How to choose a kicker (1 Viewer)

[JohnnyU]

While posting in my other thread about my 2007 sleepers I posted a comment about kickers that I think need some discussion. I don't have the numbers to back it up, but here is the post and my response.

"With kickers, it is a very hard question. Do I go with the explosive offense and count my extra points, or do I go with a kicker on a team with a very good defense and a decent offense, but not explosive? I tend to lean toward teams with a good defense and decent offense (especially running game), who will leave my kicker with a lot of chances. Most of those chances are within the 40-50 yd range also."

 

[whodeywhodey]

I go for the kicker in the better offense. Could care less about the defense.

 

[shadyridr]

While posting in my other thread about my 2007 sleepers I posted a comment about kickers that I think need some discussion. I don't have the numbers to back it up, but here is the post and my response."With kickers, it is a very hard question. Do I go with the explosive offense and count my extra points, or do I go with a kicker on a team with a very good defense and a decent offense, but not explosive? I tend to lean toward teams with a good defense and decent offense (especially running game), who will leave my kicker with a lot of chances. Most of those chances are within the 40-50 yd range also."

Clearly the former is better for kickers cuz an explosive offense gets to the red zone more often and therefore more opportunities for kicking pts.

 

[JohnnyU]

I go for the kicker in the better offense. Could care less about the defense.

OK, that's one opinion. How good was Chicago's offense last year? Robbie Gould was money. What about the year before? Neil Rackers in 2005, and the year before that? Adam Vinateiri. It's not like NE was an explosive offense in 2004.Edited to say that Rackers in 2005 didn't have a great defense or a great offense. Is that a fluke? or is is impossible to pick kickers? Did he just have one of those years where he didn't miss anything?

 

[avoiding injuries]

Which ever kicker is available at my last pick with the best offense.

 

[shadyridr]

I go for the kicker in the better offense. Could care less about the defense.

OK, that's one opinion. How good was Chicago's offense last year? Robbie Gould was money. What about the year before? Neil Rackers in 2005, and the year before that? Adam Vinateiri. It's not like NE was an explosive offense in 2004.Edited to say that Rackers in 2005 didn't have a great defense or a great offense. Is that a fluke? or is is impossible to pick kickers? Did he just have one of those years where he didn't miss anything?

Chicago was a top 5 offense last year in the 1st half of the season. Then they started a decline and so did Gould. Rackers was in a high powered passing offense but since they had no running game they often stalled in the red zone. And Im pretty sure NE was top 10 in 2004 although I could be wrong.

 

[JohnnyU]

While posting in my other thread about my 2007 sleepers I posted a comment about kickers that I think need some discussion. I don't have the numbers to back it up, but here is the post and my response."With kickers, it is a very hard question. Do I go with the explosive offense and count my extra points, or do I go with a kicker on a team with a very good defense and a decent offense, but not explosive? I tend to lean toward teams with a good defense and decent offense (especially running game), who will leave my kicker with a lot of chances. Most of those chances are within the 40-50 yd range also."

Clearly the former is better for kickers cuz an explosive offense gets to the red zone more often and therefore more opportunities for kicking pts.

What are the stats for the kicker for a top rated offense over the last decade vs the kicker for the top rated defense over the last decade? Now if someone can come up with these stats we can put this to bed.

 

[JohnnyU]

I go for the kicker in the better offense. Could care less about the defense.

OK, that's one opinion. How good was Chicago's offense last year? Robbie Gould was money. What about the year before? Neil Rackers in 2005, and the year before that? Adam Vinateiri. It's not like NE was an explosive offense in 2004.Edited to say that Rackers in 2005 didn't have a great defense or a great offense. Is that a fluke? or is is impossible to pick kickers? Did he just have one of those years where he didn't miss anything?

Chicago was a top 5 offense last year in the 1st half of the season. Then they started a decline and so did Gould. Rackers was in a high powered passing offense but since they had no running game they often stalled in the red zone. And Im pretty sure NE was top 10 in 2004 although I could be wrong.

So, could we attribute top kickers to bad running games, but decent overall offense?

 

[shadyridr]

Bro, about 5 people gave you the answer yet you keep asking the same question. Good offense on a good team usually mean top 10 kicker.

 

[SOmojo]

Average out the rankings from as many sites as possible, and take the best available kicker in the last couple rounds of your draft

 

[JohnnyU]

Bro, about 5 people gave you the answer yet you keep asking the same question. Good offense on a good team usually mean top 10 kicker.

Hey, I see it differently. Chicago didn't rank in the top 5 in total offense, passing, or rushing, yet they had the best kicker. They did however have a pretty good defense. The Bears ranked 15th in rushing in 2006, 15 in receiving, and 14 in passing. Is that a great offense?

 

[-OZ-]

Just looking at facts

Top 3 PKs (depends on scoring, but these are from my main league) and their team's ranking

2006:

Gould - 2nd most points scored, 3rd least allowed

Kaeding - 3rd scored, 7th least allowed

Wilkins - 10th, 28th

2005:

Rackers - 17th, 26th;

Feeley - 3rd, 14th;

Graham - 4th, 22nd

Don't really see a trend here for offense, especially as the top scoring offense includes the PK himself.

Looks like you want a bad Defense (4/6 times)

2006:

Gould - average passing, average running

Kaeding - solid passing, great running

Wilkins - great passing, decent running

2005:

Rackers - top passing offense, worst running

Feeley - average passing offense, good running

Graham - good passing, good running

2006, looks like good offenses made better PKs.

2005 indicates a team that fizzles out in the red zone would rack up kicker points. Makes intuitive sense, but IIRC, this doesn't pan out through the years.

FWIW, if you look at the top 3 PKs from 2003-6, you have 10 different PKs. Only Graham and Wilkins repeat.

 

[JohnnyU]

Not to mention that Gould didn't play in a top 14 offense in any category last year, but he's a COLD WEATHER KICKER!!!!

 

[TitusIII]

Not to mention that Gould didn't play in a top 14 offense in any category last year, but he's a COLD WEATHER KICKER!!!!

The stats are a bit skewed due to Chicago's defense/special teams. Hard to pile up yards when you get excellent field position throughout the game. Nevertheless, I usually draw a name out of a hat, and plan on hitting the waiver wire around week 5. Hope that helps...

 

[whodeywhodey]

JohnnyU - You are wrong here. Just open your eyes and don't be so stubborn and improve your kicker position.

Take a look at the top 10 ranked PKs on FBGs. How many of them are in good offenses?

1. Vinatieri - YES

2. Graham - YES

3. Wilkins - YES

4. Kaeding - YES

5. Elam - YES

6. Gostkowski - YES

7. Gould - Debatable

8. Akers - YES

9. Brown - YES

10. Stover - Debatable

 

[JohnnyU]

JohnnyU - You are wrong here. Just open your eyes and don't be so stubborn and improve your kicker position.Take a look at the top 10 ranked PKs on FBGs. How many of them are in good offenses?1. Vinatieri - YES2. Graham - YES3. Wilkins - YES4. Kaeding - YES5. Elam - YES6. Gostkowski - YES7. Gould - Debatable8. Akers - YES9. Brown - YES10. Stover - Debatable

LOL, I'm not trying to justify rankings based upon the norm. I'm questioning those norms. It seems to me that a great defense with a great running game and a suspect QB is best for kickers than an overall great offense.

 

[whodeywhodey]

JohnnyU - You are wrong here. Just open your eyes and don't be so stubborn and improve your kicker position.Take a look at the top 10 ranked PKs on FBGs. How many of them are in good offenses?1. Vinatieri - YES2. Graham - YES3. Wilkins - YES4. Kaeding - YES5. Elam - YES6. Gostkowski - YES7. Gould - Debatable8. Akers - YES9. Brown - YES10. Stover - Debatable

LOL, I'm not trying to justify rankings based upon the norm. I'm questioning those norms. It seems to me that a great defense with a great running game and a suspect QB is best for kickers than an overall great offense.

Good God.Where is that beating the horse icon when I need it.

 

[JohnnyU]

JohnnyU - You are wrong here. Just open your eyes and don't be so stubborn and improve your kicker position.Take a look at the top 10 ranked PKs on FBGs. How many of them are in good offenses?1. Vinatieri - YES2. Graham - YES3. Wilkins - YES4. Kaeding - YES5. Elam - YES6. Gostkowski - YES7. Gould - Debatable8. Akers - YES9. Brown - YES10. Stover - Debatable

LOL, I'm not trying to justify rankings based upon the norm. I'm questioning those norms. It seems to me that a great defense with a great running game and a suspect QB is best for kickers than an overall great offense.

Good God.Where is that beating the horse icon when I need it.

What is your take on it rather than wanting to use the :beatthehorseicon:?

 

[Dirty Weasel]

After crunching all sorts of stats over a 5-year span, the only category that seems to have any real pattern is offensive points scored. From 2002-2006, the top 5 kickers have come from a top 10 offense 80% of the time (20 out of 25). As for top 10 defenses, that number drops down to 56% (14 out of 25). Here is another way to break down the top 5 kickers over the last 5 years:

Top 10 offense and top 10 defense - 10 out of 25 - 40%

Top 10 offense and not top 10 defense - 10 out of 25 - 40%

Not top 10 offense and top 10 defense - 4 out of 25 - 16%

Not top 10 offense and not top 10 defense - 1 out of 25 - 4%

To me, this suggests a top offensive scoring team will yield the better scoring kickers, without regard for that team's defense. Only 1 kicker in each of the last 5 years has come from a team that was not top 10 in scoring.

BTW, I also crunched stats for rushing and receiving, both offensively and defensively, and they yielded no significant pattern. Now, the question becomes, which teams are going to be in the top 10 in scoring in 2007?

 

[Jeff Pasquino]

Kickology down?

 

[GridironMenace]

Who cares, it's a kicker.

 

[JohnnyU]

Who cares, it's a kicker.

Well, hell, maybe you're right.

 

[GridironMenace]

Who cares, it's a kicker.

Well, hell, maybe you're right.

 

[JohnnyU]

Who cares, it's a kicker.

Well, hell, maybe you're right.

 

[Jeff Tefertiller]

I like grabbing the kicker with the most vowels ....

:avoidingnickfolkavoidingnickfolk:

 

[Jeff Pasquino]

I like grabbing the kicker with the most vowels ....:avoidingnickfolkavoidingnickfolk:

:folkyou:

 

[King of the Wolfies]

I use the old fashioned approach.

einie meenie minie mooooooooooooooo

pick a kicker by the toe

 

[joey]

Kickology down?

Wow. 27 pages about kickers. I never would've thought it was possible.I'll just average the FBG projections and assume that 27 pages of research

led to some good rankings.

If not, I'm on the waiver wire by week 4 or 5 anyway.

 

[az_prof]

While posting in my other thread about my 2007 sleepers I posted a comment about kickers that I think need some discussion. I don't have the numbers to back it up, but here is the post and my response."With kickers, it is a very hard question. Do I go with the explosive offense and count my extra points, or do I go with a kicker on a team with a very good defense and a decent offense, but not explosive? I tend to lean toward teams with a good defense and decent offense (especially running game), who will leave my kicker with a lot of chances. Most of those chances are within the 40-50 yd range also."

Easy: wait until the last round and then pick the guy who is on an offense that you think will do the best of those who are left. Last year I got Kaeding that way. If it doesn't work out you can get someone better off waivers after a couple of weeks no problem.

 

[menobrown]

When it's time to pick a kicker I like to look for a kicker on a team that I would predict to be poor in the red zone which usually means a team that lacks a good running game.

If you can get a kicker from a team with a good defense which leads to a shorter field, good passing game which enables that team to move the ball and a poor power running game which often leads to poor red zone efficiency you probably found a good kicker. Whoever wins the GB kicking job will meet this criteria.

 

[Block]

One thing that I look for in a kicker is a late bye. Since I only keep one, I find that it is better to not have to worry about that spot until later in the season, when I know where I stand and the depth on waivers isn't as deep.

 

[Jeff Pasquino]

Pickin' Some Kickin'

 

[LoneWolf]

Pickin' Some Kickin'

Too Cruel. Olindo Mare (NOS)

 

[SSOG]

Just pick Jason Elam. He's the only guy we know is going to finish this season in the top 10.

 

[Mystery Achiever]

I took Stover in all three leagues because:

-- he's consistent

-- he's accurate -- two leagues subtract a poit for missed fg

-- his bye isn't tiil week 8, so don't need to free up a spot for a fill-in til then

 

[flufhed]

Just pick Jason Elam. He's the only guy we know is going to finish this season in the top 10.

:elamowner:

 

[GoBears84]

Just pick Jason Elam. He's the only guy we know is going to finish this season in the top 10.

:elamowner:

I think the key is to look at who is hot after week 3/4. I haven't looked into it as deep as I had hoped, but it appears as though each year a couple of low ranked kickers spring out of the block and they continue to perform well all season long. I'll try to post the data I have from the past three seasons later...

 

[GDogg]

After reading the kickology article, Jason Hanson looks like a good bet to finish in the top 5. He was in the Top 7 in FG attempts last year, he's in a good offense, and he's accurate (87.9%).

 

[Usual21]

Hanson will be the #1 kicker this year. Calling it now.

 

[bostonfred]

I want offenses that get the ball near field goal range. That can be done with a high powered offense, inefficient red zone offense, a high turnover defense, good return teams, and a coach who trusts them. The Bears had four of the five last year. The Cardinals did too, the year before. The Patriots had four of the five the year before that.

This year, some of the kickers that seem likely to do well:

Gostkowski

Rackers

Hanson

Elam

I like Mare a lot and think he could explode, but I don't think he will be the #1 kicker. They're just too good an offense to stall that often inside the 40. What you're looking for with them are drives that start inside their own 30, and end inside their opponents' 30, without scoring. How many times a season will that happen for them, compared with a team that starts more drives inside their opponents' territory, and has a more inconsistent offense?

If Leinart does well, I can see Rackers returning to form. That team is built around turnovers because they're not that good on defense, and while they have receivers who can pick up yards in bunches, they're far from the Colts. He's going pretty late compared with the others, and I've been picking him up with my last pick.

 

[Mystery Achiever]

[i think the key is to look at who is hot after week 3/4. I haven't looked into it as deep as I had hoped, but it appears as though each year a couple of low ranked kickers spring out of the block and they continue to perform well all season long. I'll try to post the data I have from the past three seasons later...

This worked great for me last year. Kaeding had an early bye and was dropped in both my leagues by teams who presumably didn't want to drop someone else for a 2nd kicker.

 

[Tau837]

After crunching all sorts of stats over a 5-year span, the only category that seems to have any real pattern is offensive points scored. From 2002-2006, the top 5 kickers have come from a top 10 offense 80% of the time (20 out of 25). As for top 10 defenses, that number drops down to 56% (14 out of 25). Here is another way to break down the top 5 kickers over the last 5 years:Top 10 offense and top 10 defense - 10 out of 25 - 40%Top 10 offense and not top 10 defense - 10 out of 25 - 40%Not top 10 offense and top 10 defense - 4 out of 25 - 16%Not top 10 offense and not top 10 defense - 1 out of 25 - 4%To me, this suggests a top offensive scoring team will yield the better scoring kickers, without regard for that team's defense. Only 1 kicker in each of the last 5 years has come from a team that was not top 10 in scoring.BTW, I also crunched stats for rushing and receiving, both offensively and defensively, and they yielded no significant pattern. Now, the question becomes, which teams are going to be in the top 10 in scoring in 2007?

Johnny =

 

[Sulla]

When in doubt, I say go with a dome kicker.

 

[Skinsfansince72]

Just pick Jason Elam. He's the only guy we know is going to finish this season in the top 10.

There are others. Wilkins has been $$ for several years now. He always seems to be among the leaders in FGA(and if your league awards extra points for 50 yarders, he's going to kick at least 3 of those as well). And he's kicking in doors or in places where the weather isn't too bad just about every week.

 

[GoBears84]

I think the key is to look at who is hot after week 3/4. I haven't looked into it as deep as I had hoped, but it appears as though each year a couple of low ranked kickers spring out of the block and they continue to perform well all season long. I'll try to post the data I have from the past three seasons later...

Here is some limited analysis, using Hermans Kickermania data:2005

Kicker......After Week 2......Pre Season Rank.....Final Rank

Graham...........1.........................10........................3

Kasay..............2.........................6..........................7

Tynes..............2.........................20........................9

Racker............4........................21.........................1

Lindell.............4........................19.........................13

Reed...............5.........................8...........................5

2006

Kicker......After Week 2......Pre Season Rank.....Final Rank

Wilkins............1..........................12........................3

Vinateri...........2..........................10........................5

Kaeting...........3..........................13........................2

Gould..............4..........................29.......................1

Carney............4..........................NR.......................7

I had actually looked at Herman's rankings going into week 3, not after week 3...

In 10 out of 11 cases, if you grabbed a hot kicker early, he carried you to a top 10.

 

[JHuber77]

Just take Gostkowski in the last round, most people are skipping him because they have man crushes on Vinateri, Gould, Kaeding, Wilkins, Graham and Elam. It really doesnt matter, kickers are pretty much all the same.

 

[mad sweeney]

Which ever kicker is available at my last pick with the best offense.

 

[SSOG]

Just pick Jason Elam. He's the only guy we know is going to finish this season in the top 10.

There are others. Wilkins has been $$ for several years now. He always seems to be among the leaders in FGA(and if your league awards extra points for 50 yarders, he's going to kick at least 3 of those as well). And he's kicking in doors or in places where the weather isn't too bad just about every week.

Wilkins has two straight top-10 finishes. Elam has ten straight top-10 finishes. The second longest top-10 streak belongs to Stover (at 4). Shayne Graham (3 straight top-10 finishes) is the ONLY OTHER KICKER IN THE ENTIRE LEAGUE with more than 2 straight top-10 finishes. I'm not making this up.Elam has finished top-10 100% of the time over the last 10 years. He's finished top-5 60% of the time. He's finished top-3 40% of the time. He has 6 top-3 finishes in his 14 year career, and he's never finished lower than 14th (way back in 1995 ). Conveniently enough, Wilkins has been with the Rams for 10 seasons, so it's easy to compare the two kickers over that span. During that time, Wilkins has made the top-10 just 50% of the time, the top-5 40% of the time, and the top-3 30% of the time. He has finished as many seasons ranked 24th or lower as he has finished ranked 3rd or higher (including twice in the past 5 seasons). And Wilkins really is one of the best in the business- it just goes to show you how, outside of Jason Elam, there is really NO consistency in fantasy kickers from year to year. Stover and Vinatieri are close, but still nowhere near Elam's class.

Like I said, Elam is just so far ahead of his peers on a year-to-year basis that there's no comparison. Elam is literally rewriting the record books as we speak. Morton Anderson is the leading scorer in league history. He had 1440 points through his first 14 seasons- Jason Elam has 1672, a number Anderson didn't reach until midway through his 17th season. Anderson had 14 100-point campaigns in 24 seasons. Elam has 14 in 14 seasons. Anderson had 8 115+ point campains in 24 years. Elam has TWELVE in 14 years. Anderson holds the record for 50+ yard figgies with 40 in 24 seasons (30 through his first 14 seasons). Elam has 36 in 14 seasons, and has never gone a year without making at least one. Anderson took 84 attempts to make his 40 50+ yarders (47.6%). Elam has only required 59 attempts to hit his 36 field goals, giving him a remarkable 61% accuracy from 50+ yards. If Elam keeps up his current pace, he'll break Anderson's scoring record in 6 and a half years, a full 3+ years faster than it took Anderson to set it, and will break Anderson's 50+ yard FG record in a year and a half, over 5 years faster than it took Anderson to set it.

Basically, Jason Elam is the Peyton Manning of kickers- a guy whose consistency from year to year and whose scoring pace is really unmatched in all of football. He'll rewrite the record books before he retires, and he'll do so in record time. Just like Peyton Manning always goes as the #1 QB off the board, even though he usually doesn't finish as the #1, so too should Elam be the #1 kicker off the board. I mean, the guy has a career low of 103 points, and only twice has he failed to crack 110. That's remarkable.

 

[OU#1]

Just pick Jason Elam. He's the only guy we know is going to finish this season in the top 10.

There are others. Wilkins has been $$ for several years now. He always seems to be among the leaders in FGA(and if your league awards extra points for 50 yarders, he's going to kick at least 3 of those as well). And he's kicking in doors or in places where the weather isn't too bad just about every week.

Wilkins has two straight top-10 finishes. Elam has ten straight top-10 finishes. The second longest top-10 streak belongs to Stover (at 4). Shayne Graham (3 straight top-10 finishes) is the ONLY OTHER KICKER IN THE ENTIRE LEAGUE with more than 2 straight top-10 finishes. I'm not making this up.Elam has finished top-10 100% of the time over the last 10 years. He's finished top-5 60% of the time. He's finished top-3 40% of the time. He has 6 top-3 finishes in his 14 year career, and he's never finished lower than 14th (way back in 1995 ). Conveniently enough, Wilkins has been with the Rams for 10 seasons, so it's easy to compare the two kickers over that span. During that time, Wilkins has made the top-10 just 50% of the time, the top-5 40% of the time, and the top-3 30% of the time. He has finished as many seasons ranked 24th or lower as he has finished ranked 3rd or higher (including twice in the past 5 seasons). And Wilkins really is one of the best in the business- it just goes to show you how, outside of Jason Elam, there is really NO consistency in fantasy kickers from year to year. Stover and Vinatieri are close, but still nowhere near Elam's class.

Like I said, Elam is just so far ahead of his peers on a year-to-year basis that there's no comparison. Elam is literally rewriting the record books as we speak. Morton Anderson is the leading scorer in league history. He had 1440 points through his first 14 seasons- Jason Elam has 1672, a number Anderson didn't reach until midway through his 17th season. Anderson had 14 100-point campaigns in 24 seasons. Elam has 14 in 14 seasons. Anderson had 8 115+ point campains in 24 years. Elam has TWELVE in 14 years. Anderson holds the record for 50+ yard figgies with 40 in 24 seasons (30 through his first 14 seasons). Elam has 36 in 14 seasons, and has never gone a year without making at least one. Anderson took 84 attempts to make his 40 50+ yarders (47.6%). Elam has only required 59 attempts to hit his 36 field goals, giving him a remarkable 61% accuracy from 50+ yards. If Elam keeps up his current pace, he'll break Anderson's scoring record in 6 and a half years, a full 3+ years faster than it took Anderson to set it, and will break Anderson's 50+ yard FG record in a year and a half, over 5 years faster than it took Anderson to set it.

Basically, Jason Elam is the Peyton Manning of kickers- a guy whose consistency from year to year and whose scoring pace is really unmatched in all of football. He'll rewrite the record books before he retires, and he'll do so in record time. Just like Peyton Manning always goes as the #1 QB off the board, even though he usually doesn't finish as the #1, so too should Elam be the #1 kicker off the board. I mean, the guy has a career low of 103 points, and only twice has he failed to crack 110. That's remarkable.

I'm sold...where do I sign?

 

[Bri]

While posting in my other thread about my 2007 sleepers I posted a comment about kickers that I think need some discussion. I don't have the numbers to back it up, but here is the post and my response."With kickers, it is a very hard question. Do I go with the explosive offense and count my extra points, or do I go with a kicker on a team with a very good defense and a decent offense, but not explosive? I tend to lean toward teams with a good defense and decent offense (especially running game), who will leave my kicker with a lot of chances. Most of those chances are within the 40-50 yd range also."

I think the K with the best offense is the agreed upon better K in FF. In drafts, Wilkins, Vinatieri, Graham, Kaeding all seem to go fairly early.However, JohnnyU did you mean this post in regards to last few rounds Ks that are left?If so, I try to think of recent team history. Eventually it occurs to me that one particular team always has a pretty good K and he stands out. I'm sure Mike Herman would know better, but I feel like there's so many Ks moving team to team that it's safer to track the team's kicking success than the actual K.