dkp993
Footballguy
Basically flat over the past almost year in my part of So-Cal. A little surprised honestly.
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How's your housing market? (1 Viewer)
- Thread starter tommyGunZ
- Start date
-OZ-
Footballguy
I get that it has flaws, but the identical house down the street in my neighborhood just sold for the same amount Zillow has listed for ours. So it sure seems close this time.
Roughly 10% increase in 4 years. So not booming but good enough.
Here in Denver, inventory is extremely low, well below this time last year. Rates are significantly lower than this time last year too. So for the few people that are actually listing their homes, it’s generally been pretty hot, especially in the entry level market.
My wife has an entry level buyer she is showing some new listings to today, fully expecting multiple offer situations on them. Last weekend their 3 showings all got cancelled before they got to go see them because the houses already had multiple offers in the first few days.
My wife has an entry level buyer she is showing some new listings to today, fully expecting multiple offer situations on them. Last weekend their 3 showings all got cancelled before they got to go see them because the houses already had multiple offers in the first few days.
xulf
Footballguy
Zillow is poo, but it has a huge influence on the market...for good or bad. In my area, most houses are within 1-2% of the Zillow estimate, which is usually higher than what is reality. But, if people keep buying them - then maybe that is the real price since somebody is willing to pay it
. And there is no doubt that if I were to list my house, I would do it above the Zillow price, which I think is too high.The big impact it has is on lower priced condos and townhouses in the area. I have a rental property and would like to add another, but since they are all in the same city/zip code of higher priced homes, the Zestimate on these units are way higher than they should be since they are being artificially propped up by the stand-alone homes.
Gr00vus
Footballguy
Not so great for providing an accurate valuation of a particular property. But it is useful in understanding overall market trends, which is the nature of this current discussion.
flapgreen
Footballguy
joey
Footballguy
sounds like the bay area circa 2001 and 2004 when we last bought here. It makes the stomach churn to be in such a competitive market as a buyer. I don't plan to move for at least 10 years if not more (ie. once I'm in semi-retirement in my mid-60s)
FairWarning
Footballguy
Living on Lake Michigan with all of the beach erosion - awful. Some people will lose their ### as their insurance wont cover it.
Chadstroma
Footballguy
North of Moorpark but yea.
In most parts of the country, mobile homes depreciate. Not in California. LOL
Chadstroma
Footballguy
I expect a correction for Cali soon. Come a downturn in the economy, there are to be a short lived but likely sharp correction and then a rebound.
Chadstroma
Footballguy
Some people actually get stuck on the stupid Zestimates thinking that that is the value. I thankfully don't get involved in the negotiations but close enough to hear about the stories.
Chadstroma
Footballguy
A decent realtor can destroy the morons who stick to a bad Zestimate.Zillow is poo, but it has a huge influence on the market...for good or bad. In my area, most houses are within 1-2% of the Zillow estimate, which is usually higher than what is reality. But, if people keep buying them - then maybe that is the real price since somebody is willing to pay it
The big impact it has is on lower priced condos and townhouses in the area. I have a rental property and would like to add another, but since they are all in the same city/zip code of higher priced homes, the Zestimate on these units are way higher than they should be since they are being artificially propped up by the stand-alone homes.
If you do want to get another investor property, let me know and I will hook you up with a broker in your state. Experienced investors can do a cash flow loan (no income docs from you) with 15% down.
Chadstroma
Footballguy
Chadstroma
Footballguy
joey
Footballguy
Odd thing to try to correct me on. You realize there’s a thing called google maps, right?
https://www.google.com/search?q=moorpark to newbury park&ie=utf-8&oe=utf-8&client=firefox-b-1-m
joey
Footballguy
Odd thing to try to correct me on. You realize there’s a thing called google maps, right?
https://www.google.com/search?q=moorpark to newbury park&ie=utf-8&oe=utf-8&client=firefox-b-1-m
Chadstroma
Footballguy
Ha! Yea.... I stand corrected. I could explain what I was thinking but it was basically failed thinking frame of reference that would take too much to explain. My bad.Odd thing to try to correct me on. You realize there’s a thing called google maps, right?
https://www.google.com/search?q=moorpark to newbury park&ie=utf-8&oe=utf-8&client=firefox-b-1-m
FairWarning
Footballguy
It sounds like its bad right up the entire coast. I'm right across the lake from you and lost 70% of the beach - i'm one of the lucky ones. Many houses on the market now.
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Pole Cat
Footballguy
Planning to move back to San Diego in the summer, and currently scoping out properties. Is the general wisdom to sit this out until the downturn comes? Seems like people have been predicting the downturn for 3 years, yet the trend continues upward albeit not so steeply. My current thinking is that any downturn in San Diego proper would be minimal, with the greatest dangers being well outside the city—just as it was in 2006-2008. For the locals, we’re looking in North Park (where we lived ‘15-‘18), Point Loma, Bay Park, Del Cerro, and Tierrasanta. Thanks!
Summer Wheat
Footballguy
Wow, I was in Traverse City for a wedding a couple of years ago and the locals, hotels and condo owners were all complaining about how low the water level was in Lake Michigan, you could actually walk out 200 yards and still be around knee high water. Boat docks were sitting in dry land.
Chadstroma
Footballguy
I am not following the market well enough to give an informed answer there. I have seen data showing SD as an overvalued market but on the other side trying to time the market isn't easy.
dkp993
Footballguy
As a lifelong SD local I’ve never really seen the cycle you’re talking about. Buy when you find the house you like, any swing if there is one will be minimal.
For the areas, North Park has gotten really cool over the past decade (as you know living there prior) so it would be my choice of the areas you laid out. While Point Loma is the prettiest of the areas listed with the airplane traffic you couldn’t pay me to live there.
Rodrigo Duterte
Footballguy
What are your thoughts on North County currently? Where are the prime spots in your opinion?dkp993 said:
TripItUp
Footballguy
Zegras11
Footballguy
Should almost always be that way. RE flows out from the beach there in waves. Sometimes it makes the IE, sometimes not. That came from my very good RE agent I used from 95-06 there.
dkp993
Footballguy
North County is my favorite part of SD. Lived in Carlsbad for a while and that was a great town. Encinitas where Trip lives is a cool little beach community for sure, same with Solana Beach on down to Del Mar. Pricey though. Inland North County, Rancho Bernardo is a nice community.
sublimeone
Footballguy
Looking for some thoughts on the general state of real estate. I'm looking at a property in a small town/vacation area and starting to get the sense that the market is going to dive in the next 6 months - especially in an area with many second homes. Thoughts?
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My wife and I have been discussing something similar, but instead of a small town or vacation area we are just wondering about buying a larger house in the city we already live in (very high cost of living area). At the minimum we want at least one additional bedroom. We are debating 3 options:
- Remodelling
- Selling our current house and buying a house
- Keeping our current house and buying a house
2 Kind of a pain with all of the moving parts. Really do not want to sell because I really like this house, and due to the previously mentioned prop 13 and appreciation in value in the years since we have owned it we will never be able to have property with upkeep this low unless there is a major crash. Just a touch too small for my wife (I can deal with it).
3 Is the tough one, since it requires the most market prediction. Will prices come down in the next year or two due to the economy? Typically the type of people that could afford these houses probably are the ones with higher paying white collar jobs that are less likely to get laid off.
ChiefD
Footballguy
Inventory is low, so the market is still hot in my neighborhood.
My wife and I are thinking about relocating to the Brainerd Lakes area next spring. Housing market is hot up there right now. And personally I think it is going to stay that way. With people able to work from home, I can see more people moving out into the sticks or vacation areas and just living there.
That's our plan.
sublimeone
Footballguy
Chadstroma
Footballguy
Inventory is low everywhere pretty much. Though if I lived in a major metro area, I would be selling and moving to burbs or further.
I think we are starting to see a major shift for US cities.
COVID has made companies shift to working off site and we have seen many major companies already announce the changes will be permanent. Myself and others involved in RE have already started seeing people basically sell and move due to this.
On top of this the civil unrest seems to me to put fuel on this fire. At best, if all that happens is what we see now it will still generate many people to rethink living in cities that this stuff happens in. If it degenerates more with moves to eliminate, defund and otherwise change law enforcement abilities to fight crime then I expect (as we have already seen) crime rates to increase, businesses, workers and residents to leave given that for many there are readily available remote working possibilities to do that.
I think smart money, if you live within city limits of a large US city, is to sell now while inventory is low and there may still be buyers.
I think we are starting to see a major shift for US cities.
COVID has made companies shift to working off site and we have seen many major companies already announce the changes will be permanent. Myself and others involved in RE have already started seeing people basically sell and move due to this.
On top of this the civil unrest seems to me to put fuel on this fire. At best, if all that happens is what we see now it will still generate many people to rethink living in cities that this stuff happens in. If it degenerates more with moves to eliminate, defund and otherwise change law enforcement abilities to fight crime then I expect (as we have already seen) crime rates to increase, businesses, workers and residents to leave given that for many there are readily available remote working possibilities to do that.
I think smart money, if you live within city limits of a large US city, is to sell now while inventory is low and there may still be buyers.
tommyGunZ
Footballguy
I don’t pretend to know what the long term living trends fallout will be from Covid-19, but my read on the current civil unrest is the exact opposite. Once changes in leadership occur and changes in policing are legislated, the long term results will be less crime, more opportunities for businesses in Cities, etc. Once we rebuild trust in police among people of color in our inner cities, things get better, not worse. And don’t underestimate how much of this anger is fueled by having an openly racist POTUS. Once Trump is gone, much of the current anger will dissipate.
tommyGunZ
Footballguy
Somehow missed this the first time. Point Loma/Ocean Beach resident here. I’d rank those neighborhoods exactly as you have them listed, only I’d swap the first two.
Where did you end up? If you’re still looking and have any questions about Point Loma, feel free to ask. I know almost every square inch of the Peninsula having lived here and studied the market for the last 18 years. Good luck!
tommyGunZ
Footballguy
We all have our preferences, but “couldn’t pay me to live there” is a little extreme, no? I call BS. Someone offers you this crib, for free, and you’d say no? https://www.redfin.com/CA/San-Diego/701-Gage-Dr-92106/home/5745580
Well technically, free isn't paying him to live there. And at that price, you'd probably have to pay him to live there since most folks couldn't afford the property taxes.
I call BS. Someone offers you this crib, for free, and you’d say no? https://www.redfin.com/CA/San-Diego/701-Gage-Dr-92106/home/5745580
dkp993
Footballguy
So you never heard the term figure of speech Tommy. Stop it, no need to be a ####.
I call BS. Someone offers you this crib, for free, and you’d say no? https://www.redfin.com/CA/San-Diego/701-Gage-Dr-92106/home/5745580
Chadstroma
Footballguy
I don't want to get into a back and forth on politics about this but I will just say I am not sure how much sense that makes when pretty much every major city in the US is governed by Democrats. Chicago, for instance, has a very hard left mayor and all the Aldermen are Democrats but one that is pretty much the norm. Anything Democrats want to do in these cities, they can do. So...
But if you believe that then I suspect you will have some buying opportunities soon. You can get yourself a rental empire!
tommyGunZ
Footballguy
You suggested that my neighborhood was somewhere so beneath you that even if someone paid you, you would not reside there. And I’m the ####?
dkp993
Footballguy
Did you wake up on the wrong side of the bed this morning? Get a bad batch of coffee? You’re personally offended because an internet stranger doesn’t like the sounds of planes taking off over his head. OK. Maybe try decaf.You suggested that my neighborhood was somewhere so beneath you that even if someone paid you, you would not reside there. And I’m the ####?
Again let me help you...
fig·ure of speech
noun
a word or phrase used in a non-literal sense for rhetorical or vivid effect.
Am I the only one checking zillow for some of these places out of curiosity, mainly just to see the cost of living in different areas and what we could afford in another areas? My wife and I decided we are moving to Encinitas now (not really) to go here:
https://www.zillow.com/homedetails/208-Rancho-Santa-Fe-Rd-Encinitas-CA-92024/16720263_zpid/
San Diego is one of the areas I would consider moving to due to limited locations with a reasonable amount of jobs in my field.
https://www.zillow.com/homedetails/208-Rancho-Santa-Fe-Rd-Encinitas-CA-92024/16720263_zpid/
San Diego is one of the areas I would consider moving to due to limited locations with a reasonable amount of jobs in my field.
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dkp993
Footballguy
I checked it and Redfin a ton when I was buying my home in So-Cal. I found the pricing to be very reflective of what prices actually were/are but I know others here don’t feel that way or have had other experiences. My home just outside SD was within $5k and the homes that have sold in my area in the 2 years since have all been close to the estimates.
On a side note, I was born and raised in SD. Have lived there 90% of my life, not sure there are many better places to live. It’s an amazing city. Good luck in your search.
We are not actively looking to move there, it is just wistful thinking and a "possible" place we would consider if we were ever leaving our area. We could never afford a place like that here, would probably be 4mil.
Mrs. Rannous
Footballguy
The fact that a city is governed by Dems makes no difference if the state is governed by Repub idiots. (I'm in Houston.) And our city hasn't had any major unrest. Or really even minor unrest. Chicago may have a Dem mayor, but the major factor there is the police force and it's history. They had institutionalized torture of suspects until very recently. The mayor is pretty limited in that system. Sooo...
Chadstroma
Footballguy
I am not getting into a political discussion. Bend it as you wish. Democrats have absolute power in pretty much every major US city. Try to blame whomever you don't like and try to protect the guys you like. The fact is that the power Democrats habe in the largest US cities is nearly universal and complete. The supposed problem is police departments and it is the city government in charge of those.
The point about this is not a political finger pointing but showing that this isn't some summer of change. The same people in charge over the last couple of decades are in charge now. There is no reason to believe some sort of utopia is now on the way. If you believe there is then great... you should have some real estate investment opportunities soon. Put your money where your mouth is.
My bet is that this is the start of the decline of the large US cities. Not because of the civil unrest but primarily because of the changes with COVID and the increased ability to work remote. The civil unrest will just be another prompt for people to sell and move.
I have already done loans for people moving because of being able to now work remotely. I think it is just the beginning.
⚡DEADHEAD⚡
Footballguy
No question it's happening in the Bay Area. Folks living in SF are leaving for Bay Area suburbs and beyond, like Sacramento and Tahoe.
Chadstroma
Footballguy
When I lived in Stockton twenty years ago People were buying out there to commute into SF for their jobs. They pushed themselves with ridiculous commutes (drive to BART in Dublin, IIRC and take BART in) as far as they could so they could buy a decent home but tied to their jobs in SF.
Now... masses of workers will have the new freedom of working from home. They can go wherever it is they want.
I think this will also increase the exodus out of states like Illinois, New York and California.
