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How's your housing market? (2 Viewers)

eoMMan said:
What kind of $/sq ft are you guys seeing in your area?
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In the neighborhood, around $150. Three homes in the neighborhood sold in the past month. Most recent was 3500' for just over $500k

 I bought 5 years ago for $95. Decent houses, great schools but the cost of living here is cheap. 

 
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flapgreen said:
Bought our second home in one of the surrounding counties of Nashville in the suburbs a little over 2 years ago for 350. Just put up for sale and got an offer for 510 today.  Crazy times 
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Interesting article I came across on the declining affordability of housing.  Lists the top 10 most affordable and top 10 least affordable counties in the country to live in, based on income. Oddest thing. The top 10 least affordable counties in the country to live in, as you would expect, are all in New York and California, except the one county in Tennessee we just sold our home in. I really don't get it. 

https://www.cbsnews.com/news/housing-real-estate-home-buying-affordability/?ftag=CNM-00-10aab6a&linkId=122203567&fbclid=IwAR31POZbc1nRwKJRq3kN0LNEYjJWaoPaY_X6P4253k3_DTYUB7-pIyO083k#app

10 least affordable counties in U.S.

Kings County (Brooklyn), New York, 100.8% of annualized weekly wages needed to buy a home

Marin County, California (outside San Francisco), 81.4%

Santa Cruz County, California, 76.2%

Queens County, New York, 68.7% 

Monterey County, California (outside San Francisco), 65.9%

Nassau County, New York, 63%

San Luis Obispo County, California, 62.4%

Sumner County, Tennessee, 62.1%

Orange County, California, 59.2%

Napa County, California, 59.1%

 
SF should be becoming much more affordable soon. I just saw an article that a poll of SF residents said 40% of them are planning on leaving in the next couple of years. 

 
-OZ- said:
In the neighborhood, around $150. Three homes in the neighborhood sold in the past month. Most recent was 3500' for just over $500k

 I bought 5 years ago for $95. Decent houses, great schools but the cost of living here is cheap. 
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About the same here - bought my house at $85/sqft 5 years ago.  Now probably 110.  Not moving, so don't care and don't want the increased taxes.  Top 2% high school in the US, so a good place to be.  Housing is still crazy here - 30+ offers on houses as soon as they go up for sale, etc.  

Beach place went for $700+/sqft., but the value there is the sand, not the house.  Good to see I got Cali prices in Alabama, though!   :P

 
joey said:
It’s crazy here…

https://www.realtor.com/realestateandhomes-search/Mill-Valley_CA/overview

ETA: for those who don’t want to click the link: $921/sqft median in Mill Valley CA. Glad I bought 17 years ago. Sheesh
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flapgreen said:
10 least affordable counties in U.S.

Marin County, California (outside San Francisco), 81.4%
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Chadstroma said:
SF should be becoming much more affordable soon. I just saw an article that a poll of SF residents said 40% of them are planning on leaving in the next couple of years. 
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All of this.  That's why we finally left after 25 years in SF and Marin.  I got tired of renting, and even in Novato (one of the most "affordable" parts of the Bay Area) I just couldn't justify the costs even if I could afford it.  

Even in the crazy market up here in Eugene we were able to get a place for $300/sf.  Meanwhile the house we rented back in Novato sold in 6 days for $688/sf.

 
SFBayDuck said:
All of this.  That's why we finally left after 25 years in SF and Marin.  I got tired of renting, and even in Novato (one of the most "affordable" parts of the Bay Area) I just couldn't justify the costs even if I could afford it.  

Even in the crazy market up here in Eugene we were able to get a place for $300/sf.  Meanwhile the house we rented back in Novato sold in 6 days for $688/sf.
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I am very bearish on a lot of large cities future real estate values while I think their surrounding areas will likely flourish. 

Many are seeing major issues related to crime, budgets and standard of living declines. Coupled with the huge increase in options to remote work for typically higher income earners. I noted these before and I think the trend is bearing out. Though some work places are opting to return to physical locations it is undeniable that many are not. Heck, we are pretty much 'back to normal' right now in Illinois with very little restrictions etc and the Metra stations (commuter trains into the city from suburbs) are still a total ghost area. One station nearby me before the pandemic would regularly be full by about 80% or so- guessing a couple hundred vehicles. Now, literally like 10 cars total. Many large US cities have seen huge increases in crime rates and the stories I have heard for places like SF and LA with homelessness, open drug use, etc is hard to believe but I know that they are true. People do not generally want to pay a premium to live in places where human feces and used needles are regularly seen on the sidewalk. 

I am curious to see how this all plays out. I think people will continue to flee to other areas with a continued trend of leaving large US cities and some states like California and Illinois. How much will that impact home values? Of course, as always, real estate is always local but I think there is a clear trend. 

 
Chadstroma said:
SF should be becoming much more affordable soon. I just saw an article that a poll of SF residents said 40% of them are planning on leaving in the next couple of years. 
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Meh.  When I lived there a whole lot of younger people really only were there for 3-5 years, then they moved on.  Either to the burbs or to another state.  Pretty common.

That said, I could see why most people would be ecstatic to leave states like California and Illinois.

 
Alex P Keaton said:
Meh.  When I lived there a whole lot of younger people really only were there for 3-5 years, then they moved on.  Either to the burbs or to another state.  Pretty common.

That said, I could see why most people would be ecstatic to leave states like California and Illinois.
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I think those who leave California must have mixed feelings. The weather, natural beauty, museums, food, etc is top notch in much of California. On the other hand, I don't see people leaving Illinois and looking back. 

 
SoBeDad said:
I think those who leave California must have mixed feelings. The weather, natural beauty, museums, food, etc is top notch in much of California. On the other hand, I don't see people leaving Illinois and looking back. 
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My pasty new neighbors here in Tampa agree with you. 

 
SoBeDad said:
I think those who leave California must have mixed feelings. The weather, natural beauty, museums, food, etc is top notch in much of California. On the other hand, I don't see people leaving Illinois and looking back. 
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It interesting to think about how climate change projections would make that whole area much more livable though. Illinois seems to have pretty high tax issues, but adjacent states not as much. I doubt anyone from CA or NY is bidding up these markets like is happening in a lot of places right now. Not a political comment, just an observation of where future opportunity could be...

 
I'm enjoying the dialog in this topic. what are your thoughts on this scenario?

we bought in the San Fernando Valley (Los Angeles) in 2015. desirable neighborhood, big lot, decent price. we can sell now and pocket probably $500k cash. my wife and I have been talking about selling, and renting for a few years. I don't think we're in a bubble necessarily, but I can see prices out here sliding down maybe 10-20% or so over the next few years. we could use the cash to pay off some small debts, invest the rest, and still have a good chunk when we're ready for our next downpayment.

if I thought this was our forever home, I probably wouldn't consider it, but with the current state of the city, I'm not so sure any more. and I don't think the prices are sustainable, so maybe strike while the iron is hot? of course, the risk is not being able to find a home that we like or is available when we're ready to buy again.

thoughts?

 
Maik Jeaunz said:
I'm enjoying the dialog in this topic. what are your thoughts on this scenario?

we bought in the San Fernando Valley (Los Angeles) in 2015. desirable neighborhood, big lot, decent price. we can sell now and pocket probably $500k cash. my wife and I have been talking about selling, and renting for a few years. I don't think we're in a bubble necessarily, but I can see prices out here sliding down maybe 10-20% or so over the next few years. we could use the cash to pay off some small debts, invest the rest, and still have a good chunk when we're ready for our next downpayment.

if I thought this was our forever home, I probably wouldn't consider it, but with the current state of the city, I'm not so sure any more. and I don't think the prices are sustainable, so maybe strike while the iron is hot? of course, the risk is not being able to find a home that we like or is available when we're ready to buy again.

thoughts?
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My wife and I are doing this in FL (not pocketing quite that much though). I think it depends on the rental (location, cost, stability, etc). If the rental situation is solid, go for it.

 
Desert_Power said:
It interesting to think about how climate change projections would make that whole area much more livable though. Illinois seems to have pretty high tax issues, but adjacent states not as much. I doubt anyone from CA or NY is bidding up these markets like is happening in a lot of places right now. Not a political comment, just an observation of where future opportunity could be...
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Climate change has me rethinking my life long dream of buying a 2nd home on the Oregon Coast.  I've been here 26 years and love it, but the recent temps (we hit 116 on Monday - unheard of), dry springs, wildfires, poor air quality in late summer has me scared.  Something is definitely changing here.  And if we continue this trajectory, the coastal homes are at risk of sinking into the ground with rising levels of water around them.  No thanks.  

Plus, with 5 kids that was a stupid dream anyway.  I'll be paying for colleges until I depart this planet, hopefully not via some sort of fiery end or tsunami but peacefully in my sleep or having sex without first consulting with my doctor.

 
General Malaise said:
Climate change has me rethinking my life long dream of buying a 2nd home on the Oregon Coast.  I've been here 26 years and love it, but the recent temps (we hit 116 on Monday - unheard of), dry springs, wildfires, poor air quality in late summer has me scared.  Something is definitely changing here.  And if we continue this trajectory, the coastal homes are at risk of sinking into the ground with rising levels of water around them.  No thanks.  

Plus, with 5 kids that was a stupid dream anyway.  I'll be paying for colleges until I depart this planet, hopefully not via some sort of fiery end or tsunami but peacefully in my sleep or having sex without first consulting with my doctor.
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I’ve been thinking about this a lot now that we’re back in state, because my parents have a place at the coast. Their retirement plan includes selling it at some point, but I could buy in for a share instead and we could keep it. Only owning part would lower that financial risk somewhat, but it’s 20 yards from the beach and absolutely in the tsunami zone, let alone just the rising sea level. 

 
SoBeDad said:
Are you referring to the homeless situation? 
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Correct. Pretty much on every street. We parked just around the corner from the restaurant and I saw feces, needles, and a one guy passed out on the floor and another living in his car. My fiancee said maybe we don't need to eat in SF anymore.

 
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Charlie Harper said:
Correct. Pretty much on every street. We parked just around the corner from the restaurant and I saw feces, needles, and a one guy passed out on the floor and another living in his car. My fiancee said maybe we don't need to eat in SF anymore.
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We took our kids to SF three years ago.  Stayed in an AirBNB in our old ‘hood (Castro).  First day there we were waiting to cross the street at a stoplight.  Homeless guy walks up to us and says “hi family.......(creepy voice)......have a nice ####ing day!!!!”   My kids were 9.  Good times.

 
General Malaise said:
Climate change has me rethinking my life long dream of buying a 2nd home on the Oregon Coast.  I've been here 26 years and love it, but the recent temps (we hit 116 on Monday - unheard of), dry springs, wildfires, poor air quality in late summer has me scared.  Something is definitely changing here.  And if we continue this trajectory, the coastal homes are at risk of sinking into the ground with rising levels of water around them.  No thanks.  

Plus, with 5 kids that was a stupid dream anyway.  I'll be paying for colleges until I depart this planet, hopefully not via some sort of fiery end or tsunami but peacefully in my sleep or having sex without first consulting with my doctor.
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:lmao:

 
SFBayDuck said:
I’ve been thinking about this a lot now that we’re back in state, because my parents have a place at the coast. Their retirement plan includes selling it at some point, but I could buy in for a share instead and we could keep it. Only owning part would lower that financial risk somewhat, but it’s 20 yards from the beach and absolutely in the tsunami zone, let alone just the rising sea level. 
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is there anyway to just buy the water up there in order to be a part of the overall takeover plan?

 
joffer said:
Cedar Park, TX is absolutely insane right now.  Bought for $265 in 2005.  I’m told I could get $650K tomorrow.
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If I understand it correctly, the issue isn’t what the market bears, rather what the house appraises for. Cash buyer at that increase? I’m selling. 

 
JetMaxx said:
If I understand it correctly, the issue isn’t what the market bears, rather what the house appraises for. Cash buyer at that increase? I’m selling. 
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My BIL sold his house a month or 2 ago. When the agent met the appraiser the latter said at the conclusion (paraphrasing) 'okay, everything looks good, this house is valued at X.' The agent retorted 'the sell price was > 10% above X.' To which the appraiser said 'sounds good then I'll appraise it above that.'

 
MAC_32 said:
JetMaxx said:
If I understand it correctly, the issue isn’t what the market bears, rather what the house appraises for. Cash buyer at that increase? I’m selling. 
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My BIL sold his house a month or 2 ago. When the agent met the appraiser the latter said at the conclusion (paraphrasing) 'okay, everything looks good, this house is valued at X.' The agent retorted 'the sell price was > 10% above X.' To which the appraiser said 'sounds good then I'll appraise it above that.'
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This is basically what’s happening in SoCal right now. The house I’m in escrow for appraised for $250.00 above my offer.   I paid 10% over the inflated list price.  

 
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