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How much you downgrading LJ and/or Droughns? (1 Viewer)

BigRed

Footballguy
Offhand my thought on both is "a little." I wonder how telling pre-season will be...seems to me what we see there is usually overblown...

 
In Droughns case, he is already a horrendous goal line back so I'm not sure how going from Melvin Fowler to Bob Hallen at center is going to make him improve on his 2005 fantasy ranking (RB14).

 
Didn't Cleveland upgrade their OL this year? I know they had an injury to their C, but the other positions have been upgraded as I recall. I have Droughns rated higher going into this year than where he ended last season.

 
I've dropped LJ down in my dynasty rankings as well. Shields is 35, this has quickly gone from the best o-line in football to an average one at best.

 
LJ will be affected a bit. But so is Alexander by the loss of Hutchinson. Droughns losing his OL shouldn't affect him too much, since, as Jason Wood points out, he wasn't a TD threat at all. I was crossing my fingers for Droughns too, after nabbing him in several leagues... :wall:

 
In Droughns case, he is already a horrendous goal line back so I'm not sure how going from Melvin Fowler to Bob Hallen at center is going to make him improve on his 2005 fantasy ranking (RB14).
Fowler? Holy time warps Batman!
 
already had LJ at my #4 because of what I felt were going to be O-line issues.
he was missing roaf for 6 games last year, didn't stop him then, won't stop him now..it hurts TONY GONZALEZ more than anyone else, as he'll have to stay in to block more often....
 
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already had LJ at my #4 because of what I felt were going to be O-line issues.
he was missing roaf for 6 games last year, didn't stop him then, won't stop him now..
I keep reading this over and over. They didn't just lose Roaf, they also lost another starting tackle, their all pro blocking FB, their off. coordinator and head coach. All these changes WILL DEFINITELY have an impact the question is how much....
 
already had LJ at my #4 because of what I felt were going to be O-line issues.
he was missing roaf for 6 games last year, didn't stop him then, won't stop him now..it hurts TONY GONZALEZ more than anyone else, as he'll have to stay in to block more often....
It would be interesting to compare the Chiefs' rushing stats with and without Roaf. Does anyone know where to get such kind of information?
 
LJ is now #4 or #5 .....

LT

Alexander

Portis

Tiki

LJ

THE REST
I think Tiki is on the downslope of his career and won't finish in the top 5. I could be wrong, but I think his age catches up to him this year.
 
already had LJ at my #4 because of what I felt were going to be O-line issues.
he was missing roaf for 6 games last year, didn't stop him then, won't stop him now..it hurts TONY GONZALEZ more than anyone else, as he'll have to stay in to block more often....
It would be interesting to compare the Chiefs' rushing stats with and without Roaf. Does anyone know where to get such kind of information?
they're in the Roaf retirement thread
 
LJ is still LJ and the system is still the system.

That said, I originally had it -

1. LJ

2. Alexander

3. Tomlinson

4. Portis

5. Barber

6. Jackson

7. Jordan

Now -

1. Alexander

2. Tomlinson

3. LJ

I still say he is a no-brainer top 3 pick and if he slides to me at #5 I will be shocked.

 
Don't forget to upgrade LJ since he'll start almost twice as many games this year.

I know that the Chiefs have a ton of issues, but don't forget too quickly that this guy was a full tier (maybe 2) ahead of even the elite backs when he was starting.

 
In Droughns case, he is already a horrendous goal line back so I'm not sure how going from Melvin Fowler to Bob Hallen at center is going to make him improve on his 2005 fantasy ranking (RB14).
FYI, Faine was the center last year, Fowler was traded last preseason to Minnesota, so never played center with Droughns. As far as the upgrade to the line, we got Shafer at LT which isn't much of an upgrade over that guy that played for Arizona, shows how memoriable he was to me, he is slipping my mind. The only other upgrade was Bentley at center over Faine. I don't think this hurts much, we will be ok, and Droughns will be fine. Don't downgrade him at all. The line will be better because it will have gelled together longer.
 
Don't forget to upgrade LJ since he'll start almost twice as many games this year.
Don't forget to downgrade his 2nd half production since he has to play in twice as many games this year.
 
already had LJ at my #4 because of what I felt were going to be O-line issues.
he was missing roaf for 6 games last year, didn't stop him then, won't stop him now..
I keep reading this over and over. They didn't just lose Roaf, they also lost another starting tackle, their all pro blocking FB, their off. coordinator and head coach. All these changes WILL DEFINITELY have an impact the question is how much....
John Welbourn and Jordan Black, two guys who started at the other T position, are still there. Maybe you're thinking of when the Chiefs lost John Tait, but that was two years ago. The only big loss is Roaf.Richardson is/was a very good FB. But last year, Johnson ran in a single-back set 192 times for 1052 yards. He'll be fine without Richardson.

 
- I have LJ 4th, behind Tomlinson, Alexander and Portis.

- Droughns is not someone I like at all. He won't get a lot of TD work. Frye won't be able to keep defenses off the LOS. Harrison and Suggs may contribute more than most think.

 
already had LJ at my #4 because of what I felt were going to be O-line issues.
he was missing roaf for 6 games last year, didn't stop him then, won't stop him now..
I keep reading this over and over. They didn't just lose Roaf, they also lost another starting tackle, their all pro blocking FB, their off. coordinator and head coach. All these changes WILL DEFINITELY have an impact the question is how much....
John Welbourn and Jordan Black, two guys who started at the other T position, are still there. Maybe you're thinking of when the Chiefs lost John Tait, but that was two years ago. The only big loss is Roaf.Richardson is/was a very good FB. But last year, Johnson ran in a single-back set 192 times for 1052 yards. He'll be fine without Richardson.
My bad, I could have swore that I read that Welbourn retired.
 
already had LJ at my #4 because of what I felt were going to be O-line issues.
he was missing roaf for 6 games last year, didn't stop him then, won't stop him now..
I keep reading this over and over. They didn't just lose Roaf, they also lost another starting tackle, their all pro blocking FB, their off. coordinator and head coach. All these changes WILL DEFINITELY have an impact the question is how much....
John Welbourn and Jordan Black, two guys who started at the other T position, are still there. Maybe you're thinking of when the Chiefs lost John Tait, but that was two years ago. The only big loss is Roaf.Richardson is/was a very good FB. But last year, Johnson ran in a single-back set 192 times for 1052 yards. He'll be fine without Richardson.
My bad, I could have swore that I read that Welbourn retired.
Perennial Pro Bowl tackle Roaf retires By Adam Schefter

NFL Analyst

Adam Schefter's "Around the League" reports and commentaries can be seen regularly on NFL Total Access.

(July 28, 2006) -- Eleven-time Pro Bowl selection and future Hall of Fame offensive tackle Willie Roaf intends to retire, his agent Peter Schaffer confirmed this morning.

"He's retiring to spend more time with his family," said Schaffer, adding that Roaf is now in Pine Bluff, Ark., celebrating his son's birthday this weekend.

Roaf also has battled knee and hamstring injuries that have left him hobbling and wondering whether he could play at the same level he always had. At training camp last summer, Roaf told NFL Network he expected the 2005 season to be his last, but the offensive tackle clearly wavered in his thinking before deciding he had enough in recent weeks.

Roaf's decision is a big blow to the Kansas City Chiefs and what typically has been football's best offensive line. It already had lost right tackle John Welbourn to retirement and now has lost Roaf, leaving the Chiefs to patch up a unit that has dominated in recent years.

Now, when the Chiefs assemble for their first training camp practice this afternoon, Jordan Black will line up as Kansas City's starting left tackle and free-agent acquisition Kyle Turley will line up as the team's starting right tackle.

A Chiefs spokesman said Roaf's decision did not surprise them. The Chiefs knew that Roaf was on a year-to-year basis when they traded for him in 2002. Now that year has come, Schaffer said, and Roaf is done.

It also marks the second successive day an offensive lineman has made some of the biggest news of the day. On July 27, Cleveland center LeCharles Bentley, the face of the Browns free-agent class, ruptured his Achilles' tendon on the team's first contact play of training camp. Bentley will miss the 2006 season.

 
already had LJ at my #4 because of what I felt were going to be O-line issues.
he was missing roaf for 6 games last year, didn't stop him then, won't stop him now..
I keep reading this over and over. They didn't just lose Roaf, they also lost another starting tackle, their all pro blocking FB, their off. coordinator and head coach. All these changes WILL DEFINITELY have an impact the question is how much....
John Welbourn and Jordan Black, two guys who started at the other T position, are still there. Maybe you're thinking of when the Chiefs lost John Tait, but that was two years ago. The only big loss is Roaf.Richardson is/was a very good FB. But last year, Johnson ran in a single-back set 192 times for 1052 yards. He'll be fine without Richardson.
My bad, I could have swore that I read that Welbourn retired.
Perennial Pro Bowl tackle Roaf retires By Adam Schefter

NFL Analyst

Adam Schefter's "Around the League" reports and commentaries can be seen regularly on NFL Total Access.

(July 28, 2006) -- Eleven-time Pro Bowl selection and future Hall of Fame offensive tackle Willie Roaf intends to retire, his agent Peter Schaffer confirmed this morning.

"He's retiring to spend more time with his family," said Schaffer, adding that Roaf is now in Pine Bluff, Ark., celebrating his son's birthday this weekend.

Roaf also has battled knee and hamstring injuries that have left him hobbling and wondering whether he could play at the same level he always had. At training camp last summer, Roaf told NFL Network he expected the 2005 season to be his last, but the offensive tackle clearly wavered in his thinking before deciding he had enough in recent weeks.

Roaf's decision is a big blow to the Kansas City Chiefs and what typically has been football's best offensive line. It already had lost right tackle John Welbourn to retirement and now has lost Roaf, leaving the Chiefs to patch up a unit that has dominated in recent years.

Now, when the Chiefs assemble for their first training camp practice this afternoon, Jordan Black will line up as Kansas City's starting left tackle and free-agent acquisition Kyle Turley will line up as the team's starting right tackle.

A Chiefs spokesman said Roaf's decision did not surprise them. The Chiefs knew that Roaf was on a year-to-year basis when they traded for him in 2002. Now that year has come, Schaffer said, and Roaf is done.

It also marks the second successive day an offensive lineman has made some of the biggest news of the day. On July 27, Cleveland center LeCharles Bentley, the face of the Browns free-agent class, ruptured his Achilles' tendon on the team's first contact play of training camp. Bentley will miss the 2006 season.
LOL, that's where I read it!! Thanks.
 
already had LJ at my #4 because of what I felt were going to be O-line issues.
he was missing roaf for 6 games last year, didn't stop him then, won't stop him now..
I keep reading this over and over. They didn't just lose Roaf, they also lost another starting tackle, their all pro blocking FB, their off. coordinator and head coach. All these changes WILL DEFINITELY have an impact the question is how much....
John Welbourn and Jordan Black, two guys who started at the other T position, are still there. Maybe you're thinking of when the Chiefs lost John Tait, but that was two years ago. The only big loss is Roaf.Richardson is/was a very good FB. But last year, Johnson ran in a single-back set 192 times for 1052 yards. He'll be fine without Richardson.
My bad, I could have swore that I read that Welbourn retired.
Perennial Pro Bowl tackle Roaf retires By Adam Schefter

NFL Analyst

Adam Schefter's "Around the League" reports and commentaries can be seen regularly on NFL Total Access.

(July 28, 2006) -- Eleven-time Pro Bowl selection and future Hall of Fame offensive tackle Willie Roaf intends to retire, his agent Peter Schaffer confirmed this morning.

"He's retiring to spend more time with his family," said Schaffer, adding that Roaf is now in Pine Bluff, Ark., celebrating his son's birthday this weekend.

Roaf also has battled knee and hamstring injuries that have left him hobbling and wondering whether he could play at the same level he always had. At training camp last summer, Roaf told NFL Network he expected the 2005 season to be his last, but the offensive tackle clearly wavered in his thinking before deciding he had enough in recent weeks.

Roaf's decision is a big blow to the Kansas City Chiefs and what typically has been football's best offensive line. It already had lost right tackle John Welbourn to retirement and now has lost Roaf, leaving the Chiefs to patch up a unit that has dominated in recent years.

Now, when the Chiefs assemble for their first training camp practice this afternoon, Jordan Black will line up as Kansas City's starting left tackle and free-agent acquisition Kyle Turley will line up as the team's starting right tackle.

A Chiefs spokesman said Roaf's decision did not surprise them. The Chiefs knew that Roaf was on a year-to-year basis when they traded for him in 2002. Now that year has come, Schaffer said, and Roaf is done.

It also marks the second successive day an offensive lineman has made some of the biggest news of the day. On July 27, Cleveland center LeCharles Bentley, the face of the Browns free-agent class, ruptured his Achilles' tendon on the team's first contact play of training camp. Bentley will miss the 2006 season.
LOL, that's where I read it!! Thanks.
i've read conflicting things though...seems confusing
 
Roaf's retirement is obviously a huge loss, but I wouldn't automatically drop LJ right off the bat.

Tomlinson has shown for some time that he can perform even with a mediocre (at best) line. We'll see if LJ has anywhere near that kind of ability.

 
already had LJ at my #4 because of what I felt were going to be O-line issues.
he was missing roaf for 6 games last year, didn't stop him then, won't stop him now..it hurts TONY GONZALEZ more than anyone else, as he'll have to stay in to block more often....
:hifive: Roaf left in the first Quarter of week 1 last year and Johnson piled up 110 yards and 2 touchdowns on just 9 carries.

In the next three games, all of which Roaf missed, LJ went 9 for 41 and a TD, 8 for 13, and 7 for 34.

When Roaf reaggravated his injury and went out again against Oakland, LJ still managed 107 yards and 2 TDs. Roaf missed the next two games also. In those two games Johnson managed 132 yards and a 211 2 TD effort.

If LJ was your number one before Roaf announced his retirement don't jump ship so soon. If you had other concerns about LJ thats fine, but don't look at Roaf's retirement as LJ's downfall.

 
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already had LJ at my #4 because of what I felt were going to be O-line issues.
he was missing roaf for 6 games last year, didn't stop him then, won't stop him now..
I keep reading this over and over. They didn't just lose Roaf, they also lost another starting tackle, their all pro blocking FB, their off. coordinator and head coach. All these changes WILL DEFINITELY have an impact the question is how much....
John Welbourn and Jordan Black, two guys who started at the other T position, are still there. Maybe you're thinking of when the Chiefs lost John Tait, but that was two years ago. The only big loss is Roaf.Richardson is/was a very good FB. But last year, Johnson ran in a single-back set 192 times for 1052 yards. He'll be fine without Richardson.
My bad, I could have swore that I read that Welbourn retired.
Perennial Pro Bowl tackle Roaf retires By Adam Schefter

NFL Analyst

Adam Schefter's "Around the League" reports and commentaries can be seen regularly on NFL Total Access.

(July 28, 2006) -- Eleven-time Pro Bowl selection and future Hall of Fame offensive tackle Willie Roaf intends to retire, his agent Peter Schaffer confirmed this morning.

"He's retiring to spend more time with his family," said Schaffer, adding that Roaf is now in Pine Bluff, Ark., celebrating his son's birthday this weekend.

Roaf also has battled knee and hamstring injuries that have left him hobbling and wondering whether he could play at the same level he always had. At training camp last summer, Roaf told NFL Network he expected the 2005 season to be his last, but the offensive tackle clearly wavered in his thinking before deciding he had enough in recent weeks.

Roaf's decision is a big blow to the Kansas City Chiefs and what typically has been football's best offensive line. It already had lost right tackle John Welbourn to retirement and now has lost Roaf, leaving the Chiefs to patch up a unit that has dominated in recent years.

Now, when the Chiefs assemble for their first training camp practice this afternoon, Jordan Black will line up as Kansas City's starting left tackle and free-agent acquisition Kyle Turley will line up as the team's starting right tackle.

A Chiefs spokesman said Roaf's decision did not surprise them. The Chiefs knew that Roaf was on a year-to-year basis when they traded for him in 2002. Now that year has come, Schaffer said, and Roaf is done.

It also marks the second successive day an offensive lineman has made some of the biggest news of the day. On July 27, Cleveland center LeCharles Bentley, the face of the Browns free-agent class, ruptured his Achilles' tendon on the team's first contact play of training camp. Bentley will miss the 2006 season.
LOL, that's where I read it!! Thanks.
i've read conflicting things though...seems confusing
:shrug: The Chiefs' website still has Welbourn on there.

 
Johnson was my #2, and I'm rolling around the idea of putting Tomlinson ahead of him. I'm not convinced of it yet.

He's certainly going no lower than #3. Roaf is a great run blocker, but his loss was felt almost exclusively in the passing game. (Which, for the record, will fall off at an almost-unprecedented rate -- downgrade Trent Green A.S.A.P.)

He's still going to get at least 1400 yards, and probably significantly more, and I'd be surprised if he sees the endzone less than 12-14 times.

 
In Droughns case, he is already a horrendous goal line back so I'm not sure how going from Melvin Fowler to Bob Hallen at center is going to make him improve on his 2005 fantasy ranking (RB14).
Melvin Fowler played for the Vikings last year.ETA...you base a RB's goal line performances on one guy?

 
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I'm trying to move Johnson, but I am having trouble finding a suitable return.

Without Roaf his production should slip, but will it be enough to justify trading him for a subpar deal?

I figure I'm going to ask for the moon and if I get it fine, if not, that's okay too.

 
Chase's splits data also shows the following, which should be a concern:

LJ Run Splits...

Left Side -- 126 rushes for 718 yards (5.7 YPC), 10 TDs
Center -- 135 rushes for 680 yards (5.0 YPC), 6 TDs
Right Side -- 75 rushes for 352 yards (4.7 YPC), 4 TDshttp://sports.espn.go.com/nfl/players/splits?playerId=4485
Interesting to compare that distribution, and Roaf's impact on LJ, to Seattle's run distribution, and Hutchinson's impact on Sean Alexander.SA Run Splits ...

Left Side -- 168 rushes for 756 yards (4.5 YPC), 20 TDs

Center -- 86 rushes for 357 yards (4.2 YPC), 2 TDs

Right Side -- 116 rushes for 767 yards (6.6 YPC), 6 TDs

Sean Alexander scored 70% of his TDs on the left side. LJ scored 50%. However, Alexander actually had a considerably better YPC on the right side than the left whereas LJ had a considerably better YPC on the left.

Seems like both will be pretty evenly impacted by the departure of Hutchinson and Roaf.

 
What frightens me is the split about formations.13 of LJ's 17 rushing touchdowns were in the I formation. :cry: From Whispers around the NFL:

• At first glance, the inexperienced Ronnie Cruz stepping in at fullback for the departed Tony Richardson would seem to be an issue in Kansas City, but it should be noted that Richardson's role had diminished with age and the Chiefs have utilized more two-TE, single-back sets recently.
Again, :cry: for LJ owners. He's got the YPC down in the singleback formation but the TD's lag behind considerably. For those talking about Welbourn, Ourlads (which has already updated KC's depth charts to exclude Roaf) has listed Welbourn on the roster considerably buried behind the tackle depth.
 
i've read conflicting things though...seems confusing
Do you have any links? This isn't a request just to be an #######, I just haven't read anything that mentions Welbourn might come back except a vague quote from Edwards stating "There’s nothing to say a guy can’t unretire and come back. I’ve seen guys do that" which sounds a little desperate and wishful on the part of Edwards. It's not even like Welbourn was a strength of their line in the first place, he was just better than Sampson and Black.The depth at OT isn't going to scare many; Sampson, Black, Turley. I really like Wiegmann but can Shields continue to beat the odds by playing at such a high level?

 
Chase's splits data also shows the following, which should be a concern:

LJ Run Splits...

Left Side -- 126 rushes for 718 yards (5.7 YPC), 10 TDs
Center -- 135 rushes for 680 yards (5.0 YPC), 6 TDs
Right Side -- 75 rushes for 352 yards (4.7 YPC), 4 TDshttp://sports.espn.go.com/nfl/players/splits?playerId=4485
Interesting to compare that distribution, and Roaf's impact on LJ, to Seattle's run distribution, and Hutchinson's impact on Sean Alexander.SA Run Splits ...

Left Side -- 168 rushes for 756 yards (4.5 YPC), 20 TDs

Center -- 86 rushes for 357 yards (4.2 YPC), 2 TDs

Right Side -- 116 rushes for 767 yards (6.6 YPC), 6 TDs

Sean Alexander scored 70% of his TDs on the left side. LJ scored 50%. However, Alexander actually had a considerably better YPC on the right side than the left whereas LJ had a considerably better YPC on the left.

Seems like both will be pretty evenly impacted by the departure of Hutchinson and Roaf.
Good info-Alexander ran to the left side 45% of the time compared to 31% of the time to the right. I think it is reasonable to speculate that defenses schemed and shifted thier alignments to key on left side runs. The high ypc we see on the right I think comes from cutback lanes created by the defense stacking left.

For Johnson were not seeing the same thing. The ypc is lower on the right side than the left and the majority of the run plays are to the middle. Adding the splits of carries from Priest would give a better sample size for comparison. I do not see losing Roaf as in any way helping. However as previously stated Roaf was more accomplished as a pass blocker than a mauler in the running game. Although he was certainly better than average blocking for the run also.

The Chiefs outside running uses more pulling from the guards than what Seattle does from what I have seen. So the LT on these plays has to hold the point to keep that defender from getting in behind the pulling guard.

I think the loss of Hutch will have more impact to SA than the loss of Roaf for LJ. But I also think Seattle has a better quality replacement for Hutch than the Chiefs have for Roaf. So my guess is it will be somewhat of a wash.

I don't think it will drop either Rb from the top 3 but we may have EOY numbers for Rbs in a closer pack in 2006 for the top 12 Rbs than we have seen recently as total TDs for the top 3 players will likely be down.

I like LT to maintain his level of production or improve it more than I do SA or LJ.

 

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