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How valuable is Peterson? (1 Viewer)
- Thread starter Ilov80s
- Start date
ghostguy123
Footballguy
Dynasty? How many teams? What is the scoring system? How many roster spots? Is there a taxi squad? What is the lineup requirement? How can anyone answer this really without knowing about the league?
Man of Zen
Footballguy
Well, he's ranked number 1 unanimously by every rankings/projections site, and is in his own tier because that's how last year turned out. There's never a lot of imagination in public rankings or projections.
How valuable is he? Obviously very. At the very least, you have to say he's in the discussion for being potentially the best FF back for 2013, and that plus his perceived value among owners probably makes him a better target than other backs with similar ceilings. After all, if you think Peterson and TRich are likely to have the same EOY value, but you could conceivably trade Peterson FOR TRich plus an upgrade, why wouldn't you value him higher? So I have him valued highest, even though I don't project him highest.
What would I trade him or pick one away for? Any pick in that top 4 or 5, plus virtually any later pick that I thought had a chance to improve my team. I'd probably start bargaining by asking for a 4th or 5th for one of my late rounders, in addition to the first round swap, but would be willing to work downward somewhat if I needed to.
What would I trade to move up? Nothing. I see players I'd be at least as happy with scattered throughout the first round.
Phenix
Footballguy
None of this matters. You don't trade the best piece the game has to offer. Adrian Peterson is the best fantasy football piece anyone can have now, tomorrow and next year.
1 - As of right now, he is the best player on the field no matter who else in this world bar none is standing on it with him.
2 - He is virtually not human, more like a freak of nature.
3 - Name someone safer and with more opportunity in the NFL, the team is built around him.
4 - Have you seen him play.
5 - He has never had less than 10 rushing TDs in a season
#1 pick in all drafts no matter what the format.
Low Risk always High reward, barring injury.
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Ilov80s
Footballguy
Ilov80s
Footballguy
I would argue he is the clear number not because he was first last year, but because he has been a top 3 RB every year he has played the NFL except for the year he hurt his knee and only played 12 games. He still finished 8th that year.
pghrob
Hail to the Chief
Good post by you. I "won" the 1st overall pick in our 12 team ppr redraft. Starting requirements 1qb, 2rb,2wr, 1te, 1flex(r,w,t) 1d/st, 1k. Yet, when I look at Chase Stuart's "Optimal Draft" article posted yesterday at fbg.com, a takeaway I had is that I could still draft a team that based on projections, could still yield more total year-end team points without Peterson, than with him (granted my a slim margin). These were teams drafted from the 3-5 slot that selected Megatron with their first pick. If there is a market for other fantasy teams to want to move up to #1 overall, I would strongly consider swapping with #3-5 slot drafter and trying to get his 4th rounder.
His value is based on two things: 1. Unanimity in projecting him and probability in him finishing as year end rb1. 2. Scarcity of 3-down rb's across the NFL.
But for those drafting from #1 slot in redraft, there could be minimal drop-off if the pick to draft him is traded away for another quality starter who can be drafted in round 4 or 5.
Mr. Know-It-All
Footballguy
Peterson, Calvin Johnson and Jimmy Graham (in TE mandatory leagues) are the only guys in a positional tier by themselves. If you get one of them you have a HUGE advantage over the league at that position - now, at least with Johnson and Graham the drop off is not as severe - but with RB being such a crapshoot I can't imagine not wanting ADP at 1.1. What would I gve up to move there? I offered 1.2 and 2.11 for his 1.1 and 3.1. I was turned down
Thats a tiny upgrade
Sort of like trading
AD + Julio for Doug Martin + Demaryius
doesn't make sense
Mr. Know-It-All
Footballguy
well I know that but it was worth the offer - if he took it I got ADP, if not I still had #2 pick.
Adam Harstad
Moderator
You wouldn't trade Peterson for anything? You wouldn't, say, trade the 1.01 and the 5.01 for the 1.02 and the 3.02? You think the dropoff from Peterson to Martin (or Charles, or Foster, or McCoy, or Richardson, or whoever you like at #2) is greater than the upgrade from Matthew Stafford to Peyton Manning, or from Hakeem Nicks to Larry Fitzgerald (the equivalent of an early 5th for an early 3rd)? Because I would do that all day long without hesitating for a second.
Adrian Peterson is very valuable, but he's not Tomlinson/Holmes/Faulk-in-their-primes valuable. Last year was the first time in his career that Peterson topped 150 VBD. Tomlinson did it five times in a six-year span. Peterson averages a very strong 8.2 VBD per game for his career, and posted an impressive 11.9 VBD per game last year. There was a 3-year span where Priest Holmes averaged 15.5 VBD per game. Adrian Peterson set his career best at age 27 with 307 fantasy points in 16 games. At age 27, Marshall Faulk scored 375 fantasy points... IN FOURTEEN GAMES. And all of these stats are using non-PPR scoring- adding the point per reception just makes the comparison that much more lopsided.
Those are guys who were pretty much untouchable. Adrian Peterson's season last year was the 13th best fantasy season by an RB just in the last decade alone. Go back 15 years, and Peterson falls to 23rd. His season was amazing on an NFL level, but on a fantasy level, it was actually a pretty weak fantasy season for a #1 overall player. In the last decade, only 2008 saw the top fantasy player produce fewer VBD (that was DeAngelo Williams in an exceptionally weak year for top fantasy players).
In other words, Adrian Peterson is far, far closer to Clinton Portis than he is to LaDainian Tomlinson, Priest Holmes, or Marshall Faulk- at least from a fantasy standpoint. He simply doesn't score enough TDs, and he doesn't get enough receptions. Peterson has scored 13 TDs four times, but has only topped the total once; LaDainian Tomlinson once topped it in six straight seasons. Adrian Peterson has never topped 3 receptions per game, while Tomlinson did it ten times in eleven years (including in both of his seasons with the Jets). As a runner, Adrian Peterson is without peer. As a fantasy weapon, though, he's far from untouchable.
Ilov80s
Footballguy
So if you get Peterson, you obviously had the 1st pick. With how much people are loving RBs this year, you might be left with some trouble filling your RB2 slot (Wilson? McFadden? Murray? Miller? I am not that comfortable with where you have to draft those guys and what they may provide). Has anyone in this spot considered trading Peterson/mid round RB for 2 of the top 16 RBs? Maybe a way of diversifying at that RB position and not being completely dependent on Peterson for your RB numbers? What combination of RBs would worth targeting?
Man of Zen
Footballguy
I think the most likely scenario for me is that if I feel locked into pick one and AP, when rounds 2/3 come around, I'm going one of two ways:
- If a second RB I rate that high falls, I grab him without question, counting on AP's value bump to give me the edge I give away by accepting the uncertainty of mid-round WR's
- If none does, that means killer WR/Graham values have fallen to me, and I double up on those, with the idea that I'm going to pound middle-round RB's and bet the odds land me an RB2 or two, and rely on depth and value to carry the day at QB and TE.
- If a second RB I rate that high falls, I grab him without question, counting on AP's value bump to give me the edge I give away by accepting the uncertainty of mid-round WR's
- If none does, that means killer WR/Graham values have fallen to me, and I double up on those, with the idea that I'm going to pound middle-round RB's and bet the odds land me an RB2 or two, and rely on depth and value to carry the day at QB and TE.
With CJ2K, MJD, Murray trending upwards - your RB2 options are looking better than a couple of weeks ago.
IMO there is a drop off at about 26th-29th pick now. In other words, the best first 2 picks might be from the 11 or 12 slot, but the best 3 first picks are usually going to be among the 1,2 + 3 slots. From the 1 spot you can feel safe you can grab an elite RB1, WR1, and solid RB2.
Adam Harstad
Moderator
That's an ideal situation as a Peterson owner. That means you get two players from Calvin, Green, Dez, Marshall, Julio, Demaryius, Graham, or your top QB. I would be thrilled as hell to start my draft with Peterson, Rodgers (or Brees), and Graham, or with Peterson, Marshall, and Julio. You can find plenty of crappy RBs to throw at the wall late in the draft in hopes one will stick. You usually can't find a difference-maker like Graham, Demaryius, or Rodgers in the 3rd. You'll be weak at your #2 RB, but everyone is weak somewhere; I'd gladly roll out someone like Chris Ivory or Ahmad Bradshaw every week if it meant I could have two top-5 receivers, or huge difference-makers like Rodgers and Graham.
Ilov80s
Footballguy
Yeah, I will platoon DWill and Vareen, probably will be ok there. I had no issue taking Julio and Graham at the turn.
cstu
Footballguy
If there was a run on RB's I'd be happy to grab other positions and get another RB at the 4/5 turn.
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cstu
Footballguy
Ilov80s
Footballguy
Montee Ball, Rashard Mendenhall, Daryl Richardson, and Gio Bernard. Again, I had a hard time justifying any of those guys in the 4th or 5th round. I ended up taking Gronk and Garcon instead.
ETA: we start 2 RBs, 2 WRs, 1 TE, and 1 WR/TE flex
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Sabertooth
Footballguy
No he isn't. I'd consider Trent straight up for him. In a 2QB league, I'd trade him for Cam, Rodgers, and Luck.
MrJimiT
Footballguy
Agreed to some extent. I'm sitting at #1 this season, in a 10-team 2QB league that thru flex could start 3RB's....and AP, Brees/Rodgers, CJ are all very very close depending how I view my league's drafting pattern through the first 21 picks. While perplexing as it may seem...it's kind of interesting that I can go in various directions to fill out my roster.
cstu
Footballguy
I would have had no problem taking Gio over Garcon. Hard to believe Gronk's value is that low even if he misses half the season.
AP, two top WR's at the 2/3, Gio and Gronk. Get a QB at the end of the 6th and that's solid team.
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Ilov80s
Footballguy
Going back to the prior question, do I roll with Peterson and a weak RB2 or try and turn Peterson into 2 RBs?
cstu
Footballguy
I would have a hard time trading AP unless it was a spectacular offer, say Spiller and Chris Johnson. With Peterson I'd feel pretty good about finding a 2nd RB to put up decent numbers.
