I think McNabb has earned a spot in the Hall of Fame (1 Viewer)

[JuniorNB]

I was having this discussion on another board and would like to get some thoughts from this bunch....

Obviously, a non-Super Bowl winning QB has to have better numbers than a Super Bowl winning QB to get into the Hall of Fame. However, as guys like Dan Marino, Warren Moon, and Dan Fouts have proven, you can be good enough to get in without it.

If McNabb ends up winning a championship, this thread is pointless. Of course he gets in, but what if he never does?

I'll use Hall of Famer Dan Fouts as a case study and a comparison.

Dan Fouts- Hall of Fame Class of 1993 vs. Donovan McNabb- Future Hall of Famer

Regular Season Wins- Fouts 86 McNabb 82 and counting

Post Season Record- Fouts 3-4 McNabb 9-5

Regular Season Winning Percentage- Fouts .506 (86-84-1) McNabb .645 (82-45-1)

Career Passer Rating - Fouts 80.2 McNabb 85.9

___________________________________________________________________

Active QBs with most wins (Regular Season only)

1. Brett Favre 169-100 .628 pct

2. Peyton Manning 117-59 .665 pct

3. Tom Brady 87-24 .784 pct

4. Donovan Mcnabb 82-45-1 .645 pct



Guys he'll very-likely pass next year on the all-time wins list:

Roger Staubach (85 wins)

Dan Fouts (86)

Roman Gabriel (86)

Jim Hart (87)

Vinnie Testerverde (90)

This is a no-brainer. Fouts also had Charlie Joiner, John Jefferson and Kellen Winslow for most of his career. McNabb had Terreell Owens for one season.

 

[Godsbrother]

McNabb won't get in unless he wins a championship.

 

[Da Guru]

McNabb has never had All-Pro WRs, only had TO for a season and a half..and that probably took three years off his life.

McNabb has been very good for a long time.

 

[RockHard]

I dont care about the stats, he just doesnt pass the eyeball test.

Do you consider Drew Brees a HOF also?

Randall Cunningham was a much more dominant player IMO, and he hasnt sniffed the HOF

 

[Carter_Can_Fly]

Mcnabb does not have good enough stats to get in if he does not win a SB.

 

[dgreen]

I think he's definitely building an impressive resume. I wouldn't say it's either a "no brainer" as the OP says or that he won't get in without a SB.

He's clearly behind Manning and Brady in his era. When it's all said and done, how will he be compared to Warner, Roethlisberger, Brees, Eli, and a few others? QBs get into the HOF. How many will McNabb have to compete against?

 

[gianmarco]

Mcnabb does not have good enough stats to get in even if he does if he does not win a SB.

 

[JuniorNB]

I dont care about the stats, he just doesnt pass the eyeball test.

Do you consider Drew Brees a HOF also?

As of now, not even close.Regular Season- 55-51 .509 pct

Playoffs 1-2 .333 pct

Bress, however, is much younger and has many years ahead of him. He's also playing at a high level and I could certainly see him winning many more games and getting into teh playoffs many more times.

 

[David Yudkin]

Mcnabb does not have good enough stats to get in if he does not win a SB.

Let me be the first to introduce what will likely be the argument that Aikman had medicocre stats and made it to Canton. (I realize Troy had rings and McNabb has none).)I'm not convinced that earning a ring is a requirement to get in, as so many other factors could alter the outcome of winning a SB. For example, Peyton really didn't do a ton in the post season the year the Colts won, yet his regular season numbers have been stellar. If the Eagles win next week, that will make 5 NFCC appearances for McNabb. That has to be worth something.

 

[Tau837]

This was discussed in this thread several weeks ago: McNabb a HOFer?

A post of mine from that thread:

McNabb has never been 1st or 2nd team All Pro or won any major award. I agree with those who have posted that, fair or not, he is seen as a player who does not perform well under pressure, which is a tough stigma to overcome to get into the HOF. He has a relatively low completion percentage and TD percentage and a relatively high sack percentage. As a passer, the best thing you can say about him is he has an excellent interception percentage. His rushing ability makes up for that somewhat, but it's not enough.

As for the weak teams that he has supposedly had around him... First of all, he has played on a lot of good teams. His teams have had solid coaching, running games, TEs, and defenses. It's just the WRs that have been weak, other than when Owens was there... but other QBs have done better with poor WRs, as addressed previously.

I do think being a black QB will help him, since only one is in the HOF. Though I don't think it should. Ultimately, I still think he is not close as of now. As someone else said, he'll have to step it up significantly over the next several years to make a legitimate case.

I think Warner is far ahead of McNabb, and IMO Warner is a HOF bubble candidate who stand to push himself over the top with another MVP and/or strong playoff performance this season... and he wouldn't appear to be done either.

 

[Jason Wood]

I love Donnie Mac, I really do. I've defended him more times than I care to remember to people on this forum and to my buddies that sit with me at the games.

That said, he's not a HOF right now.

No Super Bowls

No MVPs

No 1st team All Pros

It's just not happening right now, particularly in an era [HOFers are always measured against their contemporaries] when passing efficiency and raw numbers are off the charts.

 

[gianmarco]

Career wins and passer rating are nice. Here are a couple other "key stats" that you kind of left off when comparing him to Marino and Fouts (and a couple others I added)

Career Passing TDs

Marino -- 2nd with 420

Fouts -- 12th with 254

McNabb -- 34th with 194

Kerry Collins -- 38th with 186

Career Passing Yards

Marino -- 2nd with 61,361

Fouts -- 9th with 43,040

Kerry Collins -- 14th with 37,393

McNabb -- 33rd with 29,320

Jake Plummer -- 34th with 29253

Now, he's only 32 so he could easily move those #'s up and eventually make it. But as of now, he's not even close statistically. A QB's win % and passer rating will not get him into the HOF without a SB win (or even just one). And that's particularly true for this era of QBs as he has some seriously stiff competition at QB as his contemporaries.

 

[David Yudkin]

I dont care about the stats, he just doesnt pass the eyeball test.

Do you consider Drew Brees a HOF also?

As of now, not even close.Regular Season- 55-51 .509 pct

Playoffs 1-2 .333 pct

Bress, however, is much younger and has many years ahead of him. He's also playing at a high level and I could certainly see him winning many more games and getting into teh playoffs many more times.

Part of issue for HOF balloting is that there are so many combination of factors that enter into the mix. There's winning games, career stats, Pro Bowl appearances, MVP Awards, post season performance, SB rings, etc. that not all players are going to have their credentials match up in all areas.Through age 29, Brees has the 6th most passing yards of all-time:

1 Peyton Manning 2769-4333-33189-244

2 Dan Marino 2480-4181-31416-241

3 Drew Bledsoe 2544-4518-29657-166

4 Brett Favre 2318-3757-26803-213

5 Drew Brees 2337-3653-26263-168

As you can see, Brees had a lot fewer attempts compared to Manning/Marino/Bledsoe, so with another year worth of playing his numbers would have been Top 3 yardage wise. Most would not induct Bledsoe, so big numbers on their own probably won't get Brees in but he has been pretty prolific, especially in New Orleans.

 

[Jason Wood]

QBs currently playing that I believe rank ahead of McNabb for HOF induction:

*** Brett Favre

*** Tom Brady

*** Peyton Manning

*** Kurt Warner

Now this kind of thing is fluid and there are factors that could increase or decrease McNabb's chances from here; not the least of which is how the next 5 years or so go for him and a number of other NFL QBs who are carving out solid careers.

For example, if Drew Brees wins a SB and continues his current pace; he would be right in line if not ahead of McNabb

For example, if Eli Manning wins another SB this year, he would be in his mid 20s and have 2 rings to his credit already

On the flip side if Donovan were to win the Bowl this year and/or continue to play well for another 3-5 years; this conversation would go differently.

 

[Chase Stuart]

lol@ "of course" McNabb gets in if he wins a championship.

 

[JuniorNB]

Career wins and passer rating are nice. Here are a couple other "key stats" that you kind of left off when comparing him to Marino and Fouts (and a couple others I added)

Career Passing TDs

Marino -- 2nd with 420

Fouts -- 12th with 254

McNabb -- 34th with 194

Kerry Collins -- 38th with 186

Career Passing Yards

Marino -- 2nd with 61,361

Fouts -- 9th with 43,040

Kerry Collins -- 14th with 37,393

McNabb -- 33rd with 29,320

Jake Plummer -- 34th with 29253

Now, he's only 32 so he could easily move those #'s up and eventually make it. But as of now, he's not even close statistically. A QB's win % and passer rating will not get him into the HOF without a SB win (or even just one). And that's particularly true for this era of QBs as he has some seriously stiff competition at QB as his contemporaries.

Career passing yards are a little misleading. Guys who play in deep-ball offenses (like Warner did with the Rams and Brees does now) are going to rack up tremendous amounts of yardage. Dan Fouts had Charlie Joiner, John Jefferson, and Kellen Winslow. They passed all the time. I don't even know who their running backs were (Lionel James, I think, but he was yet another pass receiver).I think McNabb's winning percentage, especially his playoff winning percentage, will overcome teh fact that he didn't put up the gaudy numbers. His passer rating is very good (14th all-time in the NFL)

 

[gianmarco]

Also, if you care to, go look at pro-football reference and look at the career passer lists for stats such as Passing TDs and Passing Yards and Passer Rating.

For Passing TDs and Passing Yds, the guys in the top 10 (with a couple of exceptions) are in the HOF. Beyond that, the guys listed in the HOF were from much earlier eras and had lots of things going for them such as Super Bowl wins, etc. (none of which McNabb has).

Then, pull up the career Passer Rating list: Career Passer Rating List

See anything odd about that? There are a TON of guys (most of them currently playing) that are above McNabb and most of them will never sniff the HOF. Passer rating is NOT a key measure of who gets into the HOF. Neither is career winning % unless it's off the charts. McNabb's isn't.

 

[Tau837]

I was having this discussion on another board and would like to get some thoughts from this bunch....

Obviously, a non-Super Bowl winning QB has to have better numbers than a Super Bowl winning QB to get into the Hall of Fame. However, as guys like Dan Marino, Warren Moon, and Dan Fouts have proven, you can be good enough to get in without it.

If McNabb ends up winning a championship, this thread is pointless. Of course he gets in, but what if he never does?

I'll use Hall of Famer Dan Fouts as a case study and a comparison.

Dan Fouts- Hall of Fame Class of 1993 vs. Donovan McNabb- Future Hall of Famer

Regular Season Wins- Fouts 86 McNabb 82 and counting

Post Season Record- Fouts 3-4 McNabb 9-5

Regular Season Winning Percentage- Fouts .506 (86-84-1) McNabb .645 (82-45-1)

Career Passer Rating - Fouts 80.2 McNabb 85.9

___________________________________________________________________

Active QBs with most wins (Regular Season only)

1. Brett Favre 169-100 .628 pct

2. Peyton Manning 117-59 .665 pct

3. Tom Brady 87-24 .784 pct

4. Donovan Mcnabb 82-45-1 .645 pct



Guys he'll very-likely pass next year on the all-time wins list:

Roger Staubach (85 wins)

Dan Fouts (86)

Roman Gabriel (86)

Jim Hart (87)

Vinnie Testerverde (90)

This is a no-brainer. Fouts also had Charlie Joiner, John Jefferson and Kellen Winslow for most of his career. McNabb had Terreell Owens for one season.

So basically your entire argument is based on winning. Wins and winning percentage, regular season and playoffs, all comes back to winning.You briefly mention QB rating in comparing McNabb and Fouts, but obviously that is apples to oranges, since you are comparing different eras. For example, even though McNabb has a higher career QB rating, he has only been in the top 10 in the NFL 5 times, and only in the top 5 in the NFL 2 times. Compare that to Fouts, who was in the top 8 for 8 straight seasons, including 5 times in the top 4.

I also notice that you cite no other statistics. I suppose that is because McNabb's statistics don't help his case.

And, of course, there are no awards or honors to cite. Unless you want to count Pro Bowls. McNabb has 5 of those, but we all know Pro Bowl selections are a poor metric. (Just look at Favre making it over Rivers this year, for example.)

Back to the winning. How much credit should a QB get? There are those around here who suggest 15%, presumably based on the fact that there are 10 other starters on offense, 11 on defense, plus special teams and coaching, all of which contribute to winning and losing. As an example of this, consider the fact that McNabb has generally had above average coaching, defenses, and running games. I think he has generally had solid OLs and TEs, but I'm less certain of that. Sure, WR has often been weak, but that's a small part of the team as affects winning.

Now, obviously the media tends to give QBs more credit for wins and blame for losses than they deserve. So McNabb will likely be credited with being a winner in the manner you have credited him here. But if that is the extent of his case, it is not close to enough.

 

[JuniorNB]

lol@ "of course" McNabb gets in if he wins a championship.

Sorry, but you're wrong. If he happens to get one this year (a big 'if', I know) that would make him 12-5 all-time in playoff games with two Super Bowl appearances and a championship. That, coupled with his carrer passer rating and consistency will make him a shoe-in.

 

[David Yudkin]

His passer rating is very good (14th all-time in the NFL)

Another quasi non-comparible stat.From PFR, he ranks 18th all-time. Yet he ranks only 14th among ACTIVE qualifying QBs.

 

[Tau837]

Career wins and passer rating are nice. Here are a couple other "key stats" that you kind of left off when comparing him to Marino and Fouts (and a couple others I added)

Career Passing TDs

Marino -- 2nd with 420

Fouts -- 12th with 254

McNabb -- 34th with 194

Kerry Collins -- 38th with 186

Career Passing Yards

Marino -- 2nd with 61,361

Fouts -- 9th with 43,040

Kerry Collins -- 14th with 37,393

McNabb -- 33rd with 29,320

Jake Plummer -- 34th with 29253

Now, he's only 32 so he could easily move those #'s up and eventually make it. But as of now, he's not even close statistically. A QB's win % and passer rating will not get him into the HOF without a SB win (or even just one). And that's particularly true for this era of QBs as he has some seriously stiff competition at QB as his contemporaries.

Career passing yards are a little misleading. Guys who play in deep-ball offenses (like Warner did with the Rams and Brees does now) are going to rack up tremendous amounts of yardage. Dan Fouts had Charlie Joiner, John Jefferson, and Kellen Winslow. They passed all the time. I don't even know who their running backs were (Lionel James, I think, but he was yet another pass receiver).I think McNabb's winning percentage, especially his playoff winning percentage, will overcome teh fact that he didn't put up the gaudy numbers. His passer rating is very good (14th all-time in the NFL)

You say Fouts passed all the time... perhaps you'll find this interesting. Career attempts per game:McNabb 32.11

Fouts 30.96

 

[gianmarco]

His passer rating is very good (14th all-time in the NFL)

Umm, no it's not. In fact, there are currently 13 active QBs in the NFL with a higher career passer rating than McNabb. 12 of those make up 12 of the top 13 OVERALL career passer ratings. He's 18th overall on the list. That should tell you something about how meaningful passer rating is in terms of significance in HOF entry.

 

[gonzobill5]

Doesn't have the stats? I think Jim Kelly is a pretty good comparison for a lot of reasons

Kelly

11 seasons - 160 games

35467 yards

237 TDs

175 Ints

84.4 passer rating

McNabb

10 seasons - 134 games

29320 yards

194 TDs

90 Ints

85.9 passer rating

(let's not even mention his rushing stats)

In two more years he'll have Kelly beat in every category, and his playoff record is almost as impressive.

 

[Ministry of Pain]

Fouts threw for 4,000+ yds in 3 straight seasons...79-81, was involved in perhaps the greatest playoff game of all time with Miami, threw for 24+ TD in 4 sraight years '78-'81...several of those streaks would have extended into 1982 but that year was only 9 games due to the strike. From '79--83 he avg 255+ yds a game thru the air which for the time he played in was amazing...most of that streak was at the 290-320 per game average actually. From 1979-1985 he went to the Pro Bowl 6 out of those 7 years.

Fouts today...might not get in, but considering he played almost 30 years ago...the game has changed a lot. He was the beginning of the air it out era.

McNabb has never thrown for 4,000 yds, only passed 30 TD once, next best was 25, and for a guy that throws as often as he does...

Just doesn't add up right now.

 

[JuniorNB]

Let's not forget, since people are pulling out carrer yardage stats, that McNabb could very well have 5 more years as a starter. At 3000-3500 yards per season, he'll be right there with a lot of the Hall of Famers being mentioned.

As for McNabb's pass attempts per game, other than the one year he had Owens, his passes are usually in the 5-15 yard range. You aren't going to put up many 400 yard games that way.

As most of you have said, a lot of this hinges on the way he plays for teh rest of his career. If he wins a Super Bowl, he's a no brainer, IMO. If he never wins the Super Bowl, but hhe continues to play at his current level for a few more years and leads his team to even more playoff games, I think he's still in.

Consistency is also rewarded in the HOF. There are many non-title winning QBs in.

 

[dgreen]

lol@ "of course" McNabb gets in if he wins a championship.

Let's play the What If game.What if McNabb played 48 more regular seasons games (3 seasons) at his current pace? His career numbers would be 39,823 yards, 263 TDs, and 122 INTs. And, what if he won a SB? His stats and winning accomplishments would be on par with Steve Young who finished with 33,124, 232, and 107. No, I'm not saying I'd consider McNabb as good as Young, but a SB and a few more typical McNabb seasons would complete a very impressive resume.

 

[Jason Wood]

lol@ "of course" McNabb gets in if he wins a championship.

Sorry, but you're wrong. If he happens to get one this year (a big 'if', I know) that would make him 12-5 all-time in playoff games with two Super Bowl appearances and a championship. That, coupled with his carrer passer rating and consistency will make him a shoe-in.

He absolutely won't be a shoe-in, but his case will dramatically improve.

Doesn't have the stats? I think Jim Kelly is a pretty good comparison for a lot of reasonsKelly 11 seasons - 160 games35467 yards237 TDs175 Ints84.4 passer ratingMcNabb10 seasons - 134 games29320 yards194 TDs90 Ints85.9 passer rating(let's not even mention his rushing stats)In two more years he'll have Kelly beat in every category, and his playoff record is almost as impressive.

I think Jim Kelly is the best comparable in building a case for McNabb, well done. That said, I remember thinking "Jim Kelly? Really?" when he got inducted. Kelly finished his career with 4 Pro Bowls, 1 All Pro and zero MVP awards or SB rings. He did, of course, go to 4 straight SBs which is pretty ridiculous.

 

[dgreen]

I also notice that you cite no other statistics. I suppose that is because McNabb's statistics don't help his case.

He has a sick TD:INT ratio.

 

[David Yudkin]

Doesn't have the stats? I think Jim Kelly is a pretty good comparison for a lot of reasonsKelly 11 seasons - 160 games35467 yards237 TDs175 Ints84.4 passer ratingMcNabb10 seasons - 134 games29320 yards194 TDs90 Ints85.9 passer rating(let's not even mention his rushing stats)In two more years he'll have Kelly beat in every category, and his playoff record is almost as impressive.

Not to climb all over you specifically, but IMO comparing guys that played in different eras is a sure fire way to make a convincing argument for anyone. McNabb's stats will look tasty against Bradshaw, Namath, and many other HOF QBs as well.THe real question is how McNabb compares against his contemporaries, not guys that played a generation before him. As mentioned several times already, McNabb's passer rating (for whatever that's worth) ranks 14th among active QBs. So yes, he bests Kelly but there are several other guys currently ahead of him including Chad Pennington. SHould we induct Pennington because he has a higher passer rating than Kelly?

 

[Jason Wood]

lol@ "of course" McNabb gets in if he wins a championship.

Let's play the What If game.What if McNabb played 48 more regular seasons games (3 seasons) at his current pace? His career numbers would be 39,823 yards, 263 TDs, and 122 INTs. And, what if he won a SB? His stats and winning accomplishments would be on par with Steve Young who finished with 33,124, 232, and 107. No, I'm not saying I'd consider McNabb as good as Young, but a SB and a few more typical McNabb seasons would complete a very impressive resume.

But that's getting away from the point of this thread, which was about McNabb being HOF worthy NOW. There's no bigger what-if than saying, "let's say he wins a Super Bowl." As much as I want the Birds to get it done, they are the 6th seed and have fallen short before with better teams.At the end of his career, I think there's a good chance he'll be HOF-worthy; but he needs to accomplish quite a bit between now and then. Another 48 regular season games with no SB ring, no MVP award and no All Pro appearances and he still won't make it in.

 

[Chicago Hooligan]

I looked up Jim Kelly as well after opening the thread. I didn't realize he was a first-ballot inductee. Right now, McNabb is definitely not a first-ballot candidate. He may not have to win a SB but I think he at least needs to get to another. It's a better bet than hoping to rack up stats for 3 or 4 more years - I dunno how long his health will hold up.

 

[gonzobill5]

lol@ "of course" McNabb gets in if he wins a championship.

Sorry, but you're wrong. If he happens to get one this year (a big 'if', I know) that would make him 12-5 all-time in playoff games with two Super Bowl appearances and a championship. That, coupled with his carrer passer rating and consistency will make him a shoe-in.

He absolutely won't be a shoe-in, but his case will dramatically improve.

Doesn't have the stats? I think Jim Kelly is a pretty good comparison for a lot of reasonsKelly 11 seasons - 160 games35467 yards237 TDs175 Ints84.4 passer ratingMcNabb10 seasons - 134 games29320 yards194 TDs90 Ints85.9 passer rating(let's not even mention his rushing stats)In two more years he'll have Kelly beat in every category, and his playoff record is almost as impressive.

I think Jim Kelly is the best comparable in building a case for McNabb, well done. That said, I remember thinking "Jim Kelly? Really?" when he got inducted. Kelly finished his career with 4 Pro Bowls, 1 All Pro and zero MVP awards or SB rings. He did, of course, go to 4 straight SBs which is pretty ridiculous.

That's funny, because as I was typing it I was thinking, why the hell is Jim Kelly in the Hall of Fame anyway?

 

[JuniorNB]

Fouts threw for 4,000+ yds in 3 straight seasons...79-81, was involved in perhaps the greatest playoff game of all time with Miami, threw for 24+ TD in 4 sraight years '78-'81...several of those streaks would have extended into 1982 but that year was only 9 games due to the strike. From '79--83 he avg 255+ yds a game thru the air which for the time he played in was amazing...most of that streak was at the 290-320 per game average actually. From 1979-1985 he went to the Pro Bowl 6 out of those 7 years. Fouts today...might not get in, but considering he played almost 30 years ago...the game has changed a lot. He was the beginning of the air it out era. McNabb has never thrown for 4,000 yds, only passed 30 TD once, next best was 25, and for a guy that throws as often as he does...Just doesn't add up right now.

As stated, there are many ways to judge a quarterback. If 4000 yard seasons are the only standard, then no. McNabb will not get in. Drew Brees came within inches of setting teh all-time single season passing record this year and his team finished 8-8. An offense can dictate what kind of numbers a QB puts up. Losing games also helps, since good teams are usually running in teh second half of games, while bad teams are throwing every down, many btimes against prevent defenses.As stated, Fouts was 86-84 as a starter.As also stated, McNabb has accomplished what he has with 'weapons' like James Thrash, Quinn Early, and Reggie Brown. Kevin Curtis (who isn't exactly Hall of Fame or even Pro Bowl material) may be the second best receiver McNabb has ever thrown to, (Of course we all know who his best was, and how long that lasted).

 

[dgreen]

lol@ "of course" McNabb gets in if he wins a championship.

Let's play the What If game.What if McNabb played 48 more regular seasons games (3 seasons) at his current pace? His career numbers would be 39,823 yards, 263 TDs, and 122 INTs. And, what if he won a SB? His stats and winning accomplishments would be on par with Steve Young who finished with 33,124, 232, and 107. No, I'm not saying I'd consider McNabb as good as Young, but a SB and a few more typical McNabb seasons would complete a very impressive resume.

But that's getting away from the point of this thread, which was about McNabb being HOF worthy NOW.

Well, I considered that claim to be pretty stupid so I think it's best to move on to: What does he need to do to get in?

 

[JuniorNB]

I looked up Jim Kelly as well after opening the thread. I didn't realize he was a first-ballot inductee. Right now, McNabb is definitely not a first-ballot candidate. He may not have to win a SB but I think he at least needs to get to another. It's a better bet than hoping to rack up stats for 3 or 4 more years - I dunno how long his health will hold up.

You better hope his health holds up, he may be your quaterback (assuming you're a Bears fan).

 

[dgreen]

THe real question is how McNabb compares against his contemporaries, not guys that played a generation before him. As mentioned several times already, McNabb's passer rating (for whatever that's worth) ranks 14th among active QBs. So yes, he bests Kelly but there are several other guys currently ahead of him including Chad Pennington. SHould we induct Pennington because he has a higher passer rating than Kelly?

Yes, he's currently 14th. And that happens to be ahead of Favre. The longer you play, the lower you move down the active rankings in stats like passer rating. Most of the players ahead of McNabb are younger than he is.

 

[Chase Stuart]

The league average QB rating has changed so dramatically over the years that it's silly to use that to compare QBs across different eras. Here is my list of QBs when ranking them purely based on their individual stats, and not things like winning percentage or strength of teammates. Obviously QBs that played with great teammates or great offensive systems will be helped out, and QBs that had horrible teammates will be hurt. Playoff statistics are included in this list, which was created before the 2008 season.

The number on the right shows their rank based on their regular season success, i.e., if playoff numbers were excluded. Asterisks are next to players with incomplete playoff data or that are active.

Rk Rating RegRk1 Joe Montana 9586 52 Steve Young 8775 33 Dan Marino 8737 14 Peyton Manning* 8100 25 Fran Tarkenton* 6735 46 Dan Fouts 6661 67 Roger Staubach 6483 98 Ken Anderson 6468 89 Johnny Unitas* 6269 710 Brett Favre* 5793 1111 Len Dawson* 5683 1012 John Elway 5040 1513 Kurt Warner 4778 1814 Norm Van Brocklin* 4688 1215 Bart Starr* 4570 1616 Sonny Jurgensen* 4448 1317 Terry Bradshaw 4410 3918 Tom Brady 4307 1919 Troy Aikman 4304 3720 Otto Graham* 4250 1421 Daryle Lamonica* 4083 2722 Warren Moon 3909 2123 Boomer Esiason 3857 1724 Roman Gabriel* 3826 2025 Trent Green 3693 2226 Sid Luckman* 3667 2327 Y.A. Tittle* 3632 2528 John Hadl* 3620 2429 Jim Hart* 3579 2630 Steve McNair 3475 2831 Joe Namath* 3427 3032 Jeff Garcia* 3344 2933 Sammy Baugh* 3305 3234 Daunte Culpepper 3149 3335 Ken Stabler 3098 4936 Bob Griese 3096 4037 John Brodie* 3030 3538 Rich Gannon 3019 3139 Bert Jones 2997 3640 Donovan McNabb 2702 38Outside of Ken Anderson and Kurt Warner (and both of them are arguable HOFs), everyone in the top 20 is or will be in the HOF. That's a good indicator that this system is pretty good at predicting who makes the cut. Moon at 22, Luckman at 26, Tittle at 27, Namath at 31 and Baugh at 33 rank outside the top 30, but we know why all of those guys made the HOF. Kelly ranks 34th when you look at regular season numbers and 46th when you include playoff success -- I think he got in because of the 4 SB appearances, and his raw numbers looked very impressive when he retired. He only played in 160 games, which hurts his standing, too. Griese has the rings and was in a different era, and Layne and Blanda were from even farther back.That's the complete list of HOF QBs.

Obviously McNabb is at the back end of this list. A great post-season could bump him up significantly, but I think he'll need quite a few more good seasons. Why McNabb and not Boomer Esiason? Why not Roman Gabriel? Why not Trent Green or Rich Gannon? Is he better than Daryl Lamonica or Ken Stabler? Steve McNair may have a better case because of the MVP, and as a contemporary, that could hurt him.

 

[Ministry of Pain]

Doesn't have the stats? I think Jim Kelly is a pretty good comparison for a lot of reasonsKelly 11 seasons - 160 games35467 yards237 TDs175 Ints84.4 passer ratingMcNabb10 seasons - 134 games29320 yards194 TDs90 Ints85.9 passer rating(let's not even mention his rushing stats)In two more years he'll have Kelly beat in every category, and his playoff record is almost as impressive.

Jim Kelly went to 4 straight Super Bowls, bad comparison IMHO. Not 4 CC, 4 Super Bowls...he destroyed teams in the playoffs, the Bills were truly one of the best teasm to ever not win a Super Bowl, they should have built a dynasty. Kelly was the mastermind of the "K" Gun which was named after Kelly...haven't heard about the "M" Gun much.Not trying to be a ####, just being honest...and a lifelong Dolphin fan I had to watch a lot of those Buffalo teams escort us out of the playoffs.

 

[Chicago Hooligan]

I looked up Jim Kelly as well after opening the thread. I didn't realize he was a first-ballot inductee. Right now, McNabb is definitely not a first-ballot candidate. He may not have to win a SB but I think he at least needs to get to another. It's a better bet than hoping to rack up stats for 3 or 4 more years - I dunno how long his health will hold up.

You better hope his health holds up, he may be your quaterback (assuming you're a Bears fan).

Nah, Packers fan. I live in Chicago. And while I like McNabb, I think the talk of bringing him "home" to play won't pan out (we heard it about the Bulls making a move for Kevin Garnett for a few NBA seasons, too). If he leaves Philly I think McNabb could put up major numbers for a dome team.

 

[gonzobill5]

Fouts threw for 4,000+ yds in 3 straight seasons...79-81, was involved in perhaps the greatest playoff game of all time with Miami, threw for 24+ TD in 4 sraight years '78-'81...several of those streaks would have extended into 1982 but that year was only 9 games due to the strike. From '79--83 he avg 255+ yds a game thru the air which for the time he played in was amazing...most of that streak was at the 290-320 per game average actually. From 1979-1985 he went to the Pro Bowl 6 out of those 7 years. Fouts today...might not get in, but considering he played almost 30 years ago...the game has changed a lot. He was the beginning of the air it out era. McNabb has never thrown for 4,000 yds, only passed 30 TD once, next best was 25, and for a guy that throws as often as he does...Just doesn't add up right now.

As stated, there are many ways to judge a quarterback. If 4000 yard seasons are the only standard, then no. McNabb will not get in. Drew Brees came within inches of setting teh all-time single season passing record this year and his team finished 8-8. An offense can dictate what kind of numbers a QB puts up. Losing games also helps, since good teams are usually running in teh second half of games, while bad teams are throwing every down, many btimes against prevent defenses.As stated, Fouts was 86-84 as a starter.As also stated, McNabb has accomplished what he has with 'weapons' like James Thrash, Quinn Early, and Reggie Brown. Kevin Curtis (who isn't exactly Hall of Fame or even Pro Bowl material) may be the second best receiver McNabb has ever thrown to, (Of course we all know who his best was, and how long that lasted).

What's a Quinn Early? Subtract him, and add Greg Lewis, Todd Pinkston, Torrence Small, Charles Johnson, Fred Ex, Na Brown, a 45 y/o Antonio Freeman, and Billy McMullen.

 

[Ministry of Pain]

Fouts threw for 4,000+ yds in 3 straight seasons...79-81, was involved in perhaps the greatest playoff game of all time with Miami, threw for 24+ TD in 4 sraight years '78-'81...several of those streaks would have extended into 1982 but that year was only 9 games due to the strike. From '79--83 he avg 255+ yds a game thru the air which for the time he played in was amazing...most of that streak was at the 290-320 per game average actually. From 1979-1985 he went to the Pro Bowl 6 out of those 7 years. Fouts today...might not get in, but considering he played almost 30 years ago...the game has changed a lot. He was the beginning of the air it out era. McNabb has never thrown for 4,000 yds, only passed 30 TD once, next best was 25, and for a guy that throws as often as he does...Just doesn't add up right now.

As stated, there are many ways to judge a quarterback. If 4000 yard seasons are the only standard, then no. McNabb will not get in. Drew Brees came within inches of setting teh all-time single season passing record this year and his team finished 8-8. An offense can dictate what kind of numbers a QB puts up. Losing games also helps, since good teams are usually running in teh second half of games, while bad teams are throwing every down, many btimes against prevent defenses.As stated, Fouts was 86-84 as a starter.As also stated, McNabb has accomplished what he has with 'weapons' like James Thrash, Quinn Early, and Reggie Brown. Kevin Curtis (who isn't exactly Hall of Fame or even Pro Bowl material) may be the second best receiver McNabb has ever thrown to, (Of course we all know who his best was, and how long that lasted).

I was only responding because people were posting Dan Fouts...go pull up their stats on profootballreference and look at them side by side...there is no comparison. McNabb doesn't stand out at all. Fantasy Football is clouding folks jusdgement on what is a HoF Qb I am afraid.

 

[Chase Stuart]

Let's not forget, since people are pulling out carrer yardage stats, that McNabb could very well have 5 more years as a starter. At 3000-3500 yards per season, he'll be right there with a lot of the Hall of Famers being mentioned.As for McNabb's pass attempts per game, other than the one year he had Owens, his passes are usually in the 5-15 yard range. You aren't going to put up many 400 yard games that way.As most of you have said, a lot of this hinges on the way he plays for teh rest of his career. If he wins a Super Bowl, he's a no brainer, IMO. If he never wins the Super Bowl, but hhe continues to play at his current level for a few more years and leads his team to even more playoff games, I think he's still in.Consistency is also rewarded in the HOF. There are many non-title winning QBs in.

If McNabb passes for another 17,000 passing yards, then things change quite a bit. I thought we were looking at things as they stand now.

 

[beachbum]

When looking at his stats compared to other players (and eras) historically we must acknowledge that his numbers are also skewed by playing in an era with enhanced passing stats ... that said McNabb is a fine QB, but should not get into the HOF without a Superbowl win and/or 4-5 more years of the 3000+ yards, 17+ TDs

 

[Mr Capicollo]

When looking at his stats compared to other players (and eras) historically we must acknowledge that his numbers are also skewed by playing in an era with enhanced passing stats ... that said McNabb is a fine QB, but should not get into the HOF without a Superbowl win and/or 4-5 more years of the 3000+ yards, 17+ TDs

Said another way, was there ever a year during McNabb's career where you'd have said that he was the best or even second best at his position? I'm having trouble thinking of when that would be. And as long as we're comparing him to contemporaries, he has a below average completion %, a key stat in this pass-first era. I've also never been a fan of how many games he's missed.

 

[gonzobill5]

Doesn't have the stats? I think Jim Kelly is a pretty good comparison for a lot of reasonsKelly 11 seasons - 160 games35467 yards237 TDs175 Ints84.4 passer ratingMcNabb10 seasons - 134 games29320 yards194 TDs90 Ints85.9 passer rating(let's not even mention his rushing stats)In two more years he'll have Kelly beat in every category, and his playoff record is almost as impressive.

Jim Kelly went to 4 straight Super Bowls, bad comparison IMHO. Not 4 CC, 4 Super Bowls...he destroyed teams in the playoffs, the Bills were truly one of the best teasm to ever not win a Super Bowl, they should have built a dynasty. Kelly was the mastermind of the "K" Gun which was named after Kelly...haven't heard about the "M" Gun much.Not trying to be a ####, just being honest...and a lifelong Dolphin fan I had to watch a lot of those Buffalo teams escort us out of the playoffs.

The Bills were the best team in the AFC while the NFC was dominant, the Birds were the best team in the NFC while the AFC was dominant (my opinion, of course).

 

[Jeff Pasquino]

Um, no.

This is a different era - one in which it is pass first.

Dan Fouts pre-dates the WCO and Bill Walsh. Different era.

Just like you can't compare Babe Ruth's dominance in his era to today based solely on his numbers. He hit more homers than several TEAMS - and he pitched.

This is the era of the pass first, pass second, consider the run (and the RBBC) on occasion - and when you run, hope for your tailback to break a big one.

This is not the 25-30 carry, 3 yards and a cloud of dust era.

Fouts was in a pass-happy offense, I know - but it still was a different era.

 

[JuniorNB]

Fouts threw for 4,000+ yds in 3 straight seasons...79-81, was involved in perhaps the greatest playoff game of all time with Miami, threw for 24+ TD in 4 sraight years '78-'81...several of those streaks would have extended into 1982 but that year was only 9 games due to the strike. From '79--83 he avg 255+ yds a game thru the air which for the time he played in was amazing...most of that streak was at the 290-320 per game average actually. From 1979-1985 he went to the Pro Bowl 6 out of those 7 years. Fouts today...might not get in, but considering he played almost 30 years ago...the game has changed a lot. He was the beginning of the air it out era. McNabb has never thrown for 4,000 yds, only passed 30 TD once, next best was 25, and for a guy that throws as often as he does...Just doesn't add up right now.

As stated, there are many ways to judge a quarterback. If 4000 yard seasons are the only standard, then no. McNabb will not get in. Drew Brees came within inches of setting teh all-time single season passing record this year and his team finished 8-8. An offense can dictate what kind of numbers a QB puts up. Losing games also helps, since good teams are usually running in teh second half of games, while bad teams are throwing every down, many btimes against prevent defenses.As stated, Fouts was 86-84 as a starter.As also stated, McNabb has accomplished what he has with 'weapons' like James Thrash, Quinn Early, and Reggie Brown. Kevin Curtis (who isn't exactly Hall of Fame or even Pro Bowl material) may be the second best receiver McNabb has ever thrown to, (Of course we all know who his best was, and how long that lasted).

I was only responding because people were posting Dan Fouts...go pull up their stats on profootballreference and look at them side by side...there is no comparison. McNabb doesn't stand out at all. Fantasy Football is clouding folks jusdgement on what is a HoF Qb I am afraid.

I use things like winning perecentage, playoff winning percentage and passer ratings because it takes longevity out of the equation. Fouts played an entire career, while McNabb has quite a few years left to play. Once the dust settles, the career stats will be much closer.

 

[Mr Capicollo]

Fouts was in a pass-happy offense, I know - but it still was a different era.

I agree, and just to elaborate a bit, that different era had far looser rules regarding pass interference and no illegal contact penalties, not to mention rules protecting QB's themselves from contact.

 

[Chase Stuart]

Doesn't have the stats? I think Jim Kelly is a pretty good comparison for a lot of reasonsKelly 11 seasons - 160 games35467 yards237 TDs175 Ints84.4 passer ratingMcNabb10 seasons - 134 games29320 yards194 TDs90 Ints85.9 passer rating(let's not even mention his rushing stats)In two more years he'll have Kelly beat in every category, and his playoff record is almost as impressive.

Jim Kelly went to 4 straight Super Bowls, bad comparison IMHO. Not 4 CC, 4 Super Bowls...he destroyed teams in the playoffs, the Bills were truly one of the best teasm to ever not win a Super Bowl, they should have built a dynasty. Kelly was the mastermind of the "K" Gun which was named after Kelly...haven't heard about the "M" Gun much.Not trying to be a ####, just being honest...and a lifelong Dolphin fan I had to watch a lot of those Buffalo teams escort us out of the playoffs.

I think your memory is fading a bit, GB. Kelly's biggest blemish is his ugly post-season performances.The other thing about Kelly is while I think people remember him being great in '90 and making 4 straight SBs, they think he was great for four straight years. That really wasn't the case -- he was awesome in '90 and then slowly started declining. By '93 he wasn't even very good.

 

[gianmarco]

I use things like winning perecentage, playoff winning percentage and passer ratings because it takes longevity out of the equation.

That's nice and all. Problem is, the HOF doesn't.