How "Old" Is Michael Turner? (1 Viewer)

[Mr. Nice Guy]

Michael Turner is 29 years old and will be turning 30 next February.

But how old is he really in terms of the life of a back?

Being under LT for all those years kept his tread low. His history of carries is:

2004 = 20

2005 = 57

2006 = 80

2007 = 71

2008 = 377

2009 = 178

2010 = 334

Over the last 3 years thats 889 carries.

Matt Forte has had:

2008 = 315

2009 = 258

2010 = 237

That totals 810 carries.

Mendenhall has had 566 carries over the past 2 seasons.

Forte is 25. Mendenhall is 24. You could also look at the carries of A.P. or Mojo or Chris Johnson.

So my question is, how do you actually guage the age of a runnning back? Is Turner going to be a Fred Jackson that keeps producing into his 30s? Or how much tread does he have left on his tires?

What type of trades would you entertain for Turner because of his age? What is his worth?

Thanks!

 

[rzrback77]

Based on usage, Michael Turner has young legs. However thirty year old legs are still 30 years old regardless of the number of carries. In addition, Turner is a heavier RB and I believe that those type RBs generally wear down quicker with age.

Even saying all of this, I believe that Turner could have an outstanding 2011 season, but I would not want to counting on him for dynasty after this year. I think that 2012 will be a major drop for him in effectiveness.

 

[mrip541]

What # of carries should be added to account for Turner needing to haul that gut around?

 

[adrenaline]

Fred Jackson hasn't kept producing into his 30s. IMO age is a lot more important than carries.

 

[Terpman22]

What # of carries should be added to account for Turner needing to haul that gut around?

at least 20...lol. I think Turner will wear down in the next year or two, and when he does, it will be fast. Like stated before, the big guys run down quicker, especially if they have a few seasons with 350+ carries. Eddie George, Jerome Bettis and the like just fell flat, but the silver lining is they can still get 10+ td's a season later in their careers. Its just so hard, b/c guys like Tiki, Curtis Martin were doing it well into their 30's. Considering the team he is on, I do believe he will have a great season this year, and will be on pace for another one next year and will tear an acl mid-late 2012, they draft a replacement high and its bye bye Mike.

 

[eakfootball]

Turner still went to practice and ran everyday, age is much more important than carries.

 

[TheDirtyWord]

Fred Jackson hasn't kept producing into his 30s. IMO age is a lot more important than carries.

1) Jackson turned 30 in Feb.2) Once the Bills stopped fartin' around with Lynch and traded him, Jackson produced at a 88 YFS/game & .5 TD/game pace which was commiserate with his 2009 career year pace.As for Turner, while age seems to creep up on RB's suddenly, I'd be surprised if this were the year for Turner.

 

[Warhogs]

I think this is much tougher to guess than what some people posting in this thread make it seem. Many people are calling for Turner to wear down soon and start making comparisons to Eddie George and Jerome Bettis but there is a huge difference. Those guys say a high amount of carries for several years. Turner has only had a high amount of carries twice (2008 & 2010).

I don't think he is that worn down and could still have 3 or 4 very productive seasons. With any player there is risk of a sharp decline but I think presently perception of Turner wearing down is so high that he may be a real value at this time.

I'm not sure if there are many good examples of a RB of Turner's style to compare him to if you are trying to take a historical approach to speculate how close he is to wearing down. I can't really think of a 29 year old bruiser who only had 2 years of heavy use to compare Turner to.

 

[mlball77]

Turner still went to practice and ran everyday, age is much more important than carries.

 

[Unwrittenlaw]

I think this is much tougher to guess than what some people posting in this thread make it seem. Many people are calling for Turner to wear down soon and start making comparisons to Eddie George and Jerome Bettis but there is a huge difference. Those guys say a high amount of carries for several years. Turner has only had a high amount of carries twice (2008 & 2010).I don't think he is that worn down and could still have 3 or 4 very productive seasons. With any player there is risk of a sharp decline but I think presently perception of Turner wearing down is so high that he may be a real value at this time.I'm not sure if there are many good examples of a RB of Turner's style to compare him to if you are trying to take a historical approach to speculate how close he is to wearing down. I can't really think of a 29 year old bruiser who only had 2 years of heavy use to compare Turner to.

Larry Johnson was only 27 when he had his 410+ carry season. That's what killed his career.

 

[TheDirtyWord]

I think this is much tougher to guess than what some people posting in this thread make it seem. Many people are calling for Turner to wear down soon and start making comparisons to Eddie George and Jerome Bettis but there is a huge difference. Those guys say a high amount of carries for several years. Turner has only had a high amount of carries twice (2008 & 2010).I don't think he is that worn down and could still have 3 or 4 very productive seasons. With any player there is risk of a sharp decline but I think presently perception of Turner wearing down is so high that he may be a real value at this time.I'm not sure if there are many good examples of a RB of Turner's style to compare him to if you are trying to take a historical approach to speculate how close he is to wearing down. I can't really think of a 29 year old bruiser who only had 2 years of heavy use to compare Turner to.

Larry Johnson was only 27 when he had his 410+ carry season. That's what killed his career.

What killed his career was that he was a collosal jackwagon.

 

[SayWhat?]

I think this is much tougher to guess than what some people posting in this thread make it seem. Many people are calling for Turner to wear down soon and start making comparisons to Eddie George and Jerome Bettis but there is a huge difference. Those guys say a high amount of carries for several years. Turner has only had a high amount of carries twice (2008 & 2010).I don't think he is that worn down and could still have 3 or 4 very productive seasons. With any player there is risk of a sharp decline but I think presently perception of Turner wearing down is so high that he may be a real value at this time.I'm not sure if there are many good examples of a RB of Turner's style to compare him to if you are trying to take a historical approach to speculate how close he is to wearing down. I can't really think of a 29 year old bruiser who only had 2 years of heavy use to compare Turner to.

Larry Johnson was only 27 when he had his 410+ carry season. That's what killed his career.

Or maybe he let his two years of success get to his head and stopped working as hard in the offseason, took his job less seriously, didn't watch film as much, etc. Saying that a 410 carry season is what killed his career is sheer speculation.

 

[adrenaline]

Fred Jackson hasn't kept producing into his 30s. IMO age is a lot more important than carries.

1) Jackson turned 30 in Feb.2) Once the Bills stopped fartin' around with Lynch and traded him, Jackson produced at a 88 YFS/game & .5 TD/game pace which was commiserate with his 2009 career year pace.

As for Turner, while age seems to creep up on RB's suddenly, I'd be surprised if this were the year for Turner.

Was this after Jackson turned 30 in Febuary? To say Fred has played well in his 30s when the last time he played he was 29 is incorrect.

 

[finito]

Fred Jackson hasn't kept producing into his 30s. IMO age is a lot more important than carries.

1) Jackson turned 30 in Feb.2) Once the Bills stopped fartin' around with Lynch and traded him, Jackson produced at a 88 YFS/game & .5 TD/game pace which was commiserate with his 2009 career year pace.

As for Turner, while age seems to creep up on RB's suddenly, I'd be surprised if this were the year for Turner.

Was this after Jackson turned 30 in Febuary? To say Fred has played well in his 30s when the last time he played he was 29 is incorrect.

Why would you even bring Jackson up as an example as someone who hasn't produced into his 30's in the first place? It makes no sense to me.

 

[adrenaline]

Fred Jackson hasn't kept producing into his 30s. IMO age is a lot more important than carries.

1) Jackson turned 30 in Feb.2) Once the Bills stopped fartin' around with Lynch and traded him, Jackson produced at a 88 YFS/game & .5 TD/game pace which was commiserate with his 2009 career year pace.

As for Turner, while age seems to creep up on RB's suddenly, I'd be surprised if this were the year for Turner.

Was this after Jackson turned 30 in Febuary? To say Fred has played well in his 30s when the last time he played he was 29 is incorrect.

Why would you even bring Jackson up as an example as someone who hasn't produced into his 30's in the first place? It makes no sense to me.

Why you would comment on replies without reading the original post is the part that makes no sense.

 

[bengalbuck]

I know this may seem simplistic, but I think you really need to use the "eye test" on RBs because I don't think there's a hard and fast rule about age or number of carries that is universally applicable.

Personally, it looks to me like Michael Turner has lost a step. He's not the 4.3 guy he was early in his career and he doesn't look as explosive as he did his first year with the Falcons. With his build, I think he'll still be effective for a couple more years, especially down around the goal line, but I think his days of breaking off long runs are probably behind him.

 

[finito]

Fred Jackson hasn't kept producing into his 30s. IMO age is a lot more important than carries.

1) Jackson turned 30 in Feb.2) Once the Bills stopped fartin' around with Lynch and traded him, Jackson produced at a 88 YFS/game & .5 TD/game pace which was commiserate with his 2009 career year pace.

As for Turner, while age seems to creep up on RB's suddenly, I'd be surprised if this were the year for Turner.

Was this after Jackson turned 30 in Febuary? To say Fred has played well in his 30s when the last time he played he was 29 is incorrect.

Why would you even bring Jackson up as an example as someone who hasn't produced into his 30's in the first place? It makes no sense to me.

Why you would comment on replies without reading the original post is the part that makes no sense.

Whoops. Lol. I do think Turner is already showing signs of slowing down. He didn't look that great toward the end of the season.

 

[UnknownCoach]

Age is a significantly bigger factor IMO than career carries. Body type and running style are also important to wear and tear. Injuries even more so but the full diagnosis of an individual's injury isnt really public information. Game day is only a fraction of the wear an athlete puts on his body. The one thing that affects everybody regardless of anything else is age. Genes could cause a player's body to age slower or quicker but they all age. George Foreman might have won a boxing title as an old man but even a 1 year old can see the huge differences between the old man and the young man in the ring. Unlike the other numbers, age is a true indicator that isnt affected by a player's teammates, coaches, or other variables. Its just the player's age. Its a fact of life that the older we get past adulthood, the slower our cells grow, the more brittle we become, and the longer it takes us to recover from injuries and fatigue. Why try to put a spin on age when age is the most true number about a player? Better to factor everything else including wear and tear seperately.

 

[moderated]

Age is a significantly bigger factor IMO than career carries. Body type and running style are also important to wear and tear. Injuries even more so but the full diagnosis of an individual's injury isnt really public information. Game day is only a fraction of the wear an athlete puts on his body. The one thing that affects everybody regardless of anything else is age. Genes could cause a player's body to age slower or quicker but they all age. George Foreman might have won a boxing title as an old man but even a 1 year old can see the huge differences between the old man and the young man in the ring. Unlike the other numbers, age is a true indicator that isnt affected by a player's teammates, coaches, or other variables. Its just the player's age. Its a fact of life that the older we get past adulthood, the slower our cells grow, the more brittle we become, and the longer it takes us to recover from injuries and fatigue. Why try to put a spin on age when age is the most true number about a player? Better to factor everything else including wear and tear seperately.

Turner is as old as any other 29 yr old rb's. His slowdown was apparent watching him last season.

 

[Clifford]

I know this may seem simplistic, but I think you really need to use the "eye test" on RBs because I don't think there's a hard and fast rule about age or number of carries that is universally applicable.Personally, it looks to me like Michael Turner has lost a step. He's not the 4.3 guy he was early in his career and he doesn't look as explosive as he did his first year with the Falcons. With his build, I think he'll still be effective for a couple more years, especially down around the goal line, but I think his days of breaking off long runs are probably behind him.

Dynasty owner and I couldn't agree more. I am hoping to have a replacement starter by week 10.

 

[CalBear]

I think this is much tougher to guess than what some people posting in this thread make it seem. Many people are calling for Turner to wear down soon and start making comparisons to Eddie George and Jerome Bettis but there is a huge difference. Those guys say a high amount of carries for several years. Turner has only had a high amount of carries twice (2008 & 2010).I don't think he is that worn down and could still have 3 or 4 very productive seasons. With any player there is risk of a sharp decline but I think presently perception of Turner wearing down is so high that he may be a real value at this time.I'm not sure if there are many good examples of a RB of Turner's style to compare him to if you are trying to take a historical approach to speculate how close he is to wearing down. I can't really think of a 29 year old bruiser who only had 2 years of heavy use to compare Turner to.

Larry Johnson was only 27 when he had his 410+ carry season. That's what killed his career.

I think you'll have a really hard time proving that someone who, in game 16, carried 33 times for 138 yards (4.18 average) and 3 TDs against the #2 ranked defense in the league, was somehow ruined for a game eight months later. He was healthy at the end of 2006; any injuries he suffered during 2007 were due to activity in 2007, not 2006.

 

[Sudoku_in_the_Bathtub]

I think being on the Falcons keeps him with big TD #'s the next 2 years.

That said, I love Quizz Rodgers. Was my 2nd favorite back in the draft class. Thought the Falcons got away with robbery selecting him where they did. Behind Snelling at this point, but I think the guy is much much more than a 3rd down back if/when the opportunity comes.

 

[FreeBaGeL]

Age is a significantly bigger factor IMO than career carries.

And even beyond this, has there every been ANY study that shows ANY correlation between workload and age of breaking down? It seems like all we've got are a couple of anecdotal players which, as we all know, you can use to "prove" anything in fantasy football.And "anything" includes the opposite of this theory. Two of the players that played best into their 30's were Curtis Martin and Emmitt Smith, both of whom had monstrous workloads for their entire career. Likewise, we've seen a gajillion examples of guys who didn't start getting carries until later in their career break down early.

 

[Sinrman]

Once you hit the 30's, your body is a-changin'. Doesn't matter if you have a lot of wear or tear or not. Maybe when he hits 30, he's

playing like he's 28 or 29, but I doubt it's far off. Barring injury, however, I could see him playing until 32, 33. Will he have

great production at that point? I doubt it. But he should have another 2-3 good years left in him.

 

[domvin]

Turner still went to practice and ran everyday, age is much more important than carries.

Have to agree here.Turner is a 2 down back now. Have to factor that into the equation as well.Look at how they used snelling last year.......They have longed toincorporate a pass catching back, ie, norwood, and now the drafting of quizz. Turners body is breaking down already. He looks lethargic when he runs the ball now......have to think is end is near.

 

[Dinsy Ejotuz]

Age is a significantly bigger factor IMO than career carries.

And even beyond this, has there every been ANY study that shows ANY correlation between workload and age of breaking down? It seems like all we've got are a couple of anecdotal players which, as we all know, you can use to "prove" anything in fantasy football.

IIRC Doug Drinen took a look at this at PFR a few years ago and found that roughly 800 carries was equal to a year of normal aging. But it was a weak finding - i.e. not definitive.

 

[Sabertooth]

No way to predict because we don't know all or even most of the variables involves such as genetics, diet, regimen, luck, drive, etc...

But evidence suggests he's going to break down in one of the next few seasons. Some guys are anomalies. I'd argue most guys are anomalies to even make it to the NFL. But who can buck the trends is anyone's guess. All things being considered, I devalue him some. But he's more likely to hit a wall than bog down so if you have his backup in place, that may salvage your season.

 

[David Yudkin]

I'm 44 and have 0 NFL carries, so do I have more tread left on my tires?

Look, things are not black or white but always some shade of gray. He's on the stouter side and one would think that would mean he would be slower to begin with. Yet until last year, he had never had a season with a ypc under 4.5.

At this point, depending upon how the CBA and free agency shapes up, he may not have a ton of challenges for carries. He's scored the 2nd most rushing TDs over the past 3 years (one fewer than ADP).

I will say this, though, on that last list. Things change quickly in the NFL, and who knows if it really says a heck of a lot . . .

Rushing TDs 2008-2010:

1 Adrian Peterson 40

2 Michael Turner 39

3 Chris Johnson 34

4 Thomas Jones 33

5 Maurice Jones-Drew 32

6 Brandon Jacobs 29

6 LaDainian Tomlinson 29

8 DeAngelo Williams 26

9 Willis McGahee 24

10 Ronnie Brown 23

10 Tim Hightower 23

12 Jonathan Stewart 22

13 Rashard Mendenhall 20

14 Joseph Addai 19

14 Arian Foster 19

14 Frank Gore 19

17 Marion Barber 18

17 Matt Forte 18

17 BenJarvus Green-Ellis 18

20 Peyton Hillis 17

20 Steven Jackson 17

20 Pierre Thomas 17

20 LenDale White 17

20 Ricky Williams 17

There quite a few backs on that list that may not even have much of a role this year.

As far as Turner goes, he has three years left on his contract. I would think he would still be productive for at least the first two of them.

 

[Mark Wimer]

Turner plays on an improving offense, with a stud QB just now entering the prime of his career. With Julio Jones on the team (he is a good run blocker as well as a better receiver than Michael Jenkins), and with Jacquizz Rodgers around to handle third-down situations, I think that Turner will be solidly productive for at least the next two years. He's downgraded a bit in PPR leagues, but remember that last year he had 20 targets for 12/85/0 receiving (that was the first time he's seen double-digit targets or double-digit receptions in his career). I think he could easily see 30-35 targets this year and approach 20 receptions, so he'll have some added value in PPR, too.

Bottom line: he's a 2-down workhorse who should easily maintain a 20+ carry pace most weeks (averaged 20.8 per game last year) - that's a "featured" back in the current RBBC NFL.

 

[Yenrub]

I'm 44 and have 0 NFL carries, so do I have more tread left on my tires?

Did you ever posses the talent to be a starting NFL RB?

 

[David Yudkin]

I'm 44 and have 0 NFL carries, so do I have more tread left on my tires?

Did you ever posses the talent to be a starting NFL RB?

The talent thing is pretty much the point. Either guys have the talent, speed, and skills to play RB or they don't. I don't think "mileage" or "tread life" really enters the equation.If we look at the older players that continued to play well into their 30s, they were guys that still had the ability to play at a high level.Turner has performed very well so far, and if he continues to do so he will continue to play and get the football. At the moment, it does not appear that there is a challenger to take away touches (but given the labor situation who knows if that will change). Put another way, in redraft leagues, I would not avoid drafting him because he is 29 and had a slightly off year by his standards.

 

[JKL]

I wrote about this a couple of months ago--Michael Turner and Age vs. Mileage for a Running Back

 

[De Novo]

I don't think he is that worn down and could still have 3 or 4 very productive seasons.

I'd take the other side of this and laugh all the way to the bank. Did you watch him last year? He is noticeably slower. His YPC is on the decline. He is 29. He plays on turf. He has a history of ankle injuries. Very few running backs make it to 33. Even fewer are productive.

 

[moderated]

I don't think he is that worn down and could still have 3 or 4 very productive seasons.

I'd take the other side of this and laugh all the way to the bank. Did you watch him last year? He is noticeably slower. His YPC is on the decline. He is 29. He plays on turf. He has a history of ankle injuries. Very few running backs make it to 33. Even fewer are productive.

No way he has "3 or 4" more very productive seasons.

 

[msommer]

Priest Holmes

Thomas Jones

Michael Turner?

 

[Shutout]

I know this may seem simplistic, but I think you really need to use the "eye test" on RBs because I don't think there's a hard and fast rule about age or number of carries that is universally applicable.Personally, it looks to me like Michael Turner has lost a step. He's not the 4.3 guy he was early in his career and he doesn't look as explosive as he did his first year with the Falcons. With his build, I think he'll still be effective for a couple more years, especially down around the goal line, but I think his days of breaking off long runs are probably behind him.

Owned him for the past few years and, to me, its apparent: the EYE BALL test tells me that what once made him great has quickly eroded. We all know he doesn't catch passes so he needs yards and TDs to be great (simple enough, huh?). Well, the thing that put him into the next category was how he would rip off the big chunk yardage and, by the end fo the game, would end up with 140+ yards WITH the TDs. He's still going to be a TD threat but there were very few games last year I watched him where I thought "he is in the flow to end up with 120+. These days he has all the looks of a 17 for 77 kind of guy. Does that sound pitiful? Yeah. It is..But..that's also IF he averages 4.5 yards a carry (lofty expectations??). But that also has him right at 300 carries on a year. So either way you look at it, he is either an older back getting too much run or he is underperforming. So I sold him and I think he is a top high-teen RB (a better version of what we might expect from Brandon jacobs at this point).

 

[-jb-]

I know this may seem simplistic, but I think you really need to use the "eye test" on RBs because I don't think there's a hard and fast rule about age or number of carries that is universally applicable.Personally, it looks to me like Michael Turner has lost a step. He's not the 4.3 guy he was early in his career and he doesn't look as explosive as he did his first year with the Falcons. With his build, I think he'll still be effective for a couple more years, especially down around the goal line, but I think his days of breaking off long runs are probably behind him.

Owned him for the past few years and, to me, its apparent: the EYE BALL test tells me that what once made him great has quickly eroded. We all know he doesn't catch passes so he needs yards and TDs to be great (simple enough, huh?). Well, the thing that put him into the next category was how he would rip off the big chunk yardage and, by the end fo the game, would end up with 140+ yards WITH the TDs. He's still going to be a TD threat but there were very few games last year I watched him where I thought "he is in the flow to end up with 120+. These days he has all the looks of a 17 for 77 kind of guy. Does that sound pitiful? Yeah. It is..But..that's also IF he averages 4.5 yards a carry (lofty expectations??). But that also has him right at 300 carries on a year. So either way you look at it, he is either an older back getting too much run or he is underperforming. So I sold him and I think he is a top high-teen RB (a better version of what we might expect from Brandon jacobs at this point).

This sums it up really well. I was fired up to draft Turner in a redraft last year, and it was very disappointing watching him all year. Unless he's there in the late third, he won't be on my roster this year.

 

[UnknownCoach]

The reason Turner got 376 carries in 2008 is because Matt Ryan was a rookie. Now Ryan is a franchise QB with White, Jones, and Gonzalez to throw to. Turner isnt involved in the passing game and anybody who thinks he's going to get that many carries again needs their head examined. He will still cleanup on rushing TDs but doesnt add any receiving like most backs do. Now he's 29 and the Falcons will want him healthy for the playoffs. So dont count on Turner being the guy chewing up yards when the Falcons have a big lead late in games either.

Odds are, you'll be lucky if Turner repeats his 2010 performance.

 

[Dr. Octopus]

These days he has all the looks of a 17 for 77 kind of guy. Does that sound pitiful?

No, that sounds like 1,232 yards on the season - with likely around 10-14 TDs.He's definately no longer elite, but should still be productive for at least one more season. I agree with most of what you said though (that I left out), he isn't the same back. I do think you can add 2-4 more carries to that projection most weeks though. Expect a solid, but unspectacular year and obviously downgrade him in ppr leagues.

 

[Carolina Hustler]

I think this is much tougher to guess than what some people posting in this thread make it seem. Many people are calling for Turner to wear down soon and start making comparisons to Eddie George and Jerome Bettis but there is a huge difference. Those guys say a high amount of carries for several years. Turner has only had a high amount of carries twice (2008 & 2010).I don't think he is that worn down and could still have 3 or 4 very productive seasons. With any player there is risk of a sharp decline but I think presently perception of Turner wearing down is so high that he may be a real value at this time.I'm not sure if there are many good examples of a RB of Turner's style to compare him to if you are trying to take a historical approach to speculate how close he is to wearing down. I can't really think of a 29 year old bruiser who only had 2 years of heavy use to compare Turner to.

Larry Johnson was only 27 when he had his 410+ carry season. That's what killed his career.

What killed his career was that he was a collosal jackwagon.

 

[baconisgood]

I wrote about this a couple of months ago--Michael Turner and Age vs. Mileage for a Running Back

This is very well done overall- but one mistake is here

(1) he’s a big back; (2) he’s not involved in the passing game at all; (3) he’s reliant on lots of carries and touchdowns to hold his value. From this Football Outsiders article, a drop in reception numbers is often an indicator that a back is about to decline. . . He had a league leading 334 rushes, but only 12 catches all season for 85 yards.

The FO article references a DROP in receiving- while those 12 receptions for Turner are a career high. This weakens your case a little- but I think the comparisons to other high carry- low reception - backs are very worthwhile.

 

[De Novo]

These days he has all the looks of a 17 for 77 kind of guy. Does that sound pitiful?

No, that sounds like 1,232 yards on the season - with likely around 10-14 TDs.He's definately no longer elite, but should still be productive for at least one more season. I agree with most of what you said though (that I left out), he isn't the same back. I do think you can add 2-4 more carries to that projection most weeks though. Expect a solid, but unspectacular year and obviously downgrade him in ppr leagues.

I doubt he averages the 4.5 ypc needed to be a "17 for 77" guy. I think he's more of an 18 for 68 guy.