Desert_Power
Footballguy
The main difference is that consumer balance sheets are much stronger and there isn't some huge runup in leverage underpinning it. The latter is certainly the case in other markets (*cough* crypto), but hard to see it here. Banks aren't making no documentation loans and somehow getting the modern GSEs to buy them.Low rates, extra cash, no inventory, can't build new houses due to lumber costs and lack of labor, people selling small homes in places like SF, SEA, LA, SD, NY etc taking those profits and outbidding people in places like Boise, Portland, Denver etc. The 2007-2008 bubble was predictable. Guys like @RedmondLonghorn and I were screaming about the impending bubble, it was obvious. So obvious. Made the most money in my life shorting it in 2007. But I ain't shorting this one and I don't see what catalyst is out there to pop it.
We just haven't built enough houses for a while now and a lot of the population saved an incredible percentage of their income during covid.