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How's your housing market? (4 Viewers)

Low rates, extra cash, no inventory, can't build new houses due to lumber costs and lack of labor, people selling small homes in places like SF, SEA, LA, SD, NY etc taking those profits and outbidding people in places like Boise, Portland, Denver etc.  The 2007-2008 bubble was predictable.  Guys like @RedmondLonghorn and I were screaming about the impending bubble, it was obvious.  So obvious.  Made the most money in my life shorting it in 2007.  But I ain't shorting this one and I don't see what catalyst is out there to pop it.  
The main difference is that consumer balance sheets are much stronger and there isn't some huge runup in leverage underpinning it. The latter is certainly the case in other markets (*cough* crypto), but hard to see it here. Banks aren't making no documentation loans and somehow getting the modern GSEs to buy them.

We just haven't built enough houses for a while now and a lot of the population saved an incredible percentage of their income during covid.

 
Is this another bubble situation?  How are people affording these prices?  Just selling/upgrading so it's all relative?  Spending all that government cheese being doled out over the last year? 
No.  Supply and demand.

bubble - used to refer to a significant, usually rapid, increase in asset prices that is soon followed by a collapse in prices and typically arises from speculation or enthusiasm rather than intrinsic increases in value.

It's supply and demand, not speculation or enthusiasm, which was rampant in 2006.

ETA: This really feels like the early '80's where everything went up a ton and never came back down. Price of everything is going nuts right now.

 
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Apple just opened a new office in my area and look to employ 1,000 people to start, then ramp up tp 3,000 total. A 2019 rebuilt 2 story 2,000 sqft house 3 doors down from me hit the market this week for $2.1mil. The competition among tech industry people to nab nice family homes in my hood is going to be insane.

 
Apple just opened a new office in my area and look to employ 1,000 people to start, then ramp up tp 3,000 total. A 2019 rebuilt 2 story 2,000 sqft house 3 doors down from me hit the market this week for $2.1mil. The competition among tech industry people to nab nice family homes in my hood is going to be insane.
Someone offers me 7 figures for my house, my family and I will be living in a van down by the river before sundown.

 
No.  Supply and demand.

bubble - used to refer to a significant, usually rapid, increase in asset prices that is soon followed by a collapse in prices and typically arises from speculation or enthusiasm rather than intrinsic increases in value.

It's supply and demand, not speculation or enthusiasm, which was rampant in 2006.

ETA: This really feels like the early '80's where everything went up a ton and never came back down. Price of everything is going nuts right now.


This is why I'm not selling. We're about to refinance into a 15 year loan. Hope to have it paid off in 10. Gonna buy some land and build an epic house when the time is right and supplies are more plentiful. 

 
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This is why I'm not selling. We're about to refinance into a 15 year loan. Hope to have it paid off in 10. Gonna buy some land and build an epic house when the time is right and supplied are more plentiful. 
I mean what if this is the new normal?  What if single family homes simply get out of reach and we need as a society to migrate to more high rise apartments for the materials efficiency?  There are fewer people being born now, so the push could easily go the other way with less demand, but the supply issues might be the defining crisis of this century.  

 
I mean what if this is the new normal?  What if single family homes simply get out of reach and we need as a society to migrate to more high rise apartments for the materials efficiency?  There are fewer people being born now, so the push could easily go the other way with less demand, but the supply issues might be the defining crisis of this century.  
That’s what I’m afraid of and why I’m not selling. Sure, I can make a boatload of money selling my house. But then what I’ll be out there competing with everybody else and every month that goes by my purchasing power goes down. 

I think the materials will come back down to reasonable prices and even get cheaper but not so sure about the housing.

We’re gonna just hold on tight. 

 
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Another thing that's tangential to baby boomers staying in their homes until they pass is that some of those baby boomers might be willing to move into smaller structures on the premises of the family home while the next generation occupies that original single family structure.  Both would likely require raw materials to a) construct a new dwelling and b) rennovate the original sfh.

 
Eh... I dunno.  I think it would be easier to transition to other building materials rather than try and change the psyche of the American people to get them to buy into higher density living, especially with families. 
What are you going to pick to wire up houses, and fit air conditioning systems with?  Platinum?  

 
Another thing that's tangential to baby boomers staying in their homes until they pass is that some of those baby boomers might be willing to move into smaller structures on the premises of the family home while the next generation occupies that original single family structure.  Both would likely require raw materials to a) construct a new dwelling and b) rennovate the original sfh.
I just got a text from a buddy last night looking for a caretaker for his 90 year old father whom is staying in the family house. 
 

My wife and I have discussed that unless one of us gets Alzheimer’s, we’ll never go into a home. If I ever got dementia bad I would take myself out. We have experience with that and I won’t subject her or my kids to that. 

 
Another thing that's tangential to baby boomers staying in their homes until they pass is that some of those baby boomers might be willing to move into smaller structures on the premises of the family home while the next generation occupies that original single family structure.  Both would likely require raw materials to a) construct a new dwelling and b) rennovate the original sfh.
Or people in this country just start piling in with eachother like virtually everywhere else on the planet does.  

We discussed this in the mortgage thread, one big push here is older people not going to retirement homes as much, the reasons there rank from preference to simply living longer, to having no money in which to do so.  

I'm in one of those communities where every day I'm surrounded by old people living in 4 bedroom homes, alone, and they can barely get to the curb for the mail.  Why do this to yourself?

 
Or people in this country just start piling in with eachother like virtually everywhere else on the planet does.  

We discussed this in the mortgage thread, one big push here is older people not going to retirement homes as much, the reasons there rank from preference to simply living longer, to having no money in which to do so.  

I'm in one of those communities where every day I'm surrounded by old people living in 4 bedroom homes, alone, and they can barely get to the curb for the mail.  Why do this to yourself?
Probably because they have lived there for decades and would rather die in their home rather than some strange place they don’t recognize. Their homes are probably paid off. 
 

I mean as long as you can live on the main level, what’s the incentive to move? 

 
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Or people in this country just start piling in with eachother like virtually everywhere else on the planet does.  
I see this more and more. Here in the DMV you see it in giant 4 and 5 bedroom homes, multiple families crammed into one place with a half dozen cars outside. 
 

Honestly, it makes a ton of sense. You can all pool your resources and share utilities. I would strangle everyone in the home but :shrug:  

 
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I know more and more families building ADUs on their property. Some are even abandoning their garages. Policymakers are leaning on private property owners to help with the shortage and helping cut red tape to do so (I'm sure there's plenty of red tape still). And this is not some weird hippy community. These are nice parts of the Bay Area where homes sell for $1,000/sf. I know an otherwise "regular" home - decently sized at 3,300 sf, that sold a couple weeks back for $4.2 million. It was listed for $3 million. It makes sense, investment-wise, to put a couple hundred grand into an ADU.

 
I see this more and more. Here in the DMV you see it in giant 4 and 5 bedroom homes, multiple families crammed into one place with a half dozen cars outside. 
 

Honestly, it makes a ton of sense. You can all pool your resources and share utilities. I would strangle everyone in the home but :shrug:  
My grandpa was a never go to a home guy. He passed away and had a simple life that was lacking in a lot of things that would have improved his living circumstances. My grandma is still kicking and will never move. She lives off of SS and a small pension and gets by on a strict budget that I'm sure is being eaten away by the COLA every year. She lives in the Bay Area in like a 1200sf 3/1 that cost 52K way back when. She has a dead beat son and DIL but that's another story that live in and are useless, but my grandma could live the life she never thought she could have if she sold and went into a home. It would be safer(handicap accessible everything), could have meals prepped for her, maid service, could meet new people and enjoy other peoples company etc. She is lonely and imo that alone would mean the world to her for everyday quality of life.

Sadly the best situation would be the one described above with her moving in with family but my my mom is almost in worse health than grandma so my dad is stretched thin as it is, and we live hours away and don't have the time to take care of her or the space since we could barely afford a smaller starter house to hold our starting family.

There is no winning it feels like. One thing that I believe that will change in the coming generations is that technology, especially gaming, will fend off loneliness to a degree as it allows so much more human interaction without needing direct access. It's so easy to shoot the #### and talk life with friends once or twice a month while gaming than dedicating time to talk on the phone. 

TLDR: Grandma will never move, but should go to a home and cash in her HCOLA house to live the better (and safer) life she has never been able to afford. She would gain more friends as well. 

 
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Lots of good posts in here today.

I have a pending listing now of a sweet, 90 yr old lady who doesn't want to live alone any longer and is moving into assisted living.

I know of two families that have converted above garage space into second masters to retire in while a kid raises a young family in the rest.

Many ADU's are being built in our area.

A lot of older boomers are downsizing into smaller homes.

I just traded up from 2800 to 4000 sq ft. Daughter just had divorce finalized and is getting career going again. Basement is 1950 sq ft, 4 bed, and is just like her own place. She can't afford the 1500-2000 rents right now and will be working on getting her masters so she can buy a place in 2-3 years.  Two Gdaughters are here 50% of the time, so we help out baby sitting.  Also have a pool for the first time. Best thing ever.   There is a lot more of this generational type of housing going on these days.

 
25-50 offers day one of listings, selling prices $50k-$150 over list, cash offer, waive inspection. Welcome to Austin.

it's been commonly reported 150 people per day move to Austin over the past 20 years. Latest numbers which cover mid-2019 to mid-2020 have it pegged at 184/day.

 
25-50 offers day one of listings, selling prices $50k-$150 over list, cash offer, waive inspection. Welcome to Austin.

it's been commonly reported 150 people per day move to Austin over the past 20 years. Latest numbers which cover mid-2019 to mid-2020 have it pegged at 184/day.
What's the average cost per square feet for Austin?

 
NE Ohio - AKA Eastern Burbs of Cleveland

Put up a "coming soon" for May 14th less than 24 hours ago with pictures of the outside... (no inside pictures yet but it will show well - recently updated kitchen etc) so 9 days in advance

8 showings booked for that Friday the 14th with 2 more for the weekend - 

Realtor told us similar house sold this past weekend  - they had 40+ showings in the 1st weekend and 13 offers to go through by Sunday Night. 

 
Comment then a question about taxes.

I put one of my rental properties up for sale this past saturday evening.  Listed 104,900.  It was under contract monday morning for 110,500.  I dont have to help with closing costs, and they arent even doing a housing inspection.   Was crazy.  Multiple offers.

Side question about the capital gains tax.  My tax guy mentioned I might not have capital gains tax.  I bought the property almost 4 years ago for 70 grand.   After fees and whatnot I will show about a 25 grand profit on the sale for the 2021 tax year.

I am not in a high tax bracket, so would my tax bracket determine whether or not I pay the capital gains here?

 
Comment then a question about taxes.

I put one of my rental properties up for sale this past saturday evening.  Listed 104,900.  It was under contract monday morning for 110,500.  I dont have to help with closing costs, and they arent even doing a housing inspection.   Was crazy.  Multiple offers.

Side question about the capital gains tax.  My tax guy mentioned I might not have capital gains tax.  I bought the property almost 4 years ago for 70 grand.   After fees and whatnot I will show about a 25 grand profit on the sale for the 2021 tax year.

I am not in a high tax bracket, so would my tax bracket determine whether or not I pay the capital gains here?
I think you don't pay taxes on the first $250k above your purchase price as a single filer, and $500k jointly. You can also write off a lot of stuff, including home improvements and costs associated with selling your home. I'm not a CPA though so probably want to check with an expert.

 
I think you don't pay taxes on the first $250k above your purchase price as a single filer, and $500k jointly. You can also write off a lot of stuff, including home improvements and costs associated with selling your home. I'm not a CPA though so probably want to check with an expert.
Pretty sure thats not accurate for a rental property.

 
Comment then a question about taxes.

I put one of my rental properties up for sale this past saturday evening.  Listed 104,900.  It was under contract monday morning for 110,500.  I dont have to help with closing costs, and they arent even doing a housing inspection.   Was crazy.  Multiple offers.

Side question about the capital gains tax.  My tax guy mentioned I might not have capital gains tax.  I bought the property almost 4 years ago for 70 grand.   After fees and whatnot I will show about a 25 grand profit on the sale for the 2021 tax year.

I am not in a high tax bracket, so would my tax bracket determine whether or not I pay the capital gains here?
Cap Gains is determined by your income.  $0-$80,800 (Married Filing Jointly) in income pays zero on Capital Gains for example.   Not a tax guy though, just my understanding.

 
Cap Gains is determined by your income.  $0-$80,800 (Married Filing Jointly) in income pays zero on Capital Gains for example.   Not a tax guy though, just my understanding.
I saw that also.

Now the question where I am sure the answer is yes, but is the income from the rental property sale included in the income?

 
I saw that also.

Now the question where I am sure the answer is yes, but is the income from the rental property sale included in the income?
The income shouldn’t have anything to do with that as I am assuming you already filed the rental income as income. If not, then you are evading taxes.

 
I think you don't pay taxes on the first $250k above your purchase price as a single filer, and $500k jointly. You can also write off a lot of stuff, including home improvements and costs associated with selling your home. I'm not a CPA though so probably want to check with an expert.
That just made me think  of something...as I remember reading that same statement somewhere.

In my situation, we built our house and technically "sold" it to ourselves (it was an LLC during the building process). The price showing up in the property records is actually the amount of my mortgage and not a true reflection of our cost to build. The neighboring unit (we built a 2-unit townhome) sold for approximately 2.5x of what my mortgage is and is what my unit would have sold for on the open market. 

So if my unit shows up as $X as the purchase price, cost $Y to build and sells for $Z, I wonder how much I am going to be on the hook for taxes? Not necessarily a question (unless someone here knows the answer), it just made me think about it. 

 
That just made me think  of something...as I remember reading that same statement somewhere.

In my situation, we built our house and technically "sold" it to ourselves (it was an LLC during the building process). The price showing up in the property records is actually the amount of my mortgage and not a true reflection of our cost to build. The neighboring unit (we built a 2-unit townhome) sold for approximately 2.5x of what my mortgage is and is what my unit would have sold for on the open market. 

So if my unit shows up as $X as the purchase price, cost $Y to build and sells for $Z, I wonder how much I am going to be on the hook for taxes? Not necessarily a question (unless someone here knows the answer), it just made me think about it. 
Is it your primary residence?

 
That just made me think  of something...as I remember reading that same statement somewhere.

In my situation, we built our house and technically "sold" it to ourselves (it was an LLC during the building process). The price showing up in the property records is actually the amount of my mortgage and not a true reflection of our cost to build. The neighboring unit (we built a 2-unit townhome) sold for approximately 2.5x of what my mortgage is and is what my unit would have sold for on the open market. 

So if my unit shows up as $X as the purchase price, cost $Y to build and sells for $Z, I wonder how much I am going to be on the hook for taxes? Not necessarily a question (unless someone here knows the answer), it just made me think about it. 
Tricky situation perhaps. May depend in part on what state you live in? Maybe an error with your county?  Or is the basis of your home the price you sold to yourself? You probably want the recorded value to be a true reflection of the market cost. But that could have challenges. I'm guessing in your state, your property taxes are based on the value of your home at time of purchase (that's the case in CA and then increases are capped annually if increases are warranted). If you changed your estimated value, you may owe back taxes?

Your purchase price matching your mortgage is odd. I think it's rare for folks to have a mortgage that represents 100% value of the property. You mention the cost to build. What about the value of the land? 

This scenario might be good for you, but the delta may hurt you at time of sale, especially if you're talking about hundreds of thousands of dollars of value here.

 
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That just made me think  of something...as I remember reading that same statement somewhere.

In my situation, we built our house and technically "sold" it to ourselves (it was an LLC during the building process). The price showing up in the property records is actually the amount of my mortgage and not a true reflection of our cost to build. The neighboring unit (we built a 2-unit townhome) sold for approximately 2.5x of what my mortgage is and is what my unit would have sold for on the open market. 

So if my unit shows up as $X as the purchase price, cost $Y to build and sells for $Z, I wonder how much I am going to be on the hook for taxes? Not necessarily a question (unless someone here knows the answer), it just made me think about it. 
It should simply be Z-Y. I can’t tell if Y is more than X (mortgage) or vice versa. I would just calculate it as the proper amount and you should have documentation to support it if it ever comes back.

I wouldn’t recommend trying to game the system. I got a letter from the IRS last year that scared the bejeezus out of me. It was a bill for $25k. I had to do a double take and I was like WTF did I do since I always use TT. Well, after carefully going through everything there was a small amount of inherited stock of about $20k that I sold to move into our accounts. They put the cost basis as $0 as if I got the stock for free. Well, long story short after I sent all of the documentation they told me I had a credit of $500 coming back to me. I have yet to receive it of course and I’ll be honest, I know my taxes were correct so I have no clue why I’m getting money back but I just want it done.

Anyway, the reason why I’d be very careful and do it properly (I’m not assuming you want to cheat) is that the interest and fees came out as 25-30% of what I supposedly owe. Given Biden and team are adding more money for tax auditing, which I’m 100% in agreement with because I pay my fair share, just be careful. If there was a $200k “accident” and it took a year or two, I wouldn’t be surprised to see a $50-75k penalty added on.

 
Tricky situation perhaps. May depend in part on what state you live in? Maybe an error with your county?  Or is the basis of your home the price you sold to yourself? You probably want the recorded value to be a true reflection of the market cost. But that could have challenges. I'm guessing in your state, your property taxes are based on the value of your home at time of purchase (that's the case in CA and then increases are capped annually if increases are warranted). If you changed your estimated value, you may owe back taxes?

Your purchase price matching your mortgage is odd. I think it's rare for folks to have a mortgage that represents 100% value of the property. You mention the cost to build. What about the value of the land? 

This scenario might be good for you, but the delta may hurt you at time of sale, especially if you're talking about hundreds of thousands of dollars of value here.
Some good questions there. I'm in Florida, specifically Miami-Dade County. Looking at my 2020 property tax bill, it was based on assessed value (and matches the assessed value of the adjoining unit that sold at full price), not the "sold" price indicated in the property records. 

In reality, my mortgage doesn't represent the full value of the property if you were to assume that the two units are valued similarly (which they should be). 

From a property tax perspective, I'm fine. I'm paying based on the assessed value. But when I go to sell the house, the tax implications will show a different story. To your point, I may need to look at getting the "sale price" adjusted. Just not sure where to start. 

 
It should simply be Z-Y. I can’t tell if Y is more than X (mortgage) or vice versa. I would just calculate it as the proper amount and you should have documentation to support it if it ever comes back.

I wouldn’t recommend trying to game the system. I got a letter from the IRS last year that scared the bejeezus out of me. It was a bill for $25k. I had to do a double take and I was like WTF did I do since I always use TT. Well, after carefully going through everything there was a small amount of inherited stock of about $20k that I sold to move into our accounts. They put the cost basis as $0 as if I got the stock for free. Well, long story short after I sent all of the documentation they told me I had a credit of $500 coming back to me. I have yet to receive it of course and I’ll be honest, I know my taxes were correct so I have no clue why I’m getting money back but I just want it done.

Anyway, the reason why I’d be very careful and do it properly (I’m not assuming you want to cheat) is that the interest and fees came out as 25-30% of what I supposedly owe. Given Biden and team are adding more money for tax auditing, which I’m 100% in agreement with because I pay my fair share, just be careful. If there was a $200k “accident” and it took a year or two, I wouldn’t be surprised to see a $50-75k penalty added on.
Not trying to game the system at all because I certainly don't want any surprises.

For simplicity sake, let's say my mortgage is $200k, the cost to build was $350k and the value of the home is $525k. That's pretty much the ratios. 

As I mentioned in my last post, the assessed value for property tax purposes is correct so I'm paying the right amount of property tax.

My concern is that when I sell the home, it's going to appear that I "purchased" it for $200k (using above numbers) when in reality, I paid $350k to build and that number should be my cost basis, not the $200k. If I sold right now (using actual numbers) I would be above the $500k capital gains exclusion allowance for filing jointly and would have to pay capital gains on the difference. I just want to make sure the cost basis is accurate or the amount subject to capital gains will be considerably more. 

I'm just trying to figure out what is needed to change the cost basis of the home, assuming that for tax purposes, it comes from the property records. Maybe I'm off base on that....

Sorry for taking this off-topic. 

BTW, our housing marketing is doing quite well also. Maybe not to the level of some of what I am reading elsewhere in the post, but Miami has been hot for a couple years. Especially for single-family homes. Condos, which there are a ton of, have been a little soft. 

 
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Not trying to game the system at all because I certainly don't want any surprises.

For simplicity sake, let's say my mortgage is $200k, the cost to build was $350k and the value of the home is $525k. That's pretty much the ratios. 

As I mentioned in my last post, the assessed value for property tax purposes is correct so I'm paying the right amount of property tax.

My concern is that when I sell the home, it's going to appear that I "purchased" it for $200k (using above numbers) when in reality, I paid $350k to build and that number should be my cost basis, not the $200k. If I sold right now (using actual numbers) I would be above the $500k capital gains exclusion allowance for filing jointly and would have to pay capital gains on the difference. I just want to make sure the cost basis is accurate or the amount subject to capital gains will be considerably more. 

I'm just trying to figure out what is needed to change the cost basis of the home, assuming that for tax purposes, it comes from the property records. Maybe I'm off base on that....

Sorry for taking this off-topic. 

BTW, our housing marketing is doing quite well also. Maybe not to the level of some of what I am reading elsewhere in the post, but Miami has been hot for a couple years. Especially for single-family homes. Condos, which there are a ton of, have been a little soft. 
I think the cost basis is what you enter in on the tax form. The IRS likely isn’t accessing all the home property records of every county in the US. I’d think if you had all the paperwork showing the cost of building that you’d be absolutely fine using that as your cost basis. That’s what I did on our last house but it didn’t exceed the $500k cap. If you get audited you have everything you need to show that you paid $X you shouldn’t have an issue just because the county had nothing else to enter besides the mortgage amount, which is meaningless.

Honestly, this is one of those areas where I’d love to see some auditing done because as a guy who’s never cheated on his taxes, I’m sure that a lot of people do cheat. It sucks to know that there’s a billionaire out there that I’m sure paid less than I will for 2020.

 
So we put our So-Cal home up on Thursday of last week. Had 1 showing Friday, 10 Saturday and 3 on Sunday (Mother’s Day killed showings).  List at above top of the market and got 2 offers Sunday morning for 15k over both with rent backs (Was a contingency with our sale as we have to find a new home).  We issued counters today.  
 

GD this market is moving quick. 

 
So we put our So-Cal home up on Thursday of last week. Had 1 showing Friday, 10 Saturday and 3 on Sunday (Mother’s Day killed showings).  List at above top of the market and got 2 offers Sunday morning for 15k over both with rent backs (Was a contingency with our sale as we have to find a new home).  We issued counters today.  
 

GD this market is moving quick. 
Where in SoCal? If our kids were older I think I could convince my wife now was the time to sell, but as we have no interest in leaving the area anytime soon, just not feasible.

 
Where in SoCal? If our kids were older I think I could convince my wife now was the time to sell, but as we have no interest in leaving the area anytime soon, just not feasible.
Temecula.  Moving out of the area would be ideal for us too but we aren’t. Gonna try and find something here which is why we are requiring the rent back. 
We just got 4 showings requests this morning for today, a Tuesday.  SMH. 

 
Temecula.  Moving out of the area would be ideal for us too but we aren’t. Gonna try and find something here which is why we are requiring the rent back. 
We just got 4 showings requests this morning for today, a Tuesday.  SMH. 
Good luck with all of that. For us (Orange/Yorba Linda area), rent would be quite a bit more than our current mortgage, so while cashing out sounds good, it's just doesn't make sense for us.

 
Good luck with all of that. For us (Orange/Yorba Linda area), rent would be quite a bit more than our current mortgage, so while cashing out sounds good, it's just doesn't make sense for us.
Same here. The rent backs we’re  requiring in our selling are for just a few months to give us time to find a new place. And the dollar amounts are in line with our current mortgage. There’s a risk to it because if we don’t find a new home to buy we’re in a bad spot. But as they say no risk it no biscuit.  😰

 
NE Ohio - House hti the market yesterday   -

Two offers, and two more saying they may make an offer and are having 2nd showings today;

Overall  - 26 showings ( not including 2nd showings) scheduled for yesterday and today;  

They hype is crazy 

 
To demonstrate how out of whack the supply situation is, I got a few statistics for Denver for April a few days ago, keep in mind the # of listings this time last year was still well below average for the 5 years prior:

# of active listings in April 2020: 6,855

# of active listings in April 2021: 2,594 (down 62%!)

Median Days on Market: 4!

Median close price: 526,000 (up 20% YOY!)

Close price/list price: 104.6%

 
Apropos of nothing

here in suburban south Florida a big HOA is being developed.  It’s well over half way built at this point.  They hung a sign out front ~ 2 years ago “homes from the 300’s”.   
 

new sign went up last week.  “Homes from the 500’s”

 

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