reception totals were more than 50% greater than Peterson's, but the OP was happy to use them, completely unadjusted, in his comparison.

Still, if we're not going to take that sort of thing into account, why even bother considering such things as the huge percentage of Taylor's carries that were on draw plays on second or third and long? Or Peterson's 5.2 ypc on 1st and 10 compared with Taylor's 4.4ypc?

You have to compare like with like.

 

[Unlucky]

Peterson is the most talented RB in the NFL. Not necessarily the most durable, but purely talented.

Taylor is probably the best RB that is the 2nd best RB on his team. Maybe Fred Taylor/MJD would argue that, and maybe if Mendenhall proves himself, but otherwise, Taylor is a very good NFL running back.

 

[Rev]

Where do I get 3.5% ?

AD

257 touches - 1609 yards

6.26 yards per touch

Chester

186 touches - 1125 yards

6.04 yards per touch

3.5% better ....

Who wants to point out the flaw in this logic?

You have to acknowledge that AD was a rookie who's physical ability outran his mental understanding last year. Once teams began throwing 39-man fronts at him, he didn't have the NFL experience to make adjustments, which I would expect to change this year. Thus, his stellar YPC dropped to the still-stellar statistic above... plus he was nicked up a bit as someone else noted.On the other hand, Chester had the years of experience to adjust to the mental side of NFL defensive schemes, which, when combined with his role as the guy who gave defenses a break from AD, gave him a great opportunity for success.

2 good players, but there is no comparison IMO, especially when AD develops a greater understanding of the Pro game.

 

[gianmarco]

I understand the point of the OP, but isn't it stating the obvious? If you're trying to point out that AP is running behind a fantastic O-line which is proven by Chester's #'s, has anyone really ever argued against that? If there's one thing that I think we could get a 100% consensus agreement on in the FBG Shark Pool is that Minnesota has a great Offensive Line to run behind. So, I don't understand what's trying to be said there.

I'm guessing the second point is that because they have such a great line, Chester is going to do well and eat into AD's carries. Most AP owners realize this and I somewhat welcome it as I think it will keep him fresh from the beginning to the end of the season. As a selfish fantasy owner, I'd love to see him get 300+ carries, but I don't think that's gonna happen (at least not this year).

If another point you're trying to make is that the O-line is inflating AP's true #'s and talent, well, then that's where I'll have to draw the line and disagree. This is not to say that AP doesn't benefit from getting to run behind the Minny O-line or that he might not put up the same eye-popping stats if he were on a different team with an inferior o-line, but this should not be a knock on AP and a reason to call him overrated. No one started calling LT overrated just because the SD o-line improved. It was just something he was able to benefit from. It should absolutely NOT be a knock on AP that he gets to run behind arguably the best O-line in the game right now. Regardless of the O-line, AP is a special talent (which I know you admitted above) and is in a perfect marriage with an elite O-line. If you're lucky enough fantasy-wise to have hit this lottery ticket, just hang on for the ride and enjoy. To me, this is similar to trying to knock down Moss because he's now in NE and their passing game or Harrison/Wayne because they get to play with Peyton. Very few times do we get an ultra-talented player land in an ideal, elite situation. AP has that in Minnesota (with the exception of Chester taking looks away) just as Randy has it in NE. Just sit back and enjoy and let's stop the overrated talk about a guy as talented as AP until he actually shows he's overrated. I don't think he'll prove any of you right in the end if you really believe that.

 

[bonesman]

we can argue forever trying to put a number on something like this, but it really doesn't matter. here's what does:

1. chester taylor is a pretty good NFL running back

2. peterson is a physically talented as almost any RB in NFL history

3. a below average RB could succeed behind minny's O-line

4. peterson is more likely to get hurt than not

5. even if he doesn't get hurt, there is absolutely no reason chester shouldn't see significant touches. a smart coach would avoid running peterson into the ground when chester taylor is an option.

i envision fantasy owners getting frustated as peterson gets fewer touches than they'd like him to get (even though he can obviously have a great season without 350 carries).

chester, obviously, will provide great value.

I strongly agree with the bolded points. Minny knows ADP's injury history and they won't give him 25-30 carries a week as long as they have a back up as adequate as C. Taylor is.

 

[puckalicious]

we can argue forever trying to put a number on something like this, but it really doesn't matter. here's what does:

1. chester taylor is a pretty good NFL running back

2. peterson is a physically talented as almost any RB in NFL history

3. a below average RB could succeed behind minny's O-line

4. peterson is more likely to get hurt than not

5. even if he doesn't get hurt, there is absolutely no reason chester shouldn't see significant touches. a smart coach would avoid running peterson into the ground when chester taylor is an option.

i envision fantasy owners getting frustated as peterson gets fewer touches than they'd like him to get (even though he can obviously have a great season without 350 carries).

chester, obviously, will provide great value.

I strongly agree with the bolded points. Minny knows ADP's injury history and they won't give him 25-30 carries a week as long as they have a back up as adequate as C. Taylor is.

25-30 carries/game equals 400 - 480 on the season. Nobody gets 25 - 30 carries a game. Even without Taylor, ADP will likely never see this amount of carries.

 

[Team Legacy]

Where do I get 3.5% ?

AD

257 touches - 1609 yards

6.26 yards per touch

Chester

186 touches - 1125 yards

6.04 yards per touch

3.5% better ....

Who wants to point out the flaw in this logic?

Jerious Norwood is better than LT, ADP, Westy, SJax, Addai, Gore, etc...130 touches - 892 yards

6.86 yards per touch

That is the flaw in this logic.

I think his numbers show that he was a pretty dangerous weapon last season. Granted his carries are a little on the low side, I'd like to see what he could do with another 4-5 touches per game, which would put him around 200 total touches, but if you rank the guys with OVER 200 touches, it is a pretty good reflection of the best backs in the league last year.Chester in that offense was excellent. If I'm a coach, I don't want to wear my franchise player into the ground when I've got a guy who can do just about as good as he can with those highways opened up by that O-Line. Trust me, coaches look at statistics like these. Now, somebody asked, "what's the point". I think it's pretty clear. My point is for AD owners to take a hard look at these stats and decide when their time will come to CUFF their prized possession. Chester might just prove to be MORE than a cuff this season, so there's ADDED incentive to the AD owner to GRAB CHESTER on the 6/7 turn rather than waiting for the 8/9.

Name................YPT…..Touches…..Yards
Norwood, Jerious 6.86…..130…..892
Brown, Ronnie 6.27…..158…..991
Peterson, Adrian 6.26…..257…..1609
Taylor, Chester 6.04…..186…..1125
Westbrook, Brian 5.71…..368…..2104
Jones-Drew, Maurice 5.67…..207…..1175
Young, Selvin 5.48…..175…..960
Davenport, Najeh5.46…..125…..683
Taylor, Fred 5.43…..232…..1260
Williams, DeAngelo 5.35…..167…..894
Washington, Leon 5.28…..107…..566
Jacobs, Brandon 5.28…..224…..1183
Tomlinson, LaDainian 5.19…..375…..1949
Ward, Derrick 5.17…..151…..781
Morris, Maurice 5.15…..163…..841
Barber, Marion 5.08…..247…..1255
Grant, Ryan 5.05…..218…..1103
Maroney, Laurence 5.03…..189…..951
Watson, Kenny 4.94…..230…..1137
Brown, Chris 4.93…..120…..592
Gore, Frank 4.91…..313…..1538
Fargas, Justin4.88…..245…..1197
Addai, Joseph 4.75…..302…..1436
Lewis, Jamal4.71…..329…..1551
Jackson, Steven 4.62…..275…..1273
Jordan, LaMont 4.62…..172…..796
Morris, Sammy4.60…..91…..419
Peterson, Adrian 4.60…..202…..930
Keith, Kenton4.55…..134…..610
Graham, Earnest 4.50…..271…..1222
Smith, Musa 4.47…..102…..456
Betts, Ladell 4.46…..114…..509
Portis, Clinton 4.43…..372…..1651
Turner, Michael 4.42…..75…..332
Stecker, Aaron 4.36…..151…..659
Jackson, Brandon4.36…..91…..397
Chatman, Jesse 4.36…..155…..676
Lynch, Marshawn 4.35…..298…..1299
Henry, Travis4.34…..174…..756
Bush, Reggie 4.33…..230…..998
Rhodes, Dominic 4.32…..86…..372
Parker, Willie 4.30…..344…..1480
McGahee, Willis 4.26…..337…..1438
Dayne, Ron4.19…..211…..885
Jones, Julius 4.19…..188…..788
Leonard, Brian 4.18…..116…..486
Jones, Kevin 4.18…..186…..778
Smith, Kolby 4.14…..134…..555
James, Edgerrin 4.09…..349…..1428
Foster, DeShaun 3.98…..253…..1009
Johnson, Larry 3.96…..188…..745
Jones, Thomas 3.95…..338…..1336
White, LenDale 3.77…..324…..1222
Benson, Cedric3.74…..214…..801
Dunn, Warrick 3.60…..265…..956
Alexander, Shaun3.58…..221…..792
Droughns, Reuben 3.52…..92…..324
Johnson, Rudi 3.31…..183…..607

 

[teamroc]

Pretty much.

You can't guarantee Chester's production wouldn't have declined if he had the additional 71 touches AD received.

Oh gimme a break, that's as big a reach as the one you're suggesting that I'm making. Although what I'm doing is stating facts. The Minny O-Line has much to do with AD's success. He's a super talent, but let's look at Chester for comparison sake, and he stacks up as a capable starter and a MUST cuff for AD owners spending NO LATER than a 7th round pick.

You're really, really, ignoring things behind those statistics. The situations when these two are on the field are much different, you can't make these types of comparisons on YPC data alone. Do some more research, a lot of it, and come back. Chances are you'll never be able to "prove" one better than the other on statistics alone.

It's not that complicated. Based on CTs performance, which is pretty impressive, you have to give the Minny o-line a lot of credit. Hmm, okay, seems to make sense. Your point is, nonononononono AD is superman don't dare credit anyone?!!?. But good work with the fancy lettering.

 

[Lord Lucan]

Now, somebody asked, "what's the point". I think it's pretty clear. My point is for AD owners to take a hard look at these stats and decide when their time will come to CUFF their prized possession. Chester might just prove to be MORE than a cuff this season, so there's ADDED incentive to the AD owner to GRAB CHESTER on the 6/7 turn rather than waiting for the 8/9.

Every Peterson owner knows that it makes sense to try and get Taylor too, and it's pretty much common knowledge that you probably have to get him at the 6:12/7:1 turn (unless maybe you trade down a few spots), as he likely won't be around at 8:12/9:1.The issue with your original post is that you chose misleading statistics to make your point about Taylor. Yards per touch is completely meaningless in this context as Taylor had 50% more receptions than Peterson, and you cannot compare reception yardage to rushing yardage, as typically receving yardage would be around twice as much per touch as rushing yardage. Also, the yards per touch stats completely ignore context. If you think this is meaningless, ask yourself why Jerome Bettis had such an awful ypc figure his final season. Was it simply a deterioration of skills, or did the fact that he was usually wheeled out when it was first down and goal, or third and inches have something to do with it? The situations that a player gets touches in have a direct correlation with his yards per touch. It's by no means unusual for back-ups to out-perform starters in terms of yards-per carry; think Lamont Jordan v Curtis Martin, or indeed Richard Huntley v Bettis; or even think LT v Turner , who averages fully a yard per carry more than LT. Defenses prepare more for the starter; the starter gets fewer breathers; the starter is less likely to get those 3rd-and-20 draw plays which give up an easy 8 or 10 yards; the starter often gives way to the back-up against tired defenses in blow-outs in the 4th quarter.As has been posted earlier, DVOA is a much better statistical tool than ypc, but even DVOA can't make allowances for things like defenses relaxing when the premier RB takes a breather. Sometimes, you just have to watch the games.