I may not be Jeff Pasquino, but here are my weekend picks (1 Viewer)

[Jeff Haseley]

Seattle +8 at Green Bay - I think the Seahawks can hang with the Packers and while they may lose in the end, I don't think it will be by more than 8 points. Brett Favre is a great QB, but he is also known for untimely INTs, especially in the 2nd half. Seattle is a pressuring defense with an excellent secondary. Advantage - SEA. I think the 8 points is too much. Seattle covers and may win if Favre's luck turns bad.

Jacksonvillle +13.5 at New England - Sure New England and Belichick have had 13 days to prepare for Jacksonville while Jacksonville has had only 6 days. However, New England's margin of victory has taken a hit over the last few weeks. Not including the Miami game, the Patriots have an 8.0 average margin of victory over their last five games, including three games where they won by three points. Jacksonville is no push over. Not including the week 17 no show against Houston, they have won seven straight games with wins over four playoff teams in that span. They can run the ball, dump off the ball to the open WR or RB, Garrard can run if needed, they can stop the run and they have one of the better cover corners in the league in Rashean Mathis. If New England wins at all, I just don't see a blow out of two TDs or more.

San Diego at Indianapolis -8.5 In their last meeting back in November, the Chargers won 23-21. However, they had two defense/ST TDs and their other TD came off of one of Peyton Manning's 6 INTs on the day. The Colts missed two FGs in that game, including the would-be game-winning gimme kick that Vinatieri shanked. Despite all of that - the Colts barely lost the game. That game was at San Diego, this game is in the dome at Indy. Peyton Manning will likely not throw six INTs again, which gave SD incredible field position of which they only managed one offensive TD. We're not sure what Marvin Harrison will bring to the table, but if anything it will take coverage away from other receivers. The Colts look like a solid pick here and they could win by 17 points or more, which is much more than the 8.5 they are laying.

NY Giants +7.5 at Dallas - Earlier in the week, I liked the Giants to cover here, but now I'm not so sure. I like the under 46.5 in this game, but I'm not confident. How often do we see teams go against the grain of the two previous games played earlier in the year? Meaning - this game, unlike the other two, will be lower scoring as opposed to a balanced game from both teams. I don't like this game as much as the other three, but if I had to go with a wager, I like NYG +7.5 and U46.5

 

[sheerterror]

Seattle +8 at Green Bay - I think the Seahawks can hang with the Packers and while they may lose in the end, I don't think it will be by more than 8 points. Brett Favre is a great QB, but he is also known for untimely INTs, especially in the 2nd half. Seattle is a pressuring defense with an excellent secondary. Advantage - SEA. I think the 8 points is too much. Seattle covers and may win if Favre's luck turns bad.

Jacksonvillle +13.5 at New England - Sure New England and Belichick have had 13 days to prepare for Jacksonville while Jacksonville has had only 6 days. However, New England's margin of victory has taken a hit over the last few weeks. Not including the Miami game, the Patriots have an 8.0 average margin of victory over their last five games, including three games where they won by three points. Jacksonville is no push over. Not including the week 17 no show against Houston, they have won seven straight games with wins over four playoff teams in that span. They can run the ball, dump off the ball to the open WR or RB, Garrard can run if needed, they can stop the run and they have one of the better cover corners in the league in Rashean Mathis. If New England wins at all, I just don't see a blow out of two TDs or more.

San Diego at Indianapolis -8.5 In their last meeting back in November, the Chargers won 23-21. However, they had two defense/ST TDs and their other TD came off of one of Peyton Manning's 6 INTs on the day. The Colts missed two FGs in that game, including the would-be game-winning gimme kick that Vinatieri shanked. Despite all of that - the Colts barely lost the game. That game was at San Diego, this game is in the dome at Indy. Peyton Manning will likely not throw six INTs again, which gave SD incredible field position of which they only managed one offensive TD. We're not sure what Marvin Harrison will bring to the table, but if anything it will take coverage away from other receivers. The Colts look like a solid pick here and they could win by 17 points or more, which is much more than the 8.5 they are laying.

NY Giants +7.5 at Dallas - Earlier in the week, I liked the Giants to cover here, but now I'm not so sure. I like the under 46.5 in this game, but I'm not confident. How often do we see teams go against the grain of the two previous games played earlier in the year? Meaning - this game, unlike the other two, will be lower scoring as opposed to a balanced game from both teams. I don't like this game as much as the other three, but if I had to go with a wager, I like NYG +7.5 and U46.5

I like all of these picks except for Jacksonville. As much as I would love to see New England get knocked off, and as much as the media wants us to believe Jacksonville is the team that can do it - I just don't think they can hold up defensively. The Jags are great at stopping the run on D, but they seem vulnerable to the pass. I don't know how they are statistically, but if last week is an accurate indicator, I think Brady lights them up. Of course, if the weather is bad, this will help equalize things a bit (the way it did against the Jets.) Anyway, seems like their weaknesses play well into the strength of the Pats, and I could see New England winning by 2 TDs.

 

[AllVolUT]

Seattle +8 at Green Bay - I think the Seahawks can hang with the Packers and while they may lose in the end, I don't think it will be by more than 8 points. Brett Favre is a great QB, but he is also known for untimely INTs, especially in the 2nd half. Seattle is a pressuring defense with an excellent secondary. Advantage - SEA. I think the 8 points is too much. Seattle covers and may win if Favre's luck turns bad.

Jacksonvillle +13.5 at New England - Sure New England and Belichick have had 13 days to prepare for Jacksonville while Jacksonville has had only 6 days. However, New England's margin of victory has taken a hit over the last few weeks. Not including the Miami game, the Patriots have an 8.0 average margin of victory over their last five games, including three games where they won by three points. Jacksonville is no push over. Not including the week 17 no show against Houston, they have won seven straight games with wins over four playoff teams in that span. They can run the ball, dump off the ball to the open WR or RB, Garrard can run if needed, they can stop the run and they have one of the better cover corners in the league in Rashean Mathis. If New England wins at all, I just don't see a blow out of two TDs or more.

San Diego at Indianapolis -8.5 In their last meeting back in November, the Chargers won 23-21. However, they had two defense/ST TDs and their other TD came off of one of Peyton Manning's 6 INTs on the day. The Colts missed two FGs in that game, including the would-be game-winning gimme kick that Vinatieri shanked. Despite all of that - the Colts barely lost the game. That game was at San Diego, this game is in the dome at Indy. Peyton Manning will likely not throw six INTs again, which gave SD incredible field position of which they only managed one offensive TD. We're not sure what Marvin Harrison will bring to the table, but if anything it will take coverage away from other receivers. The Colts look like a solid pick here and they could win by 17 points or more, which is much more than the 8.5 they are laying.

NY Giants +7.5 at Dallas - Earlier in the week, I liked the Giants to cover here, but now I'm not so sure. I like the under 46.5 in this game, but I'm not confident. How often do we see teams go against the grain of the two previous games played earlier in the year? Meaning - this game, unlike the other two, will be lower scoring as opposed to a balanced game from both teams. I don't like this game as much as the other three, but if I had to go with a wager, I like NYG +7.5 and U46.5

I agree with you on every side. I'm hoping that is a good thing. Jax is 7-2 in the last 9. In those 9 games, they've played 4 playoff teams (beating Pitt twice at Heinz) and went 3-1 (4-1 if you include both Pitt victories)...only losing 28-25 @ the RCA dome. IMO, a big question mark will be the play/lack thereof of
. I love the line. As a fan, I just wish the media would back off and give them the 'no shot in hell' approach at the Pats.

Good picks and writeups - curious to see Pasquino's rebuttal.

 

[Jeff Haseley]

Seattle +8 at Green Bay - I think the Seahawks can hang with the Packers and while they may lose in the end, I don't think it will be by more than 8 points. Brett Favre is a great QB, but he is also known for untimely INTs, especially in the 2nd half. Seattle is a pressuring defense with an excellent secondary. Advantage - SEA. I think the 8 points is too much. Seattle covers and may win if Favre's luck turns bad.

Jacksonvillle +13.5 at New England - Sure New England and Belichick have had 13 days to prepare for Jacksonville while Jacksonville has had only 6 days. However, New England's margin of victory has taken a hit over the last few weeks. Not including the Miami game, the Patriots have an 8.0 average margin of victory over their last five games, including three games where they won by three points. Jacksonville is no push over. Not including the week 17 no show against Houston, they have won seven straight games with wins over four playoff teams in that span. They can run the ball, dump off the ball to the open WR or RB, Garrard can run if needed, they can stop the run and they have one of the better cover corners in the league in Rashean Mathis. If New England wins at all, I just don't see a blow out of two TDs or more.

San Diego at Indianapolis -8.5 In their last meeting back in November, the Chargers won 23-21. However, they had two defense/ST TDs and their other TD came off of one of Peyton Manning's 6 INTs on the day. The Colts missed two FGs in that game, including the would-be game-winning gimme kick that Vinatieri shanked. Despite all of that - the Colts barely lost the game. That game was at San Diego, this game is in the dome at Indy. Peyton Manning will likely not throw six INTs again, which gave SD incredible field position of which they only managed one offensive TD. We're not sure what Marvin Harrison will bring to the table, but if anything it will take coverage away from other receivers. The Colts look like a solid pick here and they could win by 17 points or more, which is much more than the 8.5 they are laying.

NY Giants +7.5 at Dallas - Earlier in the week, I liked the Giants to cover here, but now I'm not so sure. I like the under 46.5 in this game, but I'm not confident. How often do we see teams go against the grain of the two previous games played earlier in the year? Meaning - this game, unlike the other two, will be lower scoring as opposed to a balanced game from both teams. I don't like this game as much as the other three, but if I had to go with a wager, I like NYG +7.5 and U46.5

I like all of these picks except for Jacksonville. As much as I would love to see New England get knocked off, and as much as the media wants us to believe Jacksonville is the team that can do it - I just don't think they can hold up defensively. The Jags are great at stopping the run on D, but they seem vulnerable to the pass. I don't know how they are statistically, but if last week is an accurate indicator, I think Brady lights them up. Of course, if the weather is bad, this will help equalize things a bit (the way it did against the Jets.) Anyway, seems like their weaknesses play well into the strength of the Pats, and I could see New England winning by 2 TDs.

Not to disagree with you - I think you have some valid points, but Jacksonville had 6 sacks last week against PIT - from six different players. That can't go unnoticed. It's an interesting match up, New England's passing offense vs. Jacksonville's pass defense. The needle leans towards New England here, but the reason why most of the passing yards against JAC has been high is because teams are playing catch up late in the game. I'd like to know what Jacksonville's pass defense numbers are in the 1st half compared to the 2nd half.Edit - Only one team has passed for more than 100 yards against JAC in the 1st half since week 10 - that was IND. Passing yards in the 1st half against JAC since week 10 include 162, 92, 90, 78, 78, 73, 63, 45 (in order of greatest to lowest)

Compare that to their 2nd half pass defense numbers of 219, 179, 133, 126, 83, 60, 56, 36 (in order of greatest to lowest)

 

[sheerterror]

Seattle +8 at Green Bay - I think the Seahawks can hang with the Packers and while they may lose in the end, I don't think it will be by more than 8 points. Brett Favre is a great QB, but he is also known for untimely INTs, especially in the 2nd half. Seattle is a pressuring defense with an excellent secondary. Advantage - SEA. I think the 8 points is too much. Seattle covers and may win if Favre's luck turns bad.

Jacksonvillle +13.5 at New England - Sure New England and Belichick have had 13 days to prepare for Jacksonville while Jacksonville has had only 6 days. However, New England's margin of victory has taken a hit over the last few weeks. Not including the Miami game, the Patriots have an 8.0 average margin of victory over their last five games, including three games where they won by three points. Jacksonville is no push over. Not including the week 17 no show against Houston, they have won seven straight games with wins over four playoff teams in that span. They can run the ball, dump off the ball to the open WR or RB, Garrard can run if needed, they can stop the run and they have one of the better cover corners in the league in Rashean Mathis. If New England wins at all, I just don't see a blow out of two TDs or more.

San Diego at Indianapolis -8.5 In their last meeting back in November, the Chargers won 23-21. However, they had two defense/ST TDs and their other TD came off of one of Peyton Manning's 6 INTs on the day. The Colts missed two FGs in that game, including the would-be game-winning gimme kick that Vinatieri shanked. Despite all of that - the Colts barely lost the game. That game was at San Diego, this game is in the dome at Indy. Peyton Manning will likely not throw six INTs again, which gave SD incredible field position of which they only managed one offensive TD. We're not sure what Marvin Harrison will bring to the table, but if anything it will take coverage away from other receivers. The Colts look like a solid pick here and they could win by 17 points or more, which is much more than the 8.5 they are laying.

NY Giants +7.5 at Dallas - Earlier in the week, I liked the Giants to cover here, but now I'm not so sure. I like the under 46.5 in this game, but I'm not confident. How often do we see teams go against the grain of the two previous games played earlier in the year? Meaning - this game, unlike the other two, will be lower scoring as opposed to a balanced game from both teams. I don't like this game as much as the other three, but if I had to go with a wager, I like NYG +7.5 and U46.5

I like all of these picks except for Jacksonville. As much as I would love to see New England get knocked off, and as much as the media wants us to believe Jacksonville is the team that can do it - I just don't think they can hold up defensively. The Jags are great at stopping the run on D, but they seem vulnerable to the pass. I don't know how they are statistically, but if last week is an accurate indicator, I think Brady lights them up. Of course, if the weather is bad, this will help equalize things a bit (the way it did against the Jets.) Anyway, seems like their weaknesses play well into the strength of the Pats, and I could see New England winning by 2 TDs.

Not to disagree with you - I think you have some valid points, but Jacksonville had 6 sacks last week against PIT - from six different players. That can't go unnoticed. It's an interesting match up, New England's passing offense vs. Jacksonville's pass defense. The needle leans towards New England here, but the reason why most of the passing yards against them has been high is because teams are playing catch up late in the game. I'd like to know what Jacksonville's pass defense numbers are in the 1st half compared to the 2nd half.

That's definitely a possibility I hadn't thought of. Another thing to consider is that Jacksonville may have trouble sustaining drives on offense. I like David Garrard a lot, but I see a lot of this being on his shoulders as I don't know just how effective the Jags will be able to run the ball. The strength of that team didn't do too well against the Steelers, another 3-4 team, last week (77 yards on 24 carries..excluding Garrard.)

 

[AllVolUT]

Seattle +8 at Green Bay - I think the Seahawks can hang with the Packers and while they may lose in the end, I don't think it will be by more than 8 points. Brett Favre is a great QB, but he is also known for untimely INTs, especially in the 2nd half. Seattle is a pressuring defense with an excellent secondary. Advantage - SEA. I think the 8 points is too much. Seattle covers and may win if Favre's luck turns bad.

Jacksonvillle +13.5 at New England - Sure New England and Belichick have had 13 days to prepare for Jacksonville while Jacksonville has had only 6 days. However, New England's margin of victory has taken a hit over the last few weeks. Not including the Miami game, the Patriots have an 8.0 average margin of victory over their last five games, including three games where they won by three points. Jacksonville is no push over. Not including the week 17 no show against Houston, they have won seven straight games with wins over four playoff teams in that span. They can run the ball, dump off the ball to the open WR or RB, Garrard can run if needed, they can stop the run and they have one of the better cover corners in the league in Rashean Mathis. If New England wins at all, I just don't see a blow out of two TDs or more.

San Diego at Indianapolis -8.5 In their last meeting back in November, the Chargers won 23-21. However, they had two defense/ST TDs and their other TD came off of one of Peyton Manning's 6 INTs on the day. The Colts missed two FGs in that game, including the would-be game-winning gimme kick that Vinatieri shanked. Despite all of that - the Colts barely lost the game. That game was at San Diego, this game is in the dome at Indy. Peyton Manning will likely not throw six INTs again, which gave SD incredible field position of which they only managed one offensive TD. We're not sure what Marvin Harrison will bring to the table, but if anything it will take coverage away from other receivers. The Colts look like a solid pick here and they could win by 17 points or more, which is much more than the 8.5 they are laying.

NY Giants +7.5 at Dallas - Earlier in the week, I liked the Giants to cover here, but now I'm not so sure. I like the under 46.5 in this game, but I'm not confident. How often do we see teams go against the grain of the two previous games played earlier in the year? Meaning - this game, unlike the other two, will be lower scoring as opposed to a balanced game from both teams. I don't like this game as much as the other three, but if I had to go with a wager, I like NYG +7.5 and U46.5

I like all of these picks except for Jacksonville. As much as I would love to see New England get knocked off, and as much as the media wants us to believe Jacksonville is the team that can do it - I just don't think they can hold up defensively. The Jags are great at stopping the run on D, but they seem vulnerable to the pass. I don't know how they are statistically, but if last week is an accurate indicator, I think Brady lights them up. Of course, if the weather is bad, this will help equalize things a bit (the way it did against the Jets.) Anyway, seems like their weaknesses play well into the strength of the Pats, and I could see New England winning by 2 TDs.

Not to disagree with you - I think you have some valid points, but Jacksonville had 6 sacks last week against PIT - from six different players. That can't go unnoticed. It's an interesting match up, New England's passing offense vs. Jacksonville's pass defense. The needle leans towards New England here, but the reason why most of the passing yards against them has been high is because teams are playing catch up late in the game. I'd like to know what Jacksonville's pass defense numbers are in the 1st half compared to the 2nd half.

That's definitely a possibility I hadn't thought of. Another thing to consider is that Jacksonville may have trouble sustaining drives on offense. I like David Garrard a lot, but I see a lot of this being on his shoulders as I don't know just how effective the Jags will be able to run the ball. The strength of that team didn't do too well against the Steelers, another 3-4 team, last week (77 yards on 24 carries..excluding Garrard.)

You're right. The strength of Jax didn't do great against Pitt....the second time around. During the season, Jax RBs pounded the Steelers. The Patriots ranked 10th in the league in rushing defense. After watching their games against McGahee and Jacobs, I see that as an inflated stat due to the fact that most teams abandon their run game - they give up an average of 4.4 yds/carry!! Also, Garrard ranks 3rd in the league in QB rating. The Jax O-Line on average gives up less than 2 sacks a game.

Haseley made an interesting point about the decline of the passing defense. The only other direct correlation I can make is that Mike Peterson went down Week 11 @ home against the Chargers. Whether or not that accounts for the discrepcy, I don't know.

 

[radballs]

I like the NFC dogs. I'd swap both of your AFC picks even though I despise the Pats. Chargers have enough to keep it within a TD.

 

[craxie]

2007 - Chargers by 2

2005 - Chargers by 9

2004 - Colts by 3 (OT)

1999 - Colts by 8

1998 - Colts by 5

P Manning has never beaten the Chargers by more than 8, it would be risky to predict he will now

plus the Chargers have held Manning to a lower cumulative QB rating than any other team in the NFL

Completion %: 57.6

Yards/Attempt: 7.1

Touchdowns: 8

Interceptions: 11

QB Rating: 71.2

http://peytonmanning18.com/eachteam.html

 

[The Man with the Plan]

I disagree with every one of those picks.

The Chargers for whatever reason always play the Colts tough. Might as well keep riding that wave.

The Cowboys beat the Giants the first two times this season by double digits. If TO's healthy I expect no different.

The Patriots are the greatest team of all time. The Jaguars are just another team. Pats win easily here.

The Packers and the Seahawks I'm not sure about. The Packers are just a better team so I'll go with them.

 

[Jeff Pasquino]

I may not be Jeff Pasquino, but here are my weekend picks

I'll post my picks later today.

 

[Perfect Tommy]

I like GB here. Favre is showing just how great he is this season. The whole team is playing well and is peaking at the right time. And SEA seems to have a hard time with GB. I expect the Packers to win by two touchdowns.

I'll agree with Jacksonville with the points. The Patriots are a paper tiger. They have their gaudy stats by running up scores. They have struggled to get their wins lately. I expect a tough game with NE probably pulling it out in the end as usual.

I also agree with NYG with the points. They have been playing very well lately while DAL has been struggling. Romo has shown himself susceptible to blunders. He has also had some great games. This is a tough one. I'll say DAL wins by a TD and the Giants barely cover.

I totally agree with IND over SD laying the points. SD is going backwards. Gates may not be healthy. IND is getting healthy and is a veteran playoff team and SB champions. This should be a blowout by three TDs.

 

[Bri]

Only one team has passed for more than 100 yards against JAC in the 1st half since week 10 - that was IND. Passing yards in the 1st half against JAC since week 10 include 162, 92, 90, 78, 78, 73, 63, 45 (in order of greatest to lowest)Compare that to their 2nd half pass defense numbers of 219, 179, 133, 126, 83, 60, 56, 36 (in order of greatest to lowest)

The Jags offense is run to control the clock. Several games that I saw started with long drive-punt by opp-long drive. After that, the opponent got it together usually but that certainly skews the first half stats.

 

[bicycle_seat_sniffer]

The Colts look like a solid pick here and they could win by 17 points or more

This isnt going to happenI'd be taking the bolts and the points here.

 

[Man in the yellow hat]

I posted this yesterday too, but it's not 'pressure' from the defense that forces Favre's mistakes in most instances. It's game situation. When Green Bay is behind, especially late 3rd quarter and 4th, Favre is not the same player as he was in his younger days. Rather than play within the offense, he takes tremendous risks and makes throws that he has no business making. When he was younger, he could physically get away with it. Not so anymore.

So the question is, do you think Green Bay will be trailing late in this game? If the answer is no, then I think the mistakes will be few and far between.

 

[msommer]

I may not be Jeff Pasquino, but here are my weekend picks

Let me get this straight. You are not sure?

 

[Godsbrother]

8 points is a lot but Seattle usually struggles on the road. Going to Lambeau in January? I think GB covers.

Jacksonville was very fortunate to come out with a win against the Steelers. The Steelers passing attack ripped the Jags secondary so the Patriots should shred it. The Patriots are solid on Special Teams (unlike the Steelers) and rarely make the kind of mistakes the Steelers did against Jacksonville. I see the Patriots in an easy win but 13.5 pts is a lot to give. If I had to bet I would take the Jags & the points but I wouldn't feel too good about it.

I like Indy over San Diego and would happily give the points. Gates is likely out and Rivers is going to struggle against a solid Indy defense. Peyton Manning will have his full arsenal back and they'll be able to score.

Eli has actually looked pretty good recently but I think he'll come back down to earth this week. Romo has had some monster games against the Giants this season. I am taking Dallas here and giving the points although I might reconsider if Owens doesn't play.

 

[Paddy O'Seanessy]

Not to disagree with you - I think you have some valid points, but Jacksonville had 6 sacks last week against PIT - from six different players. That can't go unnoticed. It's an interesting match up, New England's passing offense vs. Jacksonville's pass defense. The needle leans towards New England here, but the reason why most of the passing yards against JAC has been high is because teams are playing catch up late in the game. I'd like to know what Jacksonville's pass defense numbers are in the 1st half compared to the 2nd half.Edit - Only one team has passed for more than 100 yards against JAC in the 1st half since week 10 - that was IND. Passing yards in the 1st half against JAC since week 10 include 162, 92, 90, 78, 78, 73, 63, 45 (in order of greatest to lowest)

Compare that to their 2nd half pass defense numbers of 219, 179, 133, 126, 83, 60, 56, 36 (in order of greatest to lowest)

Isn't the Patriot MO to pass like they're trying to catch up from the first possession?Big spreads are bad for the Colts because they are not a go-for-the-throat team -- in the reqular season! They will cover because it's the playoffs and the Chargers aren't in their league.

Cowboys cover because EVERYONE is lining up behind Eli.

All that matters in the NFL is quarterback. Hence, I would pick against -- though I completely love the guy -- the one that failed in the Super Bowl against Denver, the Eagles in his last playoff game and the Cowboys in the mid-season show-down this year.

 

[Jeff Haseley]

I like GB here. Favre is showing just how great he is this season. The whole team is playing well and is peaking at the right time. And SEA seems to have a hard time with GB. I expect the Packers to win by two touchdowns.I'll agree with Jacksonville with the points. The Patriots are a paper tiger. They have their gaudy stats by running up scores. They have struggled to get their wins lately. I expect a tough game with NE probably pulling it out in the end as usual.I also agree with NYG with the points. They have been playing very well lately while DAL has been struggling. Romo has shown himself susceptible to blunders. He has also had some great games. This is a tough one. I'll say DAL wins by a TD and the Giants barely cover.I totally agree with IND over SD laying the points. SD is going backwards. Gates may not be healthy. IND is getting healthy and is a veteran playoff team and SB champions. This should be a blowout by three TDs.

This guy knows things. The worst he can do is 50%