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How's your housing market? (4 Viewers)

We closed Memorial Day 2020 at ~650, and all comps and Zillow and Homebot and whatever have value between 900-1M. Bonkers.
Our house went from 240K to what I'm guessing is about 340K in four years.  (We live just outside of Houston in the next county.)  My question is how do you make sure your home owner's insurance is actually insuring your house's replacement value?  I'm trying to keep up, but this is silly.

 
Our house went from 240K to what I'm guessing is about 340K in four years.  (We live just outside of Houston in the next county.)  My question is how do you make sure your home owner's insurance is actually insuring your house's replacement value?  I'm trying to keep up, but this is silly.
Not sure exactly what the description in on the Ins Policy but our house has “replacement cost” coverage in the description for it being —> Nationwide

 
Our house went from 240K to what I'm guessing is about 340K in four years.  (We live just outside of Houston in the next county.)  My question is how do you make sure your home owner's insurance is actually insuring your house's replacement value?  I'm trying to keep up, but this is silly.


You should contact your agent.  Your policy was probably written against your original mortgage.  Texas has some really funny rules on stuff.  

 
You should contact your agent.  Your policy was probably written against your original mortgage.  Texas has some really funny rules on stuff.  
Nope.  We paid cash.  I updated the policy a few months back, but I still wonder how people keep up with this stuff.

 
Another impact of high home values- OC Maryland. Some company named Vacasa bought up all the smaller real estate/rental companies and jacked up the prices and fees.

The second factor is you had all these people who have sold their condos for profit recently- the new owners have to make their money up with higher rents/prices. Many of the sellers are just happy to finally get out - the new owners could either set the price going forward or get their asses handed to them when people refuse to pay these new  exorbitant prices. 

Sad to say I’m hopping the latter and I can scoop up a foreclosure in a couple of years. 

 
This. Seems like the best strategy is actually to list your price a little lower than what you can expect and then it’s a bidding frenzy. Weird how human nature works in that regard. 
 
About 10% list too high like this.    It's the guy that says, "My neighbor just got $500k for their home. So I'll list mine for $500k also."   Not realizing that the neighbor put in $50k of upgrades in the last year or two and he's never been inside the place.  Condition affects the price quite a bit in most sales.

The thing is, especially now, if it doesn't sell in a few days, people think there is something wrong with it and they wind up netting less then had they priced it correctly to begin with. It's just the dumbest strategy to employ.

The asking price is only there for one reason. To get traffic in the door.  Want a bidding war?  List it $10-20k under the comps.

 
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So we rent our old home out and I’m think about pulling the trigger to sell in this market and setting funds aside as rates go up to be a cash move up buyer in upcoming years if we get a value pullback. Do you guys see a pullback coming in upcoming years or is inflation and lack of inventory going to keep driving things higher? Check your crystal balls 🔮 friends, would you sell a second home now? 

 
Another impact of high home values- OC Maryland. Some company named Vacasa bought up all the smaller real estate/rental companies and jacked up the prices and fees.

The second factor is you had all these people who have sold their condos for profit recently- the new owners have to make their money up with higher rents/prices. Many of the sellers are just happy to finally get out - the new owners could either set the price going forward or get their asses handed to them when people refuse to pay these new  exorbitant prices. 

Sad to say I’m hopping the latter and I can scoop up a foreclosure in a couple of years. 
I'm in the market for a condo in OC Maryland.  And I'd love to get one but I won't buy until I see a decent deal.  No decent deals to be had at the moment. 

 
So we rent our old home out and I’m think about pulling the trigger to sell in this market and setting funds aside as rates go up to be a cash move up buyer in upcoming years if we get a value pullback. Do you guys see a pullback coming in upcoming years or is inflation and lack of inventory going to keep driving things higher? Check your crystal balls 🔮 friends, would you sell a second home now? 
How big of a pullback would you need to offset the lack of rent during that time?

I sold a rental last summer.   I dont really regret doing so.

 
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Gary Keller (Keller Williams) had huge meeting last week in NO for 10k agents.  Showed a graph that based on current trends in housing starts in US, it will take 18 years to correct.   Not sure if that's 18 years from 2010, when it started, or now.  Gut tells me 2010.

Would not sell now unless you need the cash badly.  

 
I'm in the market for a condo in OC Maryland.  And I'd love to get one but I won't buy until I see a decent deal.  No decent deals to be had at the moment. 
Are you doing a high-rise or what? Just curious of your thinking- maybe I didn’t think of something. TIA. 

As for us- right now we’re thinking high rise. We’re investigating the Golden Sands and the Atlantis. A lot will depend on building condition and HOA fees but we don’t want a house/yard and we want to just walk out to the beach. 

 
How big of a pullback would you need to offset the lack of rent during that time?

I sold a rental last summer.   I dont really regret doing so.
So I net about $30k but not a great return for the value, it will sell in the $8-900k range easy right now. 

 
Are you doing a high-rise or what? Just curious of your thinking- maybe I didn’t think of something. TIA. 

As for us- right now we’re thinking high rise. We’re investigating the Golden Sands and the Atlantis. A lot will depend on building condition and HOA fees but we don’t want a house/yard and we want to just walk out to the beach. 
You might want to take the rising sea levels and increasing flooding in those areas into consideration. 

 
So I net about $30k but not a great return for the value, it will sell in the $8-900k range easy right now. 
Personally, I would sell and put the money into a no-load investment fund.  Of course, I really don't want the hassle of dealing with a rental property which colors my decision.

 
Are you doing a high-rise or what? Just curious of your thinking- maybe I didn’t think of something. TIA. 

As for us- right now we’re thinking high rise. We’re investigating the Golden Sands and the Atlantis. A lot will depend on building condition and HOA fees but we don’t want a house/yard and we want to just walk out to the beach. 
So we like the Northern end and have targeted an area near Northside park.  We like the condos in place like Hidden Harbor for example.  We are staying away from the high rises because the beaches get jammed there due to the density of the high rises and people.  

Obviously we'd like the condo fee to be as low as possible but it seems like anything less than $500 a month is low for the area.  While we've been waiting a while for our finance and my health to line up, I just don't want to jump into the market at the wrong time.  Plus we're seeing prices of at least $500k for a 3bd/2bath + the $500/mo+ condo fee would limit our financial flexibility.

I'll let you know if we decide to move on anything.

 
You might want to take the rising sea levels and increasing flooding in those areas into consideration. 
I'm old enough now that I've been hearing about rising sea levels for 20 years and while I agree it's happening, if it takes 50+ more years to appreciably rise I'd rather enjoy my time now.

 
Things in Tampa seem to be accelerating. A house across the street was listed for $799K in mid-January. Went pending in 2 days. Closed last week for $955K. 

 
I live in one of the cheapest metropolitan areas in the country - Indianapolis, IN.  Our neighbor listed their house for $349K, had a minimum of 6 showings the first day, and accepted an offer for $399K within 24 hours.

 
What's $399K get you in Indy?


Over 5,000 sq ft
5 bedrooms
3 bathrooms
nice patio with fenced backyard
plus a large unfinished basement
built in 2001

I look at some of these home prices in CA, etc. and am just amazed.  My SIL and her husband bought a < 1,500 sq ft condo in CA a few years back and I think they paid more than double what our house cost.

 
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Over 5,000 sq ft
5 bedrooms
3 bathrooms
nice patio with fenced backyard
plus a large unfinished basement
built in 2001

I look at some of these home prices in CA, etc. and am just amazed.  My SIL and her husband bought a < 1,500 sq ft condo in CA a few years back and I think they paid more than double what our house cost.


Wow!  Crazy to me to see what kind of house you can get for the money in different parts of our country.  I love where I live, but it's getting stupid what I could list my house for right now.  Maybe I'd like Indy winters?

 
Wow!  Crazy to me to see what kind of house you can get for the money in different parts of our country.  I love where I live, but it's getting stupid what I could list my house for right now.  Maybe I'd like Indy winters?


I love it here.  I always tell people that it's got all the things I want in a big city (professional sports, concerts, food/drink scene, airport, etc.) without most of the headaches (cost of living, traffic, high taxes. etc.).  There are a few things that I think it lacks like great outdoors type stuff to do (no mountains or beaches are close at all), but other than that it has a ton to offer.  I just take some of the money we save on housing and travel a ton.  🙂

 
A lot of up north (NY in particular) states with high tax rates are paying a ton in pensions and other things like that. I couldn’t even count how many retired NYC cops I know down here in NC. It’s probably a cost savings blessing to be in a red state as the union presence/pension presence is way lower than up north and I wouldn’t be shocked if that’s a large chunk of the cost. Property (new schools), maintenance and general salaries for schools and admin are also likely way higher as well.

My wife grew up in upstate NY and I remember years ago being shocked at the property tax rates being paid on houses that were way smaller than ours and we lived in the DC suburbs at the time. Houses half the size paying 5+ times the taxes. Seemed like you’d pay for the house every 10-15 years just in taxes.
We bought at 290 and we are appraised at 265 in December of 19. Pay roughly 11K (3.5 property and 7.5 school).

Upstate NY did not see the skyrocket in housing values that LI or Westchester did which allowed rates to look lower. My in-laws on LI pay slightly more than I do, but are assessed at 650.

Zestimate puts me at 365 now and we will sell as soon as the kids are done with High School.

 
Our house went from 240K to what I'm guessing is about 340K in four years.  (We live just outside of Houston in the next county.)  My question is how do you make sure your home owner's insurance is actually insuring your house's replacement value?  I'm trying to keep up, but this is silly.
We have USAA and they estimate build cost. 

Most of the increase in value is from the underlying land, not the house itself. Building it has gotten a bit more expensive, but not to the level of effect that scarcity of houses has had, if that makes sense. I think our land is like half to two-thirds the value, maybe more. We could probably rebuild the house for $300-400k?

 
We have USAA and they estimate build cost. 

Most of the increase in value is from the underlying land, not the house itself. Building it has gotten a bit more expensive, but not to the level of effect that scarcity of houses has had, if that makes sense. I think our land is like half to two-thirds the value, maybe more. We could probably rebuild the house for $300-400k?
I'm not sure that's true here.  And I don't have to insure the land.  It won't burn down.  Most of the increase in value seems to be a combination of demand and increased building costs.

 
I'm not sure that's true here.  And I don't have to insure the land.  It won't burn down.  Most of the increase in value seems to be a combination of demand and increased building costs.
For insurance purposes, the increase in the value of your home that is caused by increase in demand is essentially an increase in the value of the land. If the value of your house went from 240K to 340K in four years, say 20K of that is the increase in construction costs (just making up a number). So if cost to rebuild your home was previously 200K (essentially valuing the land at 40K), you'd have insured for 200K. In this hypo, the cost to rebuild the home is now 220K and the value of the land is 120K, and you'll want to be insured for 220K.

ETA: In short, the replacement cost of your house (and thus how much you insure for) is totally different than the sales value of your house. Huge increases in the value of your house do not mean you need to dramatically increase the coverage limits of your insurance. 

 
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I'm not sure that's true here.  And I don't have to insure the land.  It won't burn down.  Most of the increase in value seems to be a combination of demand and increased building costs.
Yeah I mean idk your market just mine :)

Right that's my point. Even though our property is theoretically valued at like 900k, and we bought at like 650k, we have never insured more than like 450k for rebuild and for buying furnishing and such. Because exactly that the land can't burn down. 

The increase in demand is not just because the house is there. It's because of that spot. If you're house was 80 miles further from anything it wouldn't be increasing even though building costs would be proportionally even higher!

 
Zillow has us at $699K. Up and up and up. :knockonwood:

Bought in 2010 for $260K. Refied a couple of times pulling out cash, first for new AC and exterior paint and second to pay off alot of other debt. Current balance is around $272 on a 15 with about 13.5 years to go at 2.5%.

Toyed with the idea of going back up to a 30 and using savings to buy a small second home in the north country. Rates have gone up though and not really digging the idea of more debt. We both work from home and really could possibly talk our employers into working elsewhere. Sell and take the profit and potentially buy almost outright in a cheaper location. Ok maybe not exactly because prices have gone up everywhere.

 
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That smy issue.  Where do I go??????????????
And that's the issue.

You can sell high and make all this money, but then to live somewhere else you gotta just give up all that profit to get into a comparable place.

About a year ago I just went through a breakup after a 7 yr relationship where I lived with a woman who had 3 kids (not my kids).  So, I was in the perfect market situation where I could sell a 3K sq ft house for great profit, but then since just me I was downsizing and just decided on an apartment until the market comes back to earth.

The kicker though.....the person that bought the house from me, then 5 months later turned around and sold it for $55K MORE than what I sold it for.   That's how crazy the market is.  When I sold I got a good price and healthy profit.    Sure was a kick in the nuts though.

 
Just had a house sell for 75 over asking, 2 doors down.....God I wish I was ready to retire and move
I looked at the 5 houses that have sold in a 3 mile radius from my house in the last 14 days. Closing price vs. list price:  $30K, $35K, $50K, $50K, $160K.

 
We went to contract to build our forever home in July 2019 for 870K. Closed in June of 2020. 

Today......I can list it and without a doubt in my mind get 1.4MM 

Simply insane. But I have nowhere to go. I will check back in 15 years. I mean to be honest.....we love our home and can see ourselves staying here for good. So my focus in paying it off over the next 15 years (which I will). I did a 30 year at 2.875 fixed as I did not want to be married to a 15 year payment. But I do make extra payments all the time and know what I need to do to pay it off by year 15. It’s just nice to have more cashflow for summer trips and holidays. I have the financial discipline to pay her down at my desired cashflow method. 

But I am simply blown away at what has happened with the value. I fully expect it to level off here and maybe short term retreat 5-10% but long term? Like 10 years from now? I expect it will be at 1.4MM 

My last home which was also new construction I paid 395K and sold for 625K and that was 11 years. That was more normalized growth (still very good over 5% annually). 

Yeah this is not normal at all....

 
We went to contract to build our forever home in July 2019 for 870K. Closed in June of 2020. 

Today......I can list it and without a doubt in my mind get 1.4MM 

Simply insane. But I have nowhere to go. I will check back in 15 years. I mean to be honest.....we love our home and can see ourselves staying here for good. So my focus in paying it off over the next 15 years (which I will). I did a 30 year at 2.875 fixed as I did not want to be married to a 15 year payment. But I do make extra payments all the time and know what I need to do to pay it off by year 15. It’s just nice to have more cashflow for summer trips and holidays. I have the financial discipline to pay her down at my desired cashflow method. 

But I am simply blown away at what has happened with the value. I fully expect it to level off here and maybe short term retreat 5-10% but long term? Like 10 years from now? I expect it will be at 1.4MM 

My last home which was also new construction I paid 395K and sold for 625K and that was 11 years. That was more normalized growth (still very good over 5% annually). 

Yeah this is not normal at all....
I'm in South Florida as well and the market is just insane down here.

 
Just had a house sell for 75 over asking, 2 doors down.....God I wish I was ready to retire and move
i am dying to sell.  we have our plan to relo to italy in place and have our feet out the door, but with a sick dog that we are waiting on, we just can’t go right now.  heck, if i didn’t have him i’d sell and live in an extended stay right now.  hoping this market holds another 9-12 months.

 
That smy issue.  Where do I go??????????????
We have a "tenative plan"   but its not for another 5-7 years.  Daughter finishes college.

We've been here for ~19 years - I did refi about 10 ago and took money out for a remodel but that being said man selling now would be a huge profit.....

 
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Lots of finance people seemed confused about the CPI data today.  Housing costs make up roughly a third of the overall inflation, so having it in the mid 4s brought the overall inflation number down significantly.

Here is where a big piece of the CPI data fraud is contained.

Per the BLS, shelter is only up 4.7% in the past year. Many people think that the real number is likely between 15% to 30% depending on where you live.

If this were reported accurately, CPI would be approx 11% to 15%.

https://twitter.com/wallstreetsilv/status/1501917514183450625?s=21
 

https://www.cnbc.com/amp/2022/03/10/cpi-inflation-february-2022-.html

 

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