How Often Does An NFL Kicker Make The Kick From ___ Yards? - An Answer (1 Viewer)

[Joe Bryant]

This question came up the other day and I couldn't find a good answer.

I asked Dan Hindery on our staff and he crushed this.

Enjoy.

Field Goal Success Rates

Assessing the 2023 Performance of NFL Kickers

www.footballguys.com

 

[Joe Bryant]

The Justin Tucker stats about how much better he's been this year than average was shocking to me.

 

[amnesiac]

just throwing this out there, the stats may be a bit skewed depending on how you're trying to use this data.

for example, the longer kicks (maybe 50+?) are only being attempted by kickers that have a higher success rate.

meaning, if you have a weak kicker, they are probably lining up with a less than 71% chance of making a 50 yard FG.

in other words, if you lined up every kicker in the NFL for a 50 yard kick, the percentage would likely go down.

 

[da_budman]

The Justin Tucker stats about how much better he's been this year than average was shocking to me.

I must be reading this wrong. I see tucker expected to make 10.67 fgs and actually making 11... good for 17th place. A little help on what you are seeing por favor?

 

[eighsse2]

The Justin Tucker stats about how much better he's been this year than average was shocking to me.

I must be reading this wrong. I see tucker expected to make 10.67 fgs and actually making 11... good for 17th place. A little help on what you are seeing por favor?

I thought Joe meant he was surprised by how little above average Tucker grades out as so far this year.

 

[Joe Bryant]

just throwing this out there, the stats may be a bit skewed depending on how you're trying to use this data.

for example, the longer kicks (maybe 50+?) are only being attempted by kickers that have a higher success rate.

meaning, if you have a weak kicker, they are probably lining up with a less than 71% chance of making a 50 yard FG.

in other words, if you lined up every kicker in the NFL for a 50 yard kick, the percentage would likely go down.

Sure. I was trying to answer the simple question of how often a kicker makes it from ___ distance when they attempt it.

This came up when the 49ers missed a 41 yard field goal. And I wondered how often that happens.

 

[Joe Bryant]

The Justin Tucker stats about how much better he's been this year than average was shocking to me.

I must be reading this wrong. I see tucker expected to make 10.67 fgs and actually making 11... good for 17th place. A little help on what you are seeing por favor?

I thought Joe meant he was surprised by how little above average Tucker grades out as so far this year.

Yes. Sorry I wasn't clear. I was shocked to see Tucker as #17 for expectations above average. Granted it's a small sample size. But still. Butker is where I thought he'd be.

 

[amnesiac]

just throwing this out there, the stats may be a bit skewed depending on how you're trying to use this data.

for example, the longer kicks (maybe 50+?) are only being attempted by kickers that have a higher success rate.

meaning, if you have a weak kicker, they are probably lining up with a less than 71% chance of making a 50 yard FG.

in other words, if you lined up every kicker in the NFL for a 50 yard kick, the percentage would likely go down.

Sure. I was trying to answer the simple question of how often a kicker makes it from ___ distance when they attempt it.

This came up when the 49ers missed a 41 yard field goal. And I wondered how often that happens.

thank you for answering the question.

i wasn't meaning to poop on your work, i was just trying to maybe provide some context?

 

[Joe Bryant]

just throwing this out there, the stats may be a bit skewed depending on how you're trying to use this data.

for example, the longer kicks (maybe 50+?) are only being attempted by kickers that have a higher success rate.

meaning, if you have a weak kicker, they are probably lining up with a less than 71% chance of making a 50 yard FG.

in other words, if you lined up every kicker in the NFL for a 50 yard kick, the percentage would likely go down.

Sure. I was trying to answer the simple question of how often a kicker makes it from ___ distance when they attempt it.

This came up when the 49ers missed a 41 yard field goal. And I wondered how often that happens.

thank you for answering the question.

i wasn't meaning to poop on your work, i was just trying to maybe provide some context?

No worries. I was surprised this info wasn't readily available so Dan put it together.

 

[da_budman]

The
Justin Tucker
stats about how much better he's been this year than average was shocking to me.

I must be reading this wrong. I see tucker expected to make 10.67 fgs and actually making 11... good for 17th place. A little help on what you are seeing por favor?

I thought Joe meant he was surprised by how little above average
Tucker
grades out as so far this year.

Yes. Sorry I wasn't clear. I was shocked to see
Tucker
as #17 for expectations above average. Granted it's a small sample size. But still.
Butker
is where I thought he'd be.

Thanks. Makes sense. You know if you think of it a different way the fact that you were surprised at a guy being about average of the best of the best fg kickers is really a testament to how great the guy has been for so many years. He is easliy top 5 of all time imo.

 

[titusbramble]

A "what length field goal could you kick" poll would be a good one

 

[ignatiusjreilly]

A "what length field goal could you kick" poll would be a good one

Based on past questions, there would need to be money involved: "How long a FG could you kick for $1M?" Because I guess the promise of money would send adrenalin rushing to our kicking legs

 

[Dickies]

This chart just reinforces my belief that kickers in the NFL have gotten insanely good over the last 20 years.

 

[Leroy Hoard]

A "what length field goal could you kick" poll would be a good one

Based on past questions, there would need to be money involved: "How long a FG could you kick for $1M?" Because I guess the promise of money would send adrenalin rushing to our kicking legs

Give me a few months to train and I should be good from about 13 yards out.

 

[ignatiusjreilly]

A "what length field goal could you kick" poll would be a good one

Based on past questions, there would need to be money involved: "How long a FG could you kick for $1M?" Because I guess the promise of money would send adrenalin rushing to our kicking legs

Give me a few months to train and I should be good from about 13 yards out.

IIRC the only time I've ever really tried was when I was in my early teens, maybe 13 or 14. Longest I could make -- with zero practice -- was from the goal line, so the actual distance was 10 yards but in football terms it was a zero-yard FG

 

[Dez]

I knew the XP was at 95% a year or so ago someone said that which is how I guessed 90% from 41 yards. Actually 42 yards is nearly 83%. I am glad I could spark a debate.

 

[rockaction]

IIRC the only time I've ever really tried was when I was in my early teens, maybe 13 or 14. Longest I could make -- with zero practice -- was from the goal line, so the actual distance was 10 yards but in football terms it was a zero-yard FG

If you were a soccer player, it's a really easy proposition. I played soccer in high school and then kicked in my post-grad year of high school as well as my first year of college (yes, on the actual football team).

For a million dollars, I'd bet I could still hit a thirty-five yarder with no tee (college and pro style kicking), and I'm fifty years old. It was really easy to do it back then. I wonder how much my body has atrophied.

 

[Ardbeg4ever]

A "what length field goal could you kick" poll would be a good one

Based on past questions, there would need to be money involved: "How long a FG could you kick for $1M?" Because I guess the promise of money would send adrenalin rushing to our kicking legs

Give me a few months to train and I should be good from about 13 yards out.

IIRC the only time I've ever really tried was when I was in my early teens, maybe 13 or 14. Longest I could make -- with zero practice -- was from the goal line, so the actual distance was 10 yards but in football terms it was a zero-yard FG

If the line of scrimmage is the 1, the spot is at the 8 and they would call it an 18 yard FG.

 

[Leroy's Aces]

to rockaction: So you would wager $1 million of your net worth to get $1 million at 35 yards? If so, kudos to you. But I highly doubt you would. I made a 35 yarder easy at NFL draft weekend in Chicago a few years ago and kicked a bit in high school but would need like 3 to 1 to risk that amount on a single kick (even with weeks of training for it) but would love to try it at those odds.

 

[Deamon]

For a million dollars, I'd bet I could still hit a thirty-five yarder with no tee

how far could you kick one for TWO million dollars?

 

[Ignoratio Elenchi]

The Justin Tucker stats about how much better he's been this year than average was shocking to me.

This kind of gets to amnesiac's point above. Justin Tucker's misses this year were from 59 and 61 yards. He's only 2/10 from that distance in his career; his max reliable range is about 56 yards. Statistically he is worse than "average" on kicks longer than that (but of course that average is inflated because only kickers who are more likely to make 57+ yard kicks typically attempt 57+ yard kicks).

So the fact that 2 of his 13 attempts this year were from a distance he was unlikely to make (relative to the historical average) is what's driving the small gap you're observing. As the season goes on and his attempts from that distance drop from 15% to more like 5%, you should see the results you're citing align more closely with your expectations.

 

[Da Guru]

When you look at kicker stats the last 5 years the improvement is amazing.

Long time Lion kicker Jason Hanson who was regarded as one of the best is his day had a career FG % of 82% That would be a low level kicker in todays game.

I remember watching Jake Moody in HS. Moody was not a football player or a soccer player. I think he played baseball.

My buddys son hung around with him. I guess story goes he was screwing around on the football field kicking and making 50+ yarders when he was young. I go to a HS game when Moody was a junior and his kickoffs were going out of the endzone and he made a 55 yarder.

Got a walk on to Michigan and the rest is history.

 

[jabarony]

to rockaction: So you would wager $1 million of your net worth to get $1 million at 35 yards? If so, kudos to you. But I highly doubt you would. I made a 35 yarder easy at NFL draft weekend in Chicago a few years ago and kicked a bit in high school but would need like 3 to 1 to risk that amount on a single kick (even with weeks of training for it) but would love to try it at those odds.

I’d never wager my future on anything like this, but realistically I’d put $1000 down that I would make a 35 yarder. Give me 2-1 and I’ll likely sail a 40-yarder through.

 

[Doug B]

If the line of scrimmage is the 1, the spot is at the 8 and they would call it an 18 yard FG.

I've been noticing some guys setting up an extra yard back -- an eight-yard snap to the holder instead of the classic seven-yard snap. Guess it helps to not have to get quite as much immediate lift on the kick.

 

[Doug B]

The Justin Tucker stats about how much better he's been this year than average was shocking to me.

This kind of gets to amnesiac's point above. Justin Tucker's misses this year were from 59 and 61 yards. He's only 2/10 from that distance in his career; his max reliable range is about 56 yards. Statistically he is worse than "average" on kicks longer than that (but of course that average is inflated because only kickers who are more likely to make 57+ yard kicks typically attempt 57+ yard kicks).

Before looking at this data, I would've never guessed the cumulative success rate from 55-59 yards was over 50%. Even an exact 59 yard FG attempt is a 53% kick.

Notice how the percentage from 59 yards to 60 yards drops like a stone. That's chiefly a mental effect, one would think.

 

[-OZ-]

This chart just reinforces my belief that kickers in the NFL have gotten insanely good over the last 20 years.

Yep.
I still think punters have the best starting job in the NFL if not all of sports. Kickers come second only because the pressure can be huuuuge at times.

 

[ignatiusjreilly]

A "what length field goal could you kick" poll would be a good one

Based on past questions, there would need to be money involved: "How long a FG could you kick for $1M?" Because I guess the promise of money would send adrenalin rushing to our kicking legs

Give me a few months to train and I should be good from about 13 yards out.

IIRC the only time I've ever really tried was when I was in my early teens, maybe 13 or 14. Longest I could make -- with zero practice -- was from the goal line, so the actual distance was 10 yards but in football terms it was a zero-yard FG

If the line of scrimmage is the 1, the spot is at the 8 and they would call it an 18 yard FG.

Yes, you're right, the 10 yards of the end zone is factored into the distance, so the kick I was describing would be a 10-yarder. A zero-yard FG would be physically impossible, since you would have to kick the ball straight up in the air

 

[jabarony]

This chart just reinforces my belief that kickers in the NFL have gotten insanely good over the last 20 years.

Yep.
I still think punters have the best starting job in the NFL if not all of sports. Kickers come second only because the pressure can be huuuuge at times.

Long snapper would be a sweet gig.

 

[-OZ-]

This chart just reinforces my belief that kickers in the NFL have gotten insanely good over the last 20 years.

Yep.
I still think punters have the best starting job in the NFL if not all of sports. Kickers come second only because the pressure can be huuuuge at times.

Long snapper would be a sweet gig.

Yeah but you’re still on the OL and need to be a certain uncommon size. Kickers are more normal people.

 

[rockaction]

So you would wager $1 million of your net worth to get $1 million at 35 yards?

Leroy's Aces: There are so many problems with this premise I can't even begin.

I'm smiling because a) I had no idea there was an ante and b) if I ever have a net worth of over $1 million, you and I are drinking for free on me (and I don't drink anymore). I'll arrange your transportation and lodging, even.

Also, I would never bet on myself. In almost anything. No matter the stakes. I won't even play nickel slots at the casino down the street from me. And I can easily walk there to do so. (Yes, I kicked for a brief bit in college and happen to live in a suburban SoCal town that has a casino in it. A casino I almost never, never play at. These are not untruths.)

And if you staked me the million and offered the deal, I wouldn't risk it. I'd be the anti-Arians and pocket the biscuit instead of risk it.

But I can hit a thirty-five yarder most likely. The real question: but can I hit a thirty-five yarder with all the pressure on and the contest lights bright????

I don't know. I honestly don't.

Also, fellow kickers unite! We have nothing to lose but our millions!

 

[fightingillini]

just throwing this out there, the stats may be a bit skewed depending on how you're trying to use this data.

for example, the longer kicks (maybe 50+?) are only being attempted by kickers that have a higher success rate.

meaning, if you have a weak kicker, they are probably lining up with a less than 71% chance of making a 50 yard FG.

in other words, if you lined up every kicker in the NFL for a 50 yard kick, the percentage would likely go down.

Sure. I was trying to answer the simple question of how often a kicker makes it from ___ distance when they attempt it.

This came up when the 49ers missed a 41 yard field goal. And I wondered how often that happens.

Not often, but in Jake Moody's defense, that game was played in CLE in somewhat bad weather. Put Jake Moody (or any good NFL kicker) indoors.....41 yarder is pretty much an extra point.

I bet you would see material differences in made FG% when kicking indoors vs outdoors (and especially when in bad weather).

 

[amnesiac]

just throwing this out there, the stats may be a bit skewed depending on how you're trying to use this data.

for example, the longer kicks (maybe 50+?) are only being attempted by kickers that have a higher success rate.

meaning, if you have a weak kicker, they are probably lining up with a less than 71% chance of making a 50 yard FG.

in other words, if you lined up every kicker in the NFL for a 50 yard kick, the percentage would likely go down.

Sure. I was trying to answer the simple question of how often a kicker makes it from ___ distance when they attempt it.

This came up when the 49ers missed a 41 yard field goal. And I wondered how often that happens.

Not often, but in Jake Moody's defense, that game was played in CLE in somewhat bad weather. Put Jake Moody (or any good NFL kicker) indoors.....41 yarder is pretty much an extra point.

I bet you would see material differences in made FG% when kicking indoors vs outdoors (and especially when in bad weather).

especially in Browns stadium. it's almost always windy there, being right on the lake.

 

[da_budman]

A "what length field goal could you kick" poll would be a good one

Based on past questions, there would need to be money involved: "How long a FG could you kick for $1M?" Because I guess the promise of money would send adrenalin rushing to our kicking legs

Give me a few months to train and I should be good from about 13 yards out.

IIRC the only time I've ever really tried was when I was in my early teens, maybe 13 or 14. Longest I could make -- with zero practice -- was from the goal line, so the actual distance was 10 yards but in football terms it was a zero-yard FG

If the line of scrimmage is the 1, the spot is at the 8 and they would call it an 18 yard FG.

Yes, you're right, the 10 yards of the end zone is factored into the distance, so the kick I was describing would be a 10-yarder. A zero-yard FG would be physically impossible, since you would have to kick the ball straight up in the air

Yeah.....that and the ball would have to be spotted at the negative 10 yard line and kicked right at the line of scrimmage lol

 

[Tonycarpenter]

to rockaction: So you would wager $1 million of your net worth to get $1 million at 35 yards? If so, kudos to you. But I highly doubt you would. I made a 35 yarder easy at NFL draft weekend in Chicago a few years ago and kicked a bit in high school but would need like 3 to 1 to risk that amount on a single kick (even with weeks of training for it) but would love to try it at those odds.

They're not putting up money..>it's like a half court shot situation at NBA...If you make it you win the car... you don't lose your car if you miss. FWIW I'd make a 35yd... I'd even bet a $1M if necessary for the chance. I'm already $500k in debt so I got nothing to lose. What's an extra million? I kicked in 10th grade Hs and former soccer player. I assume this contest is sans defense. I can't have Leroy and his Aces snapping, holding or blocking for me... he's gonna let someone through the line etc. ALso... no timeouts. No icing. =)

 

[Tonycarpenter]

I think if you can make someone kick more than once there's 90%+ chance of injury. All these Arm Chair Kickers.... I think there's a 91% chance of injury by a least the 2nd kick. 1st kick.... yeah you can do it... but you're not going to unload everything. You know you're old. So it's... Mechanics. Snap 1, 2 and thru. ....Then, you feel like, hey that wasn't so bad. 30+ years later I still got it...ya know...I wonder if I could back it up a little bit....Boom you unload a line drive pulling your quad, probably straining your groin. Turns out you probably had tightness in the first kick but didn't quite feel it. Also, your leg speed isn't quite what it was. Your tendons and ligaments are hard like salt water taffy on cold day.

 

[Ignoratio Elenchi]

Before looking at this data, I would've never guessed the cumulative success rate from 55-59 yards was over 50%. Even an exact 59 yard FG attempt is a 53% kick.

Yeah but again, that's the sampling bias - if you lined up every kicker in the NFL and had them kick 59 yarders, the success rate would presumably be much lower than 50%.