I think you're screwed at 12 (1 Viewer)

[Darcimer]

Ok,

Somebody talk me off the ledge. This year's quality seems to be pretty deep at both RB and WR this year, and QBs, frankly after QB1, fall into a pretty decent tier of guys you can grab later.

So I revved up the draft dominator and ran a few ( hundred) mock drafts. Drafting at 12 seems that the depth is an advantage for the guys at the end of round 2/beginning round 3 (slots 1 and 2). No matter what I do at 1.12/2.01, the draft dominator is getting stacked teams at the 1 and 2 spots. Of course, I realize that the DD is non-thinking, but it's making relatively decent and reasonable picks.

I feel like my only option here is to outwit the projections and exploit the mistakes. ( I have no problem with that, but I'd feel better with a little more ammo). But it looks to me like the beginning of your draft is not the place to make the great calls. Just play it safe for the first few rounds. The only way I can get close is to go RB/WR, then RB/RB, then RB/WR or WR/WR. 7 and 8 look like a nice place to start thinking QB and TE. There wil be few Rb left at the 7/8 turn, but few decent WRs.

The rest of camp will be critical for the 12 slot. Mike/Tatum Bell, Barlow/Gore, Julius Jones/Barber, Houston/Blaylock, Chris Brown/White, Benson/Jones---Is there a stud anywhere in this group??

 

[Keys Myaths]

Go Reggie Bush/Chester Taylor.

No other option, I'm afraid.

 

[Scruff Mcgruff]

Steve Smith/ Torry Holt.

I think it is the riskiest but the best value.

 

[longlip]

is that with the 1.12 and 2.1 or 3.12 and 4.1....bush will not make it 4.1 and prob not chester either.....dunn and deshaun will be there....

im in same postion...im torn ... s smith and caddy then droughns and plax or s moss..or s smith and caddy then s moss and plax...then in 5.12 and 6.1 have to go rb rb...high risk high reward...

QUOTE(The Jerk @ Jul 19 2006, 08:33 PM)

There are at least six reasonable ways to play drafting at the 12-13 turn, assuming a start 2 RB, 3 WR league. I have listed them in the order of most conservative to least conservative below:

1. RB-RB, WR-RB Offers the best opportunity to have a strong running game

2. RB-WR, RB-RB Should get a top 10-12 RB, top 3 WR and a good shot at a decent RB2

3. RB-RB, WR-WR Potentially two top 12 RB and two top 12 WR

4. RB-WR, RB-WR The most balanced approach, should have four quality starters

5. RB-WR, WR-WR Rolling the dice on finding a serviceable RB2 later

6. WR-WR, RB-WR WR overload, going against the grain, but tough uphill battle on RBs

I would try to use approach #3 or #4 in most leagues, but a lot depends on the talent available, the league in which I am competing, and the flow of the draft.

In one of my leagues, only half of the teams have shark owners while another half are unpredictable and/or less competitive on average. In this league, I will consider becoming more conservative as I expect to be among the leaders as long as I don't make multiple mistakes. So maybe I choose approach #2 or even #1.

In another league, competition is extremely close every year, so I just may be more aggressive, going against the grain, trying to give myself an edge. So perhaps #5 would enter consideration although probably not #6. If I use this approach, then come rounds 5-6 I'll be looking to snag a pair of players like Addai/Rhodes or TENN or JAX or SF. I know I'll be likely taking a hit at RB2, but if my RB committee works out, I'll be hard to beat considering my strength at WR. Even if RB2 flops, perhaps my WR strength will cancel out my RB weakness.

Looking at #5 a little bit deeper, 35 picks will have occurred before team 12 gets their 3rd rounder. If each other teams has drafted 2 RBs, and at least Manning and Gates are gone, then at most 10 WRs will have been drafted. So theoretically, team 12 could have a top 10-12 RB (drafted at the first turn) along with a top 3 WR plus two more top 12 WR.

If you choose #4, then you end up with a top 10-12 RB and a top 3 WR from the first turn, then likely RB 24 or so along with a top 12 WR. Your next WR probably fits anywhere between WR 20 and WR 25. So would you rather have:

#4: RB 10, RB 24, WR 3, WR 11, WR 24

or

#5: RB 10, RB 30, WR3, WR11, WR12

Considering that the “RB30” could be a team or relay RB with the potential to hit the top 20 as the situation resolves, I am tempted to go with approach #5. Risky, yes. But there's a chance to be dominant if the RB2 works out sometime during the year.

this is interesting..

 

[Keys Myaths]

is that with the 1.12 and 2.1 or 3.12 and 4.1....bush will not make it 4.1 and prob not chester either.....dunn and deshaun will be there....

I was kidding.

 

[longlip]

thought u were,,,read many of your post and u seem to know what your talking about....

 

[Doctor Detroit]

Is this a PPR? If it is you can likely get Westbrook and a WR there. I got Westbrook and Chad Johnson at 12 (I traded down) and I had those guys at seven and eight overall in this scoring system (PPR w flex). I knew I would be able to get these two so I did the trade thinking I'd put myself in a better position in the following rounds. If it's not a PPr then you have to dig deep and look at two players that are somewhat dependable since those guys will need to give you solid numbers to compete. Just do your projections and feel confident you can come away with the two best guys on your list. I wouldn't take two WRs in any format here but I would seriously consider your #1 WR in both. If someone takes that WR, you just got a RB.

 

[John Mamula]

there is a lot of value that will drop to the 12 slot.

if you can't see that i would re-evaluate your rankings.

 

[Keys Myaths]

thought u were,,,read many of your post and u seem to know what your talking about....

Heh, thanks...but I am sarcastic a lot. When in doubt, just ask.

 

[redCashion]

I was watching a WCOFF Satellite League the other night, and a guy went C Johnson / Fitzgerald at 1.12/2.1. At first I thought that was odd, but then then I looked at the available RBs, the guys available and next on the ADP list were like:

McGahee

Jamal Lewis

Willie Parker

Westbrook

Reggie Bush

None of these guys inspire enough confidence in me to burn a pick on them, especially in a PPR league (if Westbrook was healthy it would be another story). Reggie is the only exception, I could make a case for him here though it's a bit high.

But you could have your choice of any two of the top WRs and just dominate at that position. Then on the next turn you have your choice of guys like:

Droughns

Dunn

Dillon

Benson

And you can spend the rest of your draft loading up on sleepers.. Dunno, but if I was stuck at 1.12 I would think hard about this strategy, especially in a PPR league.

 

[Pittsburgh United]

I have the dreaded 12-13 pick in my league. I'm going to go with one of the following two options:

2. RB-WR, RB-RB Should get a top 10-12 RB, top 3 WR and a good shot at a decent RB24. RB-WR, RB-WR The most balanced approach, should have four quality starters

I'm just not sure which one yet.....

 

[John Mamula]

I was watching a WCOFF Satellite League the other night, and a guy went C Johnson / Fitzgerald at 1.12/2.1. At first I thought that was odd, but then then I looked at the available RBs, the guys available and next on the ADP list were like:McGaheeJamal LewisWillie ParkerWestbrookReggie BushNone of these guys inspire enough confidence in me to burn a pick on them, especially in a PPR league (if Westbrook was healthy it would be another story). Reggie is the only exception, I could make a case for him here though it's a bit high.But you could have your choice of any two of the top WRs and just dominate at that position. Then on the next turn you have your choice of guys likeroughnsDunnDillonBensonAnd you can spend the rest of your draft loading up on sleepers.. Dunno, but if I was stuck at 1.12 I would think hard about this strategy, especially in a PPR league.

with the PPR, start 3 WR, plus a flex position, that isn't necessarily bad. however there is no way droughns or dunn will be there for you on the next turn. dillon and benson likely, but that isn't who i want as my starting backs.you can do it, but you need to know exactly how to proceed throughout the rest of the draft.

 

[theToes]

I'm not so sure you would be screwed at 12. I have the same pick in a ppr league and expect to be able to pick 2 of the following 4 Rb's as the VBD cuurently stands.

10 Brian Westbrook

11 Rudi Johnson

12 Clinton Portis (just because of the injury)

13 LaMont Jordan

14 Kevin Jones

If you don't want to go RB RB you could take your pick of the top 3 WR with one of the backs above.

At the 3/4 turn here are some of the players that could be there based again upon the current VBD.

35 Chris Chambers Mia/8

36 Jeremy Shockey NYG/4

37 Warrick Dunn Atl/5

38 Matt Hasselbeck Sea/5

39 Donald Driver GB/6

40 Hines Ward Pit/4

41 Roy Williams Det/8

If you go RB RB at the 1/2 turn, take the best 2 WR's on the board

Potential after round 4 is

Westbrook

Rudi

Chambers/Driver

Ward/Williams

that's not a bad start.

 

[massraider]

Steve Smith/ Torry Holt.I think it is the riskiest but the best value.

Holla.You're screwed at 12 if you chase the backs. Take the best value, and use some skill to unearth later gems at back.

 

[Doctor Detroit]

Steve Smith/ Torry Holt.I think it is the riskiest but the best value.

Holla.You're screwed at 12 if you chase the backs. Take the best value, and use some skill to unearth later gems at back.

@ 3.12 and 4.1? I guess you could take one Denver and one Chicago RB and then hope you picked the right ones. Not many "gems" at that point.

 

[chedha]

Steve Smith/ Torry Holt.I think it is the riskiest but the best value.

Holla.You're screwed at 12 if you chase the backs. Take the best value, and use some skill to unearth later gems at back.

I was thinking about doing the same thing at the 1/2 turn. Then, securing the colts, bears, broncos or patriots running game at the 3/4 turn by taking both guys.

 

[redCashion]

Droughns and Dunn were actually both there at the next turn, but the guy went Dillon / Addai. Not where I would have gone, and I think he missed out on Maroney, but I still think the first two bullets he fired were good ones.

I was watching a WCOFF Satellite League the other night, and a guy went C Johnson / Fitzgerald at 1.12/2.1. At first I thought that was odd, but then then I looked at the available RBs, the guys available and next on the ADP list were like:McGaheeJamal LewisWillie ParkerWestbrookReggie BushNone of these guys inspire enough confidence in me to burn a pick on them, especially in a PPR league (if Westbrook was healthy it would be another story). Reggie is the only exception, I could make a case for him here though it's a bit high.But you could have your choice of any two of the top WRs and just dominate at that position. Then on the next turn you have your choice of guys likeroughnsDunnDillonBensonAnd you can spend the rest of your draft loading up on sleepers.. Dunno, but if I was stuck at 1.12 I would think hard about this strategy, especially in a PPR league.

with the PPR, start 3 WR, plus a flex position, that isn't necessarily bad. however there is no way droughns or dunn will be there for you on the next turn. dillon and benson likely, but that isn't who i want as my starting backs.you can do it, but you need to know exactly how to proceed throughout the rest of the draft.

 

[Jeff Pasquino]

There are valuable RBs that get significant touches through Rounds 6 and 7 this year.

Go with best value available, especially in PPR / start 3 WR leagues.

 

[John Mamula]

Droughns and Dunn were actually both there at the next turn, but the guy went Dillon / Addai. Not where I would have gone, and I think he missed out on Maroney, but I still think the first two bullets he fired were good ones.

I was watching a WCOFF Satellite League the other night, and a guy went C Johnson / Fitzgerald at 1.12/2.1. At first I thought that was odd, but then then I looked at the available RBs, the guys available and next on the ADP list were like:McGaheeJamal LewisWillie ParkerWestbrookReggie BushNone of these guys inspire enough confidence in me to burn a pick on them, especially in a PPR league (if Westbrook was healthy it would be another story). Reggie is the only exception, I could make a case for him here though it's a bit high.But you could have your choice of any two of the top WRs and just dominate at that position. Then on the next turn you have your choice of guys likeroughnsDunnDillonBensonAnd you can spend the rest of your draft loading up on sleepers.. Dunno, but if I was stuck at 1.12 I would think hard about this strategy, especially in a PPR league.

with the PPR, start 3 WR, plus a flex position, that isn't necessarily bad. however there is no way droughns or dunn will be there for you on the next turn. dillon and benson likely, but that isn't who i want as my starting backs.you can do it, but you need to know exactly how to proceed throughout the rest of the draft.

their ADP in WCOFF satellites is 3.09 and 3.10.nice value that he passed on. that will bite him.

 

[John Mamula]

There are valuable RBs that get significant touches through Rounds 6 and 7 this year.Go with best value available, especially in PPR / start 3 WR leagues.

are you being purposefully vague?

 

[Doctor Detroit]

There are valuable RBs that get significant touches through Rounds 6 and 7 this year.Go with best value available, especially in PPR / start 3 WR leagues.

are you being purposefully vague?

Translation: Ahman Green and Frank Gore are gonna get nutty.

 

[Keys Myaths]

There are valuable RBs that get significant touches through Rounds 6 and 7 this year.Go with best value available, especially in PPR / start 3 WR leagues.

are you being purposefully vague?

Translation: Ahman Green and Frank Gore are gonna get nutty.

With ADP, the RBs that could gain "significant touches" in rounds 6-7 areomanic RhodesFrank GoreDeAngelo WilliamsChris BrownYum.

 

[massraider]

Steve Smith/ Torry Holt.I think it is the riskiest but the best value.

Holla.You're screwed at 12 if you chase the backs. Take the best value, and use some skill to unearth later gems at back.

@ 3.12 and 4.1? I guess you could take one Denver and one Chicago RB and then hope you picked the right ones. Not many "gems" at that point.

I disagree with that. Now, who they are, that's another question.I'll put it this way: I think you have a better chance of getting a back there that performs better than Lamont or SJax, than you do of getting a WR that performs better than Steve Smith or Chad Johnson.

 

[SSOG]

Ok, Somebody talk me off the ledge.

Sure thing. 50% of all first rounders bust. Even the high ones. If you come out of the 1.12/2.01 picks with two guys that didn't bust, you're way ahead of the game, no matter who they are.Last year, drafting at 1.12 would have cost you a shot at Priest Holmes, Peyton Manning, Willis McGahee, Domanick Davis, Jamal Lewis, and Corey Dillon. Still on the board were Tiki Barber, Rudi Johnson, Brian Westbrook, Thomas Jones, Mike Anderson, Steven Jackson, and LaMont Jordan- although odds are you wouldn't have wound up with any of those guys, either, because 50% of all second rounders bust, too.Futility, thy name is fantasy football.

 

[redCashion]

We haven't released WCOFF ADP, so the ADP you are looking at in a league is for all mocks and survivor leagues, not Satellite Leagues. But I agree both of those players are good value at that position. This discussion got me curious so I compiled the most common picks at 1.12/2.1, and then at 3.12/4.1 in Satellite Leagues. It's over the last two months so some players wouldn't belong here any longer, but here they are:1.12/2.112 Cadillac Williams9 Torry Holt7 Rudi Johnson6 Steve Smith4 Terrell Owens3 Chad Johnson3 Brian Westbrook3 Peyton Manning3 Dominick Davis2 Larry Fitzgerald1 Marvin Harrisson1 Lamont Jordon1 Willis McGahee1 Reggie Wayne1 Ronnie Brown1 Anquan Boldin3.12/4.19 Roy Williams6 Warrick Dunn6 Hines Ward5 Darrell Jackson5 Santana Moss4 DeShaun Foster3 Joseph Addai3 Tatum Bell3 Cedric Benson2 Reggie Bush2 Reuben Droughns2 Julius Jones2 Reggie Wayne1 Plaxico Burress1 Donald Driver1 Antonio Gates1 Jamal Lewis1 Jeremy Shockey1 Javon Walker

Droughns and Dunn were actually both there at the next turn, but the guy went Dillon / Addai. Not where I would have gone, and I think he missed out on Maroney, but I still think the first two bullets he fired were good ones.

I was watching a WCOFF Satellite League the other night, and a guy went C Johnson / Fitzgerald at 1.12/2.1. At first I thought that was odd, but then then I looked at the available RBs, the guys available and next on the ADP list were like:McGaheeJamal LewisWillie ParkerWestbrookReggie BushNone of these guys inspire enough confidence in me to burn a pick on them, especially in a PPR league (if Westbrook was healthy it would be another story). Reggie is the only exception, I could make a case for him here though it's a bit high.But you could have your choice of any two of the top WRs and just dominate at that position. Then on the next turn you have your choice of guys likeroughnsDunnDillonBensonAnd you can spend the rest of your draft loading up on sleepers.. Dunno, but if I was stuck at 1.12 I would think hard about this strategy, especially in a PPR league.

with the PPR, start 3 WR, plus a flex position, that isn't necessarily bad. however there is no way droughns or dunn will be there for you on the next turn. dillon and benson likely, but that isn't who i want as my starting backs.you can do it, but you need to know exactly how to proceed throughout the rest of the draft.

their ADP in WCOFF satellites is 3.09 and 3.10.nice value that he passed on. that will bite him.

 

[Doctor Detroit]

Steve Smith/ Torry Holt.I think it is the riskiest but the best value.

Holla.You're screwed at 12 if you chase the backs. Take the best value, and use some skill to unearth later gems at back.

@ 3.12 and 4.1? I guess you could take one Denver and one Chicago RB and then hope you picked the right ones. Not many "gems" at that point.

I disagree with that. Now, who they are, that's another question.I'll put it this way: I think you have a better chance of getting a back there that performs better than Lamont or SJax, than you do of getting a WR that performs better than Steve Smith or Chad Johnson.

I see your logic but I still wouldn't do that. I tried it once with Harrison and Moss and it didn't work out well.

 

[John Mamula]

We haven't released WCOFF ADP, so the ADP you are looking at in a league is for all mocks and survivor leagues, not Satellite Leagues. But I agree both of those players are good value at that position. This discussion got me curious so I compiled the most common picks at 1.12/2.1, and then at 3.12/4.1 in Satellite Leagues. It's over the last two months so some players wouldn't belong here any longer, but here they are:1.12/2.112 Cadillac Williams9 Torry Holt6 Steve Smith7 Rudi Johnson4 Terrell Owens3 Chad Johnson3 Brian Westbrook3 Peyton Manning3 Dominick Davis2 Larry Fitzgerald1 Marvin Harrisson1 Lamont Jordon1 Willis McGahee1 Reggie Wayne1 Ronnie Brown1 Anquan Boldin3.12/4.19 Roy Williams6 Warrick Dunn6 Hines Ward5 Darrell Jackson5 Santana Moss4 DeShaun Foster3 Joseph Addai3 Tatum Bell3 Cedric Benson2 Reggie Bush2 Reuben Droughns2 Julius Jones2 Reggie Wayne1 Plaxico Burress1 Donald Driver1 Antonio Gates1 Jamal Lewis1 Jeremy Shockey1 Javon Walker

ok let me put it this way...i have seen a fair amount of satellite results that gave me an ADP with those #s.so no those aren't mocks or survivor leagues. those are actual satellites.

 

[redCashion]

Gotcha bagger, I just thought you were pulling the ADP is a source for Satellites.I also noticed that Dillon wasn't in this second group, so maybe I misremembered who he took.

We haven't released WCOFF ADP, so the ADP you are looking at in a league is for all mocks and survivor leagues, not Satellite Leagues. But I agree both of those players are good value at that position. This discussion got me curious so I compiled the most common picks at 1.12/2.1, and then at 3.12/4.1 in Satellite Leagues. It's over the last two months so some players wouldn't belong here any longer, but here they are:1.12/2.112 Cadillac Williams9 Torry Holt6 Steve Smith7 Rudi Johnson4 Terrell Owens3 Chad Johnson3 Brian Westbrook3 Peyton Manning3 Dominick Davis2 Larry Fitzgerald1 Marvin Harrisson1 Lamont Jordon1 Willis McGahee1 Reggie Wayne1 Ronnie Brown1 Anquan Boldin3.12/4.19 Roy Williams6 Warrick Dunn6 Hines Ward5 Darrell Jackson5 Santana Moss4 DeShaun Foster3 Joseph Addai3 Tatum Bell3 Cedric Benson2 Reggie Bush2 Reuben Droughns2 Julius Jones2 Reggie Wayne1 Plaxico Burress1 Donald Driver1 Antonio Gates1 Jamal Lewis1 Jeremy Shockey1 Javon Walker

ok let me put it this way...i have seen a fair amount of satellite results that gave me an ADP with those #s.so no those aren't mocks or survivor leagues. those are actual satellites.

 

[massraider]

Steve Smith/ Torry Holt.

I think it is the riskiest but the best value.

Holla.You're screwed at 12 if you chase the backs. Take the best value, and use some skill to unearth later gems at back.

@ 3.12 and 4.1? I guess you could take one Denver and one Chicago RB and then hope you picked the right ones. Not many "gems" at that point.

I disagree with that. Now, who they are, that's another question.I'll put it this way: I think you have a better chance of getting a back there that performs better than Lamont or SJax, than you do of getting a WR that performs better than Steve Smith or Chad Johnson.

I see your logic but I still wouldn't do that. I tried it once with Harrison and Moss and it didn't work out well.

Yeah, previous experience always tends to weigh heavily. One league I was in, a guy didn't take a RB till the fourth round, he went WR-WR-QB, then took like 4 straight backs. Two years in a row! He was in the title game both years. Because while everyone was getting second-tier WR's, he was building depth at RB. I've done it before, where I was the last guy to take a RB, but the first one to take my 4th RB. With four lesser backs, I was always able to cobble together a decent backfield, and the top level stats from my QB and WR's kept me in games. Going WR-WR-RB-RB-QB-RB-RB. Or some variation, depending on if there's QB value there.Personally, I think this is a great year to give a strategy like that a shot. I think there's a ton of unsettled RB situations, and at the end of the year, I expect several of the top FF producers at RB to come from the middle rounds.

 

[Doctor Detroit]

Steve Smith/ Torry Holt.

I think it is the riskiest but the best value.

Holla.You're screwed at 12 if you chase the backs. Take the best value, and use some skill to unearth later gems at back.

@ 3.12 and 4.1? I guess you could take one Denver and one Chicago RB and then hope you picked the right ones. Not many "gems" at that point.

I disagree with that. Now, who they are, that's another question.I'll put it this way: I think you have a better chance of getting a back there that performs better than Lamont or SJax, than you do of getting a WR that performs better than Steve Smith or Chad Johnson.

I see your logic but I still wouldn't do that. I tried it once with Harrison and Moss and it didn't work out well.

Yeah, previous experience always tends to weigh heavily. One league I was in, a guy didn't take a RB till the fourth round, he went WR-WR-QB, then took like 4 straight backs. Two years in a row! He was in the title game both years. Because while everyone was getting second-tier WR's, he was building depth at RB. I've done it before, where I was the last guy to take a RB, but the first one to take my 4th RB. With four lesser backs, I was always able to cobble together a decent backfield, and the top level stats from my QB and WR's kept me in games. Going WR-WR-RB-RB-QB-RB-RB. Or some variation, depending on if there's QB value there.Personally, I think this is a great year to give a strategy like that a shot. I think there's a ton of unsettled RB situations, and at the end of the year, I expect several of the top FF producers at RB to come from the middle rounds.

Honestly that is strategy and something called game theory. If you can approach it from a research prospective and feel comfortable with it, I say go for it. I've seen a derivative of this strategy win before but you really have to be precise in your picking and just like in any fantasy league, get a few good bounces.

 

[Darcimer]

You guys rock!

That was some discussion.. The mocks still favor the early picks, but the intangibles are much more powerful than they appear. Mistakes, filling out positions, handcuffing are all things that will play into a huge advantage for the 12 slot..

I won't be going WR/WR, just so I can stay flexible, but I see it as irresponsible to not grab at least one, esp. if it's one of the big three WR's.. I am snakebitten though, having drafted R Moss early the last 2 years. I am NOT liking TO here, and I think it's too early to grab an ARZ WR here..But that's just my opinion.

 

[Capt Hook]

I don't mind the 1-12/2-1 choices at all - HOWEVER you should look at what the likely ADPs are for your choices at 3-12 and 4-1. If you blindly go WR-WR you WILL get two great receivers, however you will be very badly placed to take advantage of the greatest value at the second turn - WR

You should look hard at getting the best RB and best WR available with the first two picks in case this holds (look at the actual players available in Red's post, I am not recopying the whole thing, but look at the WR talent available there).

In a 12 teamer with PPR and starting 2RB and 3WR, with or without a flex, you could do very well this year starting with WR-RB-WR-WR

As also noted above there will be some very nice secondary running backs available to you with your third pair of picks.

 

[⚡DEADHEAD⚡]

With the 11 pick, which is not too far off from 12 as long as somebody reaches for Manning or a WR early, I wound up with this team in order drafted:

C. Williams

S. Smith

D. Jackson

H. Ward

T. Jones

A. Crumpler

D. Rhodes

D. Bennett

I am pretty happy with this team for picking in the 11 hole. PPR and flex (min. 1 RB/4 WR or max 3 RB/2 WR).

Good luck man.

 

[Keg]

Steve Smith/ Torry Holt.

I think it is the riskiest but the best value.

I pulled the 12 slot and went Smith/Holthere is the team I ended up with:(please note there are no ppr)

also i did use a few trades to shape my team

1.12B Steve Smith 9

2.1B Torry Holt 7

3.10C Chester Taylor 6 via Trade/Clash

3.12B Tatum Bell 4

4.1B Donald Driver 6 Traded to Clash

5.7B Todd Heap 7

6.6B Michael Clayton 4

6.7C Matt Hasslebeck 5 via Trade/REZ

7.4A Lendale White 7 Traded to REZ

8.1B Laurence Maroney 6

9.12B Carolina Panthers 9

11.01B Mike Bell 4

12.1B Joe Jurevicious 6

14.5A Jason Elam 4

14.6B Brad Johnson 6

14.9B Alex Smith TB 4

17.4A Verron Haynes 4

17.12B Jerious Norwood 5

18.1B Najeh Davenport 6

18.9B Derek Hagan 8



QB- MHasslebeck, BJohnson

RB- CTaylor, TBell, Maroney, MBell, VHaynes, JNorwood, Davenport

WR- SSmith, THolt, Michael Clayton, JJurevicious, DHagan

TE- Heap, ASmith

K- JElam

DEF- Carolina

TRADES

Screech sends:

7.4A(LenDale White) and 14.5A

I Send:

7.12B(Ahman Green)and 12.1B

theeohiostate sends:

5.7B(HEAP), 6.6B, 14.6B

I Send:

5.12B, 6.1B, 14.1B

Clash(FFT) sends:

Chester Taylor(3.10C), 11.01B & 12.12B

I Send:

Donald Driver(4.1B), 10.01B & 11.12B

Rez sends:

6.7C(MHasslebeck)

I send:

LenDale White(7.1A)

Screech Sends:

12.1B(JoeJ) & 17.4A

I Send:

12.12B & 13.12B

Cracker Sends:

14.9B(Alex Smith TB) & 18.9B

I Send:

15.12B & 16.1B

grabbing a RB to grab one is the fast way to doom the #12 slot

 

[Chickenwang]

With the 11 pick, which is not too far off from 12 as long as somebody reaches for Manning or a WR early, I wound up with this team in order drafted:C. WilliamsS. SmithD. JacksonH. WardT. JonesA. CrumplerD. RhodesD. Bennett

That team is down right awful if you ask me....

 

[lions327]

There are valuable RBs that get significant touches through Rounds 6 and 7 this year.Go with best value available, especially in PPR / start 3 WR leagues.

 

[⚡DEADHEAD⚡]

With the 11 pick, which is not too far off from 12 as long as somebody reaches for Manning or a WR early, I wound up with this team in order drafted:C. WilliamsS. SmithD. JacksonH. WardT. JonesA. CrumplerD. RhodesD. Bennett

That team is down right awful if you ask me....

Interesting. I can be pretty objective and I don't think it's that bad at all...I'll need one or two breaks to compete for the top spot though. Bu everybody drafting from the 10, 11 and 12 spot will need a break or two to go deep in the playoffs.

 

[fatness]

I think you're screwed at 12

That's an hour and 18 minutes from now. I can't wait.

 

[massraider]

I think you're screwed at 12

That's an hour and 18 minutes from now. I can't wait.

I wish I'd thought of that one.

 

[SSOG]

You guys rock! That was some discussion.. The mocks still favor the early picks, but the intangibles are much more powerful than they appear. Mistakes, filling out positions, handcuffing are all things that will play into a huge advantage for the 12 slot.. I won't be going WR/WR, just so I can stay flexible, but I see it as irresponsible to not grab at least one, esp. if it's one of the big three WR's.. I am snakebitten though, having drafted R Moss early the last 2 years. I am NOT liking TO here, and I think it's too early to grab an ARZ WR here..But that's just my opinion.

The reason why the mocks favor the early picks is because the mocks are operating under the assumption that their projections are correct.Their projections are not correct. Their projections are not even CLOSE to correct.Also, you say that you're snakebitten because you took Moss early the last two seasons. I would bet that, even with the drop in production, Randy Moss outperformed about half of the players taken before him in the draft. He really wasn't as big of a bust as you might think.

 

[Darcimer]

Their projections are not correct. Their projections are not even CLOSE to correct.

I was hoping somebody would say this. This is not a knock on FFG or anyone else, but this is the crux of the issue. If you "knew" Holt was going to score 300 points this year, I think it's a no-brainer at 1.12/2.01. Just like I thought Moss was a no-brainer last year. I concede the point that Moss wasn't a bust, he came out of the gate hot, but after the bye, his second half, flat out, was poor even considering a 2 TD 100+ yd game in wk 17, when it didn't matter, at least to me. (And I suspect that this is more pronounced at WR. Barring injuries, I think the RB crowd, at least up front, is much more stable.) So back to your point, the projections were wrong. I always win my draft based on team totals and using "my" projections. But I can't land the big fish because I can't see past the projections. And in the case of Moss last season, I don't think that you can afford to have your stud REC #1 pick fall out of the top 20 of REC.So, any tips on reading between the projections? Player by player basis? How do you get a projection for a RBBC or handcuff situation? You can't just add up Dillon and Maroney's totals, but if you had the two of them together, they are certainly worth more than they are alone. Maybe RB8 or B9? I am kinda pissed that Bush is now overvalued. Or is he not? I don't know. I haven't even seen him on the field yet. I just hear people going Oohhh, ahhh.. And alot of people are leaving Deuce off their whole draft list. I think this is part of my draft that I completely trust to the projections.Does anyone remember where Barlow was projected last year or 2? I have had that sack of chips 3 years in a row because he was supposed to be in a great situation, and was projected way up there. There another guy I won't ever draft again.My best picks were always newcomers to the top who slipped because their names weren't Moss or Manning. CJ 3 years ago, Westbrook the last 2 years, Tiki who is finally getting respect, except now it's probably too late. But you would have had to be a serious homer if you were to bump those projections up at the time, even though you would have been right.Look at LJ tonight. Based on what I saw, this guy isn't worthy of a #1 pick. Maybe the Giants were just playing well, but there are some fundamental changes to the OL in KC that can't be ignored. Alot of people are watching to see if the holes are going to be there for LJ, and also to see if Gonzo is going to have to stay home and block. Do you move Shaun and LT up? I think I am going to, but it doesn't matter, I'm 12..LOL..I got way more philosophical than I meant to, but this is important stuff...

 

[SSOG]

Their projections are not correct. Their projections are not even CLOSE to correct.

I was hoping somebody would say this. This is not a knock on FFG or anyone else, but this is the crux of the issue. If you "knew" Holt was going to score 300 points this year, I think it's a no-brainer at 1.12/2.01. Just like I thought Moss was a no-brainer last year. I concede the point that Moss wasn't a bust, he came out of the gate hot, but after the bye, his second half, flat out, was poor even considering a 2 TD 100+ yd game in wk 17, when it didn't matter, at least to me. (And I suspect that this is more pronounced at WR. Barring injuries, I think the RB crowd, at least up front, is much more stable.) So back to your point, the projections were wrong. I always win my draft based on team totals and using "my" projections. But I can't land the big fish because I can't see past the projections. And in the case of Moss last season, I don't think that you can afford to have your stud REC #1 pick fall out of the top 20 of REC.So, any tips on reading between the projections? Player by player basis? How do you get a projection for a RBBC or handcuff situation? You can't just add up Dillon and Maroney's totals, but if you had the two of them together, they are certainly worth more than they are alone. Maybe RB8 or B9? I am kinda pissed that Bush is now overvalued. Or is he not? I don't know. I haven't even seen him on the field yet. I just hear people going Oohhh, ahhh.. And alot of people are leaving Deuce off their whole draft list. I think this is part of my draft that I completely trust to the projections.Does anyone remember where Barlow was projected last year or 2? I have had that sack of chips 3 years in a row because he was supposed to be in a great situation, and was projected way up there. There another guy I won't ever draft again.My best picks were always newcomers to the top who slipped because their names weren't Moss or Manning. CJ 3 years ago, Westbrook the last 2 years, Tiki who is finally getting respect, except now it's probably too late. But you would have had to be a serious homer if you were to bump those projections up at the time, even though you would have been right.Look at LJ tonight. Based on what I saw, this guy isn't worthy of a #1 pick. Maybe the Giants were just playing well, but there are some fundamental changes to the OL in KC that can't be ignored. Alot of people are watching to see if the holes are going to be there for LJ, and also to see if Gonzo is going to have to stay home and block. Do you move Shaun and LT up? I think I am going to, but it doesn't matter, I'm 12..LOL..I got way more philosophical than I meant to, but this is important stuff...

My big project this offseason has been working on an article about Hubris in fantasy football- everyone thinks they're right, but nobody ever really is. No matter what you do to project, no matter whose numbers you read, no matter what you believe, you're going to be wrong 50% of the time or more- and this is with high draft picks! I'm almost halfway tempted to say that the real value is in trading out of the first round entirely and stockpiling later draft picks, because at least then you have a few more darts to throw at the board and hope for a bullseye.

 

[Captain Quinoa]

Drafting 12th myself, I really want to go best RB available and #1 WR. Problem is, I see a lot more desirable WR's in the 35-40 range (Ward/S.Moss/R.Williams/DJax/etc) than I do RB's (Dunn/Dillon/Foster/T.Bell/etc) and there's no way I'm going RB-WR-WR-WR. Gonna depend on what RB's fall through the first round. I'm not going to reach for a Bush/McGahee/K.Jones/Parker at 2.1 just because I'm afraid of what might be left in the 3rd. If that's what is left then I go with a WR or try to trade down to the middle of the 2nd and pick up an extra 3rd or 4th round pick.

 

[Da Beers]

My big project this offseason has been working on an article about Hubris in fantasy football- everyone thinks they're right, but nobody ever really is. No matter what you do to project, no matter whose numbers you read, no matter what you believe, you're going to be wrong 50% of the time or more- and this is with high draft picks! I'm almost halfway tempted to say that the real value is in trading out of the first round entirely and stockpiling later draft picks, because at least then you have a few more darts to throw at the board and hope for a bullseye.

very

 

[el-gato-grande]

Their projections are not correct. Their projections are not even CLOSE to correct.

I was hoping somebody would say this. This is not a knock on FFG or anyone else, but this is the crux of the issue. If you "knew" Holt was going to score 300 points this year, I think it's a no-brainer at 1.12/2.01. Just like I thought Moss was a no-brainer last year. I concede the point that Moss wasn't a bust, he came out of the gate hot, but after the bye, his second half, flat out, was poor even considering a 2 TD 100+ yd game in wk 17, when it didn't matter, at least to me. (And I suspect that this is more pronounced at WR. Barring injuries, I think the RB crowd, at least up front, is much more stable.) So back to your point, the projections were wrong. I always win my draft based on team totals and using "my" projections. But I can't land the big fish because I can't see past the projections. And in the case of Moss last season, I don't think that you can afford to have your stud REC #1 pick fall out of the top 20 of REC.So, any tips on reading between the projections? Player by player basis? How do you get a projection for a RBBC or handcuff situation? You can't just add up Dillon and Maroney's totals, but if you had the two of them together, they are certainly worth more than they are alone. Maybe RB8 or B9? I am kinda pissed that Bush is now overvalued. Or is he not? I don't know. I haven't even seen him on the field yet. I just hear people going Oohhh, ahhh.. And alot of people are leaving Deuce off their whole draft list. I think this is part of my draft that I completely trust to the projections.Does anyone remember where Barlow was projected last year or 2? I have had that sack of chips 3 years in a row because he was supposed to be in a great situation, and was projected way up there. There another guy I won't ever draft again.My best picks were always newcomers to the top who slipped because their names weren't Moss or Manning. CJ 3 years ago, Westbrook the last 2 years, Tiki who is finally getting respect, except now it's probably too late. But you would have had to be a serious homer if you were to bump those projections up at the time, even though you would have been right.Look at LJ tonight. Based on what I saw, this guy isn't worthy of a #1 pick. Maybe the Giants were just playing well, but there are some fundamental changes to the OL in KC that can't be ignored. Alot of people are watching to see if the holes are going to be there for LJ, and also to see if Gonzo is going to have to stay home and block. Do you move Shaun and LT up? I think I am going to, but it doesn't matter, I'm 12..LOL..I got way more philosophical than I meant to, but this is important stuff...

My big project this offseason has been working on an article about Hubris in fantasy football- everyone thinks they're right, but nobody ever really is. No matter what you do to project, no matter whose numbers you read, no matter what you believe, you're going to be wrong 50% of the time or more- and this is with high draft picks! I'm almost halfway tempted to say that the real value is in trading out of the first round entirely and stockpiling later draft picks, because at least then you have a few more darts to throw at the board and hope for a bullseye.

I have won two championships in four years in my keeper league, which is chock full of very experienced fantasy owners. Each time I won it was based on waiver pickups and trades and NOT drafts. Mainly because as the season unfolds it becomes obvious that most projections were wrong and you have to proactively adjust your roster coming out of the draft based on that. I rarely finish with more than a handful of players I actually drafted and its usually a couple of key picks that make the difference. Last year it was a second round pick of LJ to hand cuff Priest ahead of another owner who I knew liked LJ. People thought I reached. I am wearing the ring.

 

[SSOG]

I have won two championships in four years in my keeper league, which is chock full of very experienced fantasy owners. Each time I won it was based on waiver pickups and trades and NOT drafts. Mainly because as the season unfolds it becomes obvious that most projections were wrong and you have to proactively adjust your roster coming out of the draft based on that. I rarely finish with more than a handful of players I actually drafted and its usually a couple of key picks that make the difference. Last year it was a second round pick of LJ to hand cuff Priest ahead of another owner who I knew liked LJ. People thought I reached. I am wearing the ring.

I think that's it exactly. Historically speaking, if you don't have one of the top 3-5 players in the game, in terms of VBD, then you're drastically behind the 8-ball in the league. As a result, everyone values the top 3-5 picks EXTREMELY highly, because those are the guys projected to be the REAL difference-makers. The problem is that, historically, the real difference makers don't often come from the top 3-5 picks. Tiki Barber has finished 4th in season-ending VBD for two straight years now. He was a 3rd rounder in 2004, and a 2nd rounder in 2005. Peyton and Culpep were #1 and #2 in season-ending VBD in 2004. They were both late-1st, early-2nd draft picks. Larry Johnson was #2 in VBD last year, and he was a 5th rounder. Ahman Green was 2nd in VBD in 2003, and was a late 1st/early 2nd. JamLew was 4th in VBD, and he was a solid 2nd-rounder. Meanwhile, for every Tomlinson or Alexander, who consistantly are drafted high and live up to their billing, there are guys like Ricky Williams, Priest Holmes, etc. I think that, unless I had a top-3 draft pick, I'd much rather trade my first and a fifth or sixth for a pair of second rounders, just to stock up on darts.

 

[joey]

I have won two championships in four years in my keeper league, which is chock full of very experienced fantasy owners. Each time I won it was based on waiver pickups and trades and NOT drafts. Mainly because as the season unfolds it becomes obvious that most projections were wrong and you have to proactively adjust your roster coming out of the draft based on that. I rarely finish with more than a handful of players I actually drafted and its usually a couple of key picks that make the difference. Last year it was a second round pick of LJ to hand cuff Priest ahead of another owner who I knew liked LJ. People thought I reached. I am wearing the ring.

I think that's it exactly. Historically speaking, if you don't have one of the top 3-5 players in the game, in terms of VBD, then you're drastically behind the 8-ball in the league. As a result, everyone values the top 3-5 picks EXTREMELY highly, because those are the guys projected to be the REAL difference-makers. The problem is that, historically, the real difference makers don't often come from the top 3-5 picks. Tiki Barber has finished 4th in season-ending VBD for two straight years now. He was a 3rd rounder in 2004, and a 2nd rounder in 2005. Peyton and Culpep were #1 and #2 in season-ending VBD in 2004. They were both late-1st, early-2nd draft picks. Larry Johnson was #2 in VBD last year, and he was a 5th rounder. Ahman Green was 2nd in VBD in 2003, and was a late 1st/early 2nd. JamLew was 4th in VBD, and he was a solid 2nd-rounder. Meanwhile, for every Tomlinson or Alexander, who consistantly are drafted high and live up to their billing, there are guys like Ricky Williams, Priest Holmes, etc. I think that, unless I had a top-3 draft pick, I'd much rather trade my first and a fifth or sixth for a pair of second rounders, just to stock up on darts.

I agree 100% too.When I review previous years' drafts from my 2 main ff leagues, it alwaysseems that my season-ending roster has FIVE or less players that I originallydrafted (out of a 14 player draft). That's only 1/3rd! I'm all about the freeagent moves during the season and am always among the league leadersin free agent/waiver moves. I'm also almost always in the playoffs or just outsideof it year in and year out.

 

[Dolfan]

I don't think so buddy... I'll still be at work at 12 today and I just don't see it happening...

Strange prediction though

 

[Sabertooth]

I have won two championships in four years in my keeper league, which is chock full of very experienced fantasy owners. Each time I won it was based on waiver pickups and trades and NOT drafts. Mainly because as the season unfolds it becomes obvious that most projections were wrong and you have to proactively adjust your roster coming out of the draft based on that. I rarely finish with more than a handful of players I actually drafted and its usually a couple of key picks that make the difference. Last year it was a second round pick of LJ to hand cuff Priest ahead of another owner who I knew liked LJ. People thought I reached. I am wearing the ring.

I think that's it exactly. Historically speaking, if you don't have one of the top 3-5 players in the game, in terms of VBD, then you're drastically behind the 8-ball in the league. As a result, everyone values the top 3-5 picks EXTREMELY highly, because those are the guys projected to be the REAL difference-makers. The problem is that, historically, the real difference makers don't often come from the top 3-5 picks. Tiki Barber has finished 4th in season-ending VBD for two straight years now. He was a 3rd rounder in 2004, and a 2nd rounder in 2005. Peyton and Culpep were #1 and #2 in season-ending VBD in 2004. They were both late-1st, early-2nd draft picks. Larry Johnson was #2 in VBD last year, and he was a 5th rounder. Ahman Green was 2nd in VBD in 2003, and was a late 1st/early 2nd. JamLew was 4th in VBD, and he was a solid 2nd-rounder. Meanwhile, for every Tomlinson or Alexander, who consistantly are drafted high and live up to their billing, there are guys like Ricky Williams, Priest Holmes, etc. I think that, unless I had a top-3 draft pick, I'd much rather trade my first and a fifth or sixth for a pair of second rounders, just to stock up on darts.

I agree 100% too.When I review previous years' drafts from my 2 main ff leagues, it always

seems that my season-ending roster has FIVE or less players that I originally

drafted (out of a 14 player draft). That's only 1/3rd! I'm all about the free

agent moves during the season and am always among the league leaders

in free agent/waiver moves. I'm also almost always in the playoffs or just outside

of it year in and year out.

It's my opinion that if you told an owner he couldn't draft any players. But he had first crack at all free agents all year long. He'd be able to field a pretty competitive team. Guys always slip through the cracks.

 

[capmeo]

I would go S.Smith/T.Holt. Then I would I would go with a C.Taylor type option in the 3rd if he is available or D. Foster and handcuff him with D.Williams. Also, I have seen Portis drop to the 3rd round in some drafts. I think he is good value in the third.

The other option is a S.Smith or T.Holt with Reggie Bush option.