How's your housing market? (1 Viewer)

[tommyGunZ]

San Diego: record high inventories, median price going negative YOY this month for the first time in 8 yrs., and new home/condo projects being cancelled. The party is officially over in SD, now buyers are waiting out the sellers and the words "reduction" and "motivated" are in every ad.

I see Phoenix has over 50,000 places on the market. WOW.

How's your market doing? Has momentum changed?

EDIT: Title changed.

 

[jonessed]

My parent's neighbors just sold their home for 15% more than a similar house a few blocks down the road sold last year in three weeks. They live in Encinitas (San Diego). They are in a great school district though so maybe that's helping them buck the trend. Even local markets have a great deal of variation.

I live in Sacramento and we have been flat for some time now with a great number of houses sitting on the market with unrealistic asking prices. A house down the road that was bought in mid 2004 (built in 2005) just sold a few days ago for $700K and I know the guy bought it for around $500K so there is still a lot of room there. It's kind of a whacky market. There are comparable houses listed for low $600s, but we live on a closed street backed up against a big park and around the corner from the elementary school so I'm guessing that's why it sold.

I expect prices to decline, but how much is tough to tell. It depends on the economy and interest rates. If the economy steadies out, but stays above water I would expect an initial dip (10-15%) and a long leveling off (a good 5+ years), if it tanks then we are probably looking at a 30%+ initial decline and probably a continuing decline until the economy picks back up.

On a side note: Rents around here are shooting up. There has been a 5-10% increase since last year and we are expected to see another 5-10% increase next year. I know some of the investors that bought in 2001-2003 are pulling their houses off the market and deciding to rent them (that's what I'm hearing from a real estate buddy that catered to that demographic).

 

[daddo39]

San Diego: record high inventories, median price going negative YOY this month for the first time in 8 yrs., and new home/condo projects being cancelled. The party is officially over in SD, now buyers are waiting out the sellers and the words "reduction" and "motivated" are in every ad.

I see Phoenix has over 50,000 places on the market. WOW.

How's your market doing? Has momentum changed?

Eastern shore of Maryland is doing exactly the same thing. It is solely the fault of the big corporate builders.They flooded the market & are killing the small local guys.

 

[_4_]

Vegas is softening up too. Drops of 10-20% from asking prices of just 2 or 3 months ago are commonplace.

 

[azgroover]

I live near the back of my subdivision and I can tell you that I pass at least 6 homes for sale from the point where I enter the development until I get to my house. There's one amusing cluster of three where one home for sale sits directly across the street from two next door neighbors who are for sale. Rates aren't too bad yet though, so if you have a fair price, you can still move your house; it will just take longer than 2005. Last week, I met with some guys from one of the largest builders in the country, and they basically told me their corporate office isn't even considering 2005 in their projections. They also said they're at a point now where if someone comes into cancel a build, they will work with them and start throwing incentives and discounts to keep the buyer committed, of course they're not advertising this.

 

[MrPhoenix]

St. Louis has slowed down considerably. The pendulum has swung more towards the middle now, actually favoring buyers more. Good thing, because I'm starting to get sick of the mom n' pop real estate places that are popping up everywhere in my area.

If you're looking to move to St. Louis, it's looking pretty favorable for you. Lots of homes for sale, very saturated market, and lots of realtors looking for business. My mom's trying to sell her house and she's had to whack $6k off the listing price because the damn thing just won't sell. Too many tire-kickers. Never seen it before in my life.

 

[azgroover]

I live near the back of my subdivision and I can tell you that I pass at least 6 homes for sale from the point where I enter the development until I get to my house. There's one amusing cluster of three where one home for sale sits directly across the street from two next door neighbors who are for sale. Rates aren't too bad yet though, so if you have a fair price, you can still move your house; it will just take longer than 2005. Last week, I met with some guys from one of the largest builders in the country, and they basically told me their corporate office isn't even considering 2005 in their projections. They also said they're at a point now where if someone comes into cancel a build, they will work with them and start throwing incentives and discounts to keep the buyer committed, of course they're not advertising this.

Oh yeah, and the builders are laying off like mad right now. I know several people who have been effected. (is it affected or effected? whatever)

 

[Judge Smails]

Thousand Oaks, CA checking in. Inventory is much higher, with multiple for sale signs on many streets in our neighborhood. Asking prices (which were off the charts high) are coming down..

 

[roadkill1292]

Baltimore metro: inventory in May (haven't seen June numbers yet) was double that of May 2005 and median selling price was down $10,000 from a year ago. My small subdivision of about 85 homes has five on the market, one since before Christmas, no sales since the first one was listed. IMO, all five sellers have unrealistic asking prices; it's like everybody still thinks you can slap any price you want on your house and you'll get it.

And my biggest builder (I'm in floorcovering) is getting ready for substantial layoffs because of soft demand.

 

[Courtjester]

Colorado may have areas that are cooling off, but Colorado Springs is still going very strong. If a for sale sign pops up on my block, that house is gone within the month. They are building 5,000 or so new homes right around us, which are being gobbled up by the 7,500 or so new troops on the way in at Fort Carson.

I think they are overbuilding, but the prices seem to be holding pretty firm around here.

 

[tommyGunZ]

 

[tommyGunZ]

4 Members: tommyGunZ, EYLive, BroadwayG, bagger

 

[John Mamula]

San Diego: record high inventories, median price going negative YOY this month for the first time in 8 yrs., and new home/condo projects being cancelled. The party is officially over in SD, now buyers are waiting out the sellers and the words "reduction" and "motivated" are in every ad.

I see Phoenix has over 50,000 places on the market. WOW.

How's your market doing? Has momentum changed?

Your stats on Phoenix are incorrect. It is about 44k right now.Looking at YOY means nothing as 2005 was an anomoly. Phoenix is leveling off around 2004 levels (all time high before the 2005 frenzy) and experts fully expect the majority of inventory to be burned through by Q1 2007.

In Phoenix there are extremely strong drivers of the market with population and job growth (which is what inherantly drives the real estate market). Rates are slowly creeping up but shouldn't be an issue until they break the 8.50% mark or so.

In Phoenix there is a glut in condos and they are being priced accordingly (again to about 2004 levels) and there are some nice buying opportunities. However as Phoenix grows and people's commutes are getting longer and longer much of this urban lifestyle will absorb the more price sensitive buyer. Bottom line, in-fill is generally resistant to most contractions in the market.

Bottom line, most analysts here understand that this buyers market is a temporary phenomenon until we get through the excess inventory created through many investors who bought in 2005. There is not a shift in market fundamentals but rather an anomoly that accounts for only about 7 months of supply (we are averaging about 6,500 sales per month...44k/6.5k = 6.76).

 

[John Mamula]

Thousand Oaks, CA checking in. Inventory is much higher, with multiple for sale signs on many streets in our neighborhood. Asking prices (which were off the charts high) are coming down..

T.O. is highly insulated from any downturns given it's prime location.My parents live in Westlake (I went to Westlake High) and I am not sure where you are looking in terms of pricing but everything in my parents' neighborhood continues to sell quickly and for a good chunk of cash.

I'm not saying there won't be any temporary declines there, but in 10 years T.O. will be another 50%+ higher in terms of price.

 

[John Mamula]

San Diego: record high inventories, median price going negative YOY this month for the first time in 8 yrs., and new home/condo projects being cancelled.  The party is officially over in SD, now buyers are waiting out the sellers and the words "reduction" and "motivated" are in every ad.

I see Phoenix has over 50,000 places on the market.  WOW.

How's your market doing?  Has momentum changed?

Eastern shore of Maryland is doing exactly the same thing. It is solely the fault of the big corporate builders.They flooded the market & are killing the small local guys.

this is the kind of solid logic i always look forward to in these threads.

 

[Loan Sharks]

Prices still going up in Orange County California from what I see.

 

[John Mamula]

...Rates aren't too bad yet though, so if you have a fair price, you can still move your house; it will just take longer than 2005. Last week, I met with some guys from one of the largest builders in the country, and they basically told me their corporate office isn't even considering 2005 in their projections. They also said they're at a point now where if someone comes into cancel a build, they will work with them and start throwing incentives and discounts to keep the buyer committed, of course they're not advertising this.

This is exactly it. If you offer a price that is commensurate with the market, you will sell your place. You should expect 2-3 months. 2005 shouldn't be considered in projections in Phoenix because it was out of hand and nobody expected it to continue.You are correct that most builders will work with people and rightly so. If you put $5k down as a deposit and see that the home you bought 6 months ago is now selling for $30k less, you would (should) walk away from your deposit and buy the new homes over again. So what builders will do will be to throw in a bunch of upgrades and discount it a bit.

Bottom line, if you price your home unrealistically it won't sell. But that is how the resale market has always been. People need to take the number they think they "deserve" and get back in line with reality, which in all likelihood is a number closer to early to mid 2004 levels.

 

[John Mamula]

Vegas is softening up too. Drops of 10-20% from asking prices of just 2 or 3 months ago are commonplace.

The question you need to then ask yourself is how realistic was that asking price? Was it indicative of the market or was it someone who took 2005 average sales price of a comparable home and tacked on 25%?Price reductions when selling a home does not equal price declines.

 

[tommyGunZ]

Your stats on Phoenix are incorrect. It is about 44k right now.

I heard it was 50 if you included unsold new inventory - but you would know more than me.

Looking at YOY means nothing as 2005 was an anomoly. Phoenix is leveling off around 2004 levels (all time high before the 2005 frenzy)

What was the % gain in Phoenix in '05? 15%? 20+%? You say things are leveling off to 2004 levels - does that mean that 2005 gains have been given back? That's quite a hit considering inventory is still rising.

experts fully expect the majority of inventory to be burned through by Q1 2007.

Really? Spring is by far the most active season for RE sales. Perhaps you and the experts are correct, and you're going to see a mad rush of sales in the summer, fall and winter, but traditionally March thru May are the "high" months in terms of number of sales. Inventories generally rise throughout the remainder of the year historically.

Bottom line, most analysts here understand that this buyers market is a temporary phenomenon until we get through the excess inventory created through many investors who bought in 2005. There is not a shift in market fundamentals but rather an anomoly that accounts for only about 7 months of supply (we are averaging about 6,500 sales per month...44k/6.5k = 6.76).

No buying this - this sounds like something cut and pasted from an NAR newsletter. REITS have been crushed the last 6 months - all the statistics point to market weakness and declining prices in the near future. Homebuilder confidence is half of what it was last year. As usual, we differ in opinion on this subject. Let's check back in a few months and discuss.

 

[tommyGunZ]

People need to take the number they think they "deserve" and get back in line with reality, which in all likelihood is a number closer to early to mid 2004 levels.

I agree 100%. What % of a discount is that, if we erase the gains of late 2004 and the entirety of '05?

 

[Mr. Pickles]

bottom line: will GunZ be able to afford a shanty in Diego or not?

 

[John Mamula]

Your stats on Phoenix are incorrect.  It is about 44k right now.

I heard it was 50 if you included unsold new inventory - but you would know more than me.

Looking at YOY means nothing as 2005 was an anomoly.  Phoenix is leveling off around 2004 levels (all time high before the 2005 frenzy)

What was the % gain in Phoenix in '05? 15%? 20+%? You say things are leveling off to 2004 levels - does that mean that 2005 gains have been given back? That's quite a hit considering inventory is still rising.

experts fully expect the majority of inventory to be burned through by Q1 2007.

Really? Spring is by far the most active season for RE sales. Perhaps you and the experts are correct, and you're going to see a mad rush of sales in the summer, fall and winter, but traditionally March thru May are the "high" months in terms of number of sales. Inventories generally rise throughout the remainder of the year historically.

Bottom line, most analysts here understand that this buyers market is a temporary phenomenon until we get through the excess inventory created through many investors who bought in 2005. There is not a shift in market fundamentals but rather an anomoly that accounts for only about 7 months of supply (we are averaging about 6,500 sales per month...44k/6.5k = 6.76).

No buying this - this sounds like something cut and pasted from an NAR newsletter. REITS have been crushed the last 6 months - all the statistics point to market weakness and declining prices in the near future. Homebuilder confidence is half of what it was last year. As usual, we differ in opinion on this subject. Let's check back in a few months and discuss.

I'll try to answer these quickly here...If you include new unsold home inventory that might get close to 50k, but it would depend how you classify that I bet, and it would take you being real aggressive defining inventory to get you from 44 to 50.

2006 prices are up about 25% from 2005. The levels I was talking about were permits and housing growth.

Arizona doesn't have a strong spring and then a quiet rest of the year. It is actually quite strong in the fall with so many winter visitors buying homes. Wherever you heard that rule of thumb from is just flat out incorrect.

Not sure what this has to do with REITs. REITs are commercial or apartment real estate. We're talking residential construction here. That's fine if you "don't want to buy it" but the facts are that we have 44k of inventory and our sales pace is 6,500 homes per month. That is what all homebuilders and land developers use to estimate if there is softness or strength in a market. While 44k sounds bad, inventory are still less than a year, which is still very strong.

However, I guess that doesn't mean as much as "homebuilder confidence" whatever that is.

The Arizona market is anything but weak, although it is going through a short term period of excess inventory and flattening out appreciation from prior years. This is something I talked about last year when we had this conversation.

 

[bostonfred]

I respect bagger's opinion on this, but I generally try to take anyone's opinion on a market with a grain of salt when they're invested in it.

 

[Red Apples]

los angeles/venice beach

in the last 3 months, 3 houses on my block have been put on the market and sold.

they sat their a good 3 to 5 weeks, which is a lot longer than usual.

but our house has risen 35% since we bought it 15 monthsn ago, per our realtor, who keeps comming by and asking if we want to move it.

 

[John Mamula]

People need to take the number they think they "deserve" and get back in line with reality, which in all likelihood is a number closer to early to mid 2004 levels.

I agree 100%. What % of a discount is that, if we erase the gains of late 2004 and the entirety of '05?

But you aren't seeing a reversion to 2003 pricing levels for the market as a whole.

 

[John Mamula]

I respect bagger's opinion on this, but I generally try to take anyone's opinion on a market with a grain of salt when they're invested in it.

I really don't have much of an incentive to artificially inflate my opinion of the R/E market here...I don't think anyone here will be buying any land from our group.

 

[tommyGunZ]

People need to take the number they think they "deserve" and get back in line with reality, which in all likelihood is a number closer to early to mid 2004 levels.

I agree 100%. What % of a discount is that, if we erase the gains of late 2004 and the entirety of '05?

But you aren't seeing a reversion to 2003 pricing levels for the market as a whole.

Not yet. Again, what is the % the Phoenix market is giving back if you say prices are falling to mid 2004 levels? Erasing 2005 gains entirely is quite a decline, and not at all what you were predicting months ago.According to this article, Phoenix led the nation in 2005 growth at 38%:

However, from the fourth quarter of 2005 to the first quarter of 2006, median prices nationwide fell from $225,300 to $217,900, a drop of 3.3 percent. It's the second consecutive quarter that prices showed a sequential decline; in the fourth quarter of 2005, prices fell 1 percent from the third quarter.

Many major metro areas showed slight declines, including Washington D.C. (down 2.4 percent), Los Angeles (down 0.8 percent) and Chicago (down 0.8 percent).

And some smaller metro areas fell precipitously, including Danville, Illinois (down 17.7 percent) and Akron, Ohio (11.5 percent) .

For the 12-month period, the leading gainer was Phoenix, where prices were up 38.4 percent from a year earlier.

Are you saying that the Phoenix market is now giving back that 38.4% 2005 gain? If so, god help those poor souls who invested in ARMs at 2005 prices. Bankruptcy law in Phoenix is going to be very profitable in 2008.

 

[Beetlejuice]

I respect bagger's opinion on this, but I generally try to take anyone's opinion on a market with a grain of salt when they're invested in it.

I really don't have much of an incentive to artificially inflate my opinion of the R/E market here...I don't think anyone here will be buying any land from our group.

Actually, I agree with most of what bagger is saying about the PHX market. I'm in the mortgage financing arena (12 years in this market) and we are still seeing mild appreciation in many of the local zip codes. Inventory is at about a 44k level, and houses are sitting on the market for about 75 days or so on the average- but again it depends on area and depends on pricing as well.Much of the condo business that we are doing is apartment conversions- and that has become the "affordable" housing due to the 45% average appreciation (depending on your statistical source) that we had in the market through 2005. Yes, that market is saturated- but there are still buyers for the product even though it is taking longer to move the inventory.

Disclaimer- I am a real estate investor so I do have a somewhat optimistic view of our market- but I think my view is also factually based. Nobody knows what is going to happen, but frankly I think by October much of the excess inventory will be cleared out and we will return to some form of normalcy (i.e. 2003-2004 levels). Much of what is on the market is out of state (some in state) investor flipping or selling at the one year mark for capital gains, but there has been some panic selling due to a lot of gloom and doom being portrayed by the local media. It's really not panic over rising rates, it's much more panic by the move up buyer who is afraid they will not get enough equity out of their home to purchase something new "if" the market makes even a small correction.

Finally...the selling season in Phoenix, at least from the mortgage financing end, is from about April through October. The sales that bagger speaks of late in the year are often cash sales to the snow birds. We still have good months here and there over the "winter"- but the end of December through mid February is a fairly dry period in our market.

As for that land you are selling bagger.....you might be surprised as to who may be interested on this board.

 

[tommyGunZ]

excellent discussion fellas - love talking RE with people who know what they're talking about.

 

[Judge Smails]

Thousand Oaks, CA checking in.  Inventory is much higher, with multiple for sale signs on many streets in our neighborhood.  Asking prices (which were off the charts high) are coming down..

T.O. is highly insulated from any downturns given it's prime location.My parents live in Westlake (I went to Westlake High) and I am not sure where you are looking in terms of pricing but everything in my parents' neighborhood continues to sell quickly and for a good chunk of cash.

I'm not saying there won't be any temporary declines there, but in 10 years T.O. will be another 50%+ higher in terms of price.

Hey Bagger, I'm in 91361, really Westlake Village, but more people know T.O. 2 of my kids will be Westlake Warriors in the fall.Sort of agree with you about T.O. Prime location, huge/stable employer with Amgen, growing economy. But, many of these things were in place when I bought my home in '97. And I bought my home 20% off of highs a few years earlier. T.O. caught the downturn just like everyplace else. I don't believe anyplace is immune when the fundamentals (rising interest rates, excess inventory, no more speculation, etc) are what they are... I fully expect and welcome a 10% correction.

 

[Beetlejuice]

People need to take the number they think they "deserve" and get back in line with reality, which in all likelihood is a number closer to early to mid 2004 levels.

I agree 100%. What % of a discount is that, if we erase the gains of late 2004 and the entirety of '05?

But you aren't seeing a reversion to 2003 pricing levels for the market as a whole.

Not yet. Again, what is the % the Phoenix market is giving back if you say prices are falling to mid 2004 levels? Erasing 2005 gains entirely is quite a decline, and not at all what you were predicting months ago.According to this article, Phoenix led the nation in 2005 growth at 38%:

However, from the fourth quarter of 2005 to the first quarter of 2006, median prices nationwide fell from $225,300 to $217,900, a drop of 3.3 percent. It's the second consecutive quarter that prices showed a sequential decline; in the fourth quarter of 2005, prices fell 1 percent from the third quarter.

Many major metro areas showed slight declines, including Washington D.C. (down 2.4 percent), Los Angeles (down 0.8 percent) and Chicago (down 0.8 percent).

And some smaller metro areas fell precipitously, including Danville, Illinois (down 17.7 percent) and Akron, Ohio (11.5 percent) .

For the 12-month period, the leading gainer was Phoenix, where prices were up 38.4 percent from a year earlier.

Are you saying that the Phoenix market is now giving back that 38.4% 2005 gain? If so, god help those poor souls who invested in ARMs at 2005 prices. Bankruptcy law in Phoenix is going to be very profitable in 2008.

Gunz....most of what we write are 5/1 I/O ARMS. Very little 3/1 product. So the good news for God is he doesn't have his work cut out for him until 2010.

 

[tommyGunZ]

Gunz....most of what we write are 5/1 I/O ARMS. Very little 3/1 product. So the good news for God is he doesn't have his work cut out for him until 2010.

 

[_4_]

Thousand Oaks, CA checking in.  Inventory is much higher, with multiple for sale signs on many streets in our neighborhood.   Asking prices (which were off the charts high) are coming down..

T.O. is highly insulated from any downturns given it's prime location.My parents live in Westlake (I went to Westlake High) and I am not sure where you are looking in terms of pricing but everything in my parents' neighborhood continues to sell quickly and for a good chunk of cash.

I'm not saying there won't be any temporary declines there, but in 10 years T.O. will be another 50%+ higher in terms of price.

Hey Bagger, I'm in 91361, really Westlake Village, but more people know T.O. 2 of my kids will be Westlake Warriors in the fall.Sort of agree with you about T.O. Prime location, huge/stable employer with Amgen, growing economy. But, many of these things were in place when I bought my home in '97. And I bought my home 20% off of highs a few years earlier. T.O. caught the downturn just like everyplace else. I don't believe anyplace is immune when the fundamentals (rising interest rates, excess inventory, no more speculation, etc) are what they are... I fully expect and welcome a 10% correction.

Did you grow up in Westlake Village? A girl worked for me that did, and she told me that the Mayor's daughter graduated with her...and followed that up with a flourishing porn career. Real name: Jean Poremba Porn name: Candy Evans

 

[tommyGunZ]

Real Estate Snapshot

Here is a quick snapshot of some high level statistics on home prices for San Francisco, San Diego, and Phoenix (data is provided by the MLS).

San Francisco home prices rose by 18% from 6/2004 to 6/2005

San Diego home prices rose by < 1% from 6/2004 to 6/2005

Phoenix home prices rose by 61% from 6/2004 to 6/2005

If this is accurate (cut and pasted from a blog), and Phoenix is giving back 61%, WOW.

 

[tommyGunZ]

bottom line: will GunZ be able to afford a shanty in Diego or not?

wifey needs to get her raise on...

 

[-OZ-]

However, from the fourth quarter of 2005 to the first quarter of 2006, median prices nationwide fell from $225,300 to $217,900, a drop of 3.3 percent. It's the second consecutive quarter that prices showed a sequential decline; in the fourth quarter of 2005, prices fell 1 percent from the third quarter.

Many major metro areas showed slight declines, including Washington D.C. (down 2.4 percent), Los Angeles (down 0.8 percent) and Chicago (down 0.8 percent).

And some smaller metro areas fell precipitously, including Danville, Illinois (down 17.7 percent) and Akron, Ohio (11.5 percent) .

For the 12-month period, the leading gainer was Phoenix, where prices were up 38.4 percent from a year earlier.

Are you saying that the Phoenix market is now giving back that 38.4% 2005 gain? If so, god help those poor souls who invested in ARMs at 2005 prices. Bankruptcy law in Phoenix is going to be very profitable in 2008.

Not that it means much, but our assessment rose 42% from 2005 to 2006. We sold for a few thousand more than the assessment. I know properties that sold last year and are back on the market for about 30-40% higher than the previous sale price, and most houses are going quickly.

 

[El Floppo]

Anybody dealing with NYC?

I've been kinda/sorta looking for a while... and the market SEEMS like it's getting flooded with new construction and conversions, so I've been expecting a downturn (I'm no expert at all about Real Estate). However- every stinking apartment in the new buildings and conversions START at 1.2 mil. 1.2 MILLION DOLLARS. WTF?! I just don't understand it... and I don't understand who all these people are that can afford 1.2 mil apartments? And oh... did I mention- these are 1 and 2 bedroom Apartments of about 1,000 Sf.

Experts... who are these people? Will the market ever come down?

 

[_4_]

Anybody dealing with NYC?

I've been kinda/sorta looking for a while... and the market SEEMS like it's getting flooded with new construction and conversions, so I've been expecting a downturn (I'm no expert at all about Real Estate). However- every stinking apartment in the new buildings and conversions START at 1.2 mil. 1.2 MILLION DOLLARS. WTF?! I just don't understand it... and I don't understand who all these people are that can afford 1.2 mil apartments? And oh... did I mention- these are 1 and 2 bedroom Apartments of about 1,000 Sf.

Experts... who are these people? Will the market ever come down?

$1.2 mil Apartment conversions to Condo? That is the most ridiculous thing I have ever heard. Apartments were not built to condo specs in the first place. They throw some new carpet down, splash a little paint and call it a condo. In many instances insurance for those will be twice what is normal for the area, as they are going to fall victim to all the problems apartment buildings have, but no management company to pay for and do preventative maintenance.

 

[Brunswick]

Southeastern NC Golf Course Properties (Near Myrtle Beach)

Lots are selling like mad and new houses are being built but it is hard to sell an existing home. Go figure.

The lots are around 250,000 and house costs 250,000 plus but resales in the 375,000 to 450,000 range sit for months. And most are in the 2 to 6 year old range and comparable to what's being built. Smaller houses under $300,000 move pretty good.

Lots of money and retirees from NY, CT, PA, NJ and MD coming down. Thankfully the taxes are low and so is car insurance.

Cost of golf is going up big time too, have trouble finding a local rate under $40 and it was $25 to 30 last year. Courses are being closed to build houses and condos.

 

[dgreen]

In the DC area, VA has slowed down this year, pushing buyers to a couple of the cheaper MD suburbs.

Chart

 

[El Floppo]

Anybody dealing with NYC?

I've been kinda/sorta looking for a while... and the market SEEMS like it's getting flooded with new construction and conversions, so I've been expecting a downturn (I'm no expert at all about Real Estate). However- every stinking apartment in the new buildings and conversions START at 1.2 mil. 1.2 MILLION DOLLARS. WTF?! I just don't understand it... and I don't understand who all these people are that can afford 1.2 mil apartments? And oh... did I mention- these are 1 and 2 bedroom Apartments of about 1,000 Sf.

Experts... who are these people? Will the market ever come down?

$1.2 mil Apartment conversions to Condo? That is the most ridiculous thing I have ever heard. Apartments were not built to condo specs in the first place. They throw some new carpet down, splash a little paint and call it a condo. In many instances insurance for those will be twice what is normal for the area, as they are going to fall victim to all the problems apartment buildings have, but no management company to pay for and do preventative maintenance.

FWIW- the 'conversions' I'm talking about are pretty much gut renovations of the entire buildings- not "slap some carpet and paint down" situations.

 

[RKMoney]

Anybody dealing with NYC?

I've been kinda/sorta looking for a while... and the market SEEMS like it's getting flooded with new construction and conversions, so I've been expecting a downturn (I'm no expert at all about Real Estate). However- every stinking apartment in the new buildings and conversions START at 1.2 mil. 1.2 MILLION DOLLARS. WTF?! I just don't understand it... and I don't understand who all these people are that can afford 1.2 mil apartments? And oh... did I mention- these are 1 and 2 bedroom Apartments of about 1,000 Sf.

Experts... who are these people? Will the market ever come down?

I bought a place and only regret was I didn't buy another. Remember, space is limited in NYC and should never have problems but if you aren't going to throw at least a mil down you can't play in that market.

 

[El Floppo]

Anybody dealing with NYC?

I've been kinda/sorta looking for a while... and the market SEEMS like it's getting flooded with new construction and conversions, so I've been expecting a downturn (I'm no expert at all about Real Estate). However- every stinking apartment in the new buildings and conversions START at 1.2 mil. 1.2 MILLION DOLLARS. WTF?! I just don't understand it... and I don't understand who all these people are that can afford 1.2 mil apartments? And oh... did I mention- these are 1 and 2 bedroom Apartments of about 1,000 Sf.

Experts... who are these people? Will the market ever come down?

I bought a place and only regret was I didn't buy another. Remember, space is limited in NYC and should never have problems but if you aren't going to throw at least a mil down you can't play in that market.

Space is limited, yeah- but they're adding a ton of units to that space. Am I wrong to think that once all of these things get finished, and stand empty for a bit (please god) that the price per SF will drop? Or do you think that it's just NYC so it'll just keep going up?

 

[RKMoney]

Anybody dealing with NYC?

I've been kinda/sorta looking for a while... and the market SEEMS like it's getting flooded with new construction and conversions, so I've been expecting a downturn (I'm no expert at all about Real Estate). However- every stinking apartment in the new buildings and conversions START at 1.2 mil. 1.2 MILLION DOLLARS. WTF?! I just don't understand it... and I don't understand who all these people are that can afford 1.2 mil apartments? And oh... did I mention- these are 1 and 2 bedroom Apartments of about 1,000 Sf.

Experts... who are these people? Will the market ever come down?

I bought a place and only regret was I didn't buy another. Remember, space is limited in NYC and should never have problems but if you aren't going to throw at least a mil down you can't play in that market.

Space is limited, yeah- but they're adding a ton of units to that space. Am I wrong to think that once all of these things get finished, and stand empty for a bit (please god) that the price per SF will drop? Or do you think that it's just NYC so it'll just keep going up?

No freaking way. People are dying to move in and I personally know places out on LIC are being bought around that price (for slightly more space).One of the main reasons why I moved (kept and rent out place in NY) was because I couldn't get a house for more than 2sqft for under 1.2m out in the burbs with a solid school district.

That's why you see a lot of co-op. Cheaper but you don't really own it, you own shares of it.

 

[Gopher State]

Minneapolis MN The new house I purchased for $450.000,00 one year ago, now a new one behind my house, same model, size etc., just sold for $400,000.00 it's a real buyers market in the Twin Cities.

 

[bentley]

Lots of places for sale in my neighborhood. I blame it on the #######s in the HOA that can't get their #### together.

 

[bostonfred]

I respect bagger's opinion on this, but I generally try to take anyone's opinion on a market with a grain of salt when they're invested in it.

I really don't have much of an incentive to artificially inflate my opinion of the R/E market here...I don't think anyone here will be buying any land from our group.

I'm not saying you do, and I seriously respect your opinions on this. I just think that when you have skin in the game, you tend to unconciously believe the things that are most favorable to your position. People who own Alexander don't think Hutchinson was that important. People who own Sirius Radio think that they're going to bounce back. People who work in real estate tend to think the market's going to be fine. It's just how things work.

 

[Jeff Pasquino]

Baltimore metro: inventory in May (haven't seen June numbers yet) was double that of May 2005 and median selling price was down $10,000 from a year ago. My small subdivision of about 85 homes has five on the market, one since before Christmas, no sales since the first one was listed. IMO, all five sellers have unrealistic asking prices; it's like everybody still thinks you can slap any price you want on your house and you'll get it.

And my biggest builder (I'm in floorcovering) is getting ready for substantial layoffs because of soft demand.

Many priced in last year's appreciation to list prices now.

Reality is setting in.

Still - it is "up" overall since last year, just not 20% like it has been in Maryland YOY.

 

[Jeff Pasquino]

Your stats on Phoenix are incorrect. It is about 44k right now.

I heard it was 50 if you included unsold new inventory - but you would know more than me.

Looking at YOY means nothing as 2005 was an anomoly. Phoenix is leveling off around 2004 levels (all time high before the 2005 frenzy)

What was the % gain in Phoenix in '05? 15%? 20+%? You say things are leveling off to 2004 levels - does that mean that 2005 gains have been given back? That's quite a hit considering inventory is still rising.

experts fully expect the majority of inventory to be burned through by Q1 2007.

Really? Spring is by far the most active season for RE sales. Perhaps you and the experts are correct, and you're going to see a mad rush of sales in the summer, fall and winter, but traditionally March thru May are the "high" months in terms of number of sales. Inventories generally rise throughout the remainder of the year historically.

Bottom line, most analysts here understand that this buyers market is a temporary phenomenon until we get through the excess inventory created through many investors who bought in 2005. There is not a shift in market fundamentals but rather an anomoly that accounts for only about 7 months of supply (we are averaging about 6,500 sales per month...44k/6.5k = 6.76).

No buying this - this sounds like something cut and pasted from an NAR newsletter. REITS have been crushed the last 6 months - all the statistics point to market weakness and declining prices in the near future. Homebuilder confidence is half of what it was last year. As usual, we differ in opinion on this subject. Let's check back in a few months and discuss.

I'll try to answer these quickly here...If you include new unsold home inventory that might get close to 50k, but it would depend how you classify that I bet, and it would take you being real aggressive defining inventory to get you from 44 to 50.

2006 prices are up about 25% from 2005. The levels I was talking about were permits and housing growth.

Arizona doesn't have a strong spring and then a quiet rest of the year. It is actually quite strong in the fall with so many winter visitors buying homes. Wherever you heard that rule of thumb from is just flat out incorrect.

Not sure what this has to do with REITs. REITs are commercial or apartment real estate. We're talking residential construction here. That's fine if you "don't want to buy it" but the facts are that we have 44k of inventory and our sales pace is 6,500 homes per month. That is what all homebuilders and land developers use to estimate if there is softness or strength in a market. While 44k sounds bad, inventory are still less than a year, which is still very strong.

However, I guess that doesn't mean as much as "homebuilder confidence" whatever that is.

The Arizona market is anything but weak, although it is going through a short term period of excess inventory and flattening out appreciation from prior years. This is something I talked about last year when we had this conversation.

Disagree with you on that one.Classic definition of a stable market == 6 months of inventory. <6, seller's market. >6, buyer's market (give or take 1-2 months).

 

[mojorizin]

St. Louis has slowed down considerably. The pendulum has swung more towards the middle now, actually favoring buyers more. Good thing, because I'm starting to get sick of the mom n' pop real estate places that are popping up everywhere in my area.

If you're looking to move to St. Louis, it's looking pretty favorable for you. Lots of homes for sale, very saturated market, and lots of realtors looking for business. My mom's trying to sell her house and she's had to whack $6k off the listing price because the damn thing just won't sell. Too many tire-kickers. Never seen it before in my life.

Construction still booming on NW side (IL) where I live. Folks in StL sick of overpaying for 1/2 the house they'd get over here for an extra 20 minute drive. Used to live on the fringes of civilization and now I'm the little guy in the middle of suburban sprawl.