I wouldn't draft Larry Fitzgerald in the 1st...2nd...3rd...4th (2 Viewers)

[Ministry of Pain]

Drafted last night, 14 teams, QB happy scoring, 0.5 ppr

I had 3 shots at Fitz and passed on all 3. I took the first two wideouts in Andre and Moss, then Roddy in the 3rd round. The next guy took good ol Fitz.

So, I passed on him even as my WR3. I think he's about 8th or 9th for me this season, though dynasty he's still my #3 behind Andre and Roddy.

Can I get an Amen!

 

[Shutout]

Sorry, but when a guy is going in the top 3 rounds and he's entering the season with a knee sprain, I'm avoiding him at all costs.

So, he's going to be probable or Questionable for one week and that makes you pass on drafting him altogether? Does that mean you dont draft SJAX or DWILL or Brady...cause those guys are Questionable every week of the year. I don't get that logic. He's hands down one of the top talents in the league that has proven he can finish top of the league...repeatedly. I just don't think you let one snapshot in time toss the bath water out in football because, well, its football. ANY player on any team could go through parts of the season with bad ankles or sprained knees or hurt ribs, etc.

 

[Ministry of Pain]

We are baptizing people today in the SP river, freeing them of their Cardinal sins

I am Sean the Baptist and I'm here all week.

 

[Shutout]

We are baptizing people today in the SP river, freeing them of their Cardinal sins I am Sean the Baptist and I'm here all week.

LOL. Well, you know what the good book says about FALSE PROPHETS!! Be Leery followers.

 

[Concept Coop]

Drafted last night, 14 teams, QB happy scoring, 0.5 pprI had 3 shots at Fitz and passed on all 3. I took the first two wideouts in Andre and Moss, then Roddy in the 3rd round. The next guy took good ol Fitz. So, I passed on him even as my WR3. I think he's about 8th or 9th for me this season, though dynasty he's still my #3 behind Andre and Roddy.

Roddy in Dynasty? That is surprising to me. It is a much older Sidney Rice, might as well take him.

 

[Resident A]

One thing to note about an MCL sprain, is that it's actually a ligament tear, just not a complete rupture.

I had a grade 2 MCL sprain earlier this year. It was 2 weeks before I could walk w/o pain, probably 4 weeks before I could've run, at least 8 weeks before I would've been able to run & cut like you do in football. I am an athlete & did all the proper rehab.

My fear is that Fitz comes back in Week 1 (prematurely) and re-injures it, then has nagging knee issues all year. Think Felix Jones last year, he had the same thing. Felix was basically useless for most of the NFL regular season (FF-wise). I'm not touching Fitz anywhere near his ADP either.

 

[Frenchy Fuqua]

One thing to note about an MCL sprain, is that it's actually a ligament tear, just not a complete rupture.

I had a grade 2 MCL sprain earlier this year. It was 2 weeks before I could walk w/o pain, probably 4 weeks before I could've run, at least 8 weeks before I would've been able to run & cut like you do in football. I am an athlete & did all the proper rehab.

My fear is that Fitz comes back in Week 1 (prematurely) and re-injures it, then has nagging knee issues all year. Think Felix Jones last year, he had the same thing. Felix was basically useless for most of the NFL regular season (FF-wise). I'm not touching Fitz anywhere near his ADP either.

FWIW, Fitzgerald actually finished the series after injuring his knee. He was running routes and blocking.

 

[Exit 1]

Sorry, but when a guy is going in the top 3 rounds and he's entering the season with a knee sprain, I'm avoiding him at all costs.

So, he's going to be probable or Questionable for one week and that makes you pass on drafting him altogether? Does that mean you dont draft SJAX or DWILL or Brady...cause those guys are Questionable every week of the year. I don't get that logic. He's hands down one of the top talents in the league that has proven he can finish top of the league...repeatedly. I just don't think you let one snapshot in time toss the bath water out in football because, well, its football. ANY player on any team could go through parts of the season with bad ankles or sprained knees or hurt ribs, etc.

You don't know for sure how long this injury will linger. Knee injuries aren't something you want to mess around with. He's not worth the risk in the top 3 rounds, imo.

 

[Frenchy Fuqua]

I don't get the Fitz panic. Losing Warner hurts, sure the Cards are more likely to pound the ball. But Boldin is gone. Fitz becomes the clear #1 guy every week. If Leinart can't get him the ball, Derek Anderson will. See Braylon Edwards 2007. Between his talent and the Cards schedule & division (easy) it's difficult to let him fall too far in drafts.

 

[FreeBaGeL]

You don't think Matt Leinart will be any good and think that will greatly impact Fitzgerald. Somehow you managed to stretch that out into 800 words, so kudos on that

I'd be curious as to your projections for the Arizona passing game this year.

 

[Billy Ball Thorton]

I'd love to see you pass on Larry Fitzgerald in the fourth round of a redraft league. It's easy to come out and say you would, because you'd never be faced with that decision.Go take a look at his schedule. There might be 3 good corners in the lot. Not that it matters. Larry will get his. He's too good not to.

 

[Bears_Man2]

Leinart doesn't get the ball there fast enough for him and leaves him hanging out to dry. Folks, there is a major dropoff from a HoF QB like Kurt Warner to Matt Leinart. I'm not talking about FF here but more in NFL terms, it simply is not going to be the same. Fitzgerald IMO is going to fall off the map.

I was avoiding Fitz because of Leinart (hanging WR's out to dry with his floaters has been 1 Matt's worst qualities -- along with unnecessarily rolling out of the pocket & slow reads).Had Fitz outside my top 20 overall pre-injury. Maybe it knocks him out of top 25 with the injury (will follow up on news leading up to the season with Labor Day wkend drafts). My real concern is with Leinart right now.I don't see him completely falling off the map (that'd to me means you can't start him -- which I can't see happening if he's healthy). However unlikely, I can see him finishing out of the top 15 WR's.I don't think it's insane to pass on Fitz in the first 3 rounds (for reasons you may have). I know right now, I'd have a hard time passing with a Round 3 pick

 

[pantherclub]

I hear you. I love Fitz as an elite talent but I think his bustability factor is just too high this year. In my keep 2 PPR league, I just traded Fitz for a first round pick. I should be able to land one of Greg Jennings, Roddy White, or Calvin Johnson with that pick, and I feel much better with any of those guys over Fitz. Leinart always scared me but the knee injury pushed me over. I'm concerned he'll start off slowly.

The knee injury was icing on the cake.

Even in the 3rd round I would lay off him. Will be interesting to see how far he is going to fall in redrafts now.

Come on now dude thats crazy. I totally agree that I wouldnt draft him in the first and probably not until the last half of the 2nd but you are making him out ot be a complete and utter bust. I predict he still catches 70-80 balls easily.

 

[bostonfred]

The conventional wisdom is so far off on Matt Leinart it's not funny. This past week, he was 6 of 7 for 49 yards and the FBG newsletter said he has to be worried about the guy who couldn't outplay the guy who got thrown to the curb for Jake Delhomme. The people who are so worked up about the dropoff from Kurt Warner to Leinart fail to mention that there already was a dropoff, from Warner '08 to Warner '09. Leinart should be able to put up a reasonable approximation of Warner '09.

 

[Power Monster]

I am in the stay away from Card receiver camp.

 

[billyjohnson]

Ahead of you on this one.....said the exact same thing in the pick 8 thread the other day. Well, at least said I would pass during first two rounds.

Anyway, I just don't see fitz staying healthy going after those leinart floaters across the middle. Much less putting up a big time season.

 

[Faust]

Postcard from camp: Cardinals

Key Excerpts:

Leinart is even showing some of his Heisman-like swagger. During practice Monday he threw a skinny post to Larry Fitzgerald that left the receiver exposed to a potentially devastating hit from Wilson, who was the deep safety. Wilson pulled off and allowed Fitzgerald to make the catch and proceed downfield. When the offense and defense changed sides of the field after the drill was over, Leinart stopped Wilson and said: "I know you could have killed him. But I've been dropping bombs on y'alls ### all day."

"To me that says that he's competing and wants to get better and he wants to win," said Wilson, chuckling. "He's definitely confident in his ability, and we're behind him. That's one thing he really needs to understand. We're behind him 100 percent."

There will be greater balance to the offense. Warner was most comfortable in spread formations and empty backfields, but Whisenhunt is expected to be more traditional early in the season until Leinart shows he can handle having games in his hands. Look for the running game to excel behind a reconfigured line. Second-year pro Beanie Wells says he expects to at least double his rookie stats of 793 yards and seven touchdowns, and third-year back Tim Hightower is determined not to give up his job after starting 23 of 32 games in his career.

My takeaways: Leinart throws passes that leave Fitz exposed to monster hits from the defense, and while Wilson eased off his own teammate, the opposing team isn't going to do that when they face the Cardinals. Also with Leinart at QB and Boldin gone, they will be focused on more of a balanced offense then when Warner was there.

 

[BRONG]

I want to thank a good friend who was sitting with me at the bar last night while watching the game and said "MOP(I make my friends call me that ) I have something I have been wanting to say about Fitzgerald." And he went on to say how uncomfortable he was with Fitz even in the 2nd...and it was like opening the flood gates for me because I also have been thinking this for awhile but never verbalized it and I just wanted to thank him.

The bolded is classic...and the ensuing conversation I can only imagine (if this actually happened).

 

[BradtheAg]

if fitz is there in the second i won't even think twice about pulling the trigger

 

[Tau837]

Fitz's productivity lessened with Leinart by about .6 catches a game/1 TD per year...nothing.

This is false. This has been discussed in numerous threads throughout the offseason, and I actually broke down Fitz's splits with Leinart in detail:

OK, because of the fact that Leinart split time in multiple games, I actually went through the game logs and determined what Fitz's performance has been while playing with Leinart. Here is the data.

Fitz playing with Leinart from 2006-2009:

- Approximately 59.5 quarters of play

- 119 targets, 70 receptions, 982 receiving yards (14.0 ypr), 5 TDs

- Scaling up to 16 games (64 quarters) yields: 128 targets, 75 receptions, 1056 receiving yards, 5.4 TDs

SSOG has suggested that we shouldn't count Leinart's rookie season, so here are the numbers for Fitz playing with Leinart from 2007-2009:

- Approximately 26.5 quarters of play

- 59 targets, 29 receptions, 409 receiving yards (14.1 ypr), 1 TD

- Scaling up to 16 games (64 quarters) yields: 142 targets, 70 receptions, 988 receiving yards, 2.4 TDs

So it turns out that it doesn't help Fitz's numbers to eliminate Leinart's rookie season. I suspect that the 5 game stretch SSOG earlier referred to as 2005 was really the first 5 games of 2007, during which Fitz had 34/448/1... but only 15/212/0 of that was from Leinart, so counting his full production for those games skewed the numbers so they looked better after Leinart's rookie season.

However, to be fair, Fitz's playing time with Leinart after Leinart's rookie year was sporadic, with plenty of mopup time and other short stints, which might distort the numbers. They played 3 full games together since Leinart's rookie year in which Leinart played the entire game at QB. Here are Fitz's numbers in those games:

- 3 games

- 27 targets, 14 receptions, 141 receiving yards (10.1 ypr), 0 TDs

- Scaling up to 16 games yields: 144 targets, 75 receptions, 752 receiving yards, 0 TDs

It just keeps getting worse...

Now, Leinart could be better with more experience and an entire offseason, training camp, and preseason working as the #1 QB. (If that holds true.) But those numbers sure are unexpectedly bad. IMO a few things stand out about the numbers:

- Plenty of targets, so that is good.

- But an unimpressive catch percentage, particularly since Leinart's rookie year. I'm sure that is on Leinart and not Fitz, based on what we know about Fitz's hands and high skill level.

- Very low on TDs. Leinart had 35 red zone passing attempts in 2006, and Fitz caught 5 of them for TDs. Since then, Leinart only had 11 red zone passing attempts, with Fitz catching 1 for a TD. This doesn't look great for Fitz. For one thing, Leinart will likely be less effective at getting the team into the red zone... and then he and Fitz will have to improve on these numbers or Fitz won't be getting double digit TDs.

Some people have dissected the numbers as Warner vs. others (and without generally separating the split time games), but I think it more appropriate to look at it like Leinart vs. others, since he is currently Fitz's QB. So that's what I've done here. If you think Anderson will beat out Leinart, or will replace Leinart at some point, then perhaps these numbers become a bit less relevant. But they are the most relevant numbers available at this point IMO.

Fitz's numbers with Leinart have been significantly worse than they have been with other QBs.

 

[Clifford]

Faust, I really couldn't believe that when I read it. He's bragging while admitting he just made a major error. I don't see how that's confidence. Seems more like pure stupidity.

 

[Tau837]

Another old post on this:

In the dynasty rankings thread, SSOG had a conversation about this and I reasoned out what seems to be a reasonable expectation for targets in the short term. I think Fitz is likely to get around the same number of targets he got in 2009 in the next year or two (too hard to project further than that). That fits the bigger piece of the smaller pie scenario.So the real question is how much his productivity per target drops. Per my post above, with Leinart, Fitz has averaged approximately 1 point per target so far in his career (non PPR FBG scoring). With all other QBs combined, he averaged 1.44 points per target. One can quibble with the methodology I used for separating games, but IMO it is clear that we should expect his productivity to drop. I guess that's not exactly earth shattering considering the move from Warner to Leinart... but if it was to drop by as much as 1.44 to 1, it could be enough to put him near the bottom of the top 20. (Last year it would have put him around 17th).Perhaps Leinart will improve with maturity and more practice time as the starter... perhaps Fitz is still improving or has improved since some of those previous games with Leinart... but IMO he is far from the lock to finish top 10 that others think he is. To me, this makes him overrated at this time.

Talking redrafts:I think Fitz was overrated before the injury. Not sure how his ADP will be affected now, so I'm not sure if he will remain overrated, though judging by many of the comments in this thread, he will.That said, I don't see passing on him in the 4th round. And passing on him in the 3rd is not a given... IMO it would depend on who else is available, scoring system, etc. Personally I would not draft him in the first two rounds.

 

[pantherclub]

Another old post on this:

In the dynasty rankings thread, SSOG had a conversation about this and I reasoned out what seems to be a reasonable expectation for targets in the short term. I think Fitz is likely to get around the same number of targets he got in 2009 in the next year or two (too hard to project further than that). That fits the bigger piece of the smaller pie scenario.So the real question is how much his productivity per target drops. Per my post above, with Leinart, Fitz has averaged approximately 1 point per target so far in his career (non PPR FBG scoring). With all other QBs combined, he averaged 1.44 points per target. One can quibble with the methodology I used for separating games, but IMO it is clear that we should expect his productivity to drop. I guess that's not exactly earth shattering considering the move from Warner to Leinart... but if it was to drop by as much as 1.44 to 1, it could be enough to put him near the bottom of the top 20. (Last year it would have put him around 17th).Perhaps Leinart will improve with maturity and more practice time as the starter... perhaps Fitz is still improving or has improved since some of those previous games with Leinart... but IMO he is far from the lock to finish top 10 that others think he is. To me, this makes him overrated at this time.

Talking redrafts:I think Fitz was overrated before the injury. Not sure how his ADP will be affected now, so I'm not sure if he will remain overrated, though judging by many of the comments in this thread, he will.That said, I don't see passing on him in the 4th round. And passing on him in the 3rd is not a given... IMO it would depend on who else is available, scoring system, etc. Personally I would not draft him in the first two rounds.

whats the best site for mocks from the past couple days?

 

[Touchdown There]

Fitz is my bust pick of the year. Still one heck of a football player. The sooner Derek Anderson starts slinging him the ball, the better his numbers will be this season.

 

[joffer]

i'd probably take him at the 2/3 turn

 

[Abrantes]

Stop the insanity.

 

[kevzilla]

I took him at 2.09 in Survivor League 8. He was the WR6. I am comfortable with my decision.

 

[Symbius]

Drafting in a 14 team league, must start 2 RB and 2 WR's - so there should be a scramble for both in the first few rounds.

I pick 13th and I know Fitz is going to be there most likely with pick 1.13 and 2.16 and going WR most likely will be my best play.

It frightens me to have a bust that high especially with 14 teams, the Risk vs. Reward just isn't there with Fitz.

I have to agree with the OP.

Going to avoid Fitz at all costs unless something whacky happens and he's sitting there in the 5th round.

 

[pantherclub]

Fitz is my bust pick of the year. Still one heck of a football player. The sooner Derek Anderson starts slinging him the ball, the better his numbers will be this season.

Fitz was a bust last year?

 

[kutta]

I agree 100% with MOP. I have been on record saying that I think Leinart will last four games max and be pulled, assuming he even starts the season. The guy is horrible and consistently hangs his WR's out to dry. He did it last year to Fitz on a play near the end of the year, and again to Fitz in preseason. He has no arm, no swagger, and no rhythm, and is not a good game manager. The Cards will be lucky to win six games this year.

For those saying it will have no effect on Fitz, wtf? The Cards have lost one of the best WRs in the NFL in Boldin who really opened up the field for Fitz. They have lost a HOF QB who was one of, if not the, most accurate passers in NFL history. Their offensive line has not improved much if at all in the off season, and their new QB has no strength in his arm. This all adds up to the Cards playing conservative on offense and trying to run much more than in the past. Fitz will be doubled on every play, and Leinart is not nearly accurate enough to get him the ball in tight spots. Leinart also does not have the arm strength to get the ball over the defense if Fitz beats his guy. It all adds up to a rough season for Fitz.

I will not be drafting Fitz this year.

 

[sbonomo]

I see where you guys are coming from. That said, Fitz is one of the top 10 players in the NFL. I think he is going to get his. He is not the type of WR that needs to be wide open to do damage. The offensive line is above average, and that is all he really needs. Not only that, but Warner was not a HOF based on his play last year. His deep ball left plenty to be desired.

I can see passing on him in the 1st round. But 2nd?! After guys like Jennings, WHite, Johnson?! Really? Be my guest. But Jennings isn't close to the football player that Fitz is and had a down year, while his QB went insane racking up number. White needs Ryan to step it up big time, and that is far from a sure things. Calvin Johnson? Really? How much better is Stafford than Leinart? We don't know, and it won't be much, if any. Fitz is just a better football player than Calvin is at this point, and most likely ever will be. The Cards offense will still be able to move the ball better than the Lions too.

If you guys are going to draft WRs based on their QBs, you are in for a down year. FBG did a study on top WRs and it was surprising how many top 10 WRs did NOT have top 10 QBs.

Again, be my guest. I hope you play in a few of my leauges.

Have you ever actually watched a Cards game? Out line is WAY below average at best....Warner made them look ok because he could get rid of the ball quickly. I think that Larry is going to have a down year because Leinert belongs in the arena league not the NFL but should remain in the top 10..

 

[Iwannabeacowboybaby!]

I agree 100% with MOP. I have been on record saying that I think Leinart will last four games max and be pulled, assuming he even starts the season. The guy is horrible and consistently hangs his WR's out to dry. He did it last year to Fitz on a play near the end of the year, and again to Fitz in preseason. He has no arm, no swagger, and no rhythm, and is not a good game manager. The Cards will be lucky to win six games this year.For those saying it will have no effect on Fitz, wtf? The Cards have lost one of the best WRs in the NFL in Boldin who really opened up the field for Fitz. They have lost a HOF QB who was one of, if not the, most accurate passers in NFL history. Their offensive line has not improved much if at all in the off season, and their new QB has no strength in his arm. This all adds up to the Cards playing conservative on offense and trying to run much more than in the past. Fitz will be doubled on every play, and Leinart is not nearly accurate enough to get him the ball in tight spots. Leinart also does not have the arm strength to get the ball over the defense if Fitz beats his guy. It all adds up to a rough season for Fitz.I will not be drafting Fitz this year.

I respect your thoughts, especially on the Cards. David Dodds updated today in PPR has him ranked as his Wr2 still. I also respect his knowledge. I know you can't answer for him but I'm wondering why you guys are so far off from each other. He's got him as WR2, a guy to draft in your top 10 draft and you, an Arizona homer ( I mean that as a compliment) are saying I'm not drafting him this year, period.I'm somewhere in the middle of that, not 100 percent sure where. I'm definately not on Leinart, I think he's a bum but I've seen some WR's still put up solid numbers. The key can be the offensive line, if Leinart or whomever has time to let the routes progress, he can still put up decent numbers. I also noted your analysis on him has nothing to do with his recent injury, you just flat out don't like him this year anywhere near his ADP due to his situation.

 

[Tau837]

Although I think Fitz is overrated, I think if he doesn't miss time he is likely to get 130+ targets. While I expect him to do less with his targets without Warner, it's hard for me to envision him being an actual bust with that many targets. (Note: not living up to draft pick is not the same as bust IMO.)

 

[cmv5]

I agree 100% with MOP. I have been on record saying that I think Leinart will last four games max and be pulled, assuming he even starts the season. The guy is horrible and consistently hangs his WR's out to dry. He did it last year to Fitz on a play near the end of the year, and again to Fitz in preseason. He has no arm, no swagger, and no rhythm, and is not a good game manager. The Cards will be lucky to win six games this year.

For those saying it will have no effect on Fitz, wtf? The Cards have lost one of the best WRs in the NFL in Boldin who really opened up the field for Fitz. They have lost a HOF QB who was one of, if not the, most accurate passers in NFL history. Their offensive line has not improved much if at all in the off season, and their new QB has no strength in his arm. This all adds up to the Cards playing conservative on offense and trying to run much more than in the past. Fitz will be doubled on every play, and Leinart is not nearly accurate enough to get him the ball in tight spots. Leinart also does not have the arm strength to get the ball over the defense if Fitz beats his guy. It all adds up to a rough season for Fitz.

I will not be drafting Fitz this year.

How many times is this false point going to be brought up? Fitzgerald has better numbers when Boldin hasn't played. I am not saying that will necessarily continue but so far, Fitzgerald has done better without him in.

People have short term memories. Calvin Johnson's best season was with Kitna, Orlovsky and a signed off the street Culpepper (I dare you to tell me they had better weapons and QB). Roddy White put up 1202 yard in 2007 with Harrington, Leftwich and Redman as his QB. Andre Johnson put up two seasons of over 1100 yards with David Carr as his QB. Need I go on?

If that somehow is not enough for you, then remember Fitzgerald in the playoffs. I have a hard time seeing any other WR in the league doing what he did.

 

[footballsavvy]

Dammit, make this thread go away. I'm trying to unload Breaston and you're ruining my chances.

 

[kutta]

I agree 100% with MOP. I have been on record saying that I think Leinart will last four games max and be pulled, assuming he even starts the season. The guy is horrible and consistently hangs his WR's out to dry. He did it last year to Fitz on a play near the end of the year, and again to Fitz in preseason. He has no arm, no swagger, and no rhythm, and is not a good game manager. The Cards will be lucky to win six games this year.

For those saying it will have no effect on Fitz, wtf? The Cards have lost one of the best WRs in the NFL in Boldin who really opened up the field for Fitz. They have lost a HOF QB who was one of, if not the, most accurate passers in NFL history. Their offensive line has not improved much if at all in the off season, and their new QB has no strength in his arm. This all adds up to the Cards playing conservative on offense and trying to run much more than in the past. Fitz will be doubled on every play, and Leinart is not nearly accurate enough to get him the ball in tight spots. Leinart also does not have the arm strength to get the ball over the defense if Fitz beats his guy. It all adds up to a rough season for Fitz.

I will not be drafting Fitz this year.

How many times is this false point going to be brought up? Fitzgerald has better numbers when Boldin hasn't played. I am not saying that will necessarily continue but so far, Fitzgerald has done better without him in.

People have short term memories. Calvin Johnson's best season was with Kitna, Orlovsky and a signed off the street Culpepper (I dare you to tell me they had better weapons and QB). Roddy White put up 1202 yard in 2007 with Harrington, Leftwich and Redman as his QB. Andre Johnson put up two seasons of over 1100 yards with David Carr as his QB. Need I go on?

If that somehow is not enough for you, then remember Fitzgerald in the playoffs. I have a hard time seeing any other WR in the league doing what he did.

There is a BIG difference between Boldin missing a game here and there, with Warner at QB, and on a team with a mindset that they are only going to throw the ball - no matter what, and a team with Matt Leinart at QB, a coach who is on record saying they want to run the ball more and become more "run oriented," and defenses that have a full off-season to game plan for only one pro-bowl WR instead of two. Big difference.Look, I'm not saying Fitz is not an amazing talent. He is. He is incredible, and I think he is the best WR in the league. If the team was coming back the same as last year, I'd say he is easily a top 5 WR, probably 2 or 3. But to say that all these changes are not going to affect him at all is a bit absurd. I still say he finishes somewhere between the 10-15 range for WR's. But there is no way I will draft him because he will be taken well before that range.

Fitz finished as the 5th best FF WR last year, in both PPR and non-PPR leagues. Why is it such a stretch to say he will drop some because of his situation. In my non-PPR league, Fitz was the 5th WR with 187 FF points. Vincent Jackson was 10 at 171. Santonio Holmes was 15 at 153. Is it so unreasonable to expect that Fitz will lose 16-35 points over the course of the year? That's 1-2 FF points per game. I think that is a perfectly reasonable expectation.

And for the record, I would take Kitna, Orlovsky, and Culpepper over Leinart.

 

[Faust]

Faust, I really couldn't believe that when I read it. He's bragging while admitting he just made a major error. I don't see how that's confidence. Seems more like pure stupidity.

Yeah, I would love to see Leinart try to brag after doing the same play in a regular season game situation, dropping a bomb on the defense that they see coming a mile away that exposes Fitz to a huge hit...he should be embarrassed that he exposed his WR that way!

 

[kutta]

I agree 100% with MOP. I have been on record saying that I think Leinart will last four games max and be pulled, assuming he even starts the season. The guy is horrible and consistently hangs his WR's out to dry. He did it last year to Fitz on a play near the end of the year, and again to Fitz in preseason. He has no arm, no swagger, and no rhythm, and is not a good game manager. The Cards will be lucky to win six games this year.For those saying it will have no effect on Fitz, wtf? The Cards have lost one of the best WRs in the NFL in Boldin who really opened up the field for Fitz. They have lost a HOF QB who was one of, if not the, most accurate passers in NFL history. Their offensive line has not improved much if at all in the off season, and their new QB has no strength in his arm. This all adds up to the Cards playing conservative on offense and trying to run much more than in the past. Fitz will be doubled on every play, and Leinart is not nearly accurate enough to get him the ball in tight spots. Leinart also does not have the arm strength to get the ball over the defense if Fitz beats his guy. It all adds up to a rough season for Fitz.I will not be drafting Fitz this year.

I respect your thoughts, especially on the Cards. David Dodds updated today in PPR has him ranked as his Wr2 still. I also respect his knowledge. I know you can't answer for him but I'm wondering why you guys are so far off from each other. He's got him as WR2, a guy to draft in your top 10 draft and you, an Arizona homer ( I mean that as a compliment) are saying I'm not drafting him this year, period.I'm somewhere in the middle of that, not 100 percent sure where. I'm definately not on Leinart, I think he's a bum but I've seen some WR's still put up solid numbers. The key can be the offensive line, if Leinart or whomever has time to let the routes progress, he can still put up decent numbers. I also noted your analysis on him has nothing to do with his recent injury, you just flat out don't like him this year anywhere near his ADP due to his situation.

I also like Dodds' projections but I think he is just wrong here. There are just too many negatives surrounding Fitz's situation this year for me to take him at his ADP. I think there are a lot of guys who's situation haven't changed at all, and maybe have gotten better. Moss, AJ, Wayne, White, Calvin, Austin, Colston, Jennings, and Rice (if Favre comes back) are all guys in very similar situations as last year. So there's nine guys right away that I think are safer picks (injuries aside). DeSean and Marshall have both changed situations, but I actually like their new surroundings more.Don't get me wrong. I am NOT saying I would not draft Fitz if he fell to the late third round. He would be a good value there, but I am certain he will not fall that far. I am just saying that there are picks that are much safer, including RB's and QB's that are drafted around Fitz's ADP that I am more comfortable with and come with much less risk. 1.12 (Fitz ADP) is much too high for me to draft a WR with as many question marks as Fitz has this year, and I'd rather take a guy with less question marks at the 1-2 turn and grab a WR in the 3rd that is in a more stable position.

 

[Hipple Long Ware & Peete]

Like anything, it's about value. To say you won't take LFitz int he 4th is a bit laughable though, unless it was hyperbole. Yes, the passing attack in AZ will suffer without Warner at the Helm - however, a great WR's numbers, imo, are not as impacted by this unless you have a really good running game, because as someone else noted, they will be coming from behind and who else do they have to throw it to that is even close to LFitz? He will get his, health allowing.Now, do you take a chance on him in the late first or early second? For the reasons you give and others, I won't. But if it's the third round, especially mid third round plus, it would be very, very hard for someone that if healthy will be a top 5 WR by his sheer talent and the number of looks he will receive.

even if avail in the 4th there are other players i see grading out in the 4th and 5th i'd rather draft. leinert scares the beejeesuz outof me.

 

[Hipple Long Ware & Peete]

I see where you guys are coming from. That said, Fitz is one of the top 10 players in the NFL. I think he is going to get his. He is not the type of WR that needs to be wide open to do damage. The offensive line is above average, and that is all he really needs. Not only that, but Warner was not a HOF based on his play last year. His deep ball left plenty to be desired. I can see passing on him in the 1st round. But 2nd?! After guys like Jennings, WHite, Johnson?! Really? Be my guest. But Jennings isn't close to the football player that Fitz is and had a down year, while his QB went insane racking up number. White needs Ryan to step it up big time, and that is far from a sure things. Calvin Johnson? Really? How much better is Stafford than Leinart? We don't know, and it won't be much, if any. Fitz is just a better football player than Calvin is at this point, and most likely ever will be. The Cards offense will still be able to move the ball better than the Lions too.If you guys are going to draft WRs based on their QBs, you are in for a down year. FBG did a study on top WRs and it was surprising how many top 10 WRs did NOT have top 10 QBs.Again, be my guest. I hope you play in a few of my leauges.

That said based on value I prolly would take him in the 4th. And trade him to the guy who wants him the worst.

 

[cjack]

I agree 100% with MOP. I have been on record saying that I think Leinart will last four games max and be pulled, assuming he even starts the season. The guy is horrible and consistently hangs his WR's out to dry. He did it last year to Fitz on a play near the end of the year, and again to Fitz in preseason. He has no arm, no swagger, and no rhythm, and is not a good game manager. The Cards will be lucky to win six games this year.

For those saying it will have no effect on Fitz, wtf? The Cards have lost one of the best WRs in the NFL in Boldin who really opened up the field for Fitz. They have lost a HOF QB who was one of, if not the, most accurate passers in NFL history. Their offensive line has not improved much if at all in the off season, and their new QB has no strength in his arm. This all adds up to the Cards playing conservative on offense and trying to run much more than in the past. Fitz will be doubled on every play, and Leinart is not nearly accurate enough to get him the ball in tight spots. Leinart also does not have the arm strength to get the ball over the defense if Fitz beats his guy. It all adds up to a rough season for Fitz.

I will not be drafting Fitz this year.

How many times is this false point going to be brought up? Fitzgerald has better numbers when Boldin hasn't played. I am not saying that will necessarily continue but so far, Fitzgerald has done better without him in.

People have short term memories. Calvin Johnson's best season was with Kitna, Orlovsky and a signed off the street Culpepper (I dare you to tell me they had better weapons and QB). Roddy White put up 1202 yard in 2007 with Harrington, Leftwich and Redman as his QB. Andre Johnson put up two seasons of over 1100 yards with David Carr as his QB. Need I go on?

If that somehow is not enough for you, then remember Fitzgerald in the playoffs. I have a hard time seeing any other WR in the league doing what he did.

There is a BIG difference between Boldin missing a game here and there, with Warner at QB, and on a team with a mindset that they are only going to throw the ball - no matter what, and a team with Matt Leinart at QB, a coach who is on record saying they want to run the ball more and become more "run oriented," and defenses that have a full off-season to game plan for only one pro-bowl WR instead of two. Big difference.Look, I'm not saying Fitz is not an amazing talent. He is. He is incredible, and I think he is the best WR in the league. If the team was coming back the same as last year, I'd say he is easily a top 5 WR, probably 2 or 3. But to say that all these changes are not going to affect him at all is a bit absurd. I still say he finishes somewhere between the 10-15 range for WR's. But there is no way I will draft him because he will be taken well before that range.

Fitz finished as the 5th best FF WR last year, in both PPR and non-PPR leagues. Why is it such a stretch to say he will drop some because of his situation. In my non-PPR league, Fitz was the 5th WR with 187 FF points. Vernon Jackson was 10 at 171. Santonio Holmes was 15 at 153. Is it so unreasonable to expect that Fitz will lose 16-35 points over the course of the year? That's 1-2 FF points per game. I think that is a perfectly reasonable expectation.

And for the record, I would take Kitna, Orlovsky, and Culpepper over Leinart.

Vernon Jackson...is he the new San Diego 49er's receiver/TE hybrid?

 

[Hipple Long Ware & Peete]

I see where you guys are coming from. That said, Fitz is one of the top 10 players in the NFL. I think he is going to get his. He is not the type of WR that needs to be wide open to do damage. The offensive line is above average, and that is all he really needs. Not only that, but Warner was not a HOF based on his play last year. His deep ball left plenty to be desired.

I can see passing on him in the 1st round. But 2nd?! After guys like Jennings, WHite, Johnson?! Really? Be my guest. But Jennings isn't close to the football player that Fitz is and had a down year, while his QB went insane racking up number. White needs Ryan to step it up big time, and that is far from a sure things. Calvin Johnson? Really? How much better is Stafford than Leinart? We don't know, and it won't be much, if any. Fitz is just a better football player than Calvin is at this point, and most likely ever will be. The Cards offense will still be able to move the ball better than the Lions too.

If you guys are going to draft WRs based on their QBs, you are in for a down year. FBG did a study on top WRs and it was surprising how many top 10 WRs did NOT have top 10 QBs.

Again, be my guest. I hope you play in a few of my leauges.

FWIW here is the current 4th round in the current top 300

36 31 -5 QB5 Matt Schaub HOU/7

37 24 -13 QB6 Tom Brady NE/5

38 36 -2 RB20 Jonathan Stewart CAR/6

39 25 -14 WR13 DeSean Jackson PHI/8

40 40 0 WR14 Steve Smith CAR/6

41 43 2 TE1 Antonio Gates SD/10

42 66 24 WR15 Percy Harvin MIN/4

43 32 -11 RB21 Knowshon Moreno DEN/9

44 79 35 WR16 Santana Moss WAS/9

45 48 3 RB22 Ronnie Brown MIA/5

46 39 -7 TE2 Dallas Clark IND/7

47 59 12 WR17 Hines Ward PIT/5

48 41 -7 WR18 Sidney Rice MIN/4

I think it is entirely possible (though phantom injury etc) that all players on this list outperform him. Bold are the ones i'd rather have than LF. Italics are borderline, but even them I could see outpointing LF this year.

 

[PahtyTom]

wow I had no idea so many people were this down on Fitz...maybe I can actually get him on my team this year now that he is undervalued

 

[kutta]

I see where you guys are coming from. That said, Fitz is one of the top 10 players in the NFL. I think he is going to get his. He is not the type of WR that needs to be wide open to do damage. The offensive line is above average, and that is all he really needs. Not only that, but Warner was not a HOF based on his play last year. His deep ball left plenty to be desired. I can see passing on him in the 1st round. But 2nd?! After guys like Jennings, WHite, Johnson?! Really? Be my guest. But Jennings isn't close to the football player that Fitz is and had a down year, while his QB went insane racking up number. White needs Ryan to step it up big time, and that is far from a sure things. Calvin Johnson? Really? How much better is Stafford than Leinart? We don't know, and it won't be much, if any. Fitz is just a better football player than Calvin is at this point, and most likely ever will be. The Cards offense will still be able to move the ball better than the Lions too.If you guys are going to draft WRs based on their QBs, you are in for a down year. FBG did a study on top WRs and it was surprising how many top 10 WRs did NOT have top 10 QBs.Again, be my guest. I hope you play in a few of my leauges.

I am sure there have been all kinds of studies done. Here's one I just did. 2009 top 16 WR's in PPR league:1. Andre Johnson - Schaub2. Randy Moss - Brady3. Reggie Wayne - Manning4. Wes Welker - Brady5. Larry Fitzgerald - Warner6. Miles Austin - Romo7. Brandon Marshal - Orton8. Steve Smith - E. Manning9. Roddy White - Ryan10. DeSean Jackson - McNabb11. Sidney Rice - Favre12. Hines Ward - Rothlisberger13. Vincent Jackson - Rivers14. Chad Ochocinco - Palmer15. Santonio Holmes - Rothlisberger16. Marques Colston - BreesDo you notice a pattern?

 

[Hipple Long Ware & Peete]

I agree 100% with MOP. I have been on record saying that I think Leinart will last four games max and be pulled, assuming he even starts the season. The guy is horrible and consistently hangs his WR's out to dry. He did it last year to Fitz on a play near the end of the year, and again to Fitz in preseason. He has no arm, no swagger, and no rhythm, and is not a good game manager. The Cards will be lucky to win six games this year.For those saying it will have no effect on Fitz, wtf? The Cards have lost one of the best WRs in the NFL in Boldin who really opened up the field for Fitz. They have lost a HOF QB who was one of, if not the, most accurate passers in NFL history. Their offensive line has not improved much if at all in the off season, and their new QB has no strength in his arm. This all adds up to the Cards playing conservative on offense and trying to run much more than in the past. Fitz will be doubled on every play, and Leinart is not nearly accurate enough to get him the ball in tight spots. Leinart also does not have the arm strength to get the ball over the defense if Fitz beats his guy. It all adds up to a rough season for Fitz.I will not be drafting Fitz this year.

 

[kutta]

I agree 100% with MOP. I have been on record saying that I think Leinart will last four games max and be pulled, assuming he even starts the season. The guy is horrible and consistently hangs his WR's out to dry. He did it last year to Fitz on a play near the end of the year, and again to Fitz in preseason. He has no arm, no swagger, and no rhythm, and is not a good game manager. The Cards will be lucky to win six games this year.

For those saying it will have no effect on Fitz, wtf? The Cards have lost one of the best WRs in the NFL in Boldin who really opened up the field for Fitz. They have lost a HOF QB who was one of, if not the, most accurate passers in NFL history. Their offensive line has not improved much if at all in the off season, and their new QB has no strength in his arm. This all adds up to the Cards playing conservative on offense and trying to run much more than in the past. Fitz will be doubled on every play, and Leinart is not nearly accurate enough to get him the ball in tight spots. Leinart also does not have the arm strength to get the ball over the defense if Fitz beats his guy. It all adds up to a rough season for Fitz.

I will not be drafting Fitz this year.

How many times is this false point going to be brought up? Fitzgerald has better numbers when Boldin hasn't played. I am not saying that will necessarily continue but so far, Fitzgerald has done better without him in.

People have short term memories. Calvin Johnson's best season was with Kitna, Orlovsky and a signed off the street Culpepper (I dare you to tell me they had better weapons and QB). Roddy White put up 1202 yard in 2007 with Harrington, Leftwich and Redman as his QB. Andre Johnson put up two seasons of over 1100 yards with David Carr as his QB. Need I go on?

If that somehow is not enough for you, then remember Fitzgerald in the playoffs. I have a hard time seeing any other WR in the league doing what he did.

There is a BIG difference between Boldin missing a game here and there, with Warner at QB, and on a team with a mindset that they are only going to throw the ball - no matter what, and a team with Matt Leinart at QB, a coach who is on record saying they want to run the ball more and become more "run oriented," and defenses that have a full off-season to game plan for only one pro-bowl WR instead of two. Big difference.Look, I'm not saying Fitz is not an amazing talent. He is. He is incredible, and I think he is the best WR in the league. If the team was coming back the same as last year, I'd say he is easily a top 5 WR, probably 2 or 3. But to say that all these changes are not going to affect him at all is a bit absurd. I still say he finishes somewhere between the 10-15 range for WR's. But there is no way I will draft him because he will be taken well before that range.

Fitz finished as the 5th best FF WR last year, in both PPR and non-PPR leagues. Why is it such a stretch to say he will drop some because of his situation. In my non-PPR league, Fitz was the 5th WR with 187 FF points. Vernon Jackson was 10 at 171. Santonio Holmes was 15 at 153. Is it so unreasonable to expect that Fitz will lose 16-35 points over the course of the year? That's 1-2 FF points per game. I think that is a perfectly reasonable expectation.

And for the record, I would take Kitna, Orlovsky, and Culpepper over Leinart.

Vernon Jackson...is he the new San Diego 49er's receiver/TE hybrid?

Oops. Thanks.

 

[Go deep]

I have been saying the same thing about Fitz since Warner retired. There are at keast 10 WR's i would take over Fitz in redrfta leagues this year. In no paerticuar order"

AJ

Austin

Jennings

White

CJ

Rice

DJax

Moss

Wayne

Marshall

Actually, i would bet Dwayne Bowe ends up with just as many, if not more fantasy points than Fitz in 2010. Of course i would not draft him in front of Fitz, but, i think they both make good #2 WR's.

 

[chihawk]

Drafted last night, 14 teams, QB happy scoring, 0.5 pprI had 3 shots at Fitz and passed on all 3. I took the first two wideouts in Andre and Moss, then Roddy in the 3rd round. The next guy took good ol Fitz. So, I passed on him even as my WR3. I think he's about 8th or 9th for me this season, though dynasty he's still my #3 behind Andre and Roddy.

Not to just go on a offshoot, but your league must really have some uncommon WR scoring for you to end up with AJ, Moss, and then White in the third round of a 14 team league. I'm strongly considering drafting White in the early part of the 2nd in a 12 team league (PPR league).I am really going back and forth on Fitz, but there are question marks on all the top WRs (after AJ)....Moss is getting up there in age and they may starting spreading the ball around more to their young WRs. Reggie Wayne scares me more than Fitz. His decline during the second half of last season was not good for Wayne owners and they have some your WRs that are improving.Miles Austin had a great year last year and his production wasn't even spanning 16 games. The addition of Bryant and returned health to Felix (unless he gets injured again) will take away some from his targets.Calvin Johnson is another option, but as has been mentioned is Detroit and Stafford a much safer bet than Arizona and Leinart?At this point I'm not sure where to grade Fitz which makes my draft position of having the 9th pick in the 12-team PPR league very tough. I would pick Moss there, but not sure that he will last.

 

[Frenchy Fuqua]

Fitz's productivity lessened with Leinart by about .6 catches a game/1 TD per year...nothing.

This is false. This has been discussed in numerous threads throughout the offseason, and I actually broke down Fitz's splits with Leinart in detail:

OK, because of the fact that Leinart split time in multiple games, I actually went through the game logs and determined what Fitz's performance has been while playing with Leinart. Here is the data.

Fitz playing with Leinart from 2006-2009:

- Approximately 59.5 quarters of play

- 119 targets, 70 receptions, 982 receiving yards (14.0 ypr), 5 TDs

- Scaling up to 16 games (64 quarters) yields: 128 targets, 75 receptions, 1056 receiving yards, 5.4 TDs

SSOG has suggested that we shouldn't count Leinart's rookie season, so here are the numbers for Fitz playing with Leinart from 2007-2009:

- Approximately 26.5 quarters of play

- 59 targets, 29 receptions, 409 receiving yards (14.1 ypr), 1 TD

- Scaling up to 16 games (64 quarters) yields: 142 targets, 70 receptions, 988 receiving yards, 2.4 TDs

So it turns out that it doesn't help Fitz's numbers to eliminate Leinart's rookie season. I suspect that the 5 game stretch SSOG earlier referred to as 2005 was really the first 5 games of 2007, during which Fitz had 34/448/1... but only 15/212/0 of that was from Leinart, so counting his full production for those games skewed the numbers so they looked better after Leinart's rookie season.

However, to be fair, Fitz's playing time with Leinart after Leinart's rookie year was sporadic, with plenty of mopup time and other short stints, which might distort the numbers. They played 3 full games together since Leinart's rookie year in which Leinart played the entire game at QB. Here are Fitz's numbers in those games:

- 3 games

- 27 targets, 14 receptions, 141 receiving yards (10.1 ypr), 0 TDs

- Scaling up to 16 games yields: 144 targets, 75 receptions, 752 receiving yards, 0 TDs

It just keeps getting worse...

Now, Leinart could be better with more experience and an entire offseason, training camp, and preseason working as the #1 QB. (If that holds true.) But those numbers sure are unexpectedly bad. IMO a few things stand out about the numbers:

- Plenty of targets, so that is good.

- But an unimpressive catch percentage, particularly since Leinart's rookie year. I'm sure that is on Leinart and not Fitz, based on what we know about Fitz's hands and high skill level.

- Very low on TDs. Leinart had 35 red zone passing attempts in 2006, and Fitz caught 5 of them for TDs. Since then, Leinart only had 11 red zone passing attempts, with Fitz catching 1 for a TD. This doesn't look great for Fitz. For one thing, Leinart will likely be less effective at getting the team into the red zone... and then he and Fitz will have to improve on these numbers or Fitz won't be getting double digit TDs.

Some people have dissected the numbers as Warner vs. others (and without generally separating the split time games), but I think it more appropriate to look at it like Leinart vs. others, since he is currently Fitz's QB. So that's what I've done here. If you think Anderson will beat out Leinart, or will replace Leinart at some point, then perhaps these numbers become a bit less relevant. But they are the most relevant numbers available at this point IMO.

Fitz's numbers with Leinart have been significantly worse than they have been with other QBs.

What were Leinart's numbers with Boldin? Based on your Leinart/Fitz research I'd guess that Leinart favored Boldin. Now that he's gone I think it's reasonable to speculate that Leinart will lock on Fitz.

 

[cmv5]

I agree 100% with MOP. I have been on record saying that I think Leinart will last four games max and be pulled, assuming he even starts the season. The guy is horrible and consistently hangs his WR's out to dry. He did it last year to Fitz on a play near the end of the year, and again to Fitz in preseason. He has no arm, no swagger, and no rhythm, and is not a good game manager. The Cards will be lucky to win six games this year.

For those saying it will have no effect on Fitz, wtf? The Cards have lost one of the best WRs in the NFL in Boldin who really opened up the field for Fitz. They have lost a HOF QB who was one of, if not the, most accurate passers in NFL history. Their offensive line has not improved much if at all in the off season, and their new QB has no strength in his arm. This all adds up to the Cards playing conservative on offense and trying to run much more than in the past. Fitz will be doubled on every play, and Leinart is not nearly accurate enough to get him the ball in tight spots. Leinart also does not have the arm strength to get the ball over the defense if Fitz beats his guy. It all adds up to a rough season for Fitz.

I will not be drafting Fitz this year.

How many times is this false point going to be brought up? Fitzgerald has better numbers when Boldin hasn't played. I am not saying that will necessarily continue but so far, Fitzgerald has done better without him in.

People have short term memories. Calvin Johnson's best season was with Kitna, Orlovsky and a signed off the street Culpepper (I dare you to tell me they had better weapons and QB). Roddy White put up 1202 yard in 2007 with Harrington, Leftwich and Redman as his QB. Andre Johnson put up two seasons of over 1100 yards with David Carr as his QB. Need I go on?

If that somehow is not enough for you, then remember Fitzgerald in the playoffs. I have a hard time seeing any other WR in the league doing what he did.

There is a BIG difference between Boldin missing a game here and there, with Warner at QB, and on a team with a mindset that they are only going to throw the ball - no matter what, and a team with Matt Leinart at QB, a coach who is on record saying they want to run the ball more and become more "run oriented," and defenses that have a full off-season to game plan for only one pro-bowl WR instead of two. Big difference.

Look, I'm not saying Fitz is not an amazing talent. He is. He is incredible, and I think he is the best WR in the league. If the team was coming back the same as last year, I'd say he is easily a top 5 WR, probably 2 or 3. But to say that all these changes are not going to affect him at all is a bit absurd. I still say he finishes somewhere between the 10-15 range for WR's. But there is no way I will draft him because he will be taken well before that range.

Fitz finished as the 5th best FF WR last year, in both PPR and non-PPR leagues. Why is it such a stretch to say he will drop some because of his situation. In my non-PPR league, Fitz was the 5th WR with 187 FF points. Vincent Jackson was 10 at 171. Santonio Holmes was 15 at 153. Is it so unreasonable to expect that Fitz will lose 16-35 points over the course of the year? That's 1-2 FF points per game. I think that is a perfectly reasonable expectation.

And for the record, I would take Kitna, Orlovsky, and Culpepper over Leinart.

My point is you are using an example that is wrong. Fitzgerald has been better with Boldin out. Second point, I just showed you quite a few current receivers that have been effective with bad quarterbacks. If Leinart is worse than the guys I mentioned, he will not be a starting quarterback.

I am not saying these things won't affect him. But there are other things that could affect Fitzgerald's numbers positively. I don't expect any qb that Arizona trots out there to be able to see the field like Warner, this leads to less experienced Qbs to throw to their number one. I expect that to be the case with Leinart. If they are able to run the ball then Fitz has less pressure. If the offense is terrible then they are playing catch up and throwing the ball more, etc.