How to choose a kicker (1 Viewer)

[Bri]

Elam has finished top-10 100% of the time over the last 10 years. He's finished top-5 60% of the time. He's finished top-3 40% of the time. He has 6 top-3 finishes in his 14 year career, and he's never finished lower than 14th (way back in 1995 ). Conveniently enough, Wilkins has been with the Rams for 10 seasons, so it's easy to compare the two kickers over that span. During that time, Wilkins has made the top-10 just 50% of the time, the top-5 40% of the time, and the top-3 30% of the time. He has finished as many seasons ranked 24th or lower as he has finished ranked 3rd or higher (including twice in the past 5 seasons). And Wilkins really is one of the best in the business- it just goes to show you how, outside of Jason Elam, there is really NO consistency in fantasy kickers from year to year. Stover and Vinatieri are close, but still nowhere near Elam's class.Like I said, Elam is just so far ahead of his peers on a year-to-year basis that there's no comparison. (*snip*)Basically, Jason Elam is the Peyton Manning of kickers- a guy whose consistency from year to year and whose scoring pace is really unmatched in all of football. He'll rewrite the record books before he retires, and he'll do so in record time. Just like Peyton Manning always goes as the #1 QB off the board, even though he usually doesn't finish as the #1, so too should Elam be the #1 kicker off the board. I mean, the guy has a career low of 103 points, and only twice has he failed to crack 110. That's remarkable.

Broncos homer,check the facts next time please- Vinatieri 288 FGM 405 XPM 11 years 26.18 FG per yr 37.09 XP per yrElam 368 FGM 568 XPM 14 years 26.28 FG per yr 40.57 XP per yrThere's only a .1 avg Field Goals made per season difference between Vinatieri and Elam.

 

[ChadforPresident]

My kicker philosophy is to pick a kicker as late as needed and I only pick one. That said then I will try to get a kicker with a bye week later in the season. I also prefer to get a kicker that is on the same team as one of my stud RB team. This is only because of after years of watching a lot of football I have learned that it relieves some of my frustration when my RB doesn't score in the redzone.

 

[SSOG]

Elam has finished top-10 100% of the time over the last 10 years. He's finished top-5 60% of the time. He's finished top-3 40% of the time. He has 6 top-3 finishes in his 14 year career, and he's never finished lower than 14th (way back in 1995 ). Conveniently enough, Wilkins has been with the Rams for 10 seasons, so it's easy to compare the two kickers over that span. During that time, Wilkins has made the top-10 just 50% of the time, the top-5 40% of the time, and the top-3 30% of the time. He has finished as many seasons ranked 24th or lower as he has finished ranked 3rd or higher (including twice in the past 5 seasons). And Wilkins really is one of the best in the business- it just goes to show you how, outside of Jason Elam, there is really NO consistency in fantasy kickers from year to year. Stover and Vinatieri are close, but still nowhere near Elam's class.

Like I said, Elam is just so far ahead of his peers on a year-to-year basis that there's no comparison. (*snip*)Basically, Jason Elam is the Peyton Manning of kickers- a guy whose consistency from year to year and whose scoring pace is really unmatched in all of football. He'll rewrite the record books before he retires, and he'll do so in record time. Just like Peyton Manning always goes as the #1 QB off the board, even though he usually doesn't finish as the #1, so too should Elam be the #1 kicker off the board. I mean, the guy has a career low of 103 points, and only twice has he failed to crack 110. That's remarkable.

Broncos homer,check the facts next time please-

Vinatieri 288 FGM 405 XPM 11 years 26.18 FG per yr 37.09 XP per yr

Elam 368 FGM 568 XPM 14 years 26.28 FG per yr 40.57 XP per yr

There's only a .1 avg Field Goals made per season difference between Vinatieri and Elam.

Check my facts? Kindly inform me which "facts" I posted that were incorrect? Vinatieri is another guy I really, really like, but he's not in Elam's class, and pointing out his career averages isn't going to change that fact. Here's a nice comparison of the two. Vinatieri's been in the league for 11 years, so let's do a comparison of the two players over that 11-year span.Top 10 finishes-

Elam: 10

Vinatieri: 5

Top 5 finishes-

Elam: 6

Vinatieri: 2

Top 3 finishes-

Elam: 4

Vinatieri: 1

Lowest fantasy finish-

Elam: 14th

Vinatieri: 19th

Average fantasy finish (career, not past 11 years)-

Elam: 5.6th

Vinatieri: 10.6th

Now, to be perfectly fair, Vinatieri missed 3 games last season and finished outside of the top-10 by 2 points (12th overall), but was the #2 kicker in terms of ppg. Even if we decide to be super-generous and give him three more games at his normal pace last season, that gives Elam a 10-6 advantage in top-10 finishes, a 6-3 advantage in top-5 finishes, a 4-2 advantage in top-3 finishes, and, oh yeah, an extra 2nd, 3rd, and 7th place finish before Vinatieri even entered the league.

Let's say you're in a fantasy league that gives bonus points for distance, though. Well, Vinatieri is 8-18 career on 50+ yarders (44.4%), and hasn't hit a single one since 2002 (he's 0-5 during that span). During that same span, Elam is 11-18.

Okay, let's say you're in a fantasy league that penalizes you for missing short kicks (under 40 yards). Vinatieri is a very impressive 90% (196-217) on kicks from 0-39 yards. Jason Elam, on the other hand, weighs in at a mere... 94% (239-255). Vinatieri actually has 5 more misses on 38 fewer attempts. In fact, the *ONLY CATEGORY* where Adam Vinatieri tops Jason Elam is accuracy from 40-49 yards- Elam's more accurate from under 40, significantly more accurate on over 50, and the most accurate kicker in history on PATs (Vinatieri has missed more than twice as many PATs on 159 fewer attempts). Maybe if you play in a fantasy football league that retroactively awards points for clutch kicks in the postseason, Adam Vinatieri should be mentioned in the same category as Jason Elam, but I've never encountered such a league. Have you?

I am an unabashed Denver homer, but I'm not the one that needs to check his facts, here.

 

[GDogg]

I think the key is to look at who is hot after week 3/4. I haven't looked into it as deep as I had hoped, but it appears as though each year a couple of low ranked kickers spring out of the block and they continue to perform well all season long. I'll try to post the data I have from the past three seasons later...

Here is some limited analysis, using Hermans Kickermania data:2005

Kicker......After Week 2......Pre Season Rank.....Final Rank

Graham...........1.........................10........................3

Kasay..............2.........................6..........................7

Tynes..............2.........................20........................9

Racker............4........................21.........................1

Lindell.............4........................19.........................13

Reed...............5.........................8...........................5

2006

Kicker......After Week 2......Pre Season Rank.....Final Rank

Wilkins............1..........................12........................3

Vinateri...........2..........................10........................5

Kaeting...........3..........................13........................2

Gould..............4..........................29.......................1

Carney............4..........................NR.......................7

I had actually looked at Herman's rankings going into week 3, not after week 3...

In 10 out of 11 cases, if you grabbed a hot kicker early, he carried you to a top 10.

So, it looks like these guys are the favorites for a Top 10 season, but we'll know more after this week:Crosby

Hanson

Vinatieri

Tynes

Reed

Suisham

Kasay

Elam

Folk

Nedney

 

[joey]

I think the key is to look at who is hot after week 3/4. I haven't looked into it as deep as I had hoped, but it appears as though each year a couple of low ranked kickers spring out of the block and they continue to perform well all season long. I'll try to post the data I have from the past three seasons later...

Here is some limited analysis, using Hermans Kickermania data:2005

Kicker......After Week 2......Pre Season Rank.....Final Rank

Graham...........1.........................10........................3

Kasay..............2.........................6..........................7

Tynes..............2.........................20........................9

Racker............4........................21.........................1

Lindell.............4........................19.........................13

Reed...............5.........................8...........................5

2006

Kicker......After Week 2......Pre Season Rank.....Final Rank

Wilkins............1..........................12........................3

Vinateri...........2..........................10........................5

Kaeting...........3..........................13........................2

Gould..............4..........................29.......................1

Carney............4..........................NR.......................7

I had actually looked at Herman's rankings going into week 3, not after week 3...

In 10 out of 11 cases, if you grabbed a hot kicker early, he carried you to a top 10.

I know it's "only a kicker" but the above post stuck with me this year so I thought I'd look at this year's numbers.Kicker...................Rank After Week 2..........Rank After Week 15 (heading into most FF Championship games)

Reed,Jeff......................1...................................16

Folk,Nick......................2...................................4

Vinatieri,Adam..............3...................................10

Hanson,Jason................4..................................11

Elam,Jason...................5...................................12

Akers,David..................6...................................20

Suisham,Shaun.............7...................................14

Brown,Kris....................8..................................8

Tynes,Lawrence............9...................................18

Wilkins,Jeff...................10.................................26

Ouch, I had no agenda to prove or disprove GoBears' theory. Honestly, I was hoping his

theory was true so that the kicker position would've been that much easier to handle next year.

I know it's only one year but the numbers don't look good. Only 3 of the top 10 after week 2

ended up in the top 10 by the end of the year.

Not sure if it's even worth it, but let's turn this around the other way and look at the current

top 10 after week 15 and see where they ranked after week 2 of this year:

Kicker...................Rank After Week 15..........Rank After Week 2

Crosby,Mason................1.....................................19

Gostkowski,Stephen.......2.....................................16

Bironas,Rob...................3.....................................17

Folk,Nick........................4....................................2

Graham,Shayne.............5.....................................15

Dawson,Phil...................6.....................................12

Gould,Robbie.................7.....................................23

Brown,Kris.....................8....................................8

Brown,Josh....................9.....................................11

Vinatieri,Adam...............10...................................3

Again, only 3 of the top 10 kickers at this point were in the top 10 after 2 weeks.

Well, I guess we'll have to revisit this again next year cuz this year's early stats

didn't predict much when it came to end of year finish.

The one thing the do have in common it that they're almost all kickers on teams with good offenses.

 

[blend]

Vinatieri is ranked top 10 in some leagues??? He's 23rd in one of my leagues and 20th in the other says the Angry Adam V owner

I kept thinking the Indy offense might stall and he'd get some FG opportunities not 4-5 extra points every game.